Trump’s Tuesday Court Appearance Biggest Weekly Event

Employment report Friday | OPEC+ oil production cut | Disaster aid & crop insurance

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April 02, 2023 08:39 PM

Employment report Friday | OPEC+ oil production cut | Disaster aid & crop insurance

Washington Focus

Congress is on a break, this time two weeks for Easter (others celebrate it one day…). We are into the fourth month of the year and virtually no progress on the debt limit/suspension, at least hearings are underway on fiscal year 2024 spending, and a lot of talk but little action on a new farm bill.

Former President Donald Trump is expected to appear in court Tuesday for his arraignment following his indictment last week by a Manhattan grand jury on more than 30 counts related to business fraud. It’s the first time in US history that a current or former president has been criminally charged. The indictment was filed under seal and the charges are not yet public. Trump’s attorney said the former president will “absolutely” voluntarily surrender to New York law enforcement and plans to file “substantial” legal challenges.

On the political front, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announces bid for 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The 72-year-old becomes the latest to join a Republican field that includes former president Donald Trump, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and business executive Vivek Ramaswamy.

Voters in Chicago will go to the polls Tuesday to elect a new mayor. Incumbent Lori Lightfoot lost her bid for a second term in February after failing to make one of two runoff spots.

NASA and the Canadian Space Agency on Monday will jointly announce the names of the four astronauts who will take a journey around the moon next year aboard the Artemis II rocket. The three Americans and one Canadian will fly farther than any humans traveled during the Apollo missions that ended more than 50 years ago.

Monday, April 3

• President Joe Biden to discuss the administration’s economic agenda in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers remarks on The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

• Social cost of carbon. Brookings Institution discussion on “Social cost of carbon: What it is, why it matters, and why the Biden administration seeks to raise it.”

• Artemis II mission to the moon. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to announce the four astronauts who will venture around the Moon aboard the NASA Orion spacecraft during the Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test on the agency’s path to establishing a long-term scientific and human presence on the lunar surface.

• U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Hudson Institute discussion on “U.S. Policy and Taliban Rule in Afghanistan.”

• U.S., China and supply chains. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies faculty research forum on “How the U.S./China Tech War Shapes State-Business Alignment,” focusing on the weaponization of supply chains.

• Wind power. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Hijacked States, Fighting Windmills and the Value of the Rule of Law,” as part of the Human Trafficking Initiative series.

• Democracy in Brazil. Wilson Center’s Brazil Institute discussion on “Corruption, Accountability and Democracy in Brazil: Challenges and Solutions.”

• Europe outlook on China. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “What is Europe’s Strategic Outlook on China?”

• China and the Middle East. Hudson Institute discussion on “The China Challenge in the Middle East.”

• Ground combat in Ukraine. Atlantic Council discussion on “Game-changers or little-changed? Implications of ground combat in Ukraine.”

• Response to a Sino-Taiwanese war. Institute of World Politics lecture on “The Free World’s Response to a Sino-Taiwanese War.”

Tuesday, April 4

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers opening remarks via a pre-recorded video at the Fed event Exploring Careers in Economics; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak.

• Disaster aid and crop insurance reforms. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Reforming the Federal Crop Insurance and Disaster Aid Programs.”

• World Bank activities. Atlantic Council discussion with outgoing World Bank President David Malpass on “how the World Bank Group can respond to global challenges and help foster inclusive growth around the world.”

• Renewable energy. International Trade Administration meeting of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee to discuss major issues affecting the competitiveness of the U.S. renewable energy and energy efficiency industries, determine sub-committee structure, and provide consultation on REEEAC leadership.

• Hydrogen energy. United States Energy Association discussion on “Introduction to Novel Hydrogen and Methane Detection Technologies,” focusing on Bright Green Hydrogen and safeguarding jobs.

• Covid impacts on mortgages. Competitive Enterprise Institute book discussion on “Shelter from the Storm: How a Covid Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted.”

• Climate and impacts on heavy industry. American Security Project virtual discussion on “Innovating Out of the Climate Crisis: Hard to Abate Sectors,” focusing on heavy industry, including steel, cement and chemical manufacturing.

• Korean issues. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on “Peninsula Plus: Enhancing US-South Korea Cooperation on China, Multilateralism, and Military and Security Technologies.”

Wednesday, April 5

• China challenges. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on “Managing China-Related Proliferation Challenges.”

• CFTC agriculture panel. Commodity Futures Trading Commission meeting by teleconference of the Agricultural Advisory Committee on issues related to the agricultural economy, including geopolitical and sustainability issues, as well as recent developments in the agricultural derivatives markets.

• Cities and clean energy. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “Building Sustainable Cities,” with experts and activists “leading the charge to build greener cities, invest in the clean energy economy and incentivize citizens to live sustainably.”

• Geopolitics and the global economy. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The cost of fragmentation: Geopolitics and the impact on the global economy in 2023 and beyond.”

• Bank deposit insurance. Brookings Institution debate on “Should the ceiling on deposit insurance be lifted?”

• World Bank future. Center for Global Development discussion on “The Future of the World Bank.”

• Strategy on North Korea. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy discussion on “A National Strategy for Countering North Korea.”

• ESG perspectives. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (discussion on “De-mystifying ESG (environmental, social, and governance): A Company, Investor, and Regulatory Perspective.”

• Biosolids panel. Environmental Protection Agency teleconference of the Science Advisory Board Biosolids Panel to receive a briefing from EPA, review and discuss charge questions, and peer review the EPA’s biosolid risk assessment framework.

• Monitoring pollutants. NASA conference call briefing on the upcoming launch of TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions Monitoring of Pollution instrument), the first space-based instrument to observe major air pollutants across North America every four hours during the daytime.

• Regulatory and compliance outlook. FiscalNote virtual discussion on “Regulatory and Compliance Forecast: Predictions and Strategies for Government Affairs Professionals.”

• Uzbek cotton. National Endowment for Democracy discussion on “What Does Winning Look Like: Investing in Labor Rights Campaigns to Foster Change in Repressive Systems,” focusing on state-imposed forces labor in Uzbek cotton.

Thursday, April 6

• Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to speak.

• Markets. Most markets observe normal trading hours, but the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has recommended an early close for bond markets.

• Ukraine accession to the EU. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna on “ways Ukraine can join the European Union within a reasonable timeline and with clear conditions for accession.”

• U.N. development programs. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion with U.N. Development Program Administrator Achim Steiner.

• Taxing multinational companies. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on “Taxing Multinationals in Developing Countries: What has been Achieved and What Remains to be Done?”

• Carbon capture. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Capturing Carbon and Fighting Warming.”

• Iran’s nuclear program. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on report, “Disarming the Bomb: Distilling the Drivers and Disincentives for Iran’s Nuclear Program.”

• Crypto laws. American University Student Chapter of the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies discussion on “Crypto and Privacy Law.”

• Ukraine infrastructure. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Reconstructing Ukraine’s Infrastructure.”

• Geopolitics of critical minerals. Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion on “The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals.”

Friday, April 7

• Markets. Most commodity and financial markets are closed in observance of Good Friday, but U.S. government offices are open.

• China economic development. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs annual conference on “China’s Economic Development and U.S./China Economic Relations.”

Key Economic Reports and Fed Speeches for the Week

Friday brings another Employment update with its usual importance of signals for future Federal Reserve action on interest rates.

Monday, April 3

Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 47.5 reading, about even with the February data. The index has had four consecutive readings below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Census Bureau reports construction spending data for February. Spending is expected to remain flat month over month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.83 trillion.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss her economic outlook at the University of Michigan.
Business meetings: Broadcom and Walt Disney hold their annual shareholder meetings.

Tuesday, April 4

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Economists forecast 10.45 million job openings on the last business day of February, nearly 400,000 fewer than in January. Job openings are off their peak of 12 million in March of 2022 but remain historically elevated with 1.8 openings for every unemployed person.
Factory orders are expected to fall 0.4 percent in February versus January’s 1.6 percent fall. Durable goods orders for February, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, fell 1.0 percent in the month.
Federal Reserve: Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will take part in a moderated discussion at the Federal Reserve’s “Exploring Careers in Economics” event. Also, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak to New York University’s Money Marketeers.
David Malpass, outgoing president of the World Bank Group, will give a keynote address at the Atlantic Council in which he will describe how the bank can further inclusive growth. Malpass recently announced that he will step down as president in June, before his five-year term expires, after he faced backlash for saying he did not know whether “manmade burning of fossil fuels is rapidly and dangerously warming the planet.” He was appointed by former President Donald Trump in 2019. The Biden administration nominated former Mastercard Inc. Chief Executive Ajay Banga to lead the World Bank. Banga is the only candidate nominated so far, and he appears to be cleared to take on the job.
Walmart convenes a two-day investor meeting.

Wednesday, April 5

MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP releases its National Employment Report for March. Consensus estimate is for the economy to add 200,000 private-sector jobs, about 42,000 fewer than in February. Wage growth increased 7.2% year over year in February, led by the leisure and hospitality industry with a 10.1% gain.
ISM releases its Services PMI for March. Consensus call is for a 53.8 reading, slightly lower than in February. Unlike the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI is comfortably above the expansionary level of 50, and has had only one reading below 50 in the past two years, as postpandemic revenge travel and spending have kept the services sector strong.
International Trade: A deficit of $68.7 billion is expected in February for total goods and services trade which would compare with a $68.3 billion deficit in January. Advance data on the goods side of February’s report showed a $0.5 billion deepening in the deficit.
Conagra Brands announces fiscal-third-quarter 2023 results. FedEx holds an investor meeting in New York to discuss its Drive initiative, a cost-cutting plan that the company expects to deliver more than $4 billion in annualized savings by fiscal 2025. Waste Management hosts an investor day to discuss its sustainability initiatives.

Thursday, April 6

Jobless Claims: Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 1. Jobless claims averaged 198,250 in March and remain stubbornly low even after the Federal Reserve’s many interest-rate hikes.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Arkansas State Bank Department’s Day with the Commissioner event.
Earnings: Constellation Brands and Lamb Weston Holdings release earnings.

Friday, April 7

BLS releases the jobs report for March. Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200,000, 111,000 fewer than in February. The unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.6%, near a historic low. Job growth has exceeded expectations for 11 consecutive months, the longest such streak since at least 1998, according to Bloomberg data. In February, the U.S. economy added a better-than-expected 311,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.4%.
Consumer Consumer credit is expected to increase $20.0 billion in February versus a lower-than-expected increase of $14.8 billion in January.
Equity markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. Fixed-income markets are open but close at noon ET.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

USDA’s Crop Progress report returns Monday, while the United Nations’ monthly FAO food price index will be released Friday.

On the energy front, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee holds online discussions on Monday. As noted, Saudi Arabia led surprise OPEC+ oil production cuts, pledging a “voluntary” reduction of 500,000 barrels a day from May until the end of the year.

Monday, April 3

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
Cotton System
Dairy Products
Fats & Oils
Grain Crushings