U.S. Reaches EV Tipping Point: 5% of New Car Sales Are Electric

President Biden: No decision yet on rolling back China import tariffs

Russia continues to aggressively move to take the entire Donbas region of Ukraine after seizing the Luhansk province last week. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden approved a new weapons package worth $400 million for Ukraine which includes advanced rocket systems and ammunition.

Russia destroying Ukraine grain crops. Aiming to induce a global food crisis, Russian forces in Ukraine are systematically destroying grain crops, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko said via Twitter.

47 million is the number of people who have been pushed into acute food insecurity since March as a result of increasing costs of food and fuel, according to the World Food Program.

In a Washington Post op-ed, President Biden defends upcoming Saudi trip as national security necessity.

Chinese region of Macau has closed its casinos on Monday for the first time in two years because of a rise in Covid-19 infections caused by the Omicron variant.

Ag markets are rising again, with traders saying they are adding a weather premium for U.S. and European weather concerns. Extreme heat is forecast for Europe.

Cost of a first-class stamp rose to 60 cents July 10 while other mail prices rose as inflation comes to the post office. Details below.

Deere CEO John May is one of Barron’s best CEOs. The publication gives a brief outlook of what’s ahead from the farm equipment company.

Freight rates are starting to fall as shipping demand wavers and the U.S. economy slows.

California, Connecticut, Illinois and New York have directed surplus funds to social programs and taxpayer rebates, among other causes, leaving unpaid debts to the federal government.

U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh remained optimistic about contract negotiations between workers and shipping companies for some of the country’s most important ports, even as talks extend past a previous deadline.

Negotiations between CNH Industrial and striking workers have hit a stalemate.

California regulators forcing many growers to stop diverting water from the Sacramento River.

On the trade policy front, President Biden said no decision yet on rolling back China import tariffs.

FY 2023 WTO raw cane sugar TRQ established; FY 2022 TRQ increased, and entry period extended.

EV tipping point reached. The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical threshold: 5% of new car sales are electric.

Iowa Supreme court reinstates pork producers’ right to farm.

Starbucks quietly yanked new chicken sandwich after it gave customers diarrhea.

Recently testing positive for Covid-19: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (R-N.Y.) and USTR Katherine Tai.

Republicans will add a member to their ranks tomorrow with the swearing in of Rep.-elect Mike Flood (R-Neb.).

Elon Musk late last week finally followed through on his threat to pull out of his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter. The social media company promptly responded by saying it planned to sue.

Steve Bannon agrees to testify to the Jan. 6 Committee. Bannon, the former Trump campaign manager and White House adviser, who faces a criminal trial for contempt of Congress, made the abrupt about-face after the former president authorized him to talk to investigators.

Shinzo Abe’s party swept to victory in a Japanese parliamentary election. Yesterday’s results, which came two days after Abe, the former prime minister, was assassinated, meant that his Liberal Democratic Party and their coalition partners had enough seats to form a two-thirds supermajority. It’s likely that the new leaders will pursue Abe’s long-held ambition of revising Japan’s pacifist Constitution.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings. Earnings season is set to roll out Tuesday, with a report from PepsiCo. Delta Air Lines posts quarterly results on Wednesday. The banking sector comes next, with JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, and Wells Fargo, Citigroup and PNC Financial, among others, follow on Friday. In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong -2.8%. China -1.3%. India -0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.8%.

U.S. equities Friday: While the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all registered gains in the holiday-shortened week, all but the Nasdaq finished with losses after the strong jobs update. The Dow was down 46.40 points, 0.15%, at 31,338.15. The Nasdaq rose 13.96 points, 0.12%, at 11,635.31. The S&P 500 eased 3.24 points, 0.08%, at 3,899.38.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.8%, the Nasdaq gained 4.6% and the S&P 500 was up 1.9%.

Agriculture markets Friday:

• Corn: December corn surged 27 1/4 cents to $6.23 1/2, up 16 cents for the week.
• Soy complex: November soybeans jumped 31 cents to $13.96 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents for the week. August soymeal rose $7.80 to $431.30 and August soyoil rose 97 points to 62.59 cents.
• Wheat: September SRW wheat rose 55 cents to $8.91 1/2, up 45 1/2 cents for the week. September HRW wheat rose 56 1/2 cents to $9.45 3/4, up 32 1/4 cents for the week. September spring wheat surged 57 1/4 cents to $9.91 3/4, up 45 3/4 cents for the week.
• Cotton: December cotton jumped 375 points to 95.63 cents per pound, still down 185 points for the week.
• Cattle: August live cattle fell 60 cents to $133.95, down 65 cents for the week. August feeders fell 75 cents to $171.725, down $1.875 for the week.
• Hogs: April lean hogs August lean hogs fell 32.5 cents to $109.175, still up $6.20 for the week. Hog futures posted a strong week as bullish technicals and easing concern over pork demand outweighed cash slippage. Wholesale pork strength this week suggested solid demand as retailers stocked up for mid-summer featuring at the meat counter. Pork cutout values rose $2.02 to $114.21.
  

Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and wheat futures gapped sharply higher at the start of overnight trade. While prices remain sharply higher, futures were trading under their opening levels and low range this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 16 to 18 cents higher, soybeans were 18 to 20 cents higher, SRW wheat was 9 to 10 cents higher, HRW wheat was 14 to 15 cents higher and spring wheat was 20 to 23 cents higher. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around $2.25 lower and the U.S. dollar index was more than 700 points higher this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey appears before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at 10:15 a.m. ET.
• USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET.
• New York Fed President John Williams speaks about the financial industry’s transition away from Libor at 2 p.m. ET.
• USDA Crop Progress report, 4 p.m. ET.
• President Joe Biden will meet Tuesday with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He will then travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Inflation watch: stamps. Cost of a first-class stamp rose to 60 cents July 10 while other mail prices rose as inflation comes to the post office.

A first-class stamp covers the price of a 1-ounce letter. An additional ounce costs 20 cents, and that will rise to 24 cents. Other postal products will see increases as well:

• Metered letters will rise to 57 cents from 53 cents
• Domestic postcards will rise to 44 cents from 40 cents
• Outbound international letters will rise to $1.40 from $1.30
  

Forever stamps previously cost 58 cents, and their price rose to 60 cents in July as well. But the “Forever” in their name means that even after the price rise, a single Forever stamp you paid 58 cents for will still send a 1-ounce letter to any U.S. address. You won’t have to add additional postage to make up for the price increase. You can still use an original Forever stamp purchased 15 years ago for 41 cents to mail a first-class letter today without additional postage. Forever stamps, introduced in 2007, are always equivalent to the current price of a first-class stamp. Since 2011, virtually all first-class stamps sold are Forever stamps.

Deere CEO John May one of Barron’s best CEOs. Here is what its rundown said about Deere and its CEO:

“Artificial intelligence is making its way to corn, soybean, and cotton fields. Deere’s new sprayers have specialized cameras that can recognize even tiny weeds, and automatically apply herbicide only where needed. That can cut usage of the stuff by 90% — a strong selling point amid soaring inflation. Uptake has been strong.

“Everybody in the industry was focused on building the best product, like the best tractor, the best planter, or the best combine,” says John May, Deere’s tenth CEO in its 185-year history. “We made a big shift and said, no, we want to help our customers do the jobs they do better.”

“May, 53, reorganized the company around particular crops, and centralized its software, data, and analytics under a new technology chief. Today, subscription services can help farmers maximize profits per acre, and machines alert owners to failures before they happen. Tractors coming later this year will drive themselves. Within four years, they’ll run on battery power.

“By the end of the decade, May aims to fully automate corn and soybean production—and increase subscriptions from less than 1% of revenue to 10%. That could help smooth out profits and keep returns bountiful.”

Freight rates are starting to fall as shipping demand wavers and the U.S. economy slows. The reduction in transportation costs is good news for manufacturers and retailers after two years of rapidly rising expenses. The Wall Street Journal reports (link) it also suggests the contribution of the freight sector to inflation is at least leveling off, though shippers note they are still paying several times more than they did before the Covid-19 pandemic snarled supply chains world-wide. Meanwhile, the Global Port Tracker projects containerized imports into the U.S. will turn negative on an annual basis next month.

At least four Democratic-led states with budget surpluses this year have chosen not to fully repay the federal government for money borrowed to fund unemployment benefits, a move that will impose increased charges on businesses to help make up the difference. California, Connecticut, Illinois and New York have directed surplus funds to social programs and taxpayer rebates, among other causes, leaving unpaid debts to the federal government ranging from tens of millions of dollars to more than $15 billion. If the debts aren’t fully repaid by Nov. 10, as officials in the four states envision, the federal government will start charging $21 per employee annually on all businesses in the states next year. In addition, state taxes on businesses to fund their unemployment programs will go up by varying amounts.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is solidly up early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.062%. The 2-year Treasury note is yielding 3.097%, meaning the yield curve is inverted and is suggesting impending U.S. economic recession. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $102.70 a barrel. Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,733.70 an ounce

• Labor Secretary upbeat on port talks. U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh remained optimistic about contract negotiations between workers and shipping companies for some of the country’s most important ports, even as talks extend past a previous deadline. He added that talks often move past their deadline, while declining to comment on the department’s preparation for any potential strike.

• Negotiations between CNH Industrial and striking workers have hit a stalemate, deepening supply-chain problems with farm and construction equipment.

• California regulators forcing many growers to stop diverting water from the Sacramento River. California regulators have begun curtailing the water rights of many farms and irrigation districts along the Sacramento River, forcing growers to stop diverting water from the river and its tributaries. The order, which took effect Thursday, puts a hold on about 5,800 water rights across the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers’ watersheds, reflecting the severity of California’s extreme drought. Farms and cities across California have already been grappling with cuts in supplies from two large water-delivery systems, the State Water Project and the Central Valley Project. The drought has taken a toll on California’s agriculture industry. Researchers at UC Merced estimated that reduced water deliveries last year resulted in 395,000 acres of cropland left dry and unplanted. And growers have been leaving more land fallow this year in the Central Valley. Karen Ross, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said initial projections point to more than 800,000 acres of farmland probably being left dry this year, including about 250,000 acres in the Sacramento Valley, which previously had largely been spared cutbacks. “It’s a tremendous impact to the farms and to whole communities,” Ross said. She said farms have effectively reduced water use over the last two decades while also increasing productivity. Over the last 10 years, the amount of irrigated farmland has also gotten smaller, Ross said, and in the future, “we’re going to be farming a smaller footprint.” Link for details via the Los Angeles Times.

• Ag trade update: The Philippines purchased up to 60,000 MT of feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia and up to 60,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from South America. Taiwan tendered to buy 44,725 MT of U.S. milling wheat.

• NWS weather: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast and the Central/Southern Rockies through Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday and parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday... ...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Strong price gains to start the week
• Drier trend this week, heat returns late week
• Russia destroying Ukraine grain crops (see Russia/Ukraine section)
• Wholesale beef likely to weaken
• Cash hogs expected to firm

— Summary: Russia continues to aggressively move to take the entire Donbas region of Ukraine after seizing the Luhansk province last week. Over the weekend, it bombarded the five main towns and cities in neighboring Donetsk, the other province in the region. Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia already occupies about 30% of the Kharkiv region in the northeast.

• President Joe Biden approved a new weapons package worth $400 million for Ukraine which includes advanced rocket systems and ammunition. On Friday Ukraine repeated calls for more weapons from the West as Russian forces continued their advance through the Donbas region. Earlier a regional official warned that the city of Severodonetsk is facing a “humanitarian disaster” almost two weeks after being captured by Russian forces.
• Canada waives Russia sanctions to ease Germany’s gas shortage. Canada is going to allow the export of vital equipment for the main Russian gas pipeline to Germany, clearing a potential obstacle to the resumption of increased gas deliveries to Europe. Ottawa late on Saturday granted an exemption to its sanctions on Moscow, bringing potential relief in Berlin, which fears it could be forced to ration supplies. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline supplies Germany with much of its Russian gas. Canada had blocked the delivery of a gas turbine used in the pipeline, which was being repaired by German manufacturer Siemens Energy at its plant in Montreal, because of its sanctions on the Russian energy sector. Moscow blamed this delay for its decision last month to cut the flow of gas through the pipeline by 60%, sending gas prices soaring.
  

— Market impacts:

• Russia is open to talks with Ukraine, Turkey on grain exports. Comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov came as his Ukrainian counterpart said a Russian naval blockade on Ukraine has “shredded global chains of food supply.”
• President Biden is seeking a global price cap on Russian oil. Negotiating and selling the plan is a crucial task facing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as she travels to Asia. But others think if Russia feels really backed into a corner, Putin will take Russian oil off the global market. A New York Times account says, “Analysts have calculated that such a depletion in supply could send oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel or more, translating to Americans paying $7 a gallon for gasoline. Global growth could slam into reverse as consumers and businesses pull back spending in response to higher fuel prices and as central banks, which are already raising interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, are forced to make borrowing costs even more expensive.” Link for more via the New York Times.
• Russia’s former McDonald’s restaurants, now rebranded under new local ownership, are taking fries off the menu in some locations due to a potato shortage. Similar supply snags have already ensnarled fast-food chains in Japan and Kenya. The potato variety needed to make the fries had a poor harvest in 2021, the company explained to TASS news agency, while sanctions made foreign imports unfeasible. The chain plans to have everything back to normal by the fall.
• Russia destroying Ukraine grain crops. Aiming to induce a global food crisis, Russian forces in Ukraine are systematically destroying grain crops, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko said via Twitter. Nikolenko posted a photo of a fire consuming a grain field in southeastern Ukraine. “Russia’s troops set fire to grain fields in Ukraine’s fertile Zaporizhzhya region,” said Nikolenko. “Remember this picture every time Russians say they care about global food security. Millions of people across the world will face hunger – because Russia launched a brutal war against Ukraine.” Other pictures and video on social media corroborated Nikolenko’s claim of Russian troops destroying Ukraine grain fields.
• The Ukraine war is pushing millions of the world’s poorest toward starvation. The World Food Program says that increases in the cost of food and fuel since March have pushed an additional 47 million people into acute food insecurity, when a person is no longer able to consume enough calories to sustain her life and livelihood, taking the total to 345 million people world-wide. Of those, some 50 million are living on the edge of famine. In Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Yemen and Afghanistan, nearly 900,000 people already face starvation and death. That is a more than tenfold increase from 2019 — and, by some estimates, could result in more people dying from hunger in 2022 and 2023 than in any years since the 1960s and China’s disastrous Great Leap Forward agricultural policies, the WSJ notes (link).

— Treasury nominee topic of hearing. The Senate Finance Committee meets for a hearing Tuesday on the nominations of Jay Curtis Shambaugh to be undersecretary of the Treasury Department.

— U.S. presses China re: Russia. At a meeting in Indonesia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the top U.S. diplomat, pressed Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, to further isolate Russia. Wang responded sharply, noting a “growing ‘China phobia’” in the United States.

— Chinese region of Macau has closed its casinos on Monday for the first time in two years because of a rise in Covid-19 infections caused by the Omicron variant. Casino taxes, already dented by pandemic-related disruption to tourism, account for more than 80% of the local government’s revenue. Eleven Chinese cities, home to 115 million people, are currently subject to lockdown restrictions.

— Biden/Xi call likely to take place in coming weeks: Blinken. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for more than five hours to help lay the groundwork for a call between the leaders. Some trade observers doubt that Biden will announce any action on tariffs on China before his conversation with Xi.

— Chinese producer prices ease, consumer prices rise. China’s producer price inflation eased to a 15-month low of 6.1% above year-ago in June from 6.4% in the prior month. This marked 18th straight month of slowing producer prices, amid measures to contain Covid-19 infections and fears about global recession that triggered a selloff in ferrous metals. China’s annual consumer inflation rate climbed 2.5% in June from 2.1% in the prior month. This was the highest consumer inflation since July 2020, with food prices rising the most in 21 months.

— China’s June new bank loans rise more than expected. Chinese banks extended 2.81 trillion yuan ($419.3 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up from May and beating analysts’ expectations, as the country’s central bank sought to spur credit growth. Outstanding yuan loans were up 11.2% from a year earlier at the end of June compared with 11.0% growth the previous month. Broad M2 money supply grew 11.4% from a year earlier, up from an 11.1% rise in May.

— Biden: No decision made on rolling back China import tariffs. Biden said Friday he hasn’t decided whether to roll back any of the tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by his predecessor. Commerce Secretary Raimondo on Sunday said she expects a decision shortly. “Lifting tariffs isn’t going to bring down top-line inflation in a very significant way,” she said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “What it will do potentially is help consumers on certain, as you say, household goods. And so for that reason, given where inflation is, I think it could make sense to do it.” “No, we are having further discussions on that,” Biden said Sunday when asked if there was a decision. Biden’s decision is expected by many this month, although the exact timing is far from clear. “We are briefing him and I expect he’ll make a decision shortly,” Raimondo said.

— FY 2023 WTO raw cane sugar TRQ established; FY 2022 TRQ increased, and entry period extended. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) announced the fiscal year (FY) 2023 in-quota aggregate quantity of raw cane sugar at 1,117,195 metric tons raw value (MTRV) via a notice in the Federal Register (link). The agency also announced an increase in the FY 2022 raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of 90,718 MTRV and an extension of the TRQ entry period. With this increase, the overall FY 2022 raw sugar TRQ is now 1,207,913 MTRV. FAS also announced that all sugar entering the U.S. under the FY 2022 raw sugar TRQ will be able to enter the U.S. through Oct. 31, a month later than the usual final entry date. “These actions are being taken after a determination that additional supplies of raw cane sugar are required in the U.S. market,” FAS said in a separate notice (link).

— EV tipping point reached. The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical threshold: 5% of new car sales are electric. Bloomberg notes that if the U.S. stays the course established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales may be electric by the end of 2025. President Biden has issued an executive order calling for EVs to make up half of new cars by 2030. And Volkswagen, Ford, and BMW are targeting 50% or more of their global sales to be fully electric by the end of this decade.

— Iowa Supreme court reinstates pork producers’ right to farm. In a big victory for Hawkeye pork producers, the Iowa Supreme Court in a 4-3 decision said the state may provide livestock producers immunity from nuisance lawsuits such as ones complaining about odor. The court reversed a precedent that had struck down an Iowa law granting immunity to livestock farmers and allowed neighboring landowners to sue for damages when farm operations affected their “quality of life.” Under a ruling in a case brought by activists against New Fashion Pork, landowners still may sue if their property is “damaged” because of a farmer’s failure to comply with a federal or state law or regulation or to use prudent and generally accepted management practices. In the majority opinion, Judge Thomas Waterman wrote that “protecting and promoting livestock production is a legitimate state interest, and granting partial immunity from nuisance suits is a proper means to that end.” (Source: NPPC)

— Starbucks quietly yanked new chicken sandwich after it gave customers diarrhea. Starbucks introduced a new chicken sandwich as part of its revamped summer menu last month — but quietly yanked it less than a week later after customers and employees alike said it made them seriously ill, the New York Post has learned. Link for details.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 555,466,200 with 6,351,252 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 88,594,118 with 1,020,862 deaths.

— U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai tested positive for Covid on Saturday. “I’m fully vaccinated and boosted, isolating at home and following the advice of my doctor,” she said in a tweet. “I urge all Americans to get vaccinated and a booster if you are eligible.” In a statement, USTR spokesperson Adam Hodge said Tai “has not had recent close contact with the President or Vice President.”

— Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced Sunday night he tested positive for Covid. Schumer’s office said he was only experiencing “very mild symptoms” and will quarantine for the week.

— Japan elections: The Liberal Democrats and their partners gained enough seats yesterday to form a two-thirds supermajority in Japan’s Parliament, two days after the party’s former leader, Shinzo Abe, was assassinated. Rhe conservative bloc also has a two-thirds majority in the lower house. The mandate means higher odds for Abe’s long-held ambition of revising a clause that renounces war in the country’s pacifist Constitution.

— The New York Times has released its first poll of the 2022 midterm cycle. The poll included a question about whether people would vote for Biden or Trump in 2024 if the two ended up being the nominees again. The question did not present any options other than Biden and Trump — yet 10% of respondents volunteered that they did not plan to support either one. The share was even higher among voters under 35 and lower among older voters. Yet, when all voters were asked to choose between Biden and Trump in a hypothetical matchup, Biden nonetheless held a small lead over Trump, 44% to 41%.

— President Joe Biden said Sunday he has asked his staff to see if he “has the authority” to declare a public health emergency to address abortion access, a move that could release additional funding and give federal health officials more power to respond to state-level abortion restrictions.

— Republicans will add a member to their ranks tomorrow with the swearing in of Rep.-elect Mike Flood (R-Neb.), growing their conference to 211 members compared to Democrats’ 220-strong majority. Flood won a special election June 28 to replace former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.), who resigned March 31 after he was convicted of federal campaign-finance charges.

— Elon Musk moves to terminate $44 billion deal to buy Twitter. The billionaire entrepreneur, in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, said Twitter was in breach of contract and had made false and misleading statements regarding spam bot accounts on its platform. In response, Twitter’s chairman Bret Taylor said the social-media giant is prepared to take Musk to court. Meanwhile, Twitter shares sunk 7.8% in premarket trading after Elon Musk terminates $44 billion deal.

— Biden defends upcoming Saudi trip as national security necessity. President Joe Biden defended his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia in an op-ed in the Washington Post (link) and pledged to give attention to human rights on his visit with the crown prince, a meeting that has been widely criticized by opponents of Mohammed Bin Salman’s policies. “I know that there are many who disagree with my decision to travel to Saudi Arabia. My views on human rights are clear and long-standing,” the president wrote in the opinion piece published Sunday. He is slated to travel to both Israel and Saudi Arabia this coming week. “As president, it is my job to keep our country strong and secure. We have to counter Russia’s aggression, put ourselves in the best possible position to outcompete China, and work for greater stability in a consequential region of the world,” he said. “To do these things, we have to engage directly with countries that can impact those outcomes.”