Trump Cabinet Nominee Hearings Begin | Inflation Reports Key for Fed Rate Decision

45Z info | Biden’s farewell address | Greenland open to dialogue | IMF warns | Ag sector concerns | Update on farmer economic & disaster aid | More Trump nominees

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January 12, 2025 11:24 AM

The Week Ahead: Jan. 12, 2025

— Biden admin. 45Z announcement: more questions than answers. U.S. biofuels and corn groups criticized the overall guidance as lacking details on what qualifies for tax credits (link to our special report). Geoff Cooper, chief executive officer of ethanol trade group Renewable Fuels Association, said it fell short of expectations and doesn’t give producers of corn-based U.S. ethanol the certainty they seek. Emily Skor, CEO of ethanol lobbying group Growth Energy, said the guidance “still lacks the critical details that are needed to help ensure that American biofuel producers and their farm partners can lead the world in clean fuel production.” The National Corn Growers Association said more clarity is needed about the specific environmental practices that will be required for accessing the credit. “What a missed opportunity for growers,” said President Kenneth Hartman Jr., an Illinois farmer.

The only real news from the Treasury Dept. seems to be that foreign origin used cooking oil will not qualify for 45Z tax incentives under the so-called GREET model, a Department of Energy tool used to determine the full sweep of greenhouse gases emitted from the transportation and energy industries. But some question whether the CORSIA model could be used for imported UCO, but it cannot be measured for GHG reductions under the 45ZCF-GREET model. The globally accepted Corsia standard established by the United Nations governing body for aviation, green jet fuel made with foreign feedstocks would have access to the credit, some note.

Others say UCOs still qualify for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program and California’s LCFS. Fuel made with UCO is highly valued in low-carbon fuel markets like California because of its relatively small carbon footprint. Some details and alerts:

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Under the RFS program administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), used cooking oil is an approved feedstock for producing renewable fuel. Specifically: UCO falls under the “Biomass-Based Diesel” category of the RFS. Fuels produced from UCO must demonstrate a life cycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction of at least 50% compared to petroleum diesel. Biofuel producers using UCO can generate Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which are credits used for RFS compliance.

California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
UCO also qualifies under California’s LCFS program: It is considered a low-carbon intensity feedstock for renewable diesel production. UCO-derived renewable diesel can generate LCFS credits due to its lower carbon intensity compared to petroleum diesel. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has approved fuel pathways for renewable diesel produced from UCO. However, it’s important to note that there are some recent developments and potential changes regarding UCO in these programs:
· EPA has been conducting audits of supply chain documentation for imported UCO used in renewable fuel production. This is to ensure the legitimacy of UCO sources and prevent potential fraud.
· CARB is proposing new requirements for feedstock traceability and sustainability certification, although these may focus more on crop-based feedstocks rather than waste oils like UCO.
· There are discussions about potentially capping the use of certain biofuel feedstocks in the LCFS, but these proposals have primarily focused on crop-based oils rather than waste oils like UCO.

Soybean oil futures for March jumped by the exchange limit in Chicago on Friday, surging 7%, the most since June 2023.

— Biden admin. backs renewable fuels with $1.44 billion loan guarantee. The Biden administration approved a $1.44 billion loan guarantee for Calumet to expand its renewable fuels plant in Great Falls, Montana. Announced by the Energy Department, the financing — totaling $1.44 billion in principal and $233 million in capitalized interest — will support the production of sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, and renewable naphtha using vegetable oils, fats, and greases.

Of note: The Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office may be killed under the Trump administration, meaning any deals not closed by Jan. 20 could be in jeopardy.

— President Biden to deliver farewell and foreign policy speeches in final week. President Joe Biden will give two major speeches during his final week in office, including a farewell address from the Oval Office on Wednesday, Jan. 15, at 8 p.m. Eastern, the White House announced Friday.

On Monday, Jan. 13, he will deliver a foreign policy speech from the State Department, highlighting his administration’s efforts to “strengthen America and lead the world.” The time for Monday’s address has not yet been announced.

These events precede the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump is also set to hold a rally at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 19.

— Mayorkas issues sweeping immigration orders days before Trump takes office. Outgoing DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas issued extensive immigration measures shortly before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. These include:

· Temporary Protected Status (TPS) extensions: El Salvador (through 2026), Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela saw TPS extensions due to conflict, political instability, or environmental crises. Collectively, these measures impact hundreds of thousands of individuals already in the U.S.
· Expanded H-1B and H-2B visa programs: Rules were finalized to increase foreign worker numbers in specialized and seasonal industries, despite criticism regarding labor impacts on U.S. workers.
· Visa Waiver additions: Romania joined the program, enabling short-term travel to the U.S. without a visa, aligning with existing waivers for other nations.

The changes coincide with a record influx of illegal border crossings under the Biden administration and precede Trump’s planned mass deportation efforts.

— Greenland open to dialogue with Trump over territorial remarks. Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Egede, expressed openness to discussions with President-elect Donald Trump following Trump’s comments about potentially acquiring the territory. During a press conference, Egede stated he is “ready to talk” despite not currently being in touch with Trump, according to The Hill.

Egede acknowledged Greenland’s strategic significance, describing it as “a place that the Americans see as part of their world,” and emphasized the importance of cooperation and dialogue to work toward solutions, as noted by the New York Post.

Trump previously described U.S. control of Greenland as “an absolute necessity” for national security and global freedom. His past inquiries about purchasing the autonomous Danish territory, the world’s largest island with a population of 56,000, were rebuffed by Copenhagen during his first term.

Meanwhile, Denmark recently sent private messages to Trump’s team, expressing openness to discussions about enhancing security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, according to a report from Axios by Barak Ravid and David Lawler.

Why it matters: Trump’s suggestion that military force could be used to take control of Greenland, a territory under Danish sovereignty, alarmed Copenhagen and NATO allies. Greenland, with a population of 56,000, is autonomous, but Denmark handles its defense.

Trump has emphasized Greenland’s strategic importance for U.S. national security, especially concerning Russia and China. Don Jr.’s visit to Greenland this week, complete with MAGA hats, added to the intrigue.

Denmark’s messages clarified that Greenland is not for sale but signaled a willingness to accommodate other U.S. interests. The U.S. already maintains a military base in Greenland and operates under a 1951 defense agreement, allowing for the possibility of expanding U.S. forces there.

The Arctic’s strategic significance has increased due to its vast natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, and its geopolitical value. Russia and China’s growing influence in the Arctic is a major U.S. national security concern. The U.S. has been deepening ties with Greenland and the Faroe Islands to counter Russian and Chinese activities. Greenland hosts a key U.S. military base critical for missile warning and space surveillance. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic holds 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves. China’s “Polar Silk Road” strategy and Russia/China military cooperation in the Arctic highlight the region’s contested future.

The broader question remains whether Trump seeks a diplomatic agreement with Denmark or aims to make a historic acquisition of new U.S. territory.

— IMF warns of rising global rates amid Trump tariff concerns. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, cautioned that President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats are already driving up long-term borrowing costs globally. Speaking in Washington, Georgieva highlighted the unusual economic pattern of rising long-term rates paired with declining short-term rates, attributing this to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies.

Raising fears of supply disruptions. Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from both adversaries like China and allies such as Canada and Mexico have raised fears of supply-chain disruptions and inflation. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned earlier that such trade policies could cut global output by 0.5%.

The greenback’s recent strength and soaring global bond yields reflect market apprehension, with higher borrowing costs posing challenges for emerging markets and low-income nations. While the IMF anticipates steady global growth at around 3.2% in its updated forecast on Jan. 17, Georgieva noted regional disparities, with the U.S. performing better than expected, while the EU, India, and China face mounting pressures.

— Trump announced several new picks for top administration roles Saturday, including some deputy administrators who will lead agencies’ day-to-day operations if confirmed: Steven Bradbury as deputy Transportation secretary, Katharine MacGregor as deputy Interior secretary, David Fotouhi as deputy EPA administrator, James Danly as deputy Energy secretary, Casey Mulligan as chief counsel for advocacy at the Small Business Administration, and Paul Lawrence as deputy VA secretary.

— New York Times: Republicans made almost universal gains in mail voting during the 2024 election, eroding a key Democratic advantage in nearly every state that tracks party registration, according to a data analysis by the New York Times. “The Republican rise in the use of mail voting was almost always accompanied by a drop in registered Democrats casting a mail ballot, allowing Republicans to make significant inroads in battleground states like Pennsylvania, red states like Florida and blue states like Connecticut.”

WASHINGTON FOCUS

The House and Senate are in session this week. Several confirmation hearings are on tap in the Senate (link) as noted in detail below.

— Trump Cabinet nominees face upcoming Senate confirmation hearings. President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are set to testify before the U.S. Senate this week as Republicans aim to secure their confirmations shortly after the Jan. 20 inauguration. Controversial picks such as former Fox News host Pete Hegseth for Defense and vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services (HHS) are among those under scrutiny.

Key hearing dates include (more hearings and details in Other Events & Hearings):

Pete Hegseth (Defense): Jan. 14 before the Senate Armed Services Committee, amid allegations of misconduct.
Scott Bessent (Treasury): Jan. 16 before the Senate Finance Committee, with minimal expected opposition.
Doug Burgum (Interior): Jan. 14, with added responsibilities over energy strategy.
Lee Zeldin (EPA): Jan. 16 before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee/
Kristi Noem (Homeland Security): Jan. 15, following recent domestic security threats.
Pam Bondi (Attorney General): Jan. 15-16, to oversee Trump’s legal agenda.
Marco Rubio (State): Jan. 15, anticipated smooth approval.
Chris Wright (Energy): Jan. 15, with a pro-oil stance.
Sean Duffy (Transportation): Jan. 15.
Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador): Jan. 16 (tentative).

Nominees awaiting dates include Howard Lutnick (Commerce), Brooke Rollins (USDA), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor), and Tulsi Gabbard (DNI).

— Update on American Relief Act provisions for producers. In late December, Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed the American Relief Act, allocating approximately $31 billion in assistance for producers. This includes $21 billion for production loss assistance covering 2023 and 2024, and $10 billion for economic assistance targeting 2024 crop year losses (payments no later than March 21).

As further details emerge regarding fund distribution, high-level summaries of key provisions are available courtesy of Combest, Sell and Associates (economic aid) and (disaster aid). Additionally, the American Farm Bureau Federation has published an analysis of the year-end package and its impact on producers (link).

— What the ag sector is talking about. Ag industry stakeholders (farmers, ranchers, agribusiness execs, etc.) are upbeat about changes in Washington but nearly all of them are also apprehensive about potential policy moves ahead, based on talks with and to the ag industry since Nov. 5 elections. Of note:

Reasons for being upbeat include the $10 billion in economic aid Congress passed late last year and President Joe Biden signed into law. While those aid payments to eligible producers are expected no later than March 21 and will help cash flow new-crop plantings, some producers have specific questions about how the payouts will be calculated and they await official program implementation details from USDA.
Disaster-impacted farmers and ranchers are humbled about the $21 billion in ag disaster aid signed into law. They hope the program is implemented in a more farmer-friendly fashion than the way USDA implemented the most recent disaster aid programs.
Another positive is a belief that the 2017 Trump tax cuts will be extended. Ag industry positives include the corporate tax rate, pass-through language, estate tax provisions, capital gains, and depreciation details.
Lower interest rates versus last year are another positive, but some producers now think further rates cuts will be sparse following recent jobs report numbers and sticky inflation. The U.S. economy is more robust and financial conditions easier than the Federal Reserve has been expecting, which means interest rates won’t be coming down as rapidly as farmers, investors (and Donald Trump) have hoped.
Many farmers think the incoming Trump administration will focus on production agriculture and not equity-related issues that were the attention of the Biden administration.
A more benefit vs cost approach to new regulations is expected to return via Trump 2.0 and that gets a farmer-friendly response. But they want to know how a new EPA administrator will treat the need for ag sector chemicals and what EPA will decide on the 2026 RFS. Another concern is what role will possible HHS Secretary RFK Jr. play relative to environmental and food policy regulations. Meanwhile, few farmers ask about USDA Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins because so little is known about her. The ag sector awaits her confirmation and how she manages USDA. There is keen ag interest in USDA officials chosen to lead various departments.

The ag sector has other concerns to temper their upbeat attitudes described above. They include:

The impact of Trump-threatened tariffs on all countries, including allies. Many wonder if Trump will follow through on his tariff threats and if so how, when and if countries impacted will retaliate against U.S. farm product exports. At dinner with House chairs at Mar-a-Lago Saturday night, Trump touted tariffs as being among the “most beautiful words” in the English language — and said they’ll raise a lot of revenue. The ag sector is aware of trade policy issues listed in the table below. Veteran industry officials continue to push new trade agreements and to significantly boost trade promotion program funding as part of a new farm bill.
The China hawks in Trump’s new Cabinet, if confirmed, raise farmers’ odds of an economic battle ahead between the two countries. But some ask if there could be a Phase Two agreement with China that could lessen the thorny trade policy differences. Some observers believe that a more practical Trump could make some deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Some ag sector stakeholders wonder if farm programs could be part of deficit and debt reduction announcements in the year and years ahead. Some recall that a prior GOP White House initially wanted to save around $3 billion via cuts to crop insurance subsidies, only to have that pulled back after intense lawmaker and farm group criticism.
Another concern: Will biofuel tax incentives be scaled back or completely halted. Others wonder if there will be year-round E15 after almost getting it legislatively last year.

Meanwhile, many producers ask about the chances of finally getting a new farm bill this year. They think a GOP-controlled White House, House and Senate could raise the odds of getting a new farm bill this year. But ag stakeholders wonder if and whether enough funding can be found to adequately improve the Title I farmer safety net, especially the need for higher reference prices.

— Senate names committee leadership, rosters. The Senators who will lead Standing Committees in the 119^thCongress were officially named upon the Senate’s approval of its organizing resolution. The official list is below. The full list of Committee assignments — for those that have been made — for all Senators may also be accessed here.

The full list of Senate Committee leaders:

Agriculture: Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Chairman; Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ranking Member
Appropriations: Susan Collins (R-Maine), Chairwoman; Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Ranking Member
Armed Services: Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Chairman; Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Ranking Member
Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs: Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Chairman; Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ranking Member
Budget: Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Chairman; Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Ranking Member
Commerce, Science, and Transportation: Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Chairman; Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Ranking Member
Energy and Natural Resources: Mike Lee (R-Utah), Chairman; Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Ranking Member
Environment and Public Works: Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Chairwoman; Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ranking Member
Finance: Mike Crapo (R-Id.), Chairman; Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Ranking Member
Foreign Relations: Jim Risch (R-Id.), Chairman; Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Ranking Member
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Chairman; Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Ranking Member
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Chairman; Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Ranking Member
Judiciary: Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Chairman; Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Ranking Member
Rules and Administration: Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Chairman; Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Ranking Member
Small Business and Entrepreneurship: Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chairman; Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Ranking Member
Veterans’ Affairs: Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Chairman; Richard Blumenthal (D-Ct.), Ranking Member

— Senate Ag Committee roster announced. The full roster of the Senate Agriculture Committee for the 119^th Congress:
Majority Members

John Boozman (R-Ark.), Chairman
Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)
John Hoeven (R-N.D.)
Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.)
Roger Marshall (R-Kan.)
Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.)
Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)
John Thune (R-S.D.)
Deb Fischer (R-Neb.)
Jerry Moran (R-Kan.)
Jim Justice (R-W.Va.)

Minority Members

Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ranking Member
Michael Bennet (D-Colo.)
Tina Smith (D-Minn.)
Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)
Cory Booker (D-N.J.)
Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.)
Peter Welch (D-Vt.)
John Fetterman (D-Pa.)
Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)
Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.)

— Many new congressional members & leaders. Half of the House’s 20 standing committees will have a new Chairman or ranking member, while 81% of the Senate’s standing committees will (13/16). New leaders and new members bring new agendas & perspectives, reshaping the public policy landscape and driving the discussion. (Source: Bruce Mehlman)

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, Jan. 13

· President Joe Biden delivers a foreign policy address at the State Department.
· Trade policy. International Food Policy Research Institute webinar, “Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead.”
· Energy outlook. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “The Forces That Are Shaping the World Energy Outlook.” S&P Global Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin delivers remarks.
· U.S./China climate relations. Brookings Institution discussion on “U.S./China climate relations: Innovation, competition, and global implications.”
· Decarbonization. Center for American Progress virtual discussion on “State Efforts to Decarbonize Key Industrial Sectors.”

Tuesday, Jan. 14
· Federal Reserve. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, San Francisco Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
· Nomination hearing: DOD. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the expected nomination of Peter Hegseth to be Defense secretary.
· Nomination hearing: Interior. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the nomination of Doug Burgum to be Interior secretary.
· Nomination hearing: VA. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Douglas Collins to be Veterans Affairs secretary.
· Trump tax cuts. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on “The Need to Make Permanent the Trump Tax Cuts for Working Families.”
· Trump administration first 100 days. Politico holds a Playbook discussion, on “The First 100 Days,” with leaders from the incoming Trump administration and Congress on the new administration’s policy agenda.
· Beltwide Cotton Conference, New Orleans, La., Jan 14-16.

Wednesday, Jan. 15
· Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
· Nomination hearing: Homeland Security. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Gov. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) to be Homeland Security secretary.
· Nomination hearing: Attorney General. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Pamela Jo Bondi to be attorney general of the United States.
· Nomination hearing: State Department. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be secretary of State.
· Nomination hearing: CIA. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on the nomination of John Ratcliffe to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
· Nomination hearing: Transportation. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on nomination of former Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., to be Transportation secretary.
· Nomination hearing: Energy. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the nomination of Chris Wright to be Energy secretary.
· Nomination hearing: OMB. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Russell Vought to be director of the Office of Management and Budget.
· EU/Mercosur trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “EU/Mercosur Trade Agreement: A Long Night’s Journey into Day?”
· Report on the economy. Brookings Institution discussion on “The 2025 Economic Report of the President.”
· Trade issues and outlook. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “20 Risks and Trends for 2025.”
· Remote work. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing on “The Stay-at-Home Federal Workforce: Another Biden-Harris Legacy.”
· Transportation network. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing on “America Builds: The State of the Nation’s Transportation System.”
· Energy outlook. United States Energy Association virtual press briefing “Rough Road Ahead for Electric Utilities in 2025.”
· Rural infrastructure. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “Unlocking infrastructure investment in distressed rural places: Understanding the unique role of the federally chartered regional commissions.”

Thursday, Jan. 16
· Nomination hearing: HUD. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Eric Scott Turner to be Housing and Urban Development secretary.
· Nomination hearing: EPA. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.
· Nomination hearing: U.S. representative to the UN. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be US representative to the UN.
· Nomination hearing: Attorney General. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Pamela Jo Bondi to be attorney general of the United States.
· Nomination hearing: Treasury. Senate Finance Committee on the nomination of Scott Bessent to be Treasury secretary.
· USMCA review. Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and Canada Institute virtual discussion on a new report, “A Practical Guide to the USMCA 2026 Review: 3 Principles, 5 Rules for Success.”
· Immigration. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on “Remain in Mexico.”
· Nuclear energy outlook. International Energy Agency virtual media briefing on a new report, “The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy.”
· USTR hearing on Nicaragua. U.S. Trade Representative meeting for a hearing on Nicaragua’s acts, policies, and practices related to labor rights, human rights, and rule of law.
· Foreign policy issues. Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “The Future of Economic Statecraft.”
· U.S./EU relations. Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Sciences Po School of Management and Impact hold virtual discussion on “The EU/U.S. Relationship at a Crossroads.”
· Deficit, debt and extending tax cuts. National Economists Club luncheon discussion on “Grappling with the Nation’s Fiscal Challenges: The 2025 Outlook,” focusing on “the deficit, debt limit, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.”
· U.S./China relations. Cato Institute virtual forum on “Trump, Biden, and the Future of U.S./China Policy.”
· Resolution on securing the border. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee markup of a resolution expressing the sense of the Senate that the President of the United States possesses the authority under current law to take immediate and necessary action to secure the southwest border of the United States, a motion to authorize the Chairman to issue subpoenas for records, and committee rules of procedure.

Friday, Jan. 17
· Trump administration outlook. Clare Boothe Luce Center for Conservative Women holds a discussion on “What to Expect from the Trump Administration.”

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

Focus: U.S. reports inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday, key updates are due on China’s ailing economy, and earnings season arrives via major Wall Street bank earnings. Updated U.S. inflation data lands two weeks before the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its next meeting on interest rates. Policymakers cut rates by a quarter point when they met in December. The U.S. economic calendar will also see the Fed Beige Book on regional U.S. economic activity, and the retail sales update for December 2024.

Monday, Jan. 13

Treasury Budget
China trade data

Tuesday, Jan. 14

Federal Reserve. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, San Francisco Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
PPI-FD
Core CPI
World Bank to release semiannual Global Economic Prospects report.
Goldman Sachs global macro conference is held in Hong Kong through Jan. 15.

Wednesday, Jan. 15

Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
Earnings: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo and BlackRock earnings.
World Economic Forum publishes its annual global risks report.
CPI
Empire State Manufacturing
Beige Book

Thursday, Jan. 16

Jobless Claims
Retail Sales
Business Inventories
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
Import & Export Prices
Housing Market Index
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings.

Friday, Jan. 17

China GDP, property prices, retail sales, industrial production. China is set to release fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product along with December economic data. President Xi Jinping has said the country’s economy grew by about 5% in 2024.
Housing Starts
Industrial Production

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Ag focus: China’s initial December trade data, covering imports of soybean, edible oil, and rubber, will be released on Monday. Conab provides an update Tuesday on Brazil’s corn and soybean crops. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will host a seminar in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday. Additionally, cocoa grinding figures are set to be published on Thursday, providing further insights into global commodity trends.

Energy: The three most prominent oil forecasters — the IEA, OPEC and the EIA — will publish their monthly market outlooks. China is due to publish data on oil and gas output and trading during the week.

Monday, Jan. 13

Ag reports and events:

China’s 1st batch of December trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
Export Inspections
Season-Average Price Forecasts
Feed Grains Database
Wheat Data
Turkey Hatchery
Holiday: Japan