USDA to Maintain Mexican Cattle Imports Despite New Screwworm Case

Rollins on key topics | USDA trying to rehire | Lutnick confirmed as Commerce Sec.

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February 18, 2025 07:32 PM

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. 18, 2025, Part 2

— USDA to maintain Mexican cattle imports despite new screwworm case. USDA announced it will not impose new restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico despite the latest detection of New World screwworm in a cow from Tabasco state. The decision follows the agency’s implementation of a pre-clearance inspection and treatment protocol, which aims to ensure safe livestock movement and mitigate screwworm risks. This comes after a previous screwworm case prompted Washington to halt Mexican cattle shipments in November, exacerbating already tight U.S. cattle supplies. On Feb. 1, USDA’s APHIS announced the resumption of cattle and bison imports from Mexico under a new comprehensive protocol. With herd levels at a 74-year low and high beef prices, traders had speculated during Tuesday trading that another import ban might follow, briefly driving up feeder cattle futures.

— USDA scrambles to rehire officials after accidental bird flu firings. USDA admitted to mistakenly firing several officials working on the response to the H5N1 bird flu outbreak and is now working to reverse the decision. “Although several positions supporting [bird flu efforts] were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters,” a USDA spokesperson told NBC News. The error comes amid widespread federal job cuts by the Trump administration, raising concerns among lawmakers about the government’s ability to manage the growing avian flu crisis.

Note: Under the Farm Policy section, see Rollins’s more extensive comments on topics we raised at the Top Producer Summit.

— Lutnick confirmed as Commerce Secretary, will lead trade policy. Howard Lutnick, billionaire CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, was confirmed Tuesday by the Senate as Commerce Secretary in a 51-45 vote. Tasked with spearheading President Trump’s aggressive tariff and trade agenda, Lutnick emphasized using tariffs to bolster national security and revive American manufacturing. He pledged to step down from Cantor and divest his business interests within 90 days. The move to place the U.S. Trade Representative under his purview has sparked congressional concerns over trade leadership.

— Patel nears FBI confirmation. Kash Patel, the controversial nominee for FBI director, moved closer to confirmation as the Senate voted 48-45 on Tuesday to advance his nomination. A final confirmation vote is expected in the coming days for the 10-year post.

— Court blocks Biden’s $475 billion student debt forgiveness plan. A federal appeals court has permanently blocked former President Joe Biden’s $475 billion student debt cancellation plan, ruling that the initiative exceeded constitutional authority. The Eighth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued the decision, stating that Education Secretary Miguel Cardona had overstepped his legal powers in implementing the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan.

Republican-led states challenged the program, arguing it unfairly transferred debt burdens to taxpayers. The ruling follows a previous Supreme Court decision that struck down a similar $430 billion student loan forgiveness plan.

The future of student debt relief remains uncertain under the Trump administration, which has signaled a move to dismantle the Department of Education altogether.

— RFK Jr. unveils bold health policy agenda at HHS. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. outlined an ambitious vision for the department, emphasizing “unbiased science” and a sweeping review of health policies. In his inaugural 22-minute address to employees on Feb. 18, Kennedy signaled a shift in focus, pledging that “nothing is going to be off limits.”

Of note: He promised to keep an open mind, continue asking “difficult questions” and listen to “all the stakeholders” — especially those with whom he has disagreed. “Let’s all depoliticize these issues and reestablish a common ground for action, and renew the search for existential truth with no political impediments and no preconceptions,” he said, adding, “I promise to be willing to be wrong.”

Key initiatives:

· Comprehensive Health Policy Review: Kennedy will scrutinize topics like the childhood vaccine schedule, pesticides, ultra-processed foods, artificial additives, and electromagnetic radiation.
· “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) Commission: Created by an executive order from President Trump, this body will investigate the causes of chronic diseases, focusing on pediatric health and corporate influence on public health policies.
· Addressing Chronic Diseases: The commission will assess links between lifestyle factors, food production, and diseases like diabetes and obesity, issuing its first report within 100 days.
· Food Policy Reforms: Kennedy seeks greater transparency in federally subsidized nutrition programs, advocating for healthier alternatives.
· Vaccine Policy: While upholding the current childhood vaccine schedule, he calls for deeper investigations into vaccine safety and efficacy.
· Subject pesticides to more rigorous examination, including glyphosate. He plans to more strictly enforce residue limits on produce and impose more stringent testing requirements. Kennedy aims to pressure the EPA to deny new pesticide registrations or revoke existing approvals for products like glyphosate.

Kennedy’s agenda has drawn both praise for its transparency and skepticism over potential impacts on public health trust. His leadership at HHS signals a major policy shift, but political and institutional hurdles remain.

— Kennedy targets conflicts of interest at HHS, raising concerns. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced plans to eliminate “conflicts of interest” in HHS advisory committees, aiming to restore public trust. Speaking at his welcome ceremony, Kennedy emphasized “radical transparency” and ethical reforms, echoing past concerns over pharmaceutical ties among agency advisors. His stance could challenge a promise to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) to maintain the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel unchanged. Meanwhile, federal health agencies face significant layoffs following President Trump’s directive to reduce the workforce. The members of those committees often partner with industry; they are currently required to declare those collaborations and recuse themselves from voting on issues in which they have a financial stake.

— Bee crisis: California farmers face rising hive thefts amid shortage. A nationwide honeybee shortage has coincided with a sharp rise in beehive thefts, threatening California’s $7 billion almond industry, the Sacramento Bee newspaper reports (link). With hive thefts reaching record highs—3,492 reported stolen in 2024 alone—growers are struggling to secure enough bees for pollination. Experts cite multiple factors behind the bee crisis, including pests, climate, and pesticide exposure, while sophisticated theft operations further strain supplies. Beekeepers and law enforcement face challenges tracking stolen hives, prompting new partnerships with private investigators. With almond bloom underway, the industry braces for a difficult season ahead.

DOGE

— Judge declines to block Musk team’s foray into federal agencies. Judge Tanya Chutkan declined to grant a request by 14 state attorneys general to temporarily bar Elon Musk and his associates from accessing data at seven federal agencies. Chutkan ruled in a 10-page decision that the attorneys general did not show adequate proof that the states will suffer imminent, irreparable harm without relief.

— Who’s really in charge of DOGE? Elon Musk may be the face of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), but according to the White House, he doesn’t officially run it. While widely perceived as Musk’s creation, DOGE operates under the Office of Management and Budget, with Musk serving only as a senior adviser to President Trump. As a direct adviser to the president, Musk’s advice would likely be shielded by executive privilege. And unlike DOGE’s official host, the Office of Management and Budget, the White House Office isn’t subject to the Freedom of Information Act. Despite its growing influence — slashing budgets and pressuring staff resignations — DOGE remains opaque.

— Bessent defends DOGE initiative amid privacy concerns. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative has already identified an estimated $50 billion in federal savings. Speaking on Fox News, Bessent downplayed concerns over access to taxpayer data, assuring Americans that the team has not yet accessed private information despite Democratic lawmakers’ objections. He emphasized that DOGE’s work could eventually save “several percent of GDP.” However, Senate Democrats and state attorneys general remain critical, citing transparency issues and legal challenges to DOGE’s access to Treasury systems.

— Musk’s government overhaul faces tech challenges seen in California. Elon Musk, acting as a special government employee in the Trump administration, aims to streamline federal operations by cutting public workforce and implementing AI-driven efficiency measures. However, California’s troubled history with government technology suggests significant hurdles, according to a report in the Sacramento Bee (link). Experts warn that while AI can enhance services, government IT projects often face delays, high costs, and political complications. Former California officials emphasize the need for caution, transparency, and robust data infrastructure. Musk’s push to manage the U.S. like a corporation, dubbed “America Incorporated,” raises concerns about government stability, continuity, and oversight.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities Tuesday: The Dow All three indices opened the holiday-shortened week with modest gains that came from a surge higher late in the trading session that also resulted in a record finish for the S&P 500. The Dow ended up 10.26 points, 0.02%, at 44,556.34. The Nasdaq rose 14.49 points, 0.07%, at 20,041.26. The S&P 500 was up 14.95 points, 0.24%, at 6,129.58.

AG MARKETS

— Sugar traders seek tougher delivery rules, raising market concerns. Global sugar traders are pushing for stricter rules on delivery delays at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), aiming to protect buyers who need immediate shipments. Proposed changes include higher costs for sellers delaying loading and clearer rules against bad-faith practices. However, some fear the new regulations could deter sellers, potentially driving up contract prices. ICE is set to vote on the changes by the end of February.

— Agriculture markets Tuesday:
• Corn: March corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.02, nearer the session high and hit a nearly 10-month high.
• Soy complex: March soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $10.38 1/2, marking a high-range close, while March meal fell $2.10 to $293.80. March soyoil rallied 123 points to 47.30, forging a three-month high close.
• Wheat: March SRW futures climbed 4 3/4 cents to $6.04 3/4 and closed nearer session highs. March HRW futures closed 6 cents higher at $6.27 1/4, near session highs. March spring wheat futures rose 7 1/2 cents to $6.41.
• Cotton: March cotton rose 40 points to 67.51 cents, ending the session above the 40-day moving average.
• Cattle: Futures traded mixed to higher Tuesday. Expiring February live cattle slid 30 cents to $197.45, while most-active April futures skidded 22.5 cents to $194.025. In contrast, March feeder futures jumped $3.375 to $269.725.
• Hogs: April lean hogs rose 60 cents to $93.20, nearer the daily low.

FARM POLICY

— Some slightly edited questions and answers from USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins appearance at Tuesday’s Top Producer Summit (Link to our earlier item on Rollins’ comments at the Summit):

Question: Most producers here at Top Producer Summit would argue USDA’s focus has not been on production the past four years. How are you putting the focus back on farmers and ranchers under this new USDA?

Rollins: “The last four years, in watching it asmore of a bystander, I think like a lot of people believe, that the focus of USDA was lost. It was no longer on our farmers and our ranchers. It was on implementing diversity, equity and inclusion programs. It was on moving out things that weren’t necessarily aligned. In the first day, I announced the canceling of almost 2,000 DEI trainings, gender ideology trainings. What does that have to do with getting our sorghum producers back into the black? Nothing. So how do we again realign the entire agency and organization around what Abraham Lincoln’s original intent was when he founded the Department when he was president? And that is supporting and focusing on our community, our farmers in our ranchers.”

Question: There’s some excitement about DOGE in the agcommunity, but there’s also some concern about what DOGE’s findings will reveal about the cost ofcrop insurance and some of those vital programs for farmers, and that some of those programs could be at risk. How much pushback will you have on DOGE? And what is your assurance to producers that some of those vital programs are not at risk?

Rollins: “DOGE has brought, I think, a lot of excitement to all of America. Other than Elizabeth Warren and a few of the Democrats, I think everyone realizes that at this moment in time in American history, this is really important. Having said that, the United States Department of Agriculture and since President Lincoln founded it in 1862, I believe, that the importance of this agency to our farmers and ranchers are the programs like the farm loans, etc. Those are imperative to a thriving rural America. And with President Trump’s 90% approval amongst the rural community, farmers and ranchers have been with him since he came down the escalator in 2015. I sincerely believe that those programs that are essential to keeping those communities thriving will hopefully be even more prosperous going forward, that we’ll work with those to ensure that there is an understanding of how important those are.”

Question: Madam Secretary, there’s a lot of nervousness about RFK Jr. within the ag community, specifically with his comments that glyphosate is poison. You said on stage you’re preparing to have some conversations with him, but how do you balance that to make sure he understands that some of these things he’s said in the past about production agriculture could actually hurt farmers and ranchers?

Rollins: “I know there’s a lot of concern in the community, and I understand that with the confirmation of Secretary Kennedy, RFK, Jr as HHS, some of the things he has said in the past I know would be, if implemented, would be devastating for a lot of our farming community. And I believe, though, and maybe it’s the optimist in me and in the relationship that he and I have built since he joined the team in August of 2024, that I have found him to be extremely reasonable. I know he went through the entire process like I did in meeting with all the senators. The Republican senators had a lot of questions for him. There were a lot of egg state senators, like the senators from here and around the Midwest, but all around the country. And he was, I believe, very truthful and sincere when he said that we will work this together. Will we have disagreements? Probably so. But when we do and this is the benefit of having been in the last West Wing for three years and having worked with President Trump so closely, when those big disagreements happen, we just take them to the president. We go into the Oval Office, we sit in front of the Resolute Desk, the president sits behind, we each make our case. And so, there may be a few of those in the coming months and years. But I am more confident than ever before that he understands the implications, at least a lot of them, of what would happen if some of these more bold ideas of his get implemented. So, I will be there to fight for what we know is right for the community. But also, let me finish with this. I do think what Secretary Kennedy represents is a new day in America, that we do have a chronic childhood obesity disease issue in this country, that a focus on nutrition is really, really important. I’m looking forward to working with him together on things like the food stamp program and the nutrition programs that we haveat USDA and the HHS has with the FDA. So, we’re going to be forced to work together, whether we want to or not, on dietary guidelines and other things. So, there’s a lot of work ahead between the two of us. But I remain optimistic that we will get to the right place for our community.”

Question: How do we know that we’re cutting the right jobs?

Rollins: “Now is the process to start going back and evaluating. And I was not as involved in the initial rounds. I approved it and I’ll take full responsibility. But I was talking to Senator Marshall (R-Kan.) yesterday about a lab in Kansas that had some really important people that were part of that e-mail. And so I know the team back in Washington, led by our chief of staff and our amazing team there, are taking every one of those calls right now and re-evaluating every single decision. So that is the commitment as well that this is not a one and done, good luck, goodbye. This was a first step. Now let’s evaluate and move from there.”

Question: Are ag checkoff programs at risk? DOGE Agriculture is taking a look at some of the checkoff programs. What should we expect there?

Rollins: “That is to be determined. I have not even begun to look at those. I know we’ve got a team looking at them. We’re going to get through the next few weeks and then we’ll start evaluating.”

Question: Disaster aid, and economic aid were approved by Congress Dec. 21. It’s a little slow coming out. But what is the status? What should we expect?

Rollins: “It’s got to move quickly. And now that I’m there, other than avian flu, that’s probably the issues that when I walk out of here, I’ll jump on the phone and we’ll start figuring out again why that isn’t moving more quickly. What we need to do: We’ve got the team in place. But as you can imagine, I just got confirmed a couple of days ago. We have the eight undersecretaries at USDA, one that manages this portfolio. He hasn’t even had his hearing yet. So a little bit of band-aiding and duct taping and bubble gumming this thing together. But please know and all of your listeners and those watching on TV and your readers should know that this is of the highest priority. We have the best team in place, and we are going to move as quickly as humanly possible.”

Question: What is the status on frozen conservation payments? We’re sure that when you sat down and took a look at what was happening out there with all of the IRA money that was sent out across the countryside, you decided to put a freeze on some of that conservation money. EQIP is one of the programs many point to. What’s the status of that? Is that going to be unfrozen yet?

Rollins: “We are talking about that right now. Any commitments that were made previously, we will, of course, fulfill those commitments. That’s the only way to do it. Everything that is forward leaning, that’s what we’re really focusing on, re-evaluating in the current environment.”

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices rose Tuesday amid supply disruptions, but peace talks cap gains. Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday due to supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S., though gains were limited by ongoing peace talks that could ease sanctions on Russian crude. Brent crude rose 62 cents, 0.8%, to $75.84 per barrel, while WTI climbed $1.11, 1.6%, to $71.85.

Key disruptions included Ukrainian drone attacks on a Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pumping station, cutting flows by up to 380,000 bpd, and a storm halting loadings at Russia’s Novorossiisk port. In the U.S., a cold snap in North Dakota reduced output by 150,000 bpd.

Meanwhile, U.S./Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia — held without Ukraine’s participation — kept prices in check, as a potential agreement could increase global supply by lifting sanctions on Russian crude. Analysts remain cautious, with market focus shifting to U.S. crude inventory data and potential OPEC+ production adjustments.

— Trump signals possible restrictions on Chevron’s Venezuela exports. President Donald Trump stated that his administration is reviewing Chevron Corp.’s ability to export crude oil from Venezuela, suggesting potential new constraints. Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said, “We’re looking at that now,” and hinted that current allowances for Chevron and others may change. Despite U.S. sanctions, Chevron has continued operations under pre-existing contracts, recently increasing exports through operational adjustments. The company has not yet commented on the review.

— Midwest refineries to stay dependent on Canadian oil: IEA. Despite potential tariffs, Midwest refineries will likely remain reliant on Canadian crude due to infrastructure constraints, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports. In 2024, Canadian oil accounted for 100% of Midwest refinery imports and 72% of crude runs. Meanwhile, Canadian producers are expected to keep prioritizing U.S. markets, as limited export routes leave few viable alternatives at this juncture.

TRADE POLICY

— Trump signals 25% tariffs on autos, drugs, and chips. President Donald Trump stated he is likely to impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with a formal announcement expected on April 2. Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, he suggested the levies could increase over the following year, particularly for drug imports. Trump emphasized the tariffs aim to encourage companies to establish manufacturing operations in the U.S., allowing them to avoid the new trade barriers.

— Mexico’s Ebrard heads to D.C. for high-stakes trade talks amid rising tensions. Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, will visit Washington, D.C., from Wednesday to Friday for discussions with U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The talks will focus on trade issues, particularly the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and broader economic integration.

Ebrard’s visit comes as President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum, with the threat of broader tariffs looming. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has vowed reciprocal measures if necessary. Analysts warn that escalating tensions could lead to a trade war and economic downturn in Mexico.

Ebrard aims to clarify U.S. trade policies, promote Mexico’s “Made in Mexico” initiative, and strengthen economic ties while avoiding conflict. Discussions will cover tariff impacts, trade relations (which exceeded $800 billion last year), and strategies for economic collaboration.

CONGRESS

— Senate GOP moves forward on budget resolution vote. Senate Republicans are set to vote this week on a budget resolution advancing key elements of former President Trump’s agenda, including bolstering border operations, increasing defense spending, and expanding energy initiatives. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) announced the move, pressuring the House to act. The resolution would allocate roughly $325 billion, setting the stage for Trump’s deportation plans and military funding. The process will involve 50 hours of debate followed by a lengthy amendment voting session, where Democrats are expected to force politically sensitive votes.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are pushing a separate budget resolution that includes a sweeping $4.5 trillion tax cut package. The two chambers have been at odds over the best approach, with Senate GOP leaders prioritizing a two-bill strategy to fast-track border security funds.

KEY DATES IN FEBRUARY

LINKS