Odds Declining Again for New Farm Bill This Year as Funding, Policy Differences Mount

U.S. corn prices cheapest for exports | Vilsack on farm bill, biofuel issues | China update

Jim Wiesemeyer

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January 23, 2024 09:23 AM

U.S. corn prices cheapest for exports | Vilsack on farm bill, biofuel issues | China update

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

FAA recommends airlines check door plugs on additional models of Boeing planes
Johnson & Johnson reports strong fourth-quarter earnings
Fed’s inspector general clears former officials of improper trading
Top oil trader warns OPEC+ may need to cut output further
Share of electric vehicles leased growing for non-Tesla dealers
Bank of Japan maintains rates with future changes expected
Ag markets today
Ag trade update
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

Israel’s army said 24 soldiers were killed in fighting in southern Gaza
U.S., British forces carry out large-scale strikes on Houthis in Yemen
Israeli gov’t proposes pause in fighting in exchange for hostage release

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

Russia is China’s top oil supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia in 2023
Russian missile strikes have struck Ukraine’s major cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv
EU to allow wider measures to control Ukraine grain imports

POLICY

Supreme Court sided with the Biden administration in a border dispute with Texas
Are odds of no new farm bill this year rising?
Vilsack warns against nutrition program cuts in farm bill
Slow but steady increase in ERP Phase 2 payments

CHINA

Chinese policymakers considering taking steps to stabilize stock market: Bloomberg
China’s growing concerns over food security
China to expand use of GM soybeans, corn ‘in orderly manner’ said Pan Wenbo, director of the planting management department at the ag ministry.
China to further expand oilseed production to reduce imports
China’s sow herd drops more than 5% in 2023
Magnitude-7.1 earthquake strikes China’s Xinjiang region

TRADE POLICY

Growing concerns of trade war between EU and China

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

More than one of every six ratepayers are behind on energy
Biofuels and climate markets could help preserve farms: Vilsack
Biomass-based diesel production reaches 4 billion gallons in 2023

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

EU countries see lab-grown meat as threat to traditional farming
H-E-B planning to expand its milk processing plant in San Antonio, Texas

HEALTH UPDATE

Blood test that screens for Alzheimer’s may be a step closer to reality

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

New Hampshire GOP primary today: Crucial showdown for Trump and Nikki Haley
N.D. Republican Governor Doug Burgum will not seek a third term as governor

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

EPA proposing new guidelines for discharges from meat & poultry processing firms
SCOTUS to decide decade-long Rio Grande water dispute
Argentine workers to strike against president’s economic reforms
Office of refugee resettlement spent $20 billion welcoming illegals

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 60 points lower. In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +2.6%. China +0.5%. India -1.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.1%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow and S&P 500 both raced to new record finishes to open the week and the Nasdaq was at its highest point in nearly a year. The Dow was up 138.01 points, 0.36%, at 38,001.81. The Nasdaq gained 49.32 points, 0.32%, at 15,360.29. The S&P 500 rose 10.62 points, 0.22%, at 4,850.43.

— Boeing update. The Federal Aviation Administration is recommending that airlines check the door plugs on additional models of Boeing planes after the panel blew off of a Boeing Max 9 jet in midair earlier this month.

— Johnson & Johnson reports strong fourth-quarter earnings. Johnson & Johnson, often regarded as a health sector indicator, has announced its fourth-quarter earnings, narrowly surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. The company experienced significant growth in its pharmaceutical and medical technology (medtech) businesses. Total sales for the final quarter of the year increased by 7.3% compared to the same period in 2022. CFO Joseph Wolk highlighted that Johnson & Johnson is benefiting from a resurgence in older adults scheduling non-urgent surgeries, a trend that had declined during the pandemic. These earnings underscore the company’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the challenges posed by the healthcare landscape.

— Fed’s inspector general clears former officials of improper trading. A report by the Federal Reserve’s inspector general has cleared two former officials, Eric Rosengren (former Boston Fed president) and Robert Kaplan (former Dallas Fed chief), of any improper trading during 2020 when the central bank took steps to stabilize markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The report concluded that neither Rosengren nor Kaplan violated any laws or rules with their trades during that period. However, the report did find that both individuals failed to properly file disclosure forms, which created the appearance of a conflict of interest. Despite being cleared of improper trading, these lapses in disclosure raised concerns about transparency and potential conflicts of interest in their financial transactions. Both Rosengren and Kaplan resigned from their positions in 2021.

— Energy prices: WTI crude oil futures on Monday jumped to new intraday highs for 2024 and settled at the best level since the week of Christmas, closing with a gain of 2.42%. Brent futures topped $80/barrel in intraday trade before retreating to close just below that psychological threshold with a still-respectable gain of 1.91%.

Today, oil retreated as ample global crude supplies offset mounting Mideast tensions after the U.S. and UK launched more airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Global benchmark Brent dropped below $80 a barrel.

— Ag markets today: Corn, soybeans and wheat are mildly favoring the upside this morning after trading narrowly on either side of unchanged overnight. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading a penny higher, soybeans were mostly 2 to 4 cents higher and wheat futures were 1 to 2 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around 65 cents lower, and the U.S. dollar index was more than 100 points higher.

Wholesale beef prices resume march higher. After two days of declines to end last week, Choice boxed beef prices firmed $3.17 on Monday, while Select rose $3.53. But the slowdown in movement to only 78 loads on Monday suggests retailers may be turning more selective with their purchases as Choice beef nears the $300.00 level. Cutting margins remain in the red but the wholesale beef strength should encourage packers to more actively bid for cattle after buying a historically low 38,000 head in the negotiated cash market last week.

Pork cutout back above $90. The pork cutout value firmed $1.61 on Monday to $90.17, marking the first time it has been above $90.00 since Nov. 6 of last year. Rising wholesale pork prices are strengthening packer margins, giving them incentive to keep raising cash hog bids. The CME lean hog index is up another 34 cents to $68.40 (as of Jan. 19), the ninth rise in the last 10 days.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: March corn rose 1/4 cent to $4.45 3/4, a low-range close.
Soy complex: March soybeans rallied 11 cents before closing at $12.24 1/4, near session highs. March soymeal closed 70 cents lower to $355.8, after trading as low as $351.4. March soyoil futures surged 126 points to 48.16 cents, closing near session highs.
Wheat: March SRW wheat closed up 3 1/4 cents at $5.96 1/2 and nearer the session high. March HRW wheat fell 1 cent to $6.07 and near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rallied 5 cents to $7.00 1/2.
Cotton: March cotton rose 88 points to 84.83 cents and marked the highest close since Oct. 30.
Cattle: April live cattle closed down 47 1/2 cents at $176.90 and nearer the session high. March feeder cattle fell 67 1/2 cents to $231.275 and nearer the session high.
Hogs: February lean hogs rallied 17.5 cents to $70.925 following choppy trade.

— Quotes of note:

Top oil trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. has warned that OPEC+ may need to cut output further. But Bloomberg notes that “Riyadh may have its work cut out just holding together its coalition-of-the-willing. For example, the United Arab Emirates carved out an exemption in the latest OPEC+ deal to modestly increase supplies as it pushes to deploy new additions in capacity. Abu Dhabi may not want to hold back forever.” Then there’s Russia. The country also received special treatment to make supply cuts in the form of either crude or fuel exports — “a concession that helps blur how faithfully Moscow is adhering to its limits.”
Investing Group Leader Victor Dergunov expects the equity market rally to continue, predicting that the S&P500 could reach 5,200-5,500 and the Nasdaq around 18,000-20,000 before year-end.
59%: The share of electric vehicles sold through U.S. dealerships in December that were leased rather than bought outright, according to data firm Edmunds — the highest share in three years. Importantly, that calculation excludes market leader Tesla, which sells directly to consumers. Its leasing share is at the other end of the spectrum: It fell to 2% of deliveries in the fourth quarter, the lowest in at least four years.

— Bank of Japan maintains rates with future changes expected. During its January meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and maintain 10-year bond yields around 0%. This decision was made by unanimous vote, aligning with expectations. BoJ Governor Ueda has refrained from specifying the exact timeline for discontinuing the world’s last negative interest rate policy, but he has strongly implied that such a move is soon. This suggests that the BoJ is preparing for potential changes in its monetary policy in the coming months, which will be closely watched by financial markets and analysts.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer, with the euro and yen both weaker against the dollar. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was firmer, around 4.12%, while there was a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures turned lower, with U.S. crude around $74.10 per barrel and Brent around $79.35 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were higher ahead of US trading with gold around $2,028 per troy ounce and silver around $22.44 per troy ounce.

— “U.S. corn remains the cheapest corn for the export market through April,” says grain trader and analyst Richard Crow. He says: “The interior corn market suggests some domestic pricing may be taking place. The export demand is the marginal demand, but the domestic market is the largest user. Cattle numbers on feed are decreasing, hog numbers are declining, and poultry is steady. As we advance, the new crop acreage will get attention. It is the idea of growing world stocks of corn with a large U.S. new crop driving the bear corn story. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated corn acreage will be down 1.5 million acres next year.”

— Ag trade update: Japan is seeking 88,710 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of corn from Brazil or Argentina.

— NWS weather outlook: Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding will exist through Thursday morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley... ...A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... ...Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be expected by the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of the country.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Grains mildly firmer this morning
• Cordonnier leaves South American crop estimates unchanged
• Canada expects smaller wheat seedings but slightly bigger production
• Australia’s crop production boosted by El Niño-defying rains

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT

— Israel’s army said 24 soldiers were killed in fighting in southern Gaza, the biggest single-day death toll since the war began in October. An army spokesman said 21 troops died in an explosion after a grenade struck a tank, while three others died in a separate attack. More than 25,000 people have been killed by Israeli forces in the war, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Russia has become China’s top oil supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia in 2023. This marks the first time Russia has held the top spot since 2018. This shift in oil supply highlights the limited success of Western efforts to restrict funds to the Kremlin in response to the conflict in Ukraine.

— Russian missile strikes have struck Ukraine’s major cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv, resulting in casualties and damaging a gas pipeline in Kharkiv, as reported by Ukrainian authorities. Amid this, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, dismissed Western-backed peace initiatives as futile during a UN Security Council meeting in New York.

— EU to allow wider measures to control Ukraine grain imports. The European Commission is looking into ways of allowing eastern EU member states to restrict ag imports from Ukraine as it extends trade liberalization with Kyiv. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the commission was about to present a proposal for the new period to June 2025, considering the sensitivities of agricultural sectors in eastern member states of the bloc. The existing arrangement does include safeguards, but these only apply if the whole EU market is affected. “We’re looking at the best ways to do it, including the possibility of having the safeguards not only in the case of disturbances to the EU market as a whole, but also in case of disturbances in a single member state or a few member states,” Dombrovskis said. One EU diplomat said the plan would allow affected EU members to act quickly for an initial four months, subject to a Commission assessment within three weeks. Ukraine would also be encouraged to align more with EU standards.

POLICY UPDATE

— Are the odds of no new farm bill this year rising? Yes. It looks like the Senate is going a two-fold approach... a Stabenow bill that presents farmers with a hard and controversial choice between crop insurance or the traditional farm programs, and a GOP bill that is more traditional with higher reference prices. Add to that USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack’s and congressional Democrats’ line in the sand against any changes to the Thrifty Food Plan, the calculation used to determine Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, language that is being pushed by some Republicans.

— USDA Secretary Vilsack warns against nutrition program cuts in farm bill. Vilsack has been vocal about the importance of nutrition programs in the upcoming farm bill, urging lawmakers to think creatively and consider the potential consequences of cutting these programs. Speaking to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) in Salt Lake City, Utah, Vilsack emphasized that cutting nutrition programs could pose challenges in achieving a bipartisan farm bill. Vilsack also expressed concerns about diverting funds from nutrition programs to bolster the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. He warned that such a move could jeopardize the farm bill’s prospects.

To address legitimate concerns within farmer safety net programs, reference prices, disaster assistance, and crop insurance, Vilsack suggested using authority from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). However, lawmakers traditionally consider writing the legislative details of the farm bill their responsibility, while program administration falls under the administration’s purview.

— Slow but steady increase in ERP Phase 2 payments. Payments made under Phase 2 of the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) have continued to rise gradually. As of Jan. 21, the payments have reached a total of $879.14 million distributed among 10,273 recipients. This marks a slight increase from the previous update on Jan. 15, when Phase 2 payments amounted to $877.23 million distributed among 10,223 recipients.

CHINA UPDATE

— Chinese policymakers are considering taking steps to stabilize the stock market, according to Bloomberg (link). Authorities would reportedly dole out around 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion). Markets rose on the news, but reversed course later. China’s stock market has underperformed in recent months. On Jan. 22, the CSI 300 index of Chinese shares dropped by 1.6%; it is now nearly a quarter below its level of a year ago.

Impact: The offshore yuan appreciated past 7.18 per dollar, hitting its highest levels in nearly two weeks following a renewed pledge by China’s cabinet to stabilize the capital markets.

— China’s growing concerns over food security. China’s focus on food security has intensified in recent years due to various factors, including the trade war with the U.S., the Covid-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of food security, stating, “We will fall under other’s control if we do not hold our rice bowls steady.” As China’s economy has grown to become the world’s second-largest, urbanization and changes in the Chinese diet, including increased consumption of meat, dairy, and processed foods, have placed significant pressure on available farmland. However, less than 12% of China’s land is suitable for agriculture, compared to 17% in the U.S., which has a smaller population.

Until recently, China has been reluctant to adopt genetically modified (GM) crops on a large scale due to consumer resistance and concerns about relying on imported GM seeds (see related item below). Inefficiency in crop production is another challenge, with China’s corn output per hectare being 40% lower than that of the U.S. China has been a net importer of agricultural products since 2004 and is a leading purchaser of products such as soybeans, corn, and rice.

To enhance food security, the Financial Times notes that China is pursuing several strategies, including strengthening agricultural ties with allies like Brazil, which has become its largest agricultural supplier. Beijing is also diversifying its import sources and signing agricultural cooperation agreements with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.

Domestically, China has reclaimed significant farmland since 2021 and has preliminarily approved the planting of genetically modified corn and soybean varieties after years of controversy. However, experts note that China faces challenges in aligning farmers with its self-sufficiency goals, as the average farm size is small, making it difficult to implement high-tech farming practices. Additionally, climate-related issues such as floods and droughts, attributed to global warming, further hinder China’s farm production, increasing the importance of food security measures.

— China to expand use of GM soybeans, corn ‘in orderly manner’. Beijing, who has been cautious on the development and deployment of GM crops, is steadily opening to commercial cultivation. China has successfully completed its pilot projects for commercialization of GM soybeans and corn, an ag Ministry official said. In December, China issued licenses to 26 companies to produce and sell GM corn and soybean seeds and last week approved additional varieties of GM soybeans and corn for import and production. “In the next step, we will improve technology and strengthen management and will expand the use of GM corn and soybeans in an orderly manner,” said Pan Wenbo, director of the planting management department at the ag ministry.

— China to further expand oilseed production to reduce imports. China will grow rapeseed on more land and stabilize soybean acreage this coming year, extending a policy drive to boost oilseed harvests and cut reliance on overseas supplies in the top consumer. Link to more via Bloomberg.

— China’s sow herd drops more than 5% in 2023. China’s sow herd declined 2.5 million head (5.7%) to 41 million head at the end of 2023, according to an ag ministry official. Farmers reduced their breeding herds during the final quarter of last year to cut losses amid poor margins and an oversupply of hogs.

— Magnitude-7.1 earthquake strikes China’s Xinjiang region. The powerful earthquake shook China’s far western Xinjiang region early today, resulting in multiple injuries as reported by state media. The earthquake occurred shortly after 2 a.m. local time and caused the collapse of structures and the disruption of power lines. The epicenter of the earthquake is situated in a remote, mountainous, and sparsely populated area near China’s border with Kyrgyzstan. Strong tremors were felt in cities located hundreds of miles away, including Kashgar and Hotan in southern Xinjiang. In response to the disaster, nearly 200 rescue workers have been dispatched to the affected area, with additional personnel being assembled to aid in relief efforts, according to authorities.

TRADE POLICY

— Growing concerns of a trade war between EU and China. Increasing frustration in Brussels and perceived political intransigence in Beijing are raising concerns of a potential trade war between the European Union (EU) and China, according to the South China Morning Post (link). Despite Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s recent efforts to portray China as a supporter of open markets and multilateralism during his visit to Europe, EU officials see a different picture behind closed doors.

China’s promises of market access for individual member states are viewed as attempts to weaken support within the EU for tougher measures against China, including addressing issues such as the trade deficit, manufacturing overcapacity, and access to China’s markets. The EU has expressed its readiness to use trade weapons to address these concerns.

While EU leaders engaged in detailed discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li, the responses did not inspire hope for improvement. Xi warned against following the path of former US President Donald Trump in attempting to rebalance trade with China.

China has already initiated some responses, including an anti-dumping probe into French brandy, seen as retaliation against the EU’s investigation into subsidies in China’s electric vehicle sector. China has also tightened shipments of critical minerals to the West, which are essential for semiconductor production.

Despite expectations that China would open up its economy, it appears to be asserting more control, with increased national security measures, surveillance, and restrictions on meetings with foreign diplomats.

The EU is urging China to be more responsive and build trust to rebalance the relationship, but the ball is seen as being in China’s court. The EU plans to unveil more details of its economic security strategy, focusing on screening outbound investments in hi-tech sectors and strengthening export controls. However, the package will not propose legally binding changes to EU rules.

Some EU capitals believe that a stronger European approach is necessary, particularly in the face of the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, as highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron emphasized the need for the EU to become more sovereign and capable of defending itself in a geopolitical landscape dominated by the U.S. and China.

Bottom line: The situation remains complex, with tensions between the EU and China potentially escalating into a trade war, further impacting global trade dynamics.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— More than one out of every six ratepayers are behind on energy bills, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association said in a report. Household heating costs, in particular, have jumped as much as 20% since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, said the group.

— Biofuels and climate markets could help preserve farms: Vilsack. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack addressed the American Farm Bureau Federation convention in Salt Lake City and emphasized that the decline in the number of U.S. farms can be halted by adopting climate-smart farming practices, expanding biofuel production, and increasing local and regional marketing. Vilsack stressed the importance of finding alternative ways to boost income, especially for small and medium-sized operations.

During his speech, Vilsack announced $50 million in grants for seven projects aimed at expanding independent domestic fertilizer production. He also revealed $157 million in assistance for 675 projects to help farmers and rural small businesses install renewable energy systems or improve energy efficiency.

Vilsack highlighted the need to support small and mid-sized farming operations, as the country cannot afford to accelerate their loss. He mentioned that farmers could potentially earn revenue from sustainably produced commodities and environmental services, such as carbon sequestration and emissions reduction practices.

USDA has allocated $3.1 billion for its climate-smart farming initiative, supporting 141 pilot projects. Additionally, the Treasury Department has opened the door for biofuels to qualify for tax credits in the production of low-carbon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) potentially creating a significant market. USDA also has programs aimed at expanding local and regional food networks and increasing local processing of agricultural products to benefit producers.

— Biomass-based diesel production reaches 4 billion gallons in 2023. The production of biomass-based diesel, which includes motor and aviation fuel, reached 4 billion gallons in 2023, marking a 1-billion-gallon increase from the previous year, according to the Clean Fuels Alliance America (link). Kurt Kovarik, vice president of the trade group, highlighted the growth of advanced biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and heating oil from sustainably sourced feedstocks within the clean fuels industry.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) set targets for the use of biomass-based diesel in motor vehicles, aiming for 2.82 billion gallons in 2023, 3.04 billion gallons in 2024, and 3.35 billion gallons in 2025. The Clean Fuels Alliance expressed disappointment in the EPA’s failure to mandate a more rapid expansion of biomass-based diesel usage when updating the RFS last year.

Of note: Approximately half of the U.S. soybean oil produced during the 12 months ending in September 2023 was used in the production of biofuels, highlighting the significance of biofuels in the agricultural sector.

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

— EU countries see lab-grown meat as threat to traditional farming. Austria, France, Italy, and nine other EU countries are arguing that lab-grown meat poses a threat to “genuine food production methods.” They claim that lab-grown meat does not constitute a sustainable alternative to traditional farm-based production and raises ethical, economic, social, and public health questions. The countries are concerned about the impact of cell-based food production practices on the European farming model and have authored a note to the Council of Ministers expressing their stance.

However, some diplomats consider this stance exaggerated and premature, as cell-based meat is still in the early stages of development and not yet marketed in Europe. The authorization for such products would require assessment by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) under the Novel Food Regulation. The twelve countries are not calling for rule changes but suggest considering these questions and discussing outcomes with member states and civil society before authorizing cell-based meat products.

Italy has been particularly vocal against lab-grown meat and has implemented a national ban on the sale of cellular agriculture products, which is under EU scrutiny for possible violations of single market rules. Meanwhile, the Netherlands has been a leader in cell-meat production, receiving EU funding for projects in this field. The debate over lab-grown meat’s role in the food industry continues in Europe.

Link to more on this topic via Euractiv.

— H-E-B is planning to expand its milk processing plant in San Antonio, Texas, already one of the largest in the Southwest, according to reporting from the San Antonio Express-News (link). “This investment will allow us to add additional partners and increase capacity to produce more H-E-B brand products that are made in Texas such as H-E-B Mootopia, H-E-B Organics and lactose-free dairy products, among others,” H-E-B spokesman Valentino Lucio said. The expansion plans, which are privately funded and on private land for private use, are estimated to cost $60 million. Work on the expansion is expected be completed July 5, 2025, the San Antonio Express-News reported. The updated space will include a 4,860-square-foot insulated metal panel room, or room built inside an existing building — an update which will allow for new ultra-high-temperature processing.

HEALTH UPDATE

— Blood test that screens for Alzheimer’s may be a step closer to reality. Researchers say this new blood test can be used to screen for Alzheimer’s disease with “high accuracy,” even before symptoms begin to show.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— New Hampshire GOP primary: Crucial showdown for Trump and Nikki Haley. The New Hampshire GOP primary taking place today holds significant importance as it represents a critical showdown between former President Donald Trump and one of his last major challengers, Nikki Haley. Haley has emphasized the state’s role as make-or-break for her presidential campaign, while Trump is aiming for another resounding victory. The primary will determine the level of support and influence Trump still commands within the Republican Party, and it serves as a test for Haley’s campaign’s viability. Both candidates are vying for a strong showing in New Hampshire, making it a pivotal moment in the ongoing dynamics of the Republican Party.

The first ballots were cast at midnight, with all six voters in the tiny town of Dixville Notch backing Haley. The latest polls, however, show Trump’s lead over Haley has widened to double digits following his big win in Iowa’s caucuses last week. Poll closing times vary in New Hampshire today but most close at 7 p.m. ET.

Meanwhile, a robocall using artificial intelligence to mimic President Joe Biden’s voice is urging voters in New Hampshire to skip the state’s pivotal primary today. Tracking data suggests up to 25,000 fraudulent calls were made to residents across the Granite State as investigators quickly try to find the identity of the caller behind the scheme.

Biden’s Democratic challengers hope to beat expectations. President Biden’s Democratic primary challengers are hoping for a symbolic victory in New Hampshire Tuesday as they seek momentum in their long-shot bids for the nomination. Challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) likely have their best chance at success in the primary Tuesday after focusing their campaigns in the state for months and with Biden not officially on the ballot.

— North Dakota Republican Governor Doug Burgum will not seek a third term as governor. This decision comes over a month after he ended his bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Burgum’s recent endorsement of former President Donald Trump and Trump’s praise of him have led to speculation about his potential role in a second Trump administration. Burgum did not provide specific reasons for not seeking a third term as governor. Republicans hold all statewide and congressional seats and Democrats have not won the governor’s office since 1988. Before entering politics, Burgum was known as a software executive and led Great Plains Software, which was acquired by Microsoft for over $1 billion in 2001. He also worked as a Microsoft executive and was involved in real estate development and venture capital.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— EPA is proposing (link) to establish new guidelines for discharges from meat and poultry processing establishments, beginning a 60-day comment period. Public hearings will take place Jan. 24 and Jan. 31, with comments on the plan due by March 25. The proposed rule’s goal is to enhance water quality and safeguarding human health and the environment by decreasing the discharge of nutrients and other pollutants into the nation’s surface waters. The EPA has presented various regulatory options, with the preferred option being highlighted in this announcement.

The preferred option, estimated to cost $232 million annually, is anticipated to lead to a reduction of approximately 100 million pounds of pollutant discharges per year. EPA’s initiative is focused on Municipal Phosphorus and Nitrogen Pollution (MPP) facilities, which were initially regulated for discharges in 1974 and updated in 2004. However, the regulations only applied to direct discharges into U.S. waters and covered a limited number of MPP facilities out of the total.

The proposed rule includes new phosphorus limits and revised nitrogen limits for large direct dischargers, as well as new pretreatment standards for specific conventional pollutants for large indirect dischargers. EPA emphasizes that their plan aims to avoid significant impacts on smaller firms.

For further information on this topic, EPA has provided a website (link).

— Supreme Court to decide decade-long Rio Grande water dispute. The case focuses on the 1938 Rio Grande Compact, which allocates water among Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas. While the states have reached an agreement, the federal government objects to the consent decree, claiming it places unagreed-upon obligations on the United States.

— Argentine workers to strike against president’s economic reforms. Hundreds of thousands of Argentine workers are set to strike against President Javier Milei’s economic reforms. Union leader Gerardo Martínez accuses the government of breaking the social contract and reneging on deals with unions. The strike, expected to be the earliest in a presidential term in modern Argentine history, aims to protest against sweeping labor and economic changes introduced by Milei’s government, including cuts to worker protections and deregulation of industries. The strike reflects growing tensions in Argentina as the government attempts to address economic challenges amid rising poverty and inflation.

Meanwhile, President Javier Milei will increase the number of Argentines paying income tax as part of a strategy to shore up government finances.

— Office of refugee resettlement spent $20 billion welcoming illegals. The federal agency responsible for busing, sheltering and supporting the largely unauthorized immigrant population pouring across America’s borders spent nearly $20 billion over the last two years, according to a new report. Most of that money was spent on sheltering and caring for immigrant children who are in the U.S. illegally, with other funds also going to help new arrivals from Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti and other nations favored by President Biden’s immigration policies. Link for details.

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates