U.S. Economic Indicator Flashes Red; LEI Drops Further

Cold snap in Europe | EPA and eRINs | Busy holiday travel | Existing home sales plummet

Farm Journal
Farm Journal
(Farm Journal)

Cold snap in Europe | EPA and eRINs | Busy holiday travel | Existing home sales plummet



Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

  • Existing home sales fall to fresh 2010-lows
  • Positive economic indicators mask lingering warning signal via LEI
  • Nvidia will report results after the close today
  • Rich are getting richer, but the poor aren’t getting poorer
  • FOMC minutes to be released today
  • Argentina’s new president proposes dollarization to tackle inflation
  • Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index recovers to year-end 2022 levels after earlier decline
  • Gas prices expected to be most affordable they’ve been for Thanksgiving since 2020
  • U.S. natural gas futures near 2.5-month low
  • Iron ore prices have surged to an eight-month high
  • Ag markets today
  • Wheat futures in U.S. below $5.45 per bushel in November, nearing a three-year low
  • RSPO working on new system to trace palm oil sustainability
  • NWS weather outlook
  • Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

  • Hamas leader: Close to truce deal with Israel, backed by White House
  • China calls for ‘early ceasefire’ in Gaza conflict in meeting with Arab-Islamic ministers

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

  • Zelenskyy: ‘I’ve lost track of all the times Putin has tried to assassinate me’
  • Russia has reduced its seaborne crude oil exports to lowest level since August

POLICY

  • Slight rise in ERP payments

CHINA

  • China’s MMG Ltd. Secures one of most significant copper deals of year
  • China plans to boost biodiesel production
  • China imported significant amounts of Brazilian soybeans in October
  • China warns Argentina severing ties would be ‘serious mistake’
  • Politico: How the U.S. violates its own trade laws to buy seafood from China

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Illinois Governor Pritzker seeks billions for Illinois tech hub and clean energy
  • Unexpected metal price drop impacts U.S. EV transition
  • Uncertainty surrounds Biden EPA’s rule on renewable fuel credits for EVs.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

  • Carlyle Group to sell stake in Chinese operations of McDonald’s back to fast-food giant

HEALTH UPDATE

  • Health experts encourage safe holiday gatherings amid seasonal viruses

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

  • Age-old humor. Late-night comedians on President Biden’s 81st birthday on Monday

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. Dow opened lower and is now about 100 points lower. The Sevens Report says, “Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.91 million) and if it comes in strong, that could weigh on Treasuries (yields higher) and in turn pour some cold water on stocks.” (We detail the report’s findings below which came in under expectations.) In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong -0.3%. China flat. India +0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt +0.2%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices ended with gains to open the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 had its strongest close since August and the Nasdaq 100 hit a 22-month high yesterday. The Dow rose 203.76 points, 0.58%, at 35,153.04. The Nasdaq was up 159.05 points, 1.13%, at 14,284.53. The S&P 500 gained 33.36 points, 0.74%, at 4,547.38.

— Although earnings season is effectively over, there is one notable release today as Nvidia, one of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher in 2023, will report results after the close. Nvidia is expected to report another blockbuster earnings report after the bell. Nvidia is expected to report a nearly 173% jump in revenue for the third quarter, according to analysts polled by LSEG, and Wall Street estimates it will forecast a more than 195% rise in revenue for the current quarter. Its stock, which is up 240% this year (nearly 24% this month), was up modestly ahead of Tuesday’s open. Investors will also want to hear what Nvidia executives think of the fallout surrounding OpenAI following its ouster of Sam Altman. A majority of its workers called on its board to resign after ousting Altman as CEI over how fast to commercialize its technology.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

  • Corn: December corn rose 2 1/2 cents to $4.69 1/2, nearer the session high, while March corn rose 2 1/4 to $4.87 1/2.
  • Soy complex: January soybeans jumped 27 cents to $13.67 1/4, leading the soy complex higher. December soymeal rallied $6.90 and ended the day at $460.20. December soyoil closed 110 points higher at 53.11 cents.
  • Wheat: March SRW wheat fell 5 1/4 cents at $5.70 1/2 and nearer the session low. Prices hit a contract low today. March HRW wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents at $6.20 1/4. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a 27-month low. Spring wheat futures fell 8 1/4 cents before settling at $7.07 1/4.
  • Cotton: March cotton fell 26 points to 81.25 cents but ended nearer the session high after trading as low as 79.70 cents.
  • Cattle: February live cattle fell 15 cents to $176.65 and nearer the session low. January feeder cattle rose $1.35 to $229.85 and near mid-range.
  • Hogs: December lean hog futures fell 62.50 cents before ending the day at $70.35.

— Ag markets today: Soybeans continued Monday’s rally overnight, corn is pressing into the upper end of the recent sideways range and wheat saw corrective buying off yesterday’s for-the-move low. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were around 3 cents higher, soybeans were 8 to 10 cents higher and wheat futures were 2 to 4 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index was trading around 100 points lower on 11-week lows.

Cash cattle average drops. Last week’s average fell $2.09 to $177.82 from $179.91 the prior week, the lowest since mid-May. Recent weakness is likely to continue, though the tightness of quality market ready cattle supplies remains limited, likely limiting the downside.

Cash hog fundamentals weaken. The CME lean hog index is down another 57 cents to $74.52 (as of Nov. 17), marking a new low in the seasonal decline. Wholesale pork prices slipped despite recent strength, falling $2.07 to $86.09.

— Quotes of note:

  • $29.14 billion: Total currency impacts reported by North American and European companies during the second quarter of 2023, a roughly 25% increase from the previous quarter, according to Kyriba, a provider of treasury services. Link for more.
  • Zelenskyy: ‘I’ve lost track of all the times Putin has tried to assassinate me. ‘Battle-hardened Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shrugged off repeated Russian attempts to assassinate him as no worse than a bout of Covid.
  • “People say, ‘Economists don’t know why we’re unhappy? Just look at the prices!’ We’re looking at the prices, and we’re wondering, why are you buying so much stuff?” — Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan who worked in the Obama administration, on the disconnect between Americans’ perception of the economy and their actual experiences.
  • U.S. stock equity downers. Goldman Sachs strategists said there is a risk of “disappointment in the near term” amid lingering concerns about economic growth and inflation, while Citigroup warned of the possibility of a short squeeze that could derail the rally.
  • Rich are getting richer, but the poor aren’t getting poorer. Recent research conducted by Gerald Auten from the U.S. Treasury and David Splinter from the Joint Committee on Taxation challenges the common narrative of increasing income inequality. While there’s a prevalent belief that incomes for the top 1% are surging while those for the bottom half remain stagnant, the research highlights a significant factor that tempers this inequality: Social Security benefits and other government transfers. These government programs play a role in addressing income disparities and contribute to a more balanced distribution of income. “Instead of real per capita incomes of the bottom half of the distribution appearing unchanged since 1979, we find that after taxes and transfers they increased by two-thirds,” they write (link).

— Positive economic indicators mask lingering warning signal. Despite many positive economic indicators such as businesses hiring, increased consumer spending, and output growth, there is one persistent warning signal that economists are closely monitoring. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for October recorded a 0.8% decline from the previous month, marking its 19th consecutive drop. The LEI combines various indicators, including jobless claims, building permits, and interest-rate spreads, to identify potential shifts in the economy.

The Conference Board, the organization responsible for creating the LEI, is concerned about the situation. They anticipate that elevated inflation, high interest rates, and a decline in consumer spending due to reduced pandemic-related savings and mandatory student loan repayments could lead to a brief recession in the United States.

— U.S. existing home sales lowest since August 2010. In October 2023, the U.S. saw a 4.1% month-over-month decline in sales of previously owned homes, resulting in a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.79 million units. This figure represents the lowest level since August 2010 and falls below the expected rate of 3.9 million. The housing market continues to face challenges due to a persistent lack of inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation.

However, there are still instances of multiple offers, particularly for starter and mid-priced homes, even though some price concessions are taking place in the upper end of the market, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Total housing inventory at the end of October increased by 1.8% compared to September but remained 5.7% lower than the same period the previous year.

The median price for existing homes of all types in October was $391,800, marking a 3.4% increase compared to October 2022. Sales declined in the Northeast, South, and West regions but remained unchanged in the Midwest.

— Today, the minutes from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released. These minutes will be closely scrutinized for signals regarding the Fed’s stance on future policy decisions. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have consistently stated that the possibility of another rate increase remains on the table if inflation data does not show progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. However, market sentiment appears to discount this Fed caution, with many believing that the Fed has already reached the peak of interest rates.

The minutes may shed more light on the discussions within the Fed about the appropriate level of interest rates. Powell previously indicated that there was uncertainty among Fed officials regarding whether they had done enough to address inflation and whether rates were genuinely at a restrictive level.

Additionally, the minutes will provide insights into how long Fed officials anticipate keeping rates high. While a definitive answer may not emerge, the minutes will set the stage for the Fed’s upcoming meeting on Dec. 13-14, where updated forecasts for the economy and monetary policy will be issued. These forecasts will offer initial indications of how long officials believe rates will need to be maintained at their current levels if there are no changes made at that meeting.

— Argentina’s new president proposes dollarization to tackle inflation. Argentina’s newly elected president, Javier Milei, who identifies as an anarcho-capitalist, is proposing a significant change for the country’s economic policy. His plan, aimed at combatting rampant inflation, involves replacing the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar as the national currency. This proposal is driven by the desire to address the long-standing issue of inflation, which has severely affected Latin America’s third-largest economy over the years. By adopting the U.S. dollar as the national currency, Milei intends to remove the Argentine peso from circulation and diminish the central bank’s authority to print money. This move is seen as a radical shift in economic policy and has raised questions and challenges about the feasibility and consequences of such a “dollarization plan.” A Wall Street Journal article (link) looks at challenges facing the dollarization plan.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index declined, with the euro and British pound stronger against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell, trading around 4.41%, with a negative tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures are lower, with U.S. crude at around $77.35 per barrel and Brent at around $81.85 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were up, with gold around $1,990 per troy ounce and silver around $23.66 per troy ounce.

— Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index recovers to year-end 2022 levels after earlier decline. The index, which monitors the $26 trillion U.S. Treasury market, has rebounded to approximately its year-end 2022 levels. Earlier in the year, it had experienced a decline of up to 3.3%. This recovery is attributed to several factors, including the easing of inflationary pressures and indications that the labor market may be showing signs of weakness. As a result, traders are increasingly speculating that the Federal Reserve has concluded its cycle of raising interest rates.

— Gas prices are expected to be the most affordable they’ve been for Thanksgiving since 2020, mainly due to a prolonged decline in gas prices over the past two months. As of Monday, the average price per gallon stood at $3.31, marking a 25-cent decrease from the previous month. Notably, in 11 Southern and Midwestern states, gas prices are below $3 per gallon, according to AAA. However, this downward trend in gas prices may not be sustained for long. There is a possibility that OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) could reduce production at its upcoming meeting next week. Such a move could lead to an increase in crude oil prices, which, in turn, may exert upward pressure on gas prices.

— U.S. natural gas futures near 2.5-month low. U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at around $2.9/MMBtu, marking one of the lowest levels in the past 2.5 months. Several factors contribute to this situation, including ample storage levels, record-high production, and decreased demand. Typically, gas withdrawals from storage commence in mid-November to cater to heating requirements. However, as of the week ending Nov. 10, U.S. gas stockpiles were already approximately 6% above the normal levels, and this is projected to increase to 7% above normal by Nov. 17. The Energy Information Administration attributes this surplus in inventories to robust natural gas production and milder-than-average winter weather conditions, resulting in reduced demand for heating. Weather forecasts indicate a 4% reduction in heating degree days compared to the preceding 10-year average, translating to a 2% decrease in space heating consumption compared to the five-year average. Additionally, with the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, there is an anticipated slowdown in traditional demand. In November, the average daily gas output has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), surpassing the previous record of 104.2 bcfd in October, further contributing to the ample supply of natural gas.

— Iron ore prices have surged to an eight-month high, surpassing $134 per tonne for deliveries to Tianjin in November. This increase is driven by a combination of robust demand expectations and supply-related risks. In China, the world’s leading consumer of iron ore, purchasing activity remains strong, particularly in the steel-heavy infrastructure sector. Beijing has announced its intention to issue bonds and allocate an additional CNY 1 trillion in debt to support infrastructure and manufacturing projects, further supporting the demand for iron ore. Analysts say these developments reinforce previous indications from lenders, miners, and metallurgists that China’s infrastructure spending is poised to offset challenges in the residential construction sector, ensuring a continued active demand for iron ore. Some note the situation could be impacted by industrial action taken by giant miner BHP, which may lead to the suspension of operations for approximately 400 train drivers in Australia, potentially affecting iron ore exports from the country.

— Wheat futures in the U.S. have dropped to below $5.45 per bushel in November, nearing a three-year low. This decline is attributed to several factors. USDA raised its global supply outlook for the current marketing year due to significant increases in beginning stocks among major global market players, as indicated in the latest WASDE report. Additionally, USDA raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat production to 90 million tonnes, only 2 million tonnes away from last year’s record high, leading to record-high exports of 50 million tonnes from Russia, the largest in the world. Also, unexpected rainfall in Argentina following the report release has boosted production forecasts from key grain producers in the country, contributing to the global supply of wheat. The report noted slightly reduced consumption from key importers in the Middle East and South East Asia, putting additional downward pressure on wheat prices.

— RSPO working on new system to trace palm oil sustainability. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) is actively developing a new system designed to trace the origin and assess the environmental and sustainability aspects of palm oil. They intend to launch this new system in the fourth quarter of 2024. RSPO CEO Joseph D’Cruz emphasized the need to revamp their existing standards and certification framework to meet the demands of contemporary markets, regulators, and consumers for proof of sustainability. This initiative is seen as a response to evolving regulations, particularly those established by the European Union (EU). The EU has implemented an anti-deforestation plan requiring companies to provide detailed information about the production of their commodities, including when and where they were produced. This information must be verifiable and confirm that the commodities were not grown on deforested land after 2020. The EU regulation is set to take effect in late 2024. RSPO’s new tracing system aims to assist its members in demonstrating compliance with these regulations and enhancing transparency in the palm oil industry.

NWS weather outlook: Active weather expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travels for much of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River but should exit the East Coast just in time for Thanksgiving... ...Severe weather threat will progress from west to east across the central Gulf Gulf states into the Southeast... ...Heavy rain expected to move through the interior Mid-Atlantic tonight with some snow and freezing rain over interior New England into Wednesday... ...Snow is forecast to develop over the northern Rockies to northern High Plains to begin Thanksgiving holiday.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Soybeans continue to lead higher; corn and wheat follow suit
• Cordonnier keeps South American crop estimates unchanged but has lower bias
• HRW CCI declines, SRW rating improves
• Crop progress report highlights

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Hamas leader: Close to truce deal with Israel, backed by White House. A Hamas leader said the militant group is “close to reaching a truce agreement” with Israel, which aligns with similar statements made by the White House. The National Security Council spokesperson, John Kirby, mentioned on Monday that negotiators are making progress toward the release of hostages held by Hamas but did not provide further details about the potential deal. Approximately 239 hostages are believed to be held in Gaza, taken during Hamas’ attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, resulting in around 1,200 casualties, as reported by the Israeli military.

Additionally, there is a positive development in Gaza, where 28 premature babies have been transported to Egypt as part of Palestinian authorities’ efforts to transfer injured patients through the Rafah crossing for life-saving treatment.

— China calls for ‘early ceasefire’ in Gaza conflict in meeting with Arab-Islamic ministers. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with a delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers in Beijing on Monday, stating that China stands ready to work with them toward an early ceasefire in Gaza and a “comprehensive, just and enduring settlement” of the Palestinian issue, the foreign ministry said. Leader Xi Jinping has unleashed a gust of diplomacy around Gaza despite limited direct involvement in the region.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Russia has reduced its seaborne crude oil exports to the lowest level since August ahead of a crucial meeting of OPEC+ oil ministers. During this meeting, there will be a strong emphasis on assessing compliance with production cuts. This decision to cut back exports follows a rise in shipments during the previous month of October.

POLICY UPDATE

— Slight rise in ERP payments. As of Nov. 19, total payments made under the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) have seen a slight increase, reaching $8.24 billion. Phase 1 payments remained unchanged at $7.45 billion. In contrast, Phase 2 payouts have risen to $794.08 million, benefiting 10,091 recipients, compared to the previous week’s total of $788.02 million, distributed among 10,046 recipients. There is currently no available payment information for Track 1 of the ERP related to losses in the year 2022.

CHINA UPDATE

— China’s MMG Ltd. has secured one of the most significant copper deals of the year by agreeing to acquire a mine in southern Africa for $1.9 billion. This acquisition reflects the ongoing competition among major commodities groups to secure a supply of copper, a vital industrial metal.

— China plans to boost biodiesel production. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has outlined plans for a series of demonstration or pilot projects aimed at boosting domestic biodiesel production. The biodiesel is expected to be primarily derived from sources such as palm oil and used cooking oil (UCO). The NEA has also called on regional governments to provide financial support for these initiatives.

The document issued by the NEA emphasizes the expansion of domestic biodiesel applications and envisions a pathway that can serve as a model for renewable or green fuels. Additionally, the plan involves integrating UCO feedstock supply chains and fuel distribution and promoting biodiesel within a voluntary national certified emissions reduction mechanism.

Of note: China currently exports substantial quantities of UCO to the United States and the European Union (EU). While the NEA’s effort could potentially limit these exports in the future, the plan does not provide details about financing or an implementation timeline. Given that this initiative is starting at the pilot program level, it may take some time before it translates into a significant increase in biodiesel demand. Moreover, consumption targets would need to be established, as current indications suggest that China only utilizes approximately 40% of the 1.9 billion liters of biodiesel it produces.

— China imported significant amounts of Brazilian soybeans in October. Chinese imports of soybeans from Brazil were up 71% to 4.81 MMT from the prior October. The U.S. share of Chinese imports shrank to 228,264 MT from 772,787 a year ago. Bulk commodity imports significantly rose year-on-year in corn, barley, sugar and soybeans, though fell sharply in wheat and pork.

— China warns Argentina severing ties would be ‘serious mistake’. China said on Tuesday it would be a “serious mistake” if Argentina were to cut ties, after the weekend presidential election victory in the South American country of a right-wing libertarian who has said he will not deal with communists. Link to more via Reuters.

Politico: How the U.S. violates its own trade laws to buy seafood from China. Uyghurs and North Koreans are forced to work in Chinese seafood processing plants. But the federal government purchases millions of dollars of this seafood for the military and school lunches. Link to article.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Illinois Governor Pritzker seeks billions for Illinois tech hub and clean energy. Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois is actively pursuing federal funding to transform Illinois into a hub for new technologies. Illinois has already secured significant funds for various projects, such as infrastructure, a Midwest hydrogen hub, and the bid to host the National Semiconductor Technology Center. Now, they are seeking an additional $1 billion from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for clean energy projects.

Illinois is competing with other states for a share of the over $2 trillion in federal funds available through legislation enacted since 2021, such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act.

Pritzker has created a task force called Innovate Illinois, which is collaborating with the private sector and nonprofit organizations. The proposal they are pursuing, called “Rust Belts to Green Belts,” focuses on clean energy initiatives in areas affected by industrial activities, particularly targeting low-income communities.

The funds from the EPA would be used for various purposes, including investments in net-zero emissions transportation, building retrofitting, and solar power projects.

— Unexpected metal price drop impacts U.S. EV transition. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the U.S. is facing an unexpected challenge. A sharp drop in prices for essential metals like lithium, cobalt, and others used in EV batteries is impacting mining companies. As a result, these companies are postponing or suspending new mining projects and expansions. This disruption in the supply chain threatens to exacerbate shortages of these critical materials in the coming years and potentially slow down the Biden administration’s efforts to transition away from gasoline-powered cars.

The situation is concerning because it hampers the development of essential mining infrastructure needed to support the growing demand for EVs. A Wall Street Journal article (link) details that battery-grade lithium prices have seen a significant decline of over 60% this year, while nickel, graphite, and cobalt have experienced drops of around 30%, as reported by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. A key contributing factor to these declines is the slower-than-expected economic recovery in China, the world’s largest consumer of these metals, following the Covid-19 lockdowns. This has created uncertainty around the availability of critical battery materials for the expanding EV industry.

Bottom line: The disruptions are threatening to deepen shortages of those materials in coming years and hit the brakes on the Biden administration’s timeline for weaning the country off gas-powered cars.

— Uncertainty surrounds Biden EPA’s rule on renewable fuel credits for EVs. There is increasing uncertainty regarding the likelihood of the Biden administration’s EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) issuing a rule this year on how it will manage renewable fuel credits for electricity generated from renewable sources used to power electric vehicles (eRINs). A Politico report suggests the agency may not propose this rule before the 2024 elections. EPA had previously indicated that it would remove eRIN provisions from its set rule for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) based on feedback from stakeholders. Instead, the EPA planned to introduce a separate plan later. The agency has already established RFS levels for 2023, 2024, and 2025 through its earlier rule. However, it is mandated by law to establish RFS levels for 2026 by the end of October 2024, implying that a proposed rule from the EPA should be in place before mid-2024.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Carlyle Group, a private-equity firm, announced it would sell its stake in the Chinese operations of McDonald’s back to the fast-food giant. The sale, reportedly worth $1.8 billion, will yield Carlyle a six-times return on its initial investment, made in 2017, according to the Financial Times. China is the second-largest market for McDonald’s. By 2028 it aims to have over 10,000 restaurants there. Citic Capital will remain the majority shareholder in fast-food chain’s local operation.

HEALTH UPDATE

Health experts encourage safe holiday gatherings amid seasonal viruses. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, health experts are urging Americans to adopt safe gathering practices due to the presence of various seasonal viruses. The latest data from the CDC reveals an increase in cases of flu, Covid-19, and RSV across most parts of the country, raising concerns about potential contamination in public spaces and crowded areas.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— Age-old humor. Late-night comedians took on President Biden’s 81st birthday on Monday:

  • Stephen Colbert: “Today is also Joe Biden’s birthday. Biden is now 81 and has broken his own record as the United States’ oldest sitting President. On his birthday, Biden received a festive bouquet of terrible poll numbers. In fact, his approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency – 40 percent. That’s still pretty good for an 81-year-old guy, running around town with poll numbers less than half his age.”
  • Jimmy Fallon: “Today, President Biden took part in a classic White House tradition by pardoning two turkeys, named ‘Liberty’ and ‘Bell.’ They could’ve made Biden look hip by naming them ‘Ken’ and ‘Barbie,’ but instead they went with a reference from 1776.”
  • Seth Meyers: “President Biden turned 81 today despite his campaign staff specifically advising him not to.”

KEY LINKS


WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum | Debt-limit/budget package |