USDA projects larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, unexpectedly boosts 2022-23 corn ending stocks

U.S. soybean stockpiles seen lower than expected at end of 2022-23.

FILE PHOTO: A combine harvests wheat in Corn, Oklahoma, U.S., June 12, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A combine harvests wheat in Corn, Oklahoma, U.S., June 12, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

USDA raised its estimate for the 2022-23 U.S. winter wheat crop to 1.182 billion bu., higher than analyst expectations, and hiked its forecast for new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks. The following is a summary of key numbers in USDA’s Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports for June:

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

1.485

1.400

Average est.

1.437

1.340

USDA May

1.440

1.360

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

205

280

Average est.

218

307

USDA May

235

310

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

655

627

Average est.

666

614

USDA May

655

619

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

3.40

2.90

Average est.

NA

3.11

USDA May

3.40

2.90

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

310.92

310.45

Average est.

308.57

305.10

USDA May

309.39

305.13

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

86.15

100.46

Average est.

84.82

99.77

USDA May

85.24

99.60

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

279.40

266.85

Average est.

279.83

267.18

USDA May

279.72

267.02

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

2022-23

USDA

82.95

82.77

Average est.

NA

82.90

USDA May

83.65

82.82

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

2021-22
June (May)

2022-23

June (May)

Argentina

53.00 (53.00)

55.00 (55.00)

Brazil

116.00 (116.00)

126.00 (126.00)

South Africa

16.30 (16.30)

17.30 (17.30)

Ukraine

42.13 (42.13)

25.00 (19.50)

China

272.55 (272.55)

271.00 (271.00)

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22
June (May)

2022-23

June (May)

Argentina

43.40 (42.00)

51.00 (51.00)

Brazil

126.00 (125.00)

149.00 (149.00)

Paraguay

4.20 (4.20)

10.00 (10.00)

Wheat – MMT

2021-22
June (May)

2022-23

June (May)

Argentina

22.15 (22.15)

20.00 (20.00)

Australia

36.30 (36.30)

30.00 (30.00)

Canada

21.65 (21.65)

33.00 (33.00)

EU

138.42 (138.42)

136.10 (136.50)

Russia

75.16 (75.16)

81.00 (80.00)

Ukraine

33.01 (33.01)

21.50 (21.50)

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Winter wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.182

Average est.

1.174

USDA May

1.174

USDA 2021

1.277

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

582

Average est.

585

USDA May

590

USDA 2021

749

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

358

Average est.

357

USDA May

354

USDA 2021

361

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

242

Average est.

232

USDA May

230

USDA 2021

167