New Farm Bill: Lots of Noise This Week, Few Signals

Risk aversion rising again | Biden trade policy | Yellen walks back a walk back | TikTok

USDA daily export sale: 204,000 metric tons corn for to China during MY 2022-2023.

Federal Reserve U.S. banks drew on $165 billion from the Federal Reserve lending facility in the week ending March 22, highlighting lenders’ concerns over available interbank liquidity, Bloomberg reported.

Risk aversion is again elevated, as focus is now on credit default swaps with Deutsche Bank that are suggesting stress for that bank. The recent series of banking problems in the U.S. and Europe are playing out as some veteran financial market watchers expected: sort of a rolling crisis that shows no signs of letting up, says analyst Jim Wyckoff. But… the major U.S. stock indices were up for the week heading into Friday’s session.

Spillover risk: “Looking ahead, the longer that financial conditions remain tight, the greater the risk that stresses spread beyond the banking sector, unleashing greater financial and economic damage than we anticipated,” Moody’s wrote in its latest credit conditions report.

Charles Schwab says it could ride out a deposit flight. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (link), Schwab’s chief executive said the brokerage giant could continue to operate even if it lost most of its deposits over the next year.

Recent bank failures and the government’s response will be the subject of hearings Tuesday at the Senate Banking Committee and Wednesday at the House Financial Services Committee.

Treasury Sec. Yellen certainly walks back her own walk back comments. Yellen clarified her stance on bank bailouts a day after comments to lawmakers sent jitters through markets. In written testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, Yellen had said the federal government would not issue “blanket” deposit insurance to bank depositors of any size, and rescues would be on a case-by-case basis. But in a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing yesterday, she gave an identical written testimony while adding that “certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai will discuss trade policy with the Ways and Means Committee today after a similar session yesterday before the Senate Finance Committee, during which members questioned efforts to negotiate agreements on critical minerals with the European Union and Japan, demanding greater transparency and congressional approval. Lawmakers from both political parties also lamented the Biden administration not going after more tariff-reducing trade agreements, with Tai saying. “While it has been, in general, very good for our agricultural producers, the other parts of our economy feel like the playing field is not level.” That went was shot at faster than China’s spy balloon. More in Trade Policy section.

U.S. concerns over TikTok dealt another blow to U.S./China relations. More in China section.

Flood watches. The same system that brought rare tornadoes to California this week will trigger widespread severe thunderstorms today for the mid-South and Ohio Valley. More than 20 million people are under flood watches today across a large swath of the US stretching from Oklahoma to West Virginia. The storm already passed through the Oklahoma-Missouri border late Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center, drenching parts of the states with several inches of rain.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened down around 125 points. Investors continued to show concern over the stability of the financial sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid for a second day as a gauge of banks wiped out the last of its gains from the start of the week. Deutsche Bank AG slumped 14%, the most in nine months, as investors directed their gaze on the German lender following the downfall of Credit Suisse. Its U.S.-listed shares were also lower premarket. In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.6%. India -0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London -2%. Paris -2.3%. Frankfurt -2.4%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow added 75.14 points, 0.2%, to 32,105.25. The Nasdaq rose 117.44 points, 1%, to 11,787.40. The S&P 500 ticked up 11.75 points, 0.3%, to 3,948.72.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: May corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $6.31 3/4 and nearer the session low.
• Soy complex: May soybeans fell 29 cents and closed near session lows at $14.19 2/4. May soybean meal closed $13.3 lower at $438.3, the largest daily decline of the year. May soyoil saw losses of 247 points before settling at 52.17 cents, nearly 90 points off the intraday low.
• Wheat: May SRW wheat fell 1 1/2 cents to $6.62, nearer the session low after hitting a 20-month low Wednesday. May HRW wheat gained 8 1/2 cents at $8.19 3/4 and near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 8 2/4 cents and settled at $8.19 3/4.
• Cotton: May cotton fell 70 points to 77.58 cents, nearer the session low.
• Cattle: April live cattle futures slipped 15 cents to $162.15 Thursday, while April feeder futures rallied 62.5 cents to $195.00.
• Hogs: April lean hog figures settled 32.5 cents lower at $75.75, in the middle of today’s range.
  

Ag markets today: Soybeans’ attempt at a corrective rebound overnight proved futile and the market is under solid pressure this morning. Corn futures traded both sides of unchanged, while wheat firmed overnight. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher, soybeans were mostly 8 to 10 cents lower and wheat futures were 6 to 9 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around $2.75 lower, and the U.S. dollar index was more than 600 points higher this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

• U.S. durable goods orders for February are expected to fall 0.3% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET) UPDATE: Durable goods orders in the U.S. which measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers of goods meant to last at least three years, dropped 1% month-over-month in February of 2023, following an upwardly revised 5% plunge in January and compared to market forecasts of a 0.6% increase. Transportation equipment was the biggest drag, down 2.8%, namely nondefense aircraft and parts (-6.6%), defense aircraft and parts (-11.1%) while those for motor vehicles and parts went down 0.9%. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Orders were also down for capital goods (-2.2%), namely nondefense ones (-1.2%), machinery (-0.5%) and computers and electronic products (-0.1%) but rose for fabricated metal products (0.4%) and primary metals (0.3%). Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.2%, after a 0.3% rise in January
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks on the economy and monetary policy at 9:30 a.m. ET.
• S&P Global releases its preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services indexes for March at 9:45 a.m. ET.
• Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.

• President Biden will have a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 1:30 p.m. ET.
• Biden will address the Canadian Parliament. 2 p.m. ET.
• Biden and Trudeau will hold a joint press conference at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building. 3:45 p.m. ET.

U.S. mortgage rates logged their largest drop in two months. The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.42%. The decline from 6.6% a week ago was the largest since Jan. 19.

Inflation in Japan slowed in February. The core-consumer price index, which excludes volatile food prices, increased by 3.1% year on year, down from 4.2% in January. With inflation still exceeding the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%, Ueda Kazuo, the central bank’s new governor, is under pressure to tighten monetary policy.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher on safe-haven demand. The dollar weakness has been the primary theme in currency markets for most of March, but the greenback remains comfortably above the 2023 lows. For now, the buck remains in a trendless range between 101 and 105. Crude oil is lower, with U.S. crude around $67.45 per barrel and Brent around $73.00 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently yielding 3.3%.

• WTI crude futures slumped more than 3% to below $68 per barrel on Friday, as U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers that it will be “difficult” to refill strategic oil reserves this year, prompting speculations that the U.S. gov’t would only start buying at even lower prices.

It could take years for the U.S. to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), despite previous plans by the Biden administration to buy oil back at under $72/bbl. Granholm pointed to another upcoming sale of 26 million barrels from the SPR, as well as storage site maintenance. The SPR currently holds 372 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after last year’s historic drawdown of 180 million barrels.

• Ag trade: Taiwan purchased 56,300 MT of U.S. milling wheat.

• NWS weather outlook: Flash flooding and severe weather threat spreads into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys Friday... ...Showers and thunderstorms for the East Coast, snow and a wintry mix for the Midwest and Interior Northeast/New England heading into the weekend... ...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain snowfall to continue across the West.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Selloff in soybeans continues
• Russia may temporarily halt wheat, sunflower exports
• Traders likely to ignore Cold Storage data
• Choice beef firms again
• Another decline in cash hog index

— Peter Zeihan: Russia targets the Ukraine grain deal. “With winter on the way out and summer just around the corner, the Russians are revaluating their strategy. Targeting power infrastructure may have worked during the winter, but it doesn’t make much sense for the warmer months... it appears the new target will likely be Ukrainian agriculture. We’ve already seen the Russians change the renegotiation period of the grain deal from 120 days to 60 days, and I wouldn’t be surprised if March is the last time the Russians resign. So Ukrainian exports might fall off very soon, but can the rest of the world’s (already struggling) agriculture industry pick up the slack?”

Note: Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, speaker, and author who specializes in global energy, demographics, and security. Zeihan is best known for his books on geopolitics, which provide insight into the future of various countries and regions in light of their geopolitical circumstances. Some of his notable works include “The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder” (2014), “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America” (2016), and “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World” (2020). These books focus on topics such as the decline of American global leadership, the impact of energy markets, and the potential for increased international instability.

— Black Sea grain shipments ensured but there are risks. Ships carrying cargoes from Ukraine’s three Black Sea ports covered under the grain export deal continued to be insured. But the shorter renewal term raises concerns over forward shipments beyond the 60-day period, according to Lloyd’s of London. An official with the insurer told Reuters, “There is clearly underlying risk that if events change and somebody wanted to sink a ship to make a point, that clearly our appetite for continuing with those kind of risks might change.”

— Ukrainian farmers are cutting fertilizer use, idling land and switching to cheaper-to-grow oilseeds — all of which risk reducing grain output by a fifth from last year’s already-low level. Global grain stockpiles are expected to fall near the lowest in a decade.

— The third hearing so far on Ukraine aid oversight is scheduled for next Wednesday morning with the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Inspectors General for the Pentagon, State Department, and the U.S. Agency for International Development are all expected to attend. The last two such hearings were on Feb. 28 before the House Armed Services Committee and the House Appropriations’ Defense Subcommittee.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, warned European leaders to prepare for “years of war” if they did not do more to help his country. In a video address to an EU summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy pleaded for aircraft. On the ground, Oleksandr Syrsky, a senior Ukrainian soldier, said that a counterattack against Russian forces in the eastern town of Bakhmut would launch “very soon” as enemy soldiers have grown “exhausted.”

— Ukraine will need $411 billion to rebuild, the World Bank estimates. That new figure is significantly higher than the $349 billion the institution forecast in September.

— Putin said he will encourage Russian firms to use RMB when transacting with other countries. “We support the use of Chinese yuan in payments between Russia and countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America… [We’re confident such] forms of payments will be developed between Russian partners and their colleagues in third countries.” Putin said that two-thirds of trade between China and Russia is transacted either in RMB or rubles, adding: “This practice should be encouraged further.” He also said that Russian and Chinese financial and banking institutions should expand their presence in each other’s’ countries.

Upshot: The U.S. and its allies heavily restricted Russia’s use of dollars after its invasion of Ukraine last year. Since then, use of the RMB in China-Russia trade has soared.

— IRS plan on $80 billion out shortly: Yellen. More details about the IRS’s efforts are expected to be detailed in the agency’s forthcoming plan for spending $80 billion in funding from the massive climate and tax law. Yellen said at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing that the plan isn’t final yet but should be released in short order. National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins said she hopes the IRS’s spending plan is made public in April.

— Is there anything really knew about the lingering new farm bill debate? This week we had a farm bill-related conference, a hearing and lots of talk about a new farm bill. But nothing really new surfaced after all that mostly noise. A quick recap:

• Timing: Sen. John Boozman’s (R-Ark.) comment that he’s “feeling good” about the new farm bill’s timely passage was met with laughter from wonks and lobbyists attending a farm policy confab, those so-called “smart money” experts who are frequently wrong. Upshot: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) in his presser this week accurately forecast that nothing new about the farm bill will likely surface until after the debt limit debate is completed (remember that ahead). That will take months to unfold. We need to know the final funding level before there are any attempts to mix and match to get to a final bill/scoring. And Republicans must come to grips with the third rail of farm bills: don’t alter SNAP/food stamps with draconian language or funding reductions that will be defined by Democrats.

  What Thune knows and apparently many others do not: On IRA dollars, remember that everyone agrees they cannot all be spent by September 30, 2031, when the new money dries up. So, it makes sense to use the money that cannot be spent anyway on other things.

• Shifting funding around a big hurdle. Sen. Thune chatted about his farm bill priorities — including raising commodity reference prices and protecting crop insurance. Nothing new there. But when the conversation turned to conservation, and the almost $20 billion for climate-smart agriculture in Democrats’ party-line Inflation Reduction Act, Thune suggested Republicans might come for that pot of money. Good luck having to deal with a farm bill leader veteran: Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who cheered the billions of dollars in climate-smart funds to cut down on farming’s carbon emissions. “With these landmark investments, we are equipping farmers, foresters, and rural communities with the tools they need to be a part of the climate solution,” Stabenow said in August. Bottom line: A Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to relinquish that money. Thus, more funding is needed or a realization that the billions of dollars in ad hoc aid funded by taxpayers over the past several years must be reworked into the crop insurance program to make it more reflective of today’s agriculture. But that may take some tweaks that some key crop insurance users do not want. Besides food stamps, crop insurance reform will be the big farm bill debate ahead. We heard little about that this week.
  

— TikTok’s future is uncertain after a lengthy grilling in Congress. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew tried to address national security concerns about the Chinese-owned video app yesterday, but he faced open hostility from both political parties. Support for a ban is growing among lawmakers and the public. Biden administration officials said that would probably require an act of Congress. Lawmakers from both parties shared concerns that the app, which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company, could be used as a tool of surveillance and propaganda by the Chinese government. Chew’s plan to safely store Americans’ data was met with pronounced skepticism.

A U.S. ban of TikTok could lead to a cumulative $431 billion gain in market value for tech giants Alphabet, Meta, and Snap, according to a Bernstein analysis, as each platform operates a short-form video experience that rivals TikTok. Forbes breaks down how much each company’s stock could rise (link).

Bottom line: U.S. concerns over TikTok dealt another blow to U.S./China relations.

— USTR Katherine Tai completes Senate testimony, to appear at House hearing today. Tai took criticism from both sides of the political aisle during a hearing Thursday at the Senate Finance Committee. Link to watch a video of the hearing or to read statements by Tai and Sens. Wyden and Crapo. Some highlights:

• A different trade policy approach confronted by both political parties. “At this moment we do not have tariff liberalization negotiations going on with a partner,” Tai said. Sen. Mike Crapo, the panel’s top Republican from Idaho, raised concerns with high tariffs and unscientific restrictions that penalize America’s farmers and ranchers; barriers that stifle manufacturing exports; the waiving of U.S intellectual property rights; and measures that unreasonably target the U.S. digital economy.

  While saying she was “open-minded” about the possibility of a future push on tariff reductions, Tai again talked about why the Biden administration’s trade policy takes a different route. “The traditional approach to free trade agreements being comprehensively tariff-liberalizing has led to winners and losers,” Tai said. “While it has been, in general, very good for our agricultural producers, the other parts of our economy feel like the playing field is not level.” You can understand how well that went over among farm-state lawmakers.

  Tai repeated the Biden administration has no intention of including tariff reduction in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which it is now negotiating with Vietnam, Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Fiji.

  Before any agreements are signed under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the administration must clear away several unresolved agricultural trade dispute, said Crapo. “You’re right, trade liberalization, tariff reductions, are not part of this negotiation,” said Tai. “Again, the agricultural barriers, the interests of our farmers, ranchers, agricultural producers, are a top-line priority for our trade agenda, and I will be looking for opportunities to fix these problems in any context I can.”

  “I don’t think I got the commitment I wanted, but we will continue this discussion,” said Crapo.

  Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) called for negotiations toward a free trade agreement with Britain. “I remain open-minded,” responded Tai.
  

• Vietnam a missed opportunity. Sen. Crapo said the U.S. won’t be going after Vietnamese tariffs, which remain high on U.S. poultry, dairy, beef, potatoes and apples. He stressed China and the European Union have negotiated trade deals with Vietnam that lower all of those tariffs. “While some of the tariff reductions in the EU and Chinese deals (with Vietnam) will take time to phase in fully, we lose ground every day that we remain on the sidelines,” Crapo said.

• GMO corn issue with Mexico. Tai pledged she would continue pressing Mexico on its biotech corn ban. “I assure you it is not my intention to let this go on indefinitely,” she said when Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) demanded the administration take the next step to challenge the ban under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. A 30-day period for technical consultations between the nations expires on April 7.

  “There is only one option, and on April 7 — that’s after 30 days — I would expect you to file a formal dispute settlement. Are you going to do that?” asked Grassley. “We’ve been talking for two years.”

  “You’re absolutely right, we have those tools for a reason, and I assure you, it is not my intention to allow this to go on indefinitely,” replied Tai, after offering to keep Grassley informed on steps in the negotiations. In her written testimony, Tai said that if technical consultations fail, “we will consider all options to fix this problem, including by taking additional steps under the USMCA.”

• Taiwan is vibrant democracy and vital trade partner in East Asia. Tai said Taiwan and the U.S. commenced a bilateral trade initiative last June. The deal is officially titled the U.S./Taiwan 21st Century Trade Initiative. The first round of was held in Taipei in January this year. A summary of the negotiations released last week identified five issues of concern for the U.S. side. They include customs management and trade facilitation, manufacturing regulations, domestic regulations for service industries, anti-corruption measures, and issues concerning small and medium-sized enterprises. The summary added that the negotiations were being done through the two sides’ unofficial representative offices. It added negotiations are being undertaken in accordance with the United States’ one China policy. Taiwan’s Cabinet says the signing of the trade initiative will be arranged once the final text is approved by both sides.
• Critical minerals deals. Senators on both sides of the aisle questioned Tai on efforts to negotiate agreements on critical minerals with the European Union and Japan, demanding greater transparency and congressional approval. A deal could allow firms in those countries to supply materials for electric vehicles that qualify for tax benefits in the administration’s massive climate law. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), chairman of the Finance Committee, pressed Tai to make public the negotiating objectives for the agreement before talks begin. He also demanded that Congress and the public be able to vet the pacts before they’re signed, and for lawmakers to weigh in on any agreement. “Congress needs a final say on any of these agreements,” Wyden said. The potential deals, which the U.S. has already started negotiating with the EU, have also drawn push-back from unions, a key political base that risks further complicating the Biden administration’s efforts. Neither the EU nor Japan are part of FTAs with the U.S., but the critical-mineral deal would grant both equivalent status as an American free-trade partner under the law. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), questioned that approach, saying that he found it “very odd” to give vehicles from countries that’s don’t have traditional free-trade agreements with the U.S. the same tax benefits as those that do.
• Fresh potatoes and Japan. Sens. Wyden and Crap both pushed Tai to confront Japan over its ban on fresh potatoes. Tai said she would be “delighted to raise the potato issue” with the Japanese, but she did not say she would demand an end to the ban in talks around the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said India has shut off the market for Washington State apples. “The retaliatory tariff environment is hurting our farmers,” she said.
• Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), before complaining about high poultry tariffs in India, greeted Tai by saying, “Let’s talk turkey.”

— How the U.S. is taking on China in EV batteries. When it comes to powering electric vehicles, China’s dominance is clear. The U.S. lags behind in most steps of the battery-making process, from sourcing raw materials to assembling components. In a video (link) the Wall Street Journal takes a close look at EV-battery production and explores whether the U.S. can overcome these disadvantages.

— The Biden’s administration is stepping up a campaign to build American influence in Africa, where the U.S. has lost ground to key rivals. The push comes amid a race to secure minerals that are critical to green energy, with Africa holding some of the world’s biggest supplies.

— Sound familiar? U.K. agriculture has searched the globe to fill the void of migrant labor since Brexit while still trying to supply supermarkets used to wholesale prices that barely cover costs. Keeping the shelves stocked is becoming a precarious — and murky — business for farmers and vulnerable workers. Link for more via Bloomberg.

— Alleged fraud linked to Covid-19 relief programs during the pandemic has cost taxpayers $3.2 billion, the IRS’ criminal investigation unit found after examining 975 related tax and money laundering cases. The fraud was most frequently linked to the Paycheck Protection Program, Economic Injury Disaster Loans and unemployment insurance.

— Scientists are creating personalized stem cells to treat incurable diseases. Created by reverse-engineering a patient’s own cells back to a stem-cell state, these cells behave similarly to embryonic cells in that they can grow into any type of cell. Researchers are hoping that they can grow into an array of healthy cells to treat diseases that now have no cure. A team at the National Institutes of Health is already leading a trial to treat macular degeneration, a leading cause of vision loss. This year, startup Aspen Neuroscience plans to test the approach in human trials to treat Parkinson’s, and the Mayo Clinic will start a trial to treat congenital heart disease. Link to more via the WSJ.

— Japan’s Foreign Ministry ordered a popular social media personality and lawmaker to turn in his passport, a week after lawmakers ousted him from parliament for never showing up for work, Kyodo News reported (link). Last week, the upper house of the legislature voted to strip Yoshikazu Higashitani — known by his online alias GaaSyy —of his status as a lawmaker, saying he never attended a single parliamentary session since being elected in June 2022. GaaSyy’s removal marks the first time in more than 70 years that parliament has stripped a lawmaker of their status.

— House agenda next week: Energy legislation will dominate the House next week as it takes up a package (HR 1) that seeks to chip away at the Biden administration’s climate agenda and increase domestic energy production. The measure from Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) assembled provisions from the Energy and Commerce, Natural Resources, and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, including language seeking to accelerate federal permitting for energy, forestry, and infrastructure projects, lower consumer energy costs, and reduce reliance on foreign-sourced critical minerals. The chamber is scheduled to meet Monday through Thursday next week.

The government response in East Palestine, Ohio, after the Norfolk Southern train derailment will be the subject of a Tuesday hearing by a House Energy and Commerce subpanel.

— The Senate next week could take up a measure (HJRes. 27) to repeal the Biden administration’s waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule, though that may depend on attendance, according to Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).

— Budget hearings will continue next week, with additional appearances by cabinet officials including:

• USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack on Tuesday with House Agriculture and Wednesday with Senate appropriators.
• Attorney General Merrick Garland on Tuesday with Senate appropriators and Wednesday with House appropriators.
• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley at House Armed Services on Wednesday.
• Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday with House appropriators and House Ways and Means.
• Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday with both House appropriators and Senate appropriators.
• Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Tuesday with House appropriators and Wednesday with Senate appropriators.
• Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough on Wednesday with House appropriators.

— The Senate Ethics Committee admonished Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) for soliciting campaign contributions for Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker from a Senate office building during a Fox News interview in November.

— Cotton AWP declines again. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton declined to 66.33 cents per pound, effective today (March 24), down from 68.58 cents per pound the prior week. It was the second time in 16 weeks the AWP has been under 70 cents per pound. The AWP is still more than 14 cents above the mark that would trigger any marketing loan benefits.

— Passport delays. Amid “unprecedented demand,” the current wait time for a regular U.S. passport has soared to “about 10 to 13 weeks, and for an expedited passport about seven to nine weeks,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday. The State Department is “getting 500,000 applications a week for passports,” which is 30% to 40% more applicants this year than last year, Blinken told a House Appropriations subcommittee budget hearing. Staffing and resources have been increased to deal with the surge, Blinken said.

— The U.S. launched air strikes against Iran-backed groups in Syria. The attack came after an American contractor was killed by a drone “of Iranian origin,” according to the Pentagon. The drone struck a base in north-eastern Syria where American troops are stationed to help Syrian Kurdish forces prevent a resurgence of Islamic State. American soldiers there have been the targets of 78 attacks since 2021.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum |