Ukraine’s Ag Minister Delivers a ‘Wow’ Speech from Ukraine at USDA’s Outlook Forum

U.S. equities sharply lower on hot inflation news

Soybean sales to China slow in most recent week. USDA’s weekly Export Sales update showed sales of several U.S. ag commodities to China have continued, but the total for soybeans for the current marketing year marked a slowdown and there were net reductions on corn. For 2022-23, data for the week ended Feb. 16 included net sales of 68,250 tonnes of wheat, 115,700 tonnes of sorghum, 176,247 tonnes of soybeans, and 46,241 running bales of upland cotton, but also included net reductions of 69,941 tonnes for corn. There were no sales for 2023-24. Net sales for 2023 of 4,316 tonnes of beef and 12,084 tonnes of pork were reported.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, coming above economists’ expectations. The report added to worries that the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer to quell inflationary pressures.

Russia, which insisted it was only engaging in a “special operation,” has been at war with Ukraine for a year. The Kremlin reportedly expected Kyiv to fall in three days. A year later, Kyiv is still in Ukrainian hands. Some 141 countries backed a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly demanding a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine; only seven countries voted against.

The West is imposing fresh sanctions on Russia. On the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and Britain announced new measures aimed at individuals, groups, banks and defense companies, while the EU and Japan planned more restrictions. The Pentagon added that it would spend $2 billion to supply Kyiv with new drones and defense systems, while NATO and the European Commission rejected China’s call for a cease-fire.

China’s President Xi Jinping presented a peace plan for Ukraine. Beijing, maintaining its self-described neutral status, released a 12-point document calling for both Russia and Ukraine to end hostilities and move towards the negotiating table in hopes of “reach[ing] a comprehensive ceasefire.” Xi urged the West to stop “unilateral sanctions” and called for “abandoning the Cold War mentality,” likely a reference to the U.S.-led NATO alliance. What’s more, the plan also cautioned against expanding the NATO bloc. Beijing wants sanctions against Russia stopped, and faster grain exports. EU and NATO leaders say the proposal is tainted by Beijing having ‘taken sides’ in the conflict. Link to more on China’s peace proposal.

Early data suggests a Group of Seven price cap on Russian petroleum products and EU bans on Russian oil imports have curbed Moscow’s energy revenues without creating oil shortages.

Europe is dialing back its criticism of U.S. clean-energy subsidies, after months of denunciations of the measures contained in a package of climate, tax and healthcare legislation signed by President Biden last year. For more see Energy & Climate Change section.

On the farm policy front, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack on Thursday made his views well known regarding any suggested cuts to food stamps. Meanwhile, USDA, the White House and farm-state lawmakers are coming under criticism from the poultry sector on the lack of financial aid due to the devastating and ongoing bird flu situation.

A winter storm will intensify over Southern California today, after dumping almost a foot of snow on Portland, Oregon. In Michigan, snow and wind gusts have caused widespread power outages. Some 1,600 flights were canceled and almost a million customers in the Midwest lost power. What’s next? The storm will move toward Southern California, which could experience historic levels of snowfall in the coming days.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 350 points lower and is currently around 450 points lower after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a stronger-than-expected increase in prices last month. In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong -1.7%. China -0.6%. India -0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.5%.

U.S. equities yesterday: Wholesale inflation data and comments from Fed officials that signaled some backed a more-aggressive rate rise at the most recent Fed meeting prompted a lower close. The Down ended down 431.20 points, 1.26%, at 33,696.85. The Nasdaq fell 214.76 points, 1.78%, at 11,855.83. The S&P 500 declined 57.19 points, 1.38%, at 4,090.41.

Through the first four days of the week, the S&P 500 is down 1.64%, set for its worst week since Dec. 16; the Dow is down nearly 1.99%, headed for its fourth straight losing week; and the Nasdaq is down 1.67%, on pace for its second negative week in three.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: March corn fell 13 3/4 to $6.60 1/4, near the session low and the largest daily drop since Jan. 4.
• Soy complex: March soybeans fell 5 1/4 cents to $15.34 1/4, near the session low. March meal ended the session mostly flat, just 50 cents higher at $493.10. March soyoil lost 62 points, closing at 62.04 cents, near the session low.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat futures gained 1 3/4 cent to $7.38 1/4. May SRW rose 1/2 cent at $7.50 1/2. March HRW wheat futures fell 14 1/4 cents to $8.61 3/4. May HRW wheat dropped 12 3/4 cents at $8.56 3/4. Prices closed nearer the session lows with HRW futures hitting a three-week low today. March spring wheat futures fell 6 1/4 cents to $9.08.
• Cotton: March cotton rose 16 points to 82.41 cents. May cotton rose 28 points to close at 82.16 cents, in the lower third of the day’s range.
• Cattle: Cattle futures edged upward Thursday, with the expiring February contract rising 25 cents to $165.15 and most-active April gaining 25 cents to $165.325. March feeders surged $1.25 to $189.225.
• Hogs: April lean hogs fell 35 cents to $86.20 and near mid-range.
  

Ag markets today: Soybeans firmed on light corrective buying overnight, while the corn and wheat markets faced pressure. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 3 to 6 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 7 to 9 cents lower and spring wheat was 4 to 7 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were modestly higher, while the U.S. dollar index was more than 300 points higher.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. consumer spending for January is expected to increase 1.4% from the prior month; personal income is forecast to rise 1.2%. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: Personal income in the U.S. rose by 0.6% from a month earlier in January 2023, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in December but missing market expectations of 1.0% growth. The increase in income was led by rising compensation, reflecting private wages and salaries in both services-producing industries and goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, government social benefits were down in January, as a decrease in “other” benefits due to the expiration of the extended child tax credit as well as a decline in one-time refundable tax credits issued by states was partly offset by an increase in Social Security. Disposable personal income surged 2.0% in January.
• U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy for January is expected to rise 0.5% from one month earlier and 4.4% from one year earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: U.S. core PCE inflation rises more than expected. Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, jumped by .6% in January, the most since August, and above market estimates of 0.4%. The annual rate, the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, accelerated to 4.7% from 4.6% and surpassed forecasts of 4.3%. The PCE index also increased 0.6% on the month and 5.4% on the year, both above expectations.
• USDA Weekly Export Sales report, 8:30 a.m. ET.
• University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is expected to hold at 66.4 in February, unchanged from a preliminary reading. (10 a.m. ET)
• U.S. new home sales are expected to rise to an annual pace of 620,000 in January from 616,000 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Governor Philip Jefferson and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester on inflation at 10:15 a.m. ET, St. Louis’s James Bullard on inflation at 11:30 a.m. ET, and Boston’s Susan Collins and governor Christopher Waller on inflation at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Fed chair Jerome Powell’s favorite inflation gauge of service-sector prices accelerated in January, adding to the case for further rate hikes.

The overall personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index rose 0.6% on the month and 5.4% from a year ago. Wall Street had expected a 0.4% monthly rise. The 12-month PCE inflation rate was expected to slip to 4.9%. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile food and inflation prices, also rose 0.6% on the month vs. forecasts of 0.4%. The core inflation rate rose to 4.7%, defying expectations it would dip to 4.3%.

Why does the Fed prefer PCE? Compared to the headline grabbing Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is based on a survey of consumers, personal consumption expenditures is based on a poll of businesses. CPI data also tends to be subject to fewer broad-based revisions, while PCE accounts for substitution effects.

India emerges as global economic power. 2023 could be the year India finally emerges as a global economic heavyweight. The Wall Street Journal reports (link) that solid economic growth, microeconomic reform and a changed geopolitical environment are combining to elevate India on the global stage. So why doesn’t the U.S. have a fair trade agreement (FTA) with India? Both the White House (under Trump and Biden) and the State Department have blocked previous initiatives.

Germany’s economy shrank by 0.4% in the last three months of 2022, a larger-than-expected drop caused by falling consumption and reduced capital investment. Germany had avoided any contraction in GDP in the first three quarters of 2022, despite skyrocketing energy prices due to the war in Ukraine. Analysts predict Europe’s largest economy will shrink again this quarter, meaning the country would enter a recession.

The future of Japan’s economic policy came today. The first was the release of inflation figures for January. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food costs, reached 4.2% in January, a 41-year high, up from 4% in December. Despite rising prices, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy even as other central banks raised interest rates sharply. Ueda Kazuo, who will become governor of the BOJ in April, offered the second clue about Japan’s economic future when he spoke at confirmation hearings in parliament, his first public appearance since his nomination. Ueda said the bank should maintain ultra-low interest rates for the time being to prevent an economic slowdown. But he added that the BOJ should be “creative” with its policy, signaling that he isn’t in a rush to overhaul the BOJ’s bond-buying program.

From 401(k) to 301 (k)? Retirement savings took a beating last year. According to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans, the average account balance ended 2022 down 23% from a year earlier to $103,900. Fidelity found savers are contributing the same amount, and few are drawing down loans. Plus, balances ticked higher in the fourth quarter. “Everyone is feeling pressure financially — there’s a lot of uncertainty out there in the markets and the economy,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership. “Don’t let short-term economic events derail your long-term retirement savings efforts.”

Fidelity Investments is the nation’s largest provider of retirement services with more than 43 million accounts.

Average IRA balances plunged by a similar amount, falling 20% Y/Y to $104,000, while 403(b) plans for public sector and non-profit organizations declined 19% to $92,683.

Nearly half of all retirees now expect to outlive their current savings, which may cause some regrets among those that chose to retire early because of the pandemic — only to be hammered by inflation.

2022 also ended with the lowest personal savings rate since 2005, while household debt climbed to its highest level in two decades.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer as the euro and British pound were both weaker against the U.S. currency. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was firmer, trading around 3.9%, with a mostly higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil has held most of its overnight advances, with U.S. crude around $76 per barrel and Brent around $82.60 per barrel. Gold and silver were weaker, with gold around $1,824 per troy ounce and silver around $21.08 per troy ounce.

• Links to USDA outlook presentations:

USDA 2023 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook

USDA 2023 Livestock and Poultry Outlook

USDA 2023 Dairy Outlook

USDA 2023 Cotton Outlook

USDA 2023 Sugar Outlook

• Ag trade: South Korea purchased a total of 247,000 MT of corn from four separate tenders – 197,000 MT optional origin and 50,000 MT expected to be sourced from South Africa. Iraq purchased 250,000 MT of Australian wheat.

• NWS weather outlook: An unusually cold and slow-moving winter storm to bring very heavy snowfall and strong winds to California and adjacent areas of the West through Saturday... ...Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible for parts of southern California... ...Heavy snow possible for Northwest mountains later this weekend... ...Temperatures to remain above normal in the East this weekend.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Mild corrective buying in soybeans
• Another drop in feedlot numbers expected
• Cold Storage Report out this afternoon
• Cash cattle trade higher
• Hog premium narrows

— Russia continues to be stymied in Ukraine. On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military surprised analysts again by failing to capture the city of Vuhledar despite an aggressive offensive. Concludes the New York Times: “Ukraine’s success on the battlefield. Ukrainians’ ability to hold back Russia — and actually push it out of conquered territory — has kept Western unity afloat. Without it, there would be no war effort for the West to rally around.” The newspaper concludes: “Consider this all from China’s perspective: If the West does not remain united to defend a democracy on its doorstep, is it really going to do much for distant Taiwan? That is the lens through which others will look at what the West has done.”

— China, a key Russian ally, has presented what it calls a peace plan encouraging a cease-fire and negotiations. Although most Western countries have dismissed Beijing’s plan as a nonstarter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed some openness to Chinese mediation; “We’ll draw some conclusions after we see the specifics of what they offer … We would like to have a meeting with China,” he said.

— Russia was a focal point at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum. When the Outlook Forum kicked off last year in 2022, things were just hours into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Tanks that rolled into Ukraine all but obliterated the charts and forecasts that many of the presenters delivered, including those of Seth Meyer, USDA chief economist, tasked with setting the stage for the event with a U.S. and global view of agriculture and the economic setting. Former Chief Economist Joe Glauber recalled talking with Meyer just before the meeting began last year, noting the forecasts were obviously going to be dramatically altered from what USDA analysts had spent a long time preparing.

This year, the Russian invasion remains a factor and still holds a level of uncertainty, particularly depending on the outcome of talks to continue the Black Sea grain deal that has allowed Ukraine grain to flow into world market channels.

The USDA event featured one prominent non-live presentation for understandable reasons — Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi. In a pre-recorded video from Ukraine, Solskyi thanked those in attendance for supporting his country, urging continued help. He also showed stark images of fields burning or ones that had burned, aerial footage of fields pocked with bomb craters, farmers racing to save remaining portions of fields from advancing fires and other images of the impacts of war on his country. Many attendees were struck by the presentation, with some audibly reacting to the images.

Clearly Ukraine’s ability to produce has been reduced and their ability to move their agricultural products into commerce limited. Solskyi said the invasion was clearly contributing to food price inflation and negatively impacting those not just in his country but in nations that have depended on Ukraine for food needs.

— Bottom line for Russia/Ukraine war. Russia has 320,000 troops in Ukraine, although experts say its capabilities are declining. Neither side can make gains without a major advantage in weaponry or force size. As the second year of conflict begins, Vladimir Putin keeps throwing Russians into combat there and the Ukrainians keep killing them.

— The U.S. announced new sanctions against Russian entities and companies from other countries, including China, that it says are supporting Moscow’s war effort. New targets include a dozen Russian financial institutions and entities tied to Russia’s defense and technology industries, the U.S. said. The Departments of Commerce and Treasury will also target nearly 90 Russian and third-country companies, including some in China, that officials say have engaged in sanctions evasion and so-called backfilling activities in support of Russia’s defense sector.

Meanwhile, the U.S. announced new action against Russia’s metals and mining sector that include measures it said will significantly increase the cost of importing Russian aluminum.

— The U.S. will send Ukraine another $2 billion in security assistance under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, to build on previous efforts to aid Ukrainian defenses against Russia.

— An agricultural policy review report for 2021 was published (link) by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). It details new programs and policies implemented during that year. The report is the inaugural edition in a planned series examining annual developments in U.S. agricultural policies. “U.S. agricultural policy developments in 2021 largely focused on addressing impacts on the sector due to the Covid-19 pandemic and extreme weather events. Several new initiatives also aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change and supporting improved equity in access to farm programs and outreach to underserved communities,” the authors noted.

Some of the policy changes in the report:

• Pandemic Assistance for Producers program, including a new Quality Loss Adjustment program, as well as the commitment of $10 billion in assistance for disaster-related production losses incurred in 2020 and 2021;

• changes in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) focused on the adoption of climate-smart agriculture;

• release of the USDA Action Plan for Climate Adaptation and Resilience;

• announcement of the new Climate-Smart Agriculture and Forestry Partnership Program;

• higher benefit levels for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP);

• $500 million invested in expanding capacity in the meat and poultry processing industry; and

• Agricultural Marketing Service’s new Dealer Statutory Trust to Protect Livestock Sellers.

— The White House is reportedly weighed a bigger payroll tax to fund Social Security. Biden administration officials have discussed raising payroll taxes for wealthy Americans to cover a funding shortfall, according to the Washington Post (link). The White House will present its budget proposal next month.

— Biden to name ex-Mastercard CEO Banga as World Bank president. President Joe Biden will nominate former Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga in a surprise pick to be the next president of the World Bank as Washington pushes the lender to expand its financial firepower and confront issues like climate change. Banga focused on climate change as Mastercard’s chief executive. David Malpass, the previous head, resigned last week, a year before his term was set to expire, amid concerns that he did not take climate change seriously. The Biden administration’s nomination is the first step in appointing a new head of the World Bank, a position that is typically nominated by the U.S., before a nominee is confirmed by the World Bank’s board. Banga isn’t assured of getting the role, since other member countries of the World Bank must confirm his nomination. That said, the U.S.’ nominee usually ends up being picked.

More on Banga: The son of an Indian army general, he worked at multinational companies throughout his career, including Nestlé and Citigroup. He was C.E.O. of Mastercard from 2009 until he retired two years ago, and is currently a vice chairman of General Atlantic, the private equity firm. At Mastercard he made climate change a signature issue: During his tenure as CEO, the company announced the creation of the Priceless Planet Coalition, a group of about 100 firms that make corporate investments to preserve the environment.

— Canada says it tracked Chinese surveillance in Arctic. Canada’s military has said that it found evidence of Chinese surveillance activity in the Arctic. This discovery comes shortly after the United States shot down what it says was a Chinese spy balloon. China has also been accused of Canadian election interference. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said this week that she increasingly sees China as a disruptive power.

— China aims to launch nearly 13,000 satellites to ‘suppress’ Elon Musk’s Starlink, researchers say. The satellite constellation is likely to be launched quickly to prevent SpaceX from hogging ‘low-orbit resources’, according to PLA space scientists. Link to details via the South China Morning Post.

— China says U.S. refused to share information on downed Chinese balloon. China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that the U.S. had refused to reply to a Chinese request for information on the balloon that it had shot downed off the coast of South Carolina earlier this month.

— Is China’s attitude to genetically modified crops changing? A loosening of restrictions may be in the offing, according to the Economist magazine (link).

— Vilsack signals USMCA case is coming on GMO corn situation with Mexico. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said that a dispute settlement request under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USCMA) is likely “coming” relative to Mexico’s decree on barring imports of GMO corn for food use as of 2024. During a press conference at USDA’s Outlook Forum, Vilsack said the two sides are currently in an information-sharing stage which needs to occur. But the U.S. appears to be pursuing a case via USMCA on the matter. “That is going to happen, because we’re essentially in a circumstance where this is not a situation that lends itself to a compromise,” he remarked.

Other U.S. officials addressing the topic during another session at the Forum would only say that the U.S. was keeping the option open to pursue dispute settlement processes under USMCA. U.S. Trade Representative Special Agriculture Negotiator Doug McKalip said the U.S. was reviewing a response from Mexico in the matter and there would be something coming “soon.” McKalip noted Mexico is granting approvals to applications for new genetically modified plant traits. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, McKalip said Mexico appears “interested in finding a solution. I think they’d like to avoid going to a dispute panel.”

Upshot: Vilsack essentially said to not pursue this case could put the U.S. in a difficult position with other trading partners. Vilsack denied that immigration issues were a factor in the U.S. not having already brought a USMCA case against Mexico.

— Brazilian exporters expect to keep supplying China with beef despite ban. Brazilian meatpackers Minerva SA, Marfrig and JBS said they will be able to keep supplying China with beef despite a ban after a confirmed case of bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE) in the country. The companies say they intend to fill export orders to China via plants in neighboring South American countries.

— EU trade chief: Resolution is close on some concerns over IRA EV provisions. The U.S. and European Union (EU) are near agreement on a way to allow EU automakers to have their cars eligible for some of the U.S. tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), specifically on raw materials used in batteries.

The U.S. “indicated openness to find ways how to treat us as a free trade agreement-equivalent partner,” EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters in Bulgaria. The coming deal, he said, would address some “discriminatory aspects” of the IRA. However, not all of EU issues with IRA provisions would be resolved. For example, a provision to allow an exemption for leased vehicles was a “halfway satisfactory solution.”

— A growing number of U.S. farmers have three key questions regarding energy/climate change topics. After traveling to many states and speaking at ag sector events over the past few months, farmers have raised the following questions:

• “When will farmers get an adequate carbon credit payment because the current offers are way below what European farmers are being offered?”
• “Does the Biden administration and USDA realize how many prime U.S. farmland acres are taking the solar panel offers?” The latest example is some 25,000 acres in Missouri. “This is the CRP on steroids,” said one Missouri farmer. Another asks” “Is there any way to make all those acres dual purpose… both solar panels and allowing some type of farming on them?”
• “When will owners of electric vehicles (EVs) pay their fair share of taxes relative to transportation (roads, bridges, etc.)?”

— America is losing the battle against bird flu. So says the Wall Street Journal (link). Since February of last year, the avian flu has led to the death of around 58 million farm-raised birds — mostly egg-laying hens — in the U.S., the deadliest outbreak on record. Turkey prices hit records for Thanksgiving, and weeks later egg prices did the same. Past outbreaks subsided after a few months, but some government officials, scientists and poultry industry executives say this time the avian flu is likely to stick around, potentially keeping egg and turkey prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, a growing number of U.S. producers are criticizing the Biden administration, USDA and farm-state lawmakers for not realizing the bird flu impact on the ag sector and providing indemnity payments as has been offered to other producers for various reasons.

— Vilsack bristled at the “notion of picking on SNAP” when millions of Americans are locked into low-wage jobs and need help buying food. “We never have that conversation,” Vilsack said on Thursday. SNAP benefits will shrink for millions of people on March 1 with the end of emergency allotments that averaged $82 per person, per month and were part of the federal response to the pandemic. The impact “would be a lot more dramatic,” if not for the USDA’s recalculation last summer of the cost of a healthy diet, which increased benefits 27% from pre-pandemic levels, said Vilsack as he defended SNAP as a vital aid to the elderly, disabled people, and the working poor.

SNAP outlays would be billions of dollars lower if the minimum wage or wages in general were higher, said Vilsack. “SNAP is half of the conversation” about food security in America, he said, and wages are the other half.

Food stamps cost a record $159.4 billion in fiscal year 2022, in part because of higher enrollment due to the pandemic and temporary increases in benefits.

Some SNAP critics have suggested more stringent work requirements, lower benefit rates, and restrictions on eligibility.

— USDA raises food price outlook. USDA forecasts food prices will rise 7.9% this year, with a predicted range of 5.5% to 10.3%. That’s up from an expected 7.1% increase last month. Food at home (grocery store) prices are now expected to jump 8.6% (range of 5.6% to 11.8%), up from an 8.0% increase forecast last month. Food away from home (restaurant) prices are now expected to increase 8.3% (range of 7.1% to 9.6%), up from a projected 8.2% rise in January.

Egg prices are predicted to increase 37.8% in 2023, with a range of 18.3% to 62.3%. This wide range reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.

Beef and veal prices are predicted to decrease 1.2% in 2023, with a range of -8.8% to 7.3%. Pork prices are projected to decrease 1.6%, with a range of -8.2% to 5.5%.

— Beyond Meat pares loss in latest results. Revenues at Beyond Meat fell 21% in the fourth quarter, the firm said, dropping to $79.9 million in the final three months of 2022 compared with $100.7 million in the year-ago period. The company said its loss narrowed to $66.9 million or $1.05 per share, after it was $80.4 million ($1.27 per share) one year ago. The firm also reported grocery sales of its products fell 17% with sales to restaurants falling 30% in the fourth quarter in the U.S. while international revenues were down 20% from year-ago marks. Their 2023 outlook is now for revenue to decline $375 million to $415 million as it noted rising competition, inflation and recession concerns are weighing on its outlook.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 674,809,505 with 6,868,951 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 103,353,608 with 1,103,089 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 671,582,379 doses administered, 269,459,752 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.2% of the U.S. population.

— First Republican presidential primary debate is set for Milwaukee in August, the same city that will host the party’s 2024 convention. The Republican National Committee is seeking to have all candidates sign a loyalty pledge vowing to support the eventual nominee in order to be part of the debates. “At this time, no other debates have been sanctioned, nor has the final criteria for the first debate been decided,” Ronna McDaniel, the RNC chairwoman, said in an email to members on Thursday. “The committee will continue its work and will release updates as they become available.”

— Republican presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy sold 4 million shares ($32 million worth) in biotech firm Roivant Science on Wednesday, netting him an estimated $24.2 million in after-tax proceeds. The selloff comes one day after Ramaswamy announced his longshot bid for the GOP candidacy, and marks the first time he sold shares of Roivant since the firm went public in October 2021.

— Pritzker vows to block DeSantis from White House. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said he’s willing to spend what it takes in the next election to help President Joe Biden keep his job — and keep Republicans like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump out of the White House.

— Cotton AWP falls. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton fell to 70.78 cents per pound, effective today (Feb. 24), down from 74.05 cents per pound and the lowest AWP since it was 65.46 cents per pound for the week of Nov. 4, 2022.

— South Carolina introduces what’s been dubbed the ‘Yankee tax.” As South Carolina’s population increases, state Sen. Stephen Goldfinch (R) proposed a bill that would saddle new residents with some additional fees to drive on the state’s roads. The state has seen a 1.7% net gain in population over the past year, making it No. 3 on the list of top ten states by percentage growth. The measure could raise $500 million over the next decade if enacted, though the official fiscal impact is “undetermined.” South Carolina’s current annual budget is $35 billion. Link to Forbes for details.

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