News/Markets/Policy Updates: Nov. 12, 2024
— A “short list” for the next USDA Secretary has surfaced. Sources have provided some information about names on the list, but not all of them. Included: Charles Herbster, a Trump donor who led his 2024 rural campaign coalition. Also: Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller. Sarah Frey is another person on the short list. She is the founder and CEO of Frey Farms, a company she established at the young age of 16. Frey grew up on a struggling farm in Southern Illinois as the youngest of 21 children. At the age of 15, Sarah started her own fresh produce delivery business using an old pickup truck. Several years she took over the family farm, which was facing foreclosure, and purchased it outright. This bold move marked the beginning of her entrepreneurial journey in agriculture. Under Sarah’s leadership, Frey Farms has grown into a major agricultural enterprise: It is now the largest producer of pumpkins in the United States. The company owns approximately 15,000 acres of farmland across seven states. Besides pumpkins, Frey Farms produces watermelons, cantaloupes, sweet corn, and hard squash. She is an advocate for better health initiatives, nutrition policies, and economic opportunities for underserved rural communities. In 2020, she published a best-selling memoir, The Growing Season: How I Built a New Life – and Saved an American Farm. Of note: When we asked one source if Kip Tom’s name is on the short list the contact said, “No comment.” Also of note: RFJ Jr. is reportedly playing a very active role in the USDA Secretary selection. — Davis, Bacon, Glusenkamp Perez win House races. Three House Ag panel members were declared winners as ballot counting resolved close races; Republican Dan Bacon of Nebraska and Democrats Don Davis, of North Carolina, and Marie Glusenkamp Perez, of Washington State, were all re-elected. Link to more via the Associated Press. — Trump has selected former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in his upcoming administration. This appointment signals a potential shift in environmental policy and regulatory approach. Here are the key points about this nomination: Trump stated that Zeldin would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions” to “unleash the power of American businesses.” The administration aims to maintain “the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet” while pursuing deregulation. Zeldin is expected to focus on restoring “U.S. energy dominance” and revitalizing the auto industry. He may be tasked with rolling back several Biden administration environmental regulations, particularly those targeting power plant pollution and vehicle emissions. There are plans to end the pause on constructing new natural gas export terminals and potentially withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement. Zeldin joined Trump and Sen.-elect Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania for a roundtable on agriculture during Trump’s campaign in September. Zeldin praised Trump for addressing the “threat” of foreign entities buying U.S. agricultural land and highlighted Trump’s trade policies, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which prioritized American farmers and strengthened supply chain resiliency. Of note to the biofuels sector, In November 2015, Zeldin and several other members of Congress sent a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy expressing concerns about the proposed 2016 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. The lawmakers worried that the proposed 2016 RVOs would require blending more ethanol than could be absorbed by the E10 gasoline market, effectively “breaking through” the blend wall. There were concerns that exceeding the blend wall could drive up the price of E10 gasoline for consumers. Ultimately, the EPA did finalize 2016 RVOs that were lower than originally proposed in the RFS statute, but still represented an increase over previous years. The agency attempted to balance the competing interests and technical constraints in the fuel market. Meanwhile, discussions are underway about possibly relocating the EPA headquarters outside of Washington, D.C. Environmental advocates criticized the nomination, viewing it as a potential regression in environmental policy. Zeldin’s record includes opposition to several climate-related bills and support for increased fossil fuel production. Zeldin’s appointment as EPA Administrator will require Senate confirmation. — Trump is expected to nominate Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida as his Secretary of State, marking a significant development in the formation of his upcoming administration. This decision, if finalized, would make Rubio the first Latino to serve as America’s top diplomat. Rubio, known for his hawkish foreign policy views, has taken hard-line positions on several key international issues: Of note: Rubio’s overall foreign policy stance has evolved to align more closely with Trump’s views in recent years. On Ukraine, Rubio has shifted towards advocating for a negotiated settlement rather than focusing on regaining all territory taken by Russia. He voted against a $95 billion military aid package for Ukraine in April, signaling a move towards a more restrained approach to the conflict. Rubio has described the emerging foreign policy under Trump as “pragmatic,” acknowledging the need for a strategic approach in a rapidly changing world. If Rubio is appointed as Secretary of State, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would have the authority to appoint a temporary replacement for Rubio’s Senate seat. The appointed replacement would serve until a special election in 2026 to complete the final two years of Rubio’s term, which ends in 2028. Several scenarios are being discussed for how Governor DeSantis might proceed with the appointment: Other potential candidates for the appointment include: — Michael Waltz, a Republican representative from Florida, has been selected by Trump to serve as his national security adviser. This appointment places Waltz in a crucial role shaping U.S. foreign and national security policy in Trump’s upcoming administration. Waltz brings a wealth of military and policy experience to the position: • He is a retired Army National Guard colonel and former Green Beret, having served 27 years in the U.S. Army and National Guard. In Congress, Waltz has focused on national security issues: Waltz is known for his hawkish views on China: Waltz has been skeptical of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, advocating for more conditions and oversight. He has criticized what he describes as a “woke” military, echoing Trump’s stance on military priorities. On Afghanistan, Waltz called for accountability regarding the U.S. withdrawal and has been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the situation. — Trump has selected South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to serve as the next Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), according to multiple reports. This appointment is part of Trump’s efforts to emphasize his hardline immigration policies as he prepares for his second term in office. Noem, 52, is currently serving as the Governor of South Dakota. Prior to her role as governor, she served as a U.S. Representative from 2011 to 20192. Noem gained national attention during the Covid-19 pandemic for her stance against mandates, notably refusing to impose a statewide mask requirement. As the Secretary of Homeland Security, Noem will be responsible for: Noem’s appointment signals Trump’s commitment to his immigration agenda. The administration is also bringing in other immigration hardliners: Noem’s appointment will require Senate confirmation before she can officially assume the role of Secretary of Homeland Security. — Trump’s day-one agenda highlights. Donald Trump plans swift action on key economic policies, including higher tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration crackdowns. His proposed mass deportation of undocumented migrants could impact sectors, like the ag sector, reliant on migrant labor. Trump aims to extend expiring 2017 tax cuts and lower corporate taxes, pending congressional approval. On trade, he seeks to impose steep tariffs, including 20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods, with few legal obstacles. His agenda may influence economic growth and inflation, though the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, remains cautious on adjusting rate policies. |
| MARKET FOCUS |
— Equities today: Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. Asian markets are still feeling the bearish effects of recent China economic stimulus measures that have not met market expectations. Bloomberg reports China may provide more economic stimulus, bolster manufacturing and allow the Chinese yuan to weaken to offset the negative impacts of the upcoming Trump presidency and his tariff threats. U.S. Dow is currently down around 65 points. In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong -2.8%. China -1.4%. India -1%. In Europe, at midday, London -1%. Paris -1.3%. Frankfurt -0.9%. There are no U.S. economic reports today, but the Treasury will hold 3M and 6M Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move yields. Several Fed speakers today in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting including Waller (10:00 a.m. ET), Barkin (10:15 a.m. ET), Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET), and Harker (5:00 p.m. ET).
U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices were higher Monday, setting new record finishes despite the U.S. gov’t being closed for a holiday. The Dow gained 304.14 points, 0.69%, at 44,293.13. The Nasdaq rose 11.99 points, 0.06%, at 19,298.76. The S&P 500 was up 5.81 points, 0.10%, at 6,001.35.
— Home Depot exceeded Wall Street expectations with a 6% rise in quarterly sales and raised its full-year sales outlook to a 4% increase. Sales were boosted by its SRS Distribution acquisition, hurricane-related repairs, and warm weather, but the company cautioned that many consumers are delaying home improvement projects due to high mortgage rates and borrowing costs.
— Ag markets today: Corn posted mild gains overnight, soybeans faced price pressure for most of the session and wheat pivoted around unchanged. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading fractionally to a penny higher, soybeans were 8 to 11 cents lower, SRW wheat futures were narrowly mixed, HRW wheat was 2 to 3 cents lower and HRS wheat was a penny lower to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index was around 350 points higher, and front-month crude oil futures were about 40 cents higher this morning.
The average cash cattle price declined $3.29 to $186.53 last week, the second straight weekly decline. While packers purchased only 50,000 head at the sharply lower prices, cash sources say they have plentiful near-term supplies, which will likely keep cash prices under pressure.
The CME lean hog index is down 41 cents to $90.02 as of Nov. 8, the second straight daily decline. The pork cutout fell 92 cents on Monday, pressured mostly by an $11.18 decline in primal belly prices, though hams, ribs and butts were also lower.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
• Corn: December corn fell a penny to $4.30, marking a high-range close.
• Soy complex: January soybean futures fell 8 cents to $10.22 1/4 and settled nearer session lows. December meal futures sunk $1.10 to $295.10. December bean oil futures lost 63 points to 48.14 cents, near mid-range.
• Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 7 cents to $5.65 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a nine-week low early on. December HRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.59 1/2 and nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.92.
• Cotton: December cotton fell 129 points to 69.69 cents, closing below the 100-, 20- and 10-day moving averages.
• Cattle: December live cattle closed unchanged at $183.70, near mid-range and hit a six-week low early on. January feeder cattle rose 82 1/2 cents to $242.25 and near the session high.
• Hogs: December lean hog futures surged $1.35 to $81.775 and closed near session highs.
— In a second term, Trump may select more mainstream candidates for Federal Reserve Board positions, moving away from unorthodox picks like Judy Shelton and Stephen Moore, who faced Senate confirmation challenges. Bloomberg Economics analysts Stuart Paul and David Wilcox suggest Trump could focus on candidates with government experience, such as former White House adviser Kevin Hasset, ex-Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Bloomberg Economics notes that private-sector candidates may have a tougher path to confirmation. The next Fed board vacancy arises in January 2026.
Market perspectives:
— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro, British pound, and Swiss franc weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was firmer after the bond market was closed Monday. The yield was around 4.37% with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were higher, with U.S. crude around $68.60 per barrel and Brent around $72.40 per barrel. Gold and silver were narrowly mixed, with gold weaker around $2,615 per troy ounce and silver firmer around $30.65 per troy ounce.
— The dollar has surged since Trump’s victory, potentially hurting multinational profits, while yields on the 10-year Treasury note have risen, indicating investor concerns about inflation and potential Fed tightening. Futures markets now predict three rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the lending rate at 3.8%, significantly higher than projections from six weeks ago.
— Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $89,980 following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, with investors anticipating it may surpass $100,000 this year. The rally is driven partly by Trump’s pledge to create a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, reducing uncertainty for crypto businesses.
— OPEC reduced its oil demand growth projections for 2023 and 2024 for a fourth straight month, citing slower-than-expected demand from China and other regions. The cartel now predicts global consumption will rise by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, down by 107,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts. Despite a nearly 20% cut in this year’s demand growth estimates since July, OPEC remains more optimistic than other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency (IEA). OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have delayed resuming halted production and plan modest output increases next year, contingent on market reviews. Meanwhile, international crude prices have declined, largely due to confidence that Middle Eastern conflicts will not disrupt exports and concerns over China’s slowing economy.
— Europe will likely buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas during the Trump administration, regardless of price, to minimize the potential for tariffs and to further its pivot from Russian supplies, Oilprice.com writes (link).
— Business groups are pressing the Trudeau government to end labor disruptions at Canada’s largest ports, which are impacting C$1.2 billion (approximately $861.9 million U.S. dollars) in daily trade. Strikes and lockouts, including the Montreal port’s 1,200 union workers, have disrupted supply chains. Employers offered a 20% pay hike over six years, but negotiations stalled. Labor Minister MacKinnon faces calls to use arbitration powers as done with rail strikes, though unions criticize government intervention as setting a dangerous precedent. Business leaders warn prolonged disputes harm Canada’s economic reliability and global trade reputation.
— Iowa farmers planted over 3.8 million acres of cover crops in 2023, according to the Iowa Nutrient Research & Education Council’s annual crop survey (link). This initiative, part of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy since 2017, tracks tillage, crop rotations, and fertilizer applications to curb nutrient runoff, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, into waterways.
— USDA daily export sale:
• 110,500 MT corn to Mexico, 2024-2025 marketing year
— Ag trade update: Jordan purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin hard milling wheat. Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of corn to be sourced from Brazil and Argentina. Japan is seeking 114,403 MT of milling wheat via its weekly tender.
— NWS outlook: An Atmospheric River will bring heavy, low elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California beginning Tuesday evening... ...Showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding concerns to the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys Wednesday... ...Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, cold fronts bring more seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West today.
Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:
• Corn mildly firmer, beans weaker and wheat mixed
• Lower cash cattle expectations
• Cash hog index, pork cutout weaken
• Cordonnier leaves South American crop estimate unchanged, Brazil bean bias improves
• France inches up wheat production estimate
| CONGRESS |
— Congress faces a flurry of legislative and political challenges leading up to Jan. 2, including funding the gov’t for fiscal year 2025 (a play to allow President-elect Donald Trump to make his mark on government spending for the current fiscal year), the NDAA, and a new farm bill. A disaster aid measure is widely expected but we are waiting on lawmaker reaction to a possible separate ag financial aid package like that proposed by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), the FARM Act. Concerns about the cost implications of that package have surfaced.
The stopgap spending goal mirrors House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) original plan in early September that would have temporarily extended current funding levels into mid-March. That continuing resolution failed over bipartisan opposition and Congress delayed government funding to Dec. 20 instead. A March continuing resolution (CR) could allow Republicans to secure coveted spending cuts in long-term appropriations bills.
Of note: Punchbowl News, citing an interview with Johnson, reports that he will meet with Trump Wednesday in the U.S. Capitol. Johnson then plans to travel to Mar-a-Lago Thursday; he also says he had to have discussions with Trump’s team about government funding. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) tells Punchbowl he wants Congress to extend government funding through Sept. 2025 and that dealing with funding early in the year would impact Trump’s legislative agenda.
Lawmakers may have to provide more money for disaster aid before the Dec. 20 deadline for Hurricanes Helene and Milton and other disasters, including in the ag sector. FEMA received about $20 billion on Oct. 1 at the start of the new fiscal year, but was down to $11 billion by Oct. 9. The agency operated under spending restrictions for most of August and all of September, prioritizing immediate needs. It ended those restrictions in October and hasn’t reinstated them.
Republicans are preparing for Trump’s first 100 days, seeking to renew tax cuts and advance energy and border security measures by April 30. Key issues include funding negotiations, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) facing pressure from hardliners to extend funding until March 2025, complicating Trump’s agenda timeline. House GOP retains control, albeit narrowly. Trump eyes high-profile appointments, affecting GOP margins. Leadership elections and House rules reforms add further complexity to the legislative landscape.
— The first task for Congress is choosing new leadership. President-elect Trump aims to influence these decisions, with his allies backing Florida Senator Rick Scott for Senate leadership. Senators John Cornyn and John Thune are currently frontrunners to replace outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The leadership vote is confidential. In the House, where the GOP is likely to retain a majority, elections for Speaker take place tomorrow.
| RUSSIA/UKRAINE |
— Kazakhstan opens new seaport grain terminal. Kazakhstan opened a new grain terminal with 1 MMT of annual capacity at the Kuryk seaport in the Mangistau region. The terminal is expected to increase Kazakhstan’s grain exports to Iran and the Caucasus region. This terminal is part of Kazakhstan’s 2024-2028 Sea Infrastructure Development Plan.
| PERSONNEL |
— Chuck Conner announced his retirement as President and CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC), effective Dec. 31, 2025. The NCFC Executive Council has selected Kincannon & Reed to begin a national search for Conner’s successor. This decision marks the end of a significant chapter in Conner’s career and for the NCFC.
Career highlights:
• He served as a White House agriculture adviser and Deputy Secretary of Agriculture during the George W. Bush administration.
• Conner has led the NCFC for over 15 years, taking on the role of President and CEO on Jan. 22, 2009.
• Prior to joining NCFC, he held the position of Deputy Secretary at USDA from mid-2005.
• From August 2007 to January 2008, Conner served as both USDA Secretary and Deputy Secretary.
| CHINA UPDATE |
— China has expressed a willingness to improve economic and trade relations with the United States, while also voicing concerns about certain U.S. policies and actions. Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen stated that China is willing to resolve differences and strengthen communications with the U.S. to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable economic and trade relations. This indicates China’s interest in maintaining a productive economic partnership with the U.S.
However, China has raised several concerns regarding U.S. actions:
• China requested the World Trade Organization (WTO) to investigate U.S. subsidies for new energy vehicles provided under the Inflation Reduction Act.
• The Chinese delegation expressed concerns over additional Section 301 tariffs and investigations targeting Chinese imports and industries.
• China opposed using “overcapacity” as an excuse to impose trade and investment restrictions.
Wang Shouwen emphasized the need to clarify the boundaries of national security in the trade and economic sphere to stabilize business cooperation expectations. This suggests China is seeking more predictability and fairness in trade relations.
Despite tensions, the economic relationship between the two countries remains significant:
• The U.S. is China’s third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching 2.72 trillion yuan ($384 billion) in the first seven months of 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year.
• Both Chinese and U.S. businesses continue to see opportunities in each other’s markets, as evidenced by comments from executives of several companies.
While China seeks improved trade relations with the U.S., it is also strengthening ties with Russia. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated that the most important task for Russia and China is to counter any U.S. attempt at containment. This indicates a strategic alignment between Russia and China in response to perceived U.S. policies. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged a “new era” of partnership in May, positioning themselves as rivals to the United States.
| TRADE POLICY |
— Impact of threatened Trump tariffs. The president of the National Retail Federation said tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump could cost Americans up to $80 billion. Former Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says the prospect of higher tariffs would make it hard for the Fed to interpret inflation data.
— Mexico requested a USMCA panel review of the U.S. Commerce Department and International Trade Commission’s decisions on countervailing duties and fair-value sales concerning aluminum extrusions from Mexico. Filed on Nov. 1, the panel will have up to 150 days to review and issue an initial report, with a final report due 30 days later unless extended by mutual agreement. Compliance with the panel’s final report must occur within 45 days of its issuance.
| ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE |
— Shell successfully appealed a 2021 Dutch court ruling that required it to cut carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels. An appeals court in The Hague overturned the decision, citing a lack of scientific consensus on whether companies should adopt such a specific reduction target.
| LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— Bankrupt poultry supplier highlights challenges in Biden’s meatpacking initiative. The Biden administration’s effort to boost competition in the meatpacking industry faces significant challenges, exemplified by the bankruptcy of Pure Prairie Poultry, a recipient of USDA support. As the Wall Street Journal reports (link), the USDA-backed startup, intended to disrupt industry giants like Tyson and Cargill, declared bankruptcy, leaving 1.3 million chickens unfed. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack defended the broader initiative, while critics like Iowa’s Agriculture Secretary and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have questioned oversight and effectiveness. The program’s delays and market challenges have raised doubts about its potential impact.
— Costco has issued a voluntary recall for nearly 80,000 pounds of Kirkland Signature butter due to a labeling error. Details:
• Continental Dairy Facilities Southwest LLC initiated the recall in October 2024.
• The recall affects approximately 79,200 pounds of Kirkland Signature butter.
• The issue is that the packaging may not include the required “Contains Milk” allergen statement, even though cream is listed as an ingredient.
Affected products:
• 46,800 pounds of Kirkland Signature Unsalted Sweet Cream Butter
• 32,400 pounds of Kirkland Signature Salted Sweet Cream Butter
• The butter was distributed in Texas
• Best-by dates range from February 22, 2025, to March 29, 2025
FDA classification: On Nov. 7, the FDA classified this as a Class II recall. This classification indicates potential for “temporary or medically reversible adverse health consequences” and the probability of serious adverse health consequences is considered remote.
Customers with milk allergies or sensitivities who purchased the affected butter should discard it or return it to Costco for a refund. For those without milk allergies, the butter is safe to consume as the recall is not related to any foodborne illness concerns.
The recall has sparked some amusement online, with many people pointing out the irony of needing to label butter as containing milk. However, it also underscores the seriousness with which food safety regulations treat allergen labeling to protect consumers with severe allergies.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Ranked choice voting faces setbacks as five states reject ballot measures. Supporters of ranked choice voting (RCV) suffered defeats as five states rejected related ballot measures on Election Day, while Washington, D.C., approved the shift and abolished its closed primaries starting in 2026. Measures to adopt RCV were turned down in Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon, with Nevada notably reversing its 2022 approval. Missouri voted to ban RCV statewide. Advocates, led by FairVote, emphasized their municipal successes, with 52 jurisdictions now using RCV. Proponents argue it reduces polarization, while critics, including Idaho’s Governor, claim it undermines election confidence. Despite setbacks, advocates vow to continue pushing for reform.
| OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE |
— North Korea has formalized a defense treaty with Russia, obligating mutual military and other support if either nation is at war. This pact, agreed upon by Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin during a June summit, follows North Korea’s deployment of an estimated 11,000 troops to assist Russia in its conflict with Ukraine last month.
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |