Schumer Caves and Senate Expected to Clear CR Through September

China trade uncertainty worries U.S. meat industry | Updates on ag economic and disaster aid

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March 14, 2025 08:44 AM

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 14, 2025

— Schumer backs down on blocking GOP CR bill, averting shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) dropped his threat to block a Republican stopgap spending bill through Sept. 30, allowing the government to avoid a shutdown. “While the CR bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse,” Schumer said. “I will vote to keep the government open, and not shut it down.” Despite Democratic demands for restraints on Elon Musk’s cost-cutting measures, Schumer acknowledged that a shutdown would be a worse outcome. While progressives pushed for a showdown to counter President Donald Trump and Musk’s efforts to shrink federal agencies, moderates feared backlash from a government shutdown.

Details: The stopgap bill would maintain government operations without increasing the spending of taxpayer dollars. There are no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security in the bill. The bill would increase defense spending by $6 billion from FY 2024 and decrease nondefense spending by $13 billion. It also includes an additional $485 million for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a $20 billion cut to Internal Revenue Service enforcement.

Democrats, spanning various ideological factions, are expressing strong frustration with Schumer for backing down from his earlier stance to block a Republican bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has called the move a “huge slap in the face” and noted a widespread sense of betrayal within the party.

— Sen. Daines seeks envoy role for Trump/Xi meeting. Senator Steve Daines (R-Mont.) leveraging his extensive experience in China, is seeking appointment as a special envoy to facilitate a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Financial Times reports. Daines plans to attend the China Development Forum (CDF) in Beijing next week, believing the envoy title would bolster his chances of securing a meeting with Xi. While he has discussed the idea with individuals in Trump’s circle, it remains unclear whether he has spoken directly with the former president. The White House has not commented.

Daines previously spent six years in China with Procter & Gamble, helping expand its Asian operations, and has continued engaging with China in his political career, advocating for Montana’s beef exports. His participation in the CDF, an event usually absent of U.S. politicians, highlights his commitment to U.S./China dialogue.

His proposal has gained backing from some U.S. companies seeking to ease tensions with China, though there is no clear progress toward a Trump/Xi summit.

— Putin signals cease-fire interest, but with strings attached. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed tentative support for a cease-fire in Ukraine but emphasized that he was in no rush. Speaking in Moscow, he outlined conditions for a potential 30-day truce, including restrictions on Kyiv’s arms shipments and control over enforcement mechanisms. He also insisted that Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region must surrender rather than withdraw. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine might have to cede land as part of an eventual peace deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Putin’s terms as unrealistic, arguing that they were designed to prolong the conflict. On the battlefield, Russia claimed to have retaken Sudzha, a key town in the Kursk region. The war’s broader impact was also felt in Middle East diplomacy, as U.S. attention shifted from Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks to negotiations with Russian officials.

— Trump’s Canada nominee affirms sovereignty amid annexation talk. Pete Hoekstra, Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to Canada, confirmed the country’s sovereignty during his confirmation hearing, downplaying Trump’s repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st state. Hoekstra acknowledged the president’s complex relationship with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau but emphasized the potential for a diplomatic reset under incoming leader Mark Carney. Trump’s recent remarks, both on social media and in the Oval Office, suggested he still views annexation as a viable idea.

— President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to his tariff policies, stating, “I’m not going to bend at all,” in response to ongoing trade tensions with various countries, including the European Union and Canada.

— Canada challenges U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs at WTO. Canada has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over U.S. steel and aluminum duties, arguing that the removal of exemptions and increased tariffs violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994. The request for dispute consultations was circulated to WTO members on March 13, according to a WTO statement on X.

Meanwhile, several Canadian provinces yanked U.S. alcohol off store shelves after Trump threatened tariffs on Canadian imports. Shares of Brown-Forman, the maker of Jack Daniel’s whiskey and Finlandia vodka, have dropped 8% since Monday. CEO Lawson Whiting said consumers are trading down to smaller bottles.

— No big deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded to President Trump’s new threats to impose 200% tariffs on Champagne and other alcohol from the European Union. He told CNBC: “One or two items with one trading bloc, I’m not sure why that’s a big deal for the markets,” he said.

— Trump’s national emergency and tariffs: Connected but separate. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the U.S./Canada/Mexico border was primarily driven by concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. While he also imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, these were not a direct result of the emergency declaration but rather part of a broader strategy to pressure these countries on border security and trade. Though distinct actions, both the emergency declaration and tariffs reflect Trump’s broader policy approach to immigration enforcement and economic leverage.

— House Ag Dems slam “Trump tariff chaos.’ House Ag Committee Democrats, led by Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-Minn.), sent a letter (link) to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick criticizing what they describe as the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policies. They argue the unpredictable approach harms farmers by creating uncertainty in input costs and trade relations, particularly with North American partners. The lawmakers urged the administration to abandon its volatile tariff strategy in favor of structured trade negotiations.

— Way too soon to talk about tariff-related economic aid to the U.S. ag sector. Sources note that several Trump administration reports on tariffs and their impacts will come in early April. Those reports will include possible aid to some sectors, including agriculture. Also under discussion is what funding mechanism to use for any U.S. ag aid. Remaining funds in USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) stand at around $4 billion, but that is expected to be refilled to its $30 billion cap later this year. Other programs could be used to authorize ag aid.

— China trade uncertainty worries U.S. meat industry. Scores of U.S. meat, poultry, and dairy facilities are facing potential export disruptions as their registrations with China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) are set to lapse on March 16, with more expirations in April. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) warned that most affected registrations remain unrenewed, despite USDA and FDA requests. While China has continued clearing shipments from lapsed facilities, concerns persist over Beijing’s slow renewal process. A U.S. ag attaché reported that China’s non-implementation of key trade agreements is constraining U.S. beef and pork access. If unresolved, USMEF estimates losses of up to $4.125 billion in beef exports and $1.3 billion in pork.

— API CEO calls for calm on tariffs, pushes permitting reform. During a CERAWeek panel, American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers urged energy leaders to remain calm amid President Trump’s tariff actions, viewing them as a negotiation tool for policy changes. He also stressed the need for energy permitting reform but expressed skepticism about congressional progress.

Of note: API and major U.S. oil producers will meet with Trump next week to discuss tariffs, trade, and LNG exports.

— Trump to meet Hochul on energy pipeline, NYC toll dispute. President Donald Trump will host New York Governor Kathy Hochul at the White House today to discuss the Constitution natural gas pipeline and other issues. Trump aims to revive the project, which New York blocked in 2020, claiming it could save families up to $5,000 on energy costs. However, Williams Cos. CEO Alan Armstrong has stated he won’t proceed without state approval. The meeting may also touch on Trump’s efforts to cancel New York City’s congestion pricing plan, which Hochul has vowed to challenge in court.

PERSONNEL

— Senate panel approves Trump’s picks for FDA and NIH. The Senate health committee endorsed Marty Makary as FDA commissioner and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH director on Thursday. Makary secured bipartisan backing in a 14-9 vote, while Bhattacharya advanced along party lines, 12-11. Both nominees now head to a full Senate vote, where the GOP majority is expected to confirm them.

Their leadership comes amid turmoil at the agencies, with mass firings and restructuring efforts under the Trump administration. Makary and Bhattacharya align with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, advocating for regulatory reforms, deeper scrutiny of public health policies, and a cautious approach to vaccine policy.

Separately on Thursday, President Trump pulled the nomination of Dave Weldon to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hours before the health committee was set to question him during a hearing.

— Senate recess delays USDA confirmations. Senators are preparing for recess without confirming any of the Trump administration’s USDA leadership picks since USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was approved in February. Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) cited FBI background check delays as the primary holdup. The lack of confirmed officials has complicated policy development and left industry stakeholders struggling to navigate key regulatory and trade decisions. Lobbyists stress the urgency of filling roles like the Undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs, especially amid recent funding shifts and bird flu concerns.

— Judges order Trump administration to reinstate fired workers, including USDA. A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration must rehire thousands of probationary federal workers who were unlawfully terminated as part of a mass government downsizing effort. Judge William H. Alsup found that the Office of Personnel Management overstepped its authority in directing agencies to carry out the firings, calling the justification a “sham.” The ruling applies to six federal departments, including USDA, though the judge left open the possibility of expanding it further. Meanwhile, U.S. District Judge James Bredar in Baltimore found that the administration did not follow laws in their firings, including the requirement of providing 60 days’ advance notice. Bredar ordered the workforce be returned to the status quo before the layoffs began. The administration is expected to contest the decisions.

Reports indicate that the return to work at USDA for probationary workers has been inconsistent even after USDA pledged it would rehire the fired workers for up to 45 days. Some 24,000 workers have been fired by the administration.

— Alan K. Simpson, outspoken yet pragmatic U.S. senator, dies at 93. Alan K. Simpson, a three-term Republican senator from Wyoming known for his sharp wit and bipartisan approach, has died at 93. Simpson, who played a key role in the 1986 immigration overhaul and co-led a deficit-reduction commission in 2010, passed away in Cody, Wyoming, following complications from a hip injury. Towering at 6'7", Simpson was renowned for his quotability and willingness to challenge party orthodoxy, supporting amnesty for undocumented immigrants and abortion rights while advocating fiscal responsibility. His legislative career, spanning from 1979 to 1997, was marked by both fierce debates and pragmatic deal-making. In 2022, President Joe Biden honored Simpson with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, recognizing him as a principled statesman who valued cross-party collaboration. Even in retirement, Simpson lamented the growing partisanship in Washington, calling modern political battles “savagery.”’

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened up around 240 points on high odds the Senate will pass a stopgap spending measure through September. In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +2.1%. China +1.8%. India closed. In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.7%.

Equities yesterday: All three major indices registered losses as concerns over tariffs continued to rattle markets and sent the S&P 500 into correction territory — It was the fastest peak-to-correction shift since the six trading days when the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The 10.1% fall since Feb. 19 is the seventh-fastest collapse into a correction since 1929, Bloomberg notes. In the past, the index has declined an average of 1.7% in the first month the S&P 500 enters correction territory, but generally rebounds over longer time frames, gaining an average of 2.1% over the following three months and nearly 5% over six months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow fell 537.36 points, 1.30%, at 40,813.57. The Nasdaq fell 345.44 points, 1.96%, at 17,303.01. The S&P 500 fell 77.78 points, 1.39%, at 5,521.52.

Of note: All three indexes have shed more than 4% this week, with the Dow on pace for its worst week since June 2022.

Gold, a safe haven, rose above $3,000 an ounce, a record.

— Tesla plans cheaper Model Y, self-driving upgrade to put brakes on China sales slide. The U.S. company’s share of the world’s largest EV market has dropped to 4.3% from more than 16% in 2022.

— Tariffs and the economy: A high-stakes gamble. The U.S. economy faces a critical test as new tariffs raise costs while potential benefits remain uncertain. President Trump is betting that short-term pain will lead to long-term gains, but businesses and investors are wary. Tariffs have already driven up import prices, disrupted supply chains, and triggered market sell-offs. While some companies are moving production to the U.S., a full-scale manufacturing revival requires sustained, painful tariffs, and takes time to unfold.

The immediate effects — higher consumer prices and rising costs for manufacturers — threaten economic growth, increasing the risk of recession. Consumer sentiment is already slipping, and if businesses slow investments and hiring, the downturn could deepen.

Of note: The cumulative effect of tariffs is becoming significant. Economists at Nomura estimate the effective tariff rate for total U.S. imports now stands at 10.1%, up from 2.4% in 2024, and they forecast a further rise to 14%.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve faces a tough choice: combat slowing GDP or rising inflation. If trade uncertainty lingers, the economy may struggle to stay afloat. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank may overlook a temporary inflation spike caused by tariffs. However, the concern is that higher costs could influence consumer expectations, leading to prolonged inflationary pressure. Despite inflation data suggesting an uptick in the Fed’s preferred metric — the core PCE index — to around 2.7%-2.8% in February, traders are still pricing in a 60% chance of three or more rate cuts this year. (The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the first half of the year, before delivering two reductions beginning in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.) This reflects a disconnect between market expectations and inflation trends. Powell’s remarks, or lack thereof, will be heavily scrutinized, with investors paying close attention to Fed officials’ economic projections. If policymakers signal growing concerns over tariff-driven inflation, it could push them toward a more hawkish stance, dampening market optimism.

— Mnuchin downplays recession fears, cites market adjustment. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns about a U.S. recession, attributing the recent stock selloff to an expected market correction rather than economic instability. Speaking to Bloomberg, Mnuchin suggested a 5-10% market dip was a natural response to high valuations and President Trump’s aggressive trade tactics, including proposed 200% tariffs on European alcohol. While acknowledging potential economic slowdowns due to reduced government spending, Mnuchin emphasized that the nation’s primary issue is its growing fiscal deficit. He urged Republicans to ensure any extensions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts include measures to offset borrowing impacts.

— Bessent calls dollar drop a ‘natural adjustment.’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the recent decline in the U.S. dollar, calling it a natural correction after initial market enthusiasm following President Trump’s re-election. Speaking with CNBC, Bessent attributed the dollar’s earlier surge to expectations of deregulation and tax cuts but said investors are now in a “wait-and-see” mode. The dollar has weakened since Trump took office, with concerns over tariff hikes and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts weighing on demand. Bessent emphasized that the administration is working on a new tax-cut package and deregulation to boost economic certainty, warning that a government shutdown would be “incredibly disruptive.” As noted previously, he dismissed fears of an imminent recession, saying the economy is shifting toward greater private-sector reliance.

— The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a widely used metric developed by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis to quantify economic uncertainty related to policy decisions. It combines three main components:

Newspaper coverage: This involves tracking the volume of articles from major U.S. newspapers (such as the New York Times and Wall Street Journal) that discuss economic policy uncertainty.
Federal tax code expirations: This component measures the number of federal tax provisions set to expire, as reported by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), indicating uncertainty about future tax policies.
Forecast disagreement: It assesses the dispersion in predictions among economic forecasters regarding key variables like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and government expenditures, reflecting uncertainty about future policy impacts.

Current trends. As of March 12, 2025, the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index stood at 369.42, which is significantly lower than its record high of 1026.38 in January 2024 but still reflects heightened uncertainty compared to historical averages. This elevated level of uncertainty is attributed to factors such as policy changes, trade tariff fluctuations, and concerns about government shutdowns.

The index has historically spiked during periods of significant policy changes or crises, such as the Great Recession and the Covid-19 pandemic. High levels of policy uncertainty can lead to reduced economic activity as businesses and consumers delay major decisions due to increased risk perceptions.

Impact on markets and economy. Economic policy uncertainty can significantly impact financial markets and economic growth. It often leads to increased volatility in equity markets, as seen in the Russell 1000 index, particularly during election cycles. While higher uncertainty does not necessarily lead to sustained market volatility, it can cause short-term spikes.

Implications: The elevated index value indicates increased economic risks, as businesses and consumers may delay decisions due to policy ambiguity. This rise coincides with other worrying economic indicators, such as declining consumer sentiment and increased market volatility.

AG MARKETS

— Ag markets today:

Grains weaker overnight as trade uncertainties hang over markets. Corn, soybeans and wheat mildly favored the downside during overnight trade. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 to 6 cents lower, soybeans were steady to a penny lower and wheat futures were 1 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was down more than 200 points and front-month crude oil futures were around 65 cents higher. Gold jumped to a record high above $3,000.00 overnight.
Still waiting on active cash cattle trade. Cash cattle negotiations remained at a standstill on Thursday, with feedlots seeking higher prices and packers not willing to bid up for supplies given poor margins. If the gridlock continues, this week’s negotiated cash cattle volume will be light.
Pork cutout firms. The pork cutout rose $2.71 to $97.29 on Thursday, fueled by a $10.84 increase in volatile belly prices. While wholesale prices firmed, movement slowed to 214.6 loads.

— Ag trade: South Korea purchased 139,000 MT of corn — 70,0000 MT expected to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 69,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa.

— USDA daily export sales:

218,604 MT corn received in the reporting period for unknown destinations
20,000 MT soybean oil for unknown destinations for 2024-25

— Brazil’s soybean and corn crop forecasts updated.

Soybean crop updates:

Conab raised its estimate to 167.37 MMT (+1.36 MMT) due to strong yields in key states, though drought has affected some regions.
USDA kept its forecast at 169 MMT.

Corn crop updates:

Conab raised its forecast to 122.76 MMT (+750,000 MT), despite a 540,000-MT reduction in safrinha production.
USDA maintained its projection at 126 MMT.

Exports:

Soybeans: Conab projects 105.74 MMT (+300,000 MT), USDA holds at 105.5 MMT.
Corn: Conab maintained at 34 MMT, while USDA lowered its estimate by 2 MMT to 44 MMT. Note: part of the difference on Brazil exports is that Conab is Feb-Jan. while USDA is Sept.-Aug.

— China faces rapeseed meal shortage after 100% tariff on Canada. China is set to experience a rapeseed meal shortage by Q3 2025 following its surprise decision to impose a 100% tariff on imports from top supplier Canada, Reuters reports (link). Futures for the commodity have already surged over 8% in response. While China is exploring alternative suppliers like India and Russia, limited global availability makes full replacement unlikely. The shortage could push feed producers to rely more on domestic rapeseed meal or switch to soybean meal.

— Brazil officially eliminates import tax on certain food items. Brazil’s trade chamber has unanimously voted to eliminate import taxes on certain products to curb food inflation, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said. The tax elimination is an emergency measure that goes into effect today for an undetermined amount of time for corn, boneless beef products, roasted coffee, coffee beans, olive oil, sugar, cookies, pasta and sardines.

— Argentine soy crush workers lift strike. Argentina’s oilseed workers lifted a strike Thursday afternoon that had paralyzed soy processing plants for a day, their union said, after the government called to restart talks with biodiesel firm Explora. A meeting between union officials and Explora is scheduled for next Monday afternoon. SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera complied with the decision in calling off the previously planned strike, but they said Explora was out of compliance in laying off workers and allowing the government to repress a protest.

— Iowa extends agricultural weight-limit suspension. Iowa has extended its emergency proclamation through April 7, allowing overweight loads up to 90,000 pounds for transporting agricultural products such as corn, soybeans, hay, fertilizer, and manure. The exemption applies to all state highways except interstates. Drivers must still adhere to posted weight restrictions on roads and bridges.

— India’s export rice prices fall to 21-month low. India’s rice export prices continued to drop amid subdued demand and stiff competition from other exporting countries. India’s 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at $403.00 to $410.00 per metric ton, down $5.00 to $6.00 from last week and the lowest in 21 months.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: May corn rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.65 1/4, closing nearer the session high.
• Soy complex: May soybean futures climbed 10 1/4 cents to $10.10 3/4 but closed near mid-range. May meal futures rallied $6.9 to $307.1. May bean oil slid 40 points to 41.28 cents.
• Wheat: May SRW wheat rose 8 1/2 cents to $5.62 1/2, near mid-range and hit a two-week high. May HRW wheat gained 14 1/2 cents to $5.87 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high.
• Cotton: May cotton futures fell 45 points to 66.53 cents, marking a low range close.
• Cattle: April live cattle rose 65 cents to $202.05, near mid-range and hit a six-week high early on. May feeder cattle fell 35 cents to $281.525, near the session low after hitting a contract high early on.
• Hogs: The nearby April contract fell 87.5 cents to $85.625, while the deferred contracts fell more significantly.

FARM POLICY

— Cotton AWP rises, removing LDP. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton rose to 53.76 cents per pound, effective March 14, up from 51.88 cents per pound the prior week. The rise in the AWP removes what had been a 12 cent LDP available for the week ended March 13, the first LDP since October 2020.

— USDA economic assistance update. USDA is nearing its March 21 deadline to open applications for $10 billion in economic assistance approved by Congress in December. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said USDA is on track to meet this deadline, with applications expected to be available shortly. This assistance is part of a broader nearly $31 billion package, which includes disaster aid for farmers affected by natural disasters in 2023 and 2024.

Economic assistance program: The $10 billion economic aid will be distributed through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (E-CAP), with payments based on crops planted and market prices.
Application process: Pre-filled applications will be sent to producers where information is already on file, using 2024 acreage reporting data. Producers can review, sign, and return these applications to local FSA service centers.
Deadline and timing: Secretary Rollins aims to release payments before the March 21 deadline, with initial payments likely to be around 85% of the total, followed by a supplemental payment in the summer.
Farmers can expect to receive the economic assistance aid relatively quickly after submitting their applications, as the USDA aims to distribute the funds efficiently. The process is designed to be simple, transparent, and fast, with pre-filled applications being sent to producers where information is already on file, using 2024 acreage reporting data. Exact payment schedules may vary based on the efficiency of the application process and the speed at which the USDA can verify and process applications.
Legislative support: Senators like John Hoeven (R-N.D.) are supportive of the efforts, noting that an announcement is expected soon.

Additionally, there are ongoing legislative efforts, such as the Producer and Agricultural Credit Enhancement (PACE) Act, aimed at improving farmers’ access to credit by updating USDA loan limits.

— The distribution of $20.78 billion in disaster relief among farmers will be managed by USDA, focusing on covering necessary expenses related to losses of revenue, quality, or production due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024. Here’s how it will be distributed:

Eligible losses: The aid will cover losses from droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze (including polar vortex), smoke exposure, and excessive moisture.
Crop coverage: Eligible crops include milk, on-farm stored commodities, crops prevented from planting, and harvested adulterated wine grapes.
Livestock assistance: Up to $2 billion will be used to cover livestock losses due to drought, wildfires, and floods.
Payment structure: Producers with crop insurance or Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) coverage can receive payments covering up to 90% of their disaster-related revenue losses. Those without coverage are capped at 70% unless their uninsured losses are deemed insignificant.
Block grants: USDA may provide disaster assistance through block grants to eligible states and territories, including compensation for timber, citrus, pecan, and poultry losses.
Payment timing: Payments are likely to begin after the application process is initiated. USDA has not announced a specific start date for disaster aid applications, but is working on streamlining the process.

The process for distributing these funds is expected to be more farmer friendly than USDA’s last ag disaster relief program implementation.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices rebound amid uncertainty over Ukraine ceasefire. Oil prices rose on Friday, recovering from losses in the previous session, as uncertainty over a potential Ukraine ceasefire dampened hopes for a swift return of Russian energy to Western markets. Brent crude climbed 54 cents, 0.77%, to $70.42 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose 58 cents, 0.87%, $67.13. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed conditional support for a U.S.-proposed ceasefire but raised concerns that delay a resolution. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Russian financial institutions and reduced Chinese imports due to sanctions risks have further complicated global oil trade. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts supply to exceed demand by 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, but geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks to price stability.

— Oil prices dipped Thursday amid tariff wars and ceasefire uncertainty. Oil prices fell over 1% on Thursday as market sentiment weakened due to escalating trade tensions and uncertainty over a proposed U.S.-brokered Russia/Ukraine ceasefire. Brent settled at $69.88 per barrel, down $1.07, -1.5%, while WTI dropped $1.07, -1.7%, to $66.55. The IEA revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast downward by 70,000 bpd, citing economic concerns and trade conflicts, while projecting a global oil surplus of 600,000 bpd this year. OPEC+ saw a production rise in February, primarily from Kazakhstan, though it reaffirmed commitment to quotas. Investor anxiety deepened after President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol, offsetting the impact of tighter U.S. oil inventories. Russia’s cautious support for a U.S. ceasefire plan added to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Citi analysts maintained a $60 Brent forecast for second half 2025, aligning with Trump’s push for lower oil prices.

— EPA extends 2024 RFS compliance deadline. EPA has formally published its plan in the Federal Register to extend the compliance reporting deadline for the 2024 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The final rule takes effect on March 13, with an operational date of March 7. Originally proposed in December, the extension moves the deadline from March 31, 2025, to the next quarterly compliance reporting deadline after the revised 2024 cellulosic biofuel standard is finalized. The EPA clarified that this rule does not finalize a waiver for the 2024 cellulosic biofuel requirement, which will be addressed separately.

— U.S. weighs energy cooperation with Gazprom amid Ukraine pressure. The U.S. is exploring potential collaboration with Russian energy giant Gazprom, according to Russian and European officials. Such a move would signal closer ties with the Kremlin while Trump pushes Ukraine toward a peace deal. European assessments indicate contacts between U.S. and Russian representatives, though leadership in these discussions remains unclear. On Thursday, Putin suggested U.S./Russia energy cooperation could facilitate the restoration of gas supplies to Europe, leading to a 4.5% drop in European gas futures.

— U.S. expands sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and shadow fleet. The Trump administration has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, and several entities linked to Tehran’s “shadow fleet” of vessels used to bypass restrictions. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control added Paknejad to its sanctions list, citing his role in exporting billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil, including allocations to Iran’s armed forces. The move follows a Feb. 4 national security memorandum reinforcing a “maximum pressure” strategy. Ten oil and fuel tankers, three tugboats, and three companies involved in Iranian petroleum trade were also sanctioned. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled openness to direct talks with the U.S., but only if Washington ends its pressure campaign.

CONGRESS

— Senate faces deadline as agriculture research funding takes a hit. The continuing resolution (CR) measure likely to be passed by the Senate includes significant cuts to USDA’s research and inspection arms. One key provision eliminates funding for the Agricultural Research Service’s facilities account, raising concerns from both parties over maintenance backlogs at research centers. The bill does boost nutrition funding for women and infants by $567 million, but lawmakers warn that cuts to agriculture research and bird flu response programs could have long-term consequences.

— Debt ceiling decision still unclear after Trump meeting. Senate Republicans remain divided on how to address the looming debt ceiling after a White House meeting with President Donald Trump. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Finance Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) discussed whether to tie the increase to a tax-and-spending package, but no decision was reached. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) expressed frustration after the White House meeting. “It was all talk talk talk, Grassley said. “Just like the last 10 weeks.” While the House has moved to raise the ceiling using a GOP-only measure, Thune prefers a separate vote to force Democrats on record. Trump reiterated his support for permanent tax cuts, but disagreements persist regarding spending offsets. With a potential government shutdown looming and Republicans using a reconciliation process to bypass Democrats, the fate of the tax and debt ceiling package remains uncertain.

— Rep. Raúl Grijalva passes away at 77. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, a longtime Arizona Democrat, has died at 77 after battling cancer, his office announced. Grijalva, who was serving his 12th term, had been largely absent from Congress this year and was set to retire at the end of his term. He previously stepped down as the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. His passing marks the second House Democrat to die in office this month, following Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas on March 5.

Background. Grijalva represented Arizona’s 3rd congressional district from 2003 to 2023 and then Arizona’s 7th congressional district from 2023 until his death. Historically, both districts have been considered safe for Democrats, particularly due to their strong Hispanic populations and liberal leanings. The current 7th district includes significant portions of southern Arizona and shares a long border with Mexico. It encompasses tribal nations and has a strong Democratic base, similar to the 3rd district.

HPAI/BIRD FLU

— USDA reopens comment period on HPAI indemnity rule. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has reopened the comment period for its interim rule on indemnity payments for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Originally closed on March 3, the new deadline for public comments is April 14, as announced in a Federal Register notice.

CHINA

— China’s sharp rebuke of Panama port sale pressures Li Ka-shing’s CK Hutchison. China has fiercely criticized CK Hutchison Holdings’ planned $23 billion sale of its port assets near the Panama Canal to a BlackRock-led consortium, increasing pressure on Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s family to reconsider the deal, according to the South China Morning Post (link). While the sale is not final, analysts note that it does not require Chinese or Hong Kong regulatory approval — only shareholder and Panamanian government clearance.

Beijing’s concerns were highlighted in a Ta Kung Pao article that denounced the move as a “betrayal,” suggesting it could weaken China’s trade competitiveness by disrupting supply chains. Despite these pressures, analysts believe the deal’s attractive valuation and CK Hutchison’s history of asset recycling make completion likely. However, investors appear uneasy, as CK Hutchison’s stock fell 6.4% following the backlash.

With a 145-day negotiation window and multiple approvals pending, the company faces a difficult decision — proceed with the politically sensitive sale or risk a sharp stock price drop by backing out.

— China’s new bank lending sharply declines in February. Chinese banks extended 1.01 trillion yuan ($139.62 billion) in new yuan loans in February, well below a record 5.130 trillion yuan in January and the lowest for the month since 2020. Credit demand slowed significantly following a record start to the year, as the initial boost and seasonal front-loading of loans by banks tapered. Outstanding yuan loans rose 7.3% in February from a year earlier, down from the 7.5% pace in January and hitting a record low. Total social financing, which is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales, fell to 2.290 trillion yuan from a record 7.060 trillion yuan in January.

— China’s FDI remains weak. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China dropped 20.4% from year-ago in the first two months of 2025, faster than the 19.9% decline seen during the same period last year. China’s FDI has declined from year-earlier levels since June 2023.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Friday, the Cascades/Northern Intermountain Region, and Upper Mississippi Valley on
Saturday... ...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Saturday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday and over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast on Saturday.

KEY DATES IN MARCH

8-20: FOMC blackout where Fed officials cannot comment on monetary policy or the economy.
14: Final day of current continuing resolution (CR)
15: Tax filing deadline for partnerships and S corporations
18: NCAA men’s basketball finals
18-19: FOMC meets (interest rates)
20: Spring equinox
20: NCAA women’s basketball finals
21: USDA Chicken & Eggs report | Cattle on Feed | Milk Production
25: USDA Cold Storage report | USDA Food Price Outlook
27: USDA Hogs & Pigs report
27: MLB Opening Day
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

LINKS