News/Markets/Policy Updates: Nov. 25, 2024
— U.S. feeder cattle market pops. On Nov. 22, Mexico’s Chief Veterinary Officer informed USDA of a positive detection of New World screwworm in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint close to the border with Guatemala. These fly larvae infest warm-blooded animals, including humans, causing severe infections. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has heightened import restrictions on animal products from Mexico and intensified efforts in Central America to contain the pest’s spread. APHIS is collaborating with regional partners, releasing sterile flies and maintaining vigilance along the southern U.S. border. This will primarily impact feeder cattle imports from Mexico. Mexico ships around 100,000 head a month to the U.S. The trade is seasonable, and we are on the backside of the Fall season. The restrictions are estimated to be in force for at least a month, sources note. Link to announcement that we highlighted in a weekend special report (link). — Trump taps Brooke Rollins for USDA Secretary in Texan-filled Cabinet picks. We covered Rollins’ selection and background in weekend special reports. President-elect Donald Trump announced Saturday that Rollins, president of the America First Policy Institute and a longtime ally, is his nominee USDA Secretary. Rollins, a Texan from Glen Rose, has deep roots in conservative policy circles, including leading the Texas Public Policy Foundation and advising Trump during his 2016 campaign. USDA oversees a $213 billion budget and 106,000 employees, with significant influence over food supply and SNAP benefits. Rollins is the second Texan tapped for Trump’s Cabinet in two days, following Scott Turner for HUD Secretary. Other notable Texas-connected nominees include John Ratcliffe for CIA Director, Tulsi Gabbard for DNI, and Elon Musk for a new efficiency role. Senate confirmations are pending. — Trump transition targets expansive energy reforms: Reuters. Donald Trump’s transition team is crafting an ambitious energy agenda to be launched shortly after his inauguration, according to Reuters (link). The plan includes: Key priorities involve lifting President Biden’s freeze on LNG export permits, streamlining drilling approvals, and revamping coastal drilling leases to offer more sales. — Bessent brings stability to Trump’s economic team. Markets are optimistic about Scott Bessent’s appointment as Treasury Secretary, viewing his Wall Street experience as a stabilizing force amid Trump’s unpredictable economic agenda. Bessent is expected to temper Trump’s campaign rhetoric, advocating for measured trade policies, deficit reduction, and economic growth through deregulation and energy strategies. His approach has already reassured investors, with Treasury yields falling and the dollar weakening. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, (link) Bessent said his priority will to enact Trump’s tax cuts, while also introducing tariffs and cutting spending. “Maintaining the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency” will also be a focus. While markets see him as a fiscal hawk focused on maintaining the dollar’s reserve currency status, Bessent faces challenges aligning Trump’s unconventional views with market expectations. His ability to balance these dynamics will be crucial in sustaining confidence. (More below on Bessent.) — Leadership shake-up looms on House Ag Committee ranking position. House Ag Committee Democrats are signaling openness to new leadership as Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) mounts a challenge against current ranking member Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), whose ability to lead a new farm bill has been questioned, and concerns mount about his health. Meanwhile, reports surfaced last week that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) is also weighing a bid, alongside potential contenders like Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). Costa’s move may pave the way for change, as lawmakers navigate the sensitive task of replacing Scott, the first Black congressional agriculture chair. — President-elect Trump may use executive orders to modify SNAP program, making it easier to ink a new farm bill next year. President Trump has previously utilized executive orders to influence federal assistance programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). His administration emphasized state flexibility, which could allow states to implement specific measures without needing congressional approval. Trump’s approach to SNAP and other welfare programs has been characterized by a push for stricter work requirements and greater state control. In 2018, he signed an executive order titled Reducing Poverty in America by Promoting Opportunity and Economic Mobility, which directed federal agencies to review and propose stronger work requirements for beneficiaries of means-tested assistance programs, including SNAP. This order mandated that all cabinet departments develop plans to impose work requirements on able-bodied recipients of federal aid, thereby increasing the administrative burden on states to comply with these new regulations. An executive order could allow states to have more discretion in how they administer welfare programs. This flexibility could enable states to create pilot programs or modify existing SNAP rules without waiting for congressional legislation. For instance, states could decide whether to implement stricter work requirements or other measures aimed at reducing dependency on federal assistance. This aligns with Trump’s broader goal of promoting self-sufficiency among welfare recipients. Under Trump’s first administration, USDA proposed changes that would tighten eligibility criteria for SNAP, including limiting waivers that allowed states to exempt certain populations from work requirements. These changes were intended to encourage employment among able-bodied adults without dependents. The potential impact of such executive orders is significant: Bottom line: Trump’s ability to bypass Congress through executive orders provides him with a powerful tool to reshape SNAP and other welfare programs. By emphasizing state flexibility, he could effectively allow states to experiment with different approaches to welfare administration, potentially leading to significant changes in how assistance is provided at the local level. government aid and promoting personal responsibility among beneficiaries. — Pro-Russia TikTok candidate shocks Romania’s election. Calin Georgescu, a pro-Russia candidate with no party affiliation, has won the first round of Romania’s presidential election, surprising political analysts. His campaign, centered largely on TikTok, defeated the pro-West prime minister, the pre-election favorite, who now faces likely exclusion from the runoff, according to the BBC. Though the presidency in Romania is mostly symbolic, Georgescu’s anti-NATO stance and promise to cut support for Ukraine could significantly influence European foreign policy. Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine, and his victory highlights growing divisions in European unity over backing Kyiv amid the war. Details: Georgescu has 23% of the vote. Elena Lasconi, a center-right candidate, is second, on 19%, narrowly ahead of Marcel Ciolacu, the center-left prime minister. The top two candidates will compete in a second round on December 8. — Trump’s ethics delay sparks bipartisan concerns. President-elect Donald Trump’s delay in signing ethics and transparency agreements is reportedly hindering his transition efforts, according to Politico. Without these agreements, Trump and his nominees are unable to access federal agencies, raising bipartisan alarm over potential national security risks. Analysts highlighted parallels to the 9/11 Commission’s findings that the 2000 election dispute impaired George W. Bush’s transition. Additionally, The New York Times noted that Trump’s inaction allows him to raise unlimited funds from undisclosed donors. Of note: Trump’s incoming national security adviser said Sunday that the president-elect’s transition team is working closely with President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration on the war in Ukraine and other major national security issues. Trump has vowed to end the war quickly, but there are fears in Ukraine that he’ll let Russia keep vast swathes of territory seized during its illegal invasion. Meanwhile, Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, told Fox News that the president-elect’s transition team were working “hand in glove” with the Biden administration to ensure a smooth handover. — Florida will hold a special election on April 1 to fill Matt Gaetz’s former congressional seat. Gaetz resigned from Congress while he was briefly under consideration for attorney general. He says that he will not run again. There will be a Republican primary for the seat on January 28; the winner will be a heavy favorite in April. — Saudi Arabia’s “Saudi First” foreign policy shapes regional role. Saudi Arabia is increasingly pursuing an independent foreign policy that diverges from Washington’s traditional influence, analysts observe. Initiatives like dialogue with Iran, rapprochement with Qatar, and leveraging economic power signal a “Saudi first” approach, as noted in Bloomberg (link). Simultaneously, Riyadh’s engagement with Iran and Israel positions it as a potential mediator in reducing Middle East tensions, according to experts at Foreign Affairs (link). However, as highlighted by the Council on Foreign Relations president, Saudi leaders remain focused on domestic priorities, aiming to shield economic development from regional instability. — A new definition of paltry… Criticism over climate finance at COP29. At COP29, wealthier nations pledged at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to support developing countries in combating climate change. However, the agreement drew criticism, with India’s delegation dismissing the amount as a “paltry sum.” Prolonged negotiations extended the conference by over a day, following the rejection of a prior $250 billion offer. — NYT: Trump’s trade agenda may revive tariff lobbying frenzy and political favoritism. A New York Times article (link) discusses the potential impact of Donald Trump’s trade agenda. The piece highlights how Trump’s previous tariff policies led to a complex system of exemptions that some argue benefited his supporters and punished opponents. Key points from the article include: The article notes efforts to offset losses from its trade wars, particularly with China, involved billions in aid to U.S. farmers starting in 2019. However, these payments were distributed unevenly, it adds. A government watchdog highlighted disparities, noting that farms in the South were favored over other regions, with cotton farmers receiving higher payments compared to those growing other crops. Large farms benefited disproportionately compared to smaller ones. Additionally, a separate study revealed that wheat farmers received significant payments, even though their exports to China were relatively minimal. This uneven distribution raised concerns about fairness and the program’s effectiveness in addressing trade-related damages. Of note: Some European Union member states want the bloc to engage more urgently with Trump’s transition team as they hope to stave off disruption and worsening tensions with its largest trading partner. History lesson. Despite prior tariffs, U.S. demand for foreign goods remains strong. Many imports have been rerouted, with Mexico emerging as a key supplier. This shift began in 2018 after former President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. Now, as he prepares for a potential return to the White House in January, Trump has pledged to introduce another round of tariffs. Link to more via WSJ. |
| MARKET FOCUS |
— Equities today: Stocks rallied around the world after Donald Trump picked veteran hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary. Bond yields dropped, the dollar weakened, and gold fell. In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -0.1%. India +1.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.4%.
U.S. equities Friday and the week: All three major indices scored gains Friday and for the week, with the Dow gaining 1.96%, the Nasdaq rose 1.73%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.66%. On Friday, The Dow gained 426.16 points, 0.97%, at 44,296.51. The Nasdaq was up 31.23 points, 0.16%, at 19,003.65. The S&P 500 rose 20.63 points, 0.35%, at 5,969.34.
A year-end rally will start this week and push the S&P 500 to 6,200 points, according to Goldman Sachs trader Scott Rubner.
— Oil prices rose about 1% on Friday, reaching a two-week high, driven by heightened geopolitical risks from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent crude closed at $75.17 per barrel, up 1.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended at $71.24, up 1.6%. Both benchmarks saw weekly gains of around 6%, achieving their highest levels since November 7. The increase reflects the market’s response to growing tensions impacting the global risk premium.
— Ag markets today: Corn and wheat faced followthrough selling overnight, while the soybean market extended last Friday’s corrective gains. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 3 cents higher, winter wheat markets were 7 to 8 cents lower and spring wheat was 4 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was nearly 500 points lower and front-month crude oil futures were trading just below unchanged.
The official average price of last week’s cash cattle trade won’t be known until later this morning, but cattle traded generally steady to $1 higher last week, snapping a three-week price skid. It’s uncertain how active this week’s cash trade will be given the Thanksgiving holiday. Packers will likely be reluctant to increase cash bids again given negative margins, while feedlots are unlikely to be willing sellers at lower prices.
The CME lean hog index is down another 43 cents to $87.01 as of Nov. 21, $3.60 below the Nov. 6 peak. The pork cutout fell $1.30 on Friday to $91.77, the lowest level since March 7.
— Agriculture markets Friday and the week:
• Corn: March corn futures fell a penny today to $4.35 1/4, steady with a week-ago.
• Soy complex: January soybeans rose 5 3/4 cents to $9.83 1/2, but lost 15 cents on the week. January meal rose $2.10 to $291.50 and gained 70 points on the week. January soyoil closed 44 points lower at 41.84 cents and lost a notable 365 points on the week.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat futures fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.64 3/4 and nearer the daily low. For the week, March SRW rose 10 3/4 cents. March HRW wheat lost 1 3/4 cents to $5.65 1/2, near mid-range and on the week up 13 1/4 cents. March spring wheat futures closed down 3/4 cent at $6.01 1/2 and gave up 3/4 cent on the week.
• Cotton: March cotton rose 34 points to 70.77 cents and notched a 186-point weekly gain.
• Cattle: December live cattle futures rose $1.175 to $186.775, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high. For the week, December cattle rose $3.825. January feeder cattle gained 85 cents to $254.30, near mid-range and hit a four-month high. On the week, January feeders were up $7.075.
• Hogs: Futures ended the week strongly, with nearby December futures climbing 87.5 cents to close at $81.675. That represents a weekly rise of $2.175.
— Of note:
• “The geopolitical environment has become less favorable, with growing threats to free trade from all corners of the world.” — Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank.
• Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil since March in violation of UN sanctions, according to a research group.
• Key economic/financial events to watch in the U.S. this week: Inflation and earnings take center stage.
Tuesday:
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its November meeting, offering potential insights into the central bank’s next steps on interest rates. Earnings reports from Dell Technologies, CrowdStrike, and Best Buy will also be closely followed.
Wednesday:
The October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due. With recent progress on inflation stalling, this report could influence the likelihood of a December rate cut.
Friday:
Black Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, will spotlight retailers’ discount strategies as lower-income consumers reduce spending, a critical indicator for Wall Street.
— Debt management: Bessent’s pivotal role in U.S. fiscal policy. Scott Bessent’s appointment as Treasury Secretary positions him to influence U.S. economic policy significantly, particularly debt issuance strategies. While his endorsement of tariffs and fiscal responsibility aligns with some Republican priorities, his criticism of Janet Yellen’s short-term debt strategy underscores a potential shift toward longer-term issuance. This could impact long-term interest rates, with implications for mortgages and broader economic stability. All eyes will be on Bessent as he navigates the delicate balance of “terming out” debt — his first major test arrives with the Treasury’s Feb. 5 issuance update.
Of note: Bessent pitched Trump on a “3-3-3” policy approach that appears to have earned him points. It involves:
• cutting the budget deficit to 3% by 2028, from roughly 6% today;
• boosting GDP growth to 3%;
• and encouraging Big Oil to produce an additional 3 million barrels of crude (or energy equivalents) per day.
— U.S. national debt surpasses $36 trillion, sparking calls for action. The U.S. closed 2024 with a historic milestone as the national debt exceeded $36 trillion. This marks a rapid succession of fiscal milestones, with debt levels hitting $35 trillion in July and $34 trillion earlier this year, according to the Treasury Department. The fiscal crisis is shifting political focus toward addressing unsustainable spending.
Enter DOGE: President-elect Trump has formed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, to tackle the deficit through cuts to unauthorized federal expenditures, waste, and inefficiencies. Their WSJ op-ed highlighted targets like the Pentagon’s failed audits and billions spent on contentious programs.
Challenges ahead: Trump’s own fiscal record, legal battles, and Congress’ divided priorities complicate reforms. Upcoming fiscal debates include the reinstatement of the debt ceiling, expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and key appointments such as Russell Vought at OMB and Scott Bessent at Treasury.
— Record-breaking Thanksgiving travel predicted amid potential delays. This Thanksgiving travel season is set to break records, with over 31 million air passengers expected (around 80 million total travelers), according to AAA. The busiest travel days will be Wednesday, Nov. 27, and Sunday, Dec. 1, each seeing more than 3 million passengers. The FAA warns of potential slowdowns due to air traffic controller shortages, particularly in the Northeast, and weather challenges. Two storms could disrupt plans: one in the Upper Midwest bringing showers to several states and another moving from the central U.S. to the East by Thanksgiving, possibly affecting the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.
Market perspectives:
— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is currently holding above 106.5, showing strength amid expectations of Trump’s policies potentially fueling inflation. This could limit the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate cuts. The dollar has strengthened across the board, with significant declines seen in the euro, kiwi, and yen. The DXY (Dollar Index) decreased slightly by 0.09%. Treasury yields are rising ahead of economic data releases. 10-year note yield: Increasing 2 basis points to 4.03%; 30-year bond yield: Rising 2 basis points to 4.32%; 2-year note yield: Up 1 basis point to 3.95%.The bond market is anticipating key economic data, including retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell below $75 per barrel in a likely technical correction, after surging almost 6% last week amid escalation in the Russia/Ukraine war. Last week, oil prices posted their largest weekly gain in nearly two months after Ukraine made its first attack on Russia using U.S. and British weapons and Russia retaliated by firing a hypersonic ballistic missile, raising fears of supply interruptions. In addition, Iran said it will expand its nuclear fuel-making capacity after it was censured by the UN atomic watchdog, as the OPEC member braces for possible sanctions under a second Trump administration. Investors also closely monitor rising oil demand in China and India, two of the world’s largest oil importers. Meanwhile, reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased concerns over disruptions to oil production in the Middle East. Gold and silver prices have recently retreated from record highs: Gold: Currently trading at $2,632.77 per troy ounce, up 0.83%. Silver: Trading at $31.26 per troy ounce, up 0.32%. The precious metals market saw a decline earlier, with gold falling
— Rapidly depleting gas reserves and looming supply cuts from Moscow have the makings of a fresh energy crisis for Europe. Link to more via Bloomberg.
— Negative Cattle on Feed report. USDA estimated there were 11.986 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Nov. 1, up 30,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago. Analysts on average expected a 0.1% decline in feedlot inventories. October placements increased 5.3% and marketings rose 4.7% from year-ago levels. All of the categories came in on the negative side of the average pre-report estimates, which could weigh on cattle futures. But we doubt there will be sustained market impacts.
— Cold Storage report out this afternoon. USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of October. The five-year average is a 15.5-million-lb. increase in beef stocks and a 16.8-million-lb. decline in pork stocks during the month.
— USDA daily export sale:
• 454,090 MT corn to Mexico. Of the total, 364,792 MT is for delivery during the 2024-2025 marketing year and 89,298 MT for delivery during the 2025-2026 marketing year.
— Ag trade update: Algeria tendered to buy a nominal 50,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat.
— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Upper Great Lakes and Central Rockies... ...Below average temperatures in the Northern Plains; above average temps in the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley today.
Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:
• Beans firmer, corn and wheat lower to start the week
• Cash cattle snap price skid
• Seasonal pressure mounts in hog fundamentals
• Most of Brazil, Argentina to receive rains
• China keeps MLF rate unchanged for second month
| CONGRESS |
— Trump knows that Congress is slow at most everything, which is why he is focused on big issues in coming budget reconciliation measure. Farm-state lawmakers have taken two years to write a new farm bill, and they will go into another year because of their inability to reach consensus. When was the last time always-tardy congressional appropriators did their job on time? President-elect Trump wants no part of “regular disorder” in Congress. That is why he wants a big bang budget reconciliation measure to include a host of must-have issues during the first 100 days of his second administration.
Key challenge: Republicans aim to consolidate tax cuts, spending reductions, energy policy, border security, and campaign promises into a single tax bill. The initiative leverages a “strike first” strategy to capitalize on their unified control of government.
Procedural tightrope: The bill must adhere to Senate reconciliation rules, bypassing filibusters but requiring near-perfect GOP unity.
Intraparty divisions: Disputes over budget deficits, clean-energy subsidies, and state tax deduction caps risk stalling progress.
House majority tensions: A razor-thin margin in the House grants every Republican significant leverage over the bill’s content.
Tax increases loom for 62% of households in 2026 if Congress fails to extend 2017 tax cuts.
President-elect Trump’s $3 trillion campaign promises, including cuts on Social Security taxes and incentives for caregivers, clash with limited budgetary wiggle room.
Outlook: To succeed, Republicans must craft compromises while meeting fiscal constraints, potentially phasing in measures or using temporary cuts to balance costs. Failure risks both economic repercussions and political fallout.
| ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT |
— Israel/Hezbollah conflict intensifies amid stalled ceasefire talks. Israel and Hezbollah escalated hostilities as U.S.-brokered ceasefire negotiations faltered. Israeli airstrikes targeted Beirut’s suburbs, while Hezbollah launched its heaviest rocket barrage in months. Though Israeli media suggested Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government had agreed “in principle” to a truce, the U.S. warned that delays could push mediation efforts to President-elect Trump’s administration. However, Israel retains reservations about certain elements of the agreement, which will be conveyed to the Lebanese government. Negotiations are ongoing, and the agreement remains tentative until all issues are resolved. Final approval will require a vote by the Israeli cabinet, which has not yet taken place. The EU’s foreign policy chief cautioned that Lebanon is “on the brink of collapse,” highlighting the war’s devastating impact on the country.
| POLICY UPDATE |
— Lawmakers are exploring a “farm bill extension-plus” approach, combining an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill with enhanced safety net provisions to address economic hardships and prepare for future needs. Others dub it a stealth farm bill. Texas A&M economists Drs. Bart Fischer and Joe Outlaw previously endorsed the concept to support farmers in uncertain times (link for details).
| CHINA UPDATE |
— China steps up security amid concerns over social instability. Chinese authorities are addressing growing fears of social unrest linked to the country’s slowing economic growth, following a series of violent attacks. The deadliest incident occurred two weeks ago when a man drove into a crowd near a stadium, killing 35 people. Mass stabbings have also been reported. According to Bill Bishop’s Sinocism newsletter, a Politburo member recently led talks focused on maintaining social stability, while the justice ministry held its own discussions. Reuters reported (link) that local governments have intensified police patrols and public security measures in response.
| TRADE POLICY |
— U.S. objects to EU retaliation request in WTO olive case. The United States has challenged the European Union’s request to impose $35 million in retaliatory measures over a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling. The WTO previously found that U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties violated compliance standards. The U.S. objection has referred the matter to a WTO arbitrator, who will determine the appropriate level of retaliation.
— Mexico bets big on trade with port expansion. Mexico is making a strategic push to boost its role in global trade with a significant expansion of the Port of Manzanillo, Bloomberg reports (link). Aiming to more than double its capacity, the Pacific coast port seeks to rank among the world’s top 20 container ports. The move reflects Mexico’s confidence in global trade growth, even amid U.S. tariff threats and concerns over trade ties with China.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has defended the strategy, emphasizing plans to reduce reliance on Chinese imports by promoting local manufacturing. Meanwhile, automaker Stellantis signaled readiness to adjust investments in Mexico should Trump impose new industry tariffs.
This development is part of a broader geopolitical narrative as countries brace for potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under Trump. Other global reactions include China strengthening ties in North Africa, Ireland prepping for economic shocks, and concerns in Iran, the EU, and beyond over renewed U.S. protectionism.
| LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— Egg prices spike amid Avian flu and holiday demand. Egg prices have surged by 30% compared to last October, driven by holiday cooking demands and a resurgence of Avian flu. “Your baking, cooking, and entertaining all require extra eggs,” said Emily Metz, CEO of the American Egg Board. Since January 2022, avian flu has plagued farmers, with recent outbreaks in key states like Oregon, Utah, and Washington causing a projected loss of 60 million eggs, according to USDA.
— USDA extends comment period on cattle market regulation proposal. USDA has extended the comment period for its advance notice of proposed rulemaking (link) on fed cattle market regulations. Public feedback on regulatory options to address price discovery and fairness concerns is now due by Jan. 10, 2025, a 30-day extension from the original deadline. USDA stated that input will shape their approach and potential future regulatory changes.
| HEALTH UPDATE |
— Bird flu found in raw milk sparks health concerns in California. The H5N1 bird flu virus was detected in a batch of unpasteurized milk sold by Raw Farm in California, prompting a product recall and warnings from health authorities. The milk, marked with a “best by” date of Nov. 27, 2024, has been pulled from store shelves. Health experts have long cautioned against consuming raw milk due to risks of foodborne illnesses, including salmonella and listeria. The recent case follows the first U.S. child bird flu diagnosis and growing concerns as the virus increasingly infects mammals and humans. While pasteurization kills H5N1, rising demand for raw milk, promoted by influencers and wellness advocates, has driven its availability. Authorities advise avoiding contact with raw milk from the affected batch to reduce infection risks.
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |