Polish President: Missile Killing Two in Poland Probably Ukrainian Air Defense

Retail sales expand faster than expected, suggesting resilience in household spending

USDA daily export sales: 150,000 metric tons of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022-2023 marketing year; 1,866,900 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 1,242,060 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022-2023 marketing year and 624,840 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023-2024 marketing year. The corn sale to Mexico was the fifth largest daily corn sale on record.

A Ukrainian air-defense system likely fired the missile that hit Poland, Western officials say. President Joe Biden said it was “unlikely” that a missile that landed in Poland, killing two men, was fired from within Russia itself. As noted above, Polish President Andrzej Duda on Wednesday said the missile blast that killed two people on Tuesday appears to have been an accident and not a deliberate attack adding it was probably Ukrainian Air Defense. Ukraine uses Russian-made missiles, notably in air-defense systems. Leaders of the G7 and Western countries at the G20 held emergency meetings about the matter; NATO and the U.N. Security Council will meet today.

The incident in Poland came on the same day that Russia unleashed a volley of missiles across Ukraine, striking its energy infrastructure again as well as residential buildings in Kyiv.

Retail sales expanded at a faster rate than expected in October, suggesting some resilience in household spending despite the slowing economy. Details in Markets section.

Dwindling stockpiles of diesel have driven prices to a record premium over gasoline and crude oil.

The U.S. wants to boost solar power generation — a lot. To make that happen, though, the U.S. would need to build a supply chain almost from scratch. At the moment, the U.S. has little or no manufacturing for almost any component needed to produce solar energy. China controls more than 80% of the supply chain.

On the policy front, some updates on two biofuel actions by EPA… in energy section. For the ag sector, USDA finally released some info on Phase 2 of the Emergency Relief Program, with more to come “soon” when the rule is published. Meanwhile, Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) tells Politico she will maintain her post on the Ag Committee. Also, the Senate Ag panel on Tuesday held a farm bill hearing on rural development and energy titles.

On trade policy, a U.S. panel calls for review of China trade relations. Details in China section.

China is continuing to ease Covid-19 restrictions even as cases surge. On Wednesday, China reported almost 20,000 new locally transmitted Covid-19 cases, with infections recorded all over the country.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy due to an overheated job market, and that will make it increasingly difficult to bring inflation down without a recession.

The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation rose to a 41-year high in October on surging energy prices, underscoring the stubbornness of inflation even with a new government price cap on energy and a looming recession.

Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign despite Republicans’ disappointing midterm results. The former president, 76, is making a third consecutive White House bid, determined to avenge his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, who turns 80 on Sunday and has indicated he wants to seek a second term. Some Republican governors and their donors said Trump’s role as a leader of their party is diminished after the GOP’s subpar midterm-election performance.

House Republicans backed Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as speaker in a closed-door meeting. His challenger received 31 votes, showing that McCarthy has more work to do to win the vote of the full chamber on the floor next year.

NASA finally launched its Artemis I rocket to the moon, ushering in a new era of American space exploration.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 50 points lower, then turned slightly higher before declining again. If economic data and geopolitical headlines remain favorable today, the S&P 500 should be able to make another run at critical technical resistance at 4,007 in the S&P 500, says the Sevens Report. A close above that level would open the door to another leg higher in the latest relief rally in the broader stock market. Over the past four trading sessions, the Nasdaq has risen 9.7%, as inflation data showed a moderation in the rise of consumer and producer prices. That has fueled investor hopes that the Fed will slow its pace of interest rate increases. In Asia, Japan +0.14%. Hong Kong -0.47%. China -0.55%. India +0.17%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.05%. Paris -0.46%. Frankfurt -0.88%.

Walmart reported strong third-quarter revenues of $153 billion, a rise of 8.7% versus the same period last year. The company’s stock rose by more than 7%. The firm also agreed to pay $3.1bn to American states and cities which sued the retailer for contributing to the opioid crisis by failing to regulate prescriptions. It has not, however, conceded liability.

U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices finished Tuesday with gains even though both the Dow and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory at times. The Dow ended up 56.22 points, 0.17%, at 33,592.92. The Nasdaq gained 162.19 points, 1.45%, at 11,358.41. The S&P 500 was up 34.48 points, 0.87%, at 3,991.73.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn gained 1/2 cent to $6.66 3/4, after dropping earlier to a 2 1/2-month low at $6.51 1/4.
• Soy complex: January soybeans rose 16 3/4 cents to $14.57 1/4, the contract’s highest close since Nov. 4. December soymeal rose $3.90 to $409.90. December soyoil rose 70 cents to 76.98 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to $8.28 1/4, the contract’s highest close since Nov. 7. December HRW wheat rose 6 3/4 cents to $9.63, the highest since Nov. 1. December spring wheat rose 11 cents to $9.74.
• Cotton: December cotton rose 346 points to 88.74 cents, a five-week high close.
• Cattle: December live cattle fell 30 cents to $151.275, the contract’s lowest close since Oct. 18. January feeder cattle fell $2.425 to $177.025, a four-week low today.
• Hogs: December lean hogs rose 45 cents to $85.3250, the contract’s highest close since Nov. 8. Wednesday’s preliminary CME lean hog index was expected to fall 16 cents to $88.49, the lowest since Feb. 9.
  

Ag markets today: Grain markets faced pressure overnight and are trading near session lows this morning as the war escalation concerns that fueled gains late Tuesday have eased. As of 6:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 5 to 8 cents lower, soybeans were 10 to 13 cents lower, SRW wheat was 20 to 23 cents lower, HRW wheat was 18 to 19 cents lower and HRS wheat was mostly 9 to 17 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were near unchanged and the U.S. dollar was more than 300 points lower this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. retail sales for October are expected to increase 1.2% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: See item below.
• U.S. import prices for October are expected to fall 0.4% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET). UPDATE: U.S. import prices fall less than expected. Import prices in the U.S. decreased by 0.2% from a month earlier in October of 2022, following a 1.1% decline in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 0.4% drop as the strong dollar helped to reduce prices of imported goods. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Fuel prices were down 1.3% while nonfuel edged down 0.1%. Compared to the same period last year, U.S. import prices advanced by 4.2%, the least since February 2021, after rising 6% in September.
• U.S. industrial production for October is expected to increase 0.1% from the prior month. (9:15 a.m. ET) UPDATE: Industrial production in the U.S. decreased 0.1% month over month in October of 2022, after a 0.1% increase in September and missing market expectations of a 0.2% gain. Manufacturing output went up 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. The index for durable manufacturing rose 0.5%, the index for nondurable manufacturing fell 0.3%, and the index for other manufacturing was unchanged. Within durables, increases of at least 1.5% were recorded by electrical equipment, appliances, and components; aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment; and motor vehicles and parts. Within nondurables, gains for printing and support, plastics and rubber products, and apparel and leather products were outweighed by losses elsewhere, especially for petroleum and coal products, textile and product mills, and paper. The index for mining stepped down 0.4%, and the index for utilities fell 1.5%. Capacity utilization decreased 0.2 percentage point to 79.9%, a rate that is 0.3 percentage point above its long-run average.
• Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey appears before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at 9:15 a.m. ET
• U.S. business inventories for September are expected to increase 0.5% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
• National Association of Home Builders housing market index is expected to fall to 36 in November from 38 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
• Federal Reserve speakers: New York’s John Williams at a Treasury market conference at 9:50 a.m. ET, Vice Chair William Barr at a House hearing on financial regulation at 10 a.m. ET, and governor Christopher Waller on the economic outlook at 2:35 p.m. ET.

Retail sales top forecasts. Retail sales in the U.S. surged 1.3% month-over-month in October of 2022, the strongest increase in eight months, after a flat reading in September and beating market forecasts of a 1% gain.

Details: Sales at motor vehicle dealers were up 1.3% as supply chain constraints have been easing while rising gasoline costs pushed sales at gasoline stations 4.1% higher. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales were up 0.9%. Other increases were also seen for sales at food services and drinking places (1.6%); food and beverages stores (1.4%); nonstore retailers (1.2%); furniture (1.1%); building materials (1.1%); and health and personal care (0.5%). Retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation. Sales were down for electronics (-0.3%); sporting goods, hobby, musical and books (-0.3%); and at general merchandise stores (-0.2).

Bottom line: October data pointed to resilient consumer spending, despite high inflation and rising borrowing costs hitting consumer demand.

30-year mortgage rate lowest in five weeks. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) in the U.S. fell by 24bps to 6.9% in the week ended November 11, the biggest decline since the last week of July, and pushing borrowing costs to the lowest in five weeks, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed. Bond yields were lower last week after U.S. inflation for October came lower-than-expected. Still, mortgage rates remain close to levels not seen since 2001, and more than double the 3% reported a year earlier.

Britain’s annual inflation rate reached 11.1% in October, up from 10.1% in September and a 41-year high. The cost of food and non-alcoholic drink, for instance, rose by 16.2%. Britain’s chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is expected to raise taxes in his autumn budget on Thursday.

Recession odds rising. Despite growing signs the worst of inflation may be in the rearview mirror, fund managers around the world are increasingly worried a recession will occur over the next 12 months, dealing a blow to the U.S. but potentially causing even more damage throughout Europe. Topping the list of fears is that the economy in 2023 will be marked by stagflation, a so-called worst-case scenario for markets where there’s below-average growth but above-average inflation. Link to more from Forbes.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note remained below 3.8% in mid-November, the lowest since early October, as investors continued to assess the extent of rate hikes that the Federal Reserve will still deliver in its ongoing tightening cycle. Crude was narrowly mixed, with U.S. crude trading around $86.85 per barrel while Brent is firmer around $93.90 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher, with gold around $1,783 per troy ounce and silver around $21.90 per troy ounce.

• Gold has jumped nearly 10% over the past two weeks, as have other major industrial metals like aluminum and copper. That surge in commodity prices isn’t just “Fed-focused speculation,” according to Tom Price, the head of commodities strategy for Liberum: Signs of an improving U.S. economy and China’s recent move to prop up its ailing property market are drawing buyers to the metals market.

• Dwindling stockpiles of diesel have driven prices to a record premium over gasoline and crude oil, showing how war, weather and other disruptions to globalized energy markets are still producing price shocks and potential shortages, the WSJ reports (link).

• A surge in heating-oil prices is hitting the Northeast U.S. as it braces for colder weather, putting the squeeze on household budgets and potentially accelerating the region’s shift toward other fuels. An average household that burns heating oil could spend 45% more for it this winter, according to a base-case forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, translating to hundreds more dollars apiece

• The U.N. and the U.S. are working to create a climate early-warning system that can better anticipate severe droughts, heat waves, tropical storms and floods.

• NWS weather: An intensifying coastal low will produce inland mixed precipitation and snow; coastal rain across the Northeast through Wednesday... ...Significant Lake Effect Snow event in the Great Lakes downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Friday... ...Strong Santa Ana winds across Southern California subsiding Wednesday evening... ...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of the week.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Moderate to heavy price pressure overnight
• Black Sea grain export initiative update (details in Russia/Ukraine section)
• Yellen holds ‘frank, constructive, positive’ talks with PBOC head (details in China section)
• China to auction more state wheat reserves
• Mexico will vaccinate poultry to block bird flu
• Holiday week ahead may limit packer demand
• Neutral stance toward cash hog market over next month

— Summary: Russian long-range missiles struck targets across Ukraine including Kyiv, the capital, damaging more crucial energy infrastructure. At least half of the city is without electricity, according to the city’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko. Elsewhere, the Russian army withdrew further from the eastern side of the Dnieper River, opposite the city of Kherson, the southern provincial capital it abandoned last week.

• Plea for Russian/Ukraine war to end. In his opening speech, the host of the G20 summit, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, warned that “if the war does not end, it will be difficult for the world to move forward.” The conflict has aggravated the many global problems, from inflation to food shortages, that the G20 is grappling with. A final communiqué from the summit noted that most members condemn the war in Ukraine, but that there are also “different assessments” of the situation.

  Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants the deal to be “extended indefinitely,” he said Tuesday at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. “I believe our export grain initiative deserves an indefinite extension — no matter when the war ends.” He also wants more ports than just the three in Odesa be allowed to ag commodities under the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

• White House requests $38 billion more in Ukraine aid. If lawmakers fund the supplemental request, it would bring the total amount Congress has appropriated for Ukraine to more than $100 billion in less than a year. The Office of Management and Budget asked Congress to include the $38 billion Ukraine supplemental funding request — which includes $21.7 billion in security assistance – in the government funding bill for fiscal 2023, while seeking additional funds for Covid-19 relief and disaster assistance.

  Congress has already passed $65.9 billion in Ukraine assistance through three separate supplemental funding packages since Russia’s invasion in February. If Congress funds the fourth request, it would bring the total amount of Ukraine aid lawmakers have approved to $104 billion in less than a year.

  The $21.7 billion in Pentagon funding is “for equipment for Ukraine, replenishment of Department of Defense stocks and for continued military, intelligence and other defense support,” according to a summary table accompanying the supplemental request.

  The request includes another $14.5 billion in funding for the State Department and USAID for direct financial support to the Ukrainian government, humanitarian assistance and strengthening global food security. A $900 million request for the Department of Health and Human Services would “provide standard assistance health care and support services to Ukrainian parolees.”

  There’s more: Besides the total $38 billion Ukraine aid request, the White House is also asking Congress to authorize $7 billion in presidential drawdown authority for Kyiv – which allows President Joe Biden to transfer weapons from existing U.S. stocks. The Defense Department announced last week that it would transfer another $400 million worth of U.S. weapons stocks to Ukraine, and it has used drawdown authority more than 20 times since August 2021.

• Black Sea grain export initiative update. Russia spoke in favor of extending the Black Sea grain deal at this week’s G20 summit in Bali, if more grain was sent to countries in the greatest need, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Russian state-run RT news channel. Russia is also seeking to free up its exports of grains and fertilizers. The Kremlin said on Wednesday Russia had seen “certain progress” toward addressing its concerns over the Black Sea grain deal.

  Meanwhile, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he believed the grain export deal will be extended beyond its Nov. 19 deadline, adding that his country is making efforts to extend it by a year.
  

— USDA announces Phase 2 of ERP effort, other aid actions, but more details to come later. USDA announced the launch of Phase 2 of its Emergency Relief Program (ERP) with Phase 1 paying out $7.15 billion to eligible producers. Phase 2 is targeted to those who suffered losses in 2020 and 2021 but may not have received any payments under Phase 1 for losses in allowable gross revenue for traditionally insurable crops and specialty crops intended to be commercially marketed. Link to USDA release.

The payments will be based on the difference in farm revenue between a typical year and the disaster year and are to avoid windfall or duplicate payments.

USDA said that the signup deadline for Phase 1 ERP will be Dec. 16.

The new Pandemic Assistance Revenue Program (PARP) will be available to help those with agricultural commodities that saw revenue declines in calendar 2020 compared with 2018 or 2019 due to the Covid pandemic. USDA said PARP is aimed at addressing “gaps in previous pandemic assistance which was targeted at price loss or lack of market access, rather than overall revenue.” Under PARP, USDA said producers will use revenue information available from “most tax records,” and urged producers to have those documents available for the past few years along with supporting materials. USDA said the documentation is similar to what they had to provide for the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 (CFAP 2) effort which allowed for 2018 or 2019 to be used as the benchmark year.

Of note, USDA said that more details on ERP Phase 2 and PARP will be made available “in the coming weeks” when the rule is published.

— Sen. Stabenow tells Politico she will stay in chair role on Agriculture Committee. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told Politico that she will remain as chair of the panel, citing the coming farm bill debate and process as likely one of the few things that can get done in the next two years. “Oh yes, absolutely,” she said when asked about staying as chair of the panel.

She said efforts are continuing to advance nominees for posts at USDA that the panel has cleared but have not yet been considered by the full Senate. But she did not offer any odds on whether that will happen during the coming lame-duck session of Congress.

Stabenow would also like to see bills on cattle pricing and putting a special investigator in place at USDA for meat and poultry issues, but said that it would depend on bipartisan support.

She said for ag worker immigration reform to get through, agriculture interests are going to have “lean in very heavily.”

— A federal judge struck down the pandemic-era Title 42 policy that the Biden administration has used against migrants crossing the border illegally.

— Initial new farm bill hearing held by Senate Ag Committee on rural development and energy. The hearing focused its initial hearing on energy and rural development areas, with some lawmakers complaining that the definition of “rural” seemed restrictive relative to certain programs, but USDA Undersecretary for Rural Development Xochitl Torres Small noted that some of the definitions are written in the legislation and thus Congress would have to make the changes as opposed to the administration being able to shift them.

Members asked about environmental and historic preservation reviews, which they said slow down the development of many rural projects. Torres Small said the environmental reviews are vital to address “environmental justice.”

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) criticized USDA support for confined animal feeding operations and said he sees linkages between food deserts in rural areas and urban areas. Booker said he believes that current farm subsidies encourage the growing of crops that lead to food deserts and that he wants to work on “realigning subsidies” in the new farm bill. Torres Small said that encouraging farmers to diversify their crops “can make farmers more resilient.”

More bioenergy efforts should be part of the next farm bill, the panel heard.

An electrifying moment. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) revealed he had gotten an electricity bill for his home in Illinois with no charge because he has installed solar panels on the house. But Durbin added that a hog farmer had told him that he cannot use solar panels to provide electricity for his hog facility because his electricity co-op has said it would have to upgrade his electricity service. Stabenow said a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act has “specific dollars” for the modernization of transmission lines.

— Yellen holds ‘frank, constructive, positive’ talks with PBOC head. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met China’s central bank Governor Yi Gang on Wednesday for talks covering issues such as high energy and commodity prices, as well as the macroeconomic outlook in both countries. The meeting “had a frank, constructive, and positive tone,” said a U.S. Treasury official. “In the context of global challenges, Secretary Yellen and Governor Yi also discussed G20 issues,” said the official. Yellen and Treasury officials had previously said they would seek more clarity on China’s plans to ease its Covid-19 lockdowns that have curtailed its growth and restricted its supply chains and how Beijing will deal with problems in its massive property sector.

— China relaxes Covid restrictions as cases surge. China is continuing to ease Covid-19 restrictions even as cases surge. On Wednesday, China reported almost 20,000 new locally transmitted Covid-19 cases, with infections recorded all over the country. That hasn’t stopped many local authorities from announcing further relaxation of control measures. China’s economy sank into a deeper funk last month, as the weight of Covid measures added to a prolonged property downturn and sinking export demand.

— U.S. would need a whole new supply chain to compete against China on solar power. The U.S. currently has little or no manufacturing for almost any component needed to produce solar energy, while China, which can produce solar components less expensively, controls more than 80% of the supply chain. If the U.S. becomes more reliant on solar power, depending on China for equipment could present a security risk, politicians and energy executives said, according to the WSJ (link). Bottlenecks in the manufacture and shipping of solar components during the pandemic, along with deteriorating U.S.-China relations, have exacerbated supply-chain concerns.

— China new home prices fall the most in over seven years. Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities dropped by 1.6% year-on-year in October 2022, after a 1.5% decline a month earlier. It was the sixth straight month of decrease in new home prices, the steepest pace in the sequence, and the fastest fall since August 2015, amid property woes linked to a mounting debt crisis among developers as well as the impact of rising Covid cases and strict lockdowns or curbs.

Among China’s biggest cities, prices fell in Tianjin (-0.3% vs -4.3% in September), Chongqing (-0.6% vs 1.4%), Shenzhen (-0.7% vs 0.9%), and Guangzhou (-0.3% vs -0.3%) while increased much softer in both Beijing (0.4% vs 6.1%) and Shanghai (0.3% vs 3.8%).

On a monthly basis, new home prices were down 0.3%, after a 0.2% fall in September.

— A panel commissioned by Congress urged the White House to review China’s trade practices and suspend normal trade ties if Beijing violated a 1999 agreement. In its annual report, the U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended that Congress direct the Biden administration to assess China’s compliance with the landmark 1999 agreement that awarded China the “Permanent Normal Trade Relations” status as Beijing prepared to join the World Trade Organization. The commission recommended a deadline of 90 days to complete the review. If China is found to be out of compliance, the commission said, Congress should consider legislation to immediately suspend normal trade ties, which have given China the most favorable trade terms and tariff rates. The suspension could lead to a substantial increase in tariffs on imports from China. Link for details.

— People of color have been hurt the most by foreign trade competition, a new study found. The report (link), issued on Monday by the U.S. International Trade Commission, gathers academic literature and worker testimonies to show that workers who are not white have fared worse than their counterparts in the face of so-called trade shocks, such as China’s integration with the global marketplace, which eliminated jobs and lowered wages for some American workers. Link for details via the New York Times.

— EPA announcement coming on final rule on canola/rapeseed oil lifecycle analysis for biofuels. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) completed its review of the final rule from EPA on the lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions relative to certain biofuels produced from canola/rapeseed oil via a hydrotreating process. EPA’s final rule arrived at OMB Sept. 19 and their review was completed Tuesday (Nov. 15). No major changes are expected from the proposed rule issued early this year relative to the lifecycle analysis for diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas produced from canola/rapeseed oil.

— Meetings finally begin on EPA proposed rule on RFS levels for 2023 and beyond. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) began scheduling meetings on EPA’s proposed rule on the volume requirements for 2023 and beyond under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Several sessions are also slated for proposals linked to the electric vehicle (EV) industry and decarbonization efforts.

Eight meetings are scheduled so far, with separate meetings today (Nov. 16) with Fuels America, BTR Energy, and Clean Fuels America. BTR Energy is focused on reducing emissions from transportation, facilitating interactions between electric vehicles and electricity markets. A session is set for Nov. 18 with American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, with two separate sessions set for Nov. 21 with the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and AJW Incorporated — a group focusing on clean energy, clean fuels, transportation and industrial decarbonization, carbon markets and other issues. Two sessions are scheduled for Nov. 22 with Growth Energy and EVgo, the latter focusing their efforts on developing a convenient, reliable and affordable EV charging network to provide fast charging services.

A look back: OMB held 17 meetings on the proposed rule for RFS levels for 2020, 2021, and 2022, with another 24 meetings held on the final rule from EPA on those RFS levels.

Background: EPA committed via a court-approved agreement with Growth Energy issue its proposed rule no later than Nov. 30, with Growth Energy saying the Nov. 30 deadline extension would be the final delay.

— Ford’s CEO warns that making electric vehicles involves far fewer workers. Jim Farley, whose company is betting heavily on a transition to EVs, said that their production requires 40% less labor than traditional cars. He added that the solution may involve carmakers like Ford creating more components in-house to limit job reductions.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 635,960,421 with 6,613,072 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 98,088,052 with 1,075,112 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 646,524,294 doses administered, 267,032,055 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.04% of the U.S. population.

— Former President Donald Trump formally filed a notice of a third run for the White House Tuesday night — setting up a two-year fight for the heart of the Republican Party. In a speech at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, Trump said that the country had been “brought to its knees” by Joe Biden. He focused less on his unproven charges that the election of 2020 had been stolen from him, but added a twist: China interfered on Biden’s behalf, he said.

— Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) won the Republican party’s nomination for speaker of the House of Representatives, beating Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), another Trump devotee, by 188 to 31.A hardline block of right-wing Republicans may yet dash McCarthy’s hopes of becoming speaker in a House-wide contest in January, unless McCarthy makes significant concessions to the far-right members.

— NASA’s most powerful rocket in 50 years lifted off overnight, taking an unmanned capsule on a mission to the moon. Artemis I lifted off from Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39B towards the moon at 1:47 a.m. local time. Wednesday’s flight followed two previous launch attempts in August and September that were aborted during the countdown because of technical glitches.

— Taylor Swift fans crashed Ticketmaster. “Historically unprecedented” demand for presale tickets for the singer’s Eras tour took down the ticket giant’s website yesterday. That inspired Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, to call for Ticketmaster to be broken up over its “monopoly” on ticket sales.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook |