McCarthy to Bring Motion-to-Vacate Resolution Up for Vote Early This Afternoon

Small refiners challenge EPA’s denial of RFS exemptions in ongoing court battle

Jim Wiesemeyer

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October 03, 2023 09:01 AM

Small refiners challenge EPA’s denial of RFS exemptions in ongoing court battle

Today’s Digital Newspaper

MARKET FOCUS

USDA daily export sales:
— 220,000 MT soft red winter wheat to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
— 265,000 MT soybeans to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
Investors pulled $78.6 billion from U.S.-based taxable bond funds
Fed maintains consistent stance on monetary policy amid inflation concerns
Strong dollar good for American consumers — but bad news for rest of world
Price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, surged to $95 per barrel
U.S. shale producers maintain cautious drilling approach despite soaring oil prices
Copper prices experienced a decline
Ag markets today
StoneX raises corn, soybean crop estimates
Malaysia proposes cut to palm oil tax, action against rice hoarders
Malaysia considers expansion of B10 biodiesel for industrial sector
Malaysian exchange to launch soyoil futures
Ag trade update
Drought, high temps prompt 6% cut in U.S. hydroelectric power generation forecast
NWS weather outlook
Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

Poland eases border passage for Ukrainian grain, easing tensions
Ukraine grain exports drop 10% in September
Pentagon has $5.2 billion allocated for providing weaponry and security aid to Ukraine

POLICY

Sharp increase in ERP payments as USDA raced to disburse relief funds
SNAP benefits see 12.5% increase with adjusted eligibility requirements through 2024
Democrat-leaning group advocates for three months of paid family leave in farm bill

PERSONNEL

VP Kamala Harris will swear in Laphonza Butler this afternoon

CHINA

Schumer leads bipartisan delegation on Asia trip
Chinese exports to G7 nations decline 7%, shift ftoward geopolitically aligned trade
A rural Michigan town is latest battleground in U.S./China clash
China flexes green thumb as it pursues agricultural self-reliance
Reuters: U.S. warned China to expect updated export curbs in October

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

Small refiners challenge EPA’s denial of RFS exemptions in ongoing court battle

LIVESTOCK & FOOD INDUSTRY

Judge dismisses lawsuit against McDonald’s & Wendy’s over hamburger size ads
Cargill expects chicken industry turnaround amid challenging
USDA seeks approval to gather additional info for organic dairy variance requests

HEALTH UPDATE

FDA declines to approve Eli Lilly’s drug to treat eczema

CONGRESS

McCarthy to bring motion-to-vacate resolution up for vote early this afternoon
Update on fiscal year 2024 appropriations bills

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

Richest people in America are $500 billion wealthier than a year ago
Today’s calendar of events

MARKET FOCUS

— Equities today: Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 130 points lower. In Asia, Japan -1.6%. Hong Kong -2.7%. China +0.1%. India -0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%.

U.S. equities yesterday: Tech stocks advanced to start the week while the Dow declined, and the S&P 500 was little changed. The Dow was down 74.15 points, 0.22%, at 33,433.35. The Nasdaq gained 88.45 points, 0.67%, at 13,307.77. The S&P 500 edged up 0.34 point, 0.01%, at 4,288.39.

Investors pulled $78.6 billion from U.S.-based taxable bond funds in the 12 months through August, according to Morningstar. That is well below the nearly $300 billion they pulled from equities over the same period but a painful sum, regardless, for asset managers hoping for a windfall.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Corn: December corn rose 12 cents to $4.88 3/4, ending the session above the 10, 20- and 40-day moving averages amid the largest daily gain since July 24.
Soy complex: November soybeans rose 2 cents to $12.77 after marking the lowest intraday level since June 29. December meal fell $6.90 to $374.30, the lowest close since June 12, while December soyoil rallied 160 points to 57.43 cents, ending the session above the 200-day moving average.
Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 23 1/4 cents to $5.64 3/4 and near the session high. December HRW wheat gained 13 cents to $6.76 3/4 and nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 9 1/2 cents before settling at $7.18 3/4.
Cotton: December cotton rose 60 points to 87.75 cents, ending near the session high and above the 20- and 10-day moving averages.
Cattle: December live cattle rose 42 1/2 cents to $188.35 and nearer the session low. November feeder cattle gained 80 cents to $255.70 and nearer the session low.
Hogs: December lean hog futures led contracts lower Monday, falling $2.275 to $69.50 and settling on session lows. Nearby October futures fell 35 cents to $79.85.

— Ag markets today: Corn and soybean futures failed to build on Monday’s gains and traded lower overnight, while wheat had a mixed tone. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading mostly 2 cents lower, soybeans were 10 to 13 cents lower, SRW wheat was narrowly mixed, HRW wheat was 2 to 5 cents lower and HRS wheat was mostly 1 to 2 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were modestly lower, and the U.S. dollar index was more than 200 points higher.

Wholesale beef prices strengthen. Boxed beef prices firmed $2.30 for Choice and 94 cents for Select on Monday, while packers moved a solid 105 loads amid the price strength. While the $300.00 area appears to be a relative price floor for Choice beef, packers have struggled to find sustained retailer demand much above that level.

Cash hog fundamentals weaken. The CME lean hog index is down 74 cents to $84.84 (as of Sept. 29), marking the biggest daily decline on the pullback from the recent highs and the lowest level since June 9 when prices were climbing. The pork cutout value fell $1.19 to $96.04, the lowest level since Sept. 7.

— Quotes of note:

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said one more hike may be needed, followed by a hold for some time at higher levels.
Magnifying the expertise of top-performing employees via AI. “I think what I’m most excited about is actually kind of really using AI to further the edge that a company has by empowering their best people to be truly extraordinary. With copilot for developers, we see productivity gains in the top developers on the order of 80%. — Marco Argenti, CIO, Goldman Sachs.

— Fed maintains consistent stance on monetary policy amid inflation concerns. Following the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where updated projections indicated the need for one more rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy has remained relatively unchanged. Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have emphasized the likelihood of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period to combat elevated inflation levels, with a focus on bringing inflation down to their 2% target.

Since the meeting, there has been minimal deviation in the guidance provided by Fed officials. Powell reaffirmed in a recent speech that monetary policy would remain restrictive “for some time,” while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed her willingness to support another rate hike this year if progress on inflation stalls or falls short of the 2% target. Additionally, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr suggested that rates are currently “at or very near” a sufficiently restrictive level, and the key question is how long they will need to stay restrictive to achieve their goals, which he anticipates will take “some time.”

Fed officials have not observed significant data that would prompt them to alter the stance adopted in September or signal a rapid decline in inflation to their target. Instead, their central concern remains elevated inflation levels, maintaining a consistent approach to monetary policy.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index continued to gain, with the euro and British pound slightly weaker against the greenback. The U.S. dollar reached its highest mark of the year and has risen 6.6% since July. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was higher, trading around 4.74%, with a mostly higher tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures remained lower, but off their lows seen earlier, with U.S. crude around $88.35 per barrel and Brent around $90.10 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were lower, with gold around $1,841 per troy ounce and silver around $21.25 per troy ounce.

— Return of the strong dollar is good for American consumers — but bad news for the rest of the world. In many countries, the combination of higher rates, a stronger U.S. currency and elevated oil prices is threatening lower growth and more financial vulnerability. The greenback on Monday reached its highest level of the year, bringing its gain since mid-July to 6.6%. The dollar’s strength has been driven by surging Treasury yields. Investors have grown more convinced of the U.S. economy’s resilience — and that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep borrowing costs higher for longer than it would do in a typical business cycle. Link to more via the Wall Street Journal.

— Price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, surged to $95 per barrel (from roughly $70 in May). The secretary-general of OPEC+, the oil cartel, told the BBC that he expects high prices to persist, with daily demand increasing by some 2.4 million. Saudi Arabia and Russia will limit supplies until the end of the year, having started doing so in the spring.

— U.S. shale producers maintain cautious drilling approach despite soaring oil prices, citing Biden’s fossil fuel policy. U.S. shale producers are planning to exercise restraint in their drilling activities, even in the face of oil prices potentially exceeding $100 per barrel. This strategy is rooted in their commitment to financial discipline amid what they perceive as President Joe Biden’s unwavering stance against fossil fuel production. Many of these companies point to the Biden administration’s decisions to limit drilling on federal lands and waters as the primary cause for their investment constraints. Additionally, ongoing permitting delays and what they view as antagonistic rhetoric from the administration have contributed to their cautious approach. Some industry figures, such as Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm, believe that political considerations play a significant role in the administration’s approach, driven by the belief that it aligns with their base’s preferences. Despite these restrictions, U.S. shale companies have directed a substantial portion of their capital towards production this year, even as the number of active U.S. oil rigs has decreased.

— Copper prices experienced a decline due to a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and discouraging manufacturing data from key economies, which have cast a shadow on the demand prospects for the industrial metal. Notably, copper briefly dipped below $8,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, marking the first time it has done so since late May. This decline reflects concerns about the impact of tightening monetary policies and economic uncertainties on the copper market.

— USDA daily export sales:
• 220,000 MT soft red winter wheat to China during 2023-2024 marketing year
• 265,000 MT soybeans to China during 2023-2024 marketing year

— StoneX raises corn, soybean crop estimates. Commodity brokerage firm StoneX estimates the U.S. corn crop at 15.202 billion bu. on an average yield of 175.5 bu. per acre. That is up from the firm’s September forecasts of 15.102 billion bu. and a yield of 175 bu. per acre. In September, USDA estimated the corn crop at 15.134 billion bu. on a yield of 173.8 bu. per acre. StoneX estimates the U.S. soybean crop at 4.175 billion bu. on a yield of 50.4 bu. per acre. That is up from its September forecasts of 4.144 billion bu. and 50.1 bu. per acre. In September, USDA estimated the soybean crop at 4.146 billion bu. on a yield of 50.1 bu. per acre. StoneX says the estimates are for USDA’s final production number and assume USDA’s harvested acreage.

— Malaysia proposes cut to palm oil tax, action against rice hoarders. Malaysia’s finance ministry has proposed a cut in windfall levy for palm oil producers in the states of Sabah and Sarawak to 1.5% from 3%, state news agency Bernama reported. Malaysia imposes a windfall levy of 3% on palm oil prices above 3,000 ringgit ($635.39) per metric in Peninsular Malaysia and above 3,500 ringgit per ton in Sabah and Sarawak. Meanwhile, the country’s prime minister threatened legal action against anyone found hoarding rice, as concern over rising prices and supply shortages have led to consumers stockpiling.

— Malaysia considers expansion of B10 biodiesel for industrial sector. Malaysia is considering expansion of its B10 biodiesel program, which requires the mandatory use of 10% palm oil, to the industrial sector, the country’s ag ministry said. Malaysia currently implements the B10 program only for the transportation sector.

— Malaysian exchange to launch soyoil futures. Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD), known for offering the most liquid palm oil futures in the world, is planning to launch soyoil futures in the first quarter of the next year, a senior exchange official said. The exchange has been working on finalizing the contract specifications before the contract’s launch in early 2024. BMD will first create a benchmark soyoil contract for Asian buyers and later could launch contracts for other edible oils such as sunflower oil, said the director of derivatives markets at BMD.

— Ag trade update: Japan is seeking 91,234 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender.

— Drought and high temperatures prompt 6% cut in U.S. hydroelectric power generation forecast. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down its forecast for total U.S. hydroelectric power generation for the year, citing above-normal temperatures in May and persistent drought conditions in the Northwest. Approximately half of the nation’s hydropower originates from the Northwest region, but reduced water availability during the first half of the year resulted in a significant 24% decline in output compared to the same period the previous year. Therefore, the EIA lowered its outlook for hydroelectric power generation in the United States by 6%. This reduction is somewhat offset by better-than-expected generation in California, where abundant winter precipitation and a substantial Sierra Nevada snowpack have filled reservoirs and increased power generation capacity.

— NWS weather outlook: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday... ...Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming.

Items in Pro Farmer’s First Thing Today include:

• Corn and beans lower, wheat mixed overnight
• Cordonnier keeps U.S. yield, production estimates unchanged
• Crop progress report highlights
• Argentina extends ‘agro dollar’ program

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Poland eases border passage for Ukrainian grain, easing tensions in long-standing dispute. Poland recently agreed to facilitate the transit of Ukrainian grain through its borders, a move that brings optimism for resolving a protracted dispute between the two nations. Poland, along with several other central European countries, had previously imposed restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports, citing concerns over market distortions within its domestic agricultural sector.

— Ukraine grain exports drop 10% in September. Ukrainian grain exports fell 10% to 2.1 MMT in September versus August due to difficulties with export logistics and Russian shelling of key export facilities, the UCAB agricultural business association said. UCAB expects a “gradual increase” in grain export this month as more shipments leave via the temporary humanitarian corridor.

— Pentagon currently has $5.2 billion allocated for providing weaponry and security assistance to Ukraine. However, this funding is expected to last only for a few more months, according to the Wall Street Journal (link). While this amount represents roughly 12% of the total $43.9 billion in security assistance sent by the U.S. to Ukraine, there is no additional funding available for a longer-term program aimed at refurbishing Ukraine’s military. Biden administration officials have acknowledged this limitation.

POLICY UPDATE

— Sharp increase in ERP payments as USDA raced to disburse relief funds ahead of potential government shutdown. In the latest week, there was a notable surge in payments made under Phase 2 of the Emergency Relief Program (ERP), as USDA intensified efforts to distribute funds in anticipation of a possible government shutdown that did not occur. The weekly data reveals an increase in overall ERP payments, which now stand at $8.16 billion, up from the previous week’s figure of $7.46 billion. Phase 2 ERP payments experienced a significant boost, climbing to $714.95 million distributed to 9,955 recipients, compared to the previous week’s $11.75 million distributed to 6,887 recipients. However, there have been no significant changes reported in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payouts in the latest week.

— SNAP benefits see a 12.5% increase with adjusted eligibility requirements through 2024. Effective from Oct. 1, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamps), which provides crucial assistance to millions of Americans for purchasing nutritious groceries, has received a boost to address rising living costs and inflation. This program, overseen by the USDA Food and Nutrition Service under the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008, has adjusted its maximum allotments for the upcoming year based on the Consumer Price Index from June 2022.

The recent changes translate to a 12.5% increase in SNAP benefits compared to the previous year. Maximum allotments have been raised in various increments for different states and territories, including the 48 contiguous states, the District of Columbia, Alaska, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

For instance, a family of four residing in the continental U.S. and Washington, D.C., is now eligible for a maximum benefit of $973. Families of four in Alaska can receive between $1,248 and $1,937, in Guam $1,434, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands $1,251. The sole exception is Hawaii, where the maximum allotment has decreased, resulting in a payment of $1,759 for a family of four.

The shelter cap value, a crucial factor in determining eligibility, has increased to $672 for the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia.

To qualify for SNAP benefits, individuals must apply in the state where they currently reside and meet specific requirements, including resource and income limits established by the USDA. Link to eligibility details.

— Democrat-leaning group advocates for three months of paid family leave in farm bill. The One Country Project, a Democrat-leaning organization founded by former farm-state senators Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, proposed the inclusion of a paid family and medical leave system in the farm bill. This program would provide up to three months of paid family and medical leave annually, funded through a 1% income tax, with most of the contribution coming from employers.

The One Country Project argues that rural communities have been neglected for years, leading to disparities in access to essential services compared to other regions of the country.

Under the proposed program, workers would be eligible for up to 12 weeks of paid leave for various reasons, including the birth or adoption of a child, family illness or death, or personal recuperation from illness. Those earning less than 200% of the poverty line would receive a full replacement wage, tapering off to 70% for workers with incomes exceeding 400% of the poverty threshold.

The funding mechanism for the Family and Medical Leave Yearly program involves a 1% tax on wages, with employers contributing 75% of the funds. The tax would apply to all workers, and firms with more than 25 employees would be subject to the tax. The existing federal program offering 12 weeks of unpaid family and medical leave per year would continue to be in effect.

President Biden previously endorsed the idea of a paid family leave program during his State of the Union address in January, although it encountered limited support in Congress, particularly among Republicans who emphasize fiscal restraint.

PERSONNEL

— President Biden Vice President Kamala Harris will swear in Laphonza Butler, the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s successor, to the U.S. Senate at 3 p.m. ET.

CHINA UPDATE

— Schumer leads bipartisan delegation on Asia trip, aiming to address U.S.-China relations. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) s set to embark on a significant visit to China as part of a bipartisan three-country tour across Asia, signaling the importance of the trip. Schumer has a long history as a China hawk. He plans to focus on advancing U.S. economic and national security interests in the region, amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. Schumer will be accompanied by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, and the delegation, including Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Kennedy (R-La.), and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), will also visit South Korea and Japan.

Of note: The goal is to secure a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The senators intend to engage with government officials, business leaders, and U.S. companies operating in each country during their trip. The delegation’s departure is scheduled after the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s funeral in San Francisco, and their trip aligns with a Senate recess next week.

Schumer plans to address several key issues during his China visit, including semiconductor manufacturing, human rights concerns, China’s role in the fentanyl crisis in the United States, and foreign policy. He also seeks to explore potential areas for cooperation, aligning with recent priorities of the Biden administration. The U.S. has accused China of committing genocide against the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang and has been responding to China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan by investing in Indo-Pacific deterrence strategies.

Earlier high-level U.S. government visits to China this year were by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, all aimed at addressing critical issues in U.S./China relations.

— Chinese exports to G7 nations decline by 7%, shift focus toward geopolitically aligned trade partners. Chinese exports to the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations have seen a notable 7% decrease between March 2022 and August of the current year, as reported by Trade Data Monitor based in Geneva.

Meanwhile, recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau highlights that China’s share of U.S. goods imports has reached its lowest point since 2006 in the 12 months through July. While the U.S. remains China’s largest export market, Beijing is actively diversifying its trade relationships, with a growing focus on nations that align more closely with its geopolitical objectives. These nations include Singapore, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates, and Kyrgyzstan.

Trade between Europe and China continues to maintain its strength, although certain vulnerabilities are becoming evident. Over the past 18 months, Chinese exports to Germany and the U.K. have both experienced nearly a 7% decline when compared to the corresponding period leading up to a significant geopolitical event.

— A rural Michigan town is the latest battleground in the U.S./China clash. Firestorms over Chinese investments, like a battery factory in Green Charter Township, are erupting as officials weigh the risks of taking money from an adversary. Link to New York Times article.

— China flexes green thumb as it pursues agricultural self-reliance. Beijing is investing even more time and resources into ensuring agricultural stability for the years to come. Link to South China Morning Post article.

— Reuters: U.S. warned China to expect updated export curbs in October: U.S. official. The Commerce Department, which oversees export controls, is working on an update of export restrictions first released last year. Link to Reuters article.

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Small refiners challenge EPA’s denial of RFS exemptions in ongoing court battle. Two small refiners are once again challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) decision to deny small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The legal proceedings took place in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, where one of the refiners called on the court to vacate the EPA’s denials in April and June 2022 and reinstate the SREs granted for 2017-2018. Meanwhile, the other refiner sought either the granting of the exemptions or alternative relief.

However, Judge Patrick Higginbotham raised concerns about whether these cases should be viewed as reflecting a national decision warranting consideration in the DC Circuit. The EPA argued that the agency had evaluated the SREs and made a singular determination concerning them. In contrast, the refiners contended that each company had specific needs and circumstances that justified keeping the case in the Fifth Circuit.

The outcome of this legal battle remains uncertain, including whether the Fifth Circuit will order the cases to be transferred to the DC Circuit. This ongoing litigation adds to the lengthy history of disputes involving small refiners in the RFS program.

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

— Judge dismisses lawsuit against McDonald’s and Wendy’s over hamburger size advertising. A U.S. District Judge, Hector Gonzalez, has delivered a victory for the fast-food industry by dismissing a lawsuit that accused both McDonald’s and Wendy’s of deceptive advertising regarding the size of their hamburgers. The judge’s ruling stemmed from a lack of evidence demonstrating that the fast-food chains had provided smaller burgers than advertised or that the plaintiff had encountered advertisements for the McDonald’s Big Mac and Wendy’s Bourbon Bacon Cheeseburger, which were central to the lawsuit. This favorable outcome is expected to strengthen the legal position of other fast-food chains, including Yum! Brands’ Taco Bell and Restaurant Brands’ Burger King, which are currently facing similar lawsuits.

— Cargill expects chicken industry turnaround amid challenging times. Cargill Inc., a major crop trader, found itself amid the chicken industry’s worst downturn in years shortly after making a multi-billion dollar bet on U.S. chicken in 2021. Despite this rocky start, the sector is showing signs of a much-needed recovery, which Cargill anticipates will occur “months, not years” from now, Hans Kabat, the president of the company’s North American protein business, told Bloomberg (link).

When Cargill initially announced the acquisition of chicken producer Sanderson Farms Inc., they were optimistic, driven by high demand for chicken products and soaring prices. However, the market landscape shifted during the lengthy process of closing the deal, marked by increased chicken supply and consumers reducing purchases due to rising meat prices amid inflation. This led to an oversupply of chickens with elevated feed costs.

In recent months, the domestic chicken sector has started to stabilize, with some companies scaling back production to rebalance the market. Falling feed costs, including a nearly 30% drop in corn futures, have further aided the recovery.

Despite the initial challenges, Cargill remains committed to the poultry industry, recognizing its importance within the company’s protein segment. Protein is a significant part of Cargill’s business, and the chicken industry’s ability to quickly adapt to changing conditions, due to the short life cycle of birds, provides hope for a brighter future. However, the beef sector is expected to face more prolonged challenges, as cattle take significantly longer to reach market weight.

Cargill aims to meet consumer demands by expanding its offerings of case-ready cuts, marinated meats, and tray packs while remaining bullish on the long-term prospects of both the chicken and beef industries, as global protein demand is expected to persist for decades.

— USDA seeks approval to gather additional information for organic dairy variance requests. USDA is seeking approval to collect supplementary information related to variance requests in the context of organic dairy regulations. Earlier this year, a final rule concerning the Origin of Livestock within organic regulations for dairy was implemented, permitting small producers to request variances from program regulations. However, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) now requires additional data from those seeking variances and is in the process of obtaining clearance for this purpose.

The new information collected by AMS will play a crucial role in determining whether individual small certified organic dairy operations are granted or denied a variance from USDA organic regulations regarding the origin of livestock. A notice regarding this matter has been published in the Federal Register, initiating a 30-day comment period for stakeholders and interested parties to provide feedback on the proposed data collection.

HEALTH UPDATE

— FDA declines to approve Eli Lilly’s drug to treat eczema. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declined to approve Eli Lilly’s drug to treat a type of skin disease due to certain findings during an inspection of a contract manufacturer, the drugmaker said.

CONGRESS

— McCarthy will bring motion-to-vacate resolution up for a vote during today’s first vote series early this afternoon. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) took action to remove Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the current Speaker of the U.S. House and a fellow member of the Republican Party. Gaetz initiated a “motion to vacate,” signaling his intent to call for a vote to depose the Speaker. This move had been anticipated, as Gaetz had previously vowed to take such action in response to McCarthy’s decision to advance a bill preventing a government shutdown on a recent Saturday. According to House rules, lawmakers are likely to vote on this motion within the next two days. McCarthy made a late Monday call to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). He won’t try to save McCarthy without approval from his Democratic colleagues. McCarthy probably can’t win with Republican votes alone. He can only lose four votes if all members are present and casting votes. The House Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference will both meet separately at 9 a.m. ET. Of note: McCarthy has been a good fundraiser for 2024.

Bottom line: Democrats don’t necessarily have to affirmatively vote for McCarthy, they just have to take steps like voting to table or voting “present” that give him more room to maneuver. But any such votes might come with a price. Democrats could pressure McCarthy for concessions if they’re going to save him.

If McCarthy is no longer speaker, he would be the one to choose his temporary successor, not those who orchestrated his ouster. It would be the first person on a list drawn up by McCarthy, and that person would preside over the selection of a new speaker.

— Update on fiscal year 2024 appropriations bills.

House passed three full year bills the week of Sept. 25; two more on tap week of Oct. 2
- Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations passed last week by largely party-line votes
  - Lawmakers removed $300 million for Ukraine from Defense bill and passed in separate legislation (H.R. 5692)
- Agriculture-FDA bill rejected over abortion pill provision, farm program cuts
- Energy and Water, Legislative Branch bills on the floor this week
- Transportation-HUD, Interior could come to the floor week of Oct. 9
Senate still debating bipartisan minibus
- Package to fund Ag-FDA, MilCon-VA and T-HUD stalled amid a hold from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

— Richest people in America are $500 billion wealthier than a year ago, aided by rebounding stock markets and an AI-driven tech boom. The members of the 2023 Forbes 400 list of richest Americans now hold $4.5 trillion in wealth, tying a record set in 2021. Elon Musk again tops the list, worth an estimated $251 billion — the exact same as last year, despite a wild 12 months. Musk is $90 billion wealthier than No. 2 Jeff Bezos and $93 billion ahead of No. 3 Larry Ellison, who added more dollars to his net worth than anyone in America over the past year, some $57 billion, largely thanks to the generative artificial intelligence craze helping push up shares of his software firm, Oracle. Despite the higher barrier to entry, 18 fresh faces joined The Forbes 400 for the first time this year, including Michael Jordan and Josh Kushner, Ivanka Trump’s brother-in-law.

Twenty-four people who made the 2022 ranking are now too poor to make the cut. Among the drop-offs are Donald Trump, whose social media platform and commercial real estate holdings are sputtering, and Sam Bankman-Fried and Gary Wang, who are navigating federal fraud charges after their crypto empire FTX went up in smoke last fall.

Meanwhile, Forbes found that the richest people in America are, so far, not all that generous. Two-thirds of them have given less than 5% of their wealth away so far; only 11 have donated 20% or more.

— Calendar of events today include:

Tuesday, Oct. 3

• Global agriculture productivity report. USDA, Virginia Tech’s Global Agriculture Productivity Initiative, and the Coalition on Sustainable Productivity, Growth for Food Security and Resource Conservation hold a discussion on the “Release of the 2023 Global Agriculture Productivity Report.”

• Commodity markets and impact on food security. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Fragmenting commodity markets: Geopolitics and the impact on food security and the clean energy transition.”

• Modernizing technology. Government Executive Media Group virtual Financial Management Forum focusing on how state and local governments are leveraging federal funds to modernize technology, transportation and housing.

• National security & foreign policy. PunchBowl News discussion on national security and foreign policy.

• International trade. Final day of the Washington International Trade Association (WITA) virtual 2023 Intensive Trade Seminar, including a session on U.S. and global trade policy with WTO Deputy Director General Angela Ellard.

• Economic relations with China. Brookings Institution and the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry discussion on “De-risking the economic relationship with China: Views from the Indo-Pacific.”

• Robocalls. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Communications, Media, and Broadband Subcommittee hearing on “Protecting Americans from Robocalls.”

• Pence remarks. Washington Post Live holds a virtual discussion with Republican Presidential Candidate and former Vice President Mike Pence on “his vision for the country, his strategy to break through the GOP field and his views on his former boss, Donald Trump.”

• Energy transition. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Transatlantic Collaboration on the Energy Transition.”

• Climate issues. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Good News in a Climate Crisis.”

• Turkish elections. The Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “Turkey’s Post-Election Dynamics: Political Direction, Economic Challenges, and Foreign Policy Strategy.”

• Blinken remarks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks at Rice University’s Baker Institute Public Policy’s Shell Distinguished Lecture Series.

• Economic reports. Motor Vehicle Sales | JOLTS

• Energy reports. Offshore WINDPOWER conference, Boston; runs through Wednesday | API US inventory report | Holiday: China, South Korea, Iraq.

• USDA reports: ERS: Commodity Costs and Returns | Milk Cost of Production Estimates

KEY LINKS

Policy Updates