Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents higher, wheat was 2 to 4 cents lower and cotton was 50 to 75 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower, winter wheat is 6 to 8 cents higher, spring wheat is 10 to 12 cents higher and cotton is around 50 points lower.
Prospective Plantings Report
Corn: 95.326 mil. acres; trade expected 94.361 mil. acres— compares to 90.594 mil. acres in 2024
Soybeans: 83.495 mil. acres; traders expected 83.762 mil. acres— compares to 87.050 mil. acres in 2024
All wheat: 45.350 mil. acres; traders expected 46.475 mil. acres— compares to 46.079 mil. acres in 2024
Other spring wheat: 10.02 mil. acres; traders expected 10.531 mil. acres— compares to 10.625 mil. acres in 2024
Durum: 2.015 mil. acres; traders expected 2.004 mil. acres— compares to 2.064 mil. acres in 2024
Cotton: 9.867 mil. acres; traders expected 10.189 mil. acres— compares to 11.182 mil. acres in 2024
Corn acres came above the average trade estimate but within the range of expectations. USDA came in above our acreage forecast as well. Soybeans were below our survey estimate and just below the trade average forecast. It is not uncommon for acres to become more in line with our survey numbers later in the year, meaning corn acres are not likely to grow and soybean acres not likely to shrink.
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, up 5 percent or 4.73 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States. Acres are up in nine of the 10 top producing states. Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to increase 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 11.1 million acres), 200,000 acres in Indiana (to 5.4 million acres), 600,000 acres in Iowa (to 13.5 million acres), 100,000 acres in Kansas (to 6.4 million acres), 50,000 acres in Michigan (to 2.3 million acres), 400,000 acres in Minnesota (to 8.6 million acres), 350,000 acres in Missouri (to 3.8 million acres), 550,000 acres in Nebraska (to 10.6 million acres), 250,000 acres in North Dakota (to 4.2 million acres), 400,000 acres in South Dakota (to 6.3 million acres) and 200,000 acres in Wisconsin (to 3.95 million acres). Acres acre expected to fall 150,000 acres in Ohio (to 3.25 million acres).
USDA estimates soybean acres will fall to 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimated states. Compared with year ago, soybean acres acre expected to fall 50,000 acres in Arkansas (to 3.0 million acres), 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.5 million acres), 100,000 acres in Indiana (to 5.7 million acres), 450,000 acres in Iowa (to 9.6 million acres), 230,000 acres in Kansas (to 4.3 million acres), 50,000 acre in Michigan (to 2.15 million acres), 400,000 acres in Minnesota (to 7.0 million acres), 200,000 acres in Missouri (to 5.7 million acres), 300,000 acres in Nebraska (to 5.0 million acres), 400,000 acres in North Dakota (to 6.2 million acres), 350,000 acres in South Dakota (to 5.1 million acres) and 250,000 acres in Wisconsin (to 1.9 million acres). Acres are expected to rise 50,000 acres in Ohio (to 5.1 million acres).
All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, down 2 percent from 2024. If realized, this represents the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down less than 1 percent from last year. Of this total, about 23.6 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.09 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.66 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 10.0 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024 estimate. Of this total, about 9.40 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2025 is expected to total 2.02 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous year.
All cotton planted area for 2025 is estimated at 9.87 million acres, down 12 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.71 million acres, down 12 percent from 2024. American Pima area is estimated at 157,000 acres, down 24 percent from 2024. Acres in Texas are expected to fall 456,000 acres to 5.527 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 8.151 billion bu.; traders expected 8.151 billion bu.— compares to 12.074 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 8.352 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Soybeans: 1.91 billion bu.; traders expected 1.901 billion bu.— compares to 3.100 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.845 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Wheat: 1.237 billion bu.; traders expected 1.215 billion bu.— compares to 1.570 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.089 bil. bu. on March 1, 2024
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 8.151 billion bu., matching trade expectations. Stocks are down 2.4% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 4.5 billion bu. were reported, down 11.4% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 55.2% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 3.651 billion bu., up 11.5% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 44.8% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of corn in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 3.92 billion bu., up 2.6% from the same quarter last year.
Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.91 billion bu., just 9 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and up 3.5% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 876.5 million bu. are down 6.1% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 45.9% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.034 billion bu., 13.4% above year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 54.1% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of soybeans in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 1.19 billion bu., up 3% from the same quarter last year.
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.237 billion bu., 22 million bu. above trade expectations. Stocks are 13.6% above March 1 of last year. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 307 million bu. are up 12.9% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 24.8% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 930 million bu., up 13.8% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 75.2% of total stocks. All wheat implied usage in the third quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 336 million bu., up 1% from the same quarter last year.