OPEC+ to Consider Wednesday Its Sharpest Production Cut Since Start of Pandemic

British gov’t drops plans to cut income tax for top earners | Is Credit Suisse in financial trouble?

U.(K.) turn… British pound jumps on confirmation the U.K. gov’t will U-turn on cut to top tax rate.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, confirmed that his country’s troops had retaken two small settlements in the southern region of Kherson as well as full control of Lyman, a key logistics hub in Donetsk. Ukrainian officials say its recapture will allow the army to advance further into the Luhansk region. Meanwhile Pope Francis called on Vladimir Putin to end the “spiral of violence and death” that might ultimately lead to nuclear escalation. Russia, refused to acknowledge the retreat, describing it euphemistically as a move to “more advantageous positions.”

Russian forces have retreated from Lyman, a strategic hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk region — and one of the Ukrainian territories that Russia has illegally annexed. Since Russia now claims Donetsk as its own, Western officials said the retreat was a heavy blow to the Kremlin’s war effort.

Russia may start providing trade finance to importers of its grain as sanctions imposed on Moscow since it sent troops to Ukraine affect this financial instrument, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said.

Nord Stream pipelines no longer leaking... Natural gas has finally stopped leaking from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines after several ruptures were discovered in the lines last week, the Danish Energy Agency said yesterday.

There are reports and rumors this morning that investment bank Credit Suisse may be in financial trouble. A syndicate of banks including Barclays and Bank of America cancelled a $3.9 billion debt offering last week amid a lack of demand. Bloomberg reports a group of underwriters including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Credit Suisse took losses estimated at over $1 billion on a debt package to private equity firms amid higher yields and lower demand. Credit Suisse’s stock price has fallen to a record low and spreads on its credit default swaps have spiked, suggesting that investors are worried about it potentially defaulting. CEO Ulrich Körner fired off a memo assuring employees that the bank has a “strong capital base and liquidity position,” but it remains in a “critical moment” ahead of a massive overhaul. More below.

Biden officials float fuel export limit in meeting with refiners. Senior Biden administration officials pressed executives from some of the largest U.S. gasoline producers to curtail overseas sales during a tense meeting Friday afternoon, suggesting that without voluntary action, the government could force the industry to stockpile more fuel in U.S. tanks, Bloomberg reports.

Cargo shipowners are canceling sailings as global trade flips from backlogs to empty containers. About 40 scheduled sailings to the U.S. West Coast from Asia and 21 sailings to the East Coast from Asia have been scrapped for the two weeks starting today, according to shipping-data providers as well as customer advisories viewed by the WSJ. Typically at this time of year, an average of two to four sailings a week are canceled.

The Supreme Court opens its new term today with a new member, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, and a docket that could reshape features of American society ranging from college admissions to political redistricting. And two cases of importance to the ag sector dealing with WOTUS and California’s Proposition 12.

House Republicans write GAO Comptroller General re: foreign farmland ownership.

Don’t look for Congress to repeal the Jones Act. That’s what Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said on AgriTalk Friday when asked about the topic.

Brazil’s race for president heads to a runoff. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the leftist Workers’ Party got the most votes in Brazil’s presidential election Sunday, but not enough to avoid a runoff vote against his far-right rival, incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. With 99.5% of the votes tallied, Lula had 48.3% support and Bolsonaro 43.3%. The nine other candidates trailed far behind. The next round will take place on October 30.

U.S./Venezuela prisoner swap. Venezuela has released seven detained Americans in return for the freedom of two of President Nicolás Maduro’s relatives, who had been sentenced to 18 years in jail in the United States. President Joe Biden said the freed Americans, who included oil executives, had been wrongfully detained.

Election Day 2022 is 36 days away. Election Day 2024 is 764 days away.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings. Focus is on Friday’s jobs report for September for further clues on the central bank’s rate-hike path. In Asia, Japan +1%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China -0.6%. India -1.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -0.8%.

U.S. equities Friday: The Dow fell 500.10 points, 1.71%, at 28,725.51. The Nasdaq fell 161.89 points, 1.51%, at 10,575.62. The S&P 500 was down 54.85 points, 1.51%, at 3,585.62.

An ugly week, an ugly month, an ugly quarter. For September, the Dow tumbled 8.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 9.3% (its worst month since March 2020 during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic). The Nasdaq lost 10.5%. Quarter to date, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped up their first three-quarter losing streak since 2009, losing 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively. The Dow dropped 6.7% in the third quarter and saw a third-straight losing quarter for the first time since 2015. For the week, the major averages also posted sharp losses. The S&P 500 slid 2.9% for the week. The Dow tumbled 2.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.7%.

Agriculture markets Friday:

• Corn: December corn futures rose 8 cents to $6.77 1/2, the contract’s highest close since Sept. 22 and a gain of 3/4 cents for the week.
• Soy complex: November soybeans plunged 46 cents to 13.64 3/4, down 62 cents for the week and the contract’s lowest closing price since July 26. December soymeal fell $4.20 to $403.00. December soyoil fell 230 points to 61.56 cents.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat gained 25 1/4 cents to $9.21 1/2, up 41 cents for the week and the contract’s highest closing price since June 29. December HRW wheat rose 24 3/4 cents to $9.91 1/2, up 41 cents for the week. December spring wheat climbed 16 cents to $9.82, up 32 3/4 cents for the week.
• Cotton: December cotton rose 18 points to 85.34 cents, down 720 points for the week.
• Cattle: December live cattle fell 72.5 cents to $147.05, down $1.50 for the week. November feeder cattle fell $3.20 to $174.625, down $3.625 for the week. Cash cattle trended weaker, and Choice beef cutout values fell $1.26 early Friday to $244.82, an 18-month low.
• Hogs: December lean hogs rose 50 cents to $76.225, still down $6.575 on the week.
  

Ag markets today: Corn and wheat futures traded solidly higher overnight, while soybeans favored the upside in two-sided trade. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading around 6 cents higher, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat futures were 8 to 11 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around $3.50 higher and the U.S. dollar index is about 250 points higher this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

Gold

On tap today:

• S&P Global’s U.S. manufacturing index is expected to hold at 51.8 in September, unchanged from a preliminary reading. (9:45 a.m. ET)
• Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index is expected to slide to 52 in September from 52.8 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
• U.S. construction spending for August is expected to fall 0.2% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
• USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET.
• USDA Crop Progress report, 4 p.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic opening remarks at a tech conference at 9:05 a.m. ET, and New York’s John Williams to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce at 3 p.m. ET.
• President Biden and first lady Jill Biden will travel to Puerto Rico today — and Florida on Wednesday — to view hurricane devastation. A White House official says Biden says “will announce more than $60 million in funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to shore up levees, strengthen flood walls, and create a new flood warning system to help Puerto Rico become better prepared for future storms.”
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins his trip to Latin America.

Full-price food inflation. In U.S. supermarkets, toilet paper and noodles are back in stock, but one prepandemic staple has yet to fully return: discounts, reports the Wall Street Journal (link). With food inflation running at the highest rate in more than 40 years, American shoppers are finding less relief from deals like “buy one, get one free” promotions, or 99-cent two-liter bottles of soda, according to supermarket executives and analysts. Food makers, which typically provide funding to supermarkets to support discounts and special sales, said ongoing shortages and supply-chain problems are limiting their production and leaving fewer products available to be put on sale.

Credit Suisse’s new chief has asked investors for less than 100 days to deliver a new turnaround strategy. Turbulent markets are making that feel like a long time. The cost of insuring the firm’s bonds against default climbed about 15% last week to levels not seen since 2009, as shares touched a new record low. Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner reassured staff last week that the bank has a “strong capital base and liquidity position” and told employees that he will be sending them a regular update until the firm announces a new strategic plan on Oct. 27. Credit Suisse’s market capitalization dropped to around 10 billion Swiss francs, meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders.

Credit Suisse has given investors reasons to worry over the years, the New York Times reports. “It’s principally a question of risk management: The firm took hits from the collapses of the investment firm Archegos, which cost it $5.5 billion, and of the lender Greensill, which led to another $1.7 billion in losses. Both scandals led to questions about Credit Suisse’s risk management, whose weaknesses were confirmed by an internal report (link).”

Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s chancellor, dropped his government’s plan to abolish the 45% bracket for highest-earning taxpayers. Both he and the new prime minister, Liz Truss, had spent the weekend insisting they would not buckle under the fierce protestations of senior Conservatives and the markets—and would ride out gory opinion polls. The pound bounced slightly, to around $1.13.

On Tuesday, Australia is expected to implement one more outsized interest-rate increase. House prices in Sydney fell for an eighth straight month in September.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is U.S. dollar index is about 250 points higher this morning. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is weaker, trading around 3.71%, with a weaker tone in global government bond yields. WTI crude prices surged 4.7% to over $83.20 a barrel early Monday as OPEC+ considers cutting production by 1M bbl/day or more at the group’s meeting this Wednesday. Brent is around $88.50 per barrel. Gold and silver futures are firmer, with gold around $1,673 per troy ounce and silver around $19.44 per troy ounce.

• U.S. policy makers aren’t likely to take action to slow the dollar’s rapid rise despite rising risks of global financial turmoil, analysts say, largely because a strong greenback helps fight domestic inflation, the WSJ reports (link). The U.S. dollar has soared in value as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight the highest U.S. inflation in decades and investors move money into dollar-denominated assets. The dollar’s strengthening relative to other currencies puts pressure on many other countries around the world, boosting the costs of imports priced in dollars and servicing dollar-denominated debts. This is particularly difficult for many developing economies that struggle with large debts and import much of their fuels, food and other commodities.

• Ocean carriers are canceling dozens of sailings on the world’s busiest routes during what is normally their peak season, the latest sign of the economic whiplash hitting companies as inflation weighs on global trade and consumer spending, according to the Wall Street Journal (link). The October cancellations are a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, when scarce shipping space pushed freight rates higher and carriers’ profits to record levels. Trans-Pacific shipping rates have plummeted roughly 75% from year-ago levels. The transportation industry is grappling with weaker demand as big retailers cancel orders with vendors and step up efforts to cut inventories.

• Iron ore falls to 10-month low. Prices for iron ore cargoes with a 63.5% iron content for delivery into Tianjin fell to $98 per tonne, equaling the 10-month low hit twice during September amid further concerns of low demand for steel and industrial inputs in top consumer China ahead of their week-long holiday.

• Palm oil price gains, but outlook murky. Malaysian palm oil futures were recovering from an over 1-1/2-low reached in September, amid prospects of more robust demand from top buyer China due to easing coronavirus-induced restrictions. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for September rose by roughly 10% compared to August, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said, while independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported a similar rise for that period. Still, concerns about oversupply and mounting fears about a global recession-driven demand downturn should limit any significant upside momentum. Dorab Mistry, director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, warned that Malaysian palm oil prices could plunge by more than 30% by year-end. Meanwhile, rival Indonesia’s palm oil exports are poised to surge in the year’s second half after the country scrapped export levies.

• Hurricane Ian will likely weigh on U.S. economic growth through the end of 2022, economists say. Beyond that, the rebuilding and recovery will nudge up economic output over the coming years.

• Natural disasters are common to Florida. According to FEMA data, Florida has declared more disasters since 1953 than all but four other states. Here’s where it ranks:

• Texas: 371 total, 258 fires
• California: 360 total, 278 fires
• Oklahoma: 219 total, 106 fires
• Washington: 192 total, 128 fires
• Florida: 171 total, 67 fires, 52 hurricanes

The state has been a top recipient of FEMA funds in recent years. Of the $45 billion in non-COVID disaster relief distributed by FEMA between 2017 and 2020, Florida took in the second-largest haul, according to an analysis by Lending Tree. The top five recipient states were:

• Texas: $7.7 billion
• Florida: $6.3 billion
• California: $4 billion
• North Carolina: $1.3 billion
• Georgia: $600 million
  

• NWS weather: Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions continue for the Mid-Atlantic as storm system churns just offshore... ...Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the Four Corners region... ...Above average temperatures forecast for the Plains and Midwest as well as the Great Basin and West Coast.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Firmer tone to start the week
• Concerns for credit sector mounting
• Russia may finance grain exports (see Russia/Ukraine section)
• August soy crush, ethanol grind expected to be down from July but up from year-ago
• Heavy rainfall in October could threaten India’s crops
• Strategie Grains raises EU rapeseed, sunseed crop forecasts
• Wholesale beef prices still struggling
• Hog traders remain pessimistic

— Summary: On Saturday, Russian forces retreated from Lyman — a strategic city for its operations in the east — just a day after Moscow’s annexation of the region, which has been declared illegal by the West. The loss of Lyman “could turn into a cascading series of defeats for the Russians,” retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation. “What we might be here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine. … They must really be at a breaking point.” McMaster, who served as one of President Donald Trump’s national security advisers, added that the United States should be communicating to Putin that “if you use a nuclear weapon, it’s a suicide weapon.” Russia’s pullout from Lyman “represents a significant political setback” for Moscow, Britain’s Defense Ministry said Sunday, “given that it is located within … a region Russia supposedly aimed to ‘liberate’ and has attempted to illegally annex.” Within Russia, the Lyman retreat prompted another wave of public criticism of the country’s military leadership, the ministry added.

• Russia’s annexation announcement was met with quick announcements and sanctions from other countries:
• • Members of the G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States – and the European Union have vowed to never recognize Russian sovereignty over the regions and to impose sanctions on Russia.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington would place visa restrictions on 910 individuals in Russia and Belarus, while a Biden administration official said the White House would impose “swift and severe costs” on Russia.
  • The British government said it would implement services sanctions and an export ban that target “Russian economic vulnerabilities.”
• As if on cue, some Russians raised threats of nuclear weapons on the battlefield:
  • Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechneya, in an angry statement slamming Russian generals in the wake of the withdrawal from Lyman, said it was time for the Kremlin to make use of every weapon at its disposal. “In my personal opinion we need to take more drastic measures, including declaring martial law in the border territories and using low-yield nuclear weapons,” Kadyrov said on his Telegram channel. “There is no need to make every decision with the Western American community in mind.”
  • Last week, Dmitry Medvedev, who served as Russia’s president between 2008 and 2012, discussed nuclear weapons use on his Telegram channel, saying it was permitted if the existence of the Russian state was threatened by an attack even by conventional forces. “If the threat to Russia exceeds our established threat limit, we will have to respond … this is certainly not a bluff,” he wrote.
  • Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday cautioned Russia against following through with escalatory nuclear threats, which he said were “irresponsible.” “Nuclear saber-rattling is not the kind of thing that we would expect to hear from leaders of large countries with capability,” he said on CNN. Austin said he expected Ukrainian forces to continue its counteroffensive to recapture all of their country’s territory. “I don’t think that’s going to stop, and we will continue to support them in their efforts.”
• Nord Stream pipelines no longer leaking. Natural gas has finally stopped leaking from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines after several ruptures were discovered in the lines last week, the Danish Energy Agency said yesterday. Although a cause has not been formally identified, political leaders in Europe and the U.S. have suggested that the explosions that caused the ruptures were an act of sabotage, and much of the speculation about responsibility has focused on Russia. A spokesman for Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, dismissed the notion of Russian sabotage as “stupid” and suggested that the U.S. had been behind the attacks.
• Ukraine applied to join NATO. Yesterday, nine European leaders expressed support for the bid, which is likely to face hurdles.
• Russia may finance grain exports. Russia may start providing trade finance to importers of its grain as sanctions imposed on Moscow since it sent troops to Ukraine affect this financial instrument, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said. Russia is working with Eximbank and the Russian agency for export credit and investment insurance “to provide financing to foreign companies for the purchase of our products,” Patrushev told the RBC business daily. “This will give us the opportunity to sell large amounts. Because there is also a problem with settlements so far,” he added. Some importers of Russian grain are currently paying in rubles or their local currency, and the number of such deals is rising every month, Patrushev said.
  

— House Republicans write GAO Comptroller General re: foreign farmland ownership. House Ag Committee ranking member G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), Republican leader on the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, in a letter (link) to GAO Comptroller General Gene Dodaro, asked the General Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a study addressing the following:

1. What is known about the extent of and trends in foreign investment in U.S. agricultural land (e.g., by country of investor, by state, by type of land)?
2. How does the Farm Service Agency collect data ona foreign investment in U.S. agricultural land and what steps are taken to ensure data reliability? How have USDA’s data collection methods changed since AFIDA was enacted in 1978?
3. What procedures are in place to ensure proper disclosure of acquired agricultural land by a foreign person or entity and does USDA have a process to ensure accurate disclosure of the transfer or sale of such lands?
4. Do the current standards for filing under AFIDA ensure that land acquired by a foreign person or entity through a U.S. chartered company or corporation is accurately disclosed as a foreign investment in agricultural land?
5. How, if at all, does the U.S. government use the data on foreign investment in U.S. agricultural land to ensure the land is used for its intended purpose and does not pose a threat to national security?
6. What improvements or policy options, including regarding national security, could be made to strengthen reporting of foreign investment in agricultural land?
7. Are there other Departments or Agencies that USDA is or should be partnering with to ensure accurate disclosure of foreign owned agricultural land?

Rep. Thompson said: “Foreign ownership and investment in U.S. agricultural land has nearly doubled in the past decade. This growing trend has elevated concerns regarding national security in a time of uncertainty that is already compounded by challenges to our supply chain infrastructure, high input costs for farmers, and geopolitical pressures. It is critical for Congress to have a thorough understanding of foreign investment in our nation’s agricultural land.”

“China’s ownership of U.S. farmland is a threat to our food security and national security,” noted Rep. Comer. “An affordable, reliable food supply is critical to our nation’s well-being and prosperity, and we must ensure America maintains control of our nation’s resources. We are calling on the Government Accountability Office to report on the scope of this threat to our food supply to inform Congress how we can best protect the security of the American people. Americans need transparency about the federal government’s efforts to address this growing problem.”

The letter was signed by scores of other House Republicans.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has noted that foreign ownership of U.S. land increased by 2.4 million farm acres in 2020. If this trend continues, it will contribute to unfair competition for young and beginning farmers who seek to buy land. Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Grassley introduced the “Farmland Security Act,” to require more disclosure by foreign entities about the purchase of U.S. farmland. The bill would require USDA to increase reporting on foreign investments in the U.S., “including the impact foreign ownership has on family farms, rural communities and the domestic food supply.” USDA also would be required to develop an interactive public database with real-time updates on disclosures of foreign land purchases. Some 14 states restrict or prohibit foreign ownership of farmland, though none outright forbid it, according to a memo last November by the Congressional Research Service (link).

Acreage of foreign-owned cropland (including forests and pastures) by county. (USDA data mapped by The Daily Yonder for the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting.)

— DMC payments still triggered for August. Payments under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program will be triggered for August for Tier 1, but no payments will be targeted for Tier 2, based on the difference between the national all milk price and the national average feed cost (margin). The national average margin for August is $8.08 per hundredweight (cwt), triggering Tier 1 payments for those with margin coverage levels of $8.50 ($0.42 per cwt), $9 ($0.92 per cwt), and $9.50 ($1.42 per cwt).

— The Supreme Court begins its 2022-23 term today following the formal investiture ceremony late last week for Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman on the bench. Check The Week Ahead (link) for some background on two key cases important for the ag sector. Links to major media coverage of the upcoming cases: NYT | WSJ | CNN | Politico | SCOTUSblog

The court is expected to narrowly define waters of the US, or WOTUS. Environmentalists fear such a ruling will undercut the federal government’s ability to protect waterways, while businesses groups say they would welcome a clear definition of the rule. The Biden administration is planning to issue new WOTUS regulations that will be “complementary” to the outcome of the case, Sackett v. EPA. House Republicans requested the Biden administration share all pending and expected WOTUS-related rulemakings by Tuesday, along with the specific congressional authority for each rulemaking.

Meanwhile, there still hasn’t been any report released publicly on who leaked the internal draft opinion in the Dobbs case.

Members of the Supreme Court pose for a photo during Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s formal investiture ceremony on Sept. 30. (Fred Schilling/U.S. Supreme Court via AP)

— China’s markets are closed for Golden Week. It began on Saturday, Oct. 1 and ends on Friday, Oct. 7. The Golden Week in is the name given to three separate 7-day or 8-day national holidays which were implemented in 2000. This is when most businesses close, and many take the chance to travel and return to their hometown (if local Covid-19 regulations allow). Authorities warned against travel over fears of an embarrassing Covid-19 outbreak before a key leadership meeting that begins Oct. 16. Schools in Shanghai — where millions endured a grueling two-month lockdown earlier this year — have warned students or staff not to leave the city of 25 million during the weeklong holiday, while Beijing is calling on visitors to register with local government offices and take repeated PCR tests to prove they’re virus-free. On Friday, the government designated 1,619 locations nationwide as medium to high-risk areas, meaning they were under some form of Covid restrictions.

— China turns away from U.S. and towards Russia for LNG imports. The Wire looked at China’s changing energy trade and says Beijing’s once hefty imports of U.S. fossil fuels are dramatically lower due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the expiration of the U.S./China Phase 1 trade deal that was signed back in 2020. A recent analysis of U.S./China trade data (link) by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a Washington D.C.-based nonprofit, shows how the energy trade has changed over the last year.

— India is creating a digital platform that combines 16 ministries, in a $1.2 trillion bid to snatch factories away from China. The mega project, called PM Gati Shakti, will offer investors and companies a one-stop solution for design of projects, seamless approvals, and easier estimation of costs. It hopes that fast-tracking projects will give the country an advantage, especially with China still largely closed to the outside world. Link to details via Bloomberg.

— N.Y. wants to ban sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said she is asking state regulators to expedite new rules that will enable New York to follow in California’s footsteps and ban the sale of all new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035.

— Biden officials float fuel export limit in meeting with refiners. Senior Biden administration officials pressed executives from some of the largest U.S. gasoline producers to curtail overseas sales during a tense meeting Friday afternoon, suggesting that without voluntary action, the government could force the industry to stockpile more fuel in U.S. tanks, Bloomberg reports (link). Although billed as a discussion of refining operations and fuel supplies in the wake of Hurricanes Fiona and Ian, the storms were not a focus, according to people familiar with the matter. Link for details.

— Biden consider Cold War-era law for clean energy. The Energy Department is mulling ways to boost the domestic production of clean energy technology such as solar panels, transformers and hydrogen fuel cells using the powers of a Cold War-era law once invoked by former President Donald Trump to prop up money-losing coal plants. The agency said in a notice Monday it is seeking public input on how to use the Defense Production Act to speed up production of technology for grid reliance and clean-energy deployment.

— Big restaurant chains are joining to spend millions of dollars to try to overturn a new California law that could set the state’s minimum wage for the fast food industry as high as $22 an hour next year, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). The “Save Local Restaurants” coalition said Friday it has raised around $12.7 million to fight the law, known as the FAST Recovery Act.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 618,079,389 with 6,546,973 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 96,397,899 with 1,059,605 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 619,765,972 doses administered, 268,373,101 have received at least one vaccine, or 81.45% of the U.S. population.

— Election pundits could be off track again if polls again go awry. Michael Barone, a noted political analyst, says this year, “many firms have been surprisingly tardy in switching from registered voter to likely voter samples, even as early voting has started in some states. As is usual, the narrower group of likely voters tends to be more Republican, as is suggested by the Republican advantage this year in primary turnout. As National Review’s Jim Geraghty points out, the current generic polls that sample likely voters show Republicans ahead by 2.8 points.” That’s the case with the Sept. 18-21 ABC/Washington Post poll showing registered voters favoring Republican House candidates by an insignificant 47% to 46% margin, but likely voters favoring them by 51% to 46%. “More startlingly,” notes Barone, “in congressional districts rated as competitive, registered voters favored Republicans by 55% to 34%. If that’s so, Republicans will make much greater gains than suggested by the currently tied generic vote.”

House: Democrats currently hold 220 seats and Republicans have 212, with three vacancies, meaning Republicans need a net gain of a handful of seats to flip the House in their favor. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report estimates that Republicans can pick up between 10 to 20 seats in November. “It’s an unusual midterm because Biden is not the only focus of voters,” Wasserman said, pointing to abortion and former President Donald Trump as also being on voters’ minds. But Karl Rove, writing in the Wall Street Journal last week, said “the problem for Democrats is that abortion and climate are less important to voters than pocketbook and safety concerns.” He also noted that swing voters are another problem for Democrats. Independents are closer in their opinions on major issues to the GOP. While Democrats and some election pundits claim special elections earlier this year showed abortion helps them and hurts the GOP, Rover said “It’s likely to affect some races this fall, but on the margin and only if the candidate sounds extreme.” Of the 30 seats that are rated tossups, Democrats are defending 21 and Republicans are defending nine. Rove says “it’s highly likely the GOP wins most of the competitive races and takes the House. And there will be surprises — good and bad — for each side. Candidate quality matters and both parties nominated some knuckleheads.” Rove’s House prediction: “Republicans are likely to gain closer to 20 than 25. But that’s partly because the GOP got a head start in 2020 by picking up 14 House seats. A net gain of 20 seats this fall would give Republicans 233 — the GOP had 230 in 1995 when Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) was elected speaker.”

— Note this from Nate Cohn of the New York Times: “I asked my friend Dave Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, whether he thought Democrats would appear to lead in the race for the House today if there were robust polling averages in every district, as there are in the Senate. He said they would, with Democrats leading the polls “in maybe 220 to 225 seats,” more than the 218 needed for a majority. Link for details.

— Who will go first in the 2024 primary election? Democrats are debating the order. Iowa has been the first state on the calendar for decades. Now, New Hampshire and Nevada are jockeying to move to the front of the line. South Carolina, Michigan and Minnesota are also in the mix. Link to USA Today info.

— California: Republican Rick Caruso gaining on Democratic Rep. Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll: Among registered voters, Bass leads Caruso, 34% to 31% — though Bass’ lead jumps to 46% to 31% among likely voters. Link to more via the Los Angeles Times.

— Bolsonaro and Lula head to second round in Brazil’s presidential election. Leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a plurality of votes among the field of 11 candidates, the Superior Electoral Court said, but not enough to defeat right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the first round Sunday. They will duke it out in a second and final round on Oct. 30.

— Congress is out until Nov. 14.

— Don’t look for Congress to repeal the Jones Act. That’s what Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said on AgriTalk Friday when asked about the topic. After facing pressure from both political parties, the Department of Homeland Security temporarily waived the Jones Act, which requires goods shipped between American ports be delivered by ships built domestically with American owners and crews, to allow for a BP PLC-owned vessel to deliver diesel fuel to Puerto Rico.

— Pelosi: Florida farmers need immigrants ‘to pick the crops.’ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Florida farmers need immigrants to pick crops, stating that there is a shortage of workers in the United States as she called for comprehensive immigration reform. Pelosi spoke during a press conference on Friday about border security, stating that while “we have a responsibility to secure our border, we also have a responsibility to recognize the importance of newcomers to our nation.” Pelosi alluded to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republican governors sending migrants who cross the southern border to cities such as New York City, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and Martha’s Vineyard. “You see, in Florida, some of the farmers and growers say, ‘Why are you shipping these immigrants up north? We need them to pick the crops down here,’” Pelosi said. There was quick response from Republicans, with the Republican National Committee (RNC) turning to social media to express disdain over the appearance that the speaker believes immigrants are in the U.S. just to pick crops. “Nancy Pelosi thinks immigrants should be picking crops,” the RNC Latinos account tweeted. “When Democrats show you their true colors, believe them.”

— Venezuela released seven Americans after President Biden agreed to grant clemency to two nephews of the country’s first lady who had been convicted on drug charges.

— The National Archives has told the House Oversight Committee that certain presidential records from the Trump administration remain outstanding, citing information that some White House staff used non-official electronic systems to conduct official business.

— Kim Kardashian paid $1.26 million to settle charges by the SEC for promoting the cryptocurrency EthereumMax without disclosing the fact that she was being paid for the promotion. Kardashian, who also agreed not to promote any crypto assets for three years, received $250,000 to promote the cryptocurrency on her Instagram account.

— Court refuses to halt U.S. Sugar, Imperial Sugar deal while on appeal. A U.S. appeals court rejected a request by the gov’t to halt the purchase of Imperial Sugar Company by U.S. Sugar while the U.S. gov’t appeals a court ruling that allowed the transaction to proceed. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in Philadelphia issued an order refusing to put the deal on hold while it hears arguments over whether the transaction should be allowed to proceed. The Department of Justice (DOJ) is appealing a U.S. District Court ruling that allowed the transaction to proceed after a judge rejected the U.S. government’s claim that it would harm U.S. consumers.

— 125 people died after an Indonesian soccer match. In one of the world’s worst sports stadium tragedies, 125 people died after a match between Arema FC and Persebaya FC on Saturday. After Arema (the home team) lost, police fired tear gas at rioting fans who had come onto the pitch, leading to panic and a run for the exits. Indonesian President Joko Widodo suspended the soccer league and ordered an investigation.

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