Trump’s Trade ‘Liberation Day’ Wednesday, April 2 | Key Questions Following

Employment report | Prospective Plantings | Grain Stocks | USAID | Court battles

WEEK AHEAD_PF_FINAL.jpg
The Week Ahead
(Pro Farmer)

The Week Ahead: March 30, 2025


— Odds increasing that some portions of a new farm bill will be included in the coming GOP reconciliation measure. So say Capitol Hill contacts. If so, that would mean higher reference prices and some positive changes for crop insurance. It will also mean changes for SNAP (food stamps) and the Thrifty Food Program. These topics will be part of discussions this week.

— President Trump is pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for what the White House has called “Liberation Day,” the April 2 date he has set for a major escalation in his global trade war, four people familiar with the matter told the Washington Post (link). The article says Trump continues to suggest to his advisers that his administration should continue to escalate the trade measures and has in recent days revived the idea of a universal tariff that would apply to most imports, regardless of their country of origin. More on what to expected this week in the dispatch below.

— Rep. Hill pushes Trump to renegotiate USMCA amid auto tariff tensions. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-Ark.) is urging former President Donald Trump to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to avoid a new wave of auto tariffs set to kick in this week. In an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance, Hill stressed that House Republicans and U.S. businesses are looking for a more strategic, long-term tariff plan from the White House to stabilize economic expectations. “Let’s renegotiate USMCA,” Hill said, citing that nearly 30% of Arkansas’s exports go to Mexico and Canada. He argued that revising the American content requirements in the trade pact would better address the dumping of Chinese auto parts.

Hill mentioned that Walmart, headquartered in Arkansas, is warning that new tariffs will lead to price hikes for consumers. He expressed concern about the uncertainty created by the tariff strategy, which is rattling companies nationwide.

— President Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Friday. Both agreed to meet following Canada’s upcoming election to discuss a new economic and security framework. However, tensions are mounting as Canada prepares to retaliate with tariffs on April 2 — coinciding with Trump’s declared “Liberation Day,” when the auto tariffs are expected to be enacted.

— Funding freeze in USDA farm labor program puts growers at risk of bankruptcy. A coalition of U.S. farmers is sounding the alarm over frozen payments from the USDA’s $50 million Farm Labor Stabilization and Protection Pilot Program (FLSP), warning that the funding halt could push some farms into bankruptcy.

In a letter sent last Thursday to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, 21 of the 141 FLSP grant recipients urged the USDA to immediately release overdue payments. The FLSP, launched under the Biden administration, aimed to expand legal labor access through the H-2A visa program and improve worker benefits like sick leave, safety training, and bonuses. But the initiative was frozen, along with hundreds of other USDA programs, as the Trump administration reviews federal initiatives for policy alignment.

The National Council of Agricultural Employers also penned a letter Thursday, noting reimbursements stopped in January and urging Rollins to communicate the status of the funds.

USDA has not commented publicly on the letters or timeline for resolving the freeze. Farmers say without action soon, the consequences could be dire — not just for their operations, but for the nation’s strained agricultural labor system.

— Cracking the egg price drop: Supply, allegations & scrutiny. The average wholesale price of a dozen eggs is $3, down 8% from $3.27 on March 21, according to USDA data. It’s down 63% from a record $8.15 in the Feb. 21 report. Retail prices, which typically trail wholesale, are beginning to fall as well.

The initial spike was fueled by avian influenza outbreaks that wiped out 12% of the laying hen population. But a recent surge in imports from Brazil, Turkey, and South Korea and a sudden slowdown in bird flu cases have rapidly replenished supply or will soon. Despite the wholesale crash, retail prices may stay volatile, with Easter demand and lingering supply chain hiccups keeping consumers guessing.

Producers under fire. Major egg producers, particularly industry giant Cal-Maine Foods, face accusations of profiteering. Critics allege they took advantage of the avian flu crisis to drive up prices and profits. Between fiscal year (FY) 2021 and FY 2024, Cal-Maine’s gross profits jumped 237%. The Department of Justice is investigating possible collusion to limit supply and artificially inflate prices — though no charges have been filed yet.

Market forces or manipulation? Economists are split. Some defend the price spike as a natural result of tight supply and inelastic production. Others argue that the actual impact of the avian flu was exaggerated, with dominant firms potentially coordinating to maintain inflated prices.

Policy moves and political backlash. The Trump administration has responded with a mix of increased imports and a $1 billion investment in biosecurity and farmer aid. However, critics say the approach favors big agribusiness while weakening state-level animal welfare protections.

WASHINGTON FOCUS

This week is a busy one: President Donald Trump’s big reciprocal tariff announcement is on Wednesday, a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Thursday, and Friday brings the U.S. monthly jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Other events: Monday has USDA releasing key reports on Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks. Tuesday brings two special U.S. House elections in Florida for the seats vacated by Republicans Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. Thursday: U.S. tariffs of 25% on car imports are set to take effect.

Another race to watch on Tuesday is the most expensive judicial election in American history — to fill a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The winning party will gain a 4-3 majority in a swing state where a court ruling made the difference in the 2020 presidential campaign.

— President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day,” set for April 2, represents the culmination of his “America First” trade policy, with plans to introduce sweeping reciprocal tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances and boosting domestic manufacturing.

This reciprocal announcement is being referred to as “the big one” and is expected to target countries imposing tariffs on U.S. exports by matching those rates. Trump said the countries most impacted will be the 15 nations that contribute most significantly to the U.S. trade deficit and impose the largest tariffs (see chart below). “There’s what we would call the ‘Dirty 15,’” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business, adding they have substantial tariffs and other unfair trade barriers. “It’s 15% of the countries, but it’s a huge amount of our trading volume.” Analysts expect these levies to start at 10% to 20%, opening the door for bilateral trade talks that could carve out exclusions, lower the rate, or roll them back entirely.

The move is part of a broader strategy to counteract what Trump describes as decades of unfair trade practices by both allies and rivals.

Reciprocal tariff factors are not just levies but also VAT taxes, currency levels, and possibly even military spending.

TradeDef.jpg
Big Trade Deficit Countries
(USTR)

Beyond the reciprocal tariffs, the suspension of U.S. 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods that are traded under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will expire on April 2, and the newly announced 25% tariff on passenger vehicle imports will go into effect on April 3. However, tariffs on auto parts, including key components such as engines and transmissions, are delayed and will begin no later than May 3, with the exact date to be announced in a forthcoming Federal Register notice. (link).

Goods from Canada and Mexico that adhere to the USMCA were temporarily exempt from tariffs. Approximately 50% of imports from Mexico and 38% from Canada qualify under this exemption. Industries outside the scope (e.g., energy or non-USMCA goods) may still face significant economic strain.

Of note: While initially broad in scope, reports suggest that the tariffs may be more focused than previously anticipated. Certain sectors, like semiconductors, may be excluded or delayed. Trump has hinted at leniency and exceptions for some nations, suggesting a phased or negotiated approach to avoid immediate economic disruption.

India is trying to avoid U.S. tariffs by scrapping its digital services tax and pledging to lower tariffs on certain American goods. Despite this, the U.S. may still launch a Section 301 investigation into India over unfair trade practices. Such a probe could target U.S. firms operating in India, especially financial companies with call centers there and Pharma firms outsourcing generic drug production to India.

More 301 investigations are expected on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding.

White House officials have said the coming tariffs will build on each other, meaning some countries could see certain goods tariffed upward of 40% to 50% if Trump moves forward with all his threats. Many countries will likely retaliate with their own tariffs and other measures, though many will also likely keep the door to diplomacy open in hopes of receiving exemptions or narrowing the scope of tariffs.

Public process for tariff exclusion requests: Businesses negatively impacted by tariffs can file exclusion requests under Section 232 (aluminum and steel) or Section 301 (Chinese products). This process allows companies to seek relief if they meet specific criteria.

Key questions following Trump trade policy announcements Wednesday:

  1. Will investors and companies hoping for clarity get it? Most think the answer is no. Trump said on Wednesday that new tariffs on automobile imports would last the duration of his term, and the White House said they would raise $100 billion. On Friday, speaking to reporters, he expressed openness to cutting deals with trading partners that fall under the tariffs. U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer last Tuesday told Republicans he thought there would be more certainty after April 2 and that Trump’s approach was based on reciprocity and fairness. “We’re going to make it very lenient,” Trump told reporters Wednesday in the Oval Office after signing the new auto tariffs. “I think people are going to be very surprised. It’ll be, in many cases, less than the tariff that they’ve been charging us for decades.”
  2. Will there be any exemptions? Asked on Friday if he expected to put any exemptions in place for life-saving medicines, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while flying to South Florida, “Well, we’ll be announcing it soon. But we have to bring pharmaceuticals, drugs and pharmaceuticals, back into our country.”
  3. Which countries will retaliate? Trump’s new round of reciprocal tariffs,including a 25% tariff on automobiles, is igniting a fresh wave of international retaliation. Canada and China have already hit back with tariffs of their own, while the European Union is poised to respond. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized the U.S., saying it is “no longer a reliable partner” and vowed to diversify trade: “Nothing is off the table as we defend our workers and our country.” Though some Canadian and Mexican auto imports are partially shielded under the USMCA, the U.S. will still target foreign parts, leading to mounting friction. European leaders, including those from Germany and France, are pressing for a coordinated EU response, heightening fears of a broader trade war.

    Of note: Trump said Friday the U.S. will “absolutely” respond to any additional tariffs from Canada with more retaliatory tariffs.

  4. What are the timelines for getting rid of announced tariffs? Trump has repeatedly said that tariffs should be an ongoing source of federal revenue — which would require them to be permanent, not subject to broader negotiations that could wipe them away. Also, Trump allies are pushing for permanent tariffs to encourage companies to shift production back to the U.S., regardless of future trade deals. The goal is to reshape global supply chains and boost domestic manufacturing through long-term incentives. However, making tariffs permanent would require major corporate investments and logistics overhauls, and could risk a continued sharp Wall Street downturn.
  5. What are the economic and political impact assessments following the tariff announcements? Some Republican lawmakers are growing concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could slow economic growth in the second quarter and negatively impact their chances of keeping control of the House during 2026 elections. It could also complicate the GOP push to extend the 2017 tax cuts before they expire at the end of the year. Stephen Moore, a Trump ally, warns that the focus on tariffs may overshadow efforts to renew and the tax cuts and perhaps offer some new ones.

    Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, told USA Today that broad-based reciprocal tariffs left in place for several months would create “the fire for a recession.” He pointed to several consequences of the new levies: higher costs for low- and middle-income earners, a new tariff tax for U.S. businesses, retaliatory tariffs from other nations, and stock market struggles that would wipe out significant wealth of high-income earners critical to consumer spending. “If I’m right, as that becomes evident, I do think it’s likely there will be a pivot and backtrack on the tariffs and a declaration of victory,” Zandi said. “So I don’t know that we’ll ultimately ever get to a recession, but we’re going to get awfully darn close.”

    What Bloomberg Economics says: “Our baseline is that the actual tariffs will be substantially lower than the worst-case scenario, that many will be implemented only after investigations, and that some countries will receive exemptions. Still, after the dust settles, effective tariffs on US imports could be around 15% next year, the highest in almost a century. Facing clear upside risks to inflation, the Fed looks set to hold rates steady. The real risk is that, if the labor market does turn, rate cuts will come too late.” — Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists.

  6. Will Trump administration requested trade policy reports about the tariffs be publicly released? The Trump administration tasked several departments with preparing reports on trade practices and tariff recommendations, which are due by April 1. These reports will inform the reciprocal tariffs announcement expected on April 2. The key departments involved include:

    — Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR): Responsible for identifying unfair trade practices, evaluating trade agreements, and proposing solutions, including tariff measures.

    — Department of Commerce: Conducting investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act into specific imports such as copper and timber.

    — Department of the Treasury: Focused on evaluating countries with substantial tariffs and trade surpluses with the U.S., labeled as the “Dirty 15.”

    — The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is also involved in assessing trade policy impacts. However, its report focuses specifically on fiscal impacts on the federal government and the effects of information collection requests on the public. Unlike other departments tasked with submitting reports by April 1, the OMB’s deadline for its assessment is later — by April 30.

    Of note: The reports from these departments will play a critical role in shaping the administration’s tariff policies moving forward, and they may signal a need for potential aid to some sectors, including agriculture.

  7. Will trade-related aid payments be needed for the U.S. ag sector? The answer to this question may depend on what Trump announces April 2 and perhaps how those announcements play out in U.S. sectors impacted by retaliation by some countries. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) last week said North Dakota farmers have not been hurt by the tariffs Trump has imposed to date, but they are concerned about the potential effect of new ones. When Trump put tariffs on Chinese imports during his first term, his administration sent $23 billion to farmers hurt by the ensuing trade war — and Hoeven said he had already spoken with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins about getting more aid if needed.

    Of note: During the Trump administration’s first term, significant financial aid was provided to the U.S. ag sector to offset losses caused by the trade war with China. The administration distributed around $28 billion through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) to farmers affected by retaliatory tariffs from China. Aid included direct payments totaling $12 billion in 2018 and an additional $16 billion in 2019. These funds were primarily directed at producers of soybeans, corn, wheat, dairy, and certain meat products. Soybean producers received $7.3 billion in payments due to severe losses, as exports to China dropped by 77% during the trade war. Over 92% of proceeds from tariffs imposed on China were used for farmer payments. This financial assistance aimed to mitigate the economic damage caused by China’s retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. agricultural exports.

— USAID to be dissolved by July 2025. In a sweeping overhaul of U.S. foreign aid policy, the Trump administration announced plans to dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and integrate its functions into the State Department. The transition is set to take effect by July 1, 2025.

Reorganization at a glance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the reorganization aims to align foreign assistance more directly with U.S. strategic priorities. Core USAID functions will move to the State Department, while others deemed inconsistent with administration goals will be eliminated.

Workforce impact. Almost all USAID positions not protected by law will be cut. Remaining staff face termination deadlines of either July 1 or Sept. 2, 2025. The State Department will oversee a new hiring process for any retained programs.

Program cuts. Over 80% of USAID’s programs — including those targeting global health crises and infant nutrition — have already been canceled. Only a narrow set of aid initiatives will continue but Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “lifesaving programs” will continue.

Pushback & legal hurdles. The decision has drawn criticism from lawmakers and foreign policy experts who warn that dismantling USAID risks weakening America’s global influence. A federal judge has flagged potential constitutional issues with the move, setting the stage for legal challenges.

Background. Established in 1961, USAID played a central role in U.S. humanitarian efforts abroad. With a $43 billion annual budget, it represented more than 40% of all global humanitarian assistance.

What this means. The reorganization underscores the Trump administration’s commitment to foreign aid reform, prioritizing cost-efficiency and alignment with U.S. national interests. Critics warn, however, that the move may have long-term consequences for U.S. soft power and global leadership.

— Legal storm: Trump administration faces record-breaking lawsuit surge. The Trump administration is contending with an unprecedented wave of legal challenges, with over 100 federal lawsuits filed since the inauguration of his current term in January 2025. That’s an average of three lawsuits for every business day, marking a significant escalation compared to past presidencies.

By the numbers

  • Obama era: 12 rulings froze policies over 8 years
  • George W. Bush: 6 rulings over 8 years
  • Trump’s first term: 64 rulings blocked various initiatives
  • Trump 2025: 100+ lawsuits filed, 46+ decisions have paused initiatives, 15 injunctions in February 2025

Areas of legal dispute

  • Immigration policies: ~30 lawsuits
  • Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): 20+ cases
  • Transgender policy changes: 10 lawsuits
  • Federal Funding, Hiring, and Agency Structure: 20+ cases

Court bottlenecks

  • The District Court in Washington, D.C. has seen the heaviest load, with 51 cases filed there alone.
  • The volume is testing the capacity of the courts, especially with a sharp rise in emergency applications.
Injunctions_Use.jpg
Injunctions
(Harvard Law Review)

Broader trend. This surge continues a shift that began under Obama: lower federal courts increasingly willing to block presidential policies. Under Trump, however, the pace and breadth of challenges have accelerated sharply.

Political implications. The legal resistance highlights deep institutional pushback against Trump’s efforts to reshape the federal government. While some initiatives have been paused, the mixed court rulings underscore an evolving judicial landscape that is more assertive in checking executive power. See next item for how GOP lawmakers are reacting.

— GOP moves to curb courts’ power on nationwide rulings. Republican lawmakers are advancing legislation aimed at limiting federal judges’ authority to issue nationwide injunctions — legal tools that repeatedly blocked former President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.

House: “No Rogue Rulings Act” advances. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) introduced the No Rogue Rulings Act, which would prevent federal district courts from issuing injunctions that extend beyond the immediate parties in a case. The bill includes an exception for lawsuits filed by multiple states. The House Judiciary Committee approved the measure earlier this month, and a full House vote is expected as early as this week. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) framed the bill as a necessary step to rein in judicial activism. “We’re restoring balance — judges should interpret law, not write it,” said Rep. Issa. Rep Scalise added: “This will put an end to rogue rulings that stall the will of the American people.” Republicans argue that such injunctions have allowed unelected judges to obstruct executive policies nationwide, circumventing the normal appeals process.

Senate: Companion bill introduced. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced the Senate version, the Nationwide Injunction Abuse Prevention Act of 2025, which mirrors Issa’s proposal. Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) voiced support for revisiting the judiciary’s ability to issue sweeping national decisions, stating, “It’s time to scrutinize the power individual judges have to dictate national policy from a single courtroom.”

Critics warn of undermined checks and balances. Democrats and civil liberties advocates strongly oppose the legislation. They argue it would weaken a key judicial check on executive overreach and diminish constitutional safeguards. “These bills are a dangerous attempt to sideline the courts and rubber-stamp presidential authority,” said a spokesperson for the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF).

Courts vs. Trump-era policies. Nationwide injunctions from federal courts have blocked several high-profile Trump administration actions, including deportations under the Alien Enemies Act and mass terminations of federal employees. These rulings have fueled conservative frustrations over what they view as judicial interference in executive authority. Trump recently called for the impeachment of U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, who ruled against a Trump-era deportation policy. The push has drawn criticism and is seen as unlikely to advance in Congress. Chief Justice John Roberts has also weighed in on the broader issue of judicial independence, stating that “impeachment is not the remedy for judicial disagreement — appellate review is.”

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, March 31
· HPAI and egg prices. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Highly Infectious Avian Flu and the Price of Eggs: Are There Pathways to a Solution?”
· U.S./China relations. Council on Foreign Relations discussion on “The Future of U.S./China Relations.”
· Global economic challenges. Reuters virtual discussion on “the challenges facing the global economy at a time when a new global trade war is fueling market uncertainty, driving up the price of gold, threatening a fresh wave of inflation and dampening already lackluster global growth prospects,” part of the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker series.
· Weaponizing the dollar. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “Weaponizing the Dollar: Trade Wars and Global Power.”

Tuesday, April 1
· Whole milk in schools. Senate Ag Committee hearing on “Review S 222, the ‘Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act,’ and Improving Children’s Health.”
· Nomination hearing: Joint Chiefs of Staff. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of retired Lt. Gen. John Caine to be general and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
· Deregulation and small businesses. House Small Business Committee hearing on “The Golden Age: Unleashing Main Street Through Deregulation.”
· Judicial overreach. House Judiciary Courts, Intellectual Property, Artificial Intelligence, and the Internet Subcommittee and Constitution and Limited Government Subcommittee joint hearing on “Judicial Overreach and Constitutional Limits on the Federal Courts.”
· Countering Iran. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “A Return to Maximum Pressure: Comprehensively Countering the Iranian Regime’s Malign Activities.”
· JFK files. House Oversight and Government Reform Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets Subcommittee hearing on “The JFK Files.”
· Big tech. Senate Judiciary Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee hearing on “Big Fixes for Big Tech.”
· Global health funding cuts. Senate Democrats discussion on “the health and security implications of the Trump Administration’s global health funding cuts.”

Wednesday, April 2
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivers virtual remarks on Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.
· Nomination hearing: Interior, Energy. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the nominations of Katharine MacGregor to be deputy Interior secretary; and James Danly to be deputy Energy secretary.
· Small business growth. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Fueling America’s Future: How Investment Empowers Small Business Growth.”
· Surface Transportation reauthorization. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Constructing the Surface Transportation Reauthorization Bill: United States Secretary of Transportation’s Perspective.” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy testifies.
· U.S. energy dominance. House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Unleashing the Golden Age of American Energy Dominance.”
· Universal injunctions. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Rule by District Judges II: Exploring Legislative Solutions to the Bipartisan Problem of Universal Injunctions.”
· DOGE impacts on NOAA. House Natural Resources Committee Democrats hold a forum on “the escalating attacks on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by the Trump administration and Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency).”

Thursday, April 3
· Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications in Georgia; Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the Economic Outlook in Pittsburgh.
· Nomination hearing: OPM, OMB. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on the nominations of Scott Kupor to be director of the Office of Personnel Management; and Eric Matthew Ueland to be deputy director for management in the Office of Management and Budget.
· Reciprocal tariffs. Brookings Institution discussion on “Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: What Are They? How Will They Work?”
· Digital payments and small businesses. Punchbowl News discussion on the news of the day, digital payments and small business.
· Economic resilience. New America virtual discussion on “The End of Aid? Rethinking Development and Economic Resilience.”
· Tariff landscape. Wilson Center’s Canada Institute and Mexico Institute virtual discussion on “The North American Tariff Landscape.”

Friday, April 4
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook in Virginia; Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and Banking in San Francisco; Fed Governor Christopher Waller participates in a discussion on Payments in New York.

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

The focus this week is on U.S. tariffs and Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day.” The data calendar highlights is Friday with the Employment report. Forecasts reflect early signs of a cooling labor market, with initial estimates from analysts projecting 135,000 jobs were added, down from 151,000 in February.

Monday, March 31
· Chicago PMI | Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

Tuesday, April 1
· PMI Manufacturing | Construction Spending | ISM Manufacturing Index | JOLTS

Wednesday, April 2

Thursday, April 3

  • Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications in Georgia; Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the Economic Outlook in Pittsburgh.
  • Jobless Claims | International Trade | PMI Composite Final
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply

Friday, April 7

  • Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on the Economic Outlook in Virginia; Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and Banking in San Francisco; Fed Governor Christopher Waller participates in a discussion on Payments in New York.
  • Employment
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Focus comes Monday with USDA reports on Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks.

Monday, March 31

Ag reports and events:

Energy reports and events:
· Australian Domestic Gas Outlook conference 2025, Sydney; runs through Thursday | SOS Ocean meeting
· Brent May futures expire
· Holiday: Several countries observe Eid Al-fitr; India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore

Tuesday, April 1

Ag reports and events:

Energy reports and events:

  • API US inventory report | OPEC+ countries to start reviving some halted production | BNEF Energy Transition Forum
  • Holiday: Several countries observe Eid Al-fitr; Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan

Wednesday, April 2

Ag reports and events:
· Weekly Weather: State Stories | Broiler Hatchery

Energy reports and events:

Thursday, April 3

Ag reports and events:
· Export Sales | Slaughter Weekly

Energy reports and events:

Friday, April 4

Ag reports and events:
· CFTC Commitments of Traders report
· United Nations’ FAO food price index and monthly grains report
· AMIS Market Monitor
· FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
· Livestock and Meat International Trade Data NASS: Dairy Products | Peanut Prices

Energy reports and events:

· ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | Baker-Hughes Rig Count
· Holiday: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Indonesia

KEY DATES IN MARCH & APRIL

March 31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

April:

1: JOLTS | USDA “industrial” reports on grain, oilseed crushings | Hatchery Production, Annual
1: Required minimum distribution due if you turned 73 in 2024
2: ADP Employment | U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced
3: International Trade in Goods and Services | U.S. will start collecting duties on imported vehicles
4: Employment
4: NCAA Women’s basketball Final Four starts
5: NCAA Men’s basketball Final Four starts
7: Crop Progress | Agricultural Trade Data Update
7: The Masters (golf)
9: Crop Production Historical Track Records
10: CPI | Crop Production | WASDE
11: PPI-FD | Consumer Sentiment
13: Passover begins
14: Crop Progress
15: 2024 income taxes due; last day for 2024 IRS, HSA contributions; first quarter 2025 taxes due
16: Retail Sales
17: Housing Starts and Permits; Cattle on Feed; National Hemp Report
18: Good Friday
20: Easter
21: Crop Progress | Chickens and Eggs
21: Boston Marathon
22: Existing Home Sales | Milk Production
23: New Home Sales
24: Durable Goods Orders | Cold Storage
25: Food Price Outlook | Consumer Sentiment
28: Crop Progress
29: International Trade in Goods | JOLTS | Consumer Confidence | Meat Animals - Prod., Disp., and Income | Milk - Prod., Disp., and Income | Poultry - Production and Value
30: ADP Employment | Employment Cost Index | GDP | Personal Income and Outlays incl. PCE Price Index | Ag Prices

LINKS

Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Eggs/HPAI | NEC task force on HPAI, egg prices | Options for HPAI/Egg prices |Trump tariffs | Greer responses to lawmakers | Trump reciprocal tariffs |