Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 8, 2025
— Global equities moved higher at the open on Tuesday, reversing course from a four-day losing streak fueled by global tariff tensions. A 5.6% rebound in Japan’s Nikkei far outpaced other regional markets, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tasked with leading trade negotiations with Tokyo (see related item below). U.S equity futures signal a modest recovery as investors look for dip-buying opportunities while awaiting clarity on how the U.S. trade policies will play out. — Banking chiefs held call about Trump tariffs: Sky News. Chief executives of Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays and HSBC held a call on Sunday to discuss the effects of tariffs on financial markets and the global economy, Sky News reports, citing sources. The call was convened by the Bank Policy Institute, a Washington-based public policy group, according to the report. — EU plans 25% tariffs on U.S. goods, spares bourbon and dairy; tariff rollout staggered through December; soybeans delayed to year-end. The European Union is preparing to impose tariffs of up to 25% on select U.S. goods, but will notably exclude high-profile items like bourbon, wine, and dairy products, according to the Financial Times. Under the proposed plan, products such as orange juice, poultry, and soybeans will be targeted, though with varying rates: 10% instead of 25% for some, and a delayed implementation for others. Tariffs will be staggered between April 15 and Dec. 1, with soybean levies postponed until the latter date. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized a strategic approach: “We are not in the business of tit-for-tat or penny for penny,” noting that the list was shaped in consultation with EU member states. Final approval is expected Wednesday. — Beijing signals policy shift with weakest yuan fixing since 2023, stirring global currency markets. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.2038 per U.S. dollar, breaching the symbolic 7.20 level for the first time since September 2023. Analysts interpret this as a soft devaluation intended to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports. The move is seen as a calibrated policy shift — designed to boost export competitiveness without triggering market instability. Beijing is expected to avoid a sharp devaluation, fearing capital flight and damage to investor confidence. Regional currencies including the Indian rupee, Thai baht, Korean won, and Malaysian ringgit weakened in response, as dollar demand surged, and regional economic pressure intensified. The move comes against the backdrop of escalating U.S./China trade tensions, with tit-for-tat tariffs reemerging under President Trump’s administration. China’s strategy appears aimed at offsetting trade losses while avoiding direct confrontation. Of note: A weaker yuan makes Chinese goods more affordable abroad, helping exporters absorb tariff shocks. Capital Flight Concerns: Past devaluations triggered capital outflows into assets like Bitcoin or stablecoins — a risk authorities remain wary of. — Tariffs update: Trump ups trade pressure on China, engages allies. President Donald Trump ratcheted up his trade offensive against China on Monday, issuing an ultimatum: remove retaliatory duties or face a steep 50% tariff hike. Simultaneously, Trump signaled an openness to deepen trade ties with Japan and Israel, launching new tariff negotiations as part of a broader realignment of U.S. trade priorities. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he doesn’t expect any deals with countries before the higher tariffs kick in on April 9. Bessent, speaking in an interview, also says that generally, he is optimistic about the outcome of negotiations with “all” countries (More details on these topics follow.) The president warned that talks with Beijing could be “terminated” altogether, emphasizing a hardline stance, while other countries — including Vietnam and the EU — are offering concessions such as full duty eliminations to maintain favorable access to the U.S. market. Navarro more aggressive. In an op-ed for the Financial Times, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro accused foreign governments of using “non-tariff weapons” to block U.S. exports, describing the global trade environment as stacked against American manufacturers. “Trump is always willing to listen,” Navarro wrote, “but the cheating must stop.” This move reinforces Trump’s carrot-and-stick strategy: punishing uncooperative rivals while rewarding allies who come to the table with concessions. — Bessent steps in to shift Trump’s trade talk. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flew to Florida on Sunday to deliver a pointed message to President Donald Trump: start talking about trade negotiations or risk further market chaos. According to Politico, citing two people familiar with the private conversation, Bessent urged Trump to clarify that the endgame of his aggressive tariff rollout is to secure better trade deals — not permanent economic confrontation. Bessent, who returned to the White House alongside Trump on Marine One Sunday night, warned that without a rhetorical pivot, investor confidence would continue to erode. “The markets will keep melting unless you shift,” one source quoted Bessent as saying. — President Trump threatened Monday to hit China with an additional 50% tariff if Beijing doesn’t lower its 34% retaliatory tariff on the U.S. by Tuesday. “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Background. The White House assigned one of the steepest levies — 34% — to China, on top of a 20% tariff imposed earlier this year, meaning the tax would climb to over 100% if Trump follows through with his latest threat. In response, Beijing imposed its own 34% tariffs on U.S. products. China’s embassy in Washington described Trump’s tariffs as a “hegemonic move” toward “unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying” that only serve the “selfish interests” of the U.S. “We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not the right way to engage with us. China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in a statement after the U.S. threatened more tariffs. “The U.S. threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which once again exposes the blackmail nature of the US,” the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a Tuesday statement. “If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” Trump said he has “a great relationship with President Xi. I hope it’s going to stay that way. I have great respect for China, but they can’t do this,” adding that “we’ll be talking to China.” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has said that over 50 countries have tried to talk with Trump about his tariff mandate, and the president met face-to-face with Israeli Prime Minister Benjmain Netanyahu Monday afternoon. Of note: Trump administration officials have indicated it is not just nominal tariffs that must be lowered but also nontariff trade barriers such as VAT taxes and other policies must be addressed. Says China watcher Bill Bishop: “Whether or not a key goal of this messy and seemingly incoherent process is to isolate China and block its use of third-party countries to trans-ship goods to the US, Xi must believe it is. U.S./China relations seem like they may already in a much worse place than they ever were during the first Trump administration.” — Another China watcher comments about U.S./China trade skirmish. At an event by the conservative Hudson Institute on Monday, Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, argued that China’s economy, heavily reliant on exports to advanced markets, lacked the flexibility to quickly find trading alternatives to the U.S. “There’s no substitute for American demand,” he said, adding that China’s industrial structure made it difficult to absorb losses from diminished access to the U.S. market. Miran acknowledged that allied support would help isolate China more effectively but insisted that Washington would not back down. “The president is a fabled negotiator,” he said, expressing confidence that Trump would secure deals. — Bessent flags Japan as top trade priority in wake of new tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that Japan will take priority in the U.S.’ upcoming trade negotiations, underscoring its strategic importance as both a military ally and major economic partner. In an interview with Fox Business, Bessent praised Japan’s swift diplomatic outreach following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs — highlighting Tokyo’s proactive stance in securing talks. The tariffs include a 10% baseline levy on all imports, with reciprocal hikes targeting specific countries. Japan, in particular, faces a 24% tariff on select goods and a 25% tariff on automobile imports, sparking concern from Japanese officials and global markets. Why it matters: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has voiced his concerns, urging a shift toward investment-driven cooperation rather than economic confrontation. With both nations anchoring the Indo-Pacific strategy, the stakes are high for maintaining alliance cohesion while rebalancing trade terms. Bessent, alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will spearhead the talks, with President Trump expected to be actively involved. Negotiations will cover a broad range of issues: tariffs, non-tariff barriers, currency policies, and government subsidies. Of note: Ishiba and Trump spoke on the phone Monday and agreed to appoint Cabinet-level officials to handle the bilateral talks, which are usually led by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. That the Treasury secretary will represent the American side could be an indication that Washington seeks to address what it sees as the yen’s weakness against the dollar. During the phone call, Ishiba expressed “strong concern” that the 24% tariff announced Wednesday by Trump will reduce the ability of Japanese companies to invest in the U.S., urging the president to reconsider it. Ishiba told Trump that their countries should consider a “comprehensive approach to cooperation that benefits both sides, including by expanding investments, instead of unilateral tariffs.” — Netanyahu pledges to erase U.S./Israel trade deficit in White House meeting. In a show of alignment with former President Donald Trump’s longstanding trade stance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to eliminate the trade deficit between the U.S. and Israel during a meeting in the Oval Office. “We intend to do it very quickly. We think it’s the right thing to do. And we’re also going to eliminate trade barriers,” Netanyahu said while seated beside Trump. “I think Israel can serve as a model for other countries who ought to do the same.” Trump has frequently criticized trade imbalances, often using them to justify reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Netanyahu’s pledge appears aimed at reinforcing economic ties with the U.S. and aligning with Trump’s America-first trade rhetoric — particularly as both leaders eye politically pivotal futures. — Trump rejects EU tariff-free proposal. President Trump flatly rejected a European Union proposal to eliminate tariffs on industrial products in a so-called “zero-for-zero” deal, signaling no intention to walk back the sweeping new global tariffs unveiled earlier this month. “We’re not looking at that,” Trump told reporters when asked if the EU offer could be a starting point for negotiations. “The EU has been very tough over the years… it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade.” The EU’s offer would have eliminated tariffs on goods like cars, plastics, chemicals, and machinery — mirroring similar deals Europe has struck with other partners. But Trump dismissed the proposal, reiterating grievances over longstanding trade deficits, agricultural access, and the EU’s 10% duties on U.S. cars. “We have a [trade] deficit with the European Union of $350 billion — and it’s going to disappear fast,” Trump said, adding that one way to fix the imbalance is for Europe to start buying U.S. energy. This escalation could complicate U.S./EU diplomatic relations ahead of the G7 summit and sharpen debates on protectionism versus globalization in the 2025 election cycle. Trump is betting that his tariff approach will resonate with industrial and energy-producing states, particularly in the Rust Belt. — Trump White House: ‘Team Tariff’ vs. ‘Team Deal’. Trump administration officials remain split regarding tariffs. Musk struck a more optimistic tone, saying over the weekend he was “hopeful” about a future “zero-tariff situation” and a potential free-trade zone between Europe and North America. — India weathers the trade war storm. While global markets took a beating from President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout, India emerged as a relative bright spot. Though Indian stocks dipped on Monday, the decline was notably smaller compared to sharp losses in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe. Analysts point to several factors behind India’s resilience. Investors are optimistic that New Delhi, by steering clear of retaliatory tariffs and leveraging Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s warm rapport with Trump, could strike a favorable trade deal. Additionally, India may benefit from supply chain shifts as global firms look to move production out of higher-tariff Asian nations. A notable example: Apple is reportedly planning to ship more iPhones from India to the U.S. in a bid to sidestep China-related tariffs, according to the Wall Street Journal. Upshot: India isn’t immune to global trade tensions — but it’s looking a lot more insulated than most. — Trump announces nuclear talks with Iran amid tensions. In a significant diplomatic move, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will hold “direct” nuclear talks with Iran on Saturday — the first such engagement in a decade. Speaking from the Oval Office alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said the talks are aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and warned that Iran would be “in great danger” if negotiations fail. However, Iranian officials painted a different picture, telling reporters that Saturday’s meeting will be indirect, though they expressed openness to direct discussions if initial talks progress positively. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes rose from recent hefty losses while U.S. equity futures signal strong opening gains today. Optimism about tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan sent the Nikkei higher by 6%+ while Chinese shares rallied after the PBOC pledged stimulus efforts to shore up financial markets amid recent volatility.
Equities yesterday:
U.S. stocks swung sharply Monday as conflicting signals on tariffs against China triggered extreme volatility on Wall Street. Markets initially plunged after President Donald Trump renewed threats to raise duties on Chinese goods — only to bounce back momentarily following a false social media post suggesting a blanket pause on tariffs was under consideration. In a dramatic seven-minute surge, the S&P 500 briefly gained over $2.5 trillion in market value, only to see those gains vanish just as fast once the rumor was debunked. The chaos follows last week’s historic selloff, fueled by mounting fears of a U.S. recession. Monday’s trading reflected just how skittish investors remain, with geopolitical uncertainty and policy unpredictability now driving major price swings in real time.
— For the first quarter, analysts now see earnings growth of 6.7% for S&P 500 companies, down from about 11.1% in early November when Trump was elected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. For all of 2025, they see profits rising 9.4%, compared with a projection of 12.5% at the beginning of the year.
— Quote of note: “Typically a market drawdown of 20% is when investors jump in across the board to buy, but we don’t think this time is it. What we’re seeing right now is very elevated uncertainty. There’s lots of moving parts and it’s impossible to have clarity beyond the very near term.” Wei Li, Global chief investment strategist, BlackRock.
— Recession watch: Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, Larry Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, the money management firm, conceded that “most CEOs I’ve talked to would say we are probably in a recession right now”.
| AG MARKETS |
— U.S. ag trade: Imports plunge, but deficit persists; February shows signs of improvement, but red ink still flows. U.S. agricultural trade showed a modest improvement in February as both exports and imports declined. Exports fell to $13.59 billion, down $830 million from January, while imports dropped more sharply by $2.81 billion to $17.86 billion. That narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, a notable improvement from January’s record shortfall of $6.25 billion.
Despite the monthly gains, the broader picture remains troubling. Through the first five months of fiscal year (FY) 2025, the U.S. has racked up an agricultural trade deficit of $16.25 billion, with $77.56 billion in exports and $93.81 billion in imports. That’s nearly four times larger than the $4.24 billion deficit seen at the same point in FY 2024, which ended with a record $31.78 billion gap.
The last monthly surplus came back in November 2023, underscoring how persistent the imbalance has become. According to USDA projections, U.S. agricultural exports are expected to reach $170.5 billion in FY 2025, requiring an average of $13.27 billion per month from here on out. Imports are forecast to hit a record $199.5 billion, which would require monthly averages of $17.96 billion to stay on track.
From March to September 2024, monthly averages stood at $13.69 billion for exports and $17.62 billion for imports, suggesting that trade flows remain within USDA’s projected range — though just barely.
Looking ahead: As new tariff policies come into focus, U.S. agricultural trade flows could shift. But with inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions in the mix, the magnitude and direction of these changes remain uncertain.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Oil prices were up around 1% on Tuesday, rebounding from a near four-year low in the previous session on concerns that U.S. tariffs might depress demand and lead to a global recession, though analysts warned downside risks remain. Brent futures were up 66 cents, or 1%, at $64.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.37.
— Oil prices sank 2% on Monday, hitting their lowest levels since April 2021 amid mounting global trade tensions and growing fears of a recession. Brent crude settled at $64.21 per barrel, down $1.37 (2.1%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.29 (2.1%) to close at $60.70. Both benchmarks had already declined around 11% the previous week. The escalating trade war rattled markets and prompted major banks to revise forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession odds to 45%, while JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of a global economic downturn. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley slashed their Brent crude outlooks, reflecting deepening anxiety over the macro fallout of continued trade hostilities.
— Grassley, Klobuchar lead call for higher RFS volumes to support clean energy and rural economies. In a bipartisan push, Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) — joined by at least 16 Senate colleagues — sent a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin urging the agency to increase 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels.
Highlights from the letter:
- Environmental impact: The senators stress that biomass-based diesel cuts lifecycle carbon emissions by over 70%, positioning it as a key player in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, rail, and heavy-duty trucking.
- Economic rationale: Higher RFS volumes would boost demand for American-grown feedstocks, support rural economies, and strengthen energy security. The lawmakers argue current Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) are too low, stalling industry growth and investment.
- Correcting course: Grassley criticized the Biden administration’s 2023–2025 RFS rule for setting volumes too low — leading to biodiesel plant closures in Iowa and elsewhere. The senators are urging the EPA to use up-to-date production data to set more ambitious, realistic targets for 2026.
- Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs): The letter calls on the EPA to restore any gallons waived under SREs into the total RFS obligation, ensuring market consistency and fairness. SREs have long drawn criticism for undercutting demand for renewable fuels.
Small refineries are sounding the alarm over proposed increases to biofuel blending mandates, warning of potential economic damage and rising compliance costs. In a recent letter to President Donald Trump, executives from eight small refineries argued that higher mandates would significantly drive up prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) — the credits used to satisfy RFS obligations. The group emphasized that as “captive buyers” in the RIN market, small refineries face “irreparable harm” and that these costs could ripple down to consumers.
This pushback follows a joint meeting between oil and biofuel groups with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), where the coalition advocated for boosting biomass-based diesel blending volumes. Their proposal includes raising the 2026 mandate to 5.25 billion gallons, up from 3.35 billion gallons set for 2025. While biofuel producers argue the increase is aligned with industry capacity and climate goals, refiners say the expanded targets would heighten compliance costs and strain small operators.
Historically, small refineries have sought relief through Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), a contentious measure that reduces their blending obligations. Critics argue that such exemptions weaken biofuel demand and undermine the RFS’s environmental objectives.
EPA is expected to finalize new RFS volumes later this year.
| TRADE POLICY |
— U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is to present the administration’s 2025 trade policy agenda to the Senate Finance Committee today, where he is likely to face tough questions about the tariffs’ impact. Trump has argued that tariffs are crucial for restoring the U.S. as a manufacturing power, reducing trade deficits and raising government revenue. Greer plans to argue that Trump’s tariff strategy is “already bearing fruit,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks (link). “Nearly 50 countries have approached me to discuss the president’s new policy and explore how to achieve reciprocity,” he plans to say.
Of note: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters that the markets need to see specific trade negotiations for things to calm down. “The markets are not going to cease in voting no-confidence until they begin to see that,” said Tillis, who’s up for re-election in 2026. Tillis has warned that the tariffs could even undermine Republicans’ reconciliation bill.
— Bessent outlines economic pivot: federal layoffs, tariffs, and factory rehiring under Trump 2.0. In a provocative interview with Tucker Carlson on April 7, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled key elements of the Trump administration’s emerging economic strategy — a blend of protectionist trade policies, aggressive government downsizing, and an attempt to redirect laid-off federal employees into the manufacturing sector.
Trade restructuring & tariffs. Bessent confirmed President Trump’s intent to reorder U.S. trade policy through sweeping tariffs aimed at revitalizing domestic manufacturing. These tariffs are expected to generate thousands of new factory jobs, which the administration proposes to fill with former federal workers displaced by public sector downsizing.
Federal workforce reductions. Labeling parts of the federal government as “surplus labor,” Bessent explained that shrinking the bureaucracy is seen as essential to cutting federal debt and redirecting labor to the private sector. However, critics warn that many laid-off workers have highly specialized skills — ill-suited for factory work.
Automation & AI acknowledgment. Bessent conceded that AI and automation will reduce the need for factory labor, complicating efforts to absorb ex-federal employees into manufacturing roles. This acknowledgment undercuts the administration’s broader narrative of job creation through tariffs.
Private sector “re-leveraging.” Bessent likened the current economic system to a “bodybuilder on steroids” — appearing strong but internally weak due to over-regulation. He called for structural shifts to empower private enterprise, suggesting that under Biden, the sector was overly burdened.
The message is clear: under Trump 2.0, the government intends to shrink itself to grow the private sector — but whether laid-off bureaucrats can really power the next wave of American manufacturing remains an open question.
— Senate and House companion bills impacting trade policy are going nowhere. A bipartisan Senate bill that would limit the president’s power to impose tariffs now has seven Republican co-sponsors. But the White House officially said Trump would veto the legislation if it reached his desk, meaning it would take two-thirds of the GOP-controlled House and Senate to turn it into law. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said of the bill: “I don’t think that has a future.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Congress would give Trump “the space necessary” to handle tariffs. That hasn’t stopped various media outlets from focusing on the trade bills that will not be signed into law.
Of note: President Trump mocked his trade-policy critics as “Weak and Stupid” while pledging to veto bipartisan legislation from Sen. Grassley and others that would return some control over enacting tariffs to Congress. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is pursuing similar legislation in the House. As previously noted, neither are likely to see floor action.
— Trump team weighs exporter tax credit amid tariff fallout. Trump administration officials are actively debating the creation of a year-end exporter tax credit aimed at cushioning U.S. companies from the economic blowback of President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. This move — still in the early stages and not yet reviewed by President Trump or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — reveals growing internal concern over the potential damage of the administration’s trade agenda.
The proposed rebate would support U.S. manufacturers and potentially service exporters affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs. It is envisioned as an annual credit and would require congressional approval. Some advisers are also exploring ways to extend benefits to U.S. importers, who are likely to face more immediate cost pressures.
The tax credit idea reflects concerns among Trump’s advisers that the tariff strategy — intended to push companies to manufacture domestically — may inflict short-term pain before any industrial reshoring gains materialize. Economists warn that reconstructing global supply chains could take years, and the immediate effect may be increased inflation and recession risks.
| CONGRESS |
— GOP considers 40% millionaire tax to offset tipped wage cuts. In a notable pivot from traditional GOP orthodoxy, some key Republicans are now open to hiking taxes on millionaires to fund new tax cuts aimed at middle- and working-class Americans. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, said he supports the idea of a new 40% tax bracket on incomes above $1 million. “You are only raising it a couple of points,” Harris noted, calling it a “reasonable way to pay for” President Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tipped wages. Currently, the top individual tax rate stands at 37% for incomes above $626,350.
Return to pre-Trump levels? Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) also voiced openness to restoring the 39.6% rate — the top bracket before Trump’s 2017 tax overhaul — particularly with carveouts for business owners who file individually.
The GOP’s willingness to entertain tax hikes on the wealthy marks a shift from its long-held doctrine of supply-side economics. Trump’s populist brand of conservatism is increasingly reshaping the party’s economic stance, particularly on tax fairness.
Congress is preparing to reauthorize and expand provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Republicans aim to cut taxes further — including on overtime pay and for older Americans — but are facing budgetary limits that require new revenue sources or spending cuts.
The House may vote as soon as this week on a budget resolution to enable Republicans to pass tax legislation through reconciliation, bypassing Democratic support. With narrow margins, the Freedom Caucus holds significant sway over the outcome.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott announced the special election for the 18th District will be Nov. 4. Abbott has been criticized by Democrats for delaying the election to fill late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner’s seat.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— SNAP debate heats up as House GOP eyes $230 billion in cuts. The House Ag Committee is convening today for the first public meeting this Congress on Republican-led efforts to cut agricultural spending by $230 billion over the next decade — most of it targeting the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). At the heart of the debate: stricter work requirements versus food security for millions.
House Republicans argue that SNAP expenditures have ballooned—up over 400% since 2002—and must be reined in. Their proposed reforms include:
- Raising the work requirement age from 54 to 56 for able-bodied adults without dependents
- Restricting state waivers that exempt some individuals from work requirements
- Rolling back benefit boosts tied to the updated Thrifty Food Plan under President Biden
GOP leaders claim these changes could save billions without affecting current benefit levels. However, some lawmakers admit more drastic cuts may be needed to meet broader fiscal goals.
Democrats are pushing back hard, warning that slashing SNAP would harm more than 40 million Americans who rely on the program. Key concerns include:
- Economic impact: Every $1 in SNAP generates $1.50 in economic activity, benefiting farmers, grocers, and supply chains
- Food insecurity: Cuts could hit hardest in rural areas already facing high food prices
- Legislative pushback: Democrats have introduced the Hunger-Free Future Act of 2025 to protect SNAP from partisan-driven rollbacks
— U.S. halts humanitarian aid: WFP warns of global hunger crisis. In a dramatic policy shift, the Trump administration has cut over $1.3 billion in humanitarian aid, terminating U.S. funding for the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) and other critical relief efforts. The move, described by WFP officials as a potential “death sentence” for millions, impacts emergency food and medical support across 14 crisis-hit nations.
U.S. contributions slashed: Previously the largest donor to the WFP, the U.S. contributed $4.5 billion of the agency’s $9.8 billion budget last year. Total Cuts: $1.3 billion+, including:
- $562M – Afghanistan
- $237M – Syria
- $170M – Somalia
- $107M – Yemen
60+ termination letters sent: Affecting food, water, medical care, and shelter programs for displaced populations worldwide.
WFP Executive Director Cindy McCain warned the cuts will “undermine global stability” and fuel migration, hunger, and conflict. The U.N. and aid groups are scrambling to engage U.S. officials, but face resistance from an administration seeking to dismantle foreign aid under the banner of “efficiency.”
— Maine sues USDA, citing harm to child nutrition programs. The state of Maine filed a federal lawsuit against USDA and Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, alleging the agency’s freeze on federal funding unlawfully threatens its child nutrition efforts. The move follows Maine’s refusal to comply with a Trump-era executive order banning transgender athletes from competing in girls’ and women’s sports — a policy linked to Title IX enforcement.
Although Secretary Rollins stated the freeze does not impact direct food assistance such as the National School Lunch Program, Maine’s Attorney General Aaron Frey argues that crucial administrative funds — covering salaries, equipment, and meal provider reimbursements — have been blocked. These resources are vital to sustaining meal services for children and vulnerable adults.
Maine asserts that USDA violated the Administrative Procedure Act by enacting the freeze without due process — namely, by not conducting an investigation, holding hearings, or issuing formal findings. The state also argues that Title IX does not bar transgender athletes from girls’ sports, pointing to federal court rulings that support this interpretation.
Maine’s child nutrition programs were expecting:
- $1.8 million in federal funds for the fiscal year
- $900,000+ in now-inaccessible grants
- $3 million projected for summer meal initiatives
This legal clash underscores growing tensions between Maine and the Trump administration over transgender rights and education policy. President Trump previously warned Governor Janet Mills that federal funding could be withheld over noncompliance. Mills has defended the state’s stance, saying it aligns with both federal and Maine Human Rights Act protections against discrimination.
Maine is seeking a temporary restraining order to reinstate the suspended funds while the lawsuit proceeds. The case could shape future federal authority over Title IX enforcement and how states interpret and implement related civil rights policies in education.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Snow expected for parts of the eastern Great Lakes, interior Northeast, and northern New England through Tuesday night... ...Strong cold front brings much colder temperatures to the Eastern U.S.... ...Unsettled weather continues across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday... ...Staying dry and trending much warmer than normal across the Southwest U.S the next several days.
| KEY DATES IN MARCH & APRIL |
9: Crop Production Historical Track Records
10: CPI | Crop Production | WASDE
10: The Masters (golf)
11: PPI-FD | Consumer Sentiment
13: Passover begins
14: Crop Progress
15: 2024 income taxes due; last day for 2024 IRS, HSA contributions; first quarter 2025 taxes due
16: Retail Sales
17: Housing Starts and Permits; Cattle on Feed; National Hemp Report
18: Good Friday
20: Easter
21: Crop Progress | Chickens and Eggs
21: Boston Marathon
22: Existing Home Sales | Milk Production
23: New Home Sales
24: Durable Goods Orders | Cold Storage
25: Food Price Outlook | Consumer Sentiment
28: Crop Progress
29: International Trade in Goods | JOLTS | Consumer Confidence | Meat Animals - Prod., Disp., and Income | Milk - Prod., Disp., and Income | Poultry - Production and Value
30: ADP Employment | Employment Cost Index | GDP | Personal Income and Outlays incl. PCE Price Index | Ag Prices
| LINKS |
Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Eggs/HPAI | NEC task force on HPAI, egg prices | Options for HPAI/Egg prices | Trump tariffs | Greer responses to lawmakers | Trump reciprocal tariffs |