USDA Did Not Announce a Major Change that Would Have Significantly Boosted Egg Supply

— USDA Outlook Forum forecast highlights for U.S. crops (2025-26), livestock released this morning at USDA’s Outlook Forum, with individual sessions Friday that will offer additional insight and analysis into the forecasts.

· Corn: Planted area of 94 million acres with harvested area of 86.1 million with a national average yield of 181 bushels per acre brings a crop of 15.585 billion bushels. Feed and residual use ticks up to 5.9 billion bushels with corn used for ethanol steady at 5.5 billion bushels. Exports are pegged at 2.4 billion bushels for corn carryover that would rise to 1.965 billion bushels with the season average farm price at $4.20. The area expansion comes on “favorable prices relative to competing crops.”
· Soybeans: Planted acres will ease to 84 million acres with harvested area at 83.2 million with a national average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre would bring a crop of 4.770 billion bushels. Crush would expand to 2.475 billion with exports rising to 1.865 billion, putting carryover at 320 million and the season average farm price of $10. Soybean area is to fall due to “lower prices for soybeans driven in part by large supplies in South America.”
· Wheat: All wheat planted acres would be at 47 million acres with harvested at 38.4 million with a national average yield of 50.1 bushels per acre that would bring a crop of 1.926 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is seen at 120 million with food and seed use at 1.034 billion bushels and steady exports at 850 million bushels with carryover rising to 826 million and the season average farm price at $5.50. Wheat area is to rise “mostly reflecting increased winter wheat plantings.”
· Rice: Planted area is seen at 2.6 million acres with harvested at 2.5 million, with a yield of 7,751 pounds per acre producing a crop of 197.5 million hundredweight (cwt). Domestic and resident use is pegged at 153 million cwt. With 98.0 million cwt of exports for a carryover of 41.6 million cwt, and a season average farm price of $14.80 per cwt. Rice area would be the lowest in three years.
· Cotton: Planted acres are seen at 10 million acres with harvested area at 8.41 million and a 15.9% abandonment rate with a yield of 833 pounds per acre producing a crop of 14.6 million bales. Exports would rise to 13.0 million bales with domestic use of 1.7 million bales for carryover at 4.8 million bales and a season average farm price of 65 cents per pound. Cotton prices early this year signal the fiber is “less competitive this year compared with alternative crops.”
· Cattle/Beef: Beef production for 2025 is seen at 26.6 billion pounds, down nearly 2%, as “tighter domestic feeder supplies are expected to constrain feedlot placements.” Beef exports are seen down 7% while imports are expected to hit 5.77 billion pounds, a 3% rise. The 5-area steer price is forecast to average $291 per cwt.
· Hogs/Pork: Commercial production is forecast at 28.5 billion pounds, up 3% from 2024, with pork exports seen at 7.30 billion pounds, up 3% as “increased domestic production and continued strong international demand for pork is expected to support US exports.” Pork imports are seen at 1.17 billion pounds, up 2%. National base 51%-52% lean hog prices, live equivalent, are seen at $65 per cwt., a 3% rise from 2024. “Despite increased availability of hogs, prices will be supported by strong demand, both domestically and internationally, and higher beef prices.”
· Broilers: Broiler production is seen at 47.1 billion pounds, up 1%, “on lower feed costs, higher prices for competing meats, and steadily increasing average live bird weights.” However, the rate of growth could be constrained by the smaller layer flock. Broiler meat exports are seen at 6.61 billion pounds, down 2%. National wholesale broiler price is seen at $1.32 per pound.
· Eggs: U.S. egg production in 2025 is expected to be 8.96 billion dozen, nearly a 1% decline from 2024. This outlook is based on the assumption of no additional animal disease outbreaks from what was reported at the time of the February WASDE. New York wholesale egg prices are forecast to average $4.44 per dozen, up $1.41 from last year.
· Dairy: Milk cow numbers are expected higher in 2025 versus 2024, with 0.3% growth in milk per cow production, output is seen at 226.9 billion pounds, up 0.5%. The incidence of HPAI in dairy cattle in California has declined at the start of 2025.

— Democrats face tough choice on funding deal. Republican leaders refuse to block President Trump and Elon Musk from reclaiming previously approved funds, a key Democratic demand in spending negotiations. With a March 14 deadline looming, Democrats must choose between conceding or risking a government shutdown. While Democrats insist they don’t want a shutdown, they argue Republicans bear responsibility for funding the government. The GOP needs bipartisan support to pass a spending plan, but House conservatives oppose temporary stopgap bills. If a shutdown drags on, public perception will be crucial.

“It looks as though it’s becoming inevitable at this point,” Johnson said of a long-term CR following a White House meeting with Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on Wednesday. Johnson suggested Democrats’ demands “may be unconstitutional… “We have never dictated to the executive, so far as I know in the history of the United States, whom they can hire and how many people they can hire,” Johnson added. But Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, pushed back hard at Johnson. “I don’t know who the speaker talks to. He may be talking to himself in his office,” DeLauro said of a long-term CR. “Nowhere has that come up anyplace. The speaker ought to really check with the chairman of the committee.” When asked whether the bipartisan, bicameral funding talks are yielding any progress, DeLauro insisted they were. “We are getting closer. That’s what you need to know,” DeLauro said.

— Trade tariff timeline for Canada & Mexico murky. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in an interview with Fox News said the U.S. will impose baseline reciprocal tariffs beginning on April 2. Earlier, President Trump said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would begin on April 2. But a White House official said later Wednesday the deadline for those tariffs remains March 4, and Trump had not yet decided whether to grant another extension. Lutnick said the “fentanyl-related” tariffs would be re-evaluated March 4, noting that Canada and Mexico still had to “prove to the president” that they had made progress on tighter border controls.

— EU to Trump: Don’t start a trade war. “The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States,” President Donald Trump claimed last night, adding, “They have done a good job of it, but now I am president.” He announced a 25% tariff on EU imports, escalating transatlantic tensions.

Brussels is not backing down. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill warned, “We’re ready to partner if you play by the rules. But we will also protect our consumers and businesses at every turn.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola’s office echoed this, cautioning that “tariffs and trade wars produce only losers.” With EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen vowing retaliation, a major economic clash may be brewing.

— Trump said he plans to revoke Chevron’s oil license to operate in Venezuela, a move that would threaten to torpedo that nation’s slow economic recovery. He cited the electoral conditions in Venezuela and its failure to take back migrants from the U.S. as quickly as it promised. The company said it was aware of Trump’s post and it was looking at the implications. Chevron exported around 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Venezuela, more than 25% of the country’s oil output. If the Venezuela state oil company PDVSA opts to export the supplies, sanctions would still prevent U.S. refiners from buying the crude.

— U.S. proposal could have big impacts on shipping costs. A U.S. proposal to impose multimillion-dollar fees on Chinese-operated, Chinese-built, and Chinese-flagged ships could raise shipping costs for American retailers and manufacturers. While aimed at countering China’s dominance in global shipbuilding, experts say the measure is unlikely to boost U.S. shipbuilding. Instead, logistics specialists warn that carriers may shift fleets to minimize exposure, but with nearly 70% of new ship orders coming from Chinese yards, penalties could still drive up costs. Analysts estimate the fees could add $150 to $300 per container shipped from China to the U.S. West Coast.

— Trump administration orders federal layoff plans within two weeks. The Trump administration has directed federal agencies to submit large-scale reduction-in-force (RIF) plans by March 13, targeting the “maximum elimination” of non-statutory positions. Agencies must identify workforce cuts, consolidation strategies, and efficiency measures, with an estimated 700,000 employees at risk. Some agencies, including OPM and the EPA, have already begun issuing layoff notices. Additional plans detailing agency restructuring and further reductions are due by April 14.

The plans will focus on the “maximum elimination” of functions not required by law, Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought and Office of Personnel Management acting Director Charles Ezell said in new guidance on Wednesday, and include a resulting “significant reduction” in employees. As a starting point for the cuts, Vought and Ezell said, agencies should focus on employees whose jobs are not required in statute and who face furloughs in government shutdowns — typically around one-third of the federal workforce, or 700,000 employees.

OPM tasked agencies with eliminating duplicative program areas, consolidating management layers, reducing non-critical components and developing technological solutions to automate functions. They must also develop plans to eliminate regional offices not necessary for service delivery and to slash consultants and contractors.

The memo didn’t provide any specific targets for job cuts, but said the “starting point” for the plans should be workers deemed non-essential during a government shutdown. About four in 10 federal employees have been historically furloughed when Congress fails to appropriate money for continued operations, with the remainder expected to work without pay until lawmakers approve new funding.

Big staff cuts for EPA. President Trump said during the first Cabinet meeting of his second term that Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin plans to cut the majority of the agency’s staff. “I spoke with Lee Zeldin, and he thinks he’s going to be cutting 65 or so percent of the people from environmental (that would equate to 11,000 staffers). And we’re going to speed up the process, too at the same time,” Trump said. The EPA comprises just over 17,200 workers and 1,540 temporary workers, according to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

The Trump administration will also slash agency rolls through attrition, as it currently has a hiring freeze in place and will replace that in the coming months with a mandate that only one employee is hired for every four who leave.

Of note: Vought and Ezell stressed that any agencies that provide direct services to Americans should not start laying off workers until receiving a direct sign off from OPM and the Office of Management and Budget. Any positions related to border security, immigration enforcement, law enforcement, national security and public safety are exempt from the cuts.

— The Senate is in session and voting on repealing a Biden-era energy regulation under the CRA at noon ET and to advance Linda McMahon’s nomination as Education secretary at 1:45 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, GOP senators questioned White House chief of staff Susie Wiles about DOGE in a closed-door lunch Wednesday.

— Greer confirmed as USTR with strong GOP support. The Senate confirmed Jamieson Greer as the new United States Trade Representative (USTR) on Wednesday, with a 56-43 vote. A former chief of staff to USTR Robert Lighthizer, Greer is expected to back former President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The confirmation saw support from 51 Republicans and 5 Democrats, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to oppose. Greer, a lawyer and Air Force JAG veteran, previously served in Iraq. He helped write the U.S./China Phase 1 agreement and also was involved in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

— USDA unveils $1 billion bird flu plan to stabilize egg prices. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins as expected announced a $1 billion initiative to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and reduce egg prices (link for details; link to Rollins’ op ed in the WSJ). The plan, partially funded through spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and reportedly funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation, includes $500 million for Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments at egg-laying facilities, $400 million for producer indemnification and farm repopulation efforts, and $100 million for vaccines and other solutions. USDA will deploy epidemiologists, expand biosecurity audits, and collaborate with the FDA on supply chain improvements. While vaccination remains under review, trade impact considerations will guide any implementation.

USDA confirmed the reports of Turkey sending eggs into the U.S. USDA Chief of Staff Kailee Tkacz Buller told reporters, “We already have a couple countries who are interested. Turkey is a country that we already work with right now to import some eggs.”

Of note: The downside of the new plan is if it does not work, bird flu numbers could dramatically expand, pushing the topic into still major focus and boosting egg prices further.

Rollins also urged the rollback of California’s “overly restrictive” Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act, the 2018 ballot measure (Proposition 12) that established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens, breeding pigs and calves. The law bans California businesses from selling eggs from chickens that don’t meet the requirements — thus forcing both California farmers and out-of-state suppliers to conform to the law. Although in 2021 the law was challenged by the North American Meat Institute — which argued that it violated the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution — the lawsuit was rejected by U.S. Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, McDonald’s won’t charge extra for eggs, yet. The restaurant chain said it won’t add surcharges on eggs, even as others do and prices hit record highs.

Bottom line: USDA’s announcement was clearly careful regarding the use of vaccines, largely because of ongoing trade issues. USDA stressed that any vaccination action would see USDA work with trading partners to limit trade impacts.

There was no mention of the National Chicken Council (NCC) petitioning FDA to lift a regulation preventing broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply, arguing the move could ease record-high egg prices caused by the bird flu outbreak. The 2009 rule forces broiler producers to discard surplus hatching eggs instead of selling them to processors, despite gov’t risk assessments affirming their safety. If granted, the request would allow nearly 400 mil. eggs annually to be used in processed foods like bread, pasta, and mayonnaise, alleviating strain on table egg supplies. NCC previously sought relief under the Biden admin. in 2023 but was denied. Now with egg prices soaring, the organization is urging swift action from the Trump administration. This would have been the most significant approach to lowering egg prices, but it was not taken due to stiff resistance from the FDA.

— Broad support for USDA’s $1 billion avian flu plan. Industry groups and lawmakers have voiced strong support for USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins’ $1 billion strategy to combat avian flu, announced on Feb. 26 (link for details). USDA reportedly plans to repurpose existing funds through the Commodity Credit Corporation to pay for Rollins’ bird flu plan, along with spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Industry reactions:
· United Egg Producers President Chad Gregory thanked President Trump and the administration for prioritizing the fight against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
· National Chicken Council President Harrison Kircher praised the science-based approach, particularly regarding vaccine use for laying hens and turkeys.
· John Zimmerman, chair of the National Turkey Federation, said the group was disappointed that Rollins’ plan excluded the needs of the turkey industry: “It seems only to cover the egg-laying industry.”
· FMI — The Food Industry Association CEO Leslie Sarasin welcomed the plan, emphasizing the need for a stable egg supply.
State and congressional support:
· Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig supported vaccine exploration and collaboration with state officials.
· Ag chairmen: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) commended the administration’s leadership.
· Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) called the plan a crucial step in supporting farmers and stabilizing egg prices.

— Senate Ag Committee examines farming challenges. The Senate Agriculture Committee held a hearing on Wed., Feb. 26, to discuss pressing issues in the agricultural economy.

Key challenges:
· Avian flu: Over 160 million birds and nearly 1,000 dairy herds affected.
· Labor shortages: The fresh produce industry struggles with a lack of reliable farm labor.
· Regulatory burdens: Concerns about overregulation impacting agriculture, especially in the fresh produce industry.
· Trade issues: Potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico could harm pork producers.

Notable testimonies:
· Bret Erickson (International Fresh Produce Association) highlighted labor shortages and rising costs.
· Lori Stevermer (National Pork Producers Council) and John Zimmerman (National Turkey Federation) spoke on industry challenges. “We must fix the problems caused by Prop. 12, which has increased farmers’ operating costs, created business uncertainty, and raised pork prices at the grocery store,” said Stevermer. “We stand with farmers and consumers across the country, grateful to have the support of both President Trump and former President Biden in clearly and decisively opposing Prop. 12.”

Policy recommendations:
· Farm bill: Support for a bipartisan farm bill.
· Labor reform: Urgent calls to fix the H-2A visa program.
· Research funding: Increased investment in crop mechanization.
· Crop Insurance: Enhanced risk management for produce growers.

— Booker demands accountability for stalled farm payments. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) called for USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to be held accountable if delayed payments to farmers from the Trump administration aren’t immediately released. Speaking at a panel on the farm economy, Booker stressed that farmers who invested in conservation practices with promised government reimbursements are now in crisis. He supported Republican Sen. Jim Justice’s (D-W.Va.) concerns that without urgent action on issues like crop insurance, family farms could disappear, harming the U.S. food system. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) also warned that funding freezes and USDA staff cuts could worsen challenges like crop diseases and financial safety nets for farmers.

— U.S./UK trade talks revived as Starmer heads to White House. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has reintroduced the United Act, a bill that would authorize comprehensive trade negotiations with the UK through March 1, 2029. The move comes as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer prepares to meet President Donald Trump at the White House. The U.S./UK trade relationship has remained in limbo since Brexit, with past negotiations failing to yield a broad agreement. While Trump has threatened tariffs on various trading partners, he has so far refrained from imposing new duties on the UK. The proposed legislation could pave the way for renewed discussions on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, particularly as British industries brace for a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum set to take effect in March.

— Brazil’s port congestion causes billion-dollar trade losses. Brazil’s container ports are facing severe congestion, leading to billions in economic losses due to shipment delays, cancellations, and inefficiencies. A Folha investigation found that in 2024, only 23% of container shipments departed on time, while thousands were delayed or canceled due to port congestion. Major ports like Santos, Rio de Janeiro, and Portonave reported widespread delays, with the coffee industry alone losing $555 million in revenue. Exporters across industries, from automotive to agriculture, face rising costs and operational disruptions. Despite record-high container throughput in 2024, Brazil’s port infrastructure is struggling to keep up. Capacity at key terminals exceeded safe limits, prompting emergency government meetings and plans for port expansion, including new terminal auctions and regulatory reforms.

Global benchmarks suggest container terminals should operate at no more than 65% capacity for efficient flow. Brazil’s busiest terminals, however, ran dangerously close to full utilization in 2024:
· Santos Brasil (SP): 76% capacity
· Brasil Terminal Portuário (SP): 73%
· Portonave (SC): 78%
· Itapoá (SC): 91%
· Paranaguá (PR): 81%
· Multi-Rio (RJ): 94%

The crisis has prompted emergency meetings between industry representatives, the National Waterway Transport Agency (Antaq), and the Ministry of Ports and Airports (MPor). While stakeholders recognize recent efforts to address bottlenecks, they are demanding faster action.

— Supreme Court halts $2 billion foreign aid deadline. Chief Justice John Roberts has temporarily paused a court order requiring the Trump administration to spend $2 billion in frozen foreign aid by midnight. The emergency appeal marks the first Supreme Court challenge to Trump’s broader efforts to reshape the federal government through deep spending cuts and increased executive authority.

— House panel considers EV fee for highway fund. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is weighing a $150 annual fee on electric vehicles to help fund the Highway Trust Fund. The measure, part of budget reconciliation efforts, could raise $20 billion to $40 billion over the next decade. The fund faces a projected $280 billion deficit by 2034, according to Politico.

— NWS outlook: Series of clipper systems to bring rain and snow showers to the Great Lakes, Appalachians, and Northeast through the early weekend... ...Above to well above-average temperatures expected to persist for most
of the country to end the work week.

(NWS Outlook)