All food prices up most since 1979
About the only thing consistent with USDA’s food price projections is that most of them have risen almost continuously throughout the year. Link to USDA report.
The latest food price forecasts released today:
- Consumer price index (CPI) for all food up 9% to 10%, vs 8.5% to 9.5% in August, still below the 11% hike in 1974.
- Food at home (grocery) prices up 10.5% to 11.5%, vs 10% to 11% last month, shy of the 14.9% rise in 1974.
- Food away from home (restaurant) prices up 6.5% to 7.5% from 2021 levels, the third consecutive month at that level, and the most since the 9% rise in 1981.
Items other than meat prices were the reasons behind USDA food price inflation hikes, as USDA trimmed its beef price projection to 5.5% to 6.5% vs the August outlook for an increase of 6% to 7%.
Products behind the USDA food price rises:
- Egg prices are now forecast up 26% to 27% compared with 2021, up from the August forecast of 24.5% to 25.5%. Bird flu continues to rally egg prices, which are still below the 29.2% rise in 2007, but 39.8% higher than August 2021.
- USDA’s forecast for fats and oils prices shows an increase of 18% to 19%, up from the August tally of a rise of 16.5% to 17.5%, but well below the biggest rise of 41.9% in 1974.
- Cereal and bakery products are forecast to rise 13% to 14% more in 2022 vs 2021, the biggest rise since 29.9% in 1974.
Reasons USDA cited for the upward adjustments: “Economy-wide factors, including ongoing supply chain issues and energy, transportation, and labor costs, have contributed to increases in prices across food categories. However, recent declines in agricultural commodity and energy prices are expected to ease price increases across these categories through the remainder of 2022.”
Forecasts for 2023 increases were unchanged, with all food to rise 2.5% to 3.5%, restaurant prices up 3% to 4%, and grocery store prices to increase 2% to 3%, all above the 20-year averages of 2.4% for all food, 2.9% for restaurant prices, and 2% for grocery prices.