VP Vance Breaks Tie to Confirm Hegseth as Defense Secretary | Trump to Address Congress March 4

Kristi Noem confirmed as Sec. of Homeland Security | Trump’s midnight purge of inspectors general sparks outrage | Two confirmation hearings for RFK Jr.

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January 25, 2025 03:46 PM

WEEK AHEAD_PF_FINAL.jpg — The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead: Jan. 25, 2025

Other topics in this dispatch include: (1) New State Dept. memo put Trump’s 90-day pause on almost all foreign aid into action; (2) Trump pledges federal support for Los Angeles wildfire recovery amid FEMA overhaul plans; (3) Eggflation strikes again: Avian flu sparks severe shortage and price surge; (4) Brazil also moves to tackle rising food prices; (5) CIA now supports lab leak theory on Covid-19 origins; (6) More on Trump initiating trade review, paving way for tariffs; (7) United front against U.S. tariffs: Mexico and Canada respond to Trump’s threats; (8) Lighthizer’s gamble: The fight for tariffs and American manufacturing; (9) Financial focus this week: U.S. Federal Reserve, Canada and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions; (10) Ag focus this week: Commodity traders and farmers will be watching any new reports regarding Trump’s threatened tariffs; (11) Energy focus: Majors including Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and IOC will report earnings during the week.

— President Donald Trump will address Congress March 4, according to sources cited by Punchbowl News. This will be Trump’s first joint address since winning back the White House

— VP Vance breaks tie to confirm Hegseth as Defense Secretary. Vice President JD Vance cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, overcoming opposition from three Republican senators — Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins — who joined all Democrats in opposing the controversial nominee. The 51-50 vote marked only the second time in history a vice president has decided a Cabinet-level confirmation. Hegseth, a former Fox News anchor and Army veteran, faced intense scrutiny over allegations of misconduct and controversial past statements. Despite these challenges, President Donald Trump stood by his nominee, securing the narrow confirmation as part of his effort to finalize his national security team.

More contentious picks await. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary, Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, and Kash Patel as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. All are set to have public confirmation hearings in the coming week. The most vulnerable may be Gabbard.

Upshot: Some analysts say Hegseth’s confirmation bodes well for President Donald Trump’s other controversial cabinet choices, or most of them.

— Senate confirmed South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security. The vote was 59-34. A vote on Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent will occur on Monday.

— Trump’s midnight purge of inspectors general sparks outrage. In a sweeping and controversial move, President Donald Trump fired the independent inspectors general of at least 12 major federal agencies, including at USDA, late Friday night, prompting legal and ethical concerns. The Washington Post was the first to report the purge (link).

The dismissals, which violated federal law requiring 30 days’ notice to Congress, left oversight at departments such as Defense, State, Veterans Affairs and USDA in disarray. The inspectors general were notified by emails from the White House personnel director that they had been terminated immediately.

Trump now faces backlash from lawmakers, including Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who called for explanations on why the legally mandated notice was ignored. The dismissed inspectors general had a history of exposing mismanagement in both Trump and Biden administrations.

House Ag Committee Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) said: “This midnight purge of inspector generals, including at the USDA, is alarming and unprecedented. While the president has the right to replace inspector generals, the late-night firing of these independent watchdogs not only violates the law but also hampers our ability to combat waste, fraud, and abuse and ensure programs are run as Congress intended, whether its disaster assistance for farmers or nutrition programs. These firings threaten to undermine public trust at a time when many hardworking Americans doubt whether government institutions are looking out for them and reinforce the perception that politicians get to play by a different set of rules.”

— New State Dept. memo put Trump’s 90-day pause on almost all foreign aid into action. Trump’s executive order applies to not only new but already existing funding (with some carve-outs for Egypt, Israel and emergency food aid). Some U.S. officials are pushing to exempt Ukraine from Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s foreign aid freeze.

— Trump pledges federal support for Los Angeles wildfire recovery amid FEMA overhaul plans. President Trump toured wildfire-devastated Pacific Palisades on Friday, pledging federal aid to California while emphasizing the need for collaboration with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom despite their political differences. Trump’s visit follows wildfires that claimed 28 lives and destroyed over 15,000 structures. During a brief meeting at Los Angeles International Airport, Newsom urged federal support, to which Trump assured, “We’re going to take care of it.” The two leaders, despite previous clashes over disaster management and water policies, expressed intent to work together.

Earlier in the day, Trump visited Asheville, North Carolina, recovering from Hurricane Helene. He announced plans to overhaul FEMA, or potentially eliminate it, citing inefficiencies. The proposal would shift more disaster response responsibilities and funding to states, though congressional approval would be required.

While promising aid, Trump hinted at conditions for future federal support, including voter ID laws and water policy changes, sparking criticism of politicizing the crisis. Coordination between federal, state, and local officials remains critical for recovery efforts. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) Schumer criticized Trump’s comments. Getting rid of FEMA would be “dangerous,” said Schumer.

— Eggflation strikes again: Avian flu sparks severe shortage and price surge. The U.S. is grappling with a dire egg shortage and soaring prices, fueled by the deadliest wave of avian influenza since it first struck three years ago, the New York Times reported (link). Over the past month, the virus has impacted nearly 13 million poultry animals, leading to the culling of 30 million chickens — about 10% of the nation’s egg-laying hens. Recovery will take months, with some farms unable to restock until mid-2026. (Link to info on USDA’s latest food price report).

Egg prices jumped 37% year-over-year as of December 2024, far outpacing general food inflation. A dozen large eggs now averages $4.15, with prices peaking at $6.72 in some regions. Retailers like Aldi and Walmart are implementing purchase limits, while restaurants and grocery stores struggle to keep shelves stocked. Meanwhile, a federal communication freeze ordered by President Trump has delayed public updates on the outbreak until Feb. 1.

— Brazil also moves to tackle rising food prices. Brazil’s government plans to cut import taxes on cheaper foreign food and explore ways to reduce intermediary costs, according to Chief of Staff Rui Costa. Rejecting price controls and fiscal measures, the administration aims to ease food costs through targeted trade and supply chain adjustments.

— CIA now supports lab leak theory on Covid-19 origins. The CIA has concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic most likely originated from a lab leak in Wuhan, China, joining the FBI and Energy Department in this assessment. The agency noted its findings were made with “low confidence” but emphasized ongoing evaluations of new intelligence. This shift marks the CIA’s strongest stance yet on the virus’s origins. The pandemic, which began in late 2019, has claimed over seven million lives globally, including 1.2 million Americans. Despite varying conclusions within the U.S. intelligence community, the lab leak theory continues to gain traction, especially under the leadership of newly sworn-in CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who prioritizes investigating the virus’s origins. China’s lack of cooperation in international investigations remains a significant barrier to reaching definitive conclusions.

WASHINGTON FOCUS

The House adjourned until Feb. 4. House Republicans will be in Florida this week for their annual policy retreat at the Trump National Doral Miami.

The Senate this week will continue to focus on nomination hearings and floor votes on Trump nominees.

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation hearings for the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) are scheduled for this week. Details:

· Senate Committee on Finance: Wednesday, Jan. 29, at 10 a.m. ET.

· Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP): Thursday, Jan. 30, at 10 a.m. ET.

Kennedy’s nomination has generated significant attention and controversy, primarily due to his past statements and positions on various health-related issues:

· Vaccine concerns: Kennedy’s views on vaccines have been scrutinized by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers. He has been accused of promoting doubts about vaccine efficacy, particularly during a 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

· Abortion stance: Some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about Kennedy’s pro-abortion views.

· Agricultural impact: There are worries about Kennedy’s potential impact on the agriculture sector.

Recent financial disclosures reveal:

· Kennedy reported debts ranging from $2.86 million to $12.2 million.

· He netted more than $11 million over the past two years.

· Expected income of $2-4 million from upcoming book deals.

The confirmation process could face challenges:

· Kennedy can only afford to lose three Republican votes if the Democratic caucus remains united in opposition.

· Some Republicans, including incoming HELP Committee chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.), have expressed concerns about Kennedy’s views.

· Hawaii Governor Josh Green has traveled to Washington to lobby against Kennedy’s confirmation.

Kennedy has been meeting with senators from both parties to make his case. He met with dozens of Republican senators and plans to meet with key committee members last week. Meetings with Democratic senators, including Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) were also scheduled.

Of note: Not all processed foods are created equal. According to Consumer Reports (link), while ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) are linked to numerous health risks, such as heart disease, diabetes, and even depression, certain processed foods may actually provide health benefits. For example, whole-grain breakfast cereals and yogurt were found to reduce cardiovascular disease risks in a 2024 study published in The Lancet. However, experts caution against heavy consumption of sugary drinks, processed meats, and calorie-dense snacks, as they are the primary drivers of these health concerns. Instead, focus on minimally processed alternatives like canned beans, frozen vegetables, or homemade meals to reduce health risks while maintaining convenience. “The goal isn’t to eliminate all processed foods but to prioritize those that are less harmful or even beneficial,” says Josiemer Mattei, PhD, of Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

— More on Trump initiating trade review, paving way for tariffs. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Jan. 20 ordering federal agencies to review U.S. trade policies with Mexico, Canada, and China, potentially setting the stage for new tariffs. Agencies have until April 1 to submit their findings and recommendations. One notable task involves the White House Office of Management and Budget assessing how foreign government subsidies impact U.S. procurement, with that report due by April 30.

Tariff timeline. Although Trump refrained from imposing the promised immediate tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and a 10% hike on China, he indicated these measures could take effect as early as Feb. 1. The memorandum prioritizes investigating the U.S. trade deficit, examining potentially unfair trade practices, and assessing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and trade pacts with China.

Trump also proposed creating an “external revenue service” to handle tariffs and duties, signaling a broader effort to reshape U.S. trade policy. Trump directed the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Homeland Security to evaluate the feasibility of such a service.

Upshot. Insiders say Trump’s tariff barrage is simply delayed, not deferred, as the administration staffs up.

Of note: Imported goods are a key driver of the American economy, totaling $2.9 trillion in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau — with China, Canada and Mexico accounting for over 40% of that volume.

USDA Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins, during her confirmation hearing Jan. 24, indicated she would use her authority to compensate farmers for lost exports if trading partners raise tariffs. The House had included a suspension of that authority in its farm bill last year, but the measure wasn’t enacted. Former Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue used the Section 5 authority of the CCC to provide aid to farmers valued at $12 billion in 2018 and $16 billion in 2019, according to the Congressional Research Service. Rollins didn’t mention the Section 5 authority, but said she’s spoken to Perdue. “We are prepared to execute something similar,” Rollins said. “But also working with the White House to ensure that we can close those holes for our farmers and ranchers moving forward under any sort of tariff execution in the next coming days, in the next few years, and that will be a top priority of mine.”

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) asked Rollins to say “you will throw your body in front of the bus” to ensure any tariffs take account of the impact on farmers, as was not done during the first Trump term. She urged Rollins to use her “good relationship” with Trump to advocate for farmers. “Yes, my commitment is that there will be no sleeping, that we will work around the clock to ensure that our ag communities across this country are represented in those discussions and at the table and I will do everything in my power to elevate, preserve, honor, conserve that backbone of America,” Rollins said.

— United front against U.S. tariffs: Mexico and Canada respond to Trump’s threats. In response to President Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, the two nations are presenting a coordinated strategy to address the economic risks and uphold the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Diplomatic responses

Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed a “robust” response to what he terms “unfair tariffs,” indicating readiness for retaliation and emphasizing Canada’s proactive counterstrategy.
Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum advocates for diplomacy, highlighting that the tariffs violate the USMCA. Mexico’s Foreign Minister is already in talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to de-escalate tensions.

Economic implications

Canada: A 25% tariff risks reducing annual economic output by 2-3.6%, potentially affecting over a million jobs.

Mexico: Heavily dependent on U.S. trade, Mexico could face a 2% drop in growth, widespread factory closures, and job losses.
United States: While some industries might benefit, tariffs would disrupt key supply chains, particularly in the auto sector, and harm U.S. workers.

United front strategy. Both nations are aligning their responses to emphasize the USMCA’s importance and mitigate the fallout. Diplomatic engagement with U.S. officials and a shared focus on economic stability underline their efforts to avoid a trade war.

Of note: When asked if Canadian officials have asked President Trump wants Canada to do to avoid tariffs, a Canadian contact said: “He keeps moving the goalpost.” As the Feb. 1 deadline looms, the unity between Mexico and Canada highlights their determination to safeguard the North American trade relationship while countering potential economic turmoil.

— Lighthizer’s gamble: The fight for tariffs and American manufacturing. Robert Lighthizer, Donald Trump’s former U.S. Trade Representative and architect of his tariff-driven trade policy, remains sidelined in Florida as Trump’s second term unfolds. Despite being passed over for key roles, Lighthizer continues to champion protectionist policies he believes can revitalize American manufacturing, according to a lengthy article in the New Yorker (link).

Lighthizer, an economic nationalist with deep roots in trade policy, advocates for “strategic decoupling” from China and the renegotiation of post-Cold War trade deals. However, critics argue that Trump’s first-term tariffs failed to deliver their promised manufacturing revival, instead increasing costs for consumers and sparking international retaliation.

Key comments from Lighthizer in the New Yorker article:

· “Free trade doesn’t exist anywhere in the world… It just doesn’t. And it doesn’t largely because of details.” Even in the absence of tariffs, countries do all sorts of things to protect domestic manufacturing. “I have trouble explaining this even to anyone senior in government,” Lighthizer said. “It’s also the banking system. It’s the labor system, it’s the environmental system, it’s the general regulations, it’s the safety standards that all structure a market to favor domestic production and scale up exports.”

· During Trump’s first administration, the card he had to play was ideological affinity. “Mr. President,” he said, “that’s because I’m the only one who sees this the way you do.”

· “Strategic decoupling” is the phrase that Lighthizer uses to describe his envisioned changes to trade with China in a second Trump term. What Lighthizer would like to see is “a new trade system,” in which the U.S. walked away from the disadvantageous trade agreements of the nineties and negotiated a new series of agreements with other democracies, wealthy and not, that fixed those mistakes. Other trading partners would probably be unhappy about this, and “you’d have to fight your way through the retaliation,” Lighthizer said, but in the end he thought other countries would renegotiate because they needed our market to sell to.

· Push for a new U.S. trade vision. “We have the momentum politically to do it,” Lighthizer said. “We have the benefit of a trillion-dollar trade deficit, which gives us enormous leverage. We take unilateral action, we disrupt the system, we build over not too long a period toward what I suggest.” It wouldn’t be easy, he acknowledged. “Now, you’ll have a lot of resistance toward it, because, when everyone’s robbing the bank, there’s not a lot of incentive to stop bank robbers, right?” Lighthizer said. “But you can create enough pressure where you can do it. And it would be the most sensible thing, where you go back to the sense of the benefits of trade — you do the things you can do best, I do the things I can do best.”

· Lighthizer did not sound especially impressed by Trump’s economic team. “I probably know more about tax than anyone going into the administration,” he told the New Yorker writer, Benjamin Wallace-Wells.

· During President Trump’s first administration, Lighthizer gave Trump an old brown book he has from the eighteen-eighties called The Great Debate, which collected political arguments for and against tariffs. When Lighthizer went into the White House, in 2017, he read Alone, the second installment of William Manchester’s biography of Winston Churchill, to help prepare for opposition to his economic nationalism. Instead, he found that his ideas drew interest from unexpected places. Lighthizer recalled gathering his aides into his office and phoning Elon Musk — “I told them, ‘One of the perks of this job is you can get absolutely anyone on the phone’” — and that, during the conversation, Musk agreed that engineering talent inevitably followed manufacturing. “He said one hundred per cent, my engineering is where my manufacturing is.”

· “There’s a lot of debate about how I came to where I am,” Lighthizer said. “And I lean back on the fact that I’m from Ashtabula. But the reality is, it’s probably more to do with being a contrarian. With being anti-élite.”

· Regarding Trump’s latest trade policy ideas. The article says: “Lighthizer, having lost his bid to join the White House, was left in a similar position to the rest of us, trying to weigh Trump’s populist posture against the obvious circle of interested oligarchs who surround him.”

“Now, what happens if all the billionaires tell him the world blows up if he tries?” Lighthizer said. “I don’t know what happens.”

The article ended by noting Lighthizer “sounded contemplative, trying to imagine the incentives of the particular men who might now wield influence over the President.” Said Lighthizer: “I don’t know — I don’t know how billionaires think. I’ve never been one.”

Bottom line: As Lighthizer weighs his legacy, he highlights the systemic flaws of free trade and the devastating impact on manufacturing towns like his hometown of Ashtabula, Ohio. Yet, questions linger: Can Trump’s populist rhetoric and Lighthizer’s vision truly disrupt entrenched trade norms, or will they simply perpetuate the economic status quo?

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, Jan. 27
· President Donald Trump meets with Republican House members at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Fla.
· U.S./Japan cooperation. Wilson Center’s Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition virtual discussion on “US and Japan Collaborating on Energy Security and Infrastructure.”

Tuesday, Jan. 28
· Panama Canal. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on “Examining the Panama Canal and Its Impact on U.S. Trade and National Security.” Federal Maritime Commission Chairman Louis E. Sola among those testifying.
· China human rights. Hudson Institute discussion on “China Human Rights Policy for the New Administration.”
· Conservatism. Heritage Foundation virtual 2025 Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture on “common-sense conservatism.”
· Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion on “The North Caucasus and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.”
· Congressional outlook. R Street Institute Data Privacy Day event, focusing on “Opportunities for the 119th Congress.”

Wednesday, Jan. 29
· Nomination hearing: Commerce. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the nomination of Howard Lutnick to be Commerce secretary.
· Nomination hearing: HHS. Senate Finance Committee hearing on the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be HHS secretary.
· Nomination hearing: SBA. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on the nomination of Kelly Loeffler to be administrator of the Small Business Administration.
· Nomination vote: DOJ. Senate Judiciary Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Pamela Bondi to be attorney general.
· Committee organization: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
· U.S./China competition. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual conference on “Transatlantic Perspectives on U.S./China Geoeconomic Competition.”
· House of Representatives history. American Historical Association briefing on “historical perspectives on how the United States House of Representatives has changed since its creation.”
· Nuclear power. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Future of Uranium to Jumpstart Nuclear Power in the 21st Century.”
· Antimicrobial resistance. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “The Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance.”
· Small business outlook. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “2025 Small Business Update.”
· Clean energy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on environmental sustainability and clean energy.
· Climate situation. Environmental and Energy Study Institute “Congressional Climate Camp” briefing on “Navigating Climate Information for Effective Policymaking.”

Thursday, Jan. 30
· Nomination hearing: FBI. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Kash Patel to be director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
· Nomination hearing: HHS. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be HHS secretary.
· Nomination hearing: National Intelligence. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to be director of national intelligence.
· Nomination hearing: UN representative. Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be U.S. representative to the United Nations.
· H-2A issues. Wilson Center virtual discussion on “U.S. Farm Labor and H-2A Visas: The Road Ahead.”
· DNC meeting. Democratic National Committee winter meeting; runs through Saturday.
· U.S./Korea relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Trump 2.0 and the Two Koreas.”
· U.S./Africa relations. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (discussion on “Priorities for the US Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa.”
· China influence. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “The Malign Influence of the People’s Republic of China at Home and Abroad: Recommendations for Policy Makers.”
· The future of Ukraine. Council on Foreign Relations discussion on “Securing Ukraine’s Future: What Should the United States Do?”
· AI and homeland security. RAND Corporation virtual discussion on “Artificial Intelligence and Homeland Security.”
· Semiconductor innovation. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation virtual discussion on “Scale Matters: Understanding the Economics of Global Semiconductor Innovation.”
· EU regulations. Atlantic Council discussion on “A transatlantic strategy for competitiveness and innovation,” focusing on “the EU’s forthcoming regulatory initiatives.”
· State voting rights acts. Center for American Progress and the Legal Defense Fund virtual discussion for a new video series on “Winning the Fight for Voting Rights: State Voting Rights Acts.”
· U.S. policy on China, cartels. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “A Hemisphere at Stake: China, Cartels, and the Path Forward for U.S. Policy.”
· Trump administration. Common Good virtual discussion on “Trump’s Second Term: Aberration or the New Norm?” — part of its “Post Election Series: Political Shock Waves.”

Friday, Jan. 31
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gives brief remarks on the Economy, and Perspectives on Mutual and Community Banks.
· Iran nuclear threat. National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar on “The Middle East Missile Update and the Iranian Nuclear Threat.”

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

Focus on central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve. Canada and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions. U.S. Fed officials are widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady. At their December confab, policymakers signaled just two interest-rate cuts this year. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a slowdown after two consecutive 50 basis-point cuts at a time President Donald Trump’s tariffs threats are generating considerable uncertainty.

Monday, Jan. 27
· Chicago Fed National Activity Index
· New Home Sales
· Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

Tuesday, Jan. 28
· Durable Goods Orders
· S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI
· FHFA House Price Index
· Consumer Confidence
· Richmond Fed Manufacturing

Wednesday, Jan. 29
· The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision. Analysts widely anticipate a 25-basis point cut, which would lower the policy rate from 3.25% to 3.00%. This expectation is based on recent economic indicators and ongoing global trade uncertainties. The Bank of Canada has been on a rate-cutting trajectory since June 2024, reducing rates by a cumulative 1.75 percentage points to support economic growth amid various challenges. The upcoming decision will be accompanied by the release of the Monetary Policy Report, providing insights into the Bank’s economic outlook and the factors influencing its policy decisions.
· International Trade in Goods
· Wholesale Inventories
· FOMC meeting conclusion: While the Fed has implemented rate cuts in recent months, officials have indicated a cautious approach moving forward, with no immediate plans for further reductions.
· Fed Chair press conference

Thursday, Jan. 30
· Jobless Claims
· GDP
· Pending Home Sales Index
· Fed Balance Sheet
· Money Supply
· European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB’s Governing Council is scheduled to convene. Analysts anticipate a 25-basis point rate cut, which would lower the deposit rate from 3% to 2.75%, continuing the bank’s monetary easing efforts.

Friday, Jan. 31
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gives brief remarks on the Economy, and Perspectives on Mutual and Community Banks.
· Personal Income & Outlays
· Employment Cost Index
· Chicago PMI

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Ag focus: Commodity traders and farmers will be watching any new reports regarding Trump’s threatened tariffs. USDA will release its grain and soy export inspection data Monday, while Malaysia’s palm oil export figures for January come Friday. Chinese markets will be closed during Jan. 28-Feb. 4.

Energy focus: Majors including Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and IOC will report earnings during the week.

Monday, Jan. 27

Ag reports and events:
· Export Inspections
· Peanut Stocks and Processing

Energy reports and events:
· Earnings: IOC
· Holiday: South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, Iraq

Tuesday, Jan. 28

Ag reports and events:
· EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
· Livestock and Meat Domestic Data

Energy reports and events:
· API US inventory report
· Hyvolution conference, Paris; runs through Thursday
· Brent options for March expire
· Earnings: Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
· Holiday: China, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan

Wednesday, Jan. 29

Ag reports and events:
· Broiler Hatchery
· Egg Products

Energy reports and events:
· EIA Petroleum Status Report
· Weekly Ethanol Production
· Genscape weekly crude inventory report
· Earnings: Hess 4Q
· Holiday: China, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Azerbaijan

Thursday, Jan. 30

Ag reports and events:
· Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
· Export Sales
· Citrus: World Markets and Trade
· Slaughter Weekly

Energy reports and events:
· EIA Natural Gas Report
· Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
· North Sea loading program (March)
· Earnings: Shell 4Q, Valero 4Q, Baker Hughes 4Q, Mesaieed Petrochemical
· Holiday: China, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam; Taiwan, Hong Kong

Friday, Jan. 31

Ag reports and events:
· CFTC Commitments of Traders
· Malaysia’s January palm oil exports
· Agricultural Prices
· Cattle
· Sheep and Goats
· Peanut Prices

Energy reports and events:
· ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
· Baker-Hughes Rig Count
· Brent futures for March expire
· Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Phillips 66, ONGC, Imperial Oil, LyondellBasell
· Holiday: China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong

KEY DATES IN JANUARY

26: AFC and NFC football championships
27: First day IRS will begin accepting 2024 federal tax returns
28: Florida’s 1st and 6th special primaries
28-29: FOMC meeting and presser
31: Employers and financial institutions should send out W-2 and 1099 tax forms
31: Federal Open Market Committee meets
31: USDA Cattle

LINKS