Survey: Crucial Shift in Ag Sector Towards Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Land Values and Farm Economics

GOP plans tax-related budget reconciliation measure if they win White House, House & Senate

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May 08, 2024 09:39 AM

Survey: Crucial Shift in Ag Sector Towards Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Land Values and Farm Economics
GOP plans tax-related budget reconciliation measure if they win White House, House & Senate

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

Noticeable decrease in U.S. consumer credit usage
BNSF Railway’s first-quarter net profit fell 8% to $1.14 billion
Private equity firms reportedly weighing takeover of Peloton
Japan issues stronger warnings on yen’s impact
California’s wealthiest farm family plans mega-warehouse complex
Former Treasury Sec Mnuchin on strong dollar’s current role in U.S. economy
Crude oil prices fall to lowest since March 11
Santos and Repsol considering sale of minority stakes in several Alaska oilfields
Ag markets today
Much bigger Oklahoma wheat crop expected this year
Brazil preparing for emergency rice imports
Texas Panhandle wildfires: loss $123 million, making it costliest wildfire in state history
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook

BALTIMORE BRIDGE COLLAPSE

Salvage efforts begin to remove a large section of bridge collapse

CONGRESS

GOP plans budget reconciliation if they sweep Congress, White House

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

U.S. pauses shipment of bombs to Israel

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

Assassination plot against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy foiled

POLICY

U.S. ag sector’s next revenue stream

CHINA

Washington revokes some export licenses for U.S.-made chips to Huawei
TikTok initiates legal action against U.S. law recently signed by President Biden
Exports from Taiwan plunged to 4.3% y/y in April from 18.9% in March
19% of products sold in U.S., globally contain traces of cotton from Xinjiang region , where the use of forced labor in cotton production has led to international bans
U.S. biofuel sector raises concerns re: surge in imports of used cooking oil from China
China approves gene-edited wheat for first time
EU wants China to stop flooding market with ‘massively subsidized’ EVs

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

Answer to frequent question we get re: biofuel tax incentives
Firms transition to electric heavy-duty trucks see unexpected high operating costs
The lithium boom

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

Food-delivery industry seeing signs of consolidation
USDA: Neighboring farms don’t need to conduct tests for the H5N1 bird flu virus

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz just survives bitter primary fight
AI warning on elections
Five potential twists could significantly impact U.S. presidential election
Rural voters, urban districts

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. In Asia, Japan -1.6%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -0.6%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +0.4%. U.S. Dow is currently up around 20 points in lackluster trading. Later today the focus will be on comments from Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and earnings from Uber, Arm and Airbnb. Treasury yields held pretty steady overnight even after Minneapolis Fed chief and known hawk Neel Kashkari said all policy options were on the table in getting inflation back in the bottle.

U.S. equities yesterday: Major indices ended narrowly mixed, with the Dow up 31.99 points, 0.08%, at 38,884.26. The Nasdaq fell 16.69 points, 0.10%, at 16,332.56. The S&P 500 rose 6.96 points, 0.13%, at 5,187.70.

— BNSF Railway’s first-quarter net profit fell 8% to $1.14 billion as a measure of pricing strength fell 10%.

— Private equity firms are reportedly weighing a takeover of Peloton, the struggling fitness company whose market capitalization has shrunk to around $1 billion.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and wheat futures faced mild followthrough selling during the overnight session. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading a penny lower, soybeans were 3 to 5 cents lower, SRW wheat was 4 to 5 cents lower, HRW wheat was 7 to 8 cents lower and HRS wheat was 3 to 5 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were about $1.00 lower, and the U.S. dollar index was around 150 points higher.

Solid packer demand for cash cattle. Despite buying a lot of cattle the past two weeks and negative cutting margins, cash sources indicate packer demand is solid early this week. A limited number of cash cattle traded around steady money, though most feedlots remain hopeful they will be able to get higher prices for a third straight week, which should happen if the reports on packer demand prove accurate.

Cash hog index pauses. The CME lean hog index is up 24 cents to $91.03 as of May 6. Since reaching a short-term peak at $91.64 on April 23, the index has drifted sideways, pausing the seasonal rally. Meanwhile, the pork cutout value dropped $2.41 on Tuesday, pressured by a $9.01 drop in bellies and a $4.33 decline in loins. Since hitting $103.60 on April 15, wholesale pork prices have weakened, though there have been spurts of price strength.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: July corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.67 and nearer the session low.
Soy complex: July soybeans fell 2 1/4 cents to $12.46 1/2, while July soymeal fell $4.40 to $383.20. Both ended nearer the session lows. July soyoil rose 66 points to 44.50 cents and secured a close above the 10-day moving average.
Wheat: July SRW futures fell 6 cents to $6.42 3/4, though closed well off session lows. July HRW futures dropped 11 1/4 cents to $6.64. July HRS futures sunk 6 1/2 cents to $7.19.
Cotton: July cotton rose 44 cents to 77.50 cents, forging a low-range close.
Cattle: June live cattle futures rose 65 cents to $177.625 though settled near session lows. May feeder cattle futures settled 75 cents higher to $242.15.
Hogs: June lean hog futures closed up 15 cents at $98.325 and nearer the session low.

— Quotes of note:

Fedspeak: “If we need to hold rates where they are for an extended period of time to tap the brakes on the economy, or if we even needed to raise, we would do what we needed to do to get inflation back down,” Minneapolis Fed chief and known hawk Neel Kashkari said. He is not a voting member of the Fed’s policymaking committee this year, which is likely one of the reasons why markets appeared to discount the comments.
87 — The percentage of respondents in a survey published today by the employment law firm Littler of more than 400 executives who were concerned about managing divisive political and social beliefs among their employees ahead of the 2024 election.
“It was as simple as a few Google searches and a phone call.” — Charles Robinson, on finding a supplier to help launch his hand sanitizer business, Gelcard, at the onset of the pandemic, a business he says is still running.

— In March, there was a noticeable decrease in U.S. consumer credit usage, with the overall credit increase dropping to $6.3 billion from $15 billion in February. Specifically, credit card use saw a minimal rise of only 0.1%, marking the slowest growth since April 2021, compared to a significant 9.7% increase in February. However, nonrevolving credit did grow by 2%, which is an improvement over February’s 1.4% rise. This slowdown in credit usage suggests that consumers might be starting to reduce their spending, a trend that could influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions as they assess economic activity and consumer confidence.

— Japan issues stronger warnings on yen’s impact. The Bank of Japan may take monetary policy action if pressure on the yen affects prices significantly, governor Kazuo Ueda said, offering the strongest indication to date the currency’s sharp declines could trigger another interest rate hike. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also voiced “strong concern” over the negative impact of a weak yen, such as boosting import costs, and repeated Tokyo’s readiness to intervene in the market to prop up the weak currency. The remarks underscore the resolve of the Japanese government and central bank to cooperate in keeping damaging yen declines in check. Dollar/yen climbed back above 155 despite the warnings.

— California’s wealthiest farm family plans mega-warehouse complex that would reshape Kern economy. The Wonderful Co., owned by billionaires Stewart and Lynda Resnick, is planning to significantly expand its industrial park in Kern County, California, which could transform the region into a key hub for global goods movement, the Los Angeles Times reports (link). This expansion aims to more than double the park’s current size by converting 1,800 acres of almond groves into additional warehousing space. This move is driven by the growing demand for online shopping fulfillment centers.

The proposed expansion includes significant infrastructure developments such as a new highway to manage increased truck traffic and a $120 million inland rail terminal to improve logistics and reduce congestion on major truck routes. The expansion is expected to create up to 50,000 jobs, significantly impacting the local economy traditionally dependent on agriculture and oil.

However, the project has raised concerns among local residents about potential negative environmental and health impacts due to increased truck and train traffic. The area is already one of the nation’s most polluted corridors, and there is fear that more industrial activity could worsen the situation.

In response to these concerns, Wonderful plans to implement measures to mitigate the impacts, including building the Wonderful Pacific Terminal for more efficient cargo handling and proposing a fund to support local community programs. The company’s expansion plans are still in the planning phase and require several approvals before proceeding.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer, as the euro and British pound were weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was firmer, trading around 4.49%, with a mostly higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures remained lower ahead of U.S. gov’t inventory data due later this morning, with U.S. crude around $77.50 per barrel and Brent around $82.25 per barrel. Gold and silver were weaker ahead of U.S. trading, with gold around $2,322 per troy ounce and silver around $27.46 per troy ounce.

— Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin commented on the strong dollar’s current role in the U.S. economy, highlighting its benefits in financing the country’s large fiscal deficits due to its status as the world’s reserve currency. During comments on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin, he mentioned that this strength allows the U.S. to support demand for its Treasuries, which is crucial given the liquid nature of its bond market. However, Mnuchin also noted the limitations and potential risks of relying on a strong dollar long-term. He emphasized the need for the next president to focus on reducing the federal debt, suggesting the establishment of a bipartisan commission to tackle the deficit, which is projected to significantly increase by 2034. Additionally, Mnuchin raised concerns about the enforcement of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, proposing that funds from frozen Russian assets could potentially be used to rebuild Ukraine post-conflict.

Of note: Dollar/yen climbed back above 155 despite fresh warnings from Japanese authorities of repeat intervention to sell dollars.

— Crude oil prices fell to their lowest since March 11 as industry data showed a pile-up of U.S. inventories — a sign of weakening demand — and cautious supply expectations emerged ahead of an OPEC+ policy meeting next month. U.S. crude stocks rose by 509,000 barrels in the week ended May 3, Reuters sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, and gasoline and distillate inventories also rose. Official U.S. government data is due later in the day.

— Santos and Repsol are reportedly considering the sale of minority stakes in several Alaska oilfields they currently co-own, including the highly valued Pikka project. According to Reuters sources, this deal could be worth around $1 billion. The Pikka oilfield alone is estimated to be worth $4.5 billion by Rystad Energy. The potential sale would also cover partial interests in the Horseshoe and Quokka fields located in the North Slope region. These stakes are non-operating, meaning the stakeholder would receive a portion of the revenue from the extracted hydrocarbons without being involved in the operational activities like drilling, although they would need to cover some of the operational costs. ConocoPhillips is seen as a potential primary buyer, especially given their previous interest in acquiring a 15% stake in Pikka from Oil Search before it was bought by Santos. No specific timeline for the deal was mentioned, but Santos has stated their intention to commence production at the project by 2026.

— Much bigger Oklahoma wheat crop expected this year. Oklahoma’s winter wheat crop is estimated at 89.161 million bu. on an average yield of 33.68 bu. per acre, the Oklahoma Wheat Commission said, based on field assessments by Oklahoma State University Extension educators, private crop consultants and area agronomists. The average wheat production estimate among members surveyed at a meeting of the Oklahoma Grain & Feed Association, where the tour numbers were released, was higher at 102.2 million bu. with a yield of 37.3 bu. per acre. Last year, Oklahoma produced a winter wheat crop of 68.6 million bushels. USDA’s initial winter wheat crop estimates will be released Friday.

— Brazil preparing for emergency rice imports. The Brazilian government is preparing a temporary measure to authorize the national crop agency Conab to import up to 1 MMT of rice to control prices after recent flooding Rio Grande do Sul. The special measure was in response to the extensive damage caused by torrential rains in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that normally accounts for around 70% of the Brazil’s rice production. Conab plans to initially import 200,000 MT of rice. If prices stabilize, the government will suspend other imports.

— Ag trade update: Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from Brazil. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from multiple sources. Japan tendered to buy 65,000 MT of feed wheat and 25,000 MT of feed barley.

— Texas Panhandle wildfires have led to preliminary agricultural losses of $123 million, making it the costliest wildfire in state history, according to projections by Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economists (link). The fires, which began on February 26, have burned over 1.2 million acres, resulting in significant damage including the deaths of over 12,000 cattle, lost grazing values, and extensive damage to ranch infrastructure such as fences, barns, and feed stocks. The initial estimates cover losses from February to mid-March. AgriLife Extension continues to provide support and resources to those affected by these historic fires, emphasizing a long-term recovery process. Additional fencing costs and the need for replacements are expected to rise due to increased material costs. Disaster assistance is available through various programs, including those offered by USDA and the Small Business Administration, to help those impacted by the fires.

— NWS weather outlook: There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and over parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on Wednesday.

BALTIMORE BRIDGE COLLAPSE

— Salvage efforts are underway to remove a large section of the Francis Scott Key Bridge that collapsed onto the container ship Dali, according to the Baltimore Sun (link). The operation involves using precision explosive charges to cut through the bridge wreckage. This method, selected over traditional cutting for its speed and safety, involves placing charges on the bridge’s truss while the crew shelters on board the Dali. The use of explosives is considered safer and quicker than manual cutting by crane, which carries risks due to the weight and tension of the truss.

The timing of the explosion depends on other preparatory steps like relocating items on the Dali to ensure its stability post-detonation. Weather conditions, particularly wind and lightning, could also influence the timing. The explosives, likely to be linear shaped charges, are designed to slice through steel quickly and safely, minimizing risk to personnel.

This technique is part of standard practices for marine salvage and demolition, known for its precision and minimal hazard to workers. Following the explosion, the bridge sections are expected to fall into the water and will be subsequently removed by cranes. The operation aims to safely refloat the Dali and clear the channel, with Maryland officials emphasizing the meticulous and complex nature of the task to ensure safety throughout the process.

CONGRESS

— GOP plans budget reconciliation if they sweep Congress. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) indicated that if the GOP wins control of both the House and Senate in the upcoming November elections, they plan to utilize budget reconciliation to advance their legislative priorities. Speaking at BakerHostetler’s legislative summit, Barr highlighted the potential for actions such as extending the 2017 tax law. Budget reconciliation allows for the passage of tax and spending legislation with a simple majority in both chambers of Congress, bypassing the usual 60-vote threshold required in the Senate. This procedural tool has been previously employed by both Republicans, notably for the 2017 tax law, and Democrats, for legislation in 2021 and 2022 covering Covid response and a tax-health-climate change package.

Of note: Republicans would also need to capture the White House, too, for any such reconciliation measure.

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— U.S. has paused a shipment of bombs to Israel amid concerns over their potential use in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million civilians are sheltering. “We are especially focused on the end-use of the 2,000-pound bombs and the impact they could have in dense urban settings as we have seen in other parts of Gaza,” a U.S. official said. Israeli leaders have warned that military operations in the southern city will continue until Hamas is eliminated from “the entire Gaza Strip,” or until the first hostage returns.

Of note: U.S. officials said the shipment included 3,500 bombs, some weighing 2,000 pounds and others weighing 500 pounds. This marks the first time the administration has delayed an arms delivery to Israel since the war began following Hamas’ terror attack Oct. 7. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) criticized the decision to withhold weapons, stating it does not reflect “the will of Congress” following the passage of the latest foreign aid bill last month. Meanwhile, today is the deadline for the State Department to report to Congress on whether Israel’s use of U.S. weapons in Gaza is violating international humanitarian laws. Reuters reports the department is likely to miss this deadline. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is also expected to testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee today, where he will likely face questions about the administration’s policies.

POLICY UPDATE

— Purdue University Survey shows renewable energy production boosting farmland values. A recent survey (link) by Purdue University has highlighted a growing trend among farmers to consider energy production, such as solar, wind, and carbon capture, as a significant factor in increasing land values. Key insights from the survey include:

Increased interest in energy leases: More farmers are exploring leases for solar energy production, with the rates for these leases climbing, indicating a robust interest in renewable energy ventures on agricultural land.
Support for farmland values: According to James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, who manage Purdue’s monthly Ag Economy Barometer, the rising lease rates for energy production are likely to bolster farmland values and expectations of future land value increases.
Farmer sentiment and economic outlook: Despite the potential for land value increases due to energy leases, the overall farmer sentiment experienced a decline. The Ag Economy Barometer dropped 14 points to a score of 99 in the latest survey—the lowest since June 2020. This slump mirrors similar declines observed in the springs of 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.
Significant leasing activity: The survey revealed that 20% of producers are actively involved in discussions to lease farmland for solar electricity generation, up from 14% in April 2023. In terms of financial offers, 58% reported being offered at least $1,000 per acre for solar leases, a significant increase from 27% in June 2021.
Growing solar capacity: Nationally, the installation of solar capacity continues to rise, with a record 33 gigawatts installed last year, bringing the total to 162.8 gigawatts.

The survey, which involved 400 agricultural operators with annual production values of at least $500,000, highlights a crucial shift in the agricultural sector towards renewable energy and its impact on land value and farm economics.

CHINA UPDATE

— TikTok has initiated legal action against a U.S. law recently signed by President Joe Biden, which threatens a nationwide ban of the app. In the lawsuit, TikTok and its parent company, ByteDance, argue that the law is unconstitutional as it infringes on the First Amendment rights by limiting Americans’ freedom of speech and their access to lawful information. This lawsuit marks a significant legal confrontation, focusing on whether U.S. national security concerns regarding TikTok’s connections to China can override the constitutional rights of its 170 million American users. Should TikTok fail to win the lawsuit, it faces the prospect of being banned from U.S. app stores unless ByteDance divests it to a non-Chinese company by mid-January 2025.

— Exports from Taiwan plunged to 4.3% y/y in April from 18.9% in March due to weak Chinese demand but exports to the U.S. hit a record amid strong AI demand. The soft Chinese demand is a concern, but AI optimism is for now offsetting those worries.

— The U.S. Commerce Department revoked export licenses for chip-related goods destined for Huawei Technologies, marking a significant move to restrict the Chinese tech giant’s access to American technology. This decision follows the unveiling of Huawei’s MateBook X Pro laptop, which features an AI chip — Intel’s Core Ultra 9 processor. The launch of this laptop, equipped with such advanced technology, caught U.S. lawmakers off guard. They were surprised and concerned because they believed such high-level tech should not be accessible to Huawei, given existing sanctions. This incident led to increased scrutiny and criticism.

— Recent research has revealed that 19% of merchandise samples sold in the U.S. and globally contain traces of cotton from China’s Xinjiang region, where the use of forced labor in cotton production has led to international bans. The study, conducted by Stratum Reservoir and Applied DNA Sciences, utilized isotopic testing to trace the geographic origins of cotton by analyzing stable elements within the crop and its environment. Out of 822 products tested between February 2023 and March 2024, approximately one-fifth contained Xinjiang cotton. Notably, 57% of the positive samples were from products labeled as “U.S. origin only,” and two-thirds of these items featured cotton blended with other materials from different regions.

Of note: This discovery underscores the challenges in enforcing the 2021 U.S. legislation designed to block the import of products made with Xinjiang cotton due to concerns over forced labor. Additionally, in March alone, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol scrutinized 749 shipments worth over $32 million because of suspected forced labor connections.

Meanwhile, China-founded fashion giant Shein told employees it is stepping up its efforts to keep products made with forced labor off its site, citing tougher U.S. enforcement to screen low-value parcels that previously received little customs scrutiny.

— The U.S. biofuel industry has raised concerns over a surge in imports of used cooking oil from China, suspecting that much of it may be tainted. This influx is problematic as it could disadvantage American farmers and undermine President Joe Biden’s initiative to boost climate-friendly energy solutions. According to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission, imports of used cooking oil, which is a key component in producing renewable diesel, tripled last year, with over half of these imports originating from China. Industry groups and biofuel executives are now urging the U.S. gov’t to increase scrutiny of these imports, amid fears that a significant portion of the supplies could be fraudulent.

— China approves gene-edited wheat for first time. China’s ag ministry approved gene-edited wheat for the first time, as Beijing attempts to boost food security. The ministry also approved a new variety of genetically modified corn with herbicide and insect-resistant traits, as well as one gene-edited corn variety that is higher yielding. The safety certificates have been approved for five years from May 5.

— EU wants China to stop flooding market with ‘massively subsidized’ EVs. Europe needs to prevent China from flooding the market with highly subsidized electric vehicles (EVs), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “Fair competition is good. What we don’t like is when China floods our market with massively subsidized electric cars. And we have to tackle this, we have to protect our industry,” said von der Leyen, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping alongside French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this week. The EU is currently conducting an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs to determine whether to impose punitive tariffs on them.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Companies exploring the transition to electric heavy-duty trucks are facing unexpected high operating costs, as reported by Ryder System CEO Robert Sanchez in the Wall Street Journal (link). Sanchez noted that the adoption of electric trucks has been sluggish due to the steep increase in total operating expenses. Ryder’s analysis showed that while light-duty electric vans only slightly increase annual operating costs, the cost for heavy-duty electric trucks is approximately double that of their diesel counterparts. This cost disparity highlights significant challenges for governments aiming to shift the trucking industry away from diesel to reduce emissions. The situation also indicates that further technological improvements are needed in areas such as battery efficiency, vehicle range, and charging infrastructure to make electric trucks more economically viable.

— The lithium boom. It takes 10,000 smartphone batteries to make one set of EV batteries. With over 350 million global EV sales projected by 2030, demand is soaring.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Food-delivery industry is seeing signs of consolidation as Uber Eats and Instacart enter into a partnership allowing customers to order restaurant food from Uber Eats directly through the Instacart app. This collaboration is strategically designed to compete against DoorDash, which currently leads the U.S. restaurant-delivery market, surpassing Uber Eats. This partnership reflects the ongoing pressures within the food-delivery sector to sustain the growth experienced during the pandemic. Instacart, primarily known for its dominance in grocery delivery, has been actively defending its market share against DoorDash, which expanded into grocery delivery during the pandemic. Despite speculation about a potential merger between Uber and Instacart, Instacart officials have clarified that this partnership does not indicate plans for a merger. Link to more via the Wall Street Journal.

— USDA says neighboring farms do not need to conduct tests for the H5N1 bird flu virus if it is detected in a dairy herd. This directive comes in the context of a new regulation requiring lactating dairy cows to be tested for H5N1 before being shipped across state lines, as part of measures implemented by the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Link/pdf for details.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz just survives bitter primary fight. Spartz survived a contentious primary fight in Indiana’s 5th District. The congresswoman came in first place with 39%, while state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, a wealthy constructive company executive who had loaned his campaign $4.6 million, came in second with 33%. Goodrich had spent millions of dollars on TV ads hammering Spartz for her initial support for Ukraine funding and highlighting coverage of staff mistreatment allegations, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Meanwhile, GOP Sen. Mike Braun won a fractured Republican primary for the open Indiana governor’s seat and is now the heavy favorite in the general election.

— AI warning on elections. “The top line is that AI will exacerbate the threats that exist to our elections.” — Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, speaking on a panel at the RSA Conference Tuesday.

— Here are five potential twists The Hill (link) says could significantly impact the U.S. presidential election before Nov. 5:

Health concerns for Biden or Trump: Both candidates are among the oldest in U.S. history for presidential nominees. There is speculation about the impact a major health event could have on their campaigns, given their ages and the intense demands of the presidency.
Escalation of international conflicts: Current international tensions, especially related to Ukraine and the Middle East, could escalate, pulling the U.S. into more direct involvement. Such developments could significantly affect public opinion and the presidential race.
Rise of third-party candidates: Third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others are gaining traction, potentially disrupting the traditional two-party dominance. If Kennedy, or another third-party candidate, makes it to the debate stage, it could introduce a new dynamic to the election.
Economic downturn or recession: The economy remains a critical issue, with ongoing concerns about inflation and living costs. Any significant economic downturn or shift could influence voter sentiment and alter the campaign strategies of the presidential candidates.
Outcome of Trump’s New York trial: The verdict in Trump’s trial over alleged hush-money payments could have immediate and significant effects on his campaign. Whether acquitted or convicted, the outcome will likely influence voter perception and could sway undecided voters.

— Rural voters, urban districts. Some 72% of rural voters live in congressional districts where the majority of voters are urban or suburban residents, and only 28% are in districts where the majority of voters are rural Americans, according to an analysis of Census data (link for details from Daily Yonder).

Of note: Former House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) recently put a different spin on the matter when he said 92% of the House districts are held by Republican members.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates