Trump’s Day 1 Tariffs Roil Markets; Trade Negotiations Begin on Accelerated Schedule

Trump’s tariff threats shake markets, reignite trade tensions, including USMCA | Currency trade war with China?

•

November 26, 2024 08:18 AM

News/Markets/Policy Updates: Nov. 26, 2024

— Trump announces new Day 1 tariff plans targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. President-elect Donald Trump revealed plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing concerns over the influx of illegal drugs, according to posts on Truth Social. Additionally, Trump announced a forthcoming 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, linking the decision to issues of immigration and drug trafficking from those countries. “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” he wrote. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” The New York Times says (link) Trump’s pledge to use tariffs to stem the flow of opioids from China could backfire if Beijing responds by ending counternarcotics cooperation.

Of note: Trump has made no secret of his desire to use tariffs to further his America-first agenda, and he has yet to announce his pick to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Another tariff supporter, Robert Lighthizer, is in the running.)

Tariff strategy in sight. Calling the measures a national security imperative might bolster Trump’s legal authority to bypass Congress in enacting the measures. Market reminder: once tariffs are introduced, they’re not easy to roll back.

Tariffs on China: Trump intends to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing concerns over the influx of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, which he claims is exported from China to Mexico and then trafficked into the United States. This tariff is part of a broader strategy to combat drug trafficking and immigration issues linked to these countries.

China warned against trade wars, advocating for cautious responses.

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A 25% tariff is planned for all imports from Mexico and Canada. Trump has linked this decision to immigration control and drug trafficking concerns, asserting that these tariffs will pressure Mexico to take more stringent actions against illegal migration and drug exports. (Says Shaun Haney of RealAgriculture.com: “He is gonna put a 25% tariff on Canadian potash when it’s on 87% of U.S. corn acres. That’ll be interesting.”)

Ag trade impacts: From Canada, major imports are energy, oats, and fed cattle; Mexico is energy, feeder cattle. Mexico is one of the largest importers of U.S. grains and oilseeds.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by emphasizing minimal migrant flow from Canada and cooperation on fentanyl disruptions. Trudeau spoke to Trump about trade and border security after the president-elect’s announcement, the New York Times reported.

The threatened tariffs will affect large swaths of U.S. trade. Goods valued at more than $1.5 trillion move among the three North American nations, while the United States and China exchange about $600 billion worth. China could just lift tariffs in place on U.S. products like soybeans, etc.

In addition, Trump has hinted at potentially higher tariffs — ranging from 25% to 100% — on Mexican imports until the country addresses these issues effectively.

Another market impact: Says one soy industry analyst: “So assume +25% for canola oil into the U.S. and +10% for UCO from PRC on top of the 13% rebate being rescinded on Dec. 1. Correct?” Answer: Yes. The SBO market has responded positively to thoughts of tariffs on UCO.

Financial market impact: Imposing a 25% tariff, especially on a neighboring country, is likely to raise the cost of imported goods. This can directly lead to inflation by increasing prices for consumers and businesses. Neighboring countries are often major trading partners, so tariffs on their goods can ripple through the economy. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a deliberate approach to policy adjustments, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve will not preemptively react to potential policy changes (like tariffs) until they are implemented, and their effects begin to materialize. This reflects the Fed’s focus on evidence-based decision-making rather than reacting to political or speculative scenarios. Says Barron’s: “There are just nine days between Trump’s inauguration and the Fed’s January meeting. If day one brings fresh tariffs on Mexico and Canada, then expect a sharp market reaction and fireworks well into the new year.”

The proposed tariffs are expected to have several economic consequences:
• Increased costs: The tariffs could significantly raise prices for consumers and businesses in the U.S., particularly affecting industries reliant on imported goods. For instance, a 10% tariff on all foreign goods could add billions in costs to sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), where the U.S. is a major importer. However, one analyst emails: “This does not necessarily have to be the case — in fact, I think in Trump’s first term, this was not the case. Currency devaluation can offset the tariff (see next item). Reduced price to say the Canadian farmer of 25% could occur. Seldom is the entire cost of the tariff seen in the country imposing the tariffs. I like the idea of forcing Mexico and Canada to clean up the problem they are letting occur.”
• China holds a potent countermeasure: a possible currency devaluation. Weakening the renminbi could make Chinese exports cheaper, offsetting the impact of tariffs. This strategy was used during Trump’s first term in 2018 and 2019. However, such a move risks capital flight, dampened consumer confidence, and challenges to China’s economic stability, especially amidst a fragile housing market. Despite the risks, Beijing remains strongly opposed to new tariffs. It has bolstered export strategies by expanding overseas manufacturing and providing financial support to exporters. With Trump’s administration prioritizing currency policy, a strategic renminbi devaluation could intensify tensions and provoke harsher retaliatory measures. Link to more on this via the New York Times.
• Retaliation risks: There is a strong likelihood that these tariffs will provoke retaliatory measures from affected countries, particularly China and Mexico. Such responses could further escalate trade tensions and disrupt existing trade agreements like the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). The treaty includes a provision for a review of its terms in 2026. Some also say that this indicates Trump may have even broader plans for redoing portions of USMCA under the 2026 review of the trade deal he signed. The Trump team already has been eyeing potential changes designed to prevent China from using Mexico as an export base for its electric vehicles, steel and other goods.
• Economic slowdown: Economists warn that the imposition of these tariffs may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, with estimates suggesting that they could reduce U.S. GDP by at least 1.3% over time. The overall impact could be felt through increased inflation rates and reduced consumer spending power.

Strategic considerations. Trump’s approach appears to be more aggressive than during his first term, with plans to utilize statutes that allow for quicker tariff implementation without extensive processes. This could mean that tariffs are enacted soon after he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Additionally, his administration may focus on specific industries, such as electric vehicles produced in Mexico by Chinese-owned companies, which could face tariffs as high as 100%.

Upshot: Trump’s actions demonstrate that he is serious about renewing confrontation over a trading system that he believes costs the U.S. dearly. His tariff proposals reflect a continuation of his “America First” policy aimed at reshaping trade dynamics in favor of U.S. interests while addressing complex issues like drug trafficking and immigration. However, the potential economic backlash raises significant concerns among economists and industry leaders alike.

— Mexico NWS trade issue update. We provided a summary (link) of an APHIS briefing on the topic. For the latest updates on control efforts, refer to the APHIS website.

Says Cattle Market Notes Weekly: “There are many potential impacts of this announcement and also many unknowns. A few unknowns that will be key in potential impacts are: whether additional cases are identified (and where); how long the import ban lasts; and will the ban continue to affect all imported cattle from Mexico or just those from specific regions.

“The market impacts of this announcement are likely to be obvious in the near term. The U.S. imports a significant number of feeder cattle from Mexico, and that is now temporarily suspended. Roughly 5% of feedlot placements this year have been imported feeder cattle from Mexico. The fall months are a seasonally high import period. If the ban on imports of feeder cattle lasts awhile, it would mean a lower supply of feeder cattle going into feedlots. Tight feeder cattle supplies would get tighter which would mean more support for prices.”

Southern Ag Today (link) adds: “Feeder cattle imports from Mexico are an important source of cattle for U.S. cattle feeders and beef production. Imports have a highly seasonal pattern with the most entering in the Spring and late in the year. These steers and spayed heifers often first go to stocker grazing programs and then to feedlots. Imports in 2024 have amounted to about 5% of feedlot placements. Cattle enter the U.S. through 11 ports of entry: 3 in Arizona, 2 in New Mexico, and 6 in Texas. Year to date, 1,195,702 feeder cattle have entered the U.S. Of those, 29% have entered through Arizona, 51% through New Mexico, and 20% through Texas.

“A simple, back of the envelope analysis would estimate that a 5% decline in feeder cattle supplies would lead to about an 8.6% increase in feeder cattle prices, all else held equal. We might also consider the impact regionally, as most of these feeder cattle would be fed in the Southern Plains or the Southwest. The limitation on imports would likely have a significant effect on feeders in those areas.

“One of the major differences today compared to pre-eradication is the presence of many more deer and exotics. In the “old days”, there were few deer in parts of Texas due to the impact of screw worms on deer survival. Eradication allowed rapid increases in the deer population. The recent development of the exotic wildlife industry presents the potential for much larger economic harm from re-infestation.

“It’s important to remember that screw worms can be controlled. The use of sterile male flies allows proven and effective control. Cooperation with our southern neighbors pushed eradication as far as Panama. But, as is often the case, these old menaces return.”

— Trump endorsed Florida’s chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis, to fill the congressional seat vacated by ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz, even before the CFO has officially announced his run. Patronis, 52, who has said he is mulling a bid for the political post, has been a staunch Trump loyalist and previously backed legislation to allocate up to $5 million in Florida taxpayer dollars to support the president-elect’s legal bills. Last week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that a primary race for Gaetz’s seat will take place Jan. 28 and a general election for it April 1.

— Trump has appointed key figures to lead his administration’s legislative and political operations. James Braid, a top aide to running mate JD Vance, will head the White House’s Office of Legislative Affairs, while Matt Brasseaux, a Republican National Committee staffer, will direct the Office of Political Affairs. Alex Latcham, a strategist involved in Trump’s endorsement efforts, will lead the Office of Political Liaison. The team will focus on advancing Trump’s legislative agenda, including a major tax bill and key tariffs, alongside confirming Cabinet and judicial nominees. Despite Republican majorities in Congress, priorities like Trump’s tax proposals and controversial appointments, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services, face political hurdles. Senate resistance has already forced Matt Gaetz to withdraw as attorney general nominee. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has also raised concerns about funding Trump’s proposal to eliminate income tax on tips, adding further complexity to the administration’s economic agenda.

— Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly keeping her political future wide open, with potential plans for a presidential bid in 2028 or a gubernatorial campaign in her home state, following her recent defeat to President-elect Donald Trump. Before replacing President Joe Biden on the 2024 ticket, Harris was one of the least popular vice presidents in recent history, with a favorability rating of approximately 36% in March 2024, according to Real Clear Polling. An NBC News poll in 2023 even recorded her favorability at a record low of 32%. However, this rating experienced a sudden shift in July when Biden stepped down from his presidential nomination for the Democratic Party, and Harris stepped in.

— Redistricting forecast: Shifting power to red states. The American Redistricting Project predicts significant changes in congressional representation following the 2030 Census. Blue states are expected to lose a total of 13 House seats: California (-4), New York (-3), Illinois (-2), and one each in Minnesota, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania (a swing state), and Oregon. Meanwhile, red-leaning states stand to gain: Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee (+1 each), Florida (+3), and Texas (+4). These shifts will impact not only congressional districts but also the Electoral College, potentially tilting national political power further toward Republican strongholds.

— California farmers and Trump: A collision course over immigration. California farmers, many of whom are ardent Trump supporters, face potential disruption from President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. With half of California’s 162,000 farmworkers estimated to be undocumented, such actions could devastate the agricultural sector, leading to labor shortages, unharvested crops, and soaring food prices, the Los Angeles Times reports (link). Farmers hope for measures like worker legalization or expanded access to H-2A guest-worker visas. However, farmworker advocates warn that guest-worker programs risk exploitation, while undocumented workers express fear and uncertainty. As policies take shape, echoes of historical deportation campaigns, such as “Operation Wetback” in the 1950s, amplify concerns about the future of labor in California’s fields. Farmers stress that a stable workforce is essential to ensure the nation’s food security.

— Thanksgiving costs shift amid falling turkey production. Turkey production in the U.S. is expected to total 205 million this year, a 6% drop from last year and a 17% decline since 2017, according to USDA’s the National Agricultural Statistics Service. With demand for turkey also falling, prices have decreased by 6% from 2023 to about $1.60 per pound, reports the Farm Bureau. Sweet potatoes are more affordable this year, while prices for dinner rolls and cubed stuffing mix have risen. The price of eggs has risen significantly.

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: European and Asian stocks fell, reflecting worries that Trump’s policies will hurt U.S. exporters. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar weakened. Europe, Japan and South Korea weren’t even mentioned in Trump’s announcement, but stocks have fallen there, too. That suggests rising fears that a new trade war could scramble global supply chains and dent profits. Trump cast the tariffs as necessary to clamp down on migrants and illegal drugs flowing across borders, and the market reaction was swift. The Canadian dollar dropped to a four-year low. The Mexican peso sank to its weakest since 2022. S&P 500 futures and Treasuries were flat. Automakers are some of the hardest hit stocks, with Volkswagen, Stellantis and Nissan, which run manufacturing operations in Mexico, all down. In Asia, Japan -0.9%. Hong Kong flat. China -0.1%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.5%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices started the holiday week with gains. The Dow rose 440.06 points, 0.99%, at 44,736.57. The Nasdaq gained 51.18 points, 0.27%, at 19,054.84. The S&P 500 was up 18.03 points, 0.30%, at 5,987.37.

— Walmart retreats on diversity initiatives amid conservative pressure. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, has announced significant cutbacks on its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs following pressure from anti-DEI activist Robby Starbuck. The retailer will cease considering race and gender for supplier contracts, discontinue racial equity training, and stop collecting demographic data for financing assessments. Walmart also plans to review funding for Pride events and will no longer use the term “DEI” in its communications, instead emphasizing “belonging.” The decision comes after Starbuck threatened a boycott ahead of Black Friday, leveraging his 700,000 followers to demand the rollback of LGBTQ and DEI initiatives. While Walmart claims the changes align with its ongoing review post-Supreme Court rulings on affirmative action, critics see this as part of a growing backlash against corporate diversity commitments, emboldened by President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Walmart’s shift mirrors moves by other major corporations like Boeing and Deere & Co., sparking debates over the future of DEI in corporate America.

— Macy’s uncovers $154 million accounting scandal. Macy’s revealed that a former employee concealed up to $154 million in delivery expenses using false accounting entries over three years. As a result, the company has postponed its third-quarter earnings release from today to Dec. 11 to conclude its investigation.

— Oil prices fall amid Israel/Lebanon ceasefire reports. Oil prices declined sharply on Monday as reports emerged of a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Brent crude dropped $2.16 (2.87%) to settle at $73.01 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $2.30 (3.23%) to close at $68.94 per barrel.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat faced pressure earlier in the overnight session but have firmed and are trading near session highs. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally higher, soybeans were 4 to 5 cents higher and wheat futures were 6 to 9 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index was more than 200 points lower and front-month crude oil futures were about 65 cents higher.

Cash cattle rose $1.60 to an average of $186.39 last week, snapping a three-week string of losses. Wholesale beef prices firmed $2.30 for Choice to $309.71 and $1.67 for Select to $273.74 on Monday.

The CME lean hog index is down another 40 cents to $88.09 as of Nov. 18. Following Monday’s gains, December lean hog futures held a $6.115 discount to today’s cash quote. The pork cutout firmed $1.56 on Monday to $93.33 as gains in all other cuts more than offset a $6.43 drop in primal belly prices.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: March corn fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.33, below the 20- and 40-day moving averages.
• Soy complex: January soybean futures settled 2 1/4 cents higher to $9.85 3/4 though settled nearer session lows. January meal futures climbed $4.40 to $295.90. January bean oil futures sunk 51 points to 41.33 cents and closed well off intraday lows.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat fell 9 cents to $5.55 3/4 and nearer the daily low. March HRW wheat lost 8 1/2 cents to $5.57 and nearer the session low. March spring wheat futures fell a nickel to $5.96 1/2.
• Cotton: March cotton futures rose 95 points to 71.72 cents, ending the session above the 20-day moving average.
• Cattle: February live cattle fell 50 cents to $187.70, near the daily low after hitting a three-week high early on. January feeder cattle rose $1.175 to $255.475, nearer the session low and hit a 4.5-month high.
• Hogs: December lean hogs futures climbed 30 cents to $81.975 though closed mid-range.

— Of note:

• Yielding a signal? On Monday, the closely watched yield curve inverted for the first time since September. Treasury yields dropped following news that President-elect Donald Trump plans to appoint Wall Street veteran Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. 10-year Treasury Yield: Fell by 0.15 percentage points to 4.262%, marking the largest single-day drop since August. 2-year Treasury Yield: Decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 4.271%. Yield Curve Inversion: The 10-year yield being lower than the 2-year yield reflects an inverted yield curve. This is unusual because longer-term securities typically yield more than shorter-term ones and is often seen as a warning sign of potential economic slowdown or uncertainty.

• The Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari said it’s reasonable to consider another interest rate cut next month. Austan Goolsbee, another central bank official, also argued for easing barring signs of the economy overheating. But Citigroup strategists said the Fed should pause, opposing the bank’s own economists who see a half-point move in December.

• Sucker punch. “This is President Trump’s negotiating style: step one, punch in the face, step two, let’s negotiate.” — Kieran Calder, Head of equity research for Asia at Union Bancaire Privee.

— Musk’s $2 trillion cut ambition faces federal spending reality. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, leading the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under President-elect Donald Trump, aim to slash U.S. federal spending by $2 trillion. However, the entrenched structure of federal expenditures — dominated by mandatory programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid — poses significant challenges, the Wall Street Journal reports (link).

Reasons: Mandatory spending, coupled with net interest payments, accounts for three-quarters of the $6.75 trillion federal budget, leaving discretionary categories like defense and other programs as the primary targets for cuts. While nondefense discretionary spending comprises just 14% of the total budget, defense spending and the federal workforce also draw scrutiny.

Critics highlight that deeper cuts risk impacting essential services and benefits that millions of Americans depend on. Compounding the issue, the U.S. operates at a budget deficit of $1.83 trillion, funded largely through debt, making drastic reductions politically and logistically complex.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was trading around unchanged with the euro and British pound both firmer against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was firmer, trading around 4.29%, with a mixed-to-lower tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures remained higher, with U.S. crude around $69.65 per barrel and Brent around $73.15 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher, with gold around $2,630 per troy ounce and silver around $30.54 per troy ounce.

— Beef stocks rise more than normal; pork stocks drop more than average in October. USDA’s Cold Storage report showed frozen beef stocks at 431.9 million lbs. at the end of October, up 19.4 million lbs. from September, whereas the five-year average was a 15.5-million-lb. increase during the month. Beef inventories fell 13.8 million lbs. (3.1%) from year-ago and 47.3 million lbs. (9.9%) from the five-year average. Pork stocks totaled 426.0 million lbs., down 32.4 million lbs. from the previous month, which was nearly double the five-year average decline of 16.8 million lbs. during the month. Pork inventories fell 11.9 million lbs. (2.7%) from year-ago and 63.8 million lbs. (13.0%) from the five-year average.

— Ag trade update: South Korea purchased 198,000 MT of corn in two separate tenders, with 133,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 65,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S. or South America. South Korea purchased 50,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Jordan purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin hard milling wheat. Tunisia tendered to buy 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat and 100,000 MT of durum wheat — all optional origin. Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin rice.

— Thanksgiving storm to bring cold, rain, and snow across the U.S. A powerful Thanksgiving storm is set to sweep through much of the U.S. this week, delivering the coldest air in months along with heavy rain and snow in some areas. Starting Wednesday night, the storm is expected to impact the Midwest and South, spreading to the East by Thanksgiving Day. While the exact path remains uncertain, two possible scenarios will determine which cities face the worst weather. Chilly air will begin filtering into northern states early in the week, with a widespread push of frigid, winter-like temperatures affecting millions by Friday.

— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Lakes and Central Rockies... ...Below average temperatures in the Plains.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:
• Grains firmer this morning
• Cash cattle, beef fundamentals strengthen
• Cash hog index continues to drop, pork cutout rebounds
• Cordonnier raises Brazilian soybean crop forecast
• Sharp increase in winter wheat CCI ratings

CONGRESS

— The Congressional Black Caucus will start 2025 with a record number of members, 62, as the number of Black federal lawmakers overall reaches new heights.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Israel and Hezbollah near truce agreement, awaiting final approvals. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are poised to announce a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah concerning Lebanon, with White House national security spokesman John Kirby stating that “we’re close” but cautioned that “nothing is done until everything is done.” Israel’s cabinet is set to review the deal today, while a U.S.-proposed plan suggests Israel will withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese troops within 60 days. Both sides have indicated that most obstacles have been cleared, following heightened conflict since October 2023.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Weather turns favorable for Ukrainian crops. Weather this month was mostly favorable for the development of winter grain crops in Ukraine, but some of seedlings are still underdeveloped due to the extended drought, the country’s state weather forecaster said. “According to the assessment of meteorologists, the condition of plants before entering winter is mainly good, in some areas of the central and north-eastern regions — satisfactory,” analyst APK-Inform said.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Newsom pledges California EV rebates if Trump cuts federal tax credit. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) has vowed to reinstate electric vehicle (EV) rebates if President-elect Donald Trump eliminates the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Newsom, a Democrat and potential 2028 presidential candidate, announced plans to fund the rebates by charging refineries and other what he calls polluting facilities, emphasizing California’s leadership in clean energy and climate action.

One big exception to Newsom’s proposal: Teslas may not qualify. His office told Bloomberg News that the current proposal includes market-share limitations that would exclude Tesla’s popular EV models. The details — including Tesla’s possible omission from the credits — will be negotiated with the state legislature and could change, Newsom’s office said.

Newsom’s pledge signals the start of a likely contentious battle with the Trump administration over environmental policies, including California’s ban on new gas-powered car sales by 2035. Trump plans to revoke California’s authority to set independent air-pollution standards, a power restored under President Biden. California, the largest car market in the U.S., has long set stricter emission standards than federal levels, influencing national and automaker policies.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— USDA updates food price inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025. USDA maintained its 2024 food price inflation forecast at 2.3% for all foods, with grocery prices rising 1.2% and restaurant prices increasing 4.1%. Notably, prices for fish, seafood (-1.9%), and dairy (-0.1%) are projected to decline.

For 2025, food price inflation was revised upward to 2.5%, with grocery prices climbing 1.6% and restaurant prices 3.1%. Fresh vegetables are the only grocery item forecast to decline in price (-0.7%).

Egg prices remain volatile, with a 6.2% rise expected in 2024 and a smaller 3.4% increase forecast for 2025.

October saw mixed trends: grocery prices fell in 8 categories but rose in 7 others, with annual declines in fish, pork, and processed fruits and vegetables.

Bottom line: While the overall pace of inflation is easing, consumers continue to face elevated costs, particularly in restaurants and for select grocery categories like sugar, sweets, and fats.

— Recall alert expanded for ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. Yu Shang Foods has significantly expanded its recall of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products due to potential Listeria contamination, according to USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). Initially recalling 4,500 pounds, the company expanded the recall on Nov. 21 to include 72,240 pounds of products. The affected items, produced before Oct. 28, were flagged after FSIS routine testing and follow-ups confirmed Listeria contamination in both product and environmental samples. Link to updated product list.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— The Democratic National Committee will elect a new chairman on Feb. 1 after holding four public forums throughout January for candidates to make their pitches.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— USITC schedules final phase of investigation into 2,4-D imports from India and China. The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) set a timeline (link) for the final phase of its antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigation into 2,4-D imports from India and China. This follows the Department of Commerce’s preliminary determination that these imports were subsidized and sold in the U.S. at below fair value, potentially harming domestic industry.

Key dates in the investigation include:
• April 1, 2025: USITC hearing.
• April 8, 2025: Deadline for post-hearing briefs.
• April 23, 2025: Release of all information to parties.
• April 25, 2025: Final comments deadline.

• March 27, 2025: Department of Commerce’s final determination.
• May 12, 2025: USITC’s final determination.

The investigation was initiated on March 14, 2024, at the request of Corteva Agriscience. The USITC is assessing whether these imports materially harm or threaten the U.S. industry or impede its establishment.

KEY LINKS