Russia Wants Some Sanctions Lifted to Allow Food Exports from Ukraine

Tuesday primaries | Texas school killings; Biden addresses nation | FOMC minutes | Food prices

Poor countries face a crisis in food, fuel and finance, caused or worsened by the war in Ukraine, that is threatening to stoke unrest and push dozens of them into default. Poland is urging the U.S. and EU to help rapidly expand the rail infrastructure needed to export Ukraine’s grain to bypass Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports. World leaders accused Russia of holding back food supplies as a form of global blackmail…

… But Russia ready to allow food exports from Ukraine, with conditions, saying it is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions, the Interfax news agency cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying. Most observers see low odds of lifting of any sanctions in dealing with Putin.

U.K. Defense Ministry said there has been “no significant merchant shipping activity in or out of Odesa since the start of the war. Russia’s subsequent naval blockade of key Black Sea ports has deterred the commercial shipping industry from operating in the area.” Commenting on moving grain via overland transportation, the report said those avenues “are highly unlikely to compensate for the reduction in maritime capacity induced by the Russian blockade.” The report said this meant large quantities of Ukrainian grain is in storage — estimated by some at 20 to 22 million tonnes — and unable to be exported.

Crises in food, fuel and finance caused or worsened by the war in Ukraine threaten to stoke unrest in poorer countries and push dozens of them into default, global business and humanitarian leaders warned this week at the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum. High inflation and interest rates could push more than 70 countries into default.

Restrictions on food exports around the world threatens to add new strains to fragile global food supply chains. Malaysia will halt chicken exports starting June 1 in a bid to restrain domestic costs. (Straits Times) Scarce wheat supplies are leaving Egypt short of the bread that is a staple for the country. (WSJ) Food banks in the U.K. are straining for supplies as rising fuel and grocery costs have more people seeking help.

U.S. sets Russia on path to default. The Treasury Department will not allow Russia to pay its debtholders through American banks beginning today, revoking a special license that it had granted Russia since sanctions were first placed. Because Russia can’t use American banks to pay its IOUs, it’s virtually guaranteed to default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution.

Quick look at Tuesday primaries:

• Brian Kemp easily defeated David Perdue, a Donald Trump-backed challenger, in the Republican primary for Georgia governor. Kemp will face Stacey Abrams, a rematch from 2018.
• Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, won his primary for re-election. He and Kemp rebuffed Trump’s efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results.
• In Georgia’s Senate race, the Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock will face Herschel Walker, a former football star and a friend of Trump’s.
• House Ag Chairman David Scott (D-Ga.) easily held off his progressive primary opponents.
• Ken Paxton, the incumbent and a Trump ally, easily defeated George P. Bush in the runoff for Texas Attorney General.
• In South Texas, a Democratic house race between Henry Cuellar, the incumbent, and Jessica Cisneros, a progressive candidate, is too close to call.
• Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama will face Katie Britt, a former lobbyist, in a Republican primary runoff for the Senate next month.
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former press secretary, won the Republican nomination for Arkansas governor.
• Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) won the Arkansas GOP Senate primary, fending off right-wing challengers. Boozman’s main opponent in the race was former NFL player Jake Bequette.

Officials from the FDA and from the major formula manufacturers are set to discuss with U.S. lawmakers their attempts to address a nationwide shortage. Abbott Laboratories said Tuesday it will release about 300,000 cans of a specialty infant formula for children in urgent medical need, while the FDA cleared the import of about 2 million cans of formula from the U.K.

An 18-year-old lone gunman rushed his way into a Texas school and opened fire on classrooms of young children, killing 19 students and two adults, officials said. The gunman was killed by law enforcement and is also believed to have shot his grandmother before carrying out the attack. In a national address last night, President Joe Biden called on the U.S. to turn its collective pain into political action. Meanwhile, Biden will sign an executive order aimed at promoting police accountability today, the second anniversary of the killing of George Floyd, after facing setbacks in his push to overhaul law-enforcement practices.

North Korea tested a presumed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and two other missiles today, according to South Korean officials. The latest launches, which come on the heels of President Biden’s first trip to Asia since taking office, mark the 16th time that North Korea has tested its missiles this year.

Glencore will pay at least $1.2 billion and two business units will plead guilty to bribery in the U.K. and to conspiracy to violate U.S. anticorruption laws, resolving criminal probes into its global mining and trading business.

Beyond Meat hired Kim Kardashian as its “chief taste consultant.”

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings. Major Asian stock indexes ended mixed, Europe was up at midday.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow managed to close higher after a late push brought the Blue Chip index back into positive territory unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq which ended with losses. The Dow rose 48.38 points, 0.15%, at 31,928.62. The Nasdaq dropped 270.83 points, 2.35%, at 11,264.45. The S&P 500 was down 32.27 points, 0.81% at 3,941.48.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: July corn futures fell 14 1/2 cents to $7.71 3/4, a six-week low. December corn fell 13 3/4 cents at $7.25 1/4, a two-week low.
• Soy complex: July soybeans rose 6 cents to $16.93. November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cent to $15.17 1/2. July soymeal rose $4.60 to $427.10 per ton, while July soyoil fell 35 points to 80.12 cents per pound.
• Wheat: July SRW wheat fell 35 1/4 cents to $11.54 3/4, the lowest closing price since May 11. July HRW wheat fell 38 3/4 cents to $12.37 3/4, also a two-week low. July spring wheat fell 21 1/4 cents to $12.77 1/4.
• Cotton: July cotton futures fell 121 points to 141.54 cents per pound. Futures were under pressure from reports of widespread showers over West Texas that may bring relief to dry crops.
• Cattle: August live cattle fell 22.5 cents to $132.75, while August feeder futures gained $2.525 to $168.15. Choice cutout values rose 64 cents early Tuesday to $264.92. Early-week cash trade indicated prices will continue to slip.
• Hogs: July lean hogs fell $1.80 at $109.05. The CME lean hog index rose 91 cents to $102.08 (as of May 20), the fourth straight daily gain and a two-week high.
  

Ag markets today: Wheat futures sharply extended Tuesday’s hefty losses in overnight trade. Corn and soybeans followed wheat lower. As of 7:30 a.m. CT, winter wheat futures were trading 25 to 30 cents lower, spring wheat was mostly 24 to 26 cents lower, corn was 8 to 9 cents lower and soybeans were 4 to 10 cents lower. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around $1.25 higher, while the U.S. dollar index was more than 400 points higher.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. durable goods orders for April are expected to increase 0.7% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET)
• USDA Food Price Outlook at 9 am ET.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard delivers commencement remarks at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies at 12:15 p.m. ET.
• Fed releases minutes from its May 3-4 meeting at 2 p.m. ET.
• Congressional Budget Office publishes updated budget and economic projections through 2032 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
• Bank of Korea issues a policy statement at 9 p.m. ET.

Sales of newly built homes in April posted their biggest monthly drop in nine years, the latest sign that higher interest rates are reducing buyer demand. U.S. new-home sales fell 16.6% in April from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Even with signs that purchase activity is cooling, price gains are still strong. The median new-home sales price rose to $450,600 in April, up 19.6% from a year earlier.

America’s seaports are stretched to their limit just as retailers and manufacturers are set to begin their seasonal rush of importing ahead of the fall and end-of-year holidays, the WSJ reports (link). With shippers seeking to avoid the risk of delays, this year’s peak shipping season is expected to start weeks earlier than usual, at the end of June, just as back-to-school and other seasonal products flood in. “That will create high stakes for importers and for the White House as goods arrive against the backdrop of a fragile economy, racing inflation and fresh memories of last year’s massive container-ship backups,” the article observes.

Growth in the U.S. and global economies slowed in May as high inflation and rising interest rates dented demand. Business activity at services businesses in the U.S., eurozone, U.K. and Australia all grew more slowly in May amid rising prices, according to S&P Global surveys. The firm’s purchasing managers index surveys also reported Tuesday that factories in major global economies face supply-chain disruptions related to Covid-19 surges and the Ukraine war, as well as higher fuel costs and rising wages. The global economy faces a series of obstacles this year, ranging from Covid-19 lockdowns in China, soaring energy and food prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a broadening drive by central banks to combat high inflation by increasing borrowing costs.

FMCSA waives HOS requirements for trucks hauling baby formula ingredients. The U.S. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is issuing a national emergency declaration to waive hours-of-service (HOS) requirements for commercial vehicle drivers transporting baby formula ingredients and packaging. The exemption is in place until the earlier of the end of the emergency or June 30. The order comes after a product recall by top baby formula maker Abbott Laboratories and the closing of its manufacturing plant in Sturgis, Michigan, during an investigation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The closure has created a major infant formula shortage. The FMCSA order includes, but is not limited to, whey, casein, corn syrup and hydrolyzed protein, and containers and packaging for baby formula. A separate declaration first issued in March 2020 covering Covid-19 pandemic transportation issues has been repeatedly extended and already covers baby formula. That order is currently set to expire May 31.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading, on a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.729%. U.S. Treasury yields have been falling this week on a flight to quality move amid heightened concerns about the U.S. economy falling into recession. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $111.25 a barrel.

• California gas prices in some areas are higher than federal minimum wage. Several gas stations scattered throughout the state, including the Bay Area, Southern California, and the Yosemite region, are charging at least $7.25 for a gallon of fuel, according to the Gas Buddy website. The federal minimum hourly wage of $7.25 per hour has been unchanged since 2009, when it was raised from $6.55 per hour. California residents are subject to state law which mandates that the minimum wage be set at $14 per hour. As of Tuesday, Californians were paying the highest gas prices in the country, according to AAA.

• The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to show “above normal” activity, with an estimated 14 to 21 named storms, up to 10 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes.

• NWS weather: Flash flooding and severe weather threat for the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... ...Record heat for portions of California; some fire weather risk for portions of the Southwest... ...Mid-March weather for the Central Plains.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Active followthrough selling in wheat, corn
• Covid lockdowns cut China’s soyoil use (details in China section)
• India’s palm oil imports could hit 11-year low as soyoil use increases
• Indonesia to tighten governance of palm oil sector
• Choice beef eases, but movement improves
• Cash hog index picking up steam

— Summary: Russian forces moved to encircle Severodonetsk. The maneuver seeks to cut off supplies in what is becoming a key battleground in the war.

• The U.S. is reshaping Taiwan’s defenses for a possible war, using lessons from Ukraine in how to fend off a larger military. Link to details via the NYT. The article says “The aim is to turn Taiwan into what some officials call a “porcupine”— a territory bristling with armaments and other forms of U.S.-led support that appears too painful to attack.”
• Russia ready to allow food exports from Ukraine, with conditions. Russia is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions, the Interfax news agency cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying. “We have repeatedly stated on this point that a solution to the food problem requires a comprehensive approach, including the lifting of sanctions that have been imposed on Russian exports and financial transactions,” Rudenko was quoted as saying. “And it also requires the demining by the Ukrainian side of all ports where ships are anchored. Russia is ready to provide the necessary humanitarian passage, which it does every day.” Russia is in touch with the United Nations on the issue, Rudenko was quoted as saying by RIA news agency. The U.S. and Britain have floated the idea of using Western ships to escort Ukrainian vessels out of the Black Sea. Rudenko says that would “seriously exacerbate the situation.”
• Poland is pushing the U.S. and European Union to help rapidly expand the rail infrastructure needed to export Ukraine’s looming grain harvest, circumventing Russia’s naval chokehold in the Black Sea.

• U.S. Treasury Dept. moved to cut off Russia’s ability to make payments on its dollar-denominated sovereign debt, putting Russia on a path toward defaulting on its foreign debts this summer and deepening the country’s economic isolation after its invasion of Ukraine. Economists estimate that the costs associated with sovereign defaults to be roughly equal to between 2% to 3% of the size of the country’s economy—and hurt economic growth in the long-run. Not only do they typically elevate a country’s borrowing costs, they also put pressure on a country’s banking system.

  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: “If Russia is unable to find a way to make these payments, and they technically default on their debt, I don’t think that really represents a significant change in Russia’s situation,” she told reporters last week at a G7 finance ministers meeting. “They’re already cut off from global capital markets, and that would continue.”
  

• Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, declared a state of emergency in response to what he called the “economic crisis” created by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The move will allow him and his government to rule by decree, bypassing parliament.
  
• Russian fuel oil exports to Greece reached a new high in April, with ship-to-ship (STS) transfers becoming more common.
  
• The Russian parliament moved toward approving legislation that would allow the state to nationalize the assets of foreign companies that have left Russia.
  

— Market impacts:

• Ukraine’s economy has lost about $1 trillion because of Russia’s invasion, according to Oleh Ustenko, an economic adviser to the Ukrainian president, as the NYT reports. He said the estimate was based both on direct losses, such as destruction of infrastructure, and indirect losses such as reduced investment and exports. Ukraine’s GDP stood at $155.6 billion in 2020, according to the World Bank.
• A harsh winter could force Europe to ration gas, a global energy leader warns. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said Tuesday that he was warning leaders in Europe to create backup plans in case harsh winter weather forced countries to conserve natural gas. “I’m afraid that I cannot exclude the risk this winter that we are facing a rationing of gas,” Birol said during an interview with the NYT at the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering of global business leaders in Davos, Switzerland. “I’m advising several European governments to prepare a contingency plan.”
• Countries around the world have enacted a wave of export curbs on food since the start of the Ukraine war, a trend that economists say risks aggravating shortages and global food-price inflation. On nearly every continent, nations have put new restrictions and bans on products ranging from wheat, corn and edible oils to beans, lentils and sugar. Lebanon has even banned the export of ice cream and beer, the WSJ points out.
• The European Central Bank said that Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased risks to the eurozone’s financial stability. The bank cited higher commodity prices and sluggish growth. Its bi-annual report on financial risks stated that “virtually all” aspects of economic activity and financial conditions have been impacted by the war.

— Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said he is skeptical about the prospects of another reconciliation package. “We learned the hard way at the end of last year that one or two senators on the Democratic side can stop it. If they came forward and said we see a path I’ll gladly join in that parade. But until they do, I think we ought to focus on what we can do through regular order,” Durbin told reporters.

— Jen Psaki joins MSNBC. MSNBC on Tuesday announced the hiring of former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. Psaki, who left the White House earlier this month, will appear on NBC’s various channels and platforms as part of its politics coverage this fall and will eventually host a new original program on MSNBC, which the network said is currently under development for streaming.

— Senate faces a big day of voting on nominees as Democrats push to approve a long list of President Joe Biden’s nominees before lawmakers depart Thursday for a 10-day break. After voting to advance a package of federal judges, lawmakers will turn to a list of 10 nominees for executive branch posts that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wants confirmed quickly. Among them are nominees to the Environmental Protection Agency and the departments of Agriculture, Labor, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, and Energy.

— China has cut its forecast for domestic sugar output as nations move to limit exports of the sweetener because of food security fears stoked by the Ukraine war, the South China Morning Post notes (link). Pakistan imposed a “complete ban” on sugar exports earlier this month, worried about high inflation. Russia in March also banned sugar exports until the end of August following Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Various sugar cane mills in Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter, are reported to be cancelling some export contracts and shifting production to ethanol to cash in on high energy prices, which have also been pushed up by the war in Ukraine. Some 20 countries and regions have food export bans in place, including for wheat, soybean, beef, butter and sugar, according to the data from the International Food Policy Research Institute.

— Secretary of State Antony Blinken will deliver a long-promised speech Thursday setting out U.S. policy toward China. Although Blinken’s speech will be watched closely for insights into how U.S. policy toward China may be evolving, it’s not expected to offer much that’s new to help guide policy makers, analysts and markets, according to reports.

— Covid lockdowns cut China’s soyoil use. Plunging demand for soyoil in China is expected to cut consumption of soybeans. A two-month lockdown in Shanghai and Covid restrictions in several other major cities have cut soyoil consumption, as restaurants account for about half of the country’s soyoil use per year. Demand for all edible oils in 2021-22 is forecast to drop 8.5% from a year ago to 39 MMT, the first decline this century, according to state-run National Grain & Oils Information Center. Soyoil consumption fell 11% and 15%, respectively, the past two months from the same periods in 2019, before the Covid pandemic, according to estimates from Mysteel, a China-based commodity consultancy. It forecasts soyoil use at 16.7 MMT this year, down about 500,000 MT from 2019.

— More meetings added to RFS final rule review at OMB. There is a court deadline of June 3 to set the final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels for 2020, 2021 and 2022. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) lists two meetings on June 1 — with UNICA, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, and another with Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), member of the Judiciary, House Administration and Rules committees.

— Michigan manufacturing plant at the heart of the nationwide baby formula shortage will reopen on June 4. The first new batches of formula are expected to be available to consumers on or around June 20. Similac and Alimentum powder formulas that were recalled in February are not included in the upcoming product release, the plant said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Federal Trade Commission opened an inquiry Tuesday into the infant formula shortage, asking for information about how industry mergers, federal regulations and contracts to help feed low-income women and children may have contributed to the problem,

— Pfizer will sell 23 of its drugs and vaccines at not-for-profit prices to some of the world’s poorest countries and work with governments to address obstacles that often delay the arrival of drugs. Pfizer plans to provide drugs and vaccines for cancer, heart conditions and autoimmune diseases — which the company said is much of the patent-protected portfolio that it sells without a partner — to 45 low-income countries. The arrangement could provide long-term benefits for the industry, helping build a potentially large new market for prescription drugs and vaccines.

— One in five adult Covid survivors in the U.S. may develop long Covid. A large study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which evaluated electronic medical records for nearly two million people, found that the most common post-Covid conditions, regardless of age, were respiratory problems and musculoskeletal pain.

— Details on Tuesday primaries:

• Georgia: Incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia easily beat former Sen. David Perdue. Georgia Atty. Gen. Chris Carr and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger also fended off challenges from those backed by former President Donald Trump. Raffensperger cleared the threshold to avoid a runoff against Rep. Jody Hice. Stacey Abrams, who easily clinched the Democratic nomination for governor, is facing a rematch of her 2018 campaign against Kemp. Early polls have shown Kemp with an advantage. In the race for the Senate, Georgia football legend Hershel Walker and incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock easily clinched their respective parties’ nominations Tuesday. Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath beat fellow Dem. Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (redistricting prompted McBath to switch to run in Bourdeaux’s suburban Atlanta district). Bourdeaux became the third incumbent to lose in a primary. She followed losses by Reps. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.). Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and the other safe incumbents won their nominations, but Trump’s two chosen candidates in the open 6th and 10th District GOP primaries, Jake Evans and Vernon Jones, are headed to runoffs after finishing second. Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), the House Ag Chairman and who has represented southwest Atlanta for two decades, easily held off his progressive primary opponents.
• Alabama: In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Mo Brooks secured a spot in a runoff, finishing second behind Katie Britt, a former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former White House press secretary, secured the GOP gubernatorial endorsement, seeking to follow in the footsteps of her father, former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
• Texas: Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton easily surpassed George P. Bush, the state’s land commissioner, in a runoff as he pursues a third term. Rep. Henry Cuellar, the only remaining House Democrat who opposes abortion, is in a tight primary runoff in Texas against immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros, emphasized her support for “unfettered access to abortion care. The race remained too close to call late Tuesday evening.
• Arkansas: Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking member on the Senate Ag Committee, was projected to win the Arkansas GOP Senate primary, fending off right-wing challengers who tried to unseat the mild-mannered senator. Boozman’s main opponent in the race was former NFL player Jake Bequette, who was largely financed by GOP mega-donor Robert Uihlein. Conservative activist Jan Morgan and pastor Heath Loftis were also running in the primary. With 95% of the vote in, Boozman led Bequette by a margin of 58.0% to 20.7%; Morgan had 19.0%. Boozman is in line to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee if Republicans win control of the Senate. Natalie James, a realtor from Little Rock, took an early lead among the three Democrats running in Tuesday’s primary hoping to challenge him in the fall.

— Nineteen children and two adults were killed at a Texas elementary school. On Tuesday, a shooter killed at least 21 people at Robb Elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, making it the deadliest U.S. school shooting since the Sandy Hook Elementary massacre in 2012, and the second-deadliest school shooting in U.S. history. Officials stated that the now deceased Salvador Ramos, an 18-year-old from Uvalde, shot his grandmother before traveling to the school. President Biden addressed the nation. “It’s time to turn this pain into action,” the president stated, calling for “common sense” gun laws. Biden will issue an executive order that includes creating a national registry of officers fired for police misconduct.

— North Korea launched ballistic missiles. The tests coincided with the conclusion of President Joe Biden’s Asia trip and the Quad meeting in Tokyo.

— Glencore will pay at least $1.2 billion as part of agreements to resolve criminal probes involving bribery and price manipulation in its global mining and trading business. Link to details via the WSJ. U.S. prosecutors said the settlement with the mining and commodity-trading giant followed a “multiyear scheme to manipulate benchmarks used to set prices for oil at two of our country’s busiest ports.”

— Iran secured access to secret U.N. atomic agency reports almost two decades ago and circulated the documents among top officials who prepared cover stories and falsified a record to conceal suspected past work on nuclear weapons, the Wall Street Journal exclusively reported (link).