President Biden to Give State of the Union Address Feb. 7

Producer Price Index Wednesday | Several Federal Reserve speakers this week

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January 17, 2023 05:42 AM

Producer Price Index Wednesday | Several Federal Reserve speakers this week

Washington Focus

The House and Senate out of Washington for the week of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

House Ag Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) on Friday held a farm bill listening session in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, joined by eight other House members. Thompson said that the House will move on a new farm bill before the Senate. He listed the general key farm bill topics, including a need for agricultural research.

The House Republican Steering Committee selected the Republican members who will serve on House Ag panel for the 118th Congress.

Returning Members

Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (PA-15), Chairman

Rep. Austin Scott (GA-08)

Rep. Rick Crawford (AR-01)

Rep. Scott DesJarlais (TN-04)

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (CA-01)

Rep. David Rouzer (NC-07)

Rep. Trent Kelly (MS-01)

Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02)

Rep. Dusty Johnson (SD-AL)

Rep. Jim Baird (IN-04)

Rep. Tracey Mann (KS-01)

Rep. Mary Miller (IL-15)

Rep. Barry Moore (AL-02)

Rep. Kat Cammack (FL-03)

Rep. Brad Finstad (MN-01)

New Members

Rep. Frank Lucas (OK-03)

Rep. John Rose (TN-06)

Rep. Ronny Jackson (TX-13)

Rep. Mark Alford (MO-04)

Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)

Rep. Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)

Rep. John Duarte (CA-13)

Rep. Nick Langworthy (NY-23)

Rep. Max Miller (OH-07)

Rep. Marc Molinaro (NY-19)

Rep. Zach Nunn (IA-03)

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

Note: The House Steering Committee is responsible for recommending Members to serve on standing Committees in the House of Representatives. The recommendations are subject to approval by the House Republican Conference.

Looking ahead, President Joe Biden on Feb. 7 will give his State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress. The ag sector will listen closely to see if he lists work on a new farm bill as one of the bipartisan measures he sees between Democrats and Republicans.

Tuesday, January 17

· President Joe Biden holds a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands at the White House.

· Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak

· EPA agriculture meeting. Environmental Protection Agency holds a meeting of the Farm, Ranch, and Rural Communities Advisory Committee (FRRCC) (runs through Wednesday).

· Fed inflation target. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a virtual event on “Should the Federal Reserve Raise Its Inflation Rate Target?”

· Ukraine government. The George Washington University (GWU) Elliott School of International Affairs holds a discussion on “What Makes Ukraine Resilient in the Asymmetric War? A Study of Local Governments’ Emergency Responses.”

· U.K. foreign policy priorities. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a discussion with U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on “key foreign policy priorities for the United Kingdom.”

· Xi Jinping and China. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) holds a virtual discussion on “Understanding Xi’s China.”

· CDC. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security holds a discussion on a new report, “Building the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) the Country Needs.”

· LNG export regs. The University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute holds a virtual discussion on “Are Small-Scale LNG (liquid natural gas) Export Facilities Under-regulated in the U.S.?”

· Inflation. The R Street Institute holds a webinar on “Economic and Social Inflation: What You Need to Know for Your Agency and Your Clients.”

· Financial institution regs. The Brookings Institution holds an event on “Too big to manage?” focusing on financial institutions and regulation.

· Mayors’ meeting. The U.S. Conference of Mayors holds its 91st Winter Meeting; runs through Friday.

· Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte on “Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the future of the transatlantic alliance and how to maintain unity in the face of mounting global challenges.”

Wednesday, January 18

· Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan scheduled to speak.

· EPA agriculture meeting. Final day of the Environmental Protection Agency meeting of the Farm, Ranch, and Rural Communities Advisory Committee (FRRCC).

· US recession potential. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a virtual event on “Soft Economic Landing or Financial Market Crisis?”

· Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Wilson Center (WWC) Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies holds a discussion on “Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers and Moscow’s Struggle for Ukraine.”

· Growth and climate issues. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “Growth for Good: Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity from Climate Catastrophe.”

· Mayors’ meeting. The U.S. Conference of Mayors holds its 91st Winter Meeting; runs through Friday.

· Global energy. The Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on “Straight Talk from an Insider on Global Energy, Climate, and the Shale Revolution.”

· State, local governments and supply chains. The Government Executive Media Group holds a virtual discussion on “Hidden Threat: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities,” focusing on state and local governments.

· Land and ocean conservation. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion on “Land and Ocean Conservation.”

· Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Institute of World Politics (IWP) holds a seminar on “Foreign Leaders Analysis: A Profile of Xi Jinping,” China’s president.

Thursday, January 19

· Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard scheduled to speak on the Economic Outlook at the University of Chicago; Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.

· CODEX meeting. U.S. Codex Office holds a virtual meeting of the Codex Committee on Residues of Veterinary Drugs in Foods to discuss the 26th Session of the Codex Committee on Residues of Veterinary Drugs in Foods (CCRVDF) of the Codex Alimentarius Commission.

· Republican majority. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) on “the new GOP majority and leadership.”

· Sanctions and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Hudson Institute holds a virtual discussion on “Task Force KleptoCapture,” an interagency law enforcement initiative, created in March 2022 to enforce sanctions against Kremlin-linked Russian elites and their professional facilitators in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

· Mayors’ meeting. The U.S. Conference of Mayors holds its 91st Winter Meeting; runs through Friday.

· Ex-Im meeting. Export-import Bank holds a meeting by teleconference of the Board of Directors.

· North Korea issues. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on a new report, “North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence.”

· Sanctions and the Russian economy. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “Sanctions and the Russian Economy.”

Friday, January 20

· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller to deliver remarks on the Economic Outlook to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· Economic outlook. The American Bankers Association (ABA) holds a virtual news conference to present the latest consensus economic forecast from top economists at some of North America’s largest banks.

· International economic outlook. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) holds a discussion on “Economic Outlook,” part of the “Series on International Economics.”

· Middle East energy issues. The Middle East Policy Council holds its 111th Capitol Hill Conference online with the theme “Energy Transition and the Future of Energy in the Middle East.”

· Mayors’ meeting. Final day of the U.S. Conference of Mayors 91st Winter Meeting.

· Fiscal and monetary policy. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a virtual discussion on “Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates,” focusing on the global financial crisis, the large increase in debt in Japan, and the current US fiscal and monetary policy.

· China overreach. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual book discussion on “Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise.”

Economic Reports for the Week

Focus this week is Wednesday’s Producer Price Index and several appearances by members of the Federal Reserve.

Monday, Jan. 16

Holiday: Markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Tuesday, Jan. 17

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Wednesday, Jan. 18

MBA Mortgage Applications
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Producer Price Index for December. Consensus estimate is for the PPI to rise 6.8% and core PPI to increase 5.4%, a moderation from November.
Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the first of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions through anecdotal evidence gathered by the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.
Census Bureau reports retail sales data for December. Economists forecast retail spending to decline 0.6% month over month, matching the November figure. Excluding autos, sales are seen dropping 0.4% compared to a 0.2% fall previously.
National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for January. The consensus call is for a 31 reading, even with the December figure, which was the lowest since the onset of the pandemic.
Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 25% chance that the central bank will hike its key interest by 10 basis points, to zero from negative 0.1%, the level at which it has remained since early 2016. In December, the BOJ surprised the bond market by raising the cap on 10-year government bond yields. The yen has rallied about 15% against the U.S. dollar in the past three months as the last dovish major central bank is signaling it might finally tighten monetary policy.

Thursday, Jan. 19

Jobless Claims
Census Bureau reports residential construction statistics for December. Housing starts are expected at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million, 77,000 less than in November. The 1.35 million would be the lowest total since June of 2020.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, Jan. 20

National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for December. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million homes sold, about 100,000 less than in November.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

With USDA reports released Friday, focus returns to South American weather and crop developments.

Tuesday, Jan. 17

Ag reports and events:

Export inspections
Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
Oil Crops Outlook
Feed Outlook
Wheat Outlook
Rice Outlook

Energy reports and events:

OPEC monthly oil market report
WTI February options expire

Wednesday, Jan. 18

Ag reports and events:

Broiler Hatchery
Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables

Energy reports and events:

Second batch of China trade data (December)
IEA monthly oil market report
Genscape ARA weekly crude inventor

Thursday, Jan. 19

Ag reports and events:

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
Livestock Slaughter
Pecan Production

Energy reports and events:

EIA Petroleum Status Report
Weekly Ethanol Production
EIA Natural Gas Report
Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data

Friday, Jan. 20

Ag reports and events:

CFTC Commitments of Traders report
Peanut Prices
Export Sales
Food Expenditure Series
Cotton Ginnings
Chickens & Eggs
Cattle on Feed
North American Potatoes
Coffee

Energy reports and events:

Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
Third batch of China trade data (December)
WTI February options expire
ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
Holiday: Azerbaijan, Taiwan, Vietnam

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