The Week Ahead: April 5, 2025
— Trump urges Americans to “hang tough” as tariffs trigger market freefall. President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Saturday to defend his sweeping new tariff policy after global markets plummeted and bipartisan criticism mounted. The tariffs — announced on what Trump dubbed “Liberation Day” — have triggered one of the sharpest market downturns since 2020, erasing trillions in market value. Trump called on Americans to “hang tough,” promising that although the new levies “won’t be easy,” the end result would be “historic.” He blamed foreign nations — especially China — for decades of economic imbalance, calling the U.S. a “whipping post.” Trump claimed over “FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT” has poured into the country under his leadership. China retaliated Friday with a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, mirroring Trump’s move. Officials in Beijing called Trump’s policy “unilateral bullying” and paused negotiations on a U.S.-based TikTok acquisition. Trump claimed China had “panicked” and was now “playing it wrong.” Criticism is coming from both political parties. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned against alienating allies while trying to curb China’s practices. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) called it a “trade war” and voiced concern over its economic impact. (See next item for more on Cruz’s comments). Some GOP lawmakers are considering legislation requiring congressional approval for future tariffs, but even if approved in the Senate and House (unlikely), it would be vetoed by President Trump. The Senate bill introduced Thursday by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the “Trade Review Act of 2025,” would limit a president’s power to impose tariffs, including allowing Congress to vote to end any tariff at any time. It would also require the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of imposing any duty and for Congress to explicitly approve any new tariffs within 60 days. Four additional Republicans have signed on as co-sponsors to that bill. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said he plans to introduce a companion bill to the bipartisan Senate legislation. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), the top Democrat on the House Ag Committee, has been vocal in her criticism of Trump’s recent tariff policies, expressing deep concern over their potential impact on American agriculture. She asserts that the administration’s approach is detrimental to farmers, workers, and consumers alike. She emphasizes that increasing input costs, limiting farmers’ access to export markets, and raising grocery prices for middle-class families is not a viable strategy. She warns that initiating trade wars places family farmers at risk of retaliatory measures. In a letter to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Craig, along with other Democratic members of the House Ag Committee, expressed concerns over the administration’s erratic tariff policies, which they believe have sown uncertainty and chaos throughout the agricultural sector. They argue that the administration’s current stance on trade policy is disadvantageous for both farmers and the broader American public. — Cruz warns Trump tariffs could trigger Republican “bloodbath” in 2026. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), a usually reliable ally of President Donald Trump, delivered a stark warning on his podcast, criticizing the administration’s tariff escalation strategy. Cruz cautioned that long-term trade duties could derail the U.S. economy and spell disaster for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. “It would destroy jobs here at home and do real damage to the U.S. economy if we had tariffs everywhere,” Cruz said. His remarks came as the U.S. stock market suffered a two-day selloff and oil prices plunged, sending further shockwaves through trade-heavy states like Texas. The senator pointed to rising inflation, market instability, and industry-specific pain — especially in auto manufacturing — as consequences of extended tariffs. One auto executive told Cruz that tariffs could hike vehicle prices by $4,500 as early as June. Economic impact: Cruz linked the tariff policy to inflation and job loss, particularly in Texas, which accounts for 16% of U.S. trade. Political fallout: He warned of a possible GOP “wipeout,” suggesting Democrats could retake the House and possibly the Senate in 2026. Internal GOP dissent: Cruz joins four other Republican senators who have sided with Democrats on tariff oversight. A bipartisan bill would now require congressional approval before new tariffs can be enacted. Oil and trade woes: Texas oil prices slumped as OPEC boosted output, compounding fears over weakened global demand amid tariff-driven slowdowns. Cruz said Trump could still score a political “home run” by using tariffs as leverage to eliminate broader trade barriers, but he expressed concern that many business leaders haven’t realized how entrenched tariffs have become in Trump’s economic agenda. “The business community has systematically underestimated how much President Trump and the Trump administration view tariffs as an ongoing, permanent feature of our economic policy,” Cruz warned. Comments: It seems a bit early for such dire warnings as mid-term elections come Nov. 3, 2026. As one Washington contact informed: “Putting election politics aside (which I think are premature anyway) what do you (or what does anyone else) think the solution is: (a) try to move TPA and trade agreements which is likely to be unsuccessful; (b) pursue the kind of agreements that Biden pursued that do not create market access but may make improvements around the edges (phytosanitary, etc.), or (c) pursue Trump’s approach which is to try and force countries to the table to even the playing field? I’m not claiming I know all the answers, but I see that as the big question people smarter than me need to grapple with.” — “Hands Off!” protests surge nationwide in response to Trump/Musk agenda. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered across all 50 U.S. states and six countries on Saturday as part of the “Hands Off!” protests — one of the largest single-day mobilizations since President Donald Trump resumed office in January. Over 1,200 events took place, spanning cities in Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Mexico, and Portugal. The protests, coordinated by over 150 advocacy groups including Indivisible, MoveOn, Greenpeace, and Planned Parenthood Action Fund, target sweeping changes introduced by the Trump administration and Elon Musk, who now heads the Department of Government Efficiency. Key grievances include: · Deep cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs Organizers describe these moves as a “hostile takeover” of public systems and civil rights by billionaire elites. The flagship rally on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. drew thousands, with speakers from the ACLU, Human Rights Campaign, and members of Congress such as Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) calling for accountability, transparency, and protections for marginalized communities. Despite White House assurances that reforms are intended to boost efficiency and reduce waste, critics argue they’ve disproportionately harmed vulnerable Americans while centralizing power among wealthy allies. — Rollins heads to Vietnam amid Trump tariff tease. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced plans to visit Vietnam shortly after President Trump hinted at a possible trade agreement that could spare the Southeast Asian nation from steep U.S. tariffs. Rollins posted on X Friday, saying she is heading to Vietnam and reaffirmed her commitment to supporting American farmers, though she did not disclose a travel date. Her trip follows Trump’s comments earlier that day about a phone call with Vietnamese President To Lam. According to Trump, Lam is willing to reduce duties on U.S. goods to 0% to avoid a tariff war. Trump also floated the idea of a future meeting with Lam. The Trump administration announced a new wave of sweeping tariffs — including a 46% levy on Vietnamese exports, one of the highest in the package. Vietnam plays a major role in the global supply chain for apparel and footwear, making it a key partner for U.S. brands like Nike and Lululemon. Stocks of companies with significant operations in Vietnam rose on Friday after Trump’s tariff remarks suggested room for negotiation. — Fed Chair Powell warns of tariff-fueled risks: “Too early” for rate cuts. At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a measured but cautionary address on Friday, April 4, outlining the U.S. economic outlook and the Fed’s policy stance amid rising trade tensions. Economic outlook: Growth holds, but clouds gather. Powell described the economy as “solid,” yet acknowledged increasing risks stemming from the Trump administration’s newly announced tariffs. “Hard data suggest slower but stable growth,” Powell said, “but surveys of households and businesses show dimming expectations and heightened uncertainty.” He noted that inflation has eased from post-pandemic peaks, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 2.5% over the past year, while core PCE — excluding food and energy — stood at 2.8%. Tariffs and inflation: Risks of stagflation. Powell did not mince words on the implications of the latest tariff hikes. “The economic consequences of these new tariffs are likely to be larger than initially anticipated,” he warned. “There’s a risk they may contribute to stagflation — a combination of stagnant growth and rising prices.” He stressed that while some inflationary impact from tariffs may be temporary, persistent effects are possible, particularly if trading partners retaliate or costs are quickly passed on to consumers. “It is vital that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored,” Powell added, “to prevent a one-time price increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.” Monetary policy: A deliberate approach. Despite mounting pressure, Powell confirmed the Federal Reserve will maintain a “wait-and-see” approach to interest rates. “It’s too early to determine the appropriate path for monetary policy,” Powell stated, signaling caution in the face of mixed economic signals. While markets have priced in five potential rate cuts later this year, Powell was clear that the Fed won’t move without more clarity. “We are committed to our dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. We must avoid exacerbating either inflation or unemployment.” Bottom line: With global markets on edge and domestic uncertainty rising, Powell concluded by reaffirming the Fed’s mission and cautious strategy: “We are watching closely. Elevated inflation or unemployment can harm communities and businesses alike. Our decisions must be guided by data and the evolving economic landscape.” So as the U.S. navigates another round of trade-related shocks, the Fed appears determined to stay steady — even if the road ahead is anything but. — Bayer seeks Supreme court relief over $1.25 million Roundup verdict; legal battle continues as 67,000 cancer-related claims remain pending. Bayer AG is turning to the U.S. Supreme Court in a bid to overturn a $1.25 million verdict related to its Roundup weedkiller, escalating its effort to end years of costly litigation tied to the product, Bloomberg News reports. The German pharmaceutical and chemical giant, which acquired Monsanto in 2018 for $63 billion, asked the high court Friday to review a 2023 St. Louis jury ruling that awarded cancer patient John Durnell $1.25 million in compensatory damages. Durnell was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma after using Roundup beginning in 1996. No punitive damages were awarded. Bayer has faced about 67,000 claims alleging that Roundup causes cancer, and has set aside $16 billion to resolve them—of which $10 billion has already been spent. A recent Georgia jury awarded more than $2 billion to another plaintiff, a decision Bayer also plans to appeal. In its Supreme Court filing, Bayer is challenging what it calls conflicting rulings in lower courts regarding whether federal pesticide regulations should override state-level failure-to-warn laws. EPA maintains that glyphosate, Roundup’s active ingredient, poses no health risk when used as directed. While Bayer hopes a favorable Supreme Court ruling could sharply limit future lawsuits, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the remaining cases could still cost the company up to $8 billion. Bayer’s stock is down 27% over the past year, and the litigation has hampered CEO Bill Anderson’s broader restructuring efforts. The case Bayer is appealing is Durnell v. Monsanto, No. ED 112410, Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District (St. Louis). |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Tariffs will remain the focus of Washington DC. Some of the new U.S. tariffs announced last week went into effect Saturday, April 5 (base 10%) and higher reciprocal tariffs take effect Wednesday, April 9.
— Trade war fallout: Trump administration eyes new farmer aid package amid tariff turmoil. As global trade tensions escalate, the Trump administration is weighing a fresh bailout package for U.S. farmers who face deepening financial strain from retaliatory tariffs — particularly from China, which just imposed a 34% duty on American imports.
Farmers in the crosshairs. With planting season underway and commodity prices already under pressure, agricultural leaders are warning of a looming crisis. Soybean prices alone have dropped nearly 20% over the past year, and more than 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports — now under direct threat.
Trump’s newly announced 10% base tariff on all imports (except for Canada and Mexico) — and even steeper penalties on certain nations — has triggered swift retaliation abroad, including the broad Chinese measures announced Friday. The base credit move was taken to keep countries from trying to circumvent the tariffs by trans-shipping goods through other countries to avoid the higher tariffs.
Pending relief on the table. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) confirmed early talks with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, noting: “We’re talking about, looking at it.” However, Rollins cautioned that any concrete plan might not emerge until summer or early fall, once the economic impact becomes clearer. Rollins added: “We are setting up the infrastructure that if, in fact, we have some economic consequences… we will have programs in place to solve for that.”
USDA recently began distributing $10 billion in farm aid approved by Congress last Dec. 21. But the next round could be significantly larger, depending on how the trade battle unfolds.
Many farmers emphasize they would prefer fair trade over federal checks. Still, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau, said the stakes are real: “Increased tariffs threaten the economic sustainability of farmers who have lost money on most major crops for the past three years.”
What’s next? The size and scope of potential federal relief remain uncertain. But with China’s latest move and rising equipment and input costs, U.S. agriculture appears headed for another rough season — unless either the trade war eases or Washington steps in again.
A possible trade war farmer aid package could take several forms. During the U.S./China trade war in Trump’s first term, USDA mostly tapped the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) for what turned out to be around $28 billion in aid. It currently contains around $15 billion in funding, out of the $30 billion maximum borrowing authority. However, with farm program payments ahead using CCC funds, the total remaining will be around $5 billion at the end of the fiscal year Sept. 30. Congress usually replenished the CCC funds several months into a new fiscal year, but some lawmakers are already saying they may try to temper or oppose the refunding. That sets up other aid possibilities such as tapping farm and food support under USDA’s Section 32 account, detailed in the next item.
— What is Section 32? Created in 1935, Section 32 of the Agricultural Adjustment Act is a permanent funding mechanism aimed at supporting American agriculture. Officially known as the “Funds for Strengthening Markets, Income, and Supply,” it provides direct support to producers of agricultural commodities not typically covered under broader farm programs — such as fruits, vegetables, meats, poultry, and fish.
Core missions of Section 32. The law outlines three main objectives:
- Promote the export of U.S. agricultural goods.
- Boost domestic consumption by reducing surpluses.
- Restore farmers’ purchasing power through direct payments.
How it is funded. Section 32 receives a permanent appropriation equal to 30% of the previous year’s customs receipts. The allocation breaks down as follows:
- 30% of fishery-related customs receipts go to the Department of Commerce.
- A portion retained by USDA (adjusted for inflation) for farmer support and food aid.
- The remainder goes to USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) to fund child nutrition programs.
Commodity procurement in action. USDA uses Section 32 funds in two key ways:
- Entitlement purchases: These are legally mandated purchases for school meals and other nutrition programs, planned in advance based on local needs.
- Contingency (emergency) purchases: When farm prices drop, USDA can step in under Clause 2 to buy surplus goods. These “bonus commodities” are distributed to schools, childcare centers, and food banks, providing dual support to both producers and food-insecure populations.
Comments: With USDA getting 30% of tariff-related funds, those coming funds could be billions of dollars. However, a small share is available for maintaining farmer parity (appropriators in the past have limited it to $350 million) with as previously noted most of the funding flowing to the child nutrition programs administered by USDA. The other 70% flows elsewhere and farm-state lawmakers have never had success tapping into it. Congress will or should debate how best to scale and direct the growing tariff-related funds, balancing farm support with nutritional and other needs. With more funding via tariff-related action coming into child nutrition programs, that frees up funding for other programs if appropriators so choose. Or appropriators could increase the amount of tariff-related funding going for farmer aid.
We have previously discussed another potential avenue of farmer aid via a big boost in current reference prices for farm program crops that could be part of a coming budget reconciliation measure. Farmer aid outside of program crops could come from CCC funding and/or Section 32 funding if modified.
Upshot: There are other avenues of trade-related aid funding, if Congress makes the necessary changes.
— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the White House on Monday. Israel faces a 17% reciprocal U.S. tariff despite removing their own tariffs on the United States.
— Senate Republicans clear key hurdle for Trump’s tax plan in early Saturday morning vote. In a dramatic early Saturday morning session, Senate Republicans passed a pivotal budget framework aimed at extending and expanding former President Trump’s tax cuts. The 51–48 vote came despite internal GOP divisions and fierce Democratic opposition. The framework now sets the stage for major fiscal negotiations.
What passed:
- Up to $5.3 trillion in net tax cuts over a decade, including:
- Extensions of expiring 2017 tax cuts
- Potential eliminations of taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits
- Just $4 billion in immediate spending cuts, with more promised in a later bill
- Framework allows fast-track reconciliation — avoiding Senate filibuster
Internal GOP rifts exposed. While most Republicans held the line, Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Susan Collins (Maine) voted against the measure. Paul objected to the accompanying $4–5 trillion debt-limit increase, calling it too large. His attempt late Friday to reduce that debt-limit increase to $500 billion failed on a 5-94 vote. Collins and a small group of Republicans also expressed concern over proposed Medicaid cuts, particularly the House’s $880 billion target. “I don’t see how you can get to that amount without cutting Medicaid benefits,” said Collins. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said deferring the debate over spending cuts “doesn’t make it go away,” signaling more clashes to come.
Dems go on offense. With no real power to block the framework, Democrats used the vote-a-rama session to force tough amendment votes on Medicaid, Social Security, and nutrition assistance. While some Republicans crossed party lines on individual issues, none of the amendments passed.
The House Republican leadership is tentatively planning to bring up the House-Senate budget resolution in the Rules Committee Monday. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said the Senate’s reconciliation instructions are “unserious and disappointing,” raising concerns about the impact on the debt. Arrington said the current policy baseline, which the Senate used to zero out the cost of the tax cuts, “sets a dangerous precedent.”
Of note: House Republican leadership sent a Dear Colleague (link) to GOP lawmakers urging them to support the House-Senate budget resolution this week.
Key issues ahead: Medicaid cuts, debt ceiling mechanics, and reconciling House-Senate differences.
Of note: Trump’s ongoing influence looms large — especially after privately telling Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) he would not sign a bill that cuts Medicaid benefits.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Focus: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testify this week (Greer before both the House and Senate). Meanwhile, on Monday the NPPC has a media briefing on the state of the pork industry.
Monday, April 7
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivers virtual remarks on Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.
· State of the U.S. pork industry. National Pork Producers Council media briefing on the state of the pork industry.
· Trump economic agenda. Hudson Institute discussion on “The Trump Administration’s Economic Agenda.”
· Trump and the rule of law. House and Senate Judiciary Committee members hold a hearing on “Restoring Accountability: Exposing Trump’s Attacks on the Rule of Law.”
· DOGE savings. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a discussion on “How Much Money Is DOGE Saving Taxpayers?”
Tuesday, April 8
· Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.
· Nomination hearing: USDA. Senate Ag Committee hearing on the nominations of Stephen Vaden to be deputy USDA secretary; and Tyler Clarkson to be general counsel at USDA.
· Trump Trade policy. Senate Finance Committee hearing on “The President’s 2025 Trade Policy Agenda.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testifies.
· SNAP. House Ag Committee hearing on “The Power of Work: Expanding Opportunity through SNAP.”
· Food, nutrition and health. Health Affairs holds a briefing on Health Policy, focusing on “food, nutrition, and health.”
· Tariffs and Trade. Bipartisan Policy Center discussion on “Tariffs, Tweets, and Trade: Decoding the Trump Administration’s Global Economic Playbook.”
· China trade policies. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) holds a discussion on “Countering China’s Trade Practices With Investment Tax Policy.”
· Taxes on small businesses. House Small Business Committee and Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee joint hearing on “Prosperity on Main Street: Keeping Taxes Low for Small Businesses.”
· Transportation infrastructure. House Transportation and Infrastructure Aviation Subcommittee hearing on “America Builds: Airport Infrastructure, Safety, and Regulatory Environment.”
· Federal real estate. House Oversight and Government Reform Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee field hearing on “Federal Foreclosure: Reducing the Federal Real Estate Portfolio.”
· FOIA. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “The Freedom of Information Act: Perspectives from Public Requesters.”
· Treasury debt and monetary system. House Financial Services Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity Task Force Subcommittee hearing on “US Treasury Debt in the Monetary System.”
· 2024 elections. House Administration Elections Subcommittee hearing on “Revisiting the 2024 Election with Secretaries of State.”
· Nuclear shipbuilding. House Armed Services Seapower Subcommittee hearing on “The State of Nuclear Shipbuilding.”
· Emerging biotechnology report. House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing on “Final Report of the National Security Commission for Emerging Biotechnology.”
Wednesday, April 9
· Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
· Review of USDA programs. House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on “Review of USDA Programs.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins testifies.
· Trump trade policy. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on “The Trump Administration’s 2025 Trade Policy Agenda.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testifies.
· FDA oversight. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on “Restoring Trust in FDA: Rooting Out Illicit Products.”
· Future of digital assets. House Ag Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: On-Chain Tools for an Off-Chain World.”
· U.S./China competition. Senate (Special Committee on) Aging and House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee joint hearing on “Financial Aggression: How the Chinese Communist Party Exploits American Retirees and Undermines National Security.”
· Economic outlook and tariffs. Economic Club of Washington, D.C. discussion on “the 2025 economic outlook amid global uncertainty, current labor trends, and the impact of tariffs short and long term.”
· Nomination votes: OPM, OMB. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Scott Kupor to be director of the Office of Personnel Management; and Eric Ueland to be deputy director for management in the Office of Management and Budget.
· Nomination votes: EPA, Fish & Wildlife. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Sean Donahue to be an assistant EPA administrator; Jessica Kramer to be assistant EPA administrator for water; and Brian Nesvik to be director of the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
· FY 2026 Budget: CBO, GAO. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “Budget Hearing — Government Accountability Office, Congressional Budget Office, and United States Government Publishing Office.”
· Security laws in the digital age. House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: Aligning the U.S. Securities Laws for the Digital Age.”
· Immigration and crime. House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing on “Sanctuary Jurisdictions: Magnet for Migrants, Cover for Criminals.”
· Highway infrastructure. House Transportation and Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on “America Builds: A Review of Our Nation’s Transit Policies and Programs.”
· AI, data and government efficiency. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Reducing Waste, Fraud and Abuse Through Innovation: How AI & Data Can Improve Government Efficiency.”
· Meta oversight. Senate Judiciary Crime and Counterterrorism Subcommittee hearing on “A Time for Truth: Oversight of Meta’s Foreign Relations and Representations to the United States Congress.”
· Outlook for diplomacy. The Common Good holds a virtual discussion on “What
· Military food programs. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of Military Food Programs.”
Thursday, April 10
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman nomination hearing to be Fed Vice Chair for Supervision. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
· North American agriculture. Center for Strategic and International Studies symposium on “Cultivating Competitiveness: Positioning North America as a Strategic Agricultural Bloc.”
· Farm Credit situation. Farm Credit Administration meeting on the quarterly report on economic conditions and Farm Credit System condition and performance.
· Nomination hearing: Energy, BLM. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the nominations of Preston Griffith to be Energy undersecretary; Dario Gil to be Energy undersecretary for science; and Kathleen Sgamma to be director of the Bureau of Land Management.
· Nomination hearing: Commerce, Treasury. Senate Finance Committee hearing on the nominations of William Kimmitt to be Commerce undersecretary for international trade; and Kenneth Kies to be an assistant Treasury secretary.
· Nomination hearing: Fed, others. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to be Fed Vice Chair for Supervision and other nominations.
· Energy and AI. International Energy Agency (IEA) virtual discussion on a new report, “Energy and Artificial Intelligence (AI).”
· Immigration and trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conference on “Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration.”
· Daylight savings. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on “If I Could Turn Back Time: Should We Lock the Clock?”
· Small businesses. The Securities and Exchange Commission 44th annual Small Business Forum.
Friday, April 11
· Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
· Crypto trading regs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) holds a meeting of the SEC’s Crypto Task Force for a discussion on “Between a Block and a Hard Place: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading.”
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
A Federal Reserve official speaks each day this week and what they say regarding the increased Trump tariffs will be important as this topic was addressed Friday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (see related item in lead Blue Box items).
Monday, April 7
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivers virtual remarks on Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.
- Consumer Credit
Tuesday, April 8
· Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.
· NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Wednesday, April 9
- Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
- Wholesale Trade | FOMC Minutes
Thursday, April 10
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman nomination hearing to be Fed Vice Chair for Supervision. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
- Jobless Claims | CPI | Treasury Budget
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Money Supply
Friday, April 11
- Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
- PPI-FD | Consumer Sentiment
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
The focus will be the return Monday of USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, and Thursday’s monthly WASDE report. It will be interesting to see what impacts USDA will note relative to additional tariff information and how they may impact exports ahead. Most of the impacts could be delayed into the next marketing years.
Monday, April 7
Ag reports and events:
· Export Inspections | U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update | Crop Progress
Energy reports and events:
· China’s Sungrow Power hosts renewable energy summit in Hefei; runs through Wednesday
· Middle East Energy conference, Dubai; runs through Wednesday
· S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Fujairah Bunkering & Fuel Oil Forum, United Arab Emirates; runs through Wednesday
· African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) conference, Cape Town; runs through Wednesday
· EU Energy Summit, Brussels; runs through Tuesday
· International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee meets in London; expected to finalize draft legal text for rules to cut greenhouse gas emissions from shipping; runs through Friday
· Holiday: Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia
Tuesday, April 8
Ag reports and events:
· EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Energy reports and events:
- API U.S. inventory report
- ASEAN Investment Conference, Kuala Lumpur; runs through Wednesday
- Wind Europe Conference, Copenhagen; runs through Thursday
- BTC programs due (May)
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Wednesday, April 9
Ag reports and events:
· Broiler Hatchery | Crop Production Historical Track Records
Energy reports and events:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Weekly Ethanol Production
- Handelsblatt Public Utilities Conference, Berlin; runs through Thursday
- Columbia Global Energy Summit, New York
- Holiday: Argentina, several countries observing Eid Al-fitr including Indonesia
Thursday, April 10
Ag reports and events:
- CFTC Commitments of Traders
- China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
- EuroGrain Exchange 2025, Bucharest, Romania, day 1
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data on stockpiles, exports and production
- Brazil’s Conab releases output, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
- Malaysia’s April 1-10 palm oil exports
- Export Sales | Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production | WASDE | Meat Price Spreads | Crop Production
Energy reports and events:
- EIA Natural Gas Report
- Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
- International Energy Agency Energy & AI report
- Holiday: India
Friday, April 11
Ag reports and events:
- EuroGrain Exchange 2025, Bucharest, Romania, day 2
- FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
- Season-Average Price Forecasts | Wheat Data NASS: Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
- ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
- Baker-Hughes Rig Count
| KEY DATES IN APRIL |
7: Crop Progress | Agricultural Trade Data Update
9: Crop Production Historical Track Records
10: CPI | Crop Production | WASDE
10: The Masters (golf)
11: PPI-FD | Consumer Sentiment
13: Passover begins
14: Crop Progress
15: 2024 income taxes due; last day for 2024 IRS, HSA contributions; first quarter 2025 taxes due
16: Retail Sales
17: Housing Starts and Permits; Cattle on Feed; National Hemp Report
18: Good Friday
20: Easter
21: Crop Progress | Chickens and Eggs
21: Boston Marathon
22: Existing Home Sales | Milk Production
23: New Home Sales
24: Durable Goods Orders | Cold Storage
25: Food Price Outlook | Consumer Sentiment
28: Crop Progress
29: International Trade in Goods | JOLTS | Consumer Confidence | Meat Animals - Prod., Disp., and Income | Milk - Prod., Disp., and Income | Poultry - Production and Value
30: ADP Employment | Employment Cost Index | GDP | Personal Income and Outlays incl. PCE Price Index | Ag Prices
| LINKS |
Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Eggs/HPAI | NEC task force on HPAI, egg prices | Options for HPAI/Egg prices |Trump tariffs | Greer responses to lawmakers | Trump reciprocal tariffs |