News/Markets/Policy Updates: Jan. 30, 2025
Other topics in today’s dispatch include: (1) Trump targets spending power limits; (2) Lutnick backs tariffs, slams Canada on dairy in Commerce nomination hearing; (3) Patel’s FBI nomination faces scrutiny; (4) UPS lowers 2025 revenue outlook amid Amazon shift; (5) Midair collision near D.C.; (6) Railroads ramp up cost-cutting for higher profits; (7) Fed holds rates steady, signals no rush to cut; (8) Trump and the Fed: Renewed clash over interest rates; (9) U.S. economy slows slightly in Q4 2024 but remains resilient; (10) Tempered U.S. ag export sales activity to China continues for most commodities; (11) Dreyfus says Brazil soymeal cargo returned from port for reprocessing; (12) Somber outlook for U.S. agriculture; (13) Senate Ag Committee shuffles leadership; (14) Oil prices drop amid rising U.S. stockpiles and trade uncertainty: (15) Big oil’s reality check; (16) Mexico optimistic amid Trump’s tariff threats; (17) Canadian oil companies resilient against potential U.S. tariffs; (18) GOP lawmakers target SNAP overpayments with new bill; (19) Cargill to shut down Arkansas turkey plant amid workforce cuts; (20) Ukraine grain exports continue to outpace year ago; (21) Trump orders Guantanamo Bay expansion for migrant detention.
— OMB rescinds controversial funding memo, but uncertainty remains. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) officially rescinded its Monday memo that paused federal funding and mandated a program review. Despite this, the White House insists the funding freeze remains in effect, citing ongoing enforcement of President Trump’s executive orders. The move follows legal challenges, including a temporary injunction from a federal judge and a lawsuit from 22 states and D.C. Federal agencies, nonprofits, and businesses remain uncertain about funding impacts, while lawmakers express mixed reactions. As confusion persists, stakeholders await further guidance on the administration’s next steps. A federal judge issued a stay on the original OMB memo, effective until Monday (Feb. 3). Another federal judge in Rhode Island, Jack McConnell, is considering blocking the Trump administration’s broader efforts to freeze funding. Some 22 states and D.C. sued over funding access issues. Judge McConnell expressed concern that the states were still unable to access funds despite the OMB rescinding its memo. He instructed the states to submit a proposed restraining order and gave the Trump administration 24 hours to respond before deciding. — GOP stands by OMB nominee Vought amid budget turmoil. Republican support for Russell Vought remains firm despite the Trump administration’s shifting stance on a proposed funding pause. As the Senate Budget Committee votes today on his nomination for budget director, no GOP members have opposed him, signaling confidence in his confirmation. Vought’s stance on the Impoundment Control Act (ICA), which he argues unconstitutionally limits presidential spending powers, suggests Republicans may be open to expanding executive control over the federal budget. — Trump targets spending power limits. The Trump administration is considering a legal challenge to the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, aiming to expand presidential control over federal spending, according to a confidential document obtained by Bloomberg. The plan suggests using executive orders and legal challenges to weaken congressional budget authority, citing separation of powers concerns. It also proposes expanding executive influence over independent agencies and federal employee compensation. The White House appears prepared for a legal battle as it seeks to assert greater control over fiscal decisions. — RFK Jr. faces scrutiny in HHS confirmation hearing. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation hearing for Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Wednesday (Jan. 29) before the Senate Finance Committee lasted over three hours, revealing key points: · Vaccine stance: Kennedy attempted to soften his past anti-vaccine rhetoric, stating support for vaccines but struggling to explain previous controversial statements. · Health policy priorities: He emphasized addressing chronic diseases, promoting safe food, removing conflicts of interest in health agencies, and using “gold-standard science.” Kennedy said that federal dollars spent on SNAP and school lunch programs could be one place to start, “helping kids” avoid obesity and chronic illness by cutting out sugary drinks and “ultra-processed foods.” He would also fund federal research into the link between food additives and chronic illnesses, though he didn’t specify which ingredients sparked the most concern. “I don’t want to take food away from anybody,” Kennedy said. · Kennedy emphasized his support for American farmers, stating: · Agricultural practices and health. Kennedy expressed concerns about current agricultural practices: · Collaboration with USDA. Kennedy emphasized his intention to work closely with the Department of Agriculture: · Regulatory approach. Kennedy outlined his approach to agricultural regulations: · Future of agriculture. Kennedy shared his vision for the future of American agriculture: · Controversial past: Democrats challenged his history of health misinformation and grasp of Medicare and Medicaid. · Republican support: Some GOP senators backed Kennedy, with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) calling him “awesome,” though the final vote remains uncertain. · Financial concerns: His financial ties to lawsuits against Merck raised conflict-of-interest questions. · Abortion stance: Kennedy sidestepped direct answers but aligned with Trump’s anti-abortion policies, shifting from his previous pro-choice stance. Bottom line: With strong opposition and divided support, Kennedy’s confirmation vote is expected to be closely contested. Today he attends another confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. The Senate Finance Committee expects to hold its RFK Jr. vote next week. — Zeldin confirmed as EPA administrator in party-line Senate vote. On Wednesday (Jan. 29), the Republican-led Senate confirmed former Congressman Lee Zeldin as the new administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in a 56-42 vote. A staunch Trump ally, Zeldin is expected to steer the agency in alignment with the former president’s environmental policies. Vote breakdown: All 53 Republicans backed Zeldin, joined by three Democrats — Sens. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), Mark Kelly (Ariz.), and John Fetterman (Pa.). Policy direction: Zeldin is expected to roll back environmental regulations, emphasizing economic growth and private-sector collaboration. Biofuel policy. Zeldin has raised concerns among ethanol and biofuel advocates due to his past opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and ethanol. However, during his confirmation process, Zeldin made some commitments that suggest a potential shift in his stance. As a congressman, Zeldin had a history of opposing biofuels and the RFS. He signed letters expressing concern about proposed RFS volume increases, citing issues with the “E10 blend wall.” In 2017, Zeldin cosponsored an unsuccessful bill to repeal the RFS. He raised concerns about the validity and practicality of higher ethanol blends like E15 and E85. But during his confirmation process, Zeldin made several statements that indicate a potential change in his approach: Biofuel industry representatives have expressed cautious optimism: Of note: While Zeldin’s past positions raised initial concerns, his recent statements during the confirmation process suggest he may be open to working with the biofuels industry in his new role as EPA Administrator. Climate stance: Critics warn his leadership could weaken climate initiatives, favoring fossil fuel interests. Reactions: Republicans praise his “common-sense regulation” approach, while environmental groups call his confirmation a serious setback for public health and environmental justice. Bottom line. As Zeldin assumes leadership, his tenure is likely to reshape the EPA’s role in U.S. environmental policy for years to come. — Lutnick backs tariffs, slams Canada on dairy in Commerce nomination hearing. Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, strongly defended tariffs and criticized Canada over dairy trade during his Senate confirmation hearing. Lutnick accused Canada of treating U.S. dairy farmers “horribly” and vowed to secure better trade conditions under the USMCA, which President Trump wants a renegotiation on an accelerated timeline. Of note: Canadian Pacific Kansas City says it expects shipments in North America to grow this year despite the looming threat of tariffs from the Trump administration. Lutnick dismissed concerns that tariffs drive inflation, citing China and India’s policies, and expressed support for broad-based tariffs over a selective approach. Lutnick also linked Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico to border security and fentanyl concerns. Lutnick said he prefers an “across-the-board” approach to imposing tariffs on foreign goods to put pressure on other countries to lower their own barriers to U.S. exports. “Our farmers, our ranchers and our fishermen are treated with disrespect” by countries around the world, Lutnick said. “We need the disrespect to end.” To accomplish that, Lutnick said he favors using across-the-board tariffs on all imports from a particular country, rather than a much more targeted approach. “I think when you pick one product in Mexico, they’ll pick one product,” Lutnick said. “You know, we pick avocados, they pick white corn, we pick tomatoes, they pick yellow corn. All you’re doing is picking on farmers, which is just not going to happen.” On AI, he warned that China’s DeepSeek launch signaled the need for stronger U.S. tech competitiveness. The Senate panel votes on his nomination Feb. 5. — Patel’s FBI nomination faces scrutiny. Trump’s pick for FBI director, Kash Patel, faces Senate lawmakers today in a contentious confirmation hearing. Democrats argue Patel’s appointment threatens the FBI’s independence, while some Republicans may be swayed to oppose him. His nomination is the first major test of Trump’s DOJ overhaul, which has already unsettled career officials. If confirmed, Patel is expected to lead a broad shake-up, with up to six top FBI executives anticipating reassignment. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: Asian and European shares were mixed to firmer overnight. Many China markets remained closed for the new year holiday. The Euro Stoxx 50 and German DAX hit record highs, while the UK’s FTSE 100 is within striking distance of a new record high. U.S. Dow opened mixed. In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Equities yesterday: All three major indices finished with losses as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 failed to break into positive territory at all during the session and the Dow failed to end higher after falling lower around midday. The Dow ended down 136.83 points, 0.31%, at 44,713.52. The Nasdaq lost 101.26 points, 0.51%, at 19,532.32. The S&P 500 lost 28.39 points, 0.47%, at 6,039.31.
— UPS lowers 2025 revenue outlook amid Amazon shift. UPS announced Thursday that it expects 2025 revenue to reach $89 billion, falling short of the projected $95 billion. The company disclosed an agreement with its largest customer — widely understood to be Amazon — to cut shipment volumes by 50% in the second half of next year. Amazon has been steadily reducing its reliance on UPS as it expands its in-house delivery network.
— Other earnings:
- Tesla: Profit rose but missed expectations. Musk remains bullish on AI and robotics, boosting shares in premarket trading.
- Meta: Record revenue and a $25 million Trump lawsuit settlement didn’t dampen momentum — shares gained ~2% premarket.
- Microsoft: Cloud growth slowed despite strong earnings, leading to a ~3.5% drop before the open.
Bottom line: Markets are reacting to AI optimism (Tesla, Meta) but punishing slowing cloud momentum (Microsoft).
— Midair collision near D.C.: Fatal crash involving American Airlines jet. An American Airlines Bombardier jet collided midair with a Black Hawk military helicopter and crashed into the Potomac River near Reagan National Airport. A U.S. military official said the helicopter was out on a “training flight.” The military crew involved in a plane crash over Washington was a “fairly experienced” one, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a video message. The Army helicopter was conducting a training flight, Hegseth said. The unit has 48-hour pause on contingency missions. The flight was carrying 64 people, the airline said. Reports say there were no survivors. American Airlines’ shares fell about 3% in premarket trading. The flight was arriving from Wichita, Kansas and was flying at an altitude of about 300 feet at the time of the collision, according to FlightRadar24. American and Russian figure skaters were on board the flight, according to the countries’ official groups. President Donald Trump said he was briefed on the accident Wednesday. “Thank you for the incredible work being done by our first responders,” he said in a statement. Reagan National Airport is expected to reopen at 11 a.m. ET.
— Railroads ramp up cost-cutting for higher profits. Norfolk Southern boosted its net earnings by nearly 40% in Q4 to $1.13 billion, driven by improved efficiency and over $370 million in cost reductions. Despite a 2% dip in revenue and modest volume growth, the railroad’s operating improvements — mirroring Union Pacific’s recent gains — underscore the industry’s focus on cost control amid weak freight demand, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Under pressure from activist investors, Norfolk Southern increased train speed and reduced terminal dwell time. CEO Mark George now aims to exceed the company’s initial $150 million expense reduction goal for 2025.
— Fed holds rates steady, signals no rush to cut. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday opted as expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, with policymakers emphasizing patience in adjusting monetary policy. The post-meeting statement showed minor adjustments, tightening labor market observations and acknowledging that inflation remains “somewhat elevated.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that there is no urgency to cut rates, stressing that decisions will be data driven. He also dismissed concerns about political influence, particularly regarding former President Trump’s calls for rate cuts, emphasizing the Fed’s independence. Powell highlighted ongoing economic uncertainties, including trade policy, tariffs, and immigration, but refrained from speculation on their impacts.
Additionally, the Fed has initiated a five-year review of its monetary policy framework, though Powell affirmed that the 2% inflation target will remain unchanged. The overall stance signals that the central bank is maintaining a cautious, measured approach, with no immediate changes expected unless economic conditions shift significantly.
— Trump and the Fed: Renewed clash over interest rates. President Donald Trump has resumed his criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, accusing them of failing to control inflation. Following Powell’s recent announcement that the Fed would maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts, Trump took to social media to declare that he would act himself. “Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, before accusing the central bank of being distracted by a string of causes that conservatives have assailed. “If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, ‘green’ energy, and fake climate change, Inflation would never have been a problem. Instead, we suffered from the worst Inflation in the History of our Country!” the president wrote.
While Powell remained neutral, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to data-driven decisions, the political landscape has shifted since Trump’s first term. With key Senate allies retiring and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defending the Fed’s independence, questions remain about how forcefully the central bank can resist political pressure.
The stakes are high as inflation concerns persist, and Trump, wary of public frustration over high prices, has so far avoided direct calls for rate cuts. However, the battle between the White House and the Fed could intensify, especially if Trump seeks greater influence over monetary policy through future appointments.
Outlook: murky. Meddling with the Fed could backfire on Trump, Paul Donovan, the chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in an investor note this morning: “Overt criticism of the Fed by Trump risks tilting the Fed toward hawkishness in any close call decision, to prove their independence.” Economists at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo see two cuts this year, the earliest possibly coming in June, while Deutsche Bank sees no cuts as its base case.
— U.S. economy slows slightly in Q4 2024 but remains resilient. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1% growth, according to the Commerce Department. This figure fell short of economists’ expectations of 2.5%. Key highlights:
- Q4 GDP Growth: 2.3% (vs. 3.1% in Q3)
- Annual 2024 Growth: 2.8% (slightly below 2023’s 2.9%)
- Factors Affecting Growth: Slower consumer spending, reduced investment, and steady government spending
Despite the deceleration, the economy remained resilient amid high interest rates and inflation concerns. The data aligns with the Federal Reserve’s goal of a “soft landing,” avoiding a recession while slowing growth to sustainable levels. Further GDP revisions in the coming months may refine this picture. Looking ahead, economists expect continued moderation in 2025.
| AG MARKETS |
— Ag markets today:
Corn and beans weaker, wheat modestly firmer overnight. Corn and soybean futures pulled back from Wednesday’s strong gains overnight, while wheat pivoted around unchanged. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were 5 to 9 cents lower and wheat futures were fractionally to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index was trading just above unchanged, and front-month crude oil futures were modestly lower.
Slow cash cattle negotiations. Packers have been slow to establish cash cattle bids for the week, while feedlots want higher prices again. After surging $24.40 during a 10-week span of gains, cash cattle prices may decline this week, though it’s unlikely they will fall much as feedlots are current.
Cash hog index gaining momentum. The CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $82.59 as of Jan. 28, marking the biggest daily gain during the rise over the past three weeks. The index is now $2.16 off the Jan. 9 seasonal low.
— Ag trade: Japan purchased 89,134 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 29,070 MT U.S. and 60,064 MT Canadian.
— Tempered U.S. ag export sales activity to China continues for most commodities. Weekly Export Sales activity for China from USDA for the week ended Jan. 23 showed continued muted activity for most commodities for 2024-25 with no sales of wheat, corn, or sorghum reported. There were net sales of 145,349 metric tons of soybeans and net sales of 3,640 running bales of upland cotton. Sales of US pork to China remained active with net sales of 11,240 metric tons with net sales of672 metric tons of beef for delivery in 2025.
— Dreyfus says Brazil soymeal cargo returned from port for reprocessing. A cargo of Louis Dreyfus Company soymeal destined for export from the southern Brazilian port of Paranagua was returned for reprocessing at one of the company’s local plants, the firm told Reuters. A person with knowledge of the matter said the soymeal was sent by trucks to the port and subsequently rejected last week for containing impurities. The source said the soymeal cargo’s origin was a Louis Dreyfus factory in Ponta Grossa in the state of Parana.
— Somber outlook for U.S. agriculture. The U.S. farm economy is facing one of its worst downturns in decades, according to projections from the Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University (link to Southern Ag Today article). In over 40 years of analysis, AFPC said it has never seen such widespread financial distress among representative farms growing feed grains, cotton, rice, and wheat. Unlike past downturns, it notes, farmers have no viable alternative crops to switch to for profitability. With nearly all major row crops projected to be unprofitable through 2025-26, experts warn that enhanced farm safety net programs are urgently needed to prevent a long-term crisis.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: March corn rallied 11 3/4 cents to $4.97, marking an eight-month high close.
• Soy complex: March soybeans rose 15 1/2 cents to $10.60 1/2, near the daily high. March soybean meal rose $8.20 to $309.80, near the session high. March soybean oil fell 16 points to 44.97 cents, near mid-range.
• Wheat: March SRW wheat surged 17 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/2, forging a seven-week high close, while March HRW wheat rallied 19 1/4 cents to $5.80 1/4, ending the session above the 100-day moving average. March HRS futures rose 16 cents to $6.13 3/4.
• Cotton: March cotton fell 32 points to 66.66 cents and nearer the daily low.
• Cattle: Nearby February live cattle slid $1.525 to $207.025, while most-active April fell $2.325 to $204.95. Expiring January feeder futures skid $1.275 cents to $280.555, while most-active March feeders dropped $2.975 to $275.275.
• Hogs: April lean hog futures climbed 42.5 cents to $91.325 and settled near mid-range. Meanwhile, nearby February futures closed steady at $83.90.
| FARM POLICY |
— Senate Ag Committee shuffles leadership. The Senate Ag Committee announced subcommittee leadership changes, with significant Democratic reshuffling under ranking member Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).
- Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) replaces Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) as ranking member.
- Rural Development: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) takes over as chair from Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.).
- Nutrition: Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) steps in as top Democrat, replacing Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), while Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) takes over as top Republican from Mike Braun (R-Ind.).
- Livestock, Dairy, Poultry, and Food Safety: Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) becomes the top Democrat, replacing Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).
Upshot: These subcommittee leaders will shape hearings and influence key aspects of the upcoming farm bill.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Oil prices drop amid rising U.S. stockpiles and trade uncertainty. Oil prices declined on Wednesday, with U.S. crude hitting its lowest level of the year after a larger-than-expected rise in domestic stockpiles. Brent crude fell $0.91, 1.2%, to $76.58 per barrel, while WTI dropped $1.15, 1.6%, to $72.62. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3.46-million-barrel inventory increase, marking the third consecutive weekly decline in refinery intake. Adding to market uncertainty, the White House reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Feb. 1, while ongoing sanctions on Russian energy and global economic concerns weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, offering little clarity on potential rate cuts. Traders now look ahead to the Feb. 3 OPEC+ meeting, where members are expected to proceed with a planned supply increase. Supply risks in Libya eased after protests subsided, but analysts warn that geopolitical instability remains a concern.
— Big oil’s reality check. Despite Trump’s pro-drilling stance, Exxon and Chevron are expected to report annual earnings declines, with shares dropping since Election Day. Market forces, not rhetoric, dictate oil prices, and industry leaders warn against overproduction. With oil trading below profitability thresholds, Trump’s tariff threats could temporarily boost prices but risk derailing inflation efforts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, needing oil at $98 per barrel, faces pressure to either push prices up or engage in another oil price war.
| TRADE & TRADE POLICY |
— Mexico optimistic amid Trump’s tariff threats. Mexico received reassuring news Wednesday as Howard Lutnick, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce secretary, suggested that Mexico and Canada could avoid Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs — provided they take swift action to curb fentanyl trafficking. President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed confidence that the tariff would not be implemented, emphasizing ongoing dialogue with the U.S. administration.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s government plans to challenge Google’s decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” and has reaffirmed Esteban Moctezuma’s position as ambassador to the U.S. amid shifting diplomatic challenges.
— Canadian oil companies resilient against potential U.S. tariffs. President Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports (as soon as Saturday, Feb. 1) has raised concerns for Canadian oil producers, but the situation is not as dire as it may seem, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). While Canada heavily relies on the U.S. market for its crude oil exports, the relationship is mutually dependent, with the U.S. importing about 60% of its crude oil from Canada.
The cost of any imposed tariffs would likely be shared among Canadian oil producers, U.S. refiners, and American consumers. U.S. refineries, particularly those in landlocked regions like the Midwest and Rocky Mountain areas, are most vulnerable due to their reliance on Canadian heavy crude.
Several factors could help offset the potential negative impact on Canadian producers:
- Scheduled maintenance: Planned turnarounds are expected to reduce oil sands production capacity by 380,000 barrels per day in Q2 and 140,000 barrels per day in Q3.
- Limited alternatives: While U.S. refiners have access to heavy crude from other countries, options are limited. Mexico and Colombia have little additional volume to offer, and Iraq remains the largest potential source of incremental heavy crude imports.
- Trans Mountain pipeline: The recently completed pipeline provides Canadian producers with increased export capacity to Asia.
Canada has a potential retaliatory measure at its disposal: production curtailment. In early 2019, a modest 325,000 barrels per day reduction ordered by the Alberta government significantly narrowed the price discount on Canadian crude compared to the U.S. benchmark.
The market has already factored in some negative sentiment, with Canadian energy companies underperforming their U.S. counterparts by about 4 percentage points since Trump’s election. However, some Canadian companies, such as Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil, are better positioned due to their domestic refining capabilities and consumption patterns.
Upshot: While tariffs would undoubtedly pose challenges for Canadian oil companies, the interdependence of the U.S./Canada oil trade, along with various mitigating factors and strategic options, suggests that these companies are likely to weather the storm.
| CONGRESS |
— GOP lawmakers target SNAP overpayments with new bill. Iowa Republicans Rep. Randy Feenstra and Sen. Joni Ernst introduced the Snap Back Inaccurate SNAP Payments Act to reduce federal spending by tightening oversight of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Introduced on Wednesday (Jan. 29), the bill aims to eliminate the $54 error tolerance threshold, require states to recollect overpayments, and hold states accountable for payment errors. The move follows USDA data revealing an 11.68% error rate in SNAP for fiscal year (FY) 2023, leading to $10 billion in overpayments. Republican lawmakers argue for stricter oversight, while USDA notes that most errors stem from unintentional mistakes rather than fraud. The bill reflects broader GOP efforts to curb waste in federal welfare programs.
| MEAT & MEAT INDUSTRY |
— Cargill to shut down Arkansas turkey plant amid workforce cuts. Cargill announced it will close its turkey processing facility in Springdale, Arkansas, on Aug. 1, affecting 1,100 workers. Processing will shift to plants in Missouri and Virginia. Despite the closure, Cargill emphasized that turkey remains a key part of its protein portfolio and pledged to fulfill contracts with growers. The move is part of a broader effort to reduce its global workforce by 5% following declining earnings in its meat, grain, and oilseed sectors. Other poultry companies have also closed plants in recent years.
| RUSSIA & UKRAINE |
— Ukraine grain exports continue to outpace year ago. As of Jan. 29, Ukraine’s 2024-25 grain exports stood sat 25.35 MMT, up 2.2 MMT (9.5%) from the same period last year. Exports included 10.7 MMT of wheat (up 1.67 MMT from last year), 12.17 MMT of corn (down 300,000 MT) and 2.06 MMT of barley (up 660,000 MT).
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
— Trump orders Guantanamo Bay expansion for migrant detention. President Donald Trump announced a plan to prepare the U.S. Naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to house up to 30,000 migrants deemed “criminal illegal aliens.” The directive, issued via executive order on Jan. 29, calls for expanding existing infrastructure to accommodate this new detention capacity. Key details:
- Executive order: Trump directed the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to begin preparations for a migrant detention facility at Guantanamo Bay.
- Legislative context: The announcement coincided with the signing of the Laken Riley Act, aimed at detaining undocumented migrants charged with theft and violent offenses.
- Rationale: Trump argued that some migrants pose security risks too great to repatriate, describing Guantanamo Bay as a secure deterrent.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the move as an “act of brutality,” citing human rights concerns. Critics question the ethics and legality of using a historically controversial facility for civilian detention. While specifics remain unclear, ICE is expected to manage the expanded facility, building upon Guantanamo’s past use for processing migrants. The directive marks a significant shift in U.S. immigration policy, repurposing a site long associated with counterterrorism for immigration enforcement.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys today... ...Widespread precipitation, including heavy mountain snow, to return to the Northwest, northern California, and the northern Rockies.
| KEY DATES IN JANUARY |
31: Employers and financial institutions should send out W-2 and 1099 tax forms
31: USDA Cattle
| LINKS |
Economic aid for farmers | Disaster aid for farmers | Farm Bureau summary of aid/disaster/farm bill extension | 45Z tax incentive program | Poultry and swine line speeds | U.S./China Phase 1 agreement | WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |