Updated Fertilizer Price Impact Report to Show Much Higher Effects Than Initial Assessment

Financial officials next week to discuss food shortages and price increases brought on by war

Ukraine is taking credit for seriously damaging the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Besides providing heavier weaponry, the Biden administration is moving to significantly expand the intelligence it shares with Ukraine, the better to target Moscow’s military units in Russian-occupied Donbas and Crimea. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned countries maintaining their ties to Russia that they risk isolation from the global economy.

USDA daily export sale: 132,000 MT of soybeans to China during MY 2021-2022.

The world’s top finance officials will gather in Washington next week for the IMF’s and World Bank’s spring meetings, where a central concern will be food shortages and price increases brought on by the war.

Fertilizer price impact on farmers over double the amount of earlier assessment. Texas A&M Univ. economists will soon deliver a report to Congress that will show the surging fertilizer price impact on U.S. farmers is over double the drag estimated in a report late last year. Lawmakers may use the information to decide whether to push a program that would temper some of the price implications.

The discussion over the impacts of President Biden’s E15 announcement continues and we have both sides of the issue discussed in the Energy section.

Senate Agriculture Committee sets first farm bill hearing for April 29 in East Lansing, Michigan at Michigan State University.

Texas will halt some vehicle inspections at the U.S./Mexico border after the governor’s crackdown provoked protests that halted crucial food and equipment shipments. Meanwhile, foreign-owned factories in northern Mexico have lost more than $100 million due to a trucker blockade at a key U.S. border crossing.

Holiday travel is returning, bringing long lines and wait times with it. As pandemic travel restrictions ease, people are making up for lost time to visit relatives, travel for work or take a vacation, especially during the Easter holidays. But airlines and airports are struggling to keep up, as a labor shortage stymies recruitment and Covid infections sideline many employees.

A federal mask mandate for public transportation has been extended through May 3.

Elon Musk has made an offer to buy Twitter and take it private, saying he believes it needs to be “transformed.” Musk said the $43.4 billion cash offer was his “best and final offer,” according to the SEC filing, adding that if it’s not accepted, he would have to reconsider his position as a shareholder.

Equities today: Global stocks markets were to firmer mixed overnight. The U.S. Dow gained 169 points, or 0.5%, and then rallied further, rising 300 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was flat. Asian equities finished mostly higher on the back of gains on Wall Street Wednesday. The Nikkei rose 328.51 points, 1.22%, at 27,172.00. The Hang Seng Index gained 143.71 points, 0.67%, at 21,518.08. European equities are mostly higher even as several markets dipped into negative territory briefly early in the session. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.4% with regional markets up 0.3% to 0.4%; the FTSE is moving between slight losses and gains.

At JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank, earnings in its consumer division fell 57% from a year ago. Profits at the consumer banking units of Wells Fargo and Citigroup fell by 16 percent and 23 percent, respectively, they reported today.

Government offices are open tomorrow, but markets are closed for Good Friday.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow gained 344.23 points, 1.01%, at 34,564,59. The Nasdaq moved up 272.02 points, 2.03%, at 13,643.59. The S&P 500 rose 49.14 points, 1.12%, at 4,446.59.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: May corn futures rose 7 1/4 cents to $7.83 1/2, the highest closing price for a nearby contract since September 2012. December corn rose 4 3/4 cents to $7.35 3/4 after reaching $7.37 1/2, a contract high for the fourth consecutive day.
• Soy complex: May soybeans rose 5 3/4 cents to $16.76, while November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cent to $15.05 3/4. May soymeal fell $2.70 to $458.20, while May soyoil rose 268 points to 78.11 cents per pound.
• Wheat: July SRW wheat rose 8 3/4 cents to $11.21 1/4, the contract’s highest closing price since $11.27 1/2 on March 15. July HRW rose 11 1/4 cents to $11.78, the contract’s highest close since March 8. July spring wheat rose 3 cents to $11.59.
• Cotton: May cotton rallied 426 points to 142.77 cents per pound, the highest close for nearby futures in nearly 11 years.
• Cattle: June live cattle rose 57.5 cents to $136.875, the highest closing price since March 31. May feeder cattle rose $1.025 to $161.95.
• Hogs: April lean hogs edged up 27.5 cents to $99.90, while June futures fell 87.5 cents to $117.60.
  

Ag markets today: Corn extended gains toward $8 a bushel as the war in Ukraine threatens to all but halt the country’s ability to ship and sow crops, while cold weather is stoking worries about a slow start to U.S. planting. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were 5 cents higher, soybeans were 14 to 15 cents higher and wheat futures were unchanged to a penny lower. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around $1 lower and trading around $103. The U.S. dollar index was 250 points lower this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• European Central Bank will release its latest policy decision at 7:45 a.m. ET.
• U.S. jobless claims, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to register 172,000 new applications for unemployment benefits last week.
• Retail sales figures, also due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to notch an increase of 0.6% for March.
• USDA Weekly Export Sales report, 8:30 a.m. ET.

Yellen plans global food-crisis summit as IMF, U.N., WTO urge action. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will convene a meeting of top international financial officials next week to address a global food-security crisis, with the heads of institutions including the IMF urging action to address dire consequences of record price surges caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “With over 275 million people facing acute food insecurity, I am deeply concerned about the impact of Russia’s war on food prices and supply, particularly on poor populations,” Yellen said in a speech to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington Wednesday. Yellen said, “this will be an urgent concern for us next week to try and think about how we can stave off starvation around the world.”

Next week’s food summit will take place in Washington alongside the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Participants will include ministers representing the G7 and G20, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President David Malpass, according to Treasury spokesperson Alexandra LaManna.

U.N. and WTO release joint statement. Georgieva, Malpass, United Nations World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley and World Trade Organization Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala issued a joint statement asking the international community to support vulnerable countries through grants to cover urgent financing needs. High food prices and supply shortages are “increasing pressure on households worldwide and pushing millions more into poverty,” the leaders said, adding that their institutions stand ready to address the crisis. “The threat is highest for the poorest countries with a large share of consumption from food imports, but vulnerability is increasing rapidly in middle-income countries, which host the majority of the world’s poor.”

Producer Price Index signals faster U.S. food inflation; USDA playing catch up. The cost of foods for final demand rose in March by the most in 10 months, indicating mounting grocery store bills for Americans in the coming months even as gasoline prices cool.. The Producer Price Index report on Wednesday showed food costs climbed 2.4% from a month earlier, the largest increase since May. The jump was driven by bigger increases in prices for grains, vegetables, cooking oils and pork — suggesting the closely watched Consumer Price Index will soon reflect such advances. USDA’s food price forecasts continue to lag behind what is being reflected at both the retail and wholesale level.

From a year earlier, food prices advanced 16.2%, the largest increase in annual records back to 2010, the PPI data showed. “A number of the commodity-based food categories in the CPI tend to track their PPI counterparts with a lag of a month or two, so we are likely to see ongoing big increases for food prices at the consumer level,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC, said in a note.

Facts and figures. In the year ending in March, food prices rose 8.8% — the biggest 12-month increase since 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this week. As for the types of foods that have become notably more expensive, flour jumped 14.2%, milk rose 13.3%, eggs went up 11.2% and fruits and vegetables went up 8.5%. Bacon increased 18.2% and butter went up 6%. Prices are spiking across the board as food supplies tighten due to several factors, including droughts impacting crops and disruptions in the market caused by the war in Ukraine. A few items did become slightly cheaper last month though. Doughnuts, peanut butter and ham all declined less than 2%.

Bottom line: The Producer Price Index, which measures what suppliers are charging businesses and other customers, rose 11.2% in March from the previous year. That was the fourth consecutive month with a double-digit gain and the highest since records began in 2010. The imbalance between strong demand and constrained supply could mean higher inflation readings persist, analysts said.

Inflation watch: Airfares jump on strong demand. Airline fares were up 10.7% in March from February just in time for the busy spring and summer travel months. Airlines have been raising prices as travel demand has recovered thanks to the broad decline in new Covid-19 infections. Bookings were up 12% in March over 2019 levels. Spending on bookings, however, was up 28%, a sign inflation is having an effect on purchasing power.

Amazon will ask third-party sellers for a “fuel and inflation surcharge.” The surcharge will add 5 percent to the fee for keeping inventory with Amazon to deliver to customers. FedEx and UPS have also raised fees in response to fuel costs.

Bank of South Korea hikes rates. The Bank of Korea raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.5%. Some 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the hike, while ten forecast policy would remain unchanged. While the central bank warned the economy would grow less than previously forecast this year, the decision highlights policymakers’ more pressing sense of urgency to tackle inflation fueled by the war in Ukraine. The bank last week warned it’s likely to remain in a 4% range for the foreseeable future.

Canadian central bank hikes rate. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a half-percentage point, its biggest rate increase in more than two decades. The central bank also said it would begin bringing down its assets on its balance sheet. The bank said the economy had moved into “excess demand” which pushed up its inflation forecast. Rate increases were necessary to keep inflation expectations anchored, the bank said.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index slightly weaker ahead of U.S> economic data, with the euro and British pound both firmer against the U.S. currency. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was eased to trade around 2.67% amid a mostly higher tone in global government bond yields. Gold and silver futures are seeing slight losses ahead of economic updates, with gold around $1,982 per troy ounce and silver around $25.80 per troy ounce.

• Crude oil futures are under pressure, with U.S. crude trading around $103 per barrel and Brent around $107.50 per barrel. Futures were weaker in Asian action, with U.S. crude around $103.90 per barrel and Brent around $108.50 per barrel.

• Oil prices have been falling more quickly than gasoline prices. Oil was at $100.60 a barrel Tuesday, down about 19% from an almost 14-year peak in early March, while a gallon of regular gas averaged about $4.098 on Tuesday, only about 5.4% lower than the all-time record in March.

• Argentina trucker protests to continue with no deal reached. A strike by Argentine truckers of grains and oilseeds is set to continue after a three-hour meeting mediated by authorities failed to yield an agreement over freight rates. “We hope that in the coming days it can be resolved,” Transport Secretary Diego Giuliano said in a statement. Crop exporters say stockpiles at ports would run out next week if the strike continues, disrupting shipments.

• India to allow duty-free cotton imports through September. India will allow duty-free cotton imports until Sept. 30 in a bid to reduce domestic prices, while also removing the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC). Total import taxes were at 11%, according to Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra. He said the action could mean imports of around 2.5 million bales of cotton for 2021-22. The action was taken as India’s cotton production declined, boosting prices.

• Latest purchase by top wheat buyer Egypt laid bare the mounting costs importers are facing due to the war in Ukraine. Prices in a tender Wednesday surged 44% from mid-February, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The large volume bought, even at high prices, signals Egypt’s urgency to build reserves. Egypt bought mainly French wheat yesterday. A single cargo of Russian wheat was sold. The lack of Romania offers signals the high freight costs for the Black Sea. Many nations in the Middle East and North Africa greatly depend on Black Sea grain, leaving their food supplies particularly vulnerable from the war. Russia has continued to ship grain to Egypt since the war began, with the country ranking among its leading destinations in March. Russian wheat has traditionally dominated sales in Egyptian tenders.

• Ag trade: Taiwan bought 47,120 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan purchased 114,645 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender, including 61, 620 MT U.S., 22,640 MT Canadian and 30,385 MT Australian. South Korea purchased 69,000 MT of optional origin corn. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

• NWS weather: Major winter storm winds down over the Northern Plains today... ...Isolated severe weather and flooding possible for parts of the Northeast today... ...Chilly, sub-freezing, well below normal temperatures for northern tier states as East Coast and Deep South warm up... ...Active period continues from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest as low elevation rain and mountain snow impact the region.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Corn and soybeans higher overnight
• Commodities in supercycle early innings
• Bird flu raises egg price
• Higher cash cattle trade extends
• Cash hog index ends slide

— Summary: President Biden said the U.S. would send an additional $800 million in military and other security aid to Ukraine. The package will include “new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine,” he said. The package unveiled on Wednesday includes drones, helicopters and — for the first time — U.S. artillery. Ukraine says Russian soldiers have laced large swaths of the country with land mines and booby traps that can kill or injure civilians. Meanwhile, Russia said its Black Sea Fleet flagship was damaged and evacuated after ammunition on board blew up. Ukraine said it hit the vessel with cruise missiles. Odesa Gov. Maksyn Marchenko said that Ukrainian missiles had inflicted “serious damage” to the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet — a development that could force the Russian navy to operate farther offshore.

• Finland started a process expected to lead Russia’s Nordic neighbor into NATO in response to the attack on Ukraine, while Swedish media reported its ruling party now plans to follow such a move. Finland would offer NATO greatly enhanced intelligence capabilities, given its 800-mile border with Russia. In February, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned of “serious military-political consequences” which would “require retaliatory steps” should Sweden and Finland join NATO. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto waved off the rhetoric as more technical than menacing.
• Russia is said to be considering rolling back harsh capital controls imposed to stabilize markets, while the country also threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea region if Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said countries that maintain their ties to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine risk isolation from the global economy. The U.S. has urged countries such as China and India to take a harder stance against Moscow since the start of the war. Yellen said the U.S. and its allies may think twice about embracing more economic integration with China if Beijing doesn’t change its position on Russia.
  

— Market impacts:

• European Union has warned member states that President Vladimir Putin’s demand that “unfriendly countries” effectively pay for Russian gas in rubles would violate existing sanctions the bloc imposed on Moscow. The commission’s assessment raises the stakes for Europe’s energy security since Putin threatened to halt gas supplies to buyers that don’t comply with the edict. Most member states have said they will not pay for gas in rubles.

• Sanctions are forcing Russia to shake up its oil trade. Russian President Vladimir Putin told top officials this week that Russia will begin seeking new customers and markets for oil, as its traditional buyers have slowed purchases. Nations have been weaning off Russian energy since the war in Ukraine began. S&P Global highlighted that a “trade rupture” between Russia and Germany could trigger a financial shock to the German economy, and the U.S. urged India Tuesday not to ramp up imports from Russia.

  The head of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil company, says the firm has had to redirect fuel oil to power plants to avoid shutting refiners. The losses so far are modest, but traders and analysts expect the problems of getting crude from the ground to end users are likely to mount in the coming months as sanctions fracture a longstanding crude supply chain. Reduced production would have big implications in oil markets since Russia was, until recently, the world’s biggest exporter.

— Senate Agriculture Committee sets first farm bill hearing. The Senate Agriculture Committee will start its farm bill hearing process with a session April 29 in East Lansing, Michigan at Michigan State University. “Growing Jobs and Economic Opportunity: 2023 Farm Bill Perspectives from Michigan” is the title of the hearing, according to the panel, and will focus on “agriculture, as well as conservation, rural economic development, research, forestry, energy, and nutrition policies.”

— Biden administration mulls canceling more student debt. The Biden administration is working to expand forgiveness of student loans to students who successfully claim they were defrauded by schools. The administration has already canceled about $2 billion of those loans held by tens of thousands of former students of for-product colleges. Now officials are working through a backlog of 150,000 claims. The administration is changing the rules to make it easier for borrowers to navigate the process.

— Notable U.S. corn, soybean sales to China. USDA weekly Export Sales data for the week ended April 7 showed activity for 2021-22 that included net sales of 671,529 tonnes of corn, 136,717 tonnes of sorghum, 435,507 tonnes of soybeans, but net reductions of 24,845 running bales of upland cotton. Sales for 2022-23 included 408,000 tonnes of corn, 267,000 tonnes of soybeans, and 6,054 running bales of upland cotton. Activity for 2021 included net sales of 510 tonnes of beef and 3,976 tonnes of pork.

— China’s widespread lockdowns will bring an economic toll. The country’s zero-tolerance policy for coronavirus cases has analysts downgrading China economic growth forecasts. Nearly 400 million people are estimated to be under some form of lockdown in China as officials try to stop a fast-moving Omicron outbreak that is beginning to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. The Japanese bank Nomura has estimated that 373 million people in 45 cities are currently under some kind of lockdown, about a third of the population, accounting for the equivalent of around $7.2 trillion in annual gross domestic product. Experts say China’s “zero Covid” policy will make it nearly impossible to achieve 5.5% GDP growth this year. Link for details via the NYT.

— Chinese President Xi Jinping says his government will stick to its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic costs mount. “Prevention and control work cannot be relaxed,” Xi said during a trip to the island province of Hainan, the official Xinhua News Agency reported late Wednesday, the same day the financial hub saw a record 27,719 new cases. Officials implementing Covid Zero need to adhere to the principle of “people first and life first,” Xi said. “Persistence is victory,” he added. Residents short of groceries, medical care and patience have been making a rare display of pushback as they’ve been barred from leaving their homes.

Meanwhile, China is moving tentatively forward with a plan to test shorter quarantines — 10 days rather than 21 — for international arrivals.

— China’s central bank appears set to lower interest rates and reduce the reserve requirement ratio for its banks. The moves would be intended to free up more liquidity in the banking sector to help bolster the economy which has been hit by the particularly bad wave of Covid.

— Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will stop state police inspections of commercial trucks at one U.S.-Mexico border crossing that has been hit by massive delays. Abbott said Wednesday that he had reached an agreement with Samuel Alejandro García Sepúlveda, the governor of the state of Nuevo León, which borders Texas for 9 miles that include the Colombia Solidarity Bridge. Under the agreement, Nuevo León will perform safety inspections of trucks. Additional bridges would see relief, Abbott said, if the governors of other neighboring Mexican states — Tamaulipas, Coahuila and Chihuahua — participated in similar agreements.

The deal came a day after Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, also a Republican, called on the governor to halt the inspections due to the impact on agricultural shipments, calling it a catastrophic policy. “Up to 20,000 truckers cross the border on a normal day. My reports are that each inspection is taking an hour and has created a backlog with thousands of trucks clogging the border. Refrigerated produce is being ruined as trucks run out of fuel after being in line for over a day,” Miller commented.

— Fertilizer price impact on farmers over double the amount of earlier assessment. Texas A&M Univ. economists will soon deliver a report to Congress that will show the surging fertilizer price impact on U.S. farmers is over double the drag estimated in a report late last year. Lawmakers may use the information to decide whether to push a program that would temper some of the price implications.

The United Nations said Russia is the world’s No. 1 exporter of nitrogen fertilizer and No. 2 in phosphorus and potassium fertilizers. Its ally Belarus, also contending with Western sanctions, is another major fertilizer producer. Many developing countries — including Mongolia, Honduras, Cameroon, Senegal, Ghana, Mexico and Guatemala — rely on Russia for at least a fifth of their imports.

The Russia/Ukraine war also has driven up the already exorbitant price of natural gas, used to make nitrogen fertilizer. The result: European energy prices are so high that some fertilizer companies “have closed their businesses and stopped operating their plants,” said David Laborde, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute, according to the Associated Press.

USDA announced last month that it was issuing $250 million in grants to support U.S. fertilizer production

— Impact of summer use of E15 has minimal national impact, but positive effects for some farm states. As previously noted, the lack of E15 pumps in most gasoline stations throughout the United States will limit the impact of President Biden’s announcement of E15 for the usually restrictive summer months. However, in states like Iowa and Minnesota, which have increased E15 pumps in recent years, the announcement is being seen as positive for ethanol consumption and corn demand. Says one ethanol proponent: “Gas stations have pumps that cost money for them to install. They are not likely to want to install pumps that may not be operated all year long. They will prefer to install pumps that may be used all year. As such, the nearly 500 stations in Minnesota for example that offer E15 may revisit their decision unless E15 is made available year long. So, in Minnesota at least, the decision to make E15 was very important though a permanent fix is needed.”

Background. The Biden administration’s move would allow gasoline with 15% ethanol to be sold between June 1 and Sept. 15. Typically, the federal government limits ethanol blends to 10% during summer months, to curb smog caused by the 15% blend’s higher volatility.

Following the Biden administration’s move, E15 consumption is expected to increase by about 300 million gallons in 2022 from the 814 million gallons of E15 sold in 2021, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group that represents ethanol producers and some corn grower groups. More than 15 billion gallons of ethanol were produced in 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The White House’s move on E15 is expected to increase U.S. corn demand by 25 million to 45 million bushels, according to some initial estimates from some analysts.

Increased ethanol use could contribute to cost inflation for food companies and meat processors, because producers rely heavily on grains such as corn to feed livestock and poultry, according to the National Chicken Council (NCC). “Further and artificial demand for corn created by this administration will likely increase the cost of corn and all food products dependent on corn and corn oil inputs,” said Mike Brown, president of the group, which represents poultry companies. Feed, made of corn and soybean meal, is the top cost in raising chickens, the NCC said. “At the end of the day — ethanol manufacturers win and consumers lose,” Brown said.

— Solar, wind power costs surge amid inflation, supply chain pressures: Reuters. The cost of wind and solar power has surged almost 30% in North America and Europe over the past year amid supply chain issues and surging inflation, according to a new report cited by Reuters. In the first quarter of 2022 alone, contract prices for renewable energy rose 9.7% in North America and 8.6% in Europe, according to the report from LevelTen Energy. The report cited rising prices for shipping, labor and parts linked to the pandemic as among the factors driving the increase — with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine worsening the situation, Reuters said.

In the U.S., the uncertain fate of renewable energy tax credits and a U.S. Commerce Department investigation that could see tariffs imposed on solar panel imports from Asia are also pushing costs higher. “There’s just intractable problems right now with our supply chain,” Reagan Farr, CEO of U.S. solar developer Silicon Ranch, told the outlet in an interview.

— CEOs from major U.S. meatpackers to testify to Congress on beef prices. Chief executives of Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS and National Beef Packing will testify at a House Agriculture Committee hearing on beef prices and competition in cattle markets, the House Ag Committee announced, confirming a Pro Farmer alert report earlier this week. “It is very important, very vital, and very urgent that we hear the perspectives from the CEOs at these companies and get the full picture of why prices have gone up for consumers and down for ranchers,” House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Ga.) said in a statement announcing the executives agreed to testify. Scott previously announced an April 27 hearing to “determine whether anti-competitive behavior by the largest meatpacking companies caused increased beef prices, and unfair difficulties to ranchers and farmers, to the detriment of U.S. food consumers.” Consumer prices for beef and veal in March were up 16% from a year earlier, outpacing an overall inflation rate of 8.5%, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.

— Eight new HPAI confirmations in commercial flocks. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has confirmed new cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in eight commercial flocks in Nebraska (1,746,853 commercial layer chickens in Dixon County), Minnesota (214,277 commercial layer chickens in Morrison County; 43,286 commercial broiler chickens in Morrison County; 50,000 commercial turkeys in Yellow Medicine County; 38,000 commercial turkeys in Kandiyohi County; and 45,000 commercials turkeys in Morrison County), and Wisconsin (52,000 commercial turkeys in Barron County). This brings the commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI to 121.

— Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 501,967554 with 6,190,337 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 80,514,666 with 987,560 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 567,188,881 doses administered, 218,622,907 have been fully vaccinated, or 66.60% of the U.S. population.

— The mask mandate aboard planes, trains and buses in the U.S. has been extended until May 3, the federal government confirmed yesterday. The CDC said the order will remain in place to allow the agency to “assess the potential impact the rise of cases has on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and health care system capacity.” The mandate had been set to expire on April 18.

— Biden administration renews Covid public health emergency for 90 days. The Biden administration has renewed for 90 days is Covid-19 public health emergency that was to expire April 16. The move makes it easier for 13 million to 16 million Americans to access health insurance coverage under Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, expands access to telehealth services, makes it easier to sign up for health insurance, and allows for fast-tracking of authorization for Covid-19 treatments, tests and vaccines at the Food and Drug Administration. The action was first declared in January 2020 by the Trump administration.

— Democrats move closer to dropping Iowa’s early slot in presidential nomination process. Democratic Party officials approved a resolution Wednesday that would allow up to five states to hold presidential nomination contests before the first Tuesday in March 2024, based on new criteria that could strip Iowa of its first-in-the-nation status for one of the two major parties. Republicans have shown no sign of changing an early lineup that has traditionally started with Iowa, followed by New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Democrats in 2020 followed a similar schedule, but with Nevada going ahead of South Carolina.

— Marine Le Pen, the French presidential candidate, said she would back a “strategic rapprochement” between NATO and Russia once the war in Ukraine is over, and that, if elected, she would pull France from the alliance’s military command. She said she was motivated by a desire to keep Russia from becoming too cozy with China. Le Pen has long had friendly relations with the Kremlin, and endorsed Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

— Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $43.4 billion offer. Musk’s offer of $54.20 a share comes days after he took a 9% stake in the company, becoming its largest shareholder but rejecting an invitation to join its board. The entrepreneur announced the offer today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing said the $54.20 a share offer was a 38% premium to the share price on April 1, the day before his share purchases became public. “Since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company,” Musk said in a letter to Twitter Chairman Bret Taylor. “My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder,” Musk said. Twitter said it would “carefully review the proposal to determine the course of action that it believes is in the best interest of the Company and all Twitter stockholders.”