U.S. Closely Watching to See if China Provides Russia with ‘Lethal Assistance’

DHS mulls new rule on H-2A and H-2B visas

The Week Ahead
The Week Ahead
(Farm Journal)

DHS mulls new rule on H-2A and H-2B visas



Washington Focus


Both chambers are out of D.C., but must-have issues remain, including: (1) A debt hike/suspension agreement; (2) Work on individual fiscal year 2023 appropriations measures; and (3) efforts to compete a new farm bill this session. Plenty of time for all three. But we all know Congress is not usually on a quick timeline and rushes at the end of true deadlines.

USDA holds its annual outlook forum (link) in Arlington, Virginia, on Thursday and Friday, when it will give initial forecasts for 2023. It will be the hallway chats, as usual, that are the most important. The early season forecasts are of major importance, at least for a few days. After that, growing season weather and demand outlook take over.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes on Wednesday from its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting.

Blinken meets with Chinese counterpart in Munich. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Saturday, a State Department spokesperson said. The meeting, which took place on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, is the first face-to-face between senior U.S. and Chinese officials since the U.S. shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina earlier this month after it traveled across American airspace.

Blinken made clear to Wang that the U.S. “will not stand for any violation of our sovereignty, and that the PRC’s high altitude surveillance balloon program — which has intruded into the air space of over 40 countries across 5 continents — has been exposed to the world,” a State Dept. spokesperson said.

Wang criticized the U.S. for what he called its “nearly hysterical” reaction to the appearance of a Chinese balloon in its airspace earlier this month. Wang, speaking Saturday before an audience of largely Western defense and security officials at the Munich Security Conference, also said Beijing would set out its position on a potential “political resolution of the Ukrainian crisis,” timed to the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war (Feb. 24). “We are against profiting from others’ misfortune. We are advocating for peace talks,” Wang said, reiterating China’s position that the Ukrainian crisis wasn’t something it wanted to see. “We are not sitting idly by, nor are we adding fuel to the fire,” he said.

In his speech, Wang laid out a sweeping critique of the U.S. for what he described as its “misperception and strategic misjudgment” of China. He criticized last year’s U.S. Chips and Science Act, which allocates $52.7 billion for semiconductor manufacturing in a bid to reduce America’s reliance on foreign-made chips. Wang said the act didn’t reflect fair competition and went against the free trade principles espoused by the U.S. “This is not fair competition,” he said. “In fact, it’s a million miles away.”

Of note: Wang will visit Moscow on Tuesday, highlighting a geopolitical relationship that both China and Russia want to expand.

Blinken is now off to Turkey, where he will take a look at the earthquake recovery effort and meet Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, before traveling to Greece on Tuesday.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to New York to address the assembled United Nations delegates on Friday. President Biden’s visit to Poland at the start of the week will serve as a show of strength to Ukrainian and NATO allies in the face of Russia’s long-expected spring offensive. The EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting on Monday will focus on the war.

Western governments have provided more than $110 billion in support to Kyiv since last February — $38 billion in the form of weapons.

First Lady Jill Biden begins a trip to Africa on Wednesday, with stops in Namibia and Kenya.

Section 230, student debt top divisive Supreme Court agenda. The Supreme Court begins a two-week argument session on Tuesday that includes clashes over student debt forgiveness and a controversial liability shield known as Section 230 that Big Tech argues is fundamental to social media.

Former President Jimmy Carter has decided to “spend his remaining time” at home with his family and receive hospice care rather than seek further medical interventions after a series of recent hospital stays, the Carter Center said Saturday. He is the oldest living former president, as well as the longest-lived former president in the country’s history.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) could remain hospitalized for more than a month as the Pennsylvania Democrat undergoes treatment for depression, a senior aide said, following several health setbacks.

Finance ministers from members of the G20 gather in India, with the plight of heavily indebted countries high on the agenda.


Key Economic Reports and Fed Speakers for the Week


Focus will be on the FOMC Meeting minutes and speeches by Fed officials. Investors will also closely follow personal income, spending, PCE price index, and the second estimate for Q4 GDP growth rate.

Monday, Feb. 20

  • Markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.

Tuesday, Feb. 21

  • S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for February. Consensus estimates are for a 47.2 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 46.7 for the Services, each roughly in line with the January data. Both indexes have been below 50, indicating contraction in their respective sectors, since November.
  • National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales for January. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million homes sold, 80,000 more than in December. Existing-home sales have declined for 11 consecutive months, as the housing market is among the sectors most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes.

Wednesday, Feb. 22

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes from its early-February monetary-policy meeting. Economic data released since the meeting, including a blowout jobs report and hotter-than-expected consumer price index and producer price index, have challenged the disinflation narrative that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put forth at his postmeeting press conference.
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
  • New York Fed President John Williams speaks at the “Credibility of Government Policies: Conference in Honor of Guillermo Calvo,” hosted by the bank and Columbia University.
  • Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler speaks at The Economic Club of New York.

Thursday, Feb. 23

  • Jobless Claims for the Feb. 18 week are expected to come in at 200,000 versus 194,000 in the prior week.
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports its second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Economists forecast that GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5%, four-tenths of a percentage point less than the BEA’s preliminary estimate, which was released in late January.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will have a conversation at the Banking Outlook Conference with former Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will host a fireside chat about “Lessons on Leadership and the Economy.”

Friday, Feb. 24

  • BEA reports personal income and expenditures for January. The consensus call is that both income and spending rose 1%, month over month. This compares with a gain of 0.2% and decrease of 0.2%, respectively, in December. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, is expected to show an increase of 4.3%, year over year, one-tenth of a percentage point less than previously.
  • New home sales, which have been depressed, are expected to hold steady in January, at a 617,000 annualized rate in versus 616,000 in December.
  • Consumer sentiment is expected to end February at 66.4, 1.5 points above January and unchanged from February’s mid-month flash.
  • Fed Governors Philip Jefferson and Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give remarks at the 2023 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


Focus is Thursday and Friday when USDA holds its annual ag outlook confab.

Monday, Feb. 20

Ag reports and events:

  • Markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.
  • MARS monthly report on EU crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s Feb. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • Holiday: U.S., Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Panama

Tuesday, Feb. 21

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Data
  • Vegetables and Pulses Data
  • Chickens and Eggs, Annual
  • National Farmers’ Union Conference, Birmingham, U.K., day 1
  • Grain Forum Dubai 2023, day 1
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday: Argentina, Bangladesh

Energy reports and events:

  • WTI March futures expire

Wednesday, Feb. 22

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Milk Production
  • Poultry Slaughter
  • National Farmers’ Union Conference, Birmingham, day 2
  • Grain Forum Dubai 2023, day 2

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
  • Holiday: Panama, Saudi Arabia

Thursday, Feb. 23

Ag reports and events:

  • Food Price Outlook
  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
  • Livestock Slaughter
  • USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, Arlington, day 1
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Sugar production and cane crush data from Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
  • Holiday: Russia

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Brent April options expire
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
  • Holiday: Japan, Russia

Friday, Feb. 24

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Peanut Prices
  • Cattle on Feed
  • County Estimates: Corn, Soybeans, Sunflowers, Sorghum
  • Cold Storage
  • Crop Values
  • USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, Arlington, day 2
  • FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop conditions reports

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • Holiday: Russia

KEY LINKS


WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum |