Secret Service on Trump: ‘The Former President is Safe’ after Assault; Shooter Dead

Trump assaulted at Pa. rally; blood coming from ear; conscious when he left site

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July 13, 2024 06:53 PM

The Week Ahead, July 13, 2024

WASHINGTON FOCUS

The House and Senate are both out and on recess this week due to the Republican National Convention July 15-19. But the key focus for the week occurred Saturday afternoon when an attack was made on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. President Joe Biden appeared on camera Saturday night to condemn the shooting. “I plan on talking to him shortly, I hope, when I get back to the telephone,” Biden said of Trump, his Republican opponent. “Look, there’s no place in America for this kind of violence. It’s sick. It’s sick.” “I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead,” Trump added.

Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi tweeted Trump is safe following the incident and that an investigation is underway. The White House initially called the matter “an incident.”

The Associated Press reported that the shooter is dead and that a rally attendee was killed.

Former President Donald Trump was escorted off stage by Secret Service that left him bleeding from near his right ear, though Trump’s campaign has said he is fine following the incident. He immediately was being checked out at a local medical facility.

— President Joe Biden has lost a few points in most polls since the halting June 27 debate. The FiveThirtyEight average of polls shows a 2.5-point shift against Biden, while the New York Times poll tracker shows a 3-point shift. Both sources indicate Trump is ahead in the national popular vote by a couple of points.

High-quality public polls of swing states reflect a similar shift against Biden.

Of note: The majority of voters have firmly established positions, and shifting even a small number of them requires a significant event.

Election analysts stress that Biden was already trailing in most swing states before the debate and needs the race to shift in his favor. However, the current trend is moving against him.

— Speakers at the GOP national convention. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and all three apparent finalists for vice president are set to speak at the July 14-19 Republican National Convention in Wisconsin, according to an announcement by the Trump campaign on Saturday. Link for announcement.

The campaign revealed a list of family members, lawmakers, celebrities, and special guests who will address the convention next week in Milwaukee. Notably absent from the list is former first lady Melania Trump, who is expected to attend but will not deliver remarks.

Among the notable speakers before Trump formally accepts the GOP nomination on Thursday night are North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. These individuals are considered the most likely picks for vice president. More than 50 elected officials, including several senators, governors, and former Trump administration officials, are also listed as headliners for the convention. This includes DeSantis, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, among others.

Additionally, GOP Senate candidates such as Kari Lake (Arizona), Jim Banks (Indiana), Mike Rogers (Michigan), and several others will also give remarks. Former White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is set to speak shortly after being released from prison, where he served a sentence for refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena related to the January 6th Capitol attack.

The convention will also feature speeches from media figures and celebrities, including Tucker Carlson, who was ousted from Fox News in April 2023. Other notable speakers include “God Bless the USA” singer Lee Greenwood, UFC CEO Dana White, rapper Amber Rose, reality star Savannah Chrisley, podcast host David Sacks, and Trump campaign adviser Alina Habba.

Other politicians on the slate include former GOP presidential candidates Ben Carson and Vivek Ramaswamy, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, and Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.

Trump family members speaking at the convention include Donald Trump Jr., his girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle, Eric Trump, and his wife Lara Trump, who is the co-chair of the Republican National Committee. Neither former first lady Melania Trump nor Ivanka Trump will speak at this convention, although they have spoken at previous ones.

In a weekend update, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s U.N. ambassador who was his only real opponent for the GOP nomination, was invited to the GOP convention and has accepted.

Construction mogul Diane Hendricks, by far the U.S.’ richest self-made woman according to Forbes’ list will also speak.

Other speakers include Americans chosen to highlight aspects of Trump’s agenda. These include Michael Morin, whose sister was killed by an illegal immigrant, Trump business employees Carrie Ruiz and John Nieporte, members of a University of North Carolina fraternity, Jim Chilton (an Arizona rancher,) the mother of a fentanyl poisoning victim, multiple veterans, a petroleum engineer, and a pastor.

Of note: Jim Chilton is a fifth-generation rancher from Arivaca, Arizona. His family has been in the cattle business for nearly 140 years. Chilton’s ranch extends to the U.S./Mexico border and is located in a top corridor for drug smuggling and human trafficking. Chilton appears to have been selected to speak at the convention to address immigration and border security themes from the perspective of a rancher whose property is directly affected by these issues. He has testified before Congress multiple times about the challenges faced by ranchers in border areas. His inclusion aligns with the Republican Party’s focus on border security and immigration policy for the upcoming election. In 2003, Chilton was named “Rancher of the Year” by the Arizona Cattle Growers’ Association. He has also received other awards, including: The “True Grit” award from the Arizona Cattle Growers. The “Individual of the Year” award from an unspecified organization. The Arizona Farm Bureau “Oscar” for outstanding achievement. The Farm Bureau “Environmental Stewardship” award. His wife, Sue Chilton, purchased the ranch near Arivaca with her husband in 1987, and they later expanded their operation by buying the neighboring Flying X ranch in 1991. Together with Jim, Sue implemented grazing management programs and conducted detailed environmental monitoring on their ranch. They have been recognized as cooperators with the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1980. Sue was appointed by Arizona Governor Jane Hull to serve a five-year term on the Arizona Game and Fish Commission. In this role, she worked to improve relations between the Game and Fish Department and rural residents who provide wildlife habitat.

Trump is expected to take the stage Thursday after securing his third consecutive nomination. The order of speakers is not yet clear, but Carlson is expected to speak shortly before Trump takes the stage Thursday, according to the New York Times, while Trump Jr. is expected to announce his father’s running mate, according to multiple outlets. C-SPAN’s website and cable channel will carry the entirety of the RNC, while outlets like CNN and Fox News will air portions of the convention across their YouTube and television networks.

The Democratic National Convention will take place in Chicago beginning Aug. 19 amid turbulence in the party due to discord over incumbent Joe Biden seeking reelection after his debate performance against Trump June 27 stirred questions about his capacity to run for re-election.

— More Colorado workers have presumptive positive cases of bird flu. Colorado authorities announced three workers in a commercial egg operation have presumptive positive cases of bird flu, bringing the state’s count of known human infections up to as high as five - and the national number to seven — though authorities said none of the workers have been hospitalized, and showed “common respiratory infection symptoms” and pink eye.

It’s the first time multiple cases have been recorded at the same location.

THER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, July 15

• President Joe Biden will be in Texas to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act during a visit to the LBJ Presidential Library and then travels to Las Vegas, Nevada, to deliver remarks at the 115th NAACP National Convention on advancing racial justice and equity for all Americans.

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in a conversation with David M Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, DC. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.

• Republican National Convention. The Republican National Convention takes place this week in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, culminating the nomination of former President Donald Trump as the Republican that will take on President Joe Biden in November; runs through Thursday. Several groups and media outlets have events scheduled during the convention’s run.

• Cost of living. Axios discussion on “The Cost of Living Crisis for American Families,” an event on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention

• U.S./China trade. Center for American Progress virtual discussion on “A Progressive Prescription for U.S./China Trade,” part of the China Policy event series.

• Economic data. National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 21st Annual Economic Measurement Seminar; runs through Tuesday.

• Conservative issues. Heritage Foundation hosts “Heritage Policy Fest: Fighting for America’s Future” with remarks from elected officials, prominent media figures, and other conservative leaders.

• Manufacturing technology. Brookings Institution 13th annual John Hazen White Forum on Public Policy, with the theme of “How Advanced Technologies are Reshaping Manufacturing,” focusing on “the geopolitical aspects of manufacturing and ways to integrate technology into operations and management.”

• U.S. election history. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion on “Ballot Battles: The History of Disputed Elections in the United States.”

• Presidential immunity. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies “Courthouse Steps” discussion on “Trump v. United States,” focusing on the issue of presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken while in office.

Tuesday, July 16

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivers remarks on Challenges Facing Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.

• Spanish olives. International Trade Commission meeting for a commission vote on Inv. Nos. 701-TA-582 and 731-TA-1377, Ripe Olives from Spain.

• Economic data. Final day of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 21st Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.

• NATO summit. Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion on “Connecting the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific: Reflections on the NATO Summit.”

• Aid index. The Brookings Institution discussion on “Aid Data, Impact, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)” and launch of the 2024 Aid Transparency Index.

• Gaza situation. American Jewish Committee holds a discussion on “Israel and the Path to Peace.”

• Drones. D-Fend Solutions virtual discussion on “Small Drones — Big Impact: Protecting Our Airspace Before the Big One Hits,” focusing on threats posed by commercially available drones.

• Federal workforce. Government Executive Media Group virtual summit on “The Future of the Federal Workforce.”

• Trade with Colombia. Wilson Center discussion on “Enterprise diplomacy: Colombia FTA Case Study, focusing on “leveraging innovation, private enterprise, and economic collaboration to advance American leadership and achieve diplomatic objectives,” especially as regards trade.

• Environmental technology trade. International Trade Administration meeting of the Environmental Technologies Trade Advisory Committee for committee members to present the recommendation topics the ETTAC has submitted this charter and hear an update from key agencies on U.S. gov’t activities.

• Chevron decision. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and the Brookings Institution discussion on “Life After Chevron: How Will Congress and Federal Agencies Adapt?”

• Cyber competition with China. Hudson Institute holds a discussion on “Leading in the Cyber Competition with China.”

• Transatlantic relations. European Union discussion on “Transatlantic Approaches to China: Meeting the Major Challenge of the 21st Century.”

Wednesday, July 17

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers remarks on the Economic Outlook.

• GOP farm committee. GOP Farm Committee, and the Farmers and Ranchers for Trump Coalition, host the 2024 Great American Farm Fair on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention.

• Kennedy meets with farmers. Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. discussion with local farmers to “discuss issues impacting the food system in Wisconsin and beyond.”

• Apparel trade. United States Fashion Industry Association Washington Trade Symposium. Katherine White, chief textiles and apparel negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, delivers remarks on “The Biden Administration’s Perspectives on Textile Trade Policy”

• Animal drug approvals. Food and Drug Administration Animal Drug User Fee Educational Conference, including an overview of the approval process.

• Sanctions on Russia. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy.”

• Energy outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “bp Energy Outlook 2024.”

• Taiwan issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Importance of National Resilience: Implications for Taiwan,” focusing on “the ability to withstand external coercion, natural disasters, and other threats to the normal functioning of its government, society and economy.”

Thursday, July 18

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers remarks on Accountability and Reform. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.

• Republican National Convention. Final day of the2024 Republican National Convention, with remarks from Former President Donald Trump.

• China-Taiwan issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “How Does the Taiwan Public View the U.S. and China?” focusing on the results of an Academia Sinica public opinion survey.

• Energy transition. United States Energy Association discussion on “A Model for Enhancing Grid Reliability and River Restoration during the Energy Transition.”

• USAID policy launch. Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program launch of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) “Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance Policy.”

• AI in the workplace. Government Executive Media Group and Turbo Federal virtual discussion on “Adding AI to the Workplace.”

Friday, July 19

• Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

• U.S./China relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on U.S./China relations.

• Incoming Mexican administration. The Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and the Association of Women in International Trade (WIIT), “History Maker” discussion on “What Mexico’s New President Means for U.S. Economic and Trade Relations.”

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

The economic week ahead globally:

U.S.

• Investors are watching U.S. economic data closely, speculating on potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as early Sept. 17-18.

• Key data : retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims for June.

• Recent weak inflation data and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell increase the likelihood of rate cuts.

• Housing market data and Treasury auctions are also in focus.

Canada

• Canadian inflation data will be pivotal for the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on July 24.

• Weak labor-market data suggests a potential rate cut if core inflation rebounds in June.

Eurozone

• The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, following a recent rate cut.

• Economic data, including German retail sales and eurozone industrial production, will influence future rate decisions.

• UK economic data, including consumer price inflation and job market figures, will determine the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions.

• Recent strong GDP data complicates the outlook for rate cuts.

China

• China is holding an economic-reform-themed summit and releasing key data, including second-quarter growth figures.

• Economic growth is expected to have slowed, but analysts believe China will meet its annual growth target of around 5%.

Japan

• Japan will release trade figures and inflation data, influencing the Bank of Japan’s policy stance.

• Yen volatility and potential intervention are also in focus.

Monday, July 15

• Empire State Manufacturing
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is interviewed by David Rubinstein at the Economic Club of Washington.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks in a moderated conversation about the economy at the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference.
• Bank of Canada business outlook survey.

Tuesday, July 16

• Retail Sales
• Import & Export Prices
• Business Inventories
• Housing Market Index
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at NABE seminar in Washington.

Wednesday, July 17

• MBA Mortgage Applications
• Housing Starts
• Industrial Production
• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
• Beige Book
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin makes informal remarks on U.S. economy in Landover, Maryland.

Thursday, July 18

• Jobless Claims
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
• Leading Indicators
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat at a conference hosted by Dallas and Atlanta Fed banks. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gives a keynote address.
• Eurozone ECB rate decision

Friday, July 19

• New York Fed President John Williams speaks on a panel in Cusco, Peru, at a conference hosted by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and the Inter-American Development Bank.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives closing remarks at the Dallas/Atlanta Fed conference.

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

With USDA’s monthly reports released last Friday, focus returns to U.S. and global crop prospects… and the weather.

Monday, July 15

Ag reports and events:

• Export Inspections
• Season-Average Price Forecasts
• Feed Grains Database
• Wheat Data
• Dairy Monthly Tables
• Crop Progress
• Malaysia’s July 1-15 palm oil exports