WOTUS Definition Announcement Coming, but This is Not the Final Word

Biden Signs $1.7 Trillion Bill Funding Gov’t Operations, Including Ag Disaster Aid

USDA daily export sale: 186,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2022-2023 marketing year.

Fast-food group sues to block California labor law. A group of businesses and restaurant trade groups sued Thursday to stop California from implementing a new labor law boosting protections for fast-food workers. The landmark California law would, among other things, create a worker representative body with the power to raise wages. The group, known as the Save Local Restaurants coalition, is attempting to qualify a referendum that would put the law on hold and ask California voters whether to uphold or repeal it on the November 2024 ballot. Details in Food section. California’s Department of Industrial Relations said in a letter to the coalition that the law would go into effect Jan. 1.

Russia continued Thursday’s missile bombardment of Ukraine is a clear signal that fighting will rage on.

U.S. says Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to American plane. The Chinese jet flew within 20 feet of the nose of an American military aircraft over the South China Sea this month, nearly causing a collision, the U.S. military said.

For December, the Dow is currently down around 4.4%, the S&P 500 lost 6.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 10.2%. The major averages are headed toward their worst year since 2008. The Dow is off 8.58%, versus a 19.24% loss by the S&P 500 and 33.03% by the Nasdaq as investors dumped growth stocks amid rising interest rates.

Energy producers see $84 oil in 2023. Energy executives polled by the Dallas Fed expect oil to end 2023 slightly higher than it is now, but well below Wall Street’s price forecasts for more than $100 a barrel.

EPA reportedly will release its revised WOTUS definition today. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing EPA’s jurisdiction under the Clean Water Act. Bottom line: This will not be the final WOTUS definition. The coming one is the definition that will be in place until the Biden administration/EPA proposes a brand new one based on their field hearings and reflects the still-awaited Supreme Court ruling. This is the final rule that OMB completed their review of on Nov 30. The new definition has not even been proposed yet.

The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has asked the top 20 U.S.-calling shipping lines to detail their compliance with new prohibitions on retaliation, in effect since June.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Kuwaiti military veteran Abdullah Abdul Samad Dashti as its coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agency said in a statement.

Personnel updates include Biden outpacing Trump, Obama with diverse judicial nominees; Federal Reserve is set to lose one of its skeptics when Kansas City Fed President Esther George retires next month; and Brazil names new ag minister.

Southwest Airlines aims to resume its full flying schedule today. Southwest executives said the airline is removing limits on ticket sales and rebuilding crew schedules after an operational meltdown. They also pledged to continue work to update technology systems that company and labor officials have blamed for amplifying Southwest’s troubles. Southwest said it would reimburse affected customers for many types of reasonable expenses they have incurred after it canceled close to 16,000 flights since Dec. 22. Meanwhile, Southwest faces heightened scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers.

Fuel tax set to rise in three Midwestern states. Details below.

U.S. Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a move that could ease Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation. Details in Energy section.

The WSJ has another editorial on the RFS, this time taking shots at EPA’s recent announcements. Details in Energy section.

House Ways and Means Committee today released redacted versions of six years’ worth of former President Donald Trump’s federal tax returns, ending Trump’s years-long effort to keep his returns from the public. Link for details.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 170 points lower. Trading today will be dominated by book squaring and year-end positioning. In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.5%. India -0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.8%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow rose 345.09 points, 1.05%, to 33,220.80, recovering nearly all its losses from the previous session. The S&P 500 gained 1.75% to close at 3,849.28, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.59% to 10,478.09.

The Dow and S&P are slightly higher for the week, by 0.05% and 0.12%, respectively. The Nasdaq is on track for a 0.19% loss.

The major averages are headed toward their worst year since 2008. The Dow is off 8.58%, versus a 19.24% loss by the S&P 500 and 33.03% by the Nasdaq as investors dumped growth stocks amid rising interest rates.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: March corn fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.79 1/2.
• Soy complex: March soybeans rose 2 cents to $15.16 1/4, the contract’s highest close since June 17. March soymeal fell $2.80 to $458.50. March soyoil rose 139 points to 66.36 cents.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat fell 11 1/2 cents to $7.74. March HRW wheat lost 15 3/4 cents to $8.66 1/2. March spring wheat fell 20 cents to $9.14.
• Cotton: March cotton fell 66 points to 82.60 cents, the lowest close since Dec. 16.
• Cattle: February live cattle rose $1.05 to $158.85, a lifetime-high close for the contract. January feeder cattle gained 32.5 cents to $183.80.
• Hogs: February lean hog futures fell $2.125 to $88.675.
  

Ag markets today: Soybean futures continued their price surge overnight with front-month futures reaching their highest level on the continuation chart since Sept. 13. Corn and wheat traded in narrow ranges on either side of unchanged. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally to 2 cents lower, soybeans were 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat futures were steady to 2 cents lower and spring wheat was narrowly mixed. Front-month crude oil futures were around 35 cents lower, and the U.S. dollar index was nearly 100 points lower

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for December. Economists forecast a 43 reading, about six points better than the prior month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, November’s 37.2 reading was the lowest reading since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Fuel tax set to rise in three Midwestern states. On Jan. 1, 2023, fuel tax increases will take effect in Illinois, Michigan, and Nebraska. Originally set for July 1, a fuel tax increase in Illinois (link) was postponed for 6 months to help offset rising inflation and high fuel prices nationwide. With the rate increase in place, Illinois’ excise taxes on gasoline and diesel will rise 3.1 cents to 42.3 cents and 49.8 cents, respectively. Likewise, on Jan. 1, the Michigan diesel tax rate (link) will rise 1.4 cents to 28.6 cents. Also, on Jan. 1, the Nebraska diesel tax rate (link) will rise 4.2 cents to 29 cents, and that rate will remain in effect until June 30, 2023.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro stronger against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell, trading around 3.86%. Crude was lower, with U.S. crude around $78.20 per barrel and Brent around $83.20 per barrel. Gold futures were little changed while silver saw losses, with gold around $1,826 per troy ounce and silver around $24.11 per troy ounce.

• Diesel price drops for 7th consecutive week. For the week ending Dec. 26, the U.S. average diesel fuel price fell 5.9 cents from the previous week to $4.537 per gallon, 92.2 cents above the same week last year. Since Nov. 7, the diesel price has declined 79.6 cents per gallon. Lower diesel prices are due to increased refinery output, as well as the combined decreases in crude oil prices and wholesale and retail margins. In the Midwest, the diesel price dropped 7.5 cents per gallon to $4.402, 92.3 cents above the same week last year.

• Gasoline futures were at around $2.3 per gallon at the end of 2022, almost 6% higher since the beginning of the year as Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally across all related energy commodities in the first half of the year. Still, gasoline prices are more than 42% below record levels of $4.1 hit in June, dragged down by the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, concerns about a recession nearing and renewed lockdowns in China.

Domestically, U.S. companies rose production by 4-5% from last year and the Energy Department projects a similar rate of increase in 2023. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Department expects the average retail gasoline price will decline to $3.61 a gallon in 2023 from $4.02 this year. Meanwhile, the latest EIA data showed that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 3.105 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 23, after a 4.51 million increase in the previous period, surprising analysts’ that expected a 0.52 million gain. Meanwhile, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub decreased by 0.195 million barrels. Gasoline stocks edged up 0.282 million barrels, versus expectations of a 2.05-million-barrel fall.

• Energy producers see $84 oil in 2023. Energy executives polled by the Dallas Fed expect oil to end 2023 slightly higher than it is now, but well below Wall Street’s price forecasts for more than $100 a barrel. The predictions of 150 oil-and-gas executives ranged from $65 to $160 a barrel, but 70% of respondents expect the price of West Texas Intermediate crude to end next year between $70 and $89.99. The average response was $84 a barrel, about $8 higher than the current price of futures for delivery next December.

• First Venezuela/U.S. cargo loading? Some reports speculate that this weekend will witness the first delivery of Chevron-upgraded Venezuelan crude towards a U.S. refinery after the recent White House waiver, a tanker loaded with asphalt-like Boscan crude.

• NWS weather: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern California and the Central Gulf Coast... ...Snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... ...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Soybeans surge, corn and wheat quiet
• Argentine crop ratings continue to decline
• Brazil names new ag minister (details in Personnel section)
• Another big jump in Russia’s wheat export tax
• Indonesia to tighten palm oil exports
• Cash cattle prices strengthen
• Cash hog index firms amid tight supplies.

— Summary: Residents of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, were told to head to air-raid shelters amid a Russian aerial assault. According to the region’s governor, Russia launched an “attack by drones” in the early hours of Friday morning. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said his country’s forces had shot down 54 Russian missiles on Thursday. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s adviser said Russia is holding more than 3,000 prisoners of war.

• The Black Sea Grain Initiative reported 1.2 MMT of grain departed Ukraine ports during the week that ended Dec. 25, which was double the previous week’s volume and included six corn cargoes bound for China. That compares with about 514,848 tons the prior week. More than 15.9 million tons of crops have shipped since the initiative was agreed in late July. Link to data. Link to Joint Coordination Center.

  Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Kuwaiti military veteran Abdullah Abdul Samad Dashti as its coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agency said in a statement.

• Another high-ranked Russian military officer dies unexpectedly. The former commander-in-chief of Russia’s ground forces, Alexei Maslov, has reportedly died in a military hospital, according to his defense company’s Telegram channel, making him the second top-ranking military officer to die in as many days. The retired army general was said to be serving as a special representative of military-technical cooperation for Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s largest tank manufacturer, when he died “unexpectedly” last week. There has been no official confirmation, and no cause of death has been given.

— EPA reportedly will release its revised WOTUS definition today. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing EPA’s jurisdiction under the Clean Water Act.

Bottom line: This will not be the final WOTUS definition. The coming one is the definition that will be in place until the Biden administration/EPA propose a new a brand new one based on their field hearings and reflects the still-awaited Supreme Court ruling. This is the final rule that OMB completed their review of on Nov 30. The new definition has not even been proposed yet.

EPA released a proposed rule late last year, which formally scrapped the Trump-era WOTUS regulation and reinstated pre-2015 Clean Water Act rules that were updated to reflect Supreme Court decisions. EPA’s current proposed final rule, some note, follows 2008 guidance from the George W. Bush administration to determine what qualifies for federal protection under the Clean Water Act.

Beginning Sept. 30, the White House has held a dozen meetings with groups vying to shape the regulation. Over the past year the EPA has received more than 120,000 public comments and conducted 10 regional round tables — several hosted by farm groups throughout the country — to understand more about how the rule was working or not around the country. d

— FMC probes shipping lines’ compliance with anti-retaliation law. The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has asked the top 20 U.S.-calling shipping lines to detail their compliance with new prohibitions on retaliation, in effect since June. Established by the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA), the prohibitions apply to common carriers, marine terminal operators, and ocean transportation intermediaries. OSRA clarified that it is illegal for ocean carriers to discriminate or retaliate against a shipper for filing a complaint or challenging a charge. FMC’s Vessel-Operating Common Carrier Audit Team will specifically focus on how companies are training personnel at all levels to act legally and to maintain awareness of the consequences of breaking the law.

— Biden signs $1.7 trillion bill funding government operations. The following are some key ag-sector items in the omnibus spending bill for fiscal year (FY) 2023, that started Oct. 1:

Here is a recap of the key ag sector features of the omnibus package:

• $3.7 bil. in farm disaster aid, to cover eligible 2022 crop and livestock losses, with $494.5 mil. used for livestock losses due to drought or wildfires, as part of overall $40.6 bil. for disasters.
• Requires USDA to make a one-time payment to each rice producer on a U.S. farm in the 2022 crop year. The measure would rescind $250 mil. from the fiscal 2021 omnibus and reappropriate it for the payments. USDA would determine payment rates based on yield history and acreage. Rice farmers are experiencing amongst the highest increases in production costs but are not sharing in the rise in commodity prices.
• Authorizes $100 mil. for USDA to make pandemic aid payments to cotton merchandisers purchasing cotton from a U.S. producer from March 1, 2020, through the measure’s enactment date.
• $1.92 bil. for farm programs, including $61 mil. to resolve ownership and succession of farmland issues. This funding will continue support for various farm, conservation, and emergency loan programs.
• Includes the Growing Climate Solutions Act, which authorizes USDA to oversee the registration of farm technical advisers and carbon-credit verification services.
• Includes the SUSTAINS Act, which allows corporations and other private entities to contribute funding for conservation projects and authorizes USDA to match the donations.
• Reauthorizes the Pesticide Registration Improvement Act, which imposes fees for maintenance and registration of active ingredients. It boosts registration and maintenance fees 30% and allows EPA to raise fees by 5% in 2024 and 2026.
• Makes permanent a summer EBT (food stamp) program to provide up to $40 a month per child. It allows grab-and-go or home delivery of meals to kids in rural areas as an alternative to meals in group settings. Any summer meals benefits issued to a household in the summer of 2023 couldn’t exceed $120 per child. USDA would be required to establish a program beginning in the summer of 2024 and annually thereafter to issue EBT benefits to eligible households to ensure continued access to food when school isn’t in session in the summer.
• $25 mil. for specialty crop equitable relief.
• A&O instructions. A provision recognizes the legal authority of USDA to index all administrative and operating (A&O/crop insurance) for inflation going forward in a manner consistent with the indexing for inflation during the 2011-2015 period and calls on USDA to take this action, including a provision for future equitable relief for specialty crops, without a renegotiation of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement... SRA.
• Food aid: Aid for Food for Peace... $1.8 bil... and McGovern-Dole International Food for Education... $248 mil... programs.
• Army Corps Emergency Funding: $1.48 bil. is included besides annual appropriations funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to make emergency repairs and navigation improvements needed after extreme weather events, including ongoing low water on the Mississippi River.
• Agricultural research: Ag research funding would increase by $175 mil., to $3.45 bil. in 2023, including monies for the Agricultural Research Service, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, and Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education program.
• Rural Development: USDA’s ReConnect loan and grant program for rural broadband would get $348 mil. for fiscal 2023.

— Biden outpacing Trump, Obama with diverse judicial nominees. The Associated Press reports (link) that so far, 97 lifetime federal judges have been confirmed under President Joe Biden, a figure that outpaces both Trump (85) and Barack Obama (62) at this point in their presidencies. “Three out of every four judges tapped by Biden and confirmed by the Senate in the past two years were women. About two-thirds were people of color. The Biden list includes 11 Black women to the powerful circuit courts, more than those installed under all previous presidents combined.”

— The Federal Reserve is set to lose one of its skeptics when Kansas City Fed President Esther George retires next month. The bank hasn’t named a successor. Link for details via the WSJ. George was raised on a small family farm in Faucett, Mo., that raised cows, hogs, wheat, corn and soybeans. Her parents had to auction off farm equipment to make ends meet in 1983. “I saw first hand in that community, too, what it meant to have leverage at a time of those rising rates,” she said.

— Brazil names new ag minister. President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday confirmed the appointment of soy grower and former vice governor of Brazil’s biggest farm state, Carlos Favaro, as the country’s new agriculture minister. Favaro vowed to work to improve Brazil’s image abroad by transforming the South American nation “into the world’s most sustainable agricultural powerhouse.” He said combating illegal deforestation is paramount, as neglect for the environment can cause local farmers to lose clients in world markets. To curb deforestation, Favaro said he would promote policy to increase use of degraded pastureland for agriculture, which he said would reduce pressure to clear native land to grow crops. He also said the government is keen to help develop a carbon market while advocating farmers must get paid for environment services.

— Close encounter. A Chinese fighter plane flew within 20 feet (6 meters) of a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea in what the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command called “an unsafe maneuver.” The incident, which occurred Dec. 21, was revealed Thursday, the same day that China said it was up to the U.S. to take steps toward resuming high-level military discussions.

— European health officials said Covid-19 restrictions on travelers from China were unjustified. According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Europeans have high levels of protection against Covid, and the risk of imported infections is low. Several countries, including the U.S., Japan and Italy, have announced that travelers from China will have to produce a negative Covid-19 test on arrival.

— China’s sow herd continues to grow. China’s sow herd increased 0.2% in November from the month before to 43.88 million head, according to the country’s ag ministry. The sow herd was 2.1% larger than November 2021.

— U.S. Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a move that could ease Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation. The Treasury sketched out its interpretation of content requirements for electric-vehicle tax credits Thursday, while delaying final rules until March so officials have more time to address the complexities of the law.

Treasury officials indicated that imported EVs can qualify for a consumer tax credit of up to $7,500 through a commercial-vehicle clause in the law by leasing them. That ruling will help foreign carmakers like Hyundai Motor Co., which has complained that their electric models were excluded from the subsidy because they don’t currently manufacture them in North America.

Making leased cars eligible as commercial vehicles triggered an immediate and angry response from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Manchin said the Treasury’s interpretation “bends to the desires of the companies looking for loopholes and is clearly inconsistent with the intent of the law.” “Whether a taxpayer can claim the qualified commercial clean-vehicle credit in its business depends on who is the owner of the vehicle for federal income-tax purposes,” the department said in the FAQ issued Thursday. “Based on longstanding tax principles, the determination whether a transaction constitutes a sale or a lease of a vehicle for tax purposes is a question of fact.”

Coming legislation. Manchin, who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, said he will introduce legislation when Congress returns next year that “further clarifies the original intent of the law and prevents this dangerous interpretation from Treasury from moving forward.”

For vehicles to qualify for the full $7,500 consumer tax credit, Manchin’s content rules also require that 40% of raw materials in an EV battery be extracted and processed in countries that have a free-trade agreement with the US, and 50% of battery components must be made in North America, with the percentages increasing over time.

Treasury officials also outlined the process for carmakers to comply with the act’s content requirements on critical minerals and battery components. These may limit automakers’ eligibility for the full tax credit, but only once they go into effect in March. Until then, existing rules that grant tax credits based on the size of an EV battery will apply. Cars will still be required to be assembled in North America to qualify, and be subject to price and income thresholds as prescribed by the act, a Treasury official said. That means automakers like General Motors Co. and Tesla Inc., which had reached a 200,000-unit cap on eligible EV sales under previous IRS rules, could enjoy an extension of the full credit on vehicles assembled in North America come Jan. 1 — until final rules are proposed in March.

— Another WSJ editorial snarks at ethanol, but this time adds in Tesla and recent EPA announcement re the RFS. That the Wall Street Journal editorial personnel are very much opposed to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, their latest commentary (link) takes on EPA’s recent announcements. It says EPA found “a convoluted way to expand ethanol subsidies to boost EVs.”

“Large refiners have started producing ‘advanced’ biofuels while smaller ones must buy credits known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs),” the WSJ item notes. “Increasing compliance costs have driven several small refiners to shut down. A refining shortage, especially on the East Coast, is a major reason prices for gasoline and diesel shot up early in the summer far more than for crude.”

The EPA proposal, the editorial says, “is one more way to boost EV margins at the likes of Tesla, which lobbied for inclusion in the RFS. As EPA explains, the new eRINs credits will ‘incentivize activities that can increase electrification of the fleet, which could include lowering the cost of EVs and/or increasing the availably [sic] of public access charging infrastructure.’”

WSJ’s bottom line: “The details of the scheme would win a Rube Goldberg award… In sum, the [Biden] administration is proposing another huge wealth transfer from folks who drive gas-powered cars to Tesla and other makers of electric vehicles.”

— Restaurant group sues to block California fast-food wage law. A restaurant-industry group sued a group of California state officials Thursday, alleging they plan to illegally begin implementing a new law (AB 257, also known as the Fast Recovery Act) that would set minimum hourly wages for fast-food workers. The group, including franchisee and restaurant business associations called Save Local Restaurants, said it filed the lawsuit in California Superior Court after the state’s Department of Industrial Relations informed them that the law would go into effect Jan. 1.

The restaurant group said in early December that it had submitted a petition with more than one million voter signatures to require Californians to vote on the measure in the 2024 election, a step that would put the law on hold until then. The lawsuit claims that California plans to implement the law until the secretary of state’s office verifies that the restaurant coalition submitted a minimum of about 623,000 valid signatures on its petition, which hasn’t yet occurred.

The restaurant coalition claims the law shouldn’t go into effect while the secretary of state’s office is in the process of verifying the signatures.

Erin Mellon, a spokeswoman for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), said the state disagrees and intends to move ahead with the law for now. “Although industry is backing a referendum measure, the secretary of state has not certified that it has enough signatures to qualify for the ballot,” she said in a written statement. “The state has an obligation to implement this important law unless and until that occurs.” California’s Department of Industrial Relations said in a letter to the coalition that the law would go into effect Jan. 1. In the Tuesday letter to the coalition, Industrial Relations Department Director Katrina Hagen said she and her staff had “an obligation to proceed” with implementing the law “in the absence of clear authority providing that AB 257 is suspended merely upon submission of unverified signatures.” Hagen wrote that the law would be put on hold “if and when” the referendum challenging it qualifies for the ballot.

The California law was signed in September by Newsom, despite opposition by the fast-food industry. Known as the Fast Recovery Act, it creates a 10-person government-appointed council made up of workers, employers, union representatives and business advocates that would set a minimum wage for the state’s estimated half-million fast-food workers at as high as $22 an hour. That minimum would then increase annually based on inflation. The minimum wage in California is currently $15 an hour, and is set to rise to $15.50 on Jan. 1, 2023. A $22 hourly wage would be about 42% higher than this new pay floor. Some California municipalities have their own minimum wages, according to the UC Berkeley Labor Center. Federal data shows most restaurant workers nationwide already earn more than California’s minimum wage, with average hourly earnings hovering around $17.24 in October. A $22 hourly wage would be a 27% increase above this national average. Some of the major restaurant chains that oppose the law already are hiring at wages close to the $22 minimum the FAST Recovery Act could allow.

— Starting Jan. 1, all foods in the U.S. containing sesame will be subject to specific allergen regulatory requirements, including labeling. The FDA has been reviewing whether to put sesame seeds on the major food allergens list — which also includes milk, eggs, fish, crustacean shellfish, tree nuts, peanuts, wheat and soybeans — for several years. Sesame allergies affect people of all ages and can appear as coughing, itchy throat, vomiting, diarrhea, mouth rash, shortness of breath, wheezing and drops in blood pressure. Sesame is in “dozens and dozens of ingredients,” but it wasn’t always listed by name, said Jason Linde, senior vice president of government and community affairs at Food Allergy Research & Education, a large private funder of food allergy research. “What it means is, for the 1.6 million Americans with life-threatening sesame allergy, that life gets better starting Jan. 1, 2023,” Linde said.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 659,768,468 with 6,687,763 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 100,706,640 with 1,092,456 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 652,880,694 doses administered, 268,143,349 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.39% of the U.S. population.

— New Covid pill shows promise. A trial in China showed that VV116, an experimental antiviral drug for treating Covid, was just as effective as Pfizer’s Paxlovid in limiting illness in people at high risk for severe disease. The findings also indicated that the new pill could have fewer side effects than Paxlovid. VV116, made by Junshi Biosciences and Vigonvita Life Science, is similar to remdesivir, which is approved as an IV infusion, but the new drug comes in pill form. The news about VV116 comes as China confronts a surge in coronavirus infections after Xi Jinping’s government abruptly ended its zero-Covid policy.

— An Arizona state judge ruled Thursday that Democrat Kris Mayes defeated GOP candidate Abe Hamadeh in Arizona’s attorney general’s race after a mandatory recount was held. Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Timothy Thomason on Thursday revealed that Mayes defeated Hamadeh by about 280 votes out of about 2.5 million votes cast. The recount shows that Hamadeh cut into Mayes’s vote-total by about 200 votes; after Nov. 8 election data had shown that Mayes led by about 511 votes. Hamadeh lawyer Tim La Sota declined to comment to reporters after the court hearing. Neither Mayes nor Hamadeh were in court during the hearing. In response to the ruling, Hamadeh said his legal team would likely take action.

— House Democrats released former President Donald Trump’s tax returns Friday in one of their final acts before returning power to Republicans next week. The committee released some of the most notable findings last week in a 29-page executive summary (link), including the fact that Trump regularly claimed large losses, reducing his tax payments. Trump and his wife Melania reported negative income in four of the six tax years between 2015 and 2020, according to the initial disclosures. Link to documents.

— Cotton AWP declines. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 74.50 cents per pound, effective today (Dec. 30), down from 75.57 cents per pound the prior week.

— South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said that he wants his nation to have “overwhelming” military strength against North Korea. “As we saw in the war in Ukraine,” Yoon said, “asymmetric power has become a very important factor.”

— Canada’s competition tribunal approved a merger between Rogers Communications and Shaw Communications that would create the country’s second-biggest telecom provider. The proposed deal, worth $14.8 billion, had been blocked initially because of fears over decreased competition and higher prices, but the tribunal dismissed such concerns. The transaction will still require approval from Canada’s government.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package |