— What traders and analysts say about the U.S./Mexico cattle trade issue regarding New World Screwworm/NWS):
• Note: USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today at 4:30 p.m. ET is providing for an update on the New World Screwworm detection in Mexico. APHIS will share any new information that they have learned since yesterday’s announcement and will answer questions. They could include:
• How long will cattle trade from Mexico to the United States be halted?
— This is the key question on everyone’s mind.
— It is worth noting that some groups who are dependent on buying Mexican feeder cattle have cautioned that limiting trade could result in retaliatory measures from Mexico buying U.S. beef. If this disease is a legitimate threat (which most think it is), it would not seem that any retaliation from Mexico would be appropriate. But some U.S. feedlot groups are attempting to use that argument as leverage to re-open the border.
• The second key questions is if they can identify the location of the cattle, believed to be south…has there been integration of southern cattle to the north? The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint close to the border with Guatemala.
• How quickly is it anticipated the NWS will spread? And what is the confidence USDA is able to detect it?
• Does Mexico have the resources to control and stop the spread of NWS?
— Are there enough sterile flies, etc?
• What would the impact be to the U.S. cattle/beef industry if it was found in the U.S.?
• Are the testing protocols that APHIS might implement at the border going to:
1. Be effective?
2. Be worth the cost?
• Market impacts: This trade stoppages comes as there are signs of retention in the U.S. cattle herd. Market impact will be first on Dec placements with around 150K-200K that could have crossed the border. Some of the retention could also have been coming from heifers brought in from Mexico, another door that is closed.