Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Address Congress Today

U.S. avg. national diesel prices plunged 74 cents a gallon since first week of November

The Senate in a procedural 70-25 vote advanced a sprawling spending package that would keep the government open through next fall after senior lawmakers from both parties reached a compromise on billions of dollars in federal spending, including another round of emergency aid to Ukraine. The Senate could pass the 12-bill, $1.7 trillion omnibus appropriations package today, readying it for the House to also take a final vote before a stopgap funding the government expires Friday at midnight.

Gas prices continue to plunge as energy supplies increase and demand drops. The national average cost for a gallon of gas dropped to an 18-month low on Tuesday. Experts predict the cost of a gallon of gas could fall below $3 by the end of the year.

U.S. average national diesel prices have fallen nearly 74 cents a gallon since the first week of November.

High prices for crops and livestock are fueling a boom in America’s Farm Belt, the Wall Street Journal reports in a story largely based on USDA’s Dec. 1 issued update on U.S. farm income.

Construction of new U.S. single-family homes fell in November to the lowest level since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as elevated mortgage rates, high costs for builders and fading demand from consumers weighed on the market.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will take part in a video conference today to mark the launch of the Kovykta gas field, which feeds into the Power of Siberia pipeline carrying Russian gas to China, the Kremlin said.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy makes surprise visit to Washington… Zelenskyy holds a joint press conference with President Biden at 4:30 pm ET and addresses Congress later in the evening.

China says only deaths from respiratory failure count in official Covid toll. China’s adviser to National Health Commission says deaths among elderly people with other chronic illnesses will ‘not be counted as Covid-induced’.

The U.S. is expanding its dispute with Canada over its dairy tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocations, requesting new dispute settlement consultations with Canada under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Two senior U.S. senators asked the Biden administration to start trade-agreement talks with Ecuador and Uruguay, using a pact with Mexico and Canada as a template to expand export opportunities with “trusted partners” in Latin America as China’s influence grows.

Meetings at OMB continue on states’ requests for year-round E15.

A House committee voted to release Donald Trump’s tax information to the public. House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal released a report about the Internal Revenue Service’s audits of Trump’s taxes late Tuesday, which summarized the former president’s personal and business income and tax payments from 2015 through 2020. The documents showed he and his companies lost millions of dollars during some of the years he was running for president and in the White House.

Biden administration asks Supreme Court to allow Title 42 to expire next week. Title 42 continued to remain in effect on Tuesday as lawyers for the Biden administration, migrant rights activists and Republican governors debated its continued use in written briefs submitted to the Supreme Court. The Justice Department acknowledged that the end of the restrictions, which are known as Title 42, would ‘likely lead to disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings,’” but said the solution is not to “extend indefinitely a public health measure that all now acknowledge has outlived its public health justification.”

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened up around 300 points. In Asia, Japan -0.68%. Hong Kong +0.34%. China -0.34%. India -0.99%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.52%. Paris +0.73%. Frankfurt +0.97%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices finished with gains after spending time on both sides of unchanged during the session with late session selling pressure tempering gains. The Dow ended up 92.20 points, 0.28%, at 32,849.74. The Nasdaq edged up 1.08 points, 0.01%, at 10,547.11. The S&P 500 rose 3.96 points, 0.10%, at 3,921.62.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: March corn rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.52, around the middle of the past week’s range.
• Soy complex: March soybeans rose 16 1/4 cents to $14.79 3/4. March soymeal gained $3.20 to $449.30. March soyoil rose 140 points to 64.81 cents, the contract’s highest close since Dec. 1.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat rose 2 cents to $7.50 1/2. March HRW wheat gained 3 1/2 cents to $8.47.
• Cotton: March cotton gained 376 points to 87.84 cents, the highest closing price since Sept. 23.
• Cattle: February live cattle fell 47.5 cents to $155.575. January feeder futures leapt $1.525 to $183.625.
• Hogs: February lean hog futures fell $1.45 to $84.25. The CME lean hog index fell 71 cents to $80.84, the lowest level since Jan. 27. Today’s index is expected to rise 2 cents.
  

Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat opened lower overnight but firmed through the session and are higher this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were mostly 5 to 6 cents higher, SRW wheat futures were 3 to 4 cents higher, HRW was 7 to 8 cents higher and HRS wheat was 2 to 3 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were more than $1.50 higher, and the U.S. dollar index was around 100 points higher.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. current account deficit is expected to narrow to $222 billion in the third quarter from $251.09 billion in the prior quarter. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: The U.S. current account deficit narrowed by $21.6 billion, or 9.1%, to $217.1 billion in Q3 2022, from a revised $238.7 billion in Q2 and compared with market expectations of $222.0 billion. It was the smallest current account gap for over a year, and equivalent to 3.4% of GDP (vs 3.8% of GDP in Q2), as a decreased deficit on goods offset a narrower surplus on primary income and a larger deficit on secondary income. The goods deficit shrank to $271.1 billion from $310.9 billion in Q2, helped by rising exports of nonmonetary gold and capital goods, mostly civilian aircraft engines and parts and other industrial machinery, as well as falling imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies and materials. Meanwhile, the secondary income deficit rose to $52.2 billion from $42.3 billion and the primary income surplus declined to $45.6 billion from $57.2 billion. Considering Q1-Q3, the current account gap widened to $738.4 billion from $621.5 billion in the same period of 2021.
• U.S. existing-home sales are expected to fall to an annual pace of 4.17 million in November from 4.43 million one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
• Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is expected to tick up to 101.2 in December from 100.2 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)

Japanese yen strengthened more than 4% vs. the dollar yesterday following the BOJ expanding the yield cap on JGBs. But even with the 4% move, the yen remains decidedly negative vs. the dollar YTD. Says the Sevens Report: “all the BOJ effectively did on Tuesday was allow natural selling of JGBs (Japanese Government Bonds) to continue until yields hit 0.5%, and then the JGBs “infinity bid” reappears and stops the decline in price/rise in yield (point being, they didn’t actually raise rates, they just let the market operate a bit more freely). Regardless of that nuance, however, the bottom line is that the BOJ did surprise markets by announcing this change on Tuesday and it does represent a hawkish shift (albeit a small one).”

WSJ columnist James Mackintosh says two important elements stand out. First, the BOJ has begun its exit from an increasingly unrealistic policy it dubbed “yield-curve control” without, at least so far, crashing the markets. Second, there’s much further to go, as the BOJ hasn’t even succeeded in its short-term aim of returning its domestic markets to normal functioning.

U.S. housing slump deepens. Construction of new single-family homes fell in November to the lowest level since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as elevated mortgage rates, high costs for builders and fading demand from consumers weighed on the market. The Commerce Department on Tuesday said single-family starts dropped to an annual pace of 828,000 from 863,000 the prior month.

Single-family construction had held above a 1 million rate from July 2020 through June 2022, the longest such stretch since the runup to the 2007 housing bust. Builders appear to be shifting some activity to apartments and condominiums, but the overall pace of home construction has slowed this year. The outlook doesn’t appear bright: The number of construction permits issued, an indicator of future activity, fell sharply across single- and multi-family categories last month.

U.S. mortgage rates fall to 3-month low. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) in the U.S. fell by 8bps to 6.34% in the week ended December 16th, hitting the lowest level since the first week of September, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed. Mortgage rates stayed above 7% in the beginning of November, close to levels not seen since 2001, and more than double the 3% reported a year earlier, but have been falling since then, tracking Treasury yields lower.

WSJ: High commodity prices feed U.S. Farm Belt boom. High prices for crops and livestock are fueling a boom in the U.S. Farm Belt, making farmers, ranchers and agricultural companies rare winners as the broader American economy softens, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). U.S. net farm income is expected to surge to $160.5 billion this year, boosted by increased prices for wheat, milk and other farm goods, according to a USDA forecast. If realized, farm income would reach the highest level since 1973 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro and yen slightly firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was weaker, trading around 3.65%, with a weaker tone in global government bond yields. WTI crude futures rose 2% to above $77.5 per barrel on Wednesday, after an industry report showed that U.S. crude inventories declined by 3.1 million barrels last week, exceeding estimates for a 0.2-million-barrel drop and compared to the prior week’s 7.8-million-barrel build-up. Russian seaborne crude shipments also collapsed in the first full week of the latest G7 sanctions, while TC Energy Corp postponed the full return of its Keystone pipeline by a week, as reported by Bloomberg. Elsewhere, oil prices remain buoyed by a strengthening demand outlook in top crude importer China, as the country appeared intent on ending its strict zero-Covid policy and delivering more pro-growth measures centered on reviving consumption. Gold and silver futures were slightly weaker, with gold around $1,825 per troy ounce and silver around $24.17 per troy ounce.

• Crude oil net exporter title within reach for U.S. Net US crude oil imports dropped to 1.1 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level on record, while exports are sitting at a record 3.4 million bpd, putting the U.S. on track to become a net crude oil exporter late next year for the first time since World War II — if shale production ramps up and international demand stays healthy, analysts predict. The U.S. is also expected to remain a leading liquefied natural gas exporter as strong European demand will likely push exports higher in 2023. Link for details via Reuters.

• U.S. average national diesel prices have fallen nearly 74 cents a gallon since the first week of November. For the week of Dec. 19, the average price per gallon — at $4.596 — dropped 15.8 cents, following a 21.3-cent decline, to $4.754, for the week of Dec. 12. That followed a 17.4-cent decline, to $4.967, for the week of Dec. 5, for a 54.5-cent decline over the last three weeks alone and a 73.7-cent decline over the last seven weeks, going back to the week of Nov. 7, when it checked in at $5.333 per gallon. The Dec. 19 weekly average is its lowest tally since the week of Feb. 28, when it came in at $4.101, based on EIA data. And it also marks the third time the national diesel average came in below the $5 per gallon mark, going back to the week of Oct. 3, when it was at $4.836, which, at that time, marked the third week in a row of weekly averages below $5 per gallon, with the week of Sep. 19, at $4.964, and the week of Sept. 26, at $4.889. Compared to the same week a year ago, this week’s diesel average is up 97.0 cents, down from annual increases of the previous two weeks, at $1.105 and $1.293, respectively.

• Sugar futures on ICE rose to 20.8 cents per pound in late December, the highest since January of 2017, supported by a stronger Brazilian real as supply concerns continue to mount. As industry groups point to the end of the crushing season, heavy rainfall in top producer and exporter Brazil caused mills to leave millions of tonnes of sugarcane crops untouched in fields to be harvested next year, significantly reducing supply. Output in Brazil has further downside risks amid the possibility that president-elect Lula could lift or cancel the country’s gasoline price cap in January, driving producers to allocate cane for the more-profitable biofuel blending instead of sugar crushing. Elsewhere, poor weather also delayed harvests in Thailand, Australia, and Central America.

• Ag trade: Iraq purchased 150,000 MT of milling wheat expected to be sourced from Australia.

• NWS national map of watches, warnings, etc. with pink being winter storm warnings and red blizzards warnings and the cold warnings are in light blue and gray.

• NWS weather: Powerful winter storm to produce a multitude of weather hazards across the central and eastern United States through the end of the week... ...Bitter cold and life-threatening wind chills over the northern Plains to surge southward today and swing towards the East Coast on Friday... ...Significant freezing rain possible across parts of western Oregon and Washington beginning Thursday night.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Modest followthrough buying overnight
• Russia to launch gas field pipeline to China (details in Russia/Ukraine section)
• Beef packers working to improve margins
• Cash hog market searching for a low

— Russia to launch gas field pipeline to China. Russian President Vladimir Putin will take part in a video conference on Wednesday to mark the launch of the Kovykta gas field, which feeds into the Power of Siberia pipeline carrying Russian gas to China, the Kremlin said. The field is the largest in eastern Russia, and its launch is part of a major drive by Russia to ramp up gas supplies to China as the European Union cuts reliance on Russian energy in response to the war in Ukraine. Russia started selling natural gas to China at the end of 2019 via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which supplied about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2021. In February, Putin reached an agreement to sell an additional 10 bcm of gas to China from Russia’s Far East through a new, smaller pipeline to China’s northeast. Russia also plans to construct another major pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2, via Mongolia with a view to selling an additional 50 bcm of gas per year.

— China’s leader Xi Jinping says Beijing is willing to mediate with Moscow to end Ukraine war. “China is willing to work with Russia to take bilateral relations forward in the new era and jointly promote global governance in a more just and reasonable direction,” Xi said, according to Xinhua. Meanwhile, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev says the two countries should advance cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture to resist pressure from outside. Medvedev’s trip to Beijing came at a time when both Moscow and Kyiv have reached out for support, as the war enters its 10th month and while the two sides are locked in a stalemate battle.

— U.S.-bound exports from China’s Xinjiang drop 64%, monthly trade data shows. Monthly exports to the U.S. from Xinjiang hit their lowest November reading since records began in 2017.

— Senators could pass a $1.7 trillion government funding bill as soon as today. Members voted 70-25 on the first procedural vote to start debate on the measure. Both chambers must pass the measure and President Joe Biden must sign it into law by midnight Friday night to avoid a lapse in government spending. A House vote later this week may be even closer than the Senate vote. House Republican leaders informed GOP lawmakers they’re urging members to vote against the omnibus. If no Republicans support the measure, Democrats could only afford to lose two votes while maintaining a majority.

— Slowdown of whale protections. In a measure to protect the lobster industry, the Maine congressional delegation insisted on language in the government funding bill that would delay for six years new protections for the endangered North Atlantic right whale. Link for details.

— USDA aid for bioplastics. USDA awarded a total of $9.5 million to three projects that would create value-added bioproducts from agricultural commodities. One project would convert food waste into packaging and containers for food and beverages. Link for details.

— Senate will vote today on the nomination of Lynne Tracy to be U.S. ambassador to Russia. Tracy –the first woman who would hold this high-profile post – previously served as deputy chief of mission in Moscow. A career Foreign Service officer, Tracy is currently U.S. ambassador to Armenia. She would replace John Sullivan, who recently stepped down.

— Energy Department: Senators by voice vote confirmed Gene Rodriguez to be an assistant secretary at the Energy Department.

— No agreement yet on pending high-level U.S. nominees: Alexis Taylor to be USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural services, Jose Emilio Esteban to be USDA undersecretary for food safety, and Doug McKalip to be the chief agricultural negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Several lawmakers have placed holds on the nominations. Efforts are underway to secure votes on them in the full Senate before the chamber adjourns.

— China to investigate ‘excessive’ hog price decline. China’s state planner said on Wednesday it called a meeting of hog industry experts to ensure stable prices after recent excessive declines. According to experts the slump was due to a “temporary” period of weak consumption, it said, adding that there is no oversupply.

— China said it would limit its official tally of Covid-19 deaths to those who tested positive for the virus and died from respiratory failure. The definition is narrower than the previous standard, which included anyone who died after testing positive. As the virus spreads throughout the country, just five covid fatalities were reported on Tuesday; the true number is likely to be far higher.

China’s National Health Commission on Wednesday said there had been no new Covid-related deaths — and that it was retracting one of the Beijing fatalities from the official tally.

Meanwhile, China’s workers are calling in sick with Covid after Beijing’s U-turn. An abrupt end to harsh pandemic rules has left factories and businesses with little insulation from fast-spreading infections.

— Biden team expands dairy dispute with Canada via USMCA. The U.S. is expanding its dispute with Canada over its dairy tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocations, requesting new dispute settlement consultations with Canada under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The U.S. has identified additional components of Canada’s actions that appear to be inconsistent with USMCA commitments, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) said in a statement. “We remain very concerned by Canada’s refusal to honor USMCA commitments,” Ambassador Katherine Tai said. “Rather than work toward meeting its obligations, Canada persists in implementing new dairy policies that are inconsistent with the USMCA, and which continue to deny U.S. workers, farmers, producers, and exporters the full benefits of market access they were initially promised.” \

The U.S. won a case under USMCA dispute settlement procedures, but has rejected Canada’s solution to the situation and requested additional consultations in May on the policies. Those discussions raised additional concerns by the U.S. and prompted this latest request for formal discussions on the issues.

If there is no eventual solution, the U.S. can request another dispute settlement panel be established.

— Two senior U.S. senators asked the Biden administration to start trade-agreement talks with Ecuador and Uruguay, using a pact with Mexico and Canada as a template to expand export opportunities with “trusted partners” in Latin America as China’s influence grows. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, and fellow committee member Rob Portman — a former U.S. trade chief and an Ohio Republican — asked Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to capitalize on the success of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and expand relations in the Western Hemisphere.

Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso met with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden Monday at the White House, where the leaders agreed that the countries had made historic progress in strengthening bilateral ties. Lasso has previously noted that Ecuador is the only nation on the Western Hemisphere’s Pacific Coast that has no free-trade agreement with the U.S.

In Uruguay, President Luis Lacalle Pou has started free-trade talks with China, wooed Turkey and applied to join the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc as he seeks to open markets to for the nation’s goods and services.

— Treasury delays some limits on EV tax credits. Some restrictions on the electric-vehicle tax credit that were slated to take effect Jan. 1 will be delayed until March after the U.S. Treasury Department postponed issuing related guidance on how to meet the new requirements.

— USPS to electrify majority of fleet. The U.S. Postal Service will spend nearly $10 billion to purchase 66,000 EVs for its mail delivery fleet by 2028, according to a statement Tuesday. The postal service said it will continue exploring the potential to make its entire fleet electric.

— Meetings at OMB continue on states’ requests for year-round E15. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has held four meetings with stakeholders on EPA’s plan for requests from eight states for removal of the 1-psi volatility waiver provided under the Clean Air Act for gasoline-ethanol fuels.

The meetings so far have been with both those backing the requests — Renewable Fuels Association, National Corn Growers Association, several state corn grower organizations — and refiners/petroleum interests that are seeking to delay the requests — American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and companies such as Valero, Flint Hills Resources, CHS, Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil and Chevron. Those groups submitted a petition to EPA in October calling for a delay in the requests, citing an “insufficient supply of gasoline and serious harm to U.S. fuels markets and consumers that would start just six months from now if EPA were to grant these requests.” The petition argued that there would be fuel shortages and refining costs would increase as there is not enough time to “add infrastructure or make other modifications” for E15 fuels.

Meetings are slated Thursday with the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association and on Jan. 4 with the American Petroleum Institute on the requests from Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

— ConocoPhillips warning on Alaska plan. The head of ConocoPhillips’s Alaska operations signaled the company would walk away from an $8 billion oil project in the Arctic if the US government forced it to further scale down drilling to just two locations, saying that would no longer be economically viable.

— Tougher EPA emission rules for trucks. The EPA as expected on Tuesday released final tailpipe emission rules for trucks, which some health and environmental groups say don’t go far enough to be adequately protective. The final rules for nitrogen oxide emissions are 80% more stringent than current standards, which haven’t been updated for more than 20 years, according to an Environmental Protection Agency press release. This action begins reductions by model year 2027, and is the first of three in the agency’s Clean Trucks Plan. The next action is projected for March 2023, according to EPA Administrator Michael Regan, speaking at a Tuesday press conference.

— The European Union’s own energy regulator cast doubt on the possibility that the bloc’s price cap on gas would lower energy costs. Link to details via the Financial Times.

— France and Germany unveil their plan for countering U.S. green industry subsidies. Paris and Berlin’s strategy to compete with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by unlocking more intra-EU state aid for companies would only slow Europe’s overall deindustrialization. France and Germany issued a joint statement outlining their regarding the U.S. IRA, which introduces $369 billion worth of tax cuts and other benefits for green technologies (like electric vehicles) that are made in the United States. The Franco-German strategy has two parts. One: Paris and Berlin are urging the White House to extend the IRA’s benefits to European companies (similar to what the United States does for Canadian and Mexican companies). Two: they’re calling on Brussels to develop its own ''green industrial policy.’' France and Germany want the European Commission to speed up the approval process for state aid for low-carbon technologies, so that national governments can provide tax credits and subsidies for green-related industrial sectors without the commission delaying the process. Berlin and Paris also want to cut in half the time to approve Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI), which allows two or more EU member states to jointly back innovation projects without breaking the bloc’s state aid rules.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 654,756,940 with 6,670,287 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 100,007,330 with 1,088,280 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 660,400,812 doses administered, 267,907,969 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.31% of the U.S. population.

— 36%: The proportion of people over 65 who have received the latest Covid booster, compared to the 94% of people in the same age group who received their first series of Covid vaccines, the New York Times reports (link).

— Trump’s taxes to be released. The Democratic-led House Ways and Means Committee said Tuesday it will release former President Donald Trump’s tax returns within days, and asserted that the IRS failed to properly audit the former president’s taxes while he was in office. The committee also released a report Tuesday detailing six years’ worth of the former president’s returns, including his claims of massive annual losses that significantly reduced his tax burden.

— Jeffries picks DelBene to chair DCCC. Incoming House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday announced he would nominate Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. DelBene is “he outgoing chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition,” and ran unsuccessfully to lead the [DCCC] several years ago but lost to Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL). Reps. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) and Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.) had publicly declared candidacies for the position soon after the midterm elections.

— Virginia Democrats will start counting votes today in Tuesday’s “firehouse primary” for the 4th District’s special election today. The winner will have a significant leg up in February’s special election in a district that the late Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin won by 30 percentage points this November, just weeks before he passed away.

— House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection will release its full report today, marking the end of the panel’s expansive probe into the day’s fateful events. A summary was released on Monday, concluding former President Donald Trump was ultimately responsible for the insurrection. The report releasing today is based on 1,000-plus interviews and other documents collected — including emails, texts and phone records — in the year-and-a-half-long investigation undertaken by the bipartisan committee.

— GAO to conduct infrastructure oversight. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) will get $5 million to conduct oversight for last year’s infrastructure law, including investigations and audits. It directs the Comptroller General to submit a spending plan for that oversight within 90 days, an explanatory statement from appropriators said. House GOP lawmakers are planning to escalate oversight of the law’s implementation in the next Congress.

— Immigration, border enforcement get spending boosts. The Department of Homeland Security would get a net $60.7 billion under the omnibus. Customs and Border Protection would get $16.5 billion, including $1.6 billion to tackle a surge in migrant encounters along the border. The package would also fund 300 additional Border Patrol agents. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement would get $8.4 billion.

— Title 42 update. The Biden administration wants the Supreme Court to allow for the end of Title 42 — but not for at least a week. On Tuesday, the administration encouraged the court’s justices to reject an emergency bid by a group of GOP-led states to keep the controversial Trump-era border restriction in effect while legal challenges play out. But it also asked the court to delay the policy’s termination until at least Dec. 27, citing ongoing preparations for an influx of migrants and the upcoming holiday weekend. Title 42 had been scheduled to end today, but Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily froze that deadline on Monday. Until the Supreme Court issues an order — which could come at any time, as the court has no deadline — it will remain in place.

— Supreme Court set a date for a hearing on two legal challenges to President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program for Feb. 28, 2023.

— Trudeau to join summit meeting. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada is expected to join his U.S. and Mexican counterparts for the North American Leaders Summit, also known as the Three Amigos meeting, on Jan. 10 in Mexico City.

— Elon Musk said he will step down as head of Twitter when he finds a replacement. “I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams,” Musk tweeted on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, Musk cast doubt on the results of a Twitter poll he had posted, which called for him to resign. Musk suggested that the outcome may have been affected by automated bot accounts.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package |