Tariff-Related Issues Mount; Proposed China Ship Fees Disrupt Trade

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 21, 2025

— Tariffs would deepen U.S./Mexico sugar trade woes. The US is set to import the least amount of sugar from Mexico since 2008 as droughts and impending tariffs disrupt trade, Bloomberg reports (link). A proposed 25% duty under the North American trade agreement has already stalled future shipments, pushing U.S. buyers toward higher-taxed imports from other countries like Brazil. Once Mexico’s top sugar buyer, the U.S. is now sourcing more from alternative markets as supply constraints and trade barriers make Mexican sugar less competitive. While U.S. officials insist domestic supply remains stable, industry leaders warn that tariffs could further inflate costs and strain the long-standing trade relationship. (USDA, Bloomberg) — Brazil prepares for tough tariff talks with U.S., eyes sugar and ethanol trade. Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad signaled on Thursday that upcoming trade negotiations with the U.S. are likely to be prolonged, particularly focusing on sugar and ethanol. Speaking to GloboNews TV, Haddad said the U.S. would likely bring up ethanol, while Brazil would counter with sugar. His comments come amid broader concerns over potential U.S. tariff hikes, with a White House fact sheet already citing Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as unfair. The issue has drawn attention from Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira, who called any new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian ethanol “unreasonable,” pointing to a history of joint negotiation on ethanol and sugar trade. Brazil, a major global sugar producer, primarily derives its ethanol from sugarcane — unlike the U.S., which uses corn. Haddad also highlighted trade in services, an area where the U.S. exports far more to Brazil, as another negotiation point. He emphasized that Brazil’s strategy is not to escalate tensions but to prepare a comprehensive trade agenda to ensure “reciprocity, not retaliation” at the negotiation table. — U.S. exporters hit as proposed China ship fees disrupt trade. President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose hefty fees — up to $1.5 million per vessel — on China-built or China-linked ships is causing major disruptions in U.S. coal and agricultural exports. According to Reuters (link), U.S. coal inventories are rising as vessel owners refuse to transport shipments, with Xcoal Energy & Resources CEO Ernie Thrasher warning that exports could halt within 60 days, jeopardizing $130 billion in shipments. The American Petroleum Institute has also raised concerns that the fees could impact oil, liquefied natural gas, and refined fuel exports. Agricultural exporters face mounting uncertainty as grain traders struggle to secure ocean freight, potentially adding $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation costs. “When you add costs to that efficient system, it’s no longer efficient. We no longer have the competitive edge,” said Alexa Combelic of the American Soybean Association. The proposed measures, aimed at revitalizing U.S. shipbuilding, have raised alarm across multiple industries, with hearings scheduled next week to address growing concerns (see next item). — NGFA tells members: Oppose costly Section 301 export penalties. A proposed government trade policy aimed at boosting U.S. shipbuilding could significantly increase costs for grain shippers and hurt America’s global competitiveness. Industry groups are pushing back, urging alternative solutions that don’t involve port fees and export restrictions. NGFA told its members: “If your business relies on exports, NGFA encourages you to submit comments to the U.S. Trade Representative before March 24 to make your voice heard.” Of note: After the end of the comment period, USTR will review the comments and testimony before making a final determination on the proposed actions, which could include imposing port fees and requirements for U.S.-flagged vessels. Given the typical timeline for Section 301 investigations, which can take between 12 to 18 months to complete, and considering the investigation was initiated on April 17, 2024, a final decision is likely to be made by the end of April 2025 at the latest. However, the exact timing may vary based on the complexity of the case and the need for additional review or negotiations. Decisions may be influenced by ongoing diplomatic efforts or political pressures, which can lead to delays as different stakeholders negotiate or lobby for their interests. Conducting thorough assessments of the economic impact of potential remedies on both U.S. industries and global trade can also contribute to delays. Changes in global trade policies or unexpected developments in international relations can prompt the USTR to reassess its strategy, leading to delays in finalizing decisions. Also, pressure from Congress or other legislative bodies to expedite or alter the investigation’s course can also affect the timeline for a final decision. — Canadian farmers squeezed as China tariffs hit amid U.S. trade threats. Canadian farmers are bracing for a tough planting season as new Chinese tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products took effect March 20, compounding tensions with looming U.S. trade actions. China has imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil, canola meal, and peas, along with 25% duties on aquatic products and pork, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles. Farmers, already committed to planting plans, are expressing deep concern, Reuters reports (link). “The seed has already been bought. The inputs have already been bought... We have no choice but to move forward,” said Alberta farmer Tara Sawyer. Compounding the strain, President Donald Trump is expected to impose further tariffs on Canadian products within two weeks, following recent steel and aluminum duties and threats targeting dairy and lumber. The uncertain trade climate is dampening equipment sales and pushing farmers toward low-interest loans to manage costs. The Canadian Canola Growers Association reports a sharp rise in loan applications as growers brace for potential market disruption and price volatility. — Maple Leaf resistance: Canadians boycott U.S. Goods amid trade tensions. Frustrated by President Trump’s tariffs, calls for Canada to become the 51st state, and repeated criticism, Canadians are striking back with a grassroots boycott of American products. Social media is flooded with tips and AI-powered apps like O SCANada and Maple Scan to help consumers identify and avoid U.S.-made goods. Retailers are highlighting Canadian-made products with maple leaf labels, while patriotic hashtags like #ElbowsUp trend online. Peace by Chocolate has capitalized on the movement, selling thousands of “Elbows Up” bars since March. Travel to the U.S. has dropped sharply — 40% down in March compared to February — as Canadians choose destinations like Mexico and Europe. Prime Minister Mark Carney reaffirmed Canada’s sovereignty, calling Trump’s rhetoric “disrespectful.” Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow announced that the city will exclude U.S. companies from bidding on future contracts, including 17 new firetrucks. — EPA reaffirms WOTUS review and commits to cleanup efforts in Missouri. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that the agency, in coordination with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, will move forward with reviewing the definition of Waters of the United States (WOTUS), fulfilling a pledge from the Trump administration. The EPA emphasized that the revised definition will reduce red tape and regulatory costs while maintaining protection of navigable waters, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s Sackett v. EPA decision. Zeldin also toured irradiated sites in the St. Louis area alongside Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who pressed for a faster cleanup of the West Lake Landfill, a Superfund site. Hawley criticized the federal government for its role in the contamination and delays in remediation. Zeldin, who had previously promised to visit the site, met with affected residents and acknowledged their long-standing struggle, stating, “You are here as an example of a community that has been left behind and is in need of help.” — Trump administration escalates water dispute with Mexico. The Trump administration announced it will cut off Colorado River water to Tijuana, citing Mexico’s failure to meet water delivery obligations from the Rio Grande — a long-standing concern for Texas lawmakers. Though Tijuana relies minimally on this water source, the decision could strain binational water cooperation. The State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs claimed Mexico’s shortfalls are “decimating American agriculture.” The move also coincides with U.S. frustration over untreated sewage and waste flowing from Tijuana into San Diego, prompting daily oversight from Administrator Lee Zeldin, who insists Mexico must “fully honor its commitment.” — Over 160 lawsuits have been filed against Trump’s policies, and more than 80 of these have sought emergency relief, though most have been rejected by courts. — From AP: On this date in 1980, President Jimmy Carter announced that the United States would boycott the Summer Olympic games in Moscow due to the Soviet Union’s failure to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan.

— Senate to hold confirmation hearing for SEC nominee Paul Atkins. The Senate Banking Committee announced it will hold a confirmation hearing for Paul Atkins to lead the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 27. Atkins, a former Republican SEC commissioner (2002–2008) and founder of Patomak Global Partners, is expected to focus on streamlining IPO processes, limiting SEC enforcement, and shaping regulations for the digital-asset industry if confirmed.

— Paul Weiss reverses rift with Trump, Offers $40 million in legal aid. Paul Weiss, a law firm previously targeted by Donald Trump via executive order, has reached a deal to support his administration. Following reports that firm chair Brad Karp had been making overtures to the White House, the New York Times revealed the firm will provide $40 million in pro bono legal services for Trump-aligned causes, including efforts to fight antisemitism on college campuses. In return, Trump rescinded the executive order, which had barred the firm from government buildings and contracts. The move follows Trump’s criticism of the firm for its past ties to a lawyer involved in investigations against him — ties the White House now claims Karp has disavowed.

— Government workforce cuts under review, final decisions months away. A Reuters report says U.S. government agencies’ plans to reduce workforce numbers are under review, but final actions are expected to take months. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and Office of Personnel Management (OPM) are overseeing the process. Although Elon Musk is being briefed, neither he nor President Donald Trump is directly involved. One source predicted a September conclusion, noting some plans may be sent back for revisions. Once approved, agencies will implement their reductions in force (RIFs) and submit monthly progress reports.

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings. Global stocks fell as disappointing corporate earnings reignited investor concerns amid mounting trade tensions. In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong -2.2%. China -1.3%. India +0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.8%. S&P 500 futures dropped, with FedEx plunging 8% in pre-market trading after slashing its earnings outlook due to inflation and weak demand. Nike also fell 6%, partly blaming U.S. tariffs for its profitability woes. Meanwhile, gold held near record highs, bolstered by strong inflows into gold funds and rising safe-haven demand.

Equities yesterday:

(Exchanges)

— Retail investors now drive U.S. stock market, but jitters emerge. More U.S. households are investing in the stock market than ever, with individuals now holding 60% of U.S. equities, according to JPMorgan. Retail investors have become a key force in market dynamics. However, early signs of nervousness are emerging amid volatility and economic uncertainty. U.S. households held 42% of their financial assets in equities in Q1 — slightly below the previous period’s record, suggesting growing caution.

— Best Buy warns tariffs could disrupt supply chain and raise prices. Best Buy cautioned investors that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs may significantly disrupt its supply chain and increase prices for U.S. consumers. In its latest annual report, the retailer revealed that although it directly imports only 2–3% of its inventory, about 55% of its products come from vendors in China and 20% from Mexico — two key targets of Trump’s trade policies. The company flagged that both its electronics and its underlying tech infrastructure depend heavily on rare earth elements processed in China. Best Buy said it faces “significant uncertainty” going into fiscal 2026 regarding the scale and financial impact of these tariffs.

Other companies, including Sweetgreen and Beyond Meat, have also warned of rising costs linked to the tariffs, which affect key materials and ingredients sourced outside the U.S.

Best Buy added that political uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics could dampen consumer confidence. CEO Corie Barry acknowledged likely price increases but stressed the company’s ability to navigate turbulent economic conditions.

— Consulting firm Accenture consulting firm forecast a potential hit from the sweeping cuts being made by Elon Musk’s government-cutting team. Accenture’s federal services business unit, which accounts for around 8% of global revenues, has already lost contracts. “As you know, the new administration has a clear goal to run the federal government more efficiently. During this process, many new procurement actions have slowed, which is negatively impacting our sales and revenue,” said Julie Sweet, CEO of Accenture.

— One or two Fed rate cuts, that’s it? “We think the Fed will find it difficult to cut more than once or twice this year – even if prolonged uncertainty starts to hurt otherwise healthy growth. That’s why we would lean against yesterday’s move in US Treasuries and pricing in of more Fed cuts.” — Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute.

— Summers warns of market stress and rule-of-law risks. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow its reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, calling it a troubling sign of weak demand for long-term debt. He likened the move to the Bank of England’s response to the 2022 Liz Truss crisis, suggesting the Fed is acting preemptively to avoid market instability. “This should be getting people’s attention as an alarming development,” Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. The move indicated that Fed policymakers determined there was “limited absorption capacity in the markets for long-term bonds,” he said.

Summers also raised concerns about the Trump administration’s actions undermining the rule of law, warning that recent policies could erode investor confidence. He urged business leaders to push back against what he sees as growing authoritarian risks.

— Iowa GOP targets Deere tax credit amid layoffs. Republicans on an Iowa House subcommittee have advanced a bill requiring Deere & Co. to repay up to 50% of its 2024 state research tax credit after laying off approximately 1,700 workers. HSB 306, as reported by Radio Iowa, applies to companies cutting over 1,500 jobs in 2024, enforcing financial accountability tied to state incentives. GOP Rep. Derek Wulf framed the bill as an “America First” measure, aligning with Donald Trump’s economic stance. Deere & Co. lobbyist Stacey Pellet defended the company’s R&D investments, stating, “Deere invests roughly $2.5 million a day in research and development, and half of that is done in Iowa.” Critics, including the Iowa Taxpayers Association, argue that rescinding earned tax credits during economic downturns could deter business investment (WQAD News 8). Trump previously threatened a 200% tariff on Deere products if the company shifted more production to Mexico. Deere attributes the layoffs to declining customer orders and economic uncertainty.

— Japan’s inflation eases to 3.7% in February amid energy subsidies. Japan’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from 4.0% in January, driven by a sharp slowdown in electricity and gas prices following the reinstatement of government energy subsidies. Food price increases also moderated after hitting a 15-month high. Inflation eased across healthcare, recreation, and miscellaneous items, while education costs continued to decline. However, inflation remained steady for housing and clothing, while rising for transport, furniture, and communications. Core inflation dropped to 3.0% from January’s 19-month peak of 3.2%, slightly above forecasts. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1%, marking its first decline since September.

— Ag markets today:

· Quiet overnight trade. Corn, soybeans and wheat did not stray far from unchanged overnight, with volume in each being quite light. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn and soybean futures were near unchanged to fractionally lower while wheat futures were about a penny higher. Front-month crude oil futures were about 30 cents lower, while the U.S. dollar index was around 75 points higher.

· Cash cattle fundamentals weaken modestly. Light cash trade took place in Iowa or Minnesota at $202.00, down about $3.00 from last week’s average for the area. Cutout ended Thursday mixed as Choice slipped $1.55 to $328.06 while Select inched 68 cents higher to $309.36.

· Hog index posts new low. The CME lean hog index is down 21 cents to $89.20 as of March 19, negating the past couple days of strength and posting a fresh for-the-move low. Pork cutout did rebound Thursday, rising 67 cents to $95.86, led by strength in bellies, butts and ribs.

(Exchanges)

— Ag trade: Syria is still seeking offers in its 100,000 MT wheat tender.

— Cattle on Feed report this afternoon. USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed report today. A survey done by the CME shows expectations that February large-lot (1,000-plus head) marketings fell to just over 91% of year-ago, with last month’s average placement estimate at almost 15% under year-ago. The net result of those estimates is a March 1 feedlot population figure about 2% under its 2024 counterpart.

— Taiwan to send ag delegation to U.S. Taiwan is planning to send an agricultural delegation to the U.S. in September as part of its efforts to reduce the trade surplus with the U.S. This move is aimed at boosting imports from the U.S. and mitigating potential tariff increases on Taiwanese exports, which were previously threatened by the Trump administration. The delegation, jointly organized by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Agriculture, will focus on purchasing U.S. agricultural products. Meanwhile, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed between Changhua County’s Hexing Agricultural and Livestock Production Cooperation and The DeLong Co., Inc. This agreement involves the purchase of 120,000 metric tons of animal feed from the U.S. annually, benefiting 100 hog farms in Taiwan. Taiwan is also expanding its procurement of U.S. industrial and agricultural products, as well as natural gas, to address the trade deficit with the U.S.

— Cotton AWP rises. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton moved up to 54.63 cents per pound, effective today (March 21), up nearly a cent from the prior week’s level of 53.76 cents per pound.

— RINS indicator. For February, the amount of RINS generated suggests that renewable and biodiesel production is slowing, and the soybean crush could be slowing, says commodity trader and analyst Richard Crow.

— Rice prices retreat, offering rare relief amid food cost surge. While the cost of essentials like eggs and coffee continues to climb, rice is quietly bucking the trend. According to Bloomberg, prices for the global staple have plunged nearly 35% from their 15-year high early last year — driven by improved weather conditions and India’s removal of long-standing export restrictions.

This drop brings rice prices close to their lowest levels since 2022 and offers a rare bit of relief for billions in Asia and Africa who depend on the grain as a key calorie source. Expanded global stockpiles are helping ease pressure, even as overall food inflation remains high, with a UN food index rising 8% over the past year due to pricier dairy and cooking oils.

However, the retreat in rice prices isn’t without risk. Farmers in countries like Thailand and Indonesia warn that current rates don’t cover basic costs like fertilizer and labor, potentially threatening future harvests if planting declines. As Bloomberg’s Pratik Parija, Anuradha Raghu, and Katarina Höije report, the rice market’s recent gains for consumers could spell trouble for producers down the line.

(Thailand Rice Exporters Assn., Bloomberg)

— U.S. dairy prices have experienced fluctuations over the past few months, with some products seeing significant declines. Here’s a breakdown of the changes and the underlying reasons:

Price changes

1. Cheese prices:

a. Blocks: Prices have dropped substantially. For example, on March 18, 2025, block cheese prices plummeted by 7 cents to $1.5750/lb, following a sharp decline earlier in March where prices fell by 21 cents over a week.

b. Barrels: Similarly, barrel cheese prices have also decreased, with a drop of 5.50 cents on March 18 to $1.5700/lb.

2. Butter prices have weakened, with a decline of 0.75 cents to $2.2950/lb on March 18, 2025. This trend reflects adequate cream supplies and pressure from imported butterfat.

3. Dry whey: Despite overall market weakness, dry whey has shown some resilience, with recent gains supported by export demand.

4. Milk prices: USDA revised its 2025 milk price forecasts downward. The all-milk price is now projected at $21.60 per cwt, down $1.00 from last month’s forecast. Class III milk is forecasted at $17.95 per cwt, and Class IV at $18.80 per cwt.

Reasons for price declines

1. Supply and demand dynamics:

a. Seasonal supply increases, particularly the spring flush, have contributed to downward pressure on dairy product prices.

b. Improved milk availability in key cheese-producing regions has also played a role.

2. Feed costs: Rising feed costs, such as increases in corn and soybeans, have pressured dairy margins, though recent moderation in feed prices may offer some relief.

3. Global market factors:

a. International market conditions, including increased production in New Zealand and constrained European output, have influenced U.S. dairy prices.

b. Strong demand for butter in Oceania due to short supplies has contrasted with weaker demand in other regions.

4. Competition from alternatives: Growing competition from plant-based alternatives has also impacted dairy demand and prices.

5. USDA forecasts and production trends: USDA’s downward revisions in milk production forecasts and dairy product prices reflect slower-than-expected growth in milk output per cow and changes in global market conditions.

— Oil prices fell slightly on Friday but were heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply. Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, 0.4%, at $71.73 a barrel . U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.85. On a weekly basis, Brent was on track to rise 1.5% and WTI nearly 1%, marking their biggest gains since the first week of the year.

— Oil prices rose Thursday amid U.S. sanctions, OPEC+ cuts, and geopolitical tensions. Oil prices climbed on Thursday as new U.S. sanctions targeting Iran, including Chinese “teapot” refiners and crude transport vessels, heightened geopolitical risks. Brent crude rose $1.22 (1.72%) to $72, while WTI’s expiring April contract settled at $68.26, up $1.10 (1.64%). The May WTI contract gained $1.16 (1.73%) to $68.07. OPEC+ outlined additional oil output cuts through June 2026 from seven member nations, including Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.7 million barrels, exceeding forecasts.

— OPEC+ drafts new plan for oil cuts. OPEC+ issued a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil production cuts to compensate for pumping agreed upon levels. This overtakes their plans to hike production that was set to take place next month. The plan entails monthly cuts between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support prices.

— Global shipping faces a carbon price. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to finalize the first worldwide carbon pricing for the shipping industry. With implementation in 2027, ship owners may pay between $18.75 and $150 per ton of CO2. The debate pits island nations, pushing for a fund-based system, against exporters like China and Brazil, wary of rising costs and potential impacts on their economies. They argue that such measures could harm exports and exacerbate economic inequality. The outcome could shape the future of green shipping investments.

Timeline: The IMO is expected to finalize the mid-term measures, including the carbon pricing mechanism, during its Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) session from April 7 to 11. The formal adoption of these measures is anticipated during the MEPC session scheduled for October 2025.

Impact on the shipping industry

· Economic impact: The introduction of carbon pricing will likely increase operational costs for shipping companies. These costs may be passed on to consumers, potentially affecting global trade dynamics and supply chains.

· Technological innovation: A carbon tax could spur innovation in green technologies, such as biofuels, hydrogen, and energy-efficient ship designs. This could lead to significant advancements in the industry’s sustainability.

· Revenue generation: The revenue generated from carbon pricing could be used to support the development of zero-carbon vessels, enhance maritime infrastructure, and fund broader climate initiatives.

— Experts warn multi-front trade war could devastate U.S. agri-food sector. A multi-front trade war could have long-lasting and severe consequences for U.S. agricultural and food exports, trade experts cautioned during a panel hosted by the Washington International Trade Association (WITA) on March 19. Industry leaders warned that retaliatory tariffs, reputational damage, and shifting global trade dynamics could undercut U.S. market share for years to come.

‘Quite disturbing’: Former USDA top economist sounds alarm. Former USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber described the prospect of simultaneous trade conflicts with China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union as “frankly, quite disturbing.” He underscored the importance of exports, which account for 20% of U.S. agricultural production, with key commodities like soybeans, cotton, and tree nuts relying on international markets for over half their sales. “These are critical markets for U.S. agriculture, and so it is hard to fathom … a multiple front trade war,” Glauber stated, warning that retaliatory tariffs could hobble key export sectors, including corn, soy, pork, beef, and dairy.

Soy growers fear repeat of market losses. Virginia Houston, Director of Government Affairs at the American Soybean Association (ASA), recalled how U.S. soy exports to China suffered during the 2018 trade war, allowing Brazil to cement itself as the world’s leading soybean exporter. “When U.S. soy was locked out of the Chinese market, that really gave Brazil incentive to ramp up their production to meet Chinese demand,” Houston noted. Even after tensions eased, the U.S. struggled to regain lost market share, highlighting the lasting impact of trade disputes.

Food & beverage companies face additional risks. Tom Madrecki, Vice President of Supply Chain Resiliency at the Consumer Brands Association (CBA), warned that U.S. food, beverage, and consumer product companies could be hit not only by retaliatory tariffs but also by consumer backlash abroad. “Iconic American brands that we represent are typically first in line for either being pulled off of a shelf or being tariffed,” Madrecki said, noting that beyond tariffs, trade partners could impose regulatory barriers that further restrict U.S. exports.

Trade aid cannot fully offset long-term damage. While the Trump administration previously provided nearly $30 billion in aid payments to farmers affected by trade disputes, Glauber stressed that financial relief cannot fully mitigate the lasting harm caused by lost markets. He pointed out that China’s growing soybean demand in recent years has primarily benefited Brazil, demonstrating how difficult it is for U.S. producers to reclaim lost ground. “Whether or not the monies are available this time around, I think is going to be a very big question,” Glauber added, referencing potential budgetary constraints on future trade aid programs.

Bottom line: As trade tensions escalate, panelists warned that even if disputes are eventually resolved, the economic damage to farmers, food manufacturers, and exporters could persist for years — altering global trade flows and reshaping the competitive landscape for U.S. agricultural and food products.

— Sen. Britt pushes GOP on childcare in tax plan. Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) is urging Republicans to tackle childcare costs in their upcoming tax cuts package, arguing the party must deliver for working-class voters, Semafor reports. She supports a bipartisan proposal to expand the child and dependent care tax credit, increase dependent care assistance, and help businesses provide childcare. While some Republicans prefer simply expanding the child tax credit, debate over the final approach is expected.

— Stefanik set for UN role, triggers race for NY-21 seat. After months of delays, U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is slated to be confirmed as U.N. ambassador on April 2, nearly five months after her nomination by President Donald Trump. The hold-up was a strategic move by GOP leaders to preserve their narrow House majority. Her confirmation will follow two Florida special elections expected to favor Republicans, ensuring her departure won’t jeopardize House control. Once confirmed, Stefanik is expected to resign quickly, triggering a special election in New York’s 21st Congressional District. State law requires Gov. Kathy Hochul to schedule the vote within 70 to 80 days of the seat opening, likely setting up a July contest.

Democrats have already named Lisbon dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as their candidate, while Republicans are still narrowing down a crowded field that includes State Sen. Dan Stec, Liz Joy, Anthony Constantino, and Assembly members Chris Tague and Robert Smullen.

— Canada’s snap election likely April 28. The upcoming Canadian federal election, expected on April 28, marks a pivotal moment following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent leadership takeover.

· Carney’s leadership: Sworn in on March 14, Carney, a former central banker, is navigating economic challenges without a parliamentary seat.
· Snap election strategy: The Liberal Party aims to capitalize on renewed popularity amid rising tensions with the U.S. and Trump’s rhetoric on Canadian sovereignty.
· Election issues: Trade conflicts and Trump’s remarks about making Canada the 51st state have reshaped public opinion, slightly favoring the Liberals in polls.
· Tight race: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was previously ahead, but Trump’s actions have shifted momentum toward the Liberals.
· Timing: The election will likely be set for April 28, with an official announcement expected on March 24.

— FDA delays food traceability rule enforcement. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced it will delay enforcement of its Food Traceability Rule by 30 months, pushing the start date from January 2026 to mid-2028. While the rule aims to better track and prevent foodborne illness outbreaks, FDA said the extension is to allow more time for coordination across the supply chain. The delay marks a major win for the food industry, which has long argued the regulation — mandated by the 2011 Food Safety Modernization Act — is costly and complex, especially for smaller businesses. FDA stressed that the requirements of the final rule remain unchanged. The decision follows recent high-profile outbreaks, including a deadly listeria incident tied to deli meats, which intensified calls for stronger food safety measures.

— USDA invests in HPAI research amid egg shortage; boosts egg imports. USDA is committing up to $100 million to research new therapeutics and vaccines for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as part of a broader $1 billion effort to combat the disease and stabilize egg prices. To address the ongoing egg shortage, the U.S. has significantly increased egg imports from Turkey, with 2025 imports expected to be nearly six times higher than last year’s 71 million eggs. The U.S. will also begin importing more eggs from South Korea, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said on a call with industry groups and reporters. South Korea joins Turkey and Brazil among nations sending more eggs to the U.S. as part of the Trump administration’s effort to drive down egg prices. USDA has reached out to Denmark and other European countries to explore the possibility of importing eggs, but no imports have begun yet. The Danish Egg Association has expressed openness to exporting eggs but noted significant challenges, including strict hygiene regulations and a global egg shortage.

Facts and figures: South Korea has recently begun exporting eggs to the U.S. for the first time, with Gyerim Farm shipping 20 tons to Georgia. Turkey is also significantly increasing its egg exports to the U.S., planning to send 420 million eggs this year. Additionally, Brazil has seen a surge in egg exports to the U.S., with a 57.5% increase in February compared to the previous year.

Bottom line: This dual approach — investing in HPAI research and expanding egg imports — aims to strengthen the poultry industry and improve market stability. Despite these efforts, egg prices remain elevated, though Rollins believes the industry has passed the most challenging phase of the crisis. The U.S. continues to seek additional international suppliers to further stabilize the market and lower prices for consumers.

— USDA reports strong early progress in avian flu strategy, egg prices drop nearly 50%. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced significant early success in the USDA’s five-pronged strategy to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and lower egg prices. Less than a month after the plan’s launch, egg prices have dropped nearly 50%, and the agency reports measurable progress across all strategic areas. Key updates:

· Biosecurity expansion: Over 130 poultry facilities assessed in 2025, with USDA covering up to 75% of biosecurity improvement costs.
· Farmer relief: Indemnity rate for layer hens increased to $16.94 per bird to accelerate flock repopulation.
· Regulatory easing: Ongoing collaboration with FDA and industry to reduce burdens and maintain food safety.
· $100 million in research funding: New funding opportunity to advance HPAI vaccines, therapeutics, and outbreak response.
· Egg import deals with Turkey and South Korea to boost domestic supply; U.S. exports down 8%. (See above for details.)

Of note: Regarding the idea floated by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that perhaps the best strategy could be to let HPAI run rampant through the industry to determine those birds that are resistant, Rollins did not comment directly as Kailee Tkacz Buller, Rollins’ chief of staff, said that Rollins had to briefly step away but that the two officials were “aligned on approach” but did not comment on Kennedy’s specific remarks.

— Trump hints at rare earths deal with Ukraine, says peace talks “doing very well.” President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. is close to finalizing a minerals and natural resources agreement with Ukraine, specifically involving rare earths. Speaking at the White House, Trump also shared optimism about ongoing peace efforts between Ukraine and Russia, following talks with both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Vladimir Putin. While the negotiations have not yet yielded a ceasefire or an end to the war, Trump said progress was being made: “Hopefully we’d save thousands of people a week from dying.” A senior U.S. official described the upcoming deal as “more detailed and comprehensive” than a previous version nearly finalized in February, but did not elaborate.

— China courts Trump-aligned Sen. Daines amid stalled trade talks. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), a close ally of President Donald Trump, is set to meet with a senior Chinese leader in Beijing this weekend — the first public meeting between a U.S. politician and a top Chinese official since Trump’s return to office. The visit comes amid stalled trade negotiations and escalating tensions over tariffs. Daines, who previously served as a backchannel during the 2019 trade war, announced the trip following a meeting with Trump, saying he would advance the “America First” agenda. He’s reportedly seeking to lay the groundwork for a potential summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing is simultaneously preparing for the China Development Forum, a major gathering of global business leaders, and hopes to showcase economic openness despite rising tensions and a surge in outbound investment. The visit also comes just before a critical U.S. review of China’s trade compliance and new reciprocal tariffs expected from Trump.

Of note: Daines said on X earlier this week that he would be talking with Chinese officials about curbing the production and distribution of fentanyl and “the need to reduce the trade deficit and ensure fair market access for our Montana farmers, ranchers and producers.”

— Record glacier melt threatens billions. Glaciers worldwide lost 450 billion tonnes of mass in 2024 due to climate change, according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service. The organization reported that glacier loss from 2022 to 2024 marked the worst three-year decline on record. The UN’s weather agency warned that continued melting could jeopardize food and water access for 2 billion people.

— NWS outlook: Wet weather continues across the Pacific Northwest as mountain snow spreads into the Northern Rockies by the weekend... ...A brief cold snap across the South this morning will be followed by a general warm up to Spring-like temperatures for the Plains and the East Coast... ...Fire weather threat continues across large portions of the Central to Southern Plains.

(NWS)

21: USDA Chicken & Eggs report | Cattle on Feed | Milk Production
25: USDA Cold Storage report | USDA Food Price Outlook
27: USDA Hogs & Pigs report
27: MLB Opening Day
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum | Eggs/HPAI | NEC task force on HPAI, egg prices | Options for HPAI/Egg prices | Trump tariffs | Greer responses to lawmakers | Trump reciprocal tariffs |