USDA made substantial revisions to its 2025 food inflation forecast, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food now projected to rise by 1.9%, down from 2.5% in November. Grocery prices are expected to increase by just 0.8%, a sharp decrease from the 1.6% previously forecast. Restaurant prices, however, are now forecasted to rise 3.5%, up from 3.1%.
Among specific food categories, egg prices are a notable outlier. USDA predicts an 11.4% increase, compared to 3.4% previously. The forecast range for egg prices widened significantly, with estimates from a 9.2% decline to a 37.7% increase. Three food categories are expected to see price declines in 2025: processed fruits and vegetables (-1.0%), cereals and bakery products (-1.6%), and the broader “other foods” category (-0.9%).
2024 Price Forecasts Hold Steady. For 2024, USDA kept its projections unchanged for three consecutive months:
- Overall food prices: +2.3%
- Grocery prices: +1.2%
- Restaurant prices: +4.1%
Notable declines are expected in fish and seafood prices (-1.9%) and dairy products (-0.3%).
Long-Term Context. While 2025 food price increases are expected to remain below the 20-year average in most categories, volatile sectors like eggs and nonalcoholic beverages buck the trend. For 2024, beef and veal (+5.5%) and egg prices (+7.7%) are projected to rise significantly above their 20-year averages. The revisions suggest that food inflation is moderating but emphasize the rarity of overall grocery price declines, seen only in 2016 and 2017. These trends raise doubts about political promises to curb food costs effectively.