Trump to Announce ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Monday or Tuesday

— Trump to announce ‘reciprocal’ tariffs Monday or Tuesday. President Donald Trump revealed plans to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries that match the duties those nations place on U.S. goods. The announcement marks a shift from his previous proposal of across-the-board tariffs on all imports. “I’ll be announcing reciprocal trade, so that we’re treated evenly with other countries,” Trump said during a press briefing with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. “We don’t want any more, any less.” Trump stated the tariffs would apply globally, with the official announcement expected “Monday or Tuesday.”

This move represents a departure from Trump’s earlier proposal of a universal 10% or 20% tariff on all imports. Economists warn that these tariffs could lead to increased costs for U.S. households by raising prices on both foreign and domestic goods. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs could potentially ignite a series of retaliatory measures from affected nations, potentially escalating into a broader trade conflict.

The reciprocal tariffs could significantly impact U.S. trade relations with Europe and Japan.

Proposed tariffs could have substantial effects on EU/U.S. trade:
· Economic impact: A 10% U.S. tariff on EU imports could reduce EU GDP by around 0.3 percentage points over two years.
· Sectoral effects: The automobile industry would be particularly vulnerable, as the EU currently imposes a 10% tariff on U.S. car imports while the U.S. has a 2.5% tariff on imported cars.
· Potential retaliation: If the EU retaliates with symmetric tariffs, it could worsen economic outcomes for both parties.

Effects on U.S./Japan trade could be significant:
· Agricultural sector: The recently signed U.S./Japan Trade Agreement, which reduced tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, could be undermined.
· Automotive industry: Japanese automakers could be hit hard, as the automobile sector makes up 29% of Japanese exports to the U.S.
· Economic consequences: Tariffs on Japan could slash profits for Japanese exporters, potentially affecting up to 9% of Toyota’s EBITDA.
· Trump wants to end the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, saying during a meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House that “We have about a $100 billion dollar deficit… “I want to get that down to even.”

Broader impacts:
· Global value chains: The tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, affecting multinational corporations operating across these regions.
· Negotiation leverage: The threat of tariffs might be used as leverage in future trade negotiations with both the EU and Japan.
· Economic uncertainty: The potential for escalating trade tensions could create economic uncertainty and potentially impact global markets.

(Barron’s )

— Trump said that the U.S. and Japan are discussing a pipeline project in Alaska after meeting with the country’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba. “We’re talking about a joint venture of some type between Japan and US, having to do with Alaska oil and gas,” Trump said Friday at a joint press conference alongside Ishiba at the White House.

The president said Japan would also begin importing new shipments of American liquefied natural gas “in record numbers” and accused his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, of failing to help the U.S. ally address its energy needs.

“We also confirmed we will cooperate to strengthen energy security between the two countries, including increasing exports of United States liquefied natural gas to Japan in a mutually beneficial manner,” Trump said. “Japan wanted to buy LNG and Biden wouldn’t sell it. I’m trying to figure that one out. Maybe it was the environment,” he added.

Of note: Japan is interested in importing bioethanol, ammonia and other resources from the US in addition to LNG, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said.

— Trump temporarily pauses tariffs on low-cost Chinese imports amid trade tensions. President Trump on Friday temporarily halted the implementation of tariffs on low-cost parcels from China after chaos followed the repeal of the de minimis exemption. This rule previously allowed packages valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, benefiting Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu and offering affordable goods to U.S. consumers.

The initial repeal aimed to address trade imbalances, national security concerns, and revenue loss from untaxed imports. However, it led to significant disruptions:
· The U.S. Postal Service temporarily stopped accepting packages from China.
· Customs and Border Protection struggled with a sudden surge in packages requiring tariff collection.
· E-commerce retailers and shipping companies faced operational challenges.

Of note: Trump’s executive order on Feb. 7 reinstates the de minimis exemption temporarily, providing federal agencies time to develop better systems for processing and collecting tariffs on millions of daily shipments. While this move offers temporary relief for consumers and retailers, the administration remains intent on implementing stricter controls in the future, with plans for improved systems and possible trade negotiations.

— U.S. to continue providing food aid despite program review. USDA announced it will maintain its purchase of crops such as soybeans and wheat for food aid programs, following reports that funding had been halted under a Trump administration review. These programs — McGovern-Dole International Food for Education, Childhood Nutrition Program, and Food for Progress — supply food to some of the world’s poorest countries.

In 2023, $422 million was allocated to support nations like Ivory Coast, Lesotho, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Mauritania. These programs are vital for global food security and showcase American agricultural capabilities while providing business opportunities for major commodity traders like Cargill Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.

U.S. food aid efforts remain a critical tool for feeding vulnerable populations. Recent USDA tenders include 20,900 metric tons of hard red wheat and 14,300 tons of northern spring wheat for shipment to Colombia.

— Trump orders review of U.S. funding to NGOs, citing national security concerns. President Donald Trump directed executive branch departments and agencies to review all funding provided to non-government organizations (NGOs), aiming to halt support for groups allegedly undermining U.S. national interests. “The United States Government has provided significant taxpayer dollars to NGOs, many of which are engaged in actions that actively undermine the security, prosperity, and safety of the American people,” Trump said. “It is the policy of my Administration to stop funding NGOs that undermine the national interest.” The move comes as the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) intensifies its scrutiny of USAID and its support for left-leaning social projects and other NGOs.

— Musk’s expanding influence sparks government pushback and legal battles. Elon Musk, leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is facing mounting resistance and lawsuits as his team pushes into multiple federal agencies under the Trump administration. In a few weeks, DOGE has accessed or tried to access numerous government databases, reshaped the workforce at USAID, and initiated a controversial government-wide employee buyout program.

Musk plans to target more agencies, including Medicare and Medicaid, for “waste reduction,” while lawsuits allege privacy violations and improper access to classified information. Concerns grow over DOGE’s unchecked authority, with Democratic lawmakers and unions questioning its legality and impact on national security.

Despite the uproar, President Trump has praised Musk’s efforts, saying he is uncovering widespread fraud and waste in the government. Meanwhile, DOGE’s internal staffing has also sparked controversy, with employees facing public scrutiny for past conduct and security clearance issues.

As for USAID, the White House said: “For decades, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been unaccountable to taxpayers as it funnels massive sums of money to the ridiculous — and, in many cases, malicious — pet projects of entrenched bureaucrats, with next-to-no oversight.” (See next two items for more on USAID and DOGE).

— Court temporarily halts trump administration’s plan to dismantle USAID. The future of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is in limbo after a federal judge paused the Trump administration’s plan to place thousands of employees on leave. Unions representing federal workers took legal action to stop the abrupt overhaul, spearheaded by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which sought to dismantle USAID, an agency Musk called a “ball of worms.” The agency was created in 1961 and codified by Congress in 1998.

Judge Carl Nichols issued a late-night order preventing the administration from placing over 2,200 USAID employees on administrative leave. For now, affected employees will be reinstated with full access to their work systems until a Feb. 12 preliminary injunction hearing. For the 500-some USAID employees currently on administrative leave, Nichols ordered they must be reinstated until that date and restored“complete access” to email, payment and security notification systems.

The Trump administration has justified the move by alleging corruption within the agency, while critics and legal experts argue that shuttering USAID — a congressionally established agency — is unconstitutional. Democratic lawmakers have rallied against the plan, calling it a power grab that threatens to disrupt thousands of lives and derail U.S. foreign aid operations. Meanwhile, most Republican leaders have backed the administration’s restructuring efforts, signaling potential long-term consequences for the agency’s future. During a House Oversight Committee on “Reducing Waste in Government,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) defended Musk’s unprecedented role in the executive branch, saying “real innovation isn’t clean and tidy.”

(Internet)

— Judge blocks Musk’s access to sensitive Treasury records. A federal judge has blocked Elon Musk’s team from accessing sensitive Treasury Dept. records containing millions of Americans’ personal data. This preliminary injunction, issued by U.S. District Judge Paul A. Engelmayer, follows a lawsuit from 19 Democratic attorneys general alleging the Trump administration granted Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) unauthorized access to the Treasury’s central payment system.

The payment system handles vital federal programs like Social Security, veterans’ benefits, and tax refunds. Critics argue DOGE’s access poses security risks and threatens to freeze essential payments, while Musk defends it as a move to curb wasteful spending. New York Attorney General Letitia James called the access illegal, warning of significant privacy breaches and risks to federal funding distribution.

A hearing is set for Friday as the controversy over DOGE’s role and scope continues to escalate.

— U.S. soybean growers urge Trump administration to resume climate-smart payments. American soybean growers are calling on the Trump administration to reinstate payments for climate-smart farming practices that were part of a Biden-era initiative. According to the American Soybean Association (ASA), payments under the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities Program have been suspended as the administration reviews several grants. Former President Joe Biden’s program aimed to invest $3.1 billion in 141 projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on farms. The grants supported practices like no-till farming and cover cropping. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized that these practices improve resilience and environmental outcomes, urging USDA to honor its commitments.

— Trump administration suspends $5 billion EV charger expansion program. The Trump administration suspension rolls back one of former President Joe Biden’s flagship initiatives aimed at accelerating EV adoption. The $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program, launched under the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, aimed to expand charging networks across interstate highways. The Department of Transportation (DOT) said no new obligations will be approved under the program, but reimbursements for existing commitments will continue. Industry groups criticized the decision, highlighting the potential disruption to state and private investments already made. President Trump, who has vowed to dismantle Biden’s pro-EV policies, has made repealing the program a cornerstone of his economic agenda.

— Trump revokes Biden’s security clearance, citing precedent and mental acuity concerns. President Donald Trump announced he revoked former President Joe Biden’s security clearance, barring him from receiving intelligence briefings. Trump said the access is “a courtesy provided to former presidents” and argued that Biden’s declining mental acuity made it unnecessary for him to retain access to sensitive information. Trump referenced Biden’s own 2021 decision to deny him security briefings following the Capitol riot and the Republican’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results. In that instance, Biden cited security concerns, ending a long-standing tradition for former presidents. Trump further pointed to a 2024 special counsel report on Biden’s handling of classified materials, which described Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

Meanwhile, on Friday, Trump dismissed Colleen Shogan, head of the National Archives, who oversaw the agency’s inquiry into Trump’s retention of classified materials after leaving office.

Trump also announced a plan to take over control of the Kennedy Center, vowing to “immediately terminate multiple individuals from the Board of Trustees, including the Chairman (Orioles owner David Rubenstein), who do not share our Vision for a Golden Age in Arts and Culture.” The president indicated that he plans to install himself as the new chair.

— Powerful atmospheric river storm threatens Southern California. A significant atmospheric river storm, predicted to be the strongest of the season, is heading toward Southern California, bringing the risk of flooding, mudslides, and landslides across the region. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard, the storm is expected to arrive before Valentine’s Day and could rival previous severe weather events.

· Rainfall expectations: 2–4 inches along the coast and in valleys, 4–8 inches or more in the mountains and foothills.
· High-risk areas: Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties have a 60% chance of heavy rainfall and high debris flow risk, particularly in recent burn areas such as the Lake fire zone.
· Timing: The storm could begin Tuesday night, with the highest threat between Wednesday and Thursday night.

Meteorologists warn that rainfall rates could reach an inch per hour, enough to trigger dangerous debris flows and flash flooding. Although the current rainy season has been relatively dry, the potential impact remains significant due to vulnerable terrain. Los Angeles and Ventura counties have a 30–50% chance of moderate to heavy rain, with the most severe conditions expected Thursday morning to Friday morning.

Other affected regions:
· San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills may experience hazardous travel conditions.
· The Sierra Nevada could receive over 2 feet of snow, with Lake Tahoe potentially seeing its largest snow event this season.
· The San Francisco Bay Area faces moderate flooding risks.

Upshot: The storm could also mark the transition from “high fire season” to “low fire season” across Southern California.