The Week Ahead: Jan. 5, 2025
— The House and Senate are both in session, though no hearings are scheduled as organizational efforts for the 119th Congress continue. — On Thursday, Jan. 9, Washington will host a service for former President Jimmy Carter, leading to a National Day of Mourning and a federal government closure. This will affect the release of several key reports: · Export Sales Report and Weekly Slaughter Report will be delayed until Friday. Carter will then be flown to Georgia and laid to rest in a private service for family and friends. — Trump era of Congress begins. As the 119th Congress convenes, Donald Trump’s enduring influence reshapes Washington, according to Roll Call (link). A striking 68% of House Republicans and 58% of House Democrats first took office after Trump’s 2016 election, reflecting his deep imprint on both parties. This marks a new era in which 63% of the House has no experience of a pre-Trump Washington. Trump’s return to the White House brings a GOP-dominated Congress more aligned with his priorities, with fewer internal dissenters. Meanwhile, House Democrats, bracing for the challenges ahead, are preparing to counter Trump’s policies, including perceived ties to wealthy allies like Elon Musk. The Senate, with its slower turnover, remains comparatively resistant to sweeping Trump-led changes but cannot escape his long shadow. As Sarah Binder of George Washington University notes, most Senate Republicans have shared a ballot with Trump, underscoring his reach. House dynamics promise energy and disruption, as newcomers grapple with institutional complexities while veterans like Ohio’s Jim Jordan and Texas’s Chip Roy embrace a confrontational approach to reshape Washington. — Trump backs single reconciliation bill strategy, Speaker Johnson says. At a House Republican retreat at Fort McNair in Washington, D.C., Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) revealed that President-elect Donald Trump supports passing a single, large-scale reconciliation bill. This approach contrasts with Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) preference for two separate bills: one early in the year and a tax-focused bill later. Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) aligned with Trump’s position, advocating for a comprehensive bill encompassing all of Trump’s priorities. The comments reflect ongoing divisions within the GOP over reconciliation strategy. Budget reconciliation procedure lets the Senate circumvent the 60-vote filibuster rule but limits legislation to fiscal matters. To use reconciliation, the House and Senate must first agree on a budget and then agree again on a bill. — Thune highlights challenges for Speaker Johnson amid narrow GOP majority. Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) expressed concerns about House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) ability to navigate a slim Republican majority, describing the task as a “really, really tough job.” Speaking on Meet the Press, Thune noted Johnson’s challenge of managing members with divergent priorities, especially given the GOP’s slim edge in the House. Johnson, re-elected as speaker with a razor-thin margin, faces demands from the House Freedom Caucus, including reversing Biden-era policies and prohibiting stock trading by Congress members. Thune emphasized the need for collaboration between GOP leaders in both chambers and the White House to advance their legislative agenda, citing border security as a top priority outlined by Johnson. — Some Democrats consider backing RFK Jr. for HHS role. As President-elect Trump prepares for his administration, his nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) is sparking debate. While many Democrats remain opposed due to Kennedy’s controversial vaccine views, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) are reportedly open to considering his confirmation. Their shared critiques of corporate influence over the food industry and alignment on health reform initiatives are key factors. Kennedy has advocated for policies promoting healthier food systems and has actively courted Republican and Democratic senators to secure the needed votes. While some Democrats might prioritize Kennedy’s health-focused agenda, his vaccine skepticism remains a major obstacle, raising questions about his ability to gain bipartisan support in a divided Senate. — Looming port strike: Contract talks resume amid automation dispute. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) will resume contract negotiations with port employers on Tuesday, Jan. 7, as the union threatens to strike at midnight on Jan. 16. Representing 47,000 cargo handlers across major U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, the ILA is seeking stronger protections against automation. Last week, shipping giant Maersk advised customers to clear cargo from affected ports ahead of the deadline. While most economists predict limited economic impact if the strike is brief, prolonged disruption could lead to ship congestion, increased container rates, and shortages, with potential losses ranging from $1 billion to $5 billion daily. — Biden administration proposes $8 billion arms sale to Israel amid ongoing Gaza conflict. The Biden administration notified Congress of an $8 billion weapons package for Israel, including bombs, missiles, and artillery shells. The sale, one of the largest since the Gaza conflict began in 2023, includes precision-guided munitions, AMRAAM and Hellfire missiles, and 155mm artillery rounds. While aimed at bolstering Israel’s defense capabilities, the proposal has drawn criticism from some Democrats concerned about civilian casualties in Gaza. Over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, with widespread devastation in the region. The move comes weeks before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, signaling potential shifts in U.S. policy. Congressional approval is required, with potential delays anticipated due to opposition from progressive lawmakers. — The White House said President Biden will go to New Orleans on Monday to mourn the 14 people killed in the apparent New Year’s terrorist attack, meeting with local officials and family members of the deceased. — Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s conservative prime minister, visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. — The College Football Playoff semifinal matchups are all set. Penn State will play Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl on Thursday, and Texas will face Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Friday. The winners of those two games will meet for the national championship on Jan. 20. — Winter storm brings severe weather across the U.S. A massive winter storm is sweeping across the U.S., bringing a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain that is expected to cause widespread disruptions through Sunday and Monday. The storm spans over 1,500 miles from eastern Colorado to Maryland and Delaware, with approximately 50 million people under winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings. · Travel chaos: Roads coated in ice have caused highway closures, including a 100-mile stretch of Interstate 70 in Kansas. Airports are bracing for delays and cancellations. As the storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic, areas like Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Virginia could see significant snowfall, with some locations bracing for the heaviest accumulation in a decade. Authorities urge residents to stay home and prepare for hazardous conditions. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) retained his gavel after a tense House vote on Friday (link), but the razor-thin GOP majority and internal divisions signal challenges ahead for advancing President-elect Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda. Rep. Keith Self (R-Tex.) and fellow holdout Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) backed down on the first ballot, after they were put on the phone with President-elect Donald Trump.
While Johnson secured last-minute support from key Republicans, dissent over spending reductions and legislative processes exposed fractures within the party. GOP hardliners, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), warned against backtracking on reform commitments, while others demanded a transparent, member-driven approach to legislation. Johnson’s ability to unify the GOP will be tested as he crafts reconciliation bills focused on Trump’s priorities, including tax cuts and border security. Shortly after House Freedom Caucus members backed Johnson, they sent a letter to their colleagues with a list of demands they expect from the speaker. Link Those demands include quickly reversing Biden/Harris administration decisions, implementing hardline border security policies and ensuring only U.S. citizens can vote in elections (already the law).
The House’s slim margin — 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats — is set to narrow further with members leaving for the Trump administration, heightening the stakes for party-line measures. With dissenters capable of derailing key votes and invoking a “motion to vacate,” Johnson faces a precarious balancing act to deliver on his promises.
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— House adopts rules package expanding Johnson’s protections. It will now take nine members of the Republican conference to trigger a motion to vacate the speakership, a threshold that was just a single member when the GOP opted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last Congress. House Democrats railed against the change, noting it’s the first time in history that the minority party can’t introduce a motion to vacate.
Another change in the rules package is language that limits votes on suspensions measures — an expedited process requiring two-thirds support for passage — to just Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays. House lawmakers have recently used that procedure on days later in the week, like Friday, to pass a short-term government funding bill. The rule limiting suspension votes to Monday through Wednesday was in place prior to 2021, when House Democrats changed it for the 117th Congress, due in part to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic at the time. If this new rule had been in place for the 118th Congress, the House would have been unable to take up the current stopgap spending law that passed the House late Dec. 20 — a Friday — under suspension. The continuing resolution expires March 14 —a Friday — which means the rule change will have implications for passage of final fiscal year 2025 spending bills during the next two months.
The House adopted the new rules package on a 215-209 vote late Friday.
— Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) listed his legislative priorities, including “border security, extending the tax relief Republicans delivered during the first Trump administration, lifting burdensome and expensive government regulations … providing for our nation’s defense in an increasingly unstable world, bringing appropriations bills to the floor for serious deliberations… [and] an overdue farm bill.”
— Trump nominees face Senate confirmation hearings. President-elect Donald Trump’s key nominees are set for Senate confirmation hearings. Scheduled for the week of Jan. 13, the hearings include:
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): Nominee for Secretary of State
- Former Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.): Nominee for Veterans Affairs Secretary
- Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.): Nominee for Environmental Protection Agency Administrator
- USDA Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins
— Key upcoming events in U.S. politics:
- Jan. 27-29: House Republican Retreat
The House Republican retreat, also known as the issues conference, will be held at Trump National Doral in South Florida. This comes a week after former President Donald Trump returns to office. - Jan. 28: Special Election Primaries in Florida
Florida will hold special election primaries to fill the vacant seats of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned in November, and Rep. Michael Waltz, who has been tapped as Trump’s national security adviser. Both seats, considered strong Republican strongholds, have Trump-endorsed candidates. The vacancies may temporarily affect House GOP leadership’s voting power. - Feb. 3: Statutory Date for the President’s Budget Release
The traditional deadline for the release of the president’s budget request falls on Feb. 3. However, as this marks the start of a new administration, delays are expected. This milestone serves as a starting point for fiscal 2026 planning, even as work continues on the current fiscal year.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Jan. 6
- President Joe Biden will travel to New Orleans, Louisiana, and then to California.
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on Economic Outlook and Financial Stability at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics in Michigan.
- Electoral results certification.
Tuesday, Jan. 7
· Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
· Congressional Black Caucus. Congressional Black Caucus swearing-in ceremony for the member of the 119th Congress.
· U.S. arms trade. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “The Hidden Costs: Transparency and the U.S. Arms Trade.”
· U.S./China cooperation. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “Re-Kindling the U.S./-China S&T (science and technology) Relationship: Challenges and Opportunities.”
· Carter tribute. U.S. Congress holds a Congressional Tribute event for the late Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States.
Wednesday, Jan. 8
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the Economic Outlook at an event in Paris, France.
· Carter lies in state. U.S. Congress holds an event for former President Jimmy Carter who will lie in state while the military maintains a guard of honor at the US Capitol through Jan. 9.
· SAF outlook. Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Can They Meet 2050 Climate Goals?”
· U.S./Japan relations. Henry L. Stimson Center discussion on “The U.S./Japan Alliance for the Future.”
· Commodity derivatives. Brookings Institution discussion on “Commodity derivatives regulation: Where do we go from here?” Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam participates.
· Outlook for 119th Congress. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “The Woebegone 118th Congress — and What to Expect for the 119th.”
· Farm Credit funding. Farm Credit Administration meeting for an update on Farm Credit System funding conditions.
· FTC outlook. Brookings Institution discussion on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)'s accomplishments, challenges, and its future under new leadership. FTC Chair Lina Khan delivers remarks.
· Russia situation. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “Russia’s Difficult Road to Freedom.”
Thursday, Jan. 9
· National Day of Mourning. U.S. gov’t offices are closed for the funeral for former President Jimmy Carter. U.S. stock and financial markets are closed while agricultural commodity markets will close early. The bond market will close early at 2 p.m. ET. The funeral will be Thursday morning at 10 a.m. ET at the National Cathedral. President Joe Biden is expected to deliver a eulogy. Biden was scheduled to travel to Rome and the Vatican through Jan. 12 and will with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, Pope Francis, and others. It’s unclear if the departure will be delayed.
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation at the California Bankers Association. Philadelphia Fed President Partick Harker, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak.
· Trump tariffs. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Trump, trade, and tariffs: The global economy in 2025.”
· Taiwan security. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “What do people in Taiwan and the United States think about Taiwan’s security situation?”
· Climate adaptation. U.S. Geological Survey virtual meeting of the Advisory Council for Climate Adaptation Science (ACCAS) for ACCAS subcommittee progress to date and next steps and priorities for subcommittees.
· Executive order actions for Trump. Cato Institute forum on “Executive Orders That the Trump Administration Should Revoke or Amend.”
· Outlook for Congress. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “The 119th Congress: What Lies Ahead.”
Friday, Jan. 10
· U.S./China situation. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “How will artificial intelligence impact security relations between the United States and China? U.S. and Chinese perspectives.”
· 2025 outlook. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “2025 preview: What Might Be the Big Stories Shaping the Americas?” including the outlook for Venezuela, Argentina’s economic reforms, and the future of U.S./Mexico relations.
· Weather: U.S. and European agencies will report on last year’s global temperature.
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
The Employment Situation report for December 2024 is scheduled on Friday, Jan. 10. This report, also known as the jobs report, is a key economic indicator that provides data on job growth, unemployment, and wage growth for the previous month. It’s typically one of the most closely watched economic releases, as it offers insights into the health of the labor market and the broader economy. Payrolls likely increased 160,000 in December, when the labor market moved beyond distortions caused by hurricanes and strike activity in previous months, according to the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be down from 227,000 in November. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth is seen cooling a touch from a month earlier.
Also on Friday, investors will get earnings releases from S&P 500 members Constellation Brands, Delta Airlines, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. The key earnings action begins with big banks reporting on Jan. 15.
The Consumer Electronics Show is scheduled from Tuesday to Friday. Nvidia top boss Jensen Huang is expected to give a speech.
On Friday the Supreme Court will hear arguments in the highly anticipated TikTok ban case. President Joe Biden’s Justice Department urged justices to uphold the law despite Trump’s argument that he could negotiate a deal after his inauguration later this month. The department said TikTok hasn’t demonstrated it can prevail in its case to justify a pause, and that Trump didn’t argue that the company could succeed. The government contends that continuing Chinese control over TikTok would let a foreign adversary collect data on Americans and spread propaganda. “Congress and the Executive Branch agree” that China’s control of TikTok through ByteDance “poses a profound national-security threat,” U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote in the government’s filing. Trump said last month he now has a “warm spot” in his heart for TikTok because it helped sway young voters to his side in the November election.
Monday, Jan. 6
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on Economic Outlook and Financial Stability at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics in Michigan.
- Motor Vehicle Sales
- PMI Composite Final
- Factory Orders
Tuesday, Jan. 7
- Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
- U.S. longshoremen are expected to resume contract talks with port employers.
- CES kicks off in Las Vegas.
- India publishes its first estimate of GDP for the fiscal year ending in March.
- EU publishes Eurozone CPI.
- International Trade
- ISM Services Index
- JOLTS
Wednesday, Jan. 8
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the Economic Outlook at an event in Paris, France.
- ADP Employment Report
- Consumer Credit
- FOMC Minutes: The minutes should shed light on the central bank’s “closer call” to cut rates in its December decision.
Thursday, Jan. 9
- Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Reflections on 2024: Monetary Policy, Economic Performance, and Lessons for Banking Regulation at the California Bankers Association. Philadelphia Fed President Partick Harker, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak.
- Jobless Claims
- Wholesale Trade
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Money Supply
- China will report inflation data, as it tries to ward off deflation.
- Mexico reports CPI
Friday, Jan. 10
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
The ag focus is on Friday with USDA’s monthly supply and demand updates. China will also publish its monthly crops report on Friday. Purdue’s barometer for the U.S. ag economy comes Tuesday.
The energy focus will be whether the recent crude oil price rally has any more oomph.
Monday, Jan. 6
Ag reports and events:
- CFTC Commitments of Traders (delayed from Friday by the holiday)
- Export Inspections
- Dairy Products
Energy reports and events:
- ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
- Brent futures for February expire
- Holiday: Iraq, Russia, Greece, Venezuela
Tuesday, Jan. 7
Ag reports and events:
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
- Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
Energy reports and events:
- Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference, Miami; thru Wed.
- API US inventory report
- Holiday: Egypt, Kazakhstan, Russia
Wednesday, Jan. 8
Ag reports and events:
Energy reports and events:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Weekly Ethanol Production
- EIA Natural Gas Report
- BTC loading program (February)
- Holiday: Russia
Thursday, Jan. 9
Ag reports and events:
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
Energy reports and events:
· Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
· Holiday: Panama
Friday, Jan. 10
Ag reports and events:
- China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board inventory, export and output data for December
- Export Sales
- WASDE
- Cotton Ginnings
- Crop Production
- Crop Production - Annual
- Grain Stocks
- Rice Stocks
- Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
- Slaughter Weekly
- Peanut Prices
- Cotton: World Markets and Trade
- Grains: World Markets and Trade
- Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
- World Agricultural Production
- Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
- U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
Energy reports and events:
- Genscape weekly crude inventory report
- ICE gasoil futures for January expire
- CFTC Commitments of Traders (may be delayed by Thursday gov’t closure)
- ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
- Baker-Hughes Rig Count
- Holiday: Japan, Azerbaijan
| KEY DATES IN JANUARY |
6: House certification of 2024 presidential election
8: First Social Security benefit checks of the year; cost of living adjustment is 2.5%
9: Day of Mourning for the late former President Jimmy Carter
10: Bureau of Labor Statistics December employment situation report
10: USDA Annual Summary, WASDE, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat/Canola Seedings
15: BLS consumer price index report (inflation)
15: Quarterly estimated taxes due
15: Last day to enroll in a 2025 health plan via HealthCare.gov
20: Inauguration Day
20: College football national championship
24: USDA Food Price Outlook
26: AFC and NFC football championships
27: (tentative) First day IRS will begin accepting 2024 federal tax returns
28: Florida’s 1st and 6th special primaries
31: Employers and financial institutions should send out W-2 and 1099 tax forms
31: Federal Open Market Committee meets
31: USDA Cattle
| LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |