Trump softens rhetoric toward China... President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance in his trade war with China, saying U.S.-imposed tariffs of 145% on imported goods from China will come down “substantially” after the two sides negotiate a deal. The tariff levels “won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump said. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”
Trump said “we’re doing fine with China,” and suggested the U.S. won’t play hardball or raise the issue of Covid-19. “We’re going to be very nice,” he said. “Ultimately they have to make a deal.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated that President Trump is open to a trade deal with China only if Beijing initiates it. “The ball is in China’s court,” she said, emphasizing U.S. leverage. The administration is portraying strength and patience — ready to negotiate, but solely on U.S.-favorable terms. Leavitt added that she did not have anything to report on whether Trump has spoken directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Leavitt also would not elaborate on comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told a private meeting of investors in Washington on Tuesday that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China. “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable,” Bessent said at the event hosted by JPMorgan Chase.
China’s foreign ministry signaled Beijing is willing to discuss tariffs with the U.S. but won’t do so under continued threats from the Trump administration. “China’s attitude towards the tariff war launched by the U.S. is quite clear: we don’t want to fight, but we are not afraid of it. If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is wide open,” a foreign ministry spokesperson said.
White House nears tariff frameworks with Japan, India... The White House is preparing to unveil non-binding trade frameworks with Japan and India to delay steep tariffs and show diplomatic progress before a looming July deadline. These are not comprehensive trade deals, but memorandums of understanding designed to signal momentum while leaving core issues unresolved, Politico reports. The U.S. and India agreed to a negotiation roadmap, but specifics remain unclear. Failure to progress could trigger tariffs up to 26%. Talks with Japan are progressing cautiously; Tokyo resists rushed concessions, with more meetings scheduled.
U.S. will push UK to relax rules on ag imports, including beef... The U.S. is preparing its terms for trade negotiations with the United Kingdom, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the plans, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a variety of U.S. goods. Washington will push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the U.S., including beef, and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, the people said. The U.S. also will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%.
Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Powell... President Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates… but, no, I have no intention to fire him,” Trump said. Trump’s softer tone on Powell came after he recently lashed out at the Fed chair. Trump has privately raised the possibility of firing Powell to advisers in recent months. Last week, he expressed confidence that he had the authority to oust Powell.
Trade agreement reality: Trade deals take a long time... Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a leading American asset management firm. Through its chief economist Torsten Slok and published research, Apollo has repeatedly emphasized that trade negotiations are inherently complex and time-consuming. According to Apollo:
- It normally takes the U.S. an average of 18 months to negotiate a trade deal.
- Implementation of a trade agreement typically takes an additional 45 months after the deal is signed.
- Reviewing and negotiating tariffs for each product category individually (e.g., t-shirts, cars, pharmaceuticals).
- Addressing non-tariff barriers, tax differences and rules of origin.
- Discussing intellectual property rights, labor and environmental standards, anti-dumping measures, dispute resolution, digital trade, government procurement and sometimes security considerations.
Why do trade negotiations take so long? Apollo explains that the lengthy timeline is due to the complexity of the process, which involves:
“The bottom line is that trade negotiations take time because they are complex.”
Apollo warns that, given the current pace and the number of countries involved (up to 90 at once), global trade is experiencing significant delays, leading to supply chain challenges, potential shortages in U.S. stores, higher U.S. inflation and lower tourism to the United States.Apollo also estimates that if current policies do not change, there is a 90% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025, largely due to these trade disruptions.
WTO chief warns Trump tariffs trigger ‘sharp turnaround’ in global trade... World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala issued her harshest critique yet of President Trump’s tariff policies during a closed-door U.S. Chamber of Commerce session, warning of a global trade contraction. Citing WTO forecasts, she said merchandise trade is now expected to shrink 0.2% in 2025 — down sharply from a previous 2.7% growth projection — largely due to Trump’s sweeping 10% tariff on most U.S. trading partners and steep levies on steel, aluminum, and cars.
Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the chilling effect of renewed tariff uncertainty, projecting a 1.5% drop in world trade volumes this year, with reciprocal tariffs and supply chain dislocation deepening the damage. She also raised alarms over U.S./China decoupling, calling the 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods a major risk to global integration, especially for developing economies.
While defending WTO’s role, she acknowledged the U.S. has valid concerns about global overreliance on American markets and encouraged diversification. The warnings come amid prolonged WTO dysfunction — exacerbated by Trump’s previous blockade of its Appellate Body and ongoing stalemates over reform.
PP issues amid the $10 billion ECAP program... If farmers have a question regarding why USDA did not or may not release the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments on some prevent-plant (PP) acres, it is because the policy is still under USDA review. Talks with government officials point to a complex process in deciding which PP acres qualify for ECAP payouts, involving reviews of crop insurance claims, FSA reporting and compliance with program rules. Another issue is that if all pending PP inquiries are paid out (unlikely), the additional 15% ECAP payments would be called into question.
ECAP is a one-time, $10 billion program to provide direct payments to agricultural producers for the 2024 crop year. The program is designed to help farmers offset higher input costs and lower commodity prices by issuing payments based on both planted and prevented plant acres.
Eligibility and application process
- Eligible producers: Must be actively engaged in farming, have an interest in input expenses for a covered commodity, and report their 2024 acreage (both planted and prevent plant) to the Farm Service Agency (FSA) using the FSA-578 Report of Acreage and, for prevent plant, the CCC-576 Notice of Loss.
- Prevent plant acres: Only 50% of reported prevent plant acres are eligible for ECAP payments. This means if a farmer was unable to plant a crop due to qualifying conditions and reported this to FSA, half of those acres can receive payments.
- Deadline: All forms and applications must be submitted by Aug. 15, 2025.
Payment structure and limits
- Prorated payments: To avoid exceeding the $10 billion cap, initial payments are being made at 85% of the calculated eligible amount. If funds remain after the application period closes, a second payment of up to the remaining 15% may be made.
- Calculation: Payments are based on a flat per-acre rate for each eligible commodity. For prevent plant acres, the payment is half the rate for planted acres. For example, if corn’s payment rate is $42.91/acre, prevent plant corn acres would receive $21.46/acre (50% of the rate).
- Limits: Payment limits are $125,000 per individual/entity, or $250,000 if at least 75% of income comes from farming, ranching, or forestry (with proper certification).
Complexity and delays for PP payments
- Policy Review: USDA is still finalizing which prevent plant acres qualify for ECAP payouts, leading to delays and uncertainty for some farmers.
- Complex qualification process: Determining eligibility for prevent plant acres is complex, involving reviews of crop insurance claims, FSA reporting, and compliance with program rules.
- Potential for reduced second payment: If all pending prevent plant inquiries are approved and paid out (which is considered unlikely), there may not be enough funds for the additional 15% second payment, or the amount could be reduced.