Corn
Price action: March corn plunged 13 1/2 cents to $4.64 3/4, marking the lowest close since Jan. 13.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures faced notable pressure with a firmer U.S. dollar overpowering corrective gains in crude oil futures. Weekly export sales data was additional fodder for bears, with USDA pegging net sales for the week ended Feb. 20 at 794,700 MT, which were well short of analysts’ pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 1.65 MMT. Sales were down 45% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average.
Moreover, USDA’s annual Agriculture Outlook Forum kicked off this morning, with projections for the 2025-26 crop year. Based on the February WASDE Report, USDA projects 94.0 million planted corn acres, with production of 15.585 billion bushels and ending stocks at 1.965 million bu. A trendline yield of 181.0 bu. per acre was used to compile the production figure.
Meanwhile, economic uncertainties loom as President Trump contends tariffs for Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4. Corn futures have felt pressure as concern of retaliation from both countries could largely affect exports.
In Brazil, safrinha plantings are expected to remain slow as Mato Grosso and surrounding areas will receive frequent precip during the next two weeks keeping late season planting progress slow. World Weather maintains 20-25% of the crop will be planted in March, which could result in yield reductions due to limited soil moisture after the rainy season ends.
Technical analysis: May corn futures ended the session below the 40-day moving average of $4.92 1/4 and support at $4.82 3/4. Little support will serve until the 100- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.62 3/4 and $4.57 1/2. Conversely, bulls will need to edge back above the 40-day moving average, which is backed by resistance at $4.95 1/4, $4.98 1/4 and the 20- and 10-day moving averages, which have converged around $5.02 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 4 cents to $10.37 1/4, while May soymeal fell $2.30 to $300.20, each closing nearer the session low. May soyoil fell 24 points to 45.35 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans eventually slumped after spending much of the session in positive territory while the rest of the ag complex took a socking. USDA’s initial acreage projection of 84.0 million acres for 2025-26 lent some optimism to the soy complex, while a firmer U.S. dollar pressured commodities in general. Meanwhile, looming concern continues to hover across the marketplace amid the possibility of tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, while this morning’s export sales were so-so, offering little help. USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 410,900 MT for 2024-25, down 14% but 10% above the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of analysts’ pre-report range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
South American weather continues to be a mixed bag, with World Weather Inc. still forecasting flooding in Argentina during the coming week in northeastern La Pampa and northwest into central Buenos Aires. While net drying is expected from northern Argentina through Paraguay and most of southern Brazil and Minas Gerais in the next ten days. These areas will need greater rainfall soon after this dry period.
Technical analysis: March soybeans were pressured by the 10- and 40-day moving averages, each trading around $10.50, which are backed by the 20-day moving average of $10.58. Bears’ next objective is to score a close below the 100-day moving average of $10.32 and edge back below $10.00. Conversely, bulls will need to overcome the 200-day moving average of $10.69 3/4, which is backed by the Feb. 5 high of $10.92 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 17 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/2, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. May HRW wheat lost 13 1/4 cents to $5.85 1/4, nearer the daily low. May HRS fell 13 cents to $6.04 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today saw active selling pressure as risk aversion up-ticked after President Trump today said 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico will take effect next week, adding that he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports. That news and some better U.S. economic data released today pushed the U.S. dollar index to sharp gains, which was bearish for wheat. Solid losses in the corn futures market also spilled over into the wheat markets.
USDA also reported disappointing U.S. wheat export sales of 269,000 MT for 2024-25, down 50% from the previous week and down 46% from the four-week average. Sales were below market expectations.
USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum today projected U.S. wheat planted acreage of 47.0 million, with production of 1.926 billion bushels. Ending stocks were pegged at 826 million bushels. Average cash wheat price is forecast at $5.50.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat “is losing winter hardiness this week due to unusually warm temperatures. Some greening may occur in the southern states from Texas to the southeastern states by this time next week.” There will be no threatening cold for the next ten days and snow cover will be minimal in key production areas. Meantime, winter crops in southwestern Europe are likely greening up and spring planting should be under way in part of the Iberian Peninsula. Most other areas in Europe are still too cold for development, although warming will reduce winter hardiness. Russia has not encountered any winterkill so far this year and temperatures are expected to trend warmer, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.70 and then at today’s high of $5.80 1/4. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
The HRW bulls next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $6.15. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.75 and then at $5.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 27 points to 66.60 cents and nearer the daily low. Prices closed at a contract low close today.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw some fresh technical selling today as prices are closing in on the contract low scored in early January. A solid rally in the U.S. dollar index today was also bearish for cotton as well, since President Trump indicated today he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports. China is a big importer of U.S. cotton and may retaliate to new U.S. tariffs. A rally in the crude oil market today did somewhat mitigate the selling pressure in cotton.
Today’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum saw the confab forecast U.S. cotton planted area at 10 million acres, with harvested area at 8.41 million. It projected a 15.9% abandonment rate with a yield of 833 pounds per acre producing a crop of 14.6 million bales. Exports would rise to 13.0 million bales with domestic use of 1.7 million bales for carryover at 4.8 million bales and a season average farm price of 65 cents per pound. Cotton prices early this year signal the fiber is “less competitive this year compared with alternative crops,” said the Forum.
USDA today reported export sales of U.S. cotton totaled 166,900 running bales (RB) for 2024/2025 were down 47 percent from the previous week and down 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (43,000 RB), China (31,100 RB) and Turkey (26,700 RB). Shipments of 267,500 RB were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (80,300 RB), Pakistan (52,700 RB) and India (25,000 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said rain will be needed during the balance of winter and early spring in the U.S. southwestern desert region, southern California and both South and West Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well. The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with “portions” of the interior southeast. West Texas precipitation will remain insignificant into the first half of March. South Texas needs warmer temperatures and abundant precipitation to induce the best planting environment for March, but the warm up will occur without significant rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 69.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 66.25 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.35 cents and then at this week’s high of 68.19 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.65 cents and then at 66.25 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.