Sen. Manchin Pulls Plug on Climate and Tax Talks ALL

Potential CARB changes could impact soy use | China GDP underwhelms

Chinese stocks closed broadly lower after the country recorded its slowest growth rate in more than two years, highlighting the impact of zero-Covid policies. The country’s statistics bureau warned that the Chinese economy could suffer from the “risk of stagflation in the world economy.” With the annual growth target of 5.5% out of reach, how will policymakers react? On Tuesday, Li Keqiang gathered economists and business leaders to discuss that very question. The meeting was in preparation for the Politburo’s quarterly confab on the economy, which will be held later this month, Meanwhile, a growing number of homebuyers across China are halting mortgage payments until developers resume construction of unfinished apartments.

U.S. shoppers boosted retail spending in June by 1% as inflation reached a new four-decade high.

Rail labor will strike Monday if President Biden does not intervene.

USDA daily export sale: 133,000 metric tons of corn to China during 2022-2023 marketing year.

Western weapons have boosted Ukraine’s fortunes in battling Russia’s invasion, but it remains unclear whether those arms will enable Kyiv to turn the tide, say Western officials. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese firms are selling Russia goods that its military needs to keep fighting in Ukraine

Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he wouldn’t back climate or tax measures in an economic package Democrats are trying to advance. That confirms reports earlier this week of a much scaled-back attempt by Democrats for more spending. Still possible: lowering the price of prescription drugs and a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies.

President Biden’s Middle East trip continues today, as he arrives in Saudi Arabia and is set to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Hours before Biden was expected to arrive, Saudi Arabia announced new rules that will allow commercial planes from Israel to fly over the kingdom, a conciliatory step sought by the U.S.

Fed official says 0.75-point interest-rate rise seems most likely in July. Now there is chatter about a possible interim-FOMC meeting August hike in rates.

The Federal Reserve’s inspector general found that Jerome Powell and Richard Clarida didn’t trade improperly. The agency said the central bank leader and his former second-in-command didn’t make improper financial trades while serving in their leadership roles, but it did flag some ways their market activities inadvertently conflicted with central bank rules.

Potential CARB changes could impact soy use. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is considering cutting back on the use of food oils (soy, canola) for generating Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits. A source told us, “A limit on biofuel produced from crops would have a relatively minor impact on soyoil demand. Any change to their carbon intensity targets seems like a longer-term (post-2030) deal. Still, if they do not adopt the volume cap, CARB may revise the carbon intensity score for soybean oil, which would have a more limited impact on soybean oil demand and might even raise demand.” Details in Energy section.

WTI crude oil tumbled below $91 on Thursday — erasing all the gains seen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — though U.S. gasoline prices remain expensive at the pump, averaging $4.58 per gallon nationwide.

Italian President Sergio Mattarella rejected Mario Draghi’s resignation offer on Thursday, after the Italian prime minister failed to receive support from the Five Star movement on a social spending bill, fracturing Draghi’s multiparty coalition.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings. Citigroup reported quarterly profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while BlackRock and Wells Fargo missed estimates. Share prices were mixed in Asia after China reported its economy contracted by 2.6% in the last quarter as virus shutdowns kept businesses closed and people at home. In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong -2.2%. China -1.6%. India +0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +1.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow fell 142.62 points, 0.46%, at 30,630.17. The Nasdaq edged up 3.60 points, 0.03%, at 11,251.19. The S&P 500 lost 11.40 points, 0.30%, at 3,790.38.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn futures closed up 5 3/4 cents at $6.01 and near mid-range.
• Soy complex: After coming under general pressure, the soy complex traded well off its daily lows. November soybeans settled down 8 1/2 cents at $13.41, while August bean oil lost 86 points to close at 58.14 cents per pound. August soymeal edged up $1.70, closing at $438.90.
• Wheat: The wheat complex closed lower for the fourth consecutive trading session. September Soft Red Wheat ended the day 15 3/4 cents lower at $7.95. September Hard red wheat 13 1/2 lower, closing at $8.48 3/4. September spring wheat down 2 3/4 cents, closing at $9.10 3/4.
• Cotton: December cotton futures closed down the 400-point daily trading limit at 83.71 cents and hit a 10-month low.
• Cattle: Cattle futures came under pressure Thursday, with August live cattle falling $1.475 to $135.40 and August feeders tumbling $1.90 to $178.90.
• Hogs: The expiring July hog contract (which goes off the board at noon today) edged up 42.5 cents to close at $114.925. The deferred contracts turned lower, with most-active August sinking 92.5 cents to $109.575.
  

Ag markets today: Modest corrective buying was seen in the corn, soybean and wheat markets overnight as traders continued to monitor weather and macroeconomics. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 4 to 6 cents higher and winter wheat futures were fractionally to 2 cents higher and spring wheat was 3 to 5 cents higher. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around $1.35 higher and the U.S. dollar index was more than 200 points lower.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. retail sales for June, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to increase 0.9% from the prior month. UPDATE: Shoppers boosted retail spending in June by 1% even though they faced higher inflation and an uncertain economic outlook. June’s increase came after sales declined slightly in May, the Commerce Department said.
• New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to decline to minus 2 in July from minus 1.2 one month earlier.
• U.S. import prices for June, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to rise 0.7% from the prior month.
• U.S. industrial production for June, due at 9:15 a.m. ET, is expected to be unchanged from the prior month.
• U.S. business inventories for May, due at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to increase 1.4% from the prior month.
• University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for the opening weeks of July, due at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to hold at 50, unchanged from its end-June reading.
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic on global uncertainty at 8:45 a.m. ET, and St. Louis’s James Bullard on the economic outlook at 9 a.m. ET.
• President Joe Biden will discuss oil supply and regional security on a trip to Saudi Arabia, a country he once vowed to make a “pariah” after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. On Thursday Biden and Israel’s prime minister, Yair Lapid, signed a joint pledge to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear arms.

Volatility in what Fed’s next rate hike will be. The odds of a 1 percentage point hike were at 83% early Thursday, but later dropped to about 45% following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. “We don’t want to make snap policy decision based on some knee-jerk reaction to what happened in the CPI report,” Waller said.

President Biden is set to ask Saudi Arabia to pump even more, in the latest effort to tame high energy prices that are weighing on the economy. According to the International Energy Agency, the Saudis and UAE are the only two producers with significant spare capacity, holding just under 3M barrels a day of idle output between them (about 3% of global demand).

Rail labor will strike Monday if President Biden does not intervene. President Biden has until the end of July 17 to appoint a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) to create a proposed settlement between rail carriers and rail labor. The rail industry’s 12 labor unions, which represent 125,000 employees, and most Class I railroads began the bargaining process more than two years ago to amend unionized rail worker wages, benefits and work rules. The National Mediation Board became involved earlier this year but ended mediation on June 17 starting a 30-day cooling-off period. Rail labor has voted to strike on Monday in the event President Biden does not appoint a PEB.

Background. If appointed, a PEB has 30 days to make settlement recommendations. Lockouts/strikes are prohibited during that time and for 30 days following the release of the report. If rail carriers or rail labor reject the PEB recommendations, Congress can intervene, which it did in 1992 by creating a bill forbidding a lockout/strike.

In a July 1 letter to President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, NGFA and other shipper groups urged the administration to establish a PEB to “prevent catastrophic disruptions to the freight rail network.” The rail network is experiencing significant service disruptions, the shippers noted, and an additional disruption of rail service related to a labor dispute would “push an already stressed rail network to the brink” and have immediate impacts on the nation’s supply chain. “It is of critical importance to all sectors of the economy that these parties reach an amicable agreement and avoid any service disruption,” the letter noted. “Any rail work stoppage in the United States would exacerbate the ongoing supply chain challenges, upend the U.S. economy and hurt American consumers and jobs.”

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.93%. U.S. crude was around $97.20 per barrel and Brent around $100.90 per barrel.

• Oil prices fell Thursday to trade at levels not seen since before the war in Ukraine began. Brent traded as low as $94.50 per barrel, while WTI fell as low as $90.56, although prices for both benchmarks have since recovered. Oil markets have been extremely volatile in recent weeks, but prices have fallen overall, bringing retail fuel prices down in concert. Brent has traded from anywhere between $99 and $118 per barrel since the end of June.

• Numbers put on a growing copper shortfall. S&P Global is charting out how a looming supply gap for copper is working against industry and threatening to keep countries’ net-zero goals out of reach. The firm released a new study (link) concluding that, on the current trajectory of mine capacity utilization and recycling rates, the globe would annually be short nearly 10 million metric tons of the copper it needs for products like EVs, batteries, and charging stations starting in year 2035 due to an estimated tripling of copper demand over that period. “Even under the study’s optimistic High Ambition Scenario — which assumes aggressive growth in capacity utilization rates and all-time high recycling levels — the copper market will endure persistent supply deficits through most of the 2030s, including a deficit of nearly 1.6 million metric tons in 2035,” S&P said in a summary.

• Ag trade: The Philippines purchased 110,000 MT of feed wheat expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region, European Union or Australia; it made no purchase in its tender to buy 50,000 MT of corn.

• NWS weather: Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States... ...Heavy rains and possible flash flooding for portions of the Intermountain West and Gulf Coast region.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Mild price strength overnight
• Rains falling on some areas this morning
• Russia: Document to resume Ukraine grain exports nearly ready (details next section)
• Seasonal decline expected in NOPA crush data
• French wheat harvest advancing quickly
• China soybean auctions continue
• China to limit phosphate exports via quotas (details in China section)
• Limited cash cattle sales
• August hogs at discount to cash index

— Summary: Russian missiles struck the city of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine on Thursday, killing at least 23 people, including three children, according to Ukrainian officials. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, called it an “act of terrorism.” Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen condemned Russia’s “brutal and unjust war” ahead of a meeting today between finance leaders from the G20, to be attended by Russian officials. Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland went a step further, telling the Russian officials: “It is not only generals who commit war crimes, it is the economic technocrats who allow the war to happen and to continue.”

• U.S. State Department Thursday issued an updated fact sheet (link) on Russia Sanctions and Agricultural Trade, insisting that the U.S. “has not imposed sanctions on the production, manufacturing, sale, or transport of agricultural commodities (including fertilizer), agricultural equipment, or medicine relating to the Russian Federation (Russia). In addition, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued a broad general license (GL) to authorize certain transactions related to agricultural commodities, agricultural equipment, medicine, and medical devices.”

• Russia: Document to resume Ukraine grain exports nearly ready. Russia’s proposals on how to bring about a resumption of Ukrainian grain exports were “largely supported” by negotiators taking part in talks this week in Istanbul, the Russian defense ministry said on Friday, and an agreement was close. The ministry said work on what it calls the “Black Sea Initiative” will be finalized soon. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations are due to sign a deal next week aimed at resuming Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports. As we noted yesterday, there are many hurdles ahead even if an agreement is signed and experts have cautioned an agreement will not have an immediate impact. It will take time to ensure there are no mines in the Black Sea shipping channel, and then to get cargo ships to Odesa and other Black Sea ports.

  Bottom line: Grain trader and analyst Richard Crow says “the market [believes] the export plan for Ukraine will be done and executed.”
  

— Thune, Klobuchar call on USDA to improve disaster assistance (ERP) for producers. Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), members of the Senate Ag Committee, led several of their colleagues in requesting that USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack address implementation issues with the Emergency Relief Program (ERP), which helps producers offset the impacts of natural disasters that occurred in 2020 and 2021. “USDA’s work in implementing the ERP to help farmers and ranchers who suffered disaster-related losses in 2020 and 2021 has been meaningful to producers around the country,” said the senators. “We appreciate your efforts to streamline the process by allowing the Farm Service Agency to use data already on record with the Risk Management Agency, which has been helpful in expediting the process. We write to bring to your attention issues that have come up with ERP implementation and to request that USDA address these issues expeditiously.”

The letter (link) was also signed by Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

The first issue concerns many producers who, because their cause of loss was attributed to a 2019 event, have Prevented Plant indemnities that were not captured under ERP to receive the top up payments even though farmers suffering losses from the same cause of loss were made eligible because the loss was attributed to a 2020 event.

The second issue concerns how certain producers’ adjusted gross income is calculated in order to be eligible for the higher payment limitation under the program.

The senators also noted that they have “heard producers who purchased supplemental crop insurance coverage, such as Supplemental Coverage Option, must wait to receive ERP assistance until the fall, while many producers who did not purchase supplemental coverage may have already received their ERP assistance.”

Comments: On AGI issues, it is strange that ERP is there to help producers suffering losses but if the losses are so deep that they have a negative AGI they lose ERP benefits under a technicality. That turns logic on its head. On farm machinery or equipment sales, clearly that should be counted as farm income but instead farmers must prove 66.66% of income came from farming outside of machinery or equipment sales before such sales can count as farm income. Again, strange ruling. We have quoted tax experts have been alerting USDA that this is a big problem, and it works an inequity on farmers. Hopefully they fix these and other issues raised in the Thune/Klobuchar letter.

— Manchin: No new tax hikes, climate spending in latest package. Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) told Democratic leaders Thursday that he would not support an economic package that contains new spending on climate measures or new tax increases. Manchin told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) he’s only willing to support legislation to lower prescription drug prices and extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. That was the signal from other sources earlier this week.

Outlook: With Democrats expected to fare poorly in November’s midterm elections, it’s likely that any U.S. moves on climate change will need to come solely from presidential authority.

— Schumer preparing for a vote on scaled-back USICA/China bill next week. Schumer has told senators to expect a preliminary vote next week on a pared-back China competition bill that would include at least $52 billion in incentives and an investment-tax credit for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Schumer expects to hold a vote as early as Tuesday to begin debate on the legislation, but it is unclear whether there are the 60 votes necessary to push past any filibuster by opponents.

— Fed watchdog clears Powell in trading probe. The Federal Reserve’s Inspector General said Chair Jerome Powell and former Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s trading activity had not broken any laws or rules, but the probe into the former heads of the Dallas and Boston regional Fed banks was ongoing. The Fed unveiled tough new rules restricting the trading activities of senior officials following an embarrassing ethics scandal last year that prompted demands from U.S. lawmakers for change. Then-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and his Dallas counterpart Robert Kaplan stepped down last year after questions were raised about their unusual trading activity during 2020 as the Fed fought to shield the economy from the pandemic.

— New school nutrition leader. Lori Adkins, a child nutrition consultant for a large school district in Michigan, was named president of the School Nutrition Association, which represents school food directors. Link for details.

— China’s economic growth slowed considerably. The country’s GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, the worst showing since 1992 (excluding the first, covid-hit quarter of 2020). Growth slipped from 4.8% in the first quarter.

Bottom line: While China’s economy was hit particularly hard by lockdowns in the quarter, the figures raise the prospect that global growth is weakening even more quickly than feared. It means that the country probably won’t be able to hit its goal of 5.5% growth for the full year. Goldman Sachs was quick to cut its own forecast to 3.3% from 4%. Separately, China’s banks have detailed 2.11 billion yuan ($312 million) of loans at risk to the increasing number of homebuyers refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes.

— Chinese industrial production, retail sales rebound. China’s industrial production expanded by 3.9% compared with year-ago in June, much faster than a 0.7% gain in May. This was the second straight month of growth in industrial output, as the economy emerged from Covid-19 strict restrictions, but expansion wasn’t as much as economists expected. China’s retail trade unexpectedly rose by 3.1% from year-ago in June, easily beating market estimates of a flat reading and a strong shift from a 6.7% drop in May. This marked the first increase in retail trade since February, as consumption recovered following a relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions.

— Is China stumbling into its own mortgage crisis? A rapidly spreading protest — borrowers refusing to make payments on unfinished homes — threatens to rattle the financial system. Link for details via Bloomberg.

— Chinese pork production surges. China’s second-quarter pork production climbed to 13.8 MMT, the highest level for the period since at least 2015. China’s first-half pork production jumped 8.2% from year-ago to 29.4 MMT amid an 8.4% increase in slaughter. The country aggressively rebuilt its hog herd following the African swine fever outbreak, but producers starting culling sows later last year amid poor margins. China’s overall hog herd as of June 30 contracted by 1.9% compared to year-ago to 430.67 million head.

— China to limit phosphate exports via quotas. China is rolling out a quota system to limit exports of phosphates in the second half of this year, Reuters reported. China appears to have issued export quotas for just over 3 MMT of phosphates for the second half of this year, said Gavin Ju, China fertilizer analyst at CRU Group, citing information from about a dozen producers who have been informed by local governments since late June. That would mark a 45% drop from China’s shipments of 5.5 MMT in the same period a year ago. Although China has imposed export duties on fertilizers in the past, the latest measures mark its first use of inspection certificates and export quotas, analysts said.

— U.S./Kenya launch non-FTA talks. The two countries began negotiations under the U.S./Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) but the effort will not cover areas like market access or tariffs as would be the case under a free trade agreement (FTA). A joint statement on the STIP indicated it would cover 10 areas, including agriculture, digital trade, climate change, workers’ rights, trade facilitation and customs procedures. On agriculture, the STIP will focus on trade and transparency issues and science- and risk-based sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, according to a fact sheet. Sustainable practices and promoting innovative agricultural technologies to bolster farm productivity and climate change are other components noted under agriculture. Unlike an FTA, the STIP will not need any congressional approval.

— California Air Resources Board (CARB) is mulling some changes that could impact the soy sector. Traders and analysts earlier this week were discussing whether CARB was thinking of cutting back on the use of food oils (soy, canola) for use in generating Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits.

The following are comments on the topic from a soy complex analyst:

“The impact will depend on what CARB does. It sounds like they might be considering a limit on biofuel produced from crops like Europe. That would limit the amount of soybean oil-based biomass-based diesel in the California market. Still, since the RFS governs total biofuel production and there is a limit on fat and grease supplies, it would shift the volume of SME (soybean oil methyl ester) shipped to California, so I think the impact on soybean oil demand would be relatively minor. They are also considering a change in their carbon intensity targets. From the attached presentation (link), that seems like a longer-term (post-2030) change. Still, if they do not adopt the volume cap, they may revise the CI (Carbon Intensity) score for soybean oil, which would have a more limited impact on soybean oil demand and might even raise demand, given that it would likely raise LCFS credit prices. It also looks like they are considering revising the land use portion of CI scoring, which would likely increase the CI score for soybean oil. Again, I think it would have a relatively minor change in demand for soybean oil and might raise it if LCFS credit prices rise enough to offset the difference in the CI score. There is some minuscule probability they will increase the CI score of soybean oil sufficiently to make it unprofitable to ship SME to California. I do not think they will do that because it would make it difficult to reach their targets. However, even in that case, it would only redirect SME shipments from the California market to other markets.”

— States promise legal action if SEC climate rule moves forward. Republican attorneys general told the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) they are “ready to act” just like they did in the West Virginia v. EPA case if the commission moves forward with its climate-related disclosure rule as proposed. The 24 AGs, led by Patrick Morrisey of West Virginia and Mark Brnovich of Arizona, submitted supplemental comments to the commission saying the Supreme Court’s decision in the EPA case changes things. “The Court confirmed that Congress — not a federal administrative agency — has the power to decide major issues of the day,” they commented, slamming SEC’s proposed rule as “paternalistic.” “If this sort of regulatory overreach does not constitute a sweeping policy judgment on a major question, then we struggle to see what would,” they also said. Republicans have said the simple introduction of the proposed rule, which would require corporations to disclose their emissions footprints, is already sending negative signals to the market at a time when more investment in oil and gas are needed to grow production and reduce prices.

Democrats and environmental groups, however, have their sights set on fossil energy companies and want SEC to be even more aggressive than it proposed to be, especially on Scope 3 emissions disclosures. House Oversight Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Environment Subcommittee Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who have accused energy companies of misleading the public and lying about the role fossil fuels play in climate change, said the wiggle room SEC afforded on Scope 3 emissions in its proposed rule could let emissions go unreported. “This is a particular problem in the fossil fuel industry, where Scope 3 emissions make up the vast majority of the industry’s overall emissions, yet some companies exclude these emissions from their climate pledges,” the two Democrats wrote in comments to the SEC.

— Charging ahead on EV chargers. Projects are underway to build more chargers across the fruited plain. The Biden administration will hand out $7.5 billion for electric charging infrastructure to states, while GM and Pilot announced a partnership yesterday that would increase the number of fast chargers available in the U.S. by 20%.

— Wheat for ethanol. The largest biofuel producer in Brazil said it would build the first large-scale facility to use wheat, rather than sugarcane or corn, as the feedstock in making ethanol. Link for more info.

— Long lines are back at U.S. food banks as inflation hits high. The food banks, which had started to see some relief as people returned to work after pandemic shutdowns, are struggling to meet the latest need even as federal programs provide less food to distribute, grocery store donations wane and cash gifts don’t go nearly as far, the Associated Press reports (link). The surge in food prices comes after state governments ended Covid-19 disaster declarations that temporarily allowed increased benefits under SNAP, the federal food stamp program covering some 40 million Americans. Katie Fitzgerald, president and chief operating officer for the national food bank network Feeding America, is calling on USDA and Congress to find a way to restore hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of commodities recently lost with the end of several temporary programs to provide food to people in need. USDA commodities, which generally can represent as much as 30% of the food the banks disperse, accounted for more than 40% of all food distributed in fiscal year 2021 by the Feeding America network. “There is a critical need for the public sector to purchase more food now,” said Fitzgerald.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 560,411,642 with 6,365,679 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 89,294,382 with 1,023,258 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 599,289,113 doses administered, 222,682,315 have been fully vaccinated, or 67.1% of the U.S. population.

— Trump says he’s made up his mind about 2024, but unsure about timing of announcement. In an interview with the New York Magazine published on July 14, the 45th president disclosed that he has already made up his mind on that issue, but the “big decision” is the timing of the announcement. “Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision,” he told the outlet. “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,” Trump said, indicating that he is undecided on whether to announce before or after the 2022 midterm elections. He said there were “certain assets” in announcing the decision before the midterms.

— Aid for small beef producers. House Ag Committee chair David Scott (D-Ga.) said he would file a bill to improve insurance policies and encourage more direct-to-consumer sales for small family farmers and ranchers who produce cattle. Link for details.

— Cotton AWP falls again. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton fell to 109.10 cents per pound, effective today (July 15), down from 113.37 cents per pound and the lowest since it was 105.58 cents per pound the week of Jan. 14. Meanwhile, USDA said that Special Import Quota #13 will be established July 21 for 55.798 bales of upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased no later than Oct. 18 and imported into the U.S. no later than Jan. 16.

— Italy’s president rejected an offer by Mario Draghi to resign as prime minister after losing the support of one of his coalition allies, the Five Star Movement. A former head of the European Central Bank, Draghi has held the office since February 2021, helping to stabilize Italian politics. The president’s decision means he will have to try again to win the backing of his coalition or form a new one.