Special Report: July 21, 2024
President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he will no longer seek the Democratic Party’s nomination, stating that his withdrawal is in the best interests of both the party and the country. This decision follows a poor debate performance on June 27 that raised doubts about his ability to defeat Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. Biden has endorsed his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, for the nomination. Many await Biden’s promised address to the nation later in the week when observers will focus on the reasons he bowed out of the presidential contest. With Biden out of the race, the Democratic Party must officially name their nominee at the national convention in Chicago, beginning on Aug. 19. Biden had secured 99% of the pledged delegates in the primaries and caucuses held from January through June. According to Democratic Party rules, these delegates are expected to reflect the sentiments of those who elected them, and Biden’s endorsement of Harris is likely to influence their decision. Harris announced that she would seek the Democratic nomination. “I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination,” Harris said in a statement on Sunday. Several prominent Democrats and liberal groups offered their support for Harris shortly after Biden’s announcement, including former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, who was the Democratic nominee in 2016, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a progressive icon, and major Democratic donor Reid Hoffman. However, other candidates could still challenge Harris for the nomination, potentially leading to a contested convention. In such a scenario, pledged delegates would vote in the first round, and a simple majority is needed to win. If no candidate wins in the first round, 700 super delegates, including members of Congress and party leaders, can vote in subsequent rounds. The question is whether Harris is an automatic choice or will be challenged by other Democrats. DNC Chair Jaime Harrison promised a “transparent and orderly process.” Former President Barack Obama released a lengthy statement praising Biden but did not explicitly endorse Harris. Instead, he noted that the party “will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead… But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges,” Obama added. Harris benefits from her national position and access to campaign funds — questions have arisen regarding the fate of the campaign funds accumulated by the Biden/Harris ticket. Since Biden and Harris were running on a joint ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris is entitled to inherit the campaign funds for her presidential run. This transfer is facilitated by the fact that their campaign accounts were registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) under both their names. Harris can use these funds to support her own presidential campaign, making the transition relatively seamless. The campaign had raised approximately $91 million, with access to around $240 million when including allied Democratic organizations. Donors who contributed to Biden’s campaign may request refunds, but this is not automatic. The campaign would need to agree to release the funds back to donors. Contributions made specifically for the primary election, which Biden has already won, are generally not subject to refunds. However, contributions earmarked for the general election could potentially be refunded upon request. If the Democratic Party nominates someone other than Harris, the situation becomes more complex. The Biden-Harris campaign would face restrictions on transferring funds directly to a new nominee. In such a scenario, the funds could be redirected to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or to a super PAC that supports the party’s new candidate. However, these funds cannot be simply transferred to another candidate’s campaign There is no automatic process for Harris to become the nominee; party delegates will make that decision, focusing primarily on who can best defeat Trump. Harris is favored due to her position as Biden’s running mate, which allows her to access the funds already raised for the Biden-Harris ticket. The campaign and the Democratic Party have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars and have $240 million in cash on hand, compared to $285 million for Trump. Introducing a new candidate could require significant additional spending. Additionally, passing over a woman of color like Harris could alienate important voting blocs within the party. Historically, a sitting president has withdrawn from the race before; President Lyndon Johnson did so March 28, 1968, amid mounting protests against the Vietnam War. Johnson’s decision came later in the election cycle, before he had secured enough delegates to guarantee the nomination. The Democrats then nominated his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, who was defeated by Richard Nixon. Now what? While this move is a relief for many Democratic officials and donors who had urged him to step down, there is potential chaos. Although Biden has endorsed Harris as his successor, the process from here is uncertain. Delegates pledged to Biden are not obligated to vote for Harris, which could lead to a contested convention if they choose to back another candidate. The possibility of discord remains if the party cannot agree on the new nominee. Some Democrats, such as Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), have mentioned a “mini primary” to officially choose Harris. However, it is uncertain if any Democrats will challenge her, considering the risk to their political careers by opposing the first Black and Asian-American woman vice president. Republicans, anticipating Harris as Biden’s replacement, have already begun their attacks. Trump allies criticized Harris’s role in the administration’s immigration policies and positioned her as an easier opponent for Trump to beat. With Biden out and a new opponent not yet confirmed, Republicans must adapt and develop new strategies for the evolving race. GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance said this regarding Harris: “Joe Biden has been the worst President in my lifetime and Kamala Harris has been right there with him every step of the way. Over the last four years she co-signed Biden’s open border and green scam policies that drove up the cost of housing and groceries. She owns all of these failures, and she lied for nearly four years about Biden’s mental capacity — saddling the nation with a president who can’t do the job. President Trump and I are ready to save America, whoever’s at the top of the Democrat ticket. Bring it on.” Potential Biden replacements: • Kamala Harris, Vice President Of note: Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer — both seen as potential contenders for the nomination, do not intend to challenge Harris, according to CBS News. If Harris is the new Democratic nominee, the search is for who could be her running mate. Besides the names listed above, others include North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly. Gavin Newsom is an unlikely choice because two candidates from the same state raise complications. Meanwhile, calls are mounting from Republicans for Biden to resign as president after ending 2024 bid. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): If Biden is not fit to run, he is not fit to serve; he must resign immediately. It is unclear how this will impact the critical races for the House and Senate. Vulnerable Democrats were already facing hurdles with Biden at the top of the ticket. President Trump and other Republicans say the key factor is the policies of each presidential candidate. |