Corn
Price action: May corn rose 4 cents to $4.57 1/4, closing above the 200-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures spent the morning under pressure ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks Reports, which featured some not-so-bullish surprises for corn, but futures rallied following their release. A post-report rally in wheat combined with surging crude oil futures surely lent support, while a fading soy complex and a firmer U.S. dollar cast crimped short-covering efforts.
USDA estimated U.S. producers will plant 95.326 million acres of corn this spring, which was nearly a million acres above analysts’ average pre-report estimate and 5% above last year’s acreage. Meanwhile, March 1 stocks in all positions totaled 8.151 billion bu., which met analysts’ average pre-report expectation. The figure was down 2.4% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks accounted for 4.5 billion bu. (55.2%) of total stocks, while off-farm stocks totaled 3.651 billion bu. (44.8%) Implied disappearance in the second quarter of the 2024.25 marketing year is 3.92 billion bu., up 2.6% from the same quarter last year.
With this week comes President Trump’s April 2 retaliatory tariff measures, dubbed, ‘Liberation Day.’ While today’s government reports included a somewhat subdued response, the marketplace may garner a greater risk-on tone, though it will depend, of course, on Trump’s actions regarding tariffs.
Technical analysis: May corn ended the session back above the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $4.53 1/2, while resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $4.60 curbed momentum. A classic double bottom has seemingly formed on the daily bar chart, which may bode well for bulls this week. The camp continues to edge back above the March high of $4.77 1/2, while bears will look to breach last week’s low of $4.42 in, though interim support is layered at $4.50 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans sunk 8 1/4 cents to $10.14 3/4 and settled near session lows. May meal fell 80 cents to $292.7, near session lows. May bean oil fell 27 points to 44.89 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw relative strength going into today’s reports but quickly reversed lower, negating all of Friday’s gains. Losses despite acres coming in below expectations today were rather disappointing. Acres are estimated to be down in 12 of the 13 top producing states, with Ohio being the sole state to see higher soybean acres. USDA estimated soybean acres will fall to 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. That was below expectations of 83.762 million acres but within the range of estimates. It is well below our survey results at 85.0 million acres. Usually when our survey estimate is off, acres trend toward our estimate later in the year. Given normal planting, soy acres are likely not going to be below where USDA estimated them today.
Soybean stocks totaled 1.91 billion bushels as of March 1, just above the average trade estimate at 1.901 billion. Stocks were up from 1.845 billion bushels last year. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 876.5 million bu. are down 6.1% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 45.9% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.034 billion bu., 13.4% above year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 54.1% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of soybeans in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 1.19 billion bu., up 3% from the same quarter last year.
Markets attention quickly turned back to spring planting and South American weather following today’s reports. Brazil’s harvest continues at a rapid clip and is hitting the world market.
Technical analysis: May soybean futures reversed early session gains following today’s reports. Prices continue to languish near recent lows as neither bull nor bear holds a significant advantage. May beans failed to close above key 40-day moving average resistance at $10.24 which continues to prove a significant hurdle for bulls. Additional resistance now lies at $10.16 1/2 on the way. Support at the 10-day moving average at $10.12 3/4 limited the downside today and is reinforced by support at $10.09 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
May meal continues to struggle garnering much of a bullish footing as prices hang near contract lows. Bears continue to have full control of the technical advantage. Resistance stands at $296.1, the 10-day moving average, then the psychological $300.0 mark. Bulls are looking to hold support at $291.0 then the contract low of $289.7 on continued weakness.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 8 3/4 cents to $5.37, nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a contract low last Friday. May HRW wheat gained 5 1/4 cents to $5.57, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Key USDA data today leaned price-friendly for wheat futures, showing all U.S. wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, down 2 percent from 2024 and would be the second-lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down less than 1 percent from last year. Other spring wheat plantings for 2025 are estimated at 10.0 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024. Meantime, U.S. wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.237 billion bu., 22 million bu. above trade expectations and 13.6% above March 1 of last year. USDA also reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections were 435,644 MT, compared to 485,068 MT in the previous reporting week.
Risk-off trading attitudes in the general marketplace today likely somewhat limited gains in wheat futures, as did a firmer U.S. dollar index. Wednesday the U.S. is set to levy a bevy of trade tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on their U.S. imports.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will fall in most of Brazil outside of Bahia and northern Minas Gerais at one time or another during the next 10 days to two weeks. “The moisture alternating with periods of sunshine should be good for most late-season crops, although a few areas may become a little too wet, slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. Argentina will trend drier later this week into next week and that will be ideal for filling and maturing summer crops and supporting their harvest, said World Weather.
Key U.S. wheat-growing states will release weekly or monthly crop condition reports this afternoon, ahead of the start of the USDA NASS weekly crop progress reports that begin next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.39 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.23 1/2 and then at the contract low of $5.17 1/2.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.63 1/4 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 7 points to 66.83 cents, but marked a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures gapped lower overnight. Buyers failed to surface after USDA’s Prospective Planting Report near midday, which featured an estimate of 9.867 million cotton acres. The figure was 322,000 acres below the average pre-report estimate and 1.32 million acres (11.8%) below year-ago and at a 10-year low. Upland cotton areas are estimated at 9.71 million acres, down 12% from 2024, while American Pima area is estimated at 157,000 acres, down 24% from year-ago. Acres in Texas are expected to fall 456,000 acres to 5.527 million acres.
With confirmed lower cotton plantings, weather will be especially important as the planting season progresses. World Weather Inc. reports significant rain in South Texas and the Texas Coastal Plains last week induced some flooding, but the moisture should prove to be a boon for future planting, emergence and establishment, ending a long period of dryness. Though, some areas most impacted by the floods will have to be replanted. The Delta is expected to see wetter weather late this week and into the coming weekend but should see a favorable mix of weather until then and after that time. Some planting delay may occur in the northern Delta due to too much rain and local flooding, while the southeastern states will need a little more moisture.
Technical analysis: May cotton futures ultimately scored a high-range close as support at the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at 66.69 cents, 66.12 cents and 65.96 cents, held their ground. Initial resistance will continue to serve at 67.17 cents, with backing from 67.43 cents and 67.77 cents, which are backed by the 100-day moving average of 68.97 cents. Meanwhile, a move below initial support will find bears looking to the March low of 62.54 cents, though we believe the cotton market has near-term support.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.