RFA Quickly Responds to Reuters Article on ‘Dirty Ethanol’

Sen. Grassley has some revealing comments on ag disaster aid and livestock market reforms

USDA daily export sale: 104,000 metric tons of soybeans to Taiwan during the 2022-2023 marketing year.

The euro rose back above parity with the dollar, following the European Central Bank’s decision to sharply increase rates to temper eurozone inflation. Many emerging-market currencies have also rebounded, while the yen saw a significant lift as frustration grew over the Japanese currency’s recent weakness. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, told reporters on Friday that sudden moves in FX rates are “undesirable.”

European energy ministers are meeting in Brussels are under pressure to quickly agree on measures to prevent the energy crisis triggering a financial meltdown. Proposals range from setting mandatory targets on reducing electricity consumption during peak hours to cutbacks in electricity utilization. Price caps: The most controversial of the measures is putting a price ceiling on gas imported from Russia, and how the caps would impact different regions and countries. Trading suspensions: Caps may also be imposed on the margin limits that energy exchanges can ask for, or other temporary suspensions of European power market derivatives. Windfall revenues: Levies would be imposed on European electricity producers by setting a threshold at less than the current market rate and using the cash to help reduce households’ soaring energy bills.

U.S. mortgage rates hit a 14-year high. And they’re heading in one direction: up. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen to 5.89%, a near doubling from a year ago.

“We will rid ourselves from our current dependence on fossil fuels and the whims of autocrats like Putin.” — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on the floor of Ford Motor’s electric vehicle factory in Dearborn, Mich., talking up the geopolitics of EVs while on a tour stop as midterm campaign season picks up steam. The WSJ had a biting commentary on Yellen’s address. Details below.

Inflation in China unexpectedly retreated in August, a fresh sign of trouble as new Covid lockdowns in large cities again imperil growth. Details in China section.

U.S. inflation watch: Premiums for many Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans are set to rise sharply next year. Consumers probably won’t feel much impact because of enhanced federal subsidies, but small employers are likely to face the brunt of higher rates because they don’t get similar government help, according to health-insurance specialists.

Ukraine pushed east in a rapid thrust aimed at cutting Russian supply routes. Ukrainian forces have advanced almost 31 miles in the northeastern Kharkiv region over the past three days, putting them close to within striking distance of Kupyansk. Russia’s military hasn’t commented on the Ukrainian offensive, but Russian war bloggers close to the Russian military have said Ukrainian forces are making gains toward Kupyansk, a critical road hub for the resupply and movement of Russian occupation forces. More in Russia/Ukraine section.

Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine grain export deal next week. The Kremlin said on Friday President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan will discuss implementation of a deal on Ukrainian grain exports when they meet in Uzbekistan next week. More on this and other grain export-related developments in Russia/Ukraine section.

Ag groups plea for Congress to prevent ‘devastating’ rail strike. More than 30 leading agricultural groups on Thursday urged lawmakers to avert a rail strike that would halt the transport of food and potentially cripple the U.S. economy. Around 115,000 rail workers could strike as soon as Sept. 16 if they cannot reach a contract agreement with railroads. The administration has dispatched Labor Secretary Marty Walsh to participate in the discussions. Details in Market section.

India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, levied a tax on some exports to secure domestic supplies, a move that could further rattle global food markets and worsen the hunger crisis.

The Renewable Fuels Assn. quickly responded to a Reuters article about “dirty ethanol.” We have details on the kerfuffle below.

There’s a new indicator that forecasters are using to predict how much rain inland farms like the U.S. Corn Belt will get: Salt in oceans.

On the farm policy front we report that Congress is very likely to extend the mandatory livestock price reporting program, but odds are iffy regarding livestock marketing reform. We also again note that while the White House via its supplemental spending requests wants $1.5 billion for 2002 ag-related crop and livestock disasters, farm-state lawmakers will eventually add billions to the aid package, but it could take until a later omnibus spending measure to be approved. Agri-Talk this week asked Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) about both topics and he had some revealing responses. See the Policy section for details.

USDA reopens comment period on poultry growing tournament systems. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has briefly reopened the public comment period on its advanced notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) covering poultry growing tournament systems that was published June 8. The proposed rule had a comment deadline of Sept. 6, but AMS is reopening the comment period through Sept. 26. Details in Livestock section.

Cereal-ously? Kellogg’s wants you to add water to its new cereal. The company’s new “Instabowls” look like traditional single-serve bowls — little tubs of cereal, designed to be eaten dry or with milk. But the Instabowls also contain milk powder. When you add cold water and stir, the milk rehydrates and voila: instant milk and cereal.

Britons awoke to the first day of national mourning following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, while tributes poured in from foreign leaders. The queen died on Thursday, aged 96, at Balmoral Castle in Scotland. Britain’s oldest and longest-reigning monarch acceded to the throne in 1952 (crowned on June 2, 1953) and led Britain, and the Commonwealth, through a period of intense change. President Biden called her a monarch who “defined an era” and ordered American flags flown at half-staff. Prince Philip, her husband of 73 years, died in April 2021. Her funeral is likely to take place on September 19. Biden plans to attend. King Charles III is expected to address the country on Friday evening, having met with Liz Truss, the new prime minister, whom his mother appointed just three days ago. Charlies is the oldest person to accede to the throne in British history.

Election Day 2022 is 60 days away. Election Day 2024 is 788 days away.

Equities today: In global trading today, major Asian stock indexes rose, Europe was up at midday. The U.S. Dow opened 100 points higher and is currently just over 250 points higher. U.S. equities are heading towards a possible winning week after three straight losing ones. Investors will be closely watching the consumer price index report for August, scheduled to be released next week on Sept. 13. The report, which is a popular measure of inflation, is one of the final pieces of data the Fed will see before its Sept. 20-21 meeting. FactSet’s consensus estimate for the August report is that CPI will fall 0.1% from the previous month and be up 8.1% on the year. In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong +2.7%. China +0.8%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.7%. Paris +1.7%. Frankfurt +1.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The three major indices closed higher Thursday, even after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again said the central bank was laser-focused on curbing inflation. “I can assure you that my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done,” Powell told an audience Thursday at the Cato Institute. The Dow rose 193.24 points, 0.61%, at 31,774.52. The Nasdaq moved up 70.23 points, 0.60%, at 11,862.13. The S&P 500 gained 26.31 points, 0.66%, at 4,006.18.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn fell 2 1/2 cents to $6.68 1/2, slightly above the middle of the day’s range.
• Soy complex: November soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $13.86, after earlier falling to a five-week low at $13.73. October soymeal fell $5.90 to $409.10. October soyoil rose 136 points to 65.04 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 15 1/4 cents to $8.29. December HRW wheat lost 8 1/2 cents to $8.93. December spring wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $8.98 1/4.
• Cotton: December cotton rose 222 points to 103.84 cents.
• Cattle: October live cattle rose 12.5 cents to $144.375. October feeder cattle advanced 45 cents to $184.40.
• Hogs: October lean hogs rose $1.05 to $92.125, while deferred contracts ended lower. The CME lean hog index is down another $1.22 to $100.26 (as of Sept. 7) and appears poised to fall below $100.00 for the first time since Mid-May.
  

Ag markets today: Corn and wheat futures posted solid corrective gains overnight, while soybeans built on Thursday’s modest gains. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 12 to 14 cents higher and wheat futures were 6 to 10 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around $1.50 higher and the U.S. dollar index is nearly 900 points lower.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. wholesale inventories for July are expected to increase 0.8% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Chicago’s Charles Evans on careers in economics at 10 a.m. ET, governor Christopher Waller on the economic outlook at 12 p.m. ET, and Kansas City’s Esther George on the economic outlook at 12 p.m. ET.
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report, 3:30 p.m. ET.

U.S. mortgage rates hit 5.89%, highest level since 2008. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.89%, topping an earlier high from June, according to a weekly survey by Freddie Mac released Thursday. This time last year, rates were below 3%. And mortgage rates look set to continue rising.

IMF report: U.S. may need 7.5% unemployment to curb inflation. Unemployment may need to reach as high as 7.5%, double its current level, to end the nation’s high inflation, according to a new study from the IMF. That would entail 6 million job losses, but the research found that only under “quite optimistic assumptions” about the behavior of the job market and inflation would the Fed be able to tame inflation with a smaller blow to employment.

Yellen touts the Biden economy, but the WSJ has another opinion. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen seized an opportunity at a Ford plant in Michigan to tout the Biden administration’s economic track record as better than people might think. The biggest thing weighing on the president’s approval ratings is voters’ low opinion of how he’s handled the economy, particularly as inflation surged. But as gas prices have gone down, Biden’s ratings have started to tick back up, and the administration is keen to promote some wins ahead of the midterms. “Taken together, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act authorized among the most significant investments our country has ever made,” Yellen said Thursday. “I believe firmly, they will help us achieve stable sustainable growth, and they’ll move us toward a fairer and more resilient economy.”

A Wall Street Journal editorial (link) begs to differ. In a commentary item titled “Janet Yellen’s Fantasy Economy,” the WSJ writes: “Yellen is a distinguished economist, but her tenure as Treasury Secretary hasn’t enhanced her reputation. Her lack of influence with President Biden has meant she couldn’t stop bad policy (student-loan cancellation), and now the White House is rolling her out in election season to portray the U.S. economy as a Valhalla of growth, fairness and optimism. It’s not believable even if you drive a Tesla and live in Montecito.” The commentary then cites some facts and figures: “She fails to mention that the U.S. economy contracted by about 1% of GDP in the first six months of this year, even as real wages were falling. Real average hourly earnings declined 3% over the 12 months through July, and average weekly earnings by 3.6%. They’ve fallen 4.2% since Mr. Biden took office. This has made inequality worse.” It then concludes: “Politics has its embarrassing demands, especially in an election year. But it takes a special kind of brass to describe the stagflation of the Biden era as an economic success. Voters will have to ignore what they see each day to believe it.”

Inflation watch: Premiums for many Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans are set to rise sharply next year, a sign of how rising labor costs and other expenses are starting to ripple through the healthcare economy. Insurers on the ACA marketplaces are proposing median monthly premium increases of 10%, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation review of proposals made by 72 insurers in 13 states. Some insurers are seeking rate increases as high as 20%.

The U.K. government said it would cap household energy prices over the next two years, a plan aimed at staving off a deep recession and bringing down inflation, but one that could add to growing worries about the British government’s financial health. The package, which economists say is likely to be worth more than $120 billion, marks one of the largest U.K. state interventions in peacetime and underscores how the war in Ukraine is now fundamentally reshaping energy markets across the West.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was sharply lower on a big corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.260%. Crude has moved higher, with U.S. crude around $85 per barrel and Brent around $90.70 per barrel. Gold and silver are registering hefty gains, with gold around $1,731 per troy ounce and silver around $18.55 per troy ounce.

• Shipping costs plunge. $4,782 is the average price per 20-foot equivalent unit for container transport from Shanghai to Los Angeles last week, down 14% from the week before and off 57% since Jan. 20, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants.

• Ag groups plea for Congress to prevent ‘devastating’ rail strike. More than 30 leading agricultural groups on Thursday urged lawmakers to avert a rail strike that would halt the transport of food and potentially cripple the U.S. economy. Around 115,000 rail workers could strike as soon as Sept. 16 if they cannot reach a contract agreement with railroads. In a letter (link) to the top lawmakers on transportation committees, agricultural groups warned that farmers rely on freight rail to transport their goods and that any kind of stoppage would likely lead to the loss of food supplies, driving up prices and exacerbating the risk of famine around the globe. “A complete stoppage of the rail system would lead to shutdowns or slowdowns of rail-dependent facilities resulting in devastating consequences to our national and global food security,” the groups, including the American Farm Bureau Federation and National Grain and Feed Association, told lawmakers. “A freight rail stoppage would drastically make inflation worse, especially for those who can least afford it,” they added.

In the event of a lockout, lawmakers could vote to enact the White House-appointed panel’s recommendations, something railroads are pushing for, or appoint arbitrators to fast-track a new deal, among a range of other options.

• India, the world’s biggest exporter of rice, restricted its international sale to safeguard domestic supply. From Friday a 20% duty will be applied to most grades (though not basmati). Shipments of “broken rice,” eaten in some parts of Africa but otherwise feedstock, were banned outright. The tax will squeeze global food prices, already inflated by the war in Ukraine, and drive demand towards Thailand and Vietnam. Exporters will ask the government to waive taxes on about 2 million tons of rice that have been contracted but not yet shipped, he added. Link for details via Bloomberg.

• Argentina’s soy exporters will be able to sell dollars from their shipments at a special exchange rate as the country tries to shore up its reserves. Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa previously announced a special exchange rate for the country’s soy producers in a bid to incentivize exports, shore up central bank reserves and avoid a currency devaluation. Exporters of soy will be able to sell dollars from their shipments abroad at a rate of 200 pesos per dollar, more lucrative than the official rate of 139 per dollar, not including taxes. The minister said the exchange rate rules would return to normal in October. Argentina’s government charges a 33% tax on soy exports, making it a major source of tax revenue and dollars for reserves. Exporters also must exchange the dollars from exports into pesos — until now at the official rate.

• Argentina to raise financing costs for hoarding farmers. Argentine soy farmers who hold onto stocks of more than 5% of their production will face financing costs above the normal benchmark rate, the country’s central bank said on Thursday, part of a wider push to encourage sales. The central bank said soy farmers over a certain size who hoarded their stock would face a minimum financing rate “equivalent to 120% of the latest Monetary Policy rate.” Argentina’s benchmark interest rate stands at 69.5%. The minimum rate would start at 83.4% under the new policy, which aims “to make credit more expensive so that it is more convenient to sell (soybeans) than to take credit,” a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. As noted, on Sunday, Argentina boosted the soy foreign exchange rate for farmers to encourage more sales.

• U.S. nitrogen prices have risen dramatically after aggressive summer fill programs, fueled by a rash of nitrogen-plant outages in Europe, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Link for more details.

• USDA extends entry period for sugar under FY 2022 TRQ. USDA is extending the entry period for the fiscal year (FY) 2022 raw cane sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ). USDA said in a notice (link) that all sugar entering the U.S. under the FY 2022 raw cane sugar TRQ would be permitted through Dec. 31, 2022, two months later than previously announced, saying the action was needed based on a “determination that additional supplies of raw cane sugar are required in the U.S. market.”

• Ag trade: Taiwan passed on an international tender to purchase 65,000 MT of corn.

• Edison International warned that its southern California utility may need to shut off power to 50,000 homes and businesses to prevent wildfires, even as a record-breaking heat wave threatens the state with rolling blackouts.

• Salt in oceans may be the next big predictor of rains for crops. Brinier water on the surface of the ocean can predict heavier rainfall that will fall far from the coasts, according to Boston-based Salient Predictions (link). The company, whose clients include seed and crop chemical giant BASF SE, is using the technique to forecast precipitation totals and help farmers at a time when drought is hurting food supplies. “Evaporation from the ocean is the main source of all rainfall, and if some patch of ocean gets saltier than normal, it’s because more water has evaporated,” Ray Schmitt, an oceanographer and co-founder of Salient Predictions, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “It’s bound to rain more somewhere else.” Salient is marketing a new suite of weather metrics including ocean salinity to larger agricultural businesses.

More info: If salt content in the Atlantic Ocean along the U.S. East Coast is low, it could be a dry season in the top U.S. corn-growing state of Iowa, and farmers there may decide to plant less or use a more drought-tolerant seed. For China’s Yangtze River Valley, a key farming region in the world’s most populous country, salinity levels in the South China Sea have been correlated with flooding and current drought conditions.

• NWS weather: Tropical Storm Kay to bring excessive rainfall and flash flooding to portions of Southern California and the Desert Southwest this weekend... ...Dangerous heat begins to wane in central California as Northwest warms up... ...Cold air surges through Rockies and Plains behind powerful cold front... ...Heavy rainfall likely from Gulf Coast to Mid-Atlantic.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Solidly firmer price tone overnight
• Argentina to raise financing costs for hoarding farmers (details above)
• Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine grain export deal next week (details below)
• China’s new bank loans rise less than expected
• China will ensure ‘reasonable’ pork, hog prices (details in China section)
• Disappointing start for cash cattle
• Cash hog index continues steady decline

— Summary: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, celebrated the counter-offensive launched by his country’s armed forces, saying that 1,000 square kilometers (around 247,000 acres) of Ukrainian territory and “dozens of settlements” had been reclaimed from Russian forces since September 1. Meanwhile U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who made a surprise visit to Kyiv, promised a further $2.2 billion in military financing for Ukraine and other countries deemed at risk of Russian aggression. The Pentagon has sent Ukraine its most accurate artillery shell, the GPS-guided Excalibur, according to budget documents that confirm the previously unannounced addition to the arsenal assembled to combat the Russian invasion.

• Sizing up Putin and his renewed threat on exports of Ukrainian grain. A Wall Street Journal editorial (link) captures Putin’s dilemma on this topic: “Putin struck the deal to allow Ukrainian exports this summer lest Russia be blamed for famine around the world. He accused the West on Wednesday of ‘blatant deception’ in somehow taking advantage of the deal at the expense of providing food to the developing world. But Mr. Putin knows the food market is global and one of the goals of the export deal was to lower food prices by increasing supply. That helps consumers in poor countries too. If Mr. Putin does block Ukraine’s grain exports, he’ll be responsible for the suffering. The U.S. could also warn Mr. Putin that if he does block Ukraine’s grain, a coalition of the willing would consider naval escorts for Ukrainian grain ships. A similar plan worked to escort oil from the Persian Gulf in the 1980s against threats from Iran. With his military struggling with manpower and supplies, Mr. Putin can’t be eager to challenge Western ships engaged in a peaceful escort mission.”

  Perspective: While Putin’s barb heightened the fragility of the grain export deal that was set for renewal after 120 days, it isn’t backed up by the numbers. A significant chunk of the more than 2 million tons of grains shipped under the agreement has headed to developing countries, shipping data show.
  

• Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine grain export deal next week. The Kremlin said on Friday President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan will discuss implementation of a deal on Ukrainian grain exports when they meet in Uzbekistan next week. Putin earlier this week criticized the deal and said it may need to be reworked. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday the deal is being fulfilled “badly” and its extension will depend on how it is implemented, Russia state-owned RIA news agency reported.
• Signs surface that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has been devastating to the global food security, is hurting its own farm sector. Some of Russia’s top grain exporters are losing their market share and shipments have been down this season. Sanctions haven’t targeted trade in food and fertilizers, but some buyers, insurers and shippers are wary of doing business with Russian firms. Bloomberg notes there are questions over Russia’s ability to sustain agricultural production amid sanctions on critical imports of farm inputs. According to a confidential internal report obtained by Bloomberg News, fully 99% of poultry production and 30% of Holstein dairy cattle output depends on imports, while seeds for staples like sugar beets and potatoes are mostly brought in from outside the country, as are fish feeds and amino acids. Dependence on key inputs in the farm sector could force Russians to reduce their food consumption as supplies dwindle.
• Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman is offering to transfer $1 billion into a Ukrainian bank he co-founded, hoping to persuade the U.K. to lift sanctions against him.

— Update on new ag disaster aid spending. As we previously reported, USDA would get $1.5 billion for crop & livestock disasters in 2022 as part of White House supplemental spending requests that could be part of a stopgap spending bill (Continuing Resolution/CR) to keep the gov’t funded into fiscal year 2023, which begins Oct. 1. Congress will likely add billions, but this may take until the omnibus spending bill later this year, perhaps in a post-election, lame-duck session of Congress. Aid will likely be part of USDA’s Emergency Relief Program (ERP). AgriTalk’s Chip Flory earlier this week asked Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) about this topic. “That $1.5 billion for USDA will end up bigger, won’t it?” AgriTalk asked. Grassley paused then said, “Chip... that’s what crop insurance is for.” He emphasized the need to maintain and improve crop insurance in the next farm bill negotiations.

Extension for livestock mandatory price reporting is seen as likely congressional action yet this year. In the iffy category: reforms in cattle marketing — a pair of bills that came out of the Senate Ag Committee in June is still being pushed by Grassley and others, but some wonder if there are 60 votes to pass the full Senate. Agri-Talk asked Grassley about the Cattle Market Price Discovery and Transparency Act... he sounded a bit beaten on this when he answered. He said he is going to leave it to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) to get the bill to a vote. “He’s a Democrat and he’s tough and wants this done.”

Link to Agri-Talk chat with Sen. Grassley.

— Inflation in China unexpectedly retreated in August, a new sign of trouble in the world’s second-largest economy as new lockdowns in large cities again imperil growth. Consumer prices rose 2.5% in August compared with a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Friday, down from July’s 2.7%. Economists had expected 2.8%. China’s economy is struggling under the weight of a real-estate slump and fading demand for its exports. More recently, drought has threatened crops and hit power supplies in key industrial areas, while Covid-19 flare-ups have led authorities to impose sweeping new restrictions on businesses and daily life.

— China will purchase 19% less beef from world markets next year as its economy struggles under strict Covid-19 prevention measures, USDA said. That’s likely to hit hard meatpackers in Brazil, the top beef supplier to China. Beef markets have been in turmoil since the pandemic disrupted supply chains and sent prices soaring.

— China will ensure ‘reasonable’ pork, hog prices. China’s state planner said the country’s supply of hogs was sufficient and would increase toward the end of the year, guaranteeing pork prices would stay in a “reasonable” range. The National Development and Reform Commission also said it would take measures to ensure that hog prices remained reasonable, after they surged in recent months.

— U.K. PM Truss announces end of fracking ban. U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a lifting of Britain’s fracking moratorium, something several Conservative lawmakers had pressed her predecessor to do to make the U.K. more independent in its energy supplies. The announcement, which she made before Parliament Thursday, was part of Truss’s larger plan to counter the energy crisis and to ease the pain on consumers by placing an annual cap on household energy bills. Truss said it is “vital we take steps to increase our domestic energy supply.” With the end of the moratorium, gas could begin flowing in as soon as six months where localities support it, she also said.

— Ethanol proponents quickly reacted to charges of “dirty ethanol.” The nation’s ethanol plants produce more than twice the climate-damaging pollution, per gallon of fuel production capacity, than the nation’s oil refineries, according to a Reuters analysis of federal data (link).

The Renewable Fuels Assn. quickly responded:

— Jeep going electric with four new models. From military staple to the green revolution, Jeep announced Thursday that it will be releasing four all-electric SUVs by 2025 as part of its “Freedom is Electric” campaign. The move comes as Netherlands-based Stellantis, which produces Jeep, Fiat and other vehicles, has committed to 100% of its European sales and 50% of U.S. sales to be electric by 2030. The new vehicles will be fully released by 2025.

How did Jeep get its name? The most widely held theory is that the military designation GP (for Government Purposes or General Purpose) was slurred into the word Jeep in the same way that the contemporary HMMWV (for High-Mobility Multi-purpose Wheeled Vehicle) has become known as the Humvee.

— Rivian Automotive and Mercedes-Benz plan to work together to establish a factory to build commercial electric delivery vans. The U.S. startup and the iconic German brand are setting up a joint venture to develop and operate a plant in Europe, the Wall Street Journal reports (link), as they look to share the costs and spread out the risks while ramping up production for the still-young technology. The companies say they hope to design electric vans that can be produced efficiently on common assembly lines at the plant using shared suppliers. They plan to produce two separate large vans, one based on Mercedes’ electric-vehicle platform and the other based on the Rivian Light Van platform. The stakes are high for Rivian. The Michigan-based company has started producing vehicles for Amazon but faces growing competition in a package-delivery market that looks primed for electric vans.

— Tesla weighs lithium refinery in Texas. Electric vehicle giant Tesla is mulling whether to open a lithium-refining facility in Texas, months after CEO Elon Musk said the company may have to refine its own lithium as prices for the resource have soared. The company told Texas authorities that such a plant would be “the first of its kind in North America.” Tesla also wants some tax breaks from Texas. “In the case of the investment on this proposed project in Texas, the decision will be based on a number of commercial and financial considerations, including the ability to obtain relief regarding local property taxes,” the company told the state.

— Cereal killer? Kellogg’s tries milk-free flakes. In what some say could be the most ingenious food innovation in years (or the worst idea since New Coke), Kellogg’s introduced a new breakfast product Thursday called an “Instabowl,” which looks like a single-serve cereal bowl, but it also contains milk powder. Instead of fresh milk, water is added and stirred as it rehydrates into instant milk and cereal just like the real thing —allegedly — but the proof is in the Froot Loops.

— Retailers are adding more security guards to stores — and a lot of them are carrying guns. Faced with rising theft and violence — and pressure from scared employees — grocery stores and other retailers are bulking up on armed security. Since July 2021, there’s been a 108% increase in demand for armed guards at grocery stores. Link to details via Forbes.

— Uber taps Nuro’s street-legal robots for food deliveries. Nuro, a Softbank-backed developer of street-legal autonomous, electric delivery vehicles, has struck a long-term partnership with Uber to use its toaster-shaped micro-vans to haul food orders, groceries and other goods to customers in Silicon Valley and Houston using the Uber Eats service starting this year.

— USDA reopens comment period on poultry growing tournament systems. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has briefly reopened the public comment period on its advanced notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) covering poultry growing tournament systems that was published June 8. The proposed rule had a comment deadline of Sept. 6, but AMS is reopening the comment period through Sept. 26, according to a notice in the Federal Register (link). The revision came after AMS received requests from industry organizations for additional time to comment on the plan “citing the breadth and complexity of the questions and concepts presented for comment.”

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 607,515,986 with 6,510,838 deaths
• U.S. case count is at 95,118,524 with 1,049,749 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 610,686,563 doses administered, 224,367,691 have been fully vaccinated, or 68.10% of the U.S. population.

— Tuesday marks the end of primary season as three states close out their nomination contests. New Hampshire will choose Republican nominees challenging Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and the state’s two House members, while a Democratic primary in Rhode Island will set up a competitive November election for an open seat in the western half of the state. A Democratic-backed independent bid in Utah may further complicate GOP efforts to retake the Senate.

— King Charles III to address a world mourning queen’s death. King Charles III will address his new subjects today, as Britain was plunged into mourning by the death of Queen Elizabeth II, ending a history making 70-year reign. King Charles, 73, became monarch immediately after the death of his mother at her Scottish retreat on Thursday, sparking tributes at home and abroad. The new king is due to return to London from Balmoral, where the 96-year-old queen died “peacefully” after a year-long period of ill health and decline. (Charles I was beheaded in 1649. Charles II, his son, fled to France but was restored to the throne in 1660.)

— DOJ appeals decision to order special master to review evidence seized in Mar-a-Lago search. The Justice Department filed a notice with U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, the Trump-appointee who ordered the special master, announcing its intent to appeal her decision.

— North Korea passed a law enshrining its right to have nuclear weapons and to protect itself “automatically” by using them in pre-emptive strikes. Kim Jong Un, the country’s leader, said that the law means the country will never denuclearize. International observers suspect that North Korea is preparing to resume nuclear testing, for the first time since 2017. Sanctions have failed to discourage it.

— Cotton AWP drops back under $1 per pound. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton fell to 94.92 cents per pound, effective today (Sept. 9), down from 104.86 cents per pound the prior week, ending three weeks where the AWP was at $1 per pound or more. Meanwhile, USDA said that Special Import Quota #221 would be established Sept. 15 to allow the importation of 55,633 bales of upland cotton, applying to supplies purchased not later than Dec. 13 and entered into the U.S. no later than March 13.

— American gamblers are ready for some football. A record 46.6 million Americans — or about 18% of the country’s betting age population — plan to wager on National Football League games this season, which opened last night when the Buffalo Bills routed the Los Angeles Rams. With 31 states now allowing sports wagering, up from 19 in 2020, “we’re seeing significant migration of American sports bettors to the legal market,” says Casey Clark, senior vice president at the American Gaming Association.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split Ticket |