OPEC+ Oil Production Cut Gets Biden to Focus on Venezuela, Congress and Perhaps Another SPR Release

Gallop poll shows major shift to GOP | Karl Rove gives Senate predictions

Soybeans main export sales activity to China ahead of holiday. USDA’s weekly Export Sales update showed subdued activity on sales to China for the week ended Sept. 29, the period leading up to their weeklong holiday. Activity for 2022-23 was listed as net reductions of 1,294 tonnes of wheat, net sales of 14,150 tonnes of corn, net sales of 157,063 tonnes of soybeans and 4,602 running bales of upland cotton. Net sales for 2022 were reported as 2,135 tonnes of beef and 10,115 tonnes of pork.

U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 29,989 jobs from their payrolls in September of 2022, the highest in three months, as hiring is slowing and downsizing events are beginning to occur. Meanwhile, a report from the Labor Department showed that jobless claims drifted higher as labor market conditions relaxed. Focus is now on U.S. employment report for September released Friday for further clues on the central bank’s rate-hike path.

The U.S. is preparing to ease sanctions on oil producer Venezuela as the Biden administration is scrambling after OPEC+’s announcement of big oil production cuts, even though actual reductions are expected to be less than the headline figure of 2 million barrels per day beginning next month.

OPEC+’s announced cut in oil production is not just limited to energy price impacts, but it has significant geopolitical issues. The White House wants to follow Congress’ lead on dealing with Saudi Arabia. The WSJ notes in an editorial today: “Biden called Saudi Arabia a ‘pariah’ during the 2020 campaign, delayed a planned arms shipment, and continues to pursue a nuclear deal with Iran that would give the Saudis’ main enemy hundreds of billions of dollars to promote terrorism and other trouble. The president had to go hat in hand to the Saudi Crown Prince in July to ask for more oil production, and all he got was a lousy fist bump.”

OPEC+ is “looking at market sentiment and fears of an impending recession and what that will do to demand, and has decided to get out ahead of the curve,” said Raad Alkadiri, an energy expert at Eurasia Group. This is a “proactive move to stop a further fall in prices,” he added.

Biden administration officials said the U.S. would release another 10 million barrels from its strategic reserve next month as part of the previously announced 180 million barrels of oil. They added the president would continue to direct releases “as appropriate.” Oil in the reserve has fallen to the lowest level since July 1984.

Russian missiles struck the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia early Thursday while Ukraine’s forces reclaimed more territory from Moscow, according to senior Ukrainian officials.

The Fed pivot had only a two-day shelf life as not one, but two Fed officials opted to bang the drum for the central bank’s current path of aggressive rate hikes Wednesday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic both moved to quell market expectations. Daly told Bloomberg TV the central bank needs to keep raising interest rates to cool inflation and that it hadn’t changed its position despite some expectations the Fed will start cutting rates next year. Bostic said in a speech that the bank should get its benchmark rate to between 4% and 4.5% by December and then pause. He isn’t arguing for a quick pivot, either, saying to people who think rate cuts are coming in 2023: “Not so fast.”

U.S. mortgage demand hits a 25-year low. Application activity fell to its slowest pace since 1997, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The drop comes as 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached 6.75%, their highest level since 2006.

EPA on Wednesday also announced that new chemicals that can be used for electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, and renewable energy will get a streamlined risk review to determine whether they can be produced in the U.S.

Dwindling Mississippi threatens shipments. The U.S. ag sector and its media love a good crisis and they have another one as a logjam of more than 100 ships, tugboats and their convoys of barges in the shrinking Mississippi River is threatening to grind trade of grains, fertilizer, metals and petroleum to a halt.

Almost half (48%) of voters said they believe the Republican Party is more prepared to address key concerns, compared to 37% who said the same about Democrats. That polling gives Republicans an 11-percentage-point lead, its biggest lead since 1946.

Karl Rove gives his Senate race predictions in his latest column for the Wall Street Journal. See Politics & Elections section.

Election Day 2022 is 33 days away. Election Day 2024 is 761 days away.

Equities today: Global stock markets were flat to weaker overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 100 points lower, but then turned slightly higher. Traders and investors are awaiting Friday’s employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is expected to come in at up 275,000. The August report showed a non-farm jobs rise of 315,000. Says the Sevens Report: The market needs to see the Fed start to accomplish the goals of 1) Declining inflation pressures, 2) A more balanced labor market and 3) A moderation of economic growth before we can credibly hope a Fed pivot is coming, and tomorrow’s jobs report will be one of the first major data points that can help further that hope (or dash it, again).” In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -0.5%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.3%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow ended down 42.45 points, 0.14%, at 30,273.87. The Nasdaq was 27.77 points lower, 0.25%, at 11,148.64. The S&P 500 declined 7.65 points, 0.20%, at 3,783.28.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn rose 1 cent to $6.84.
• Soy complex: November soybeans fell 13 3/4 cents to $13.69 3/4. December soymeal fell $3.00 to $398.50, the contract’s lowest closing price since Aug. 16. December soyoil rose 52 points to 65.54 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 1 cent to $9.02. December HRW wheat rose 1 1/2 cents to $9.90 1/4. Prices closed nearer the session lows. December spring wheat rose 5 1/2 cents to $9.81 1/2.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 497 points to 83.23 cents, the contract’s lowest close since September.
• Cattle: December live cattle gained 42.5 cents to $147.925. November feeders jumped $2.125 to $177.325.
• Hogs: December lean hogs jumped $2.075 to $76.50.
  

Ag markets today: Corn, soybean and winter wheat futures traded lower in a light overnight price action. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 10 to 12 cents lower, winter wheat futures were mostly 8 to 10 cents lower and spring wheat was narrowly mixed. Front-month crude oil futures were around 50 cents lower and the U.S. dollar index was about 350 points higher this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 203,000 in the week ended Oct. 1 from 193,000 one week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 29,000 to 219,000 in the week that ended October 1, jumping from the five-month low hit in the prior week and sharply above expectations of 203,000, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims rose by 13,254 to 167,083, with notable increases seen in Puerto Rico (+3,914) and Missouri (+3,749). The 4-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose slightly by 250 individuals from the prior week to 206,500.
• USDA Weekly Export Sales report, 8:30 a.m. ET.
• International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks on the global economic outlook ahead of the IMF’s annual meetings at 9:30 a.m. ET.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivers remarks on the global economy at 11 a.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari on the economic outlook at 9:15 am ET (livestream), Mr. Kashkari on cybersecurity at 1 p.m. ET, Chicago’s Charles Evans on the economy and monetary policy at 1 p.m. ET, governor Lisa Cook on the economic outlook at 1 p.m. ET, governor Christopher Waller on the economic outlook at 5 p.m. ET, and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester at an economics conference at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Central banks are raising interest rates at the fastest pace in more than 40 years — and signs of stress are showing, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Recent turmoil in British bond and currency markets is one. That disturbance has exposed potential risks lurking in pensions and government bond markets, which were relative oases of calm in past financial flare-ups. Major U.S. stock markets recorded their worst first nine months of a calendar year since 2002, before rallying this week. Treasury bonds, one of the world’s most widely held securities, have become harder to trade. There also are signs of strain in markets for corporate debt and concerns about emerging-market debt and energy products.

U.S. ag should end fiscal year 2022 with a trade surplus. Key figures from August trade data:

• U.S. ag exports totaled $15.46 billion vs imports of $16.84 billion for a deficit of $1.38 billion (July trade deficit was $938 million). This marked the sixth straight month where imports surpassed exports for the ag sector.
• A hefty export pace to open FY 2022 will still mean a FY 2022 surplus. Cumulative trade data through August puts agricultural exports at $182.79 billion against imports of $178.08 billion for a surplus of $4.71 billion while USDA has forecast FY 2022 exports to total $196 billion vs imports of $192 billion for a $4 billion surplus.
• For FY 2023, which began Oct. 1, USDA expects exports to ease to $193.5 billion and imports to hit another record at $197 billion for a trade deficit of $3.5 billion.
  

Ford again boosts price on base electric F-150 pickup. Ford has hiked the price of the base F-150 Lightning Pro to $51,974, after it hiked the price in August to $46.974. The company said ongoing supply chain issues, rising material costs and market factors were behind the increase. The shortages span several industries, ranging from EV materials like nickel and cobalt to components such as semiconductor chips and controls. The developments have even resulted in carmakers needing to store uncompleted vehicles, which is affecting their bottom line and adding to sticker prices across the nation. The F-150 Lightning is still way cheaper than the starting Rivian R1T ($68,575) and GMC Hummer EV ($86,645). Awaited are price tags of the Chevrolet Silverado EV and Tesla Cybertruck.

Mortgage applications hit their lowest level since 1997, which could push down home prices by as much as 20% in major markets. Mortgage applications plummeted 14.2% from one week prior in the seven days ending Friday, pushing overall applications to their lowest level since 1997, according to data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Surging rates have tacked on $337, or 15%, to the typical monthly mortgage payment over the past six weeks alone and pummeled housing demand nationwide as a result—so much that prices have started to slip from record highs in some markets over the past few weeks.

The average American 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed for a seventh straight week, to 6.75% this week. That’s the highest in 16 years.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is higher. he yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has firmed to trade around 3.76%. Global foreign-currency reserves are falling at the fastest pace on record as central banks from all over the globe intervene to support their currencies. Reserves have declined by about $1 trillion, or 7.8%, this year to $12 trillion, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started to compile the data in 2003. Crude oil futures were weaker, with US crude around $87.60 per barrel and Brent around $93.20 per barrel. Gold and silver are firmer, with gold around $1,725 per troy ounce and silver around $20.73 per troy ounce.

• U.S. gasoline prices are ticking up after a roughly 100-day decline, threatening to inflict new pain on consumers who have been grappling with widespread inflation for more than a year. Maintenance at fuel-making plants, more demand for gasoline and tight fuel supplies have contributed to a 14-day run of increasing gasoline prices.

• The weighted average freight cost of a 40-foot container on major trans-ocean trading routes went down 8.1% to $3,689 from $4,014 in the week to Oct. 6, according to the Drewry World Container Index.

• In the Midwest, low river levels are evident in the early weeks of the corn and soybean harvest. A logjam of more than 100 vessels in the falling Mississippi River is threatening to grind trade of grains, fertilizer, metals and petroleum to a halt. The largest U.S. barge operator warned customers it won’t be able to make good on deliveries. In the Southeast, it may take four to eight weeks for logistics networks to fully recover from the damage from Hurricane Ian, according to FourKites, a supply-chain visibility platform. Link to more via Bloomberg.

Shipping impacts: Export sales will increase off the PNW. Reports of trade were done there yesterday.

Another impact: Water levels on the Mississippi River have prompted Ingram Barge Company to declare force majeure due to “near-historic” low levels, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg that the company sent to customers. “A prolonged lack of significant precipitation along the Mississippi River and its primary tributaries is now actively disrupting normal operations throughout the inland waterways,” the letter said. “On many river segments, Ingram has reduced its maximum allowable barge drafts and overall tow sizes in an attempt to continue to safely operate while the inland river levels fall out.”

• Ag trade: Japan purchased 97,343 MT of milling wheat from its weekly tender, including 64,523 MT U.S. and 32,820 MT Canadian.

• NWS weather: Temperatures plunging across the Eastern and Central U.S. as strong cold front pushes southward... ...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies/High Plains and the Southwest, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible... ...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Price pressure overnight
• Ukraine’s 2023 winter grain production could fall at least 50% (details in Russia/Ukraine section)
• Russia’s southern breadbasket is dry
• Slow developing cash cattle trade
• Cash hog index continues to drop

— OPEC+ sends rebuke to Biden: 2 million barrels per day cut in oil production starting next month. So much for behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts and “talking points” to get OPEC+ to modify its now announced big 2 million barrels per day cut in oil production, about 2% of global oil production. The cartel of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia agreed to steep cuts in oil production, defying the Biden administration’s frantic efforts to avert cuts that could push up global gasoline prices and may offer a small lifeline to Russia’s battered wartime economy. In a meeting on Wednesday in Vienna, the OPEC+ group that comprises most of the world’s top oil exporters agreed to cut production, on paper, by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest slash in production since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Impact is murky. Analysts say the cartel will probably shave something like 1 million barrels off the market, since most OPEC members are already underproducing. But Goldman Sachs went further, estimating the actual production cuts at half a million barrels daily because of the gap between targets and output. Despite the lack of details about the implementation of the production cut, Goldman raised its oil price target to $110 per barrel of Brent for the final quarter of the year. JP Morgan also suggested Brent could rebound to $100 in the current quarter, following OPEC+’s move to cut.

The price of Brent crude rose more than 1.5% on Wednesday, adding to a string of gains this week, bringing prices back to levels last seen in mid-September. But Brent crude futures were down slightly at $93.27 a barrel early Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also edging lower at $87.63 a barrel. Gasoline prices have also been climbing, and on Wednesday they rose for a 15th consecutive day.

“They agreed to a larger cut on paper so they wouldn’t have to renegotiate quotas, which is always like pulling teeth,” said Matthew Reed, an expert on the oil industry and the vice president of Foreign Reports, a Washington-based consulting firm. “This is crucial. It means OPEC will take less oil off the market than the headlines suggest.”

The real reason for the OPEC+ production cut is not politics, but concerns of a looming global recession that will cut deeply into global oil demand. At a news conference following the meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said OPEC+ was acting amid signs of a downturn in the world economy that might cause demand for oil to weaken and prices to fall. “We would rather be pre-emptive than be sorry,” he said.

Adding to upward pressure on oil prices, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia may temporarily reduce output in response to a U.S.-led plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil. Elsewhere, EIA data showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.356 million barrels last week, the second consecutive drop and the biggest in five weeks.

Several senior Biden administration officials, including Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s leading energy envoy, played a role in the failed campaign to pressure OPEC+ members to avoid the cuts, as CNN reported. “This is completely not what the White House wants, and it is exactly what Russia wants,” Bill Farren-Price, the head of macro oil and gas analysis at Enverus, a research firm, told the New York Times. It also puts Saudi Arabia on a diplomatic “collision course” with the United States, he said.

Another tap of SPR? Biden administration officials said that the president would direct the Energy Department to release 10 million additional barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November as part of the roughly 180 million barrels that Biden ordered to be made available back in March. Earlier this week, the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, had told reporters the administration had no plans to continue releases after a six-month effort to release 1 million barrels a day expired as scheduled at the end of this month. “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” Jean-Pierre said on Wednesday.

The White House said in a statement that Biden was “disappointed” by the OPEC+ cuts, and said he will “continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security, and he is directing the secretary of energy to explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term.”

The U.S. is reportedly preparing to relax sanctions on Venezuela to let Chevron pump oil there, as hostilities with OPEC+ build, according to the Wall Street Journal (link).

Democratic lawmaker reaction was swift and negative. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Ct.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted: “I thought the whole point of selling arms to the Gulf States despite their human rights abuses, nonsensical Yemen War, working against U.S. interests in Libya, Sudan etc., was that when an international crisis came, the Gulf could choose America over Russia/China.”

“President Biden should make it clear that we will stop supplying the Saudis with weapons and air parts if they fleece the American people and strengthen Putin by making drastic production cuts,” Rep. Ro Khanna, a progressive Democrat from California, said of the news. “They need us far more than we need them.”

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said the president was “disappointed” by the OPEC+ grouping’s decision to cut oil production amid the energy crunch caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling the decision “shortsighted… At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices,” Sullivan and Deese said. The administration suggested that it might be receptive to draconian legislation, drafted nearly every year for decades, that would put OPEC under antitrust scrutiny.

“To the extent that prices rise, it will make it that much more challenging for Europe to proceed with its sanctions on Russian oil in December,” said Bhushan Bahree, an executive director of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Bottom line: President Biden’s approval ratings have tracked gas prices this year. His ratings bottomed out as gas prices peaked. But now they’re rising again. On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia and Russia are not only willing to work together to prop up crude markets, but they are deepening their ties despite the war in Ukraine. The cut is a big win for Moscow, which has already lost about 1 million bpd of production due to sanctions from the conflict, and faces an EU oil embargo starting in December.

— Reports: Recharging EVs using some renewable energy would trigger e-RINs. EPA will reportedly include a plan in their coming Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposed levels that will allow generation of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for charging electric vehicles (EVs) with some types of renewable energy or e-RINs. The e-RINs could start in 2024, according to Bloomberg, and could allow them to be generated when EVs are charged using biogas or methane harvested from landfills and manure ponds. It is murky as to who ould own those e-RINs under the still sketchy proposal.

EPA previously was expected to propose RFS levels for 2023, 2024, and 2025 by Nov. 16 in an agreement worked out in court. EPA is expected to soon send its proposals to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. An agency spokesman told Bloomberg the agency “intends to meet the deadlines to implement the RFS program.”

— Missouri announces biofuel incentives. A new state law offers fuel retailers a 2-cents-a-gallon incentive to sell higher blends of biodiesel and a 5-cents-a-gallon incentive for selling higher blends of ethanol. Link for details.

• Russian forces left behind heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies as they fled the Ukrainians’ rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region. Some was ready for immediate use, while some was being repaired or cannibalized for spare parts. This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Captured and abandoned Russian tanks, howitzers and fighting vehicles — quickly scrubbed of their Z tactical markers and repainted with Ukrainian crosses — are being turned against their former owners as Ukraine’s military advances in the eastern part of the country.

• Ukraine’s 2023 winter grain production could fall at least 50%. Ukraine’s winter grain sowing area for the 2023 harvest will unlikely exceed 2 million hectares and the harvest could fall by at least 50%, the head of a large Ukrainian agriculture company was quoted as saying. “The harvest of early grains (mostly wheat and barley) will be 50% to 70% less (in 2023 versus 2022). In fact, we will cover our own needs, but not everything will be so rosy with exports,” Alex Lissitsa, CEO of IMC integrated agricultural business, was quoted by Interfax Ukraine as saying. Lissitsa said a lack of funds for the planting remains a huge problem for farmers in a situation where when local grain prices fell while cost of inputs rose sharply. “I think that next year we will have a huge decline in productivity and yields, and at the end of the year we will come out quite beaten: not dead, but badly beaten,” he said.
• Putin asserts control over Ukraine nuclear plant. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government on Wednesday to take control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, as the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned that power supply to the site was “extremely fragile.” The plant is in the southern Ukrainian region also called Zaporizhzhia, one of four regions Putin formally incorporated into Russia on Wednesday in a move condemned by Kyiv as an illegal land grab. The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, will visit Moscow to discuss safety at the plant, Russian state-owned news agency TASS reported.

• Yara: Europe should cut dependency on Russia for food, fertilizers. Europe should urgently act to cut the continent’s dependency on Russian food and fertilizers and boost its own supplies, Norwegian fertilizer-maker Yara International said on Thursday. The company has as curtailed production this year due to soaring gas prices.

— Phase 2 of ERP payments. Sources say they will be more challenging than Phase I because it is intended as a catch all. Phase I was when farmers had a claim under crop insurance, NAP, or livestock disaster and USDA could just plus it up. This second phase deals with all those who did not have a claim but are still eligible for disaster where USDA does not have all of the info on file.

— Vice President Kamala Harris in minor car crash. Vice President Kamala Harris was involved in a one-car crash on a closed roadway in Washington, D.C., which the Secret Service initially misreported as a “mechanical failure,” according to a report. The Monday morning crash has sent shock waves through the Secret Service, according to insiders speaking with the Washington Post. While the vice president wasn’t injured, the nature of the accident has raised the question of how such a careless incident was able to occur within the agency.

— Covid death of Li Wenliang, the doctor China tried to silence. A New York Times video investigation reveals new details about the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, a national hero who faced censorship after sounding an early alarm on Covid-19. Link for details.

— Groups call on FTC to investigate potential price gouging by food service companies. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice are being urged to look into actions by food service companies that they maintain are monopolistic and anticompetitive behavior. In a 20-page filing with the FTC and DOJ, the groups said action needs to be taken to look at “apparent price gouging, price coordination, commercial discrimination, and other unfair and deceptive business practices by the dominant ‘broadline’ foodservice distributors.” They maintain that Covid prompted the food service companies to put “unjustifiable” price increases in place, damaging independent restaurants.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 619,879,188 with 6,552,596 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 96,552,187 with 1,061,490 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 619,765,972 doses administered, 268,373,101 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.45% of the U.S. population.

— Covid-19 boosters could prevent about 90,000 U.S. deaths this winter, but only if more people get the shots, a new analysis suggests. The study, published Wednesday by The Commonwealth Fund, said if booster vaccinations continue at their current pace, the nation could see a peak of more than 1,000 Covid-19 deaths per day this winter.

— Biden below 50% approval on every top 10 issue. President Joe Biden is underwater like his ratings-challenged predecessor. In the latest Ipsos survey, 40% approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 53% disapprove. The issue he still gets the best grade on is handling Covid-19, but that is now below 50%, at 47%. he numbers show the difficulty Biden and his party face in the midterm elections.

— Republicans hold historic polling lead on key issue. Voters are more likely to say they believe Republicans are better equipped to handle the issue they are most concerned with regardless of what that issue may be, according to a new Gallup poll. The Gallup poll asks voters to submit whatever issue they consider to be most important, leaving the question open-ended rather than multiple choice or from a list of options. Almost half (48%) of voters said they believe the Republican Party is more prepared to address those concerns, compared to 37% who said the same about Democrats. That polling gives Republicans an 11-percentage-point lead, its biggest lead since 1946. Link for details.

— Karl Rove on Senate midterm elections. Writing in the Wall Street Journal (link), Rove predicts: “The three most plausible scenarios are a 50-50 Senate, 51-49 Republican or 51-49 Democrat. A 52-48 Senate either way is possible but unlikely. My gut tells me the GOP will prevail 51-49 because of the political climate, issues and midterm swing. That may be my natural optimism, but then again, it’s tempered by my Norwegian heritage. Key races are still up in the air. The next 4 1/2 weeks will be rocky, and Nov. 8 a long night.”

• “Republicans are increasingly confident about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Five of the last six polls have Mr. Johnson ahead of Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. They’re tied in the sixth. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz is closing on Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, causing the Cook Report to shift the race to a “toss-up.” Both Republicans have risen by focusing on their opponents’ extreme views, especially on crime.”
• “Republican J.D. Vance should hang on in Ohio, bolstered by $35 million in outside spending. (Disclosure: I’m a volunteer adviser to the super PAC doing the spending.) Meanwhile, Democrats are failing to spend the sums needed to contest North Carolina and Florida.”
• “The GOP’s best pickup opportunities are Adam Laxalt in Nevada, who’s led in all five September polls, and Herschel Walker in Georgia, who’s been virtually tied with his opponent since late August. (Let’s see if his enormous reservoir of goodwill holds after the latest allegation.) Both are helped by strong GOP gubernatorial candidates.”
• “Republicans Joe O’Dea in Colorado and Tiffany Smiley in Washington state are terrific candidates running in challenging territory. If they keep at it and the midterm swing is big enough, they may pull off a November surprise. Arizona’s Blake Masters could be a contender too if he receives financial help from Mr. Trump or tech billionaire Peter Thiel, his former employer.”

— Death scrambles House race. The egal Marijuana Now candidate running in Minnesota against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, a member of the House Agriculture Committee, and Republican Tyler Kistner has died, potentially delaying the election scheduled for Nov. 8. But the office of Secretary of State Steve Simon says that the plan will be to go forward with the 2nd Congressional District election as scheduled in November. When, in 2020, 2nd District Legal Marijuana Party Now candidate Adam Weeks died shortly before the election, the election was similarly held on Election Day as scheduled. Link for details.

— The third-place finisher in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election endorsed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president who took 48% of the vote. Simone Tebet, a center-right senator, won 4% in Sunday’s poll. She said Jair Bolsonaro, the hard-right incumbent who got 43%, had brought “hate and strife” to Brazil. He will face Lula in a run-off on October 30.

— North Korea fired two more ballistic missiles off its east coast, the sixth such launch in less than a fortnight. On Thursday North Korean officials defended the blitz as “just counter-action measures,” in response to U.S. and South Korean joint military drills. Earlier, during an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting, America had accused China and Russia of providing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal “blanket protection” from stronger sanctions.

— The fan who caught Aaron Judge’s 62nd home-run ball works in finance. Cory Youmans, who is a vice president at a Dallas branch of money manager Fisher Investments, is sitting on a potential gold mine, with one prospective buyer having previously valued the ball at $2 million.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list |