The Week Ahead: Dec. 15, 2024
— Ag sector issues impacting release of CR text. Congressional leaders are unlikely to release a short-term continuing resolution (CR) until Monday due to last-minute complications. Republicans are pushing to include an economic assistance package for farmers in the spending bill. This comes as farm district Republicans have warned about a potential economic crisis in rural America, which heavily supported Trump in the last election. The American Farm Bureau Federation and other influential agricultural groups have called on lawmakers to oppose the spending package if it doesn’t include billions in extra farm aid. Meanwhile, Democrats have outlined several demands in exchange for supporting the agricultural program. These include full funding for the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, funding for museums honoring women and Hispanic Americans, support for the Second Chance Act, and a trade program with Haiti. GOP strategy. GOP leaders have indicated that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to pass the entire funding measure and disaster package together via suspension, which requires a two-thirds majority. The collapse of a previous deal to include economic aid for farmers and climate funding for farm conservation programs has further complicated negotiations. Of note: House and Senate Republicans grew upset when they read a statement from House Ag ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.) and Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) which ended by noting: “Republican Leadership turned down this $10 billion proposal, rejecting needed economic assistance and increased conservation spending for decades. It is important to stress that this proposal is paid for and does not take any funding away from the critical natural disaster aid that has been requested. Their eleventh-hour offer fell short of what farmers need, shortchanged critical farm bill programs, and steals from critically needed assistance to address recent natural disasters. We can and should do both economic and disaster assistance, not pit one against the other. The coming onslaught of farm foreclosures and retirement sales is on the Republican Leadership.” Bottom line: The situation remains fluid and it is likely that further developments will emerge before the release of the CR text on Monday. The outcome of these negotiations will have significant implications for the agricultural sector, government funding, and various other programs and initiatives. — ABC News has agreed to pay $15 million toward Donald Trump’s presidential library to settle a lawsuit over anchor George Stephanopoulos’ inaccurate on-air assertion that the president-elect had been found civilly liable for raping writer E. Jean Carroll. There will also be a payment of $1 million for Trump’s attorney fees, according to the settlement. ABC will also post a note on its website expressing regret over the claim in a March 10 segment on This Week, according to a settlement document made public on Saturday. — Economic risks of tariff escalation. A recent analysis by Oxford Economics (link) warns that if former President Trump implements a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, it could edge all three North American trading partners into recession. Additionally, the European Union, already grappling with slow growth in key economies like France and Germany, may face heightened economic strain from further tariff pressures. — South Korea’s political crisis deepens with Yoon’s impeachment. South Korea’s National Assembly impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Dec. 14 with a 204-85 vote, suspending him from office over his controversial Dec. 3-4 martial law declaration. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed the role of acting president as the Constitutional Court reviews the impeachment, a process that could take up to 180 days. Yoon’s impeachment temporarily stabilizes the political landscape in this key U.S. ally, but the uncertainty surrounding the court’s ruling risks reigniting social unrest. If confirmed, South Korea will hold a presidential election within 60 days, with the opposition Democratic Party poised for a likely victory. This shift could thaw relations with North Korea and China while scaling back military collaboration with the U.S. and Japan. Conversely, a mistrial or a hung court could trigger violent protests, disrupting the nation’s economy and rekindling public outrage over past martial law abuses. — Milei plans to attend Trump’s inauguration, eyes closer U.S. ties. Argentine President Javier Milei is set to attend President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, marking a rare move for a foreign leader. A Trump admirer, Milei attended a post-election celebration at Mar-a-Lago in November and has expressed ambitions to strengthen U.S./Argentina relations under Trump’s administration. Milei’s administration plans to negotiate a free trade agreement with the U.S. and hopes Trump’s presidency will help secure expanded IMF support for Argentina’s struggling economy. — East Coast port update. The next critical date for negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is Jan. 15, 2025. This date marks the expiration of the current contract extension and serves as a deadline for reaching a new agreement. If a resolution is not achieved by this date, there is a significant risk of renewed strike action by the ILA, which could potentially disrupt operations at major East and Gulf Coast ports. The Jan. 15 deadline was set after a tentative agreement on wages was reached on Oct. 3, following a three-day strike in early October. This agreement included a short-term contract extension to allow time for further negotiations on outstanding issues, particularly regarding port automation. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent backing of the ILA highlights a key economic debate: who truly benefits from automation, and at what cost? The core of the debate lies in the tension between technological progress and worker welfare. On one side, shipping companies and port operators argue that automation is necessary for improving efficiency, reducing costs, and maintaining competitiveness. On the other, the ILA and its supporters contend that automation threatens jobs, community stability, and even national security But the battle over automation at East and Gulf Coast ports is less about technology and more about fairness, say some analysts. Economist Ronald Coase’s theories suggest that if automation is genuinely efficient, its benefits should easily fund the compensation of displaced workers. Yet, the resistance from port employers signals the gains might be overhyped. Trump’s stance reframes automation as a Coasean challenge: progress must account for the harm it causes, ensuring displaced workers are compensated. This approach rejects corporate trends of prioritizing profits over people, marking a pivotal moment in labor relations and shaping how future technological shifts, like AI, are handled. By demanding accountability, Trump’s support for dockworkers isn’t anti-progress, say some observers — it’s a call for a fairer, more sustainable vision of economic growth. Link for details of this analysis. Resolving this dilemma will require a nuanced approach that balances technological progress with worker protection. Possible solutions include: — Enbridge cleans up 60% of Wisconsin oil spill amid pipeline controversy. Canadian energy company Enbridge has reported the cleanup of approximately 60% of a 70,000-gallon oil spill from its Line 6 pipeline in Wisconsin. The spill, discovered on Nov. 11 during a routine inspection, was attributed to a faulty connection on a pump transfer pipe at the Enbridge Cambridge Station near Milwaukee. The defect has since been repaired, and cleanup efforts continue under the oversight of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Line 6 is a 465-mile pipeline transporting crude oil from Superior, Wisconsin, to Griffith, Indiana. The incident coincided with the Wisconsin DNR’s approval of a controversial plan to replace and reroute segments of Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline, including a section bypassing tribal lands of the Bad River Reservation. Environmental advocates and tribal leaders have raised concerns about the ecological risks posed by these aging pipelines, urging stronger federal action to address potential threats to water sources and ecosystems. — Political posturing takes center stage at Army/Navy game. While Navy defeated Army on the field, the real gameplay on Saturday unfolded far from the turf, as President-elect Donald Trump and his political allies turned the annual service academy matchup into a high stakes showcase of alliances and power moves. Trump’s entourage: Trump appeared with embattled nominees Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary), Tulsi Gabbard (National Intelligence Director), and Kash Patel (FBI Director), signaling unwavering support despite controversies. Also by his side: Vice President-elect JD Vance, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and high-profile figures like Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (Pa.). DeSantis’ calculated moves: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen on the sidelines, avoided Trump’s spotlight but made his presence known by mingling with Medal of Honor recipients and West Point cadets. Notably absent from Trump’s team’s photo ops, DeSantis’ role remains strategic as Trump eyes his potential Senate appointments. Key symbolism: Trump’s visible support for controversial nominees and his interaction with figures like Gen. CQ Brown, Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, sent a message of confidence in his upcoming administration’s priorities. The game served as more than a sporting event — it was a stage for political positioning, alliances, and quiet power plays as the next administration takes shape. — Republicans surge in state legislatures, setting stage for 2025 battles. Republicans made notable gains in state legislative elections, reversing Democratic advances from the previous year. Key victories include flipping Michigan’s state House and expanding majorities in New Hampshire and Vermont. However, losses in Wisconsin and Montana and the GOP’s failure to maintain a supermajority in North Carolina highlight a mixed picture. Democrats gained 14 seats in the Wisconsin state legislature — putting them closer toward potentially flipping the state Senate in 2026 — and 11 seats between the two chambers in Montana. Total state legislative chambers: There are 98 partisan legislative chambers across the states (excluding Nebraska’s unicameral legislature, which is nonpartisan). Republicans control 57 chambers. They hold a majority in 22 states where they control both legislative chambers and the governorship (known as trifectas). Democrats control 41 chambers. They have trifectas in 17 states. Divided government: There are 10 states with divided government, meaning that different parties control different branches of government within those states. In terms of specific chambers: Republican success stemmed from targeted strategies emphasizing policy over national campaigns, while Democrats capitalized on competitive redistricting in key states. Special elections in Virginia will test whether GOP momentum extends beyond November. As 2025 races loom, both parties face mounting pressure to deliver on campaign promises to retain voter support. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Lawmakers this week will “race” to get a continuing resolution (CR) agreed to before the Dec. 20 timeline for stopgap spending for fiscal year (FY) 2025 that began Oct. 1. The ag sector awaits final decisions on disaster aid, a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, and whether a last-minute compromise will produce billions in farmer aid.
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on interest rates takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday and a 25-basis point cut in rates is widely expected. Key: Will the Fed signal a pause ahead in cutting rates?
The new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3. And President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration day is Jan. 20.
— Farm-state lawmakers and farm groups made their clout known over the weekend when they made clear to congressional leaders that they would not support a CR without farmer aid funding. The opposition was strong enough that it stymied release of CR text that was originally scheduled for Sunday.
Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) on Saturday released the following statement regarding ongoing efforts to secure agriculture disaster assistance in the CR being prepared by the Senate Appropriations Committee. As Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Appropriations Committee, Hoeven is working with his colleagues to address producer losses resulting from natural disasters and challenging markets.
“As farmers have faced growing and serious losses this year, we have put forward a package of $12 billion of relief for economic losses and $16 billion in weather-related assistance that we’re working to secure in the end-year Continuing Resolution. Republican leadership has supported this offer, and we have made a straightforward proposal to Democratic leadership to come to the aid of farmers and ranchers across the country. While we have kept this proposal clean of potentially partisan additions, we have not yet received the Democratic support we need. We encourage the nation’s farmers, ranchers, and agriculture stakeholders to let their representatives know how critical it is for the Continuing Resolution to include both economic and weather agriculture assistance for America’s producers,” said Hoeven.
— House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) floor schedule for this week includes a “supplemental pay-for” bill, alongside consideration of the fiscal year (FY) 2025 continuing resolution (CR). The House Freedom Caucus (who bill themselves as the most conservative faction in the chamber) has been demanding offsets for the disaster aid piece of the CR, which could end up close to $100 billion (see related item below).
Scalise said a one-year extension of the farm bill is currently in the package. But it’s not clear if that will be a straight extension without any policy changes, like last year, or if negotiators were able to reach a breakthrough on using conservation funds provided by the 2022 IRA/Climate Act.
If the CR package text is released Monday, that sets up a Thursday floor vote in the House, possibly under suspension (leaders previously wanted a Wednesday vote). Then onto the Senate.
The Senate also must finish action on the NDAA this week. There’s a Monday cloture vote scheduled now, which means a vote on final passage for Wednesday — unless a deal is reached to speed up that timetable.
— Negotiators were still working this weekend on the disaster aid title of the package, which House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said would be “in the 90s” in terms of billions of dollars. The White House requested a total of nearly $115 billion in disaster aid. Top Republicans have been trying to limit dollars to the most urgent disaster needs.
— House Democrats to Select Ag panel ranking member. The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee will choose a ranking member for the House Ag Committee on Monday. Current top Democrat David Scott of Georgia faces challenges from Jim Costa of California and Angie Craig of Minnesota. Sources signal if there is a change, Costa could have the votes.
Costa is a third-generation farmer with 20 years of experience on the Agriculture Committee. Has played a key role in crafting three farm bills (2008, 2014, and 2018). He has received endorsements from over 75 organizations.
Craig is a more junior member of the Ag Committee, elected to Congress in 2018. She emphasizes the need for new leadership and a fresh perspective. She is positioning herself as a champion for bipartisan cooperation and standing firm on Democratic priorities.
— Trump urged to resolve GOP disagreement on 2025 legislative agenda. President-elect Donald Trump faces mounting pressure from House Republicans to mediate a growing divide within the GOP over its legislative strategy. At the heart of the impasse is whether to prioritize a tax reconciliation bill or a border security, energy and defense package.
Another option is to have the first reconciliation measure focus just on border security. House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said Friday he sees “a lot of momentum” for passing a smaller, filibuster-proof budget reconciliation bill focused on border enforcement early in the new year, before Republicans turn their attention to expiring tax cuts and perhaps energy and defense issues. “I think it would be easier to pass the economic package with tax and spending reforms, if we had border,” Arrington said. “However, that process to get to the bigger one could take some time, and I don’t want the president to feel like he doesn’t have the tools and resources to start on Day 1 at closing the border and righting the wrongs of the past on illegal immigration.”
House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) favors addressing tax reforms first, emphasizing the urgency of extending key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans, led in the next Congress by incoming Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), advocate starting with border policy, citing its broad party support and potential for quick wins ahead of the midterms.
Under Thune’s plan, Congress would take up a reconciliation bill boosting funding for border security early in the new year, which could also include increased spending for defense and energy provisions. Arrington said under the two-pronged strategy, Congress could adopt a budget resolution kicking off the reconciliation process in the “first several days, if not [first] couple of weeks in January.” (Veteran congressional watchers laugh at predicting quick work on anything from Congress.)
Trump has yet to clarify his position, though he signaled support for advancing tax cuts within his first 100 days. House members are looking to him to unify the party and guide the legislative course, balancing policy ambitions against looming fiscal challenges and electoral considerations.
Republicans delayed action on tax cuts during Trump’s first term until December 2017, instead focusing on an unsuccessful attempt to overturn the 2010 health care law. The delay meant that the economic benefits weren’t felt until early 2019, after Republicans lost the House in the 2018 midterm elections, said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform. “Imagine you are a small businessman with a factory and 80 workers. Important to your town. Are you going to hire more workers? Expand your plant and equipment? You don’t know,” Norquist said. “Every day Congress waits to make the tax cuts permanent is a day that decisions to create jobs today, tomorrow, and two years from now are being made. Or not.”
— RFK Jr. will make the Senate rounds in push to get enough votes to be HHS nominee. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary, is stirring debate on Capitol Hill. While Kennedy’s record includes liberal stances on corporate oversight, climate change, and income inequality, his controversial views — especially his staunch opposition to vaccines — are causing deep concern among Democratic senators and some Republicans.
Despite occasional alignment on issues like food industry regulation and public health advocacy, progressives such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) argue Kennedy’s conspiratorial beliefs disqualify him from leading HHS. Moderate voices, like Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), acknowledge common ground but remain wary of his track record on vaccines and public health.
Even some Republicans, typically needed for his confirmation, are cautious due to Kennedy’s past support for abortion access and opposition to agricultural practices (anti-GMO seed, pesticides, etc.). Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), both advocates for vaccines, have voiced strong opposition to Kennedy’s anti-vaccine rhetoric. How some farm-state lawmakers vote on RFJ Jr. could help determine his fate. These includes Sens. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and John Boozman (R-Ark.). Another key GOP vote is Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Cassidy, a doctor and incoming chair of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, has rejected claims attempting to link vaccines and autism, which HHS pick Kennedy has shared in the past — but has said he’s looking forward “to learning more” about Kennedy’s “other policy positions.”
Ultra-processed foods: a test for Kennedy. Ultra-processed foods, comprising nearly 60% of the average American diet, are under scrutiny for their role in obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. These foods — often made with industrial ingredients like high-fructose corn syrup and emulsifiers — are convenient but linked to serious health issues. While countries like Brazil and France have implemented guidelines to reduce ultra-processed food consumption, the U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) has refrained from making similar recommendations, citing insufficient research. Presidential candidate Kennedy has taken a proactive stance, framing ultra-processed foods as a significant contributor to the obesity epidemic and signaling his intent to push for stricter regulations — potentially setting the stage for a transformative shift in U.S. food policy.
RFK Jr. has taken a strong stance against GMO products and pesticides, viewing them as significant threats to public health and the environment:
Opposition to GMOs: Kennedy has expressed skepticism about genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture. He advocates for stricter regulations and labeling of GMO products, aligning with his broader critique of modern agricultural practices. His views on GMOs are part of his larger agenda to transform U.S. agriculture into what he describes as an “organic, regenerative utopia.”
Pesticide concerns: Kennedy has been particularly vocal about the dangers of pesticides. He claims that there are approximately 1,000 ingredients in American food that are banned in Europe, many of which are pesticides. Kennedy has vowed to “weaponize” regulatory agencies to eliminate the use of pesticides. He argues that pesticides are a major contributor to chronic diseases and environmental degradation. Kennedy has specifically targeted glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup weed killer, linking it to various health issues including celiac disease and gluten allergies.
Regulatory approach. If given the opportunity to influence policy, Kennedy has indicated he would:
• Push for stricter regulations on pesticides and GMOs.
• Advocate for more research into the health impacts of these agricultural practices.
• Support legal actions against companies producing pesticides and GMOs.
• Work to reverse “80 years of agricultural policy” that he believes has degraded soil through “chemical-based farming.
Of note: Many of Kennedy’s claims about GMOs and pesticides are controversial within the scientific community. While he cites some studies to support his positions, many agricultural and health experts dispute his interpretations and conclusions. The agricultural industry has pushed back against his views, arguing that modern farming practices, including the use of GMOs and certain pesticides, are safe and necessary for food security.
Bottom line: With the ag sector more than skittish about RFJ Jr., it will be interesting to see how many senators from farm states vote for him. Many in the ag sector think this is a critical vote that will resonate if the controversial candidates gets approved.
— Trump allies worry over potentially narrowed deportation agenda. President-elect Donald Trump, initially promising the largest mass deportation in U.S. history, has since narrowed his focus to targeting immigrants with criminal records, raising concerns among hard-line supporters about a diluted effort, the Wall Street Journal reports (link).
Incoming border czar Tom Homan emphasized a “targeted enforcement operation” rather than mass raids, citing resource constraints and practicality.
Considerations include the impact on key sectors like agriculture and housing, as well as bipartisan support for protecting groups like Dreamers.
Critics within Trump’s circle worry a limited approach could fail to deter illegal immigration and align too closely with policies under the Biden administration.
Deportation plans face obstacles such as legal constraints for migrants awaiting hearings and lack of cooperation in blue states and cities. Still, hard-line immigration advocates continue to pressure the president-elect to fulfill broader campaign promises while acknowledging the logistical and political complexities involved.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Dec. 16
· President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the Labor Department.
· Trump outlook. Government Executive Media Group discussion on “Trump and GovCon: Prepping for 2025 and Beyond,” focusing on “the latest intelligence on the emerging Trump administration and the impact of the ongoing presidential transition on government management practices and the acquisition landscape.”
· FTC litigation. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Is FTC Administrative Litigation Constitutional?”
· U.S./Turkey relations. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “Power Plays: U.S./Turkey Relations Under Trump.”
· Climate financing. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Innovative Climate Finance in 2025: Evaluating Guarantee Mechanism,” focusing on emerging markets and developing economies.
· National and economic security. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on “shaping and implementing policy at the intersection of national and economic security.”
Tuesday, Dec. 17
· Leveraging AI. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “how to responsibly leverage AI for good.”
· Clean energy report. Environmental and Energy Study Institute virtual briefing on a new Energy Department Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy report, “Clean Energy Developments Yield Major Benefits.”
· Homeland security and China. Hudson Institute discussion on “Homeland Security and the China Challenge.”
· Sports gambling. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “America’s High-Stakes Bet on Legalized Sports Gambling.”
· Post-Assad outlook for Syria. Arab Center virtual discussion on “Syria After Assad: Domestic and Regional Challenges.”
· South Korea situation. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “South Korea’s Political Crisis.”
· Immigration and other issues. Business Council for International Understanding discussion on the evolving security and defense landscape in the Western Hemisphere, focusing on issues including elections in Mexico, Venezuela, and the U.S., escalating security challenges in Ecuador and Haiti, the rise of organized crime, illegal migration, and U.S. immigration policy under the Trump Administration.
· Antitrust issues. Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee hearing on “Continuing a Bipartisan Path Forward for Antitrust Enforcement and Reform.”
· Election impacts. Common Good virtual discussion on “Election Aftershock: Takeaways & Turning Points.”
Wednesday, Dec. 18
· Trump tariffs.Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Trade Wars & Higher Costs: The Case Against Trump’s Tariffs.”
· Immigration and the U.S. economy. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on a new report, “Immigration Policy Solutions to Shortages in Critical Sectors of the U.S. Economy.”
· BRICs. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Cooperation: An Alternative to the Current Global Order?”
· NATO alliance. Atlantic Council discussion on “The NATO perspective: Strengthening resilience within the Alliance.”
· Subsea cables security. Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on “Security and Resilience: The Strategic Future of Subsea Cables.”
· Fentanyl overdoses. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on the decline in fentanyl related overdose deaths in 2024.
· Election interference. House Administration Committee hearing on “American Confidence in Elections: Prohibiting Foreign Interference.”
· Climate issues. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Next to the Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis is Here and Getting Worse.”
· China IP issues. House Judiciary Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet Subcommittee hearing on “IP and Strategic Competition with China: Part IV —Patents, Standards, and Lawfare.”
· USITC nominations. Senate Finance Committee hearing on the nominations of James Bernard Coughlan, Halie Craig and William Patrick Kimmitt to be members of the U.S. International Trade Commission.
· U.S./Israel relations Friedlander Group congressional luncheon marking the adjournment of the 118th Congress and the various legislative initiatives impacting the U.S. Israel relationship.
· Consumer trends. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “2025 Customer Trends Every Small Business Should Know.”
Thursday, Dec. 19
· 5G and 6G. Federal Communications Commission meeting of the FCC’s Technological Advisory Council for continued efforts at looking beyond 5G advanced as 6G begins to develop so as to facilitate U.S. leadership
· Prevailing wages. Office of Personnel Management virtual meeting of the Federal Prevailing Rate Advisory Committee to discuss various agenda items related to the determination of prevailing wage rates for the Federal Wage System.
Friday, Dec. 20
· EPA communities panels. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the Local Government Advisory Committee’s Small Communities Advisory Subcommittee to discuss several priority issues at the EPA and its implications on smaller towns, such as climate communication, environmental justice and water issues.
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
Upcoming week: Rate decisions, inflation data, and earnings reports. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting on Wednesday (Dec. 18), with markets anticipating a quarter-point rate cut. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan will announce their monetary-policy decisions on Thursday.
Economic highlights include S&P Global’s December Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday, Census Bureau’s November retail sales data on Tuesday, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ November PCE price index on Friday.
Earnings reports to watch: Birkenstock Holding, Lennar, and Micron Technology (Wednesday); Accenture, Cintas, FedEx, and Nike (Thursday); and Carnival (Friday).
Monday, Dec. 16
• Empire State Manufacturing
• PMI Composite Flash
Tuesday, Dec. 17
• Retail Sales
• Business Inventories
• Industrial Production
• Housing Market Index
Wednesday, Dec. 18
• Housing Starts
• Current Account
• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
• Fed Meeting Conclusion
• Updated Fed Forecasts
• Fed Chair Press Conference
Thursday, Dec. 19
• Jobless Claims
• GDP
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
• Existing Home Sales
• Leading Indicators
• KC Fed Manufacturing
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
Friday, Dec. 20
• Personal Income & Outlays
• Consumer Confidence
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
Ag focus: The European Commission’s monthly crop conditions report is scheduled for Monday, while China’s second batch of trade data for November will be published Wednesday. USDA’s latest look at food prices comes Friday.
Energy focus: China will publish a range of data on energy output and trading during the week. European ministers will discuss a wide variety of energy- and environment-related issues at meetings in Brussels.
Monday, Dec. 16
Ag reports and events:
• Export Inspections
• JRC MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• Export Inspections
• Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
• Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
Energy reports and events:
• China November industrial output figures, including coal, gas and power generation; crude oil and refining
• EU energy ministers meet in Brussels to discuss geothermal energy, future of energy policy and grids action plan
• IEFA’s Conference of Paris (through Dec. 17)
• Angola preliminary program for February crude exports due
• WTI January options expire
• Holidays: Kazakhstan, South Africa
Tuesday, Dec. 17
Ag reports and events:
• French agriculture ministry’s report on grains
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vegetables and Pulses Data
• Fruit & Tree Nut Data
Energy reports and events:
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• EU environment ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the 2040 climate target
• Cercle de Giverny conference on energy transition, Paris
• IEFA’s Conference of Paris (last day)
Wednesday, Dec. 18
Ag reports and events:
• China’s 2nd batch of Nov. trade data, including agricultural imports
• FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet
• Coffee: World Markets and Trade
• Broiler Hatchery
• Potato Stocks
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
• China November output data for base metals and oil products
• China second batch of November trade data, including LNG and pipeline gas imports; oil products trade breakdown
• WTI CSOs for January expire
• Holiday: Qatar
Thursday, Dec. 19
Ag reports and events:
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Export Sales
• Food Expenditure Series
• Livestock Slaughter
• Milk Production
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
• Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
• EU leaders meet in Brussels to discuss issues including Ukraine, Middle East
• WTI January futures expire
Friday, Dec. 20
Ag reports and events:
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• China’s 3rd batch of Nov. trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• Malaysia’s Dec. 1-20 palm oil exports
• Food Price Outlook
• Dairy: World Markets and Trade
• Cotton Ginnings
• Cattle on Feed
• Chickens & Eggs
• Hops
• North American Potatoes
• County Estimates - Barley, Oats, Wheat
• Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• China third batch of November trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |