The Week Ahead: Oct. 6, 2024
— The battleground states: Key to the 2024 presidential election. The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with seven swing states playing a crucial role in determining the outcome. These seven battleground states, accounting for 93 Electoral College votes and 18% of the population, are the focus of both campaigns’ resources and efforts. Each state features a tight race within a 1.5-point margin, according to Financial Times poll tracking (link). The undecided voters. A small but potentially decisive group of undecided voters, comprising only 3% of likely voters in battleground states, could tip the scales in this highly polarized election. These voters include: Voter turnout efforts. Both campaigns are also targeting disengaged voters, with presidential election turnout averaging between 54% and 67% in recent years. Trump’s campaign has been winning the voter registration race in most battleground states. Key battleground states: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) Michigan (15 electoral votes) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Georgia (16 electoral votes) North Carolina (16 electoral votes) Arizona (11 electoral votes) Nevada (6 electoral votes) Bottom line: With just a month left before Election Day Nov. 5, the outcome in these swing states remains uncertain, making the 2024 presidential race a closely watched and unpredictable contest. — House control hangs in balance as election nears. The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives remains tight as the November election approaches, with both Republicans and Democrats vying for a majority, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) aims to maintain and expand the slim Republican majority, while Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) seeks to flip just a few seats to gain control and potentially become the first Black speaker in U.S. history. Key battlegrounds and issues. New York and California are emerging as the primary battlegrounds, with the most competitive seats. Republicans are seeking to link New York Democrats to New York City Mayor Eric Adams following his federal corruption indictment. They aim to make this association a political liability for Democrats in close races in New York, where the outcome could impact control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the next election. However, races in Iowa and other states are also being closely monitored. The top issues driving voter interest include: Current House composition: According to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: Party strategies and messaging: Republican focus: Democratic emphasis: Financial landscape. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee holds a financial advantage, with approximately $87 million cash on hand at the end of August, about $16 million more than their Republican counterparts. Competitive races. Recent updates from political analysts have moved several races into the toss-up category (see next item for more): Bottom line: As the election approaches, both parties express cautious optimism, but the outcome remains uncertain. The results will significantly impact the next president’s agenda on crucial issues such as taxes and border policy. — The Cook Political Report has shifted its ratings in five U.S. House races, with several moving in favor of Democrats. Two Iowa Republicans, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, are now in “toss-up” races, down from their previous “lean Republican” status. Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, while Nunn is challenged by Lanon Baccam. In Montana, Republican Ryan Zinke’s race has shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” as his rematch with Democrat Monica Tranel tightens. Meanwhile, Democrats Frank Mrvan (Indiana) and Eric Sorensen (Illinois) have improved their positions, with their races now rated “likely Democrat.” — The party winning the White House has gained 15 seats in the House over the past century, on average, according to Bruce Mehlman. (Why this matters: With a current GOP margin of just four, the party that wins the White House in 2024 probably also takes the House). — Grover Cleveland, in 1884, was the last newly elected Democratic president to take office without Democrats also controlling the Senate. Why it matters: If Vice President Harris wins, she’ll likely face a Republican Senate. That sets up confirmation crises and showdowns over the debt ceiling, taxes and regulation. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Congress is out until Nov. 12, but the focus is on needed aid for those states impacted by Hurricane Helene. It appears Congress will not be called back to deal with additional disaster aid funding, but this will be the top priority once they return.
Parts of the region are still struggling to reopen roads and reconnect power. Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday traveled to and from Charlotte, North Carolina, where she got a briefing about the Hurricane Helene recovery, met with people affected and delivered an update on the federal response in the afternoon.
Initial damage evaluations suggest that recovery efforts could require tens of billions of dollars, potentially exceeding the recent $20 billion allocation to FEMA. While the exact amount of remaining funding is unknown, there are serious concerns about FEMA’s financial capacity to handle potential disasters for the remainder of the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, 2024.
Hurricane Helene has exposed a critical vulnerability in the global semiconductor supply chain by halting production of ultra-pure quartz in North Carolina, which supplies about 90% of the world’s quartz used in chip manufacturing. The flooding in the town of Spruce Pine has temporarily stopped operations at key quartz facilities, raising concerns about potential disruptions to downstream semiconductor production. While companies like Sibelco and The Quartz Corporation are working on recovery, any prolonged delay could exacerbate the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor industry, particularly for advanced chips used in AI processing.
Of note: Concerns are mounting about the impact on voter turnout due to damaged voting sites and lost mail ballots, especially in western North Carolina and eastern Georgia, areas that are largely Republican. Mail service has been suspended for millions, though officials are working to deliver absentee ballots. There also are concerns about displaced voters and poll workers. This disruption could affect voter participation, with potential consequences for former President Donald Trump’s base. Election officials are racing to send absentee ballots, reschedule training sessions, and assess damage to polling sites to maintain election integrity. Some 250,000 absentee ballot requests have also been made in North Carolina, with roughly 10,000 in the Asheville region alone, according to Bob Phillips, executive director of the nonpartisan nonprofit Common Cause North Carolina.
President Biden said Friday that Harris has been a major player in the administration’s management of the crisis, a statement that was quickly highlighted by the Trump campaign.
Communities in Florida are being urged to prepare for a potential Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico just days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in the state. Tropical Storm Milton is expected to intensify quickly.
— Israel continues air strikes on Lebanon amid regional tensions. Israel launched more air strikes on Lebanon, including Beirut, killing a Hamas military official and his family, according to Reuters. President Joe Biden said Israel had not yet decided how to respond to Iran’s missile attack, hinting at “other alternatives” to targeting Iranian oil fields. Biden emphasized his administration’s strong support for Israel, reminding Prime Minister Netanyahu that “no administration has helped Israel more than I have.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country faces war on seven fronts and called them the “enemies of civilization.”
Oct. 7 marks one year since the Hamas-led assault in southern Israel when militants killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 people hostage, leading to Israel’s war in Gaza and strikes in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the U.S. launched strikes against 15 Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting what the U.S. said were “offensive military capabilities.” A television network run by the Iran-backed rebels, who control much of Yemen, reported that strikes hit an airport. Since last October the Houthis have launched hundreds of missiles towards Israel and attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Crude oil posted its biggest weekly increase in more than a year on fears that Israel may decide to strike Iranian petroleum facilities in retaliation for a missile attack.
— President Joe Biden will visit Germany on Oct. 10. It marks the first state visit by a U.S. president to Germany in four decades. The itinerary includes meetings with German leaders and culminates in a high-stakes summit at Ramstein air base focused on the war in Ukraine. The Ramstein summit, where dozens of international leaders are expected, will address the ongoing war and Ukraine’s growing demands for more aggressive use of Western-supplied weapons, specifically for strikes deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s push for this policy reflects Kyiv’s desire to shift the momentum of the war, but it is a controversial issue. Some European governments, like the UK, are open to the idea, believing it could strengthen Ukraine’s position. However, other governments fear that escalating attacks on Russian soil could provoke even greater conventional military retaliation from Moscow or spark unconventional warfare against the West, further destabilizing the region.
— President Biden will unveil expanded student debt relief for public workers and actions to eliminate lead pipes within a decade as part of his administration’s economic agenda. Biden’s student loan announcement will come just days after a federal judge in Missouri temporarily blocked efforts to finalize a program that would have canceled as much as $20,000 in accrued interest on student loans and forgiven balances for longtime borrowers. The White House has been repeatedly stymied by federal courts as it has sought to eliminate student debt, though the administration has canceled almost $170 billion so far.
— The Supreme Court’s upcoming term starts Monday and will run through June 2025. More cases are likely to be added to the docket in the coming months — the court will keep adding cases for the term until about mid-January. The term includes several cases that could further limit the power of federal agencies, continuing a trend from recent terms. Experts say the conservative majority has been “waging war on the administrative state.”
Major cases include:
• A challenge to Biden administration regulations on “ghost guns” assembled from kits. This will test how much leeway agencies like ATF have to interpret statutes.
• On Friday, the Supreme Court agreed to address the Mexican government’s claims that gun companies engaged in business practices, such as failing to impose sales restrictions, that benefitted cartels.
• A push for new limits on the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which requires federal agencies to carefully evaluate the environmental impacts of major projects like pipelines. Environmental advocates are concerned about the outcome, especially after the court’s recent decision to overturn the Chevron doctrine, raising doubts about NEPA’s future.
• San Francisco is challenging the EPA over federal water pollution regulations, arguing that the wastewater permit for one of its sewage plants includes vague requirements that are nearly impossible to meet. The outcome of this case could have national implications, as similar language is used in permits across the U.S. If the court sides with San Francisco, it could weaken the EPA’s ability to regulate water pollution.
• A challenge to Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors.
• A case on Texas’ law requiring age verification for porn websites. The transgender care and porn website cases involve questions of constitutional rights and government power to protect minors.
• A case to revive a plan to store as much as 40,000 tons of highly radioactive waste at a temporary west Texas site, a possible turning point after decades of wrangling over spent reactor fuel.
Regarding elections, the court has turned away calls to put Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on the ballot in Nevada and to restore independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the ballot in New York even though he has suspended his candidacy. Potentially bigger fights loom over the rules for mail-in ballots and state certification of election results.
— Biden/Harris broadband rollout: A very slow and complicated process. The $42.5 billion broadband expansion initiative, part of the 2021 infrastructure law, has faced significant delays and challenges in its implementation. Despite the ambitious goal of providing “internet for all,” particularly in underserved rural areas, construction on these projects has yet to begin, with the earliest start date now projected for next year. (See next item for a major success story in North Dakota.)
Regulatory hurdles. The Commerce Department has imposed additional requirements beyond those specified in the original legislation, leading to complications in the approval process for state plans. The complex requirements tend to benefit larger companies that can better manage the regulatory challenges. This puts small rural providers at a competitive disadvantage when bidding for grants. These new mandates include:
• Rate regulation: States are required to ensure bidders offer “affordable” pricing options.
• Fiber preference: The program strongly favors fiber broadband over potentially more cost-effective alternatives like satellite or wireless services.
• Labor requirements: Grant recipients are expected to pay union-scale wages and not oppose union organizing efforts.
Impact on providers. These regulations have had a significant impact on potential broadband providers:
• Small providers deterred: Many small rural providers are opting out of bidding for grants due to the regulatory burden.
• Large providers favored: The complex requirements tend to benefit larger companies that can better manage the regulatory challenges.
The rollout faces several other obstacles:
• Hiring preferences: The administration has stipulated hiring preferences for various “underrepresented” groups, which may be challenging to fulfill in certain areas.
• Permitting issues: States have reported a lack of clarity on permitting processes, with some required systems not yet available.
• Environmental considerations: Providers must consider alternative plans with smaller environmental impacts and address future climate risks.
The program has faced criticism on several fronts:
• Duplication of services: Some argue that the program may be funding broadband in areas that already have access to high-speed internet.
• Cost-effectiveness: Critics suggest that alternative technologies like satellite or 5G could provide coverage at a lower cost than fiber networks.
• Execution challenges: The implementation has been characterized as an example of well-intentioned government policy hindered by complex regulations and political considerations.
Small providers may be hesitant due to concerns about long-term project viability:
• Low population density: Rural areas often have fewer potential customers spread over larger areas, making it challenging to achieve a return on investment.
• Infrastructure costs: Building broadband infrastructure in rural areas can be more expensive due to difficult terrain and lack of existing infrastructure.
These factors combined make many small rural providers reluctant to participate in federal grant programs, despite the potential benefits of expanding broadband access in their communities.
Bottom line: As the program continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how these challenges will be addressed and when the promised broadband expansion will materialize.
— North Dakota is widely recognized as having one of the most effective internet infrastructures for rural citizens in the United States. There are several key reasons for this:
Extensive fiber coverage. North Dakota has achieved remarkable broadband coverage, particularly in rural areas:
• Over 95% of the state’s homes have access to at least 100 Mbps broadband service.
• More than 70% have access to 1 Gbps service.
• Some 97% of North Dakotans had access to 100 Mbps service or faster.
Local provider investment. The state’s success is largely attributed to aggressive investment by local telephone cooperatives and independent companies:
• These local providers have connected the majority of the state to high-speed fiber networks.
• Rural North Dakotans are more likely to have access to gigabit fiber broadband than many urban areas in other states.
Historical context. The foundations for this success were laid in the 1990s:
• A coalition of 15 local cooperatives and small businesses purchased neglected network assets from U.S. West (now part of CenturyLink).
• This prevented the entrance of another national monopoly and strengthened local providers.
State support and planning. North Dakota has implemented supportive policies and planning:
• The state has updated its broadband goals and received substantial funding boosts since 2021.
• There’s been a combination of state-appropriated funds and federal funding to support infrastructure buildout.
Regional approach. North Dakota has embraced a regional mindset in addressing broadband challenges:
• This approach helps overcome barriers like low population density and challenging terrain.
• It allows for aggregation of subscriber demand, making projects more viable for providers.
Bottom line: As a result of these factors, rural North Dakota has some of the best internet connectivity in the country. Rural residents are more likely to have access to high-speed fiber networks than even urban residents in many other states. This success demonstrates the effectiveness of local, community-driven approaches to rural broadband deployment.
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| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Oct. 7
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman takes part in an event at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak.
• FDA Science Board. Food and Drug Administration holds a virtual meeting of the Science Board to the Food and Drug Administration Advisory Committee to receive an update from the New Alternative Methods Subcommittee and to hear details about FDA’s reorganization scheduled to have been implemented Oct. 1 that includes significant updates to the Office of the Chief Scientist and the creation of a unified Human Foods Program.
• Hamas attack on Israel anniversary. Several organizations hold discussions on the one-year anniversary of Hamas invading Israel, including the Heritage Foundation, Common Good, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the American Enterprise Institute.
Tuesday, Oct. 8
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024 in Germany; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on The Discount Window: 1913-2000 in North Carolina. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are scheduled to speak.
• New President in Mexico. Wilson Center discussion on “Claudia Sheinbaum: What’s Next for U.S./Mexico Relations.”
• Fruit and Vegetable Advisory panel. Agricultural Marketing Service meeting of the Fruit and Vegetable Industry Advisory Committee for administrative matters and consideration of recommendations pertaining to labor and production, food safety, infrastructure and sustainability, consumption and nutrition, and data reporting and analysis. Runs through Wednesday.
• Global competition. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “The Case for Federal Research and Development in the Age of Global Competition.”
• Europe views on U.S. elections. The German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “European Perspectives on the U.S. Elections.”
• Israel/Hamas conflict. Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies; the Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding; and Democracy for the Arab World Now forum on “The Israel/Gaza War: One Year Later.”
• Election threats. Common Cause virtual media briefing on “Election 2024: Threats to Our Elections and the Work to Overcome Them.”
• Mississippi River. Environmental and Energy Study Institute briefing on “The Mississippi River,” as part of the Resilient and Healthy Rivers series.
• Central Oregon water supply. House Natural Resources Water, Wildlife and Fisheries Subcommittee field hearing on “It All Depends on Water: Examining Efforts to Improve and Protect Central Oregon’s Water Supply.”
• Russian aggression. Council on Foreign Relations discussion on “Russian Aggression Beyond Ukraine.”
• U.S. policy toward Iran. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The Future of U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: A Bipartisan Roadmap for the Next Administration.”
• Marine transport of LNG, chemicals. Coast Guard virtual meeting of the National Chemical Transportation Safety Advisory Committee’s Cargo Compatibility Testing Subcommittee to support reductions to emissions and environmental impacts associated with marine transport of chemicals, liquefied gases and liquefied natural gas.
• Fed monetary policy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?”
• Environmental and energy justice. Resources for the Future discussion on “The Future of Environmental and Energy Justice.”
• U.S./China policy. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Defining Success: Does the U.S. Need an ‘End State’ for its China Policy?”
• Middle East and U.S. elections. Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “The future of the Middle East: Issues at stake in the 2024 election.”
Wednesday, Oct. 9
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on The Discount Window: 1990 to Present in North Carolina. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to speak.
• Food security and immigration. Wilson Center’s Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative and the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program discussion on “Tackling the Root Causes: Food Insecurity and Forced Migration in Latin America.”
• U.S. CODEX panel meeting on food labeling. U.S. Codex office virtual meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission’s Codex Committee on Food Labeling.
• Farm Credit Insurance Board. Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation meeting of the board of directors.
• Renewable energy report. International Energy Agency media briefing on the launch of its Renewables 2024 market report, providing forecasts for the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2030.
• Rail safety after Ohio derailment. Federal Railroad Administration meeting of the Railroad Safety Advisory Committee to discuss efforts critical to railroad safety including safety improvements in the wake of the Feb. 3, 2023, East Palestine, Ohio, derailment, electronic devices, remote control operations, and roadway worker protection.
• Energy transportation via rail. Surface Transportation Board meeting of the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee to discuss rail service, infrastructure planning and development, and effective coordination among suppliers, rail carriers, and users of energy resources.
• EU climate and financial policies. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “A Holistic Perspective on Climate and Financial Policies,” focusing on the European Union.
• Energy transition. Inter-American Dialogue discussion on “Bolstering Latin America-Japan-U.S. Cooperation on Energy Transition and Critical Minerals Supply.”
• China reforms. Atlantic Council discussion on “End of the Line: The Cost of Faltering Reforms,” focusing on China reforms to address economic challenges and growth.
• Reform of De Minimis. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “Regulating and Reforming De Minimis,” focusing on shipments to the United States, including from online marketplaces.
• Xi Jinping legacy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Xi Jinping’s Search for a Lasting Legacy.”
• Election security safeguards. Common Good virtual discussion on “Election Security & Safeguards.”
Thursday, Oct. 10
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on Entrepreneurship and Innovation in South Carolina. New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak.
• Flu, HPAI vaccines. Food and Drug Administration virtual meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to discuss and make recommendations on the strain selection for the influenza virus vaccines for the 2025 southern hemisphere influenza season, discuss pandemic preparedness for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus including considerations for vaccine composition for (H5) vaccines and hear an overview of the research programs in the Laboratory of Pediatric & Respiratory Viral Diseases and the Laboratory of DNA Viruses in the Division of Viral Products, Office of Vaccines Research and Review, CBER.
• Renewable energy. American Council on Renewable Energy 2024 Grid Forum.
• Climate and energy risks. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual Global Risk Conference on “Climate and Energy Risks: Persistent and Emerging.”
• USAID. Center for Global Development discussion on “Improving the Impact per Dollar of USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) Programming: The Power of Cost-Effectiveness Evidence to Improve Lives.”
• Farm Credit Administration meeting. Farm Credit Administration meeting to consider a Proposed Rule-Annual Independent Audits and Internal Controls over Financial Reporting Requirements.
• Infrastructure resilience. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Resilience at Scale: A New Paradigm for Infrastructure.”
• Global risks. The Atlantic Council discussion on “The Global Risks Facing the Next President.”
• China focus. Georgetown University discussion on “Deciphering Beijing: How to Read and Report What’s Going on in China.”
• Infrastructure public-private partnerships. Wilson Center’s Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition virtual discussion on “How Infrastructure Public Private Partnerships Can Reinvigorate America.”
Friday, Oct. 11
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking at the Federal Reserve of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak.
• The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced.
• Mexican government. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Mexico: Survival of Liberal Democracy or Creation of an Authoritarian Regime after the 2024 General Elections?”
• 2024 elections. Brookings Institution’s Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative virtual discussion on “Race in the 2024 Election.”
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
U.S. inflation likely eased in September, with the consumer price index on Thursday expected to rise just 0.1%, marking the smallest increase in three months. Year-over-year, CPI is projected to increase by 2.3%, the slowest rate since early 2021. The gauge excluding the volatile food and energy categories, which provides a better view of underlying inflation, is projected to rise 0.2% from a month earlier and 3.2% from September 2023. This moderation could reassure the Federal Reserve, which is increasingly focusing on protecting the labor market.
The CPI report will be released on Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Friday’s report on producer prices — a gauge of inflationary pressures faced by businesses — is also projected to show tamer inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said projections issued by officials alongside their September rate decision point toward quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year.
Monday, Oct. 7
• Consumer Credit
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman takes part in an event at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak.
Tuesday, Oct. 8
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
• International Trade
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024 in Germany; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on The Discount Window: 1913-2000 in North Carolina. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are scheduled to speak.
Wednesday, Oct. 9
• Wholesale Trade
• FOMC Minutes
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on The Discount Window: 1990 to Present in North Carolina. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to speak.
Thursday, Oct. 10
• Jobless Claims
• CPI
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on Entrepreneurship and Innovation in South Carolina. New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak.
Friday, Oct. 11
• PPI-FD
• Consumer Sentiment
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking at the Federal Reserve of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak.
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates and China’s crop report will be released on Friday, Oct. 11.
In the energy sector, Tuesday brings the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Winter Fuels Outlook.
Monday, Oct. 7
Ag reports and events:
• Sugar production and cane crush data from Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• Export Inspections
• Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
• Crop Progress
Energy reports and events:
• Shell, Repsol provide third quarter updates
• Holiday: Canada, portions of Australia
Tuesday, Oct. 8
Ag reports and events:
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Energy reports and events:
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Winter Fuels Outlook
• Carbon Forward Expo 2024, London; runs through Thursday
• UK’s National Energy System Operator and National Gas to publish Winter Outlooks.
Wednesday, Oct. 9
Ag reports and events:
• Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
• Broiler Hatchery
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report
• DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2024
• Holiday: South Korea
Thursday, Oct. 10
Ag reports and events:
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s Oct. 1-10 palm oil exports
• U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
• Meat Price Spreads
• Export Sales
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• World Energy Council Energy Day 2024, Berlin
• Renewable Energy Market Initiative Conference, Berlin; runs through Friday
• ICE Gasoil October futures expire
• Holiday: Taiwan
Friday, Oct. 11
Ag reports and events:
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• Cotton: World Markets and Trade
• Grains: World Markets and Trade
• Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
• World Agricultural Production
• Livestock: World Markets and Trade
• WASDE
• Crop Production
• Cotton Ginnings
• Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Holiday: Argentina, Hong Kong
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |