Fed Chair Powell speaks Friday at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Washington Focus
The House will return Sept. 14 and Senate Sept. 6 from their long summer recess.
On the ag front, the attention is on this week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
The financial sector will focus on the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City as it hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Thursday through Saturday, bringing together bankers, economists, policy experts and others to Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. ET on Friday, a speech that will be closely followed for any signals on future rate hikes or quantitative easing and for his outlook on the country’s overall economic strength going into the Fed’s September meeting.
A federal appeals court granted a temporary stay on an order requiring Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to testify before a Fulton County, Georgia, special grand jury as part of an inquiry into efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state. The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit on Sunday will send the case back to district court in Georgia to decide whether Graham is entitled to a “partial quashal or modification of subpoena” based on protections granted through the speech or debate clause of the Constitution. Graham was scheduled to appear before the grand jury on Tuesday. In denying the bid by Graham to throw out the subpoena, U.S. District Judge Leigh Martin May said on Monday that the senator could still be questioned even if the speech and debate clause of the Constitution for lawmakers protected him.
Tuesday is primary day in Florida and New York, and there will be primary runoffs in Oklahoma.
Education Secretary Miguel Cardona on Sunday said the Biden administration is due to announce a decision on whether to extend a pause on federal student loan debt in the next week, butting up to an Aug. 31 deadline when the current moratorium on loan payments expires.
Some other events on tap this week:
Monday, August 22
· China issues. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Getting China Wrong.”
· Airline passenger issues. Office of the Transportation Secretary virtual meeting of the Aviation Consumer Protection Advisory Committee to discuss airline ticket refunds and related consumer protection matters.
· Taiwan military issues. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (virtual discussion on “The Military Dimensions of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.”
· Indo-Pacific issues. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on “Asia’s New Leaders and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
· Alaska minerals. Wilson Center and the University of Alaska conference on “Alaska’s Minerals: A Strategic National Imperative.” Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) deliver remarks on “mineral development in Alaska as a strategic national imperative.” Conference runs through Tuesday.
Tuesday, August 23
· Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari scheduled to speak.
· U.S./China. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China.”
· U.S./Chile cooperation. State Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative meeting of the United States/Chile Environmental Affairs Council and Joint Commission for Environmental Cooperation.
· U.S. exit from Afghanistan. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “One Year Later: Reflecting on America’s Departure from Afghanistan.”
· GOP party trajectory. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “Still Trump’s Party? The Trajectory of the GOP ahead of the Midterms.”
· Alaskan minerals. Final day of the Wilson Center and the University of Alaska conference on “Alaska’s Minerals: A Strategic National Imperative,” with Governor Mike Dunleavy (R-Alaska) delivering remarks on “Alaska’s Mineral Opportunities.”
Wednesday, August 24
· White House conference on hunger. White House Office of Public Engagement holds its biweekly stakeholder call on the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health.
· U.S./Mexico supply chains. Wilson Center and Texas A&M International University (TAMIU) discussion on “U.S./Mexico Supply Chain Resiliency.”
· Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual discussion on “Ripples of War: Six Months Since Russia’s Invasion into Ukraine.”
· Financial reports. Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board holds a virtual meeting covering areas include Accounting and Reporting of Government Land; Climate-Related Financial Reporting.
· Remote sensing technology. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration virtual meeting of the Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing to discuss commercial satellite imaging regulations from international regulators, and from U.S. gov’t leadership on their vision for the development of the remote sensing industry.
· U.S./Japan relations. National Defense Industrial Association discussion on issues including Japan’s Defense Programs and Defense Architecture, significance of the Japan/U.S. security relationship and the important role of U.S. and Japanese industrial cooperation in that relationship.
Thursday, August 25
· President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Democratic National Committee rally highlighting “the choice voters have in the midterms.”
· NASA research and agriculture. National Aeronautics and Space Administration news teleconference on “the agency’s tools, resources, and science research available to the agriculture community.”
· Clean energy and the U.S. economy. Urban Institute and Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center virtual discussion on “The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for Today’s Economy,” focusing on “the clean energy incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act and how the new law will help the U.S. meets its emissions reduction target.”
· Climate issues. Government Executive Media Group 2022 Climate Summit with Climate leaders delivering keynote remarks on “the State of Climate Change and Policy.”
· Environmental enforcement. House Oversight and Reform Environment Subcommittee field hearing on “Effective Environmental Enforcement: Tools and Strategies to Protect Vulnerable Communities.”
· Immigration and courts. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on “The Expanding Mandate: Immigration and the Courts.”
· Future of the Republican party. Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute discussion on “critical questions facing the future of the Republican Party,” as part of the “A Time for Choosing” series.
Key Economic Reports for the Week
Markets’ focus will be on Jackson Hole and the tone from Federal Reserve members at their annual symposium. Economic reports this week see updates on durable goods orders, home prices, PMI readings and the closely watched PCE price gauge.
Monday, Aug. 22
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a negative 0.14 reading, slightly better than in June.
Tuesday, Aug. 23
- Census Bureau reports new residential sales data for July. Economists forecast that sales of new single-family homes were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 577,500, 12,500 less than in June. New-home sales are down more than 40% from the summer of 2020.
- S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for August. Expectations are for the Manufacturing PMI to be 52, while the Services PMI is seen coming in at 50. This compares with readings of 52.2 and 47.3, respectively, in July. That was the first reading below 50 for the Services PMI in more than two years, indicating contraction in that sector.
Wednesday, Aug. 24
- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for July. The consensus call is for new orders for durable manufactured goods to increase 0.5% month over month to $274 billion.
Thursday, Aug. 25
- Jobless Claims
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the three-day 2022 Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy” is the theme for this year’s confab.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports its second estimate of gross-domestic-product growth. The preliminary estimate was that GDP contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. This marked two consecutive quarters of declines, meeting one definition of a recession.
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Money Supply
Friday, Aug. 26
- BEA reports personal income and spending for July. Income is expected to increase 0.6% month over month, matching June’s gain. Spending is seen rising 0.5%, compared with 1.1% previously. Consensus estimate is for the core personal-consumption expenditures
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole.
Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events
Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour is the key ag market event this week. Thursday brings another Food Price Outlook update from USDA.
Monday, Aug. 22
Ag reports and events:
- Export Inspections
- Crop Progress
- Chickens and Eggs
- Cold Storage
- Milk Production
- MARS monthly EU crop conditions report
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Tuesday, Aug. 23
Energy reports and events:
- API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
Wednesday, Aug. 24
Ag reports and events:
- Broiler Hatchery
- Poultry Slaughter
- U.S. and Canadian Cattle
- U.S. and Canadian Hogs
- Brazil’s Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
Energy reports and events:
- EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
- U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
- Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
Thursday, Aug. 25
Ag reports and events:
- Weekly Export Sales
- Food Price Outlook
- Livestock Slaughter
- Malaysia’s Aug. 1-25 palm oil export data
Energy reports and events:
- EIA natural gas storage change
- Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
- Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
Friday, Aug. 26
Ag reports and events:
- CFTC Commitments of Traders report
- Peanut Prices
- Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set
- Vegetable and Pulses Yearbook
- Cash Rents, County
- Mushrooms
- Peanut Stocks and Processing
- FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
Energy reports and events:
- Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts