Potential Dock Workers’ Strike Would Not Significantly Impact Grain Export Facilities

News/Markets/Policy Updates: Sept. 19, 2024

— A potential dock workers’ strike Oct. 1 (contract ends Sept. 30) on the East Coast and Gulf Coast would not significantly impact grain export facilities. So far, no formal negotiations have been held and none are scheduled. The strike would have limited impact on bulk grain exports, including corn and soybeans. Bulk grain export facilities would not be affected by the strike as these facilities typically operate with different labor arrangements, such as their own employees or different labor unions. The majority of soybean and grain exports from the Gulf or East Coast would not be impacted by the negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). There would be an impact on containerized agricultural exports. While bulk grain exports would be largely unaffected, the strike would impact containerized agricultural exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and other agricultural products exported via containers would be affected. In 2023, container shipments of soybeans through East and Gulf Coast ports totaled around 100 million bushels, compared to nearly 1 billion bushels of bulk soybean exports from the Gulf. Specific containerized soybean exports that could be impacted include: • Norfolk: 1,616,854 metric tons • New York/New Jersey: 372,110 metric tons • Baltimore: 324,500 metric tons • Charleston: 217,892 metric tons • Other ports with smaller volumes Indirect effects on grain producers. While grain export facilities may not be directly impacted, there could be indirect effects on grain producers: The strike would significantly impact exports of chilled or frozen meat, eggs, and other livestock products, which are primarily shipped in containers. Any harm to the U.S. livestock industry would indirectly affect soybean and grain farmers, as these industries are interconnected. East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 44% of U.S. waterborne pork exports and 29% of waterborne beef exports in the first half of this year. New York/New Jersey, Wilmington and Charleston were the largest East/Gulf ports for pork exports and Houston was largest for beef. Of note: One industry contact emailed: “There might be some limited disruptions to bulk grain exports because of sympathy with the strikers or just general disruption at a particular location.” Another contact emailed: “Many of the containers are going to be fulfilled by smaller to mid-size regional cooperatives and privates. Thus, the impacts will be felt more acutely, severely and quickly than in some of the larger commercials and co-ops. Also, my understanding is that around 40% of all ag containers go off east/southeast ports and 60% off west. So, we’re talking a real impact to ag.” What could happen. The Biden administration has decided not to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to intervene in a labor dispute, a law that allows the president to step in during serious labor conflicts when national health or safety is at risk. The Taft-Hartley Act has been invoked 37 times in the past, allowing for an 80-day “cooling off” period, but Biden officials confirmed they are not considering using it in this case. The last time it was invoked was in 2002 by President George W. Bush during a West Coast port lockout. Instead, Biden has previously opted for negotiation strategies, such as sending officials to mediate labor disputes. Retailers are seeking some alternatives. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled a combined 966,231 loaded container imports last month, up more than 27% from a year ago and the highest volume since May 2021. West Coast ports, which lost a big share of import trade during a long stretch of congestion in the Covid pandemic, are winning back cargo. In June and July, West Coast ports handled 61% of imports from Asia, the highest share of that market since October 2021, according to transportation data firm Xeneta. (Ports of LA and Long Beach, Bloomberg ) Of note: The energy industry could also be affected: Gulf Coast ports are crucial for energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). Any disruptions could impact the flow of energy resources. These industries are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on timely shipments, just-in-time inventory systems, and the critical nature of their products. Bottom line: While the potential dock workers’ strike would not directly impact bulk grain export facilities, it could have significant effects on containerized agricultural exports and indirectly affect grain producers through disruptions in the livestock industry. The potential strike would affect 36 ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, from Maine to Texas. Negotiations between the two parties have stalled, with several issues remaining unresolved: wage increases, limits on port automation, and use of automated technology to process trucks without union labor. The ILA has voted unanimously to support a strike if their demands are not met. As of mid-September, the two sides appear to be far apart in negotiations. ILA President Harold Daggett has stated, “The ILA most definitely will hit the streets on October 1st if we don’t get the kind of contract we deserve.” Last-minute agreements are not uncommon in labor negotiations, so the situation could change rapidly in the coming days. — The International Brotherhood of Teamsters declined to endorse a presidential candidate on Wednesday, for the first time since 1996, after releasing internal polling that showed a majority of its members supported former President Donald Trump. The Teamsters, which is one of the largest unions in the country, said a poll of members conducted after last week’s debate between Harris and Trump found 58% backed Trump compared to 31% who supported the vice president. The poll was conducted by Lake Research Partners. — Harris now has narrow lead over Trump in Pa.; Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll finds she picked up considerable ground in Philadelphia. Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a narrow lead, 50.6% vs 46.0%, fueled by increased support among young and nonwhite voters, particularly in Philadelphia, which has historically been crucial to Democratic victories in the state. Harris is performing better than President Biden did in 2020, especially with young and Black voters, and she holds a significant advantage in Philadelphia, where her support has surged. While Harris is viewed favorably by many voters, some consider her “too liberal.” Trump, on the other hand, maintains an edge on key issues like the economy and immigration. Voters see Harris as the winner of the first presidential debate, but the race remains close, with both candidates appealing to different demographic groups and regions of the state. Despite Harris’ gains, there are concerns about her progressive stance among some voters, and her support among young people is considered fragile, as many are still undecided or unsure if they will vote. Trump is viewed more favorably on handling the economy and immigration, which could be pivotal issues in the final stretch of the campaign. In a Washington Post poll, Harris and Trump are locked in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania. She is favored by 48% of both likely voters and registered voters, while Trump is supported by 47% of voters in both categories. — Harris’ campaign media strategy is taking shape. In recent days, Harris has granted sit-downs to local media outlets and fielded questions in unconventional forums to target crucial swing state and minority voters. Her running mate Tim Walz is doing the same through appearances on local TV outlets in Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. — New 2024 Demographic Swingometer lets users explore Harris vs. Trump path to 270 electoral votes. David Wasserman informs that the 2024 Cook Political Report Demographic Swingometer (link) allows users to simulate how shifts in turnout and preferences among key demographic groups could impact the Electoral College outcome for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Users can break down the vote by race, education, age, adjust third-party vote shares, and focus on seven key swing states. Of note: The tool includes a video tutorial (link) and an accompanying story (link) mapping out four potential November scenarios. The interactive invites users to explore and create their own election outcome predictions. — Justice Dept. sues ship owners for $100 million over Baltimore bridge collapse, cites negligence and cost-cutting. The Justice Dept. filed a $100 million lawsuit against Grace Ocean Private Limited and Synergy Marine Private Limited, owners of the container ship that destroyed Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge in March. The lawsuit claims cost-cutting and negligence in ship maintenance led to the avoidable disaster, killing six workers and disrupting the Port of Baltimore. Federal prosecutors argue the companies sent an unseaworthy ship with a poorly prepared crew to navigate U.S. waters, leading to catastrophic failures in crucial ship systems. The lawsuit seeks to cover the government’s response costs and punitive damages, emphasizing the companies’ continued operations in U.S. waters. The FBI has launched a criminal investigation into the incident, though no charges have been filed yet. — Tyson Foods, the company that produces about 20% of the meat sold in the U.S., was sued for greenwashing. Details in Livestock section.

— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. Dow opened up 470 points higher. Says the Sevens Report: “Markets exist, for the near term, in an environment of 1) Easing Fed, 2) Slowing but “OK” economic data, 3) Generally solid earnings and 4) Positive momentum. As such, a continued grind higher in stocks over the near term shouldn’t be a surprise, even if that does stretch the absolute bounds of reasonable valuations.” The prices of bonds and cryptocurrencies are rising, too. In Asia, Japan +2.1%. Hong Kong +2%. China +0.7%. India +0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +1.5%.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices finished with losses in the wake of the Fed rate cut decision. The Dow ended down 103.08 points, 0.25%, at 41,503.10. The Nasdaq fell 54.76 points, 0.31%, at 17,583.30. The S&P 500 declined 16.32 points, 0.29%, at 5,618.26.

— SEC approves half-penny increments for stock trading. The SEC has unanimously approved new rules allowing stock trades in half-penny increments for popular stocks, aiming to increase competition and lower costs for investors. The move, part of broader market reforms, is expected to impact over 1,700 stocks and will take effect in November 2025. While it may save investors money, stock exchanges like Nasdaq and NYSE could see reduced revenue. The brokerage industry had pushed back against earlier proposals for even smaller increments, citing complexity.

— Axel Springer has agreed to break up its business, handing a majority stake in its classified ad division to its largest investors, KKR and CPP Investments. The company will retain control of media properties like Politico and Business Insider. The $15 billion deal allows CEO Mathias Döpfner to pursue further media acquisitions, while ending KKR’s involvement with Axel Springer, a partnership that has faced scrutiny in the past. According to the NYT, the breakup values the publishing assets at around $4 billion.

— Oil prices were mostly flat Wednesday but traded down slightly. WTI traded down $0.28 to close at $70.91. Brent traded down $.05 to close at $73.65.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat briefly traded higher early in the overnight session but have weakened and are near their lows early this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 3 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 6 cents lower, winter wheat markets were 8 to 9 cents lower and spring wheat was 5 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures were both modestly firmer this morning.

Extended cash cattle negotiations likely. Cash cattle trade so far this week has been too light for a true market test, though the initial activity hints at steady/firmer prices. But after recently seeing margins move into the black, packers may be reluctant to raise prices again this week as wholesale prices fell $2.53 for Choice and $2.47 for Select on Wednesday. Without an uptick in prices, feedlots may hold out until after Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report to sell this week’s supplies.

Cash hog index stabilizes. The CME lean hog index held at $84.22 as of Sept. 17, ending the string of seasonal price pressure. After additional gains in October lean hog futures on Wednesday, the discount in the front-month contract is down to $2.17. Traders will likely want to see an uptick in the cash index before tightening that much further.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn rose 1/4 cent to $4.12 3/4, marking a mid-range close.
• Soy complex: November soybeans rose 8 cents to $10.14 and near mid-range. December soybean meal fell 10 cents to $321.40 and nearer the session low. December soybean oil rose 43 points to 40.31 cents and near mid-range.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat was unchanged at $5.75 3/4, while December HRW wheat fell 1 1/2 cents to $5.78 1/2, each forging low-range closes. December spring wheat fell 4 1/4 cents to $6.16 3/4.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 89 points to 71.27 cents and near mid-range.
• Cattle: Most cattle futures rose modestly Wednesday, with the exception being the nearby October contract, which slipped 50 cents to $178.30. Most-active October feeder futures dropped 80 cents to $239.95.
• Hogs: October lean hog futures climbed 27.5 cents to $82.05, settling nearer session highs.

— Of note:

• JPMorgan was the one major bank whose economists called the Fed’s 50-basis point cut. It’s less sure on what’s next, but said its call for another big reduction in November hinges on the labor market getting weaker. Link for more.

• RBC economists warn of recession-like conditions for Canadian households. While Canada is not officially in a recession, Royal Bank of Canada economists argue that many households are experiencing recession-like conditions. Per-capita GDP has declined in seven of the last eight quarters, and unemployment is rising, particularly affecting younger Canadians. RBC notes that current labor-market trends resemble those seen in past recessions and predicts gradual interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada until mid-2025, when the overnight rate may reach 3%.

• 281,011: Containers carried by U.S. railroads in intermodal operations in the second week of September, breaking a record set three weeks earlier for container originations, according to the Association of American Railroads.

• $79 million: The amount of an award recently issued by the Internal Revenue Service to three whistleblowers. The three tipsters helped the U.S. government recover about $264 million from a single taxpayer, according to law firm Whistleblower Partners, which represented one of the tipsters.

— Highlights from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 18:

Interest rate decision: The FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% - 5.00%. This marks the first interest rate cut since March 2020 and the beginning of an easing cycle. The cut was meant to ease household finances and bolster the labor market, which has become the Fed’s new principal worry.

Economic Projections
• The median projection for the federal funds rate is 4.4% at the end of 2024 and 3.4% at the end of 2025, lower than previous projections.
• GDP growth is projected at 2.0% for 2024 and 2025.
• The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% at the end of 2024 and 2025.
• PCE inflation is projected at 2.3% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025, somewhat lower than previous projections.

Policy stance: The Fed characterized this as a “recalibration” of policy as they begin moving toward a more neutral stance. Some industry analysts say it was the Fed playing catch-up because they did not cut rates during the July FOMC meeting. Chair Jay Powell emphasized they are not on a preset course and will continue making decisions meeting-by-meeting. The Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back down to their 2% goal while supporting maximum employment.

Outlook
• Policymakers see another 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, four cuts in 2025 and two cuts in 2026.
• The Fed expressed “greater confidence” about the inflation outlook, which contributed to the larger 50 basis point cut.
• Powell noted they could dial back policy restraint more slowly if inflation persists or more quickly if the labor market weakens unexpectedly.
• More inflation data will be coming Sept. 27 with the August personal consumption expenditures index.

Impact: The Fed significantly improved the odds of a soft landing, writes WSJ’s Greg Ip (link). Jason Furman of Harvard, who has criticized the Fed’s handling of inflation, said that the central bank had just about pulled it off. In the closest thing you’ll see to a central banker taking a victory lap, Powell said, “Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends,” with the central bank now seeing the inflation problem as a fading risk.

Remember this: The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times again were the papers that first signaled the Fed was contemplating a cut of 50 basis points. Those papers are usually the ones to watch ahead of major FOMC meetings.

— Bank of England holds interest rate at 5% after August cut. The Bank of England maintained its Bank Rate at 5% during its September 2024 meeting, following a 25-basis point cut in August, the first reduction in over four years. One member advocated for an additional cut to 4.75%. Inflation was at 2.2% in August and is expected to rise slightly by year-end. Services inflation remains high at 5.6%, while wage growth slowed to 4.9%. GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 0.3% per quarter, and the Bank plans to reduce its UK government bond holdings by £100 billion over the next year. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the reduced inflationary pressures would likely allow the BOE to lower rates gradually in coming months. “But it’s vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much,” he said in a statement.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer, even as the euro, yen and British pound were all higher against the U.S. currency. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 3.72%, amid a mostly higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were posting solid gains, with U.S. crude around $71.60 per barrel and Brent around $74.45 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were posting strong gains ahead of US market action with gold around $2,615 per troy ounce and silver around $31.52 per troy ounce.

— Brazil raises wheat import quota through year-end. Brazil’s foreign trade chamber raised the quota for wheat imports through the end of the year to avoid potential shortages. The announcement didn’t specify the amount of the quota increase, though the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo) proposed in June to increase it by 500,000 MT, which would bring the total quota to 1.25 MMT.

— India’s rice production to increase despite heavy rains. India’s rice production this year will be higher than last year despite heavy rains and flooding in some states, Agricultural Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said, without providing a specific estimate. India’s monsoon season from June through September produced rainfall 7.6% above average, causing concerns about yield loss for rice in some areas. Chouhan said flooding is not widespread, impacting only a few states.

— Ag trade update: Japan purchased 123,012 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender, including 66,397 MT U.S., 31,795 MT Canadian and 24,820 MT Australian.

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern Plains and Upper Midwest today... ...Late-summer heat forecast from the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.

(NWS)

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grains face pressure overnight
• Argentine grains ships load less cargo as river levels near record lows

— House rejects Speaker’s temporary spending plan. The House voted down a six-month stopgap funding bill (220 no votes, 202 yes votes), mostly split mostly along party lines — 14 Republicans voted against the bill, and two GOP members voted “present,” effectively defeating the measure. Three Democrats voted yes. The bill, proposed by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), included a controversial provision requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, which Democrats opposed.

Former President Trump urged Republicans to oppose any continuing resolution without the voting provision.

Johnson, who said after the vote he was “disappointed,” will likely pursue a Plan B to avoid a partial shutdown. “We’ll draw up another play and we’ll come up with a solution,” Johnson said. “I’m already talking to colleague about their many ideas. We have time to fix the situation, and we’ll get right to it.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned that allowing a shutdown before the general election would be “politically beyond stupid.”

Lawmakers must pass a new funding measure by Sept. 30 to prevent a shutdown. The Senate may propose a clean continuing resolution without riders. Democrats, and some Republicans, are pushing for a shorter extension into December. A temporary fix would allow the current Congress to hammer out a final bill after the Nov. 5 elections and get it to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature.

— Sen. Shaheen again pushes crop insurance changes that would significantly impact the program. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is reintroducing the Assisting Family Farmers through Insurance Reform Measures (AFFIRM) Act, which would:
• Limit federal crop insurance subsidies to $40,000 per farmer per year
• Eliminate crop insurance premium subsidies for individuals with an adjusted gross income over $250,000
• Reduce government subsidies to crop insurance companies
• Cap government payments to insurers at $900 million annually (down from about $1.5 billion currently)
• Increase transparency by requiring reporting of all entities receiving federally subsidized crop insurance

The bill is estimated to save over $40 billion in taxpayer funds over a 10-year period.

Of note: Shaheen has introduced similar versions of this bill in previous sessions of Congress, often with Republican co-sponsors. Shaheen argues that the current program is not using taxpayer dollars effectively or efficiently. She contends that large farms and agribusinesses can afford to pay for their own insurance without high levels of taxpayer funding. The reforms aim to maintain protections for smaller family farms while reducing subsidies to large operations and insurance companies.

Outlook: Previous efforts have not succeeded in changing the program and they will not pass this time.

— A day after hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah militants blew up, their walkie-talkies exploded, killing at least 20 people and injuring hundreds, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah has accused Israel of being behind the attacks; Israel has yet to comment. On Wednesday Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, said the country had entered a “new phase” in the war.

Upshot: The blasts have sharply heightened Pentagon concern about a potential ground war erupting in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah.

— Harris to meet Zelenskyy in Washington amid Russian advances and Ukraine’s “victory plan” push. Vice President Kamala Harris plans to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Washington next week, aiming to enhance her foreign policy profile ahead of the 2024 election. The meeting comes as Russia has made gains in the ongoing conflict, and Zelensky seeks further NATO and EU support along with more advanced weapons as part of his “victory plan.” Zelenskiy will present this plan to President Joe Biden during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly and is eager to share it with both Harris and Donald Trump. Harris criticized Trump for not committing to Ukraine’s victory, emphasizing that if Trump had won in 2020, Putin might already be in Kyiv with ambitions for further European conquest.

— Ukraine’s corn exports could be halved in 2024-25. Ukraine’s corn exportable surplus is likely to fall sharply in 2024-25 amid a plunge in production due to poor weather, agricultural producers union UAC said. UAC forecasts corn production at 21 MMT to 22 MMT, with 5 MMT of that total expected to be used domestically. That would leave 15 MMT to 17 MMT for export. In 2023-24, Ukraine exported around 30 MMT of corn. The latest forecasts from Ukraine’s ag ministry put corn production at 25 MMT and exports at up to 22 MMT, both well above UAC.

Of note: Ukraine exported over 70 million tons of commodities by over 2,500 ships through its Black Sea export corridor, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says in a statement on Telegram

— Four Russian grain regions declare state of emergency due to heavy rains. Russia’s vast Krasnoyarsk region declared a state of emergency on Thursday due to heavy rains killing winter crops during sprouting time, bringing the total number of Siberian grain-producing regions under emergency conditions to four. Earlier, a state of emergency was announced in the Tomsk, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions. Together, the four regions accounted for about 5% of last year’s grain production.

— Stabenow resists emergency ag aid before new farm bill. Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is pushing to finalize a full five-year farm bill rather than pursue an ad hoc emergency assistance package for farmers, despite pressure from commodity groups and some lawmakers. Stabenow believes it’s “too early” for emergency relief talks, focusing instead on securing long-term legislation. Ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.) agrees discussions about an extension can wait until after the election, while others, like Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), are advocating for disaster relief to bridge the gap before the new bill is authorized.

Stabenow said the legislation must consider public nutrition and agricultural programs equally.

Senior staffers from the House and Senate Agriculture committees continue to discuss elements of a new farm bill. Typically, staffers resolve technical matters, while the Republican and Democratic leaders of the committees decide the major issues. If the committee leaders agree on an outline of the new bill, staff workers could have text ready for consideration in November, Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), ranking on the House Agriculture Committee, said last week.

— U.S. soybeans main export sales to China in most recent week. Export Sales data for the week ended Sept. 12 indicated that soybean export sales along with some amounts of sorghum, beef and pork. Activity for 2024-25 included net sales of 6,571 metric tons of sorghum, 973,943 metric tons of soybeans, and 1 running bale of upland cotton. For 2024, net sales of 3,001 metric tons of beef and 454 metric tons of pork were reported.

— Senate Republicans unveil 2025 plan to counter China’s global influence. Senate Republicans, led by Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), have introduced their 2025 legislative roadmap to crack down on China’s growing global influence. The plan, known as the STRATEGIC Act, includes antitrust reforms to curb China’s predatory economic practices, increased support for Taiwan, and new measures to counter Chinese influence in U.S. think tanks and universities. It also targets Beijing’s harassment of U.S. diplomats and restricts the use of Chinese drones in the Middle East. The package lays the foundation for GOP strategy if they regain Senate control.

— China removes tariff exemptions on 34 agricultural products from Taiwan. The PRC removed tariff exemptions on 34 agricultural products originating from Taiwan, including fresh fruits, vegetables, and aquatic products, because “since the Lai Ching-te administration took office, it has stubbornly adhered to the ‘Taiwan independence’ stance, continuously provoked for ‘independence,’ escalated hostility and confrontation across the Strait, and obstructed cross-strait exchanges and cooperation. To date, it still unilaterally restricts the import of over 1,000 agricultural products from the mainland, seriously harming the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Strait.”

— China’s economic slowdown predicted to deepen, experts warn. China’s economic growth is expected to deteriorate further, with leading indicators signaling a significant downturn, according to economists Freya Beamish and Rory Green at TS Lombard. They highlight issues such as declining money supply, rising labor costs, and increasing numbers of loss-making companies. Growth is projected to fall well below the 2024 target of 5%, possibly reaching as low as 1-2%, though Chinese authorities are unlikely to officially report such low figures. Nominal GDP is also expected to contract.

— Chinese automakers’ answer to EU tariffs: Build in Europe. BYD, which leads China’s electric vehicle sector, is constructing a plant in Hungary while its Chinese rivals expand through joint ventures in Europe. Link to New York Times for details.

— The EU is considering working 0n a trade deal with the United Arab Emirates as the 27-member bloc seeks to cooperate more with the Gulf states on issues including energy and security. Link to details via Bloomberg.

— Russia aims to control 20% of global LNG market despite sanctions. Russia is determined to capture 20% of the global LNG market by the end of the decade, despite international sanctions. Bloomberg reports (link) that Moscow is reportedly assembling a “shadow fleet” to transport fuel from its Arctic LNG 2 facility. To circumvent trade restrictions, Russia is employing tactics such as falsifying ship locations, establishing fake offices, and offering significant discounts to hesitant buyers.

(LNG impacts)

— EWG sues Tyson Foods for alleged false claims on environmental impact and sustainability. The Environmental Working Group (EWG) filed a lawsuit against Tyson Foods, Inc., accusing the company of making false and misleading claims about its environmental impact and sustainability efforts. The lawsuit, filed in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia, targets two main claims made by Tyson:

• The company’s commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
• Marketing of its beef products as “climate-smart”

The lawsuit argues that Tyson’s claims are unsubstantiated and misleading to consumers who are increasingly interested in purchasing climate-friendly foods. EWG contends that Tyson produces significant volumes of climate-warming emissions at every stage of its industrial meat production process. The environmental group claims that Tyson has no concrete plans to achieve its stated goals and is not taking meaningful steps to do so.

The lawsuit alleges that despite Tyson’s annual revenues exceeding $53 billion, the company spends less than $50 million (less than 0.1% of its revenue) on greenhouse gas reduction practices. EWG claims that Tyson spends about eight times more on advertising than on research.

Tyson produces about 20% of U.S. beef, chicken, and pork. The company’s greenhouse gas emissions reportedly exceed those of entire countries like Austria or Greece. Beef production is said to be responsible for 85% of the company’s emissions.

The lawsuit was filed under the District of Columbia Consumer Protection Procedures Act (CPPA). EWG is being represented by a coalition of environmental and animal rights organizations. The lawsuit seeks injunctive relief, aiming to stop Tyson from continuing to make these environmental claims and to hold the company accountable for alleged violations of the CPPA.

Upshot: This legal action is part of a growing trend of scrutiny over corporate environmental claims, often referred to as “greenwashing.”

— Democrat LaMonica McIver wins the special election for New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District to fill the remaining term of the late House Democrat Donald Payne Jr. that expires in Jan. 2025, the Associated Press says. McIver is also running in the Nov. 5 election to serve a full term.

— Venezuela’s true election winner, Edmundo González, says he was coerced into acknowledging Maduro’s victory, now seeks asylum in Spain. Edmundo González, the true victor of Venezuela’s July presidential election, revealed that he was coerced into signing a letter recognizing the victory of Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian leader of the country. González, who has since sought asylum in Spain, stated that his decision was based on the belief that he could be more effective outside of prison. Maduro, after allegedly rigging the election, has continued to suppress opposition and dissent within Venezuela, consolidating his control over the country.

— U.S. travelers can now renew passports online in new State Dept. program. The U.S. State Department has launched an online program allowing adult Americans to renew their passports without visiting in person or mailing documents. The service applies to 10-year passports expired within the past five years or those expiring within the next year. The State Department expects five million people to use this service annually, with processing times of six to eight weeks. First-time applicants and children must still apply via mail, and expedited service isn’t available online. The program aims to modernize and reduce reliance on paper-based applications.

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