The Week Ahead: Oct. 20, 2024
— Boeing and the leaders of its machinists union have reached a tentative agreement that could potentially end the ongoing strike that has severely impacted the company’s production, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). The new proposal from Boeing offers a significant 35% wage increase over a four-year period, a substantial improvement from the initial 25% offer that was overwhelmingly rejected by the union local representing machinists in the Pacific Northwest. The strike, which began on Sept. 13, has brought most of Boeing’s airplane production to a standstill and led to extensive layoffs. On Saturday morning, the union announced the deal, stating that “it warrants presenting to the members and is worthy of your consideration.” A vote on the tentative agreement is scheduled for Wednesday. Nearly 95% of workers voted against the previous tentative deal, despite the union leaders’ recommendation. The strike has had a significant financial impact on Boeing, with estimated losses of $1 billion per month. In response to the cash drain, CEO Kelly Ortberg announced plans to cut 17,000 jobs and raise up to $25 billion through stock or debt sales. The company has also warned of a potential $6 billion quarterly loss. — Biden says he knows how and when Israel will respond to Iran. President Biden told reporters before leaving Germany that he knows how Israel will respond to Iran and when, without elaborating on the timing or manner the expected retaliation will occur. However, the U.S. is investigating a leak of highly classified U.S. intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to reports. The documents, dated Oct. 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) expressed deep concerns Sunday about the leak and stressed that he’s following the situation “closely.” Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “nothing will deter us, we will keep going until victory,” after a drone struck his vacation home in northern Israel Saturday as the military continued its operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Netanyahu, 74, was not in the area when the drone was fired from Lebanon at his residence in Caesarea, his spokesperson said. The leader of the Jewish State has already spoken with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump about the apparent assassination attempt, according to The Times of Israel. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) also spoke with Netanyahu, saying the Israeli leader is “safe, in good spirits, and undeterred.” — The Financial Times reported that the U.S. will provide up to $20 billion to Ukraine as part of a G7 loan worth $50 billion. Details of the package, which was announced in June, have been subject to intense negotiations. — Tuesday marks two weeks until Election Day in the U.S. The presidential race is extremely tight, with all seven battleground states within the polls’ margin of error. Most signal the GOP will control the Senate next year, with others mixed regarding the fate of the House, with few races determining the outcome, which may come a few days after Nov. 5 elections. — CNN on Wednesday, Oct. 23, will hold a presidential town hall with Vice President Kamala Harris outside of Philadelphia. The event will air at 9 p.m. ET and be moderated by CNN’s Anderson Cooper. The network previously proposed a debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump in Atlanta on the same date. Harris accepted the invite, but Trump rejected it. Trump was also invited to participate in a CNN town hall. — Star-studded concert for Carolina to aid Hurricane Helene victims. On Saturday, Oct. 26, the Concert for Carolina, a charity event supporting Hurricane Helene victims, will take place in Charlotte. The lineup features James Taylor, Sheryl Crow, Keith Urban, Luke Combs, and more. While the concert is sold out, fans can livestream it for $24.99. Organizers assured that residents in affected areas won’t be charged, thanks to geotargeting technology. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
Congress is out and will return Nov. 12 for a lame-duck session that will try to complete work on must-have issues. The fate of the remaining weeks of Congress will depend on election results, which in the case of the House and perhaps the presidency, may take a while to officially determine. That will make it difficult and awkward for returning lawmakers. Key issues include:
• Fiscal year 2025 funding. The continuing resolution (CR) for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1 expires Dec. 20.
• Disaster aid. The level of assistance is murky at this time but with two hurricanes (Helene and Milton) and drought in other states, the price tag will be big. The package will include ag disaster aid for 2023 and 2024 ag disasters, with farm-state lawmakers making sure it will not be implemented like the last Emergency Relief Program (ERP) for 2022 crops. Some sources note the ag disaster aid could total $16 billion to $20 billion or even higher.
• Farm price mitigation/transition program. Recently introduced legislation (see next four items) is just one possible approach lawmakers prefer for transition aid until a new farm bill is passed.
• New farm bill. The naysayers continue to see low odds for a new farm bill, but a few think there is still a chance for a vote on an omnibus bill before Congress adjourns in mid-December. A signal that Congress could still act would be if retiring Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) releases official text of a Senate farm bill.
— Florida’s ag sector is facing severe challenges following a series of devastating hurricanes, with Hurricane Milton causing unprecedented damage. Commissioner Wilton Simpson of the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services has estimated that Milton alone may have caused between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion in damages, potentially doubling the destruction from three previous storms since August 2023.
The ag community in Florida has been hit repeatedly by four major hurricanes in just over a year, leading to what Simpson describes as “unprecedented financial strain.” In a letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, Simpson emphasized the urgency of the situation: “We need the USDA’s immediate support to help these family farms recover from yet another historic storm. The time to act is now.”
Hurricane Milton’s impact was widespread, affecting 51 counties as it made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County with 120 mph sustained winds. The preliminary report from the state agency revealed:
• Major structural impacts to nurseries and cattle ranches
• Disruptions to cow-milking operations due to power outages
• “Minor to catastrophic” damages to cotton, peanut, and rice crops
• “Significant damages” to vegetables, melons, blueberries, strawberries, and tropical fruits
The citrus industry, already struggling with historically low production, faces additional challenges from Hurricane Milton. The storm has caused fruit drop and raised concerns about flooded fields leading to tree mortality. Alico Inc., a major citrus grower, reported: “Our approximately 48,000 acres of citrus groves, which are located in Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands and Polk Counties, sustained hurricane or tropical storm force winds for varying durations of time.”
The impact of Hurricane Milton comes on top of damages from previous storms:
• Hurricane Idalia (August 2023): Affected 3.5 million acres, causing $276 million in production losses
• Hurricane Debby (August 2024): Estimated $93.7 million to $263.2 million in agricultural losses
• Hurricane Helene (September 2024): Damage assessment ongoing
The cumulative effect of these storms, combined with other economic pressures, has created a dire situation for Florida’s agricultural sector. As Simpson noted in his letter to Secretary Vilsack: “This major hurricane follows several years of above average rainfall, severe storms and winds, other tropical cyclones, hard freezes, and the significant economic disruption to all sectors of the economy caused by supply chain issues and mounting inflationary pressures, which may hinder access to necessary resources these farmers need.”
USDA is mobilizing resources to process disaster assistance applications quickly, with Secretary Vilsack noting: “We have literally eight or nine different programs designed to provide assistance for farmers, from crop insurance to the livestock indemnity program to emergency conservation assistance.”
Farmers in Florida are hoping to receive several types of assistance from USDA, including:
• Farm Service Agency’s disaster assistance programs
• Emergency farm loans for producers unable to secure commercial financing
• Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) for producers who experienced livestock deaths or had to sell injured livestock at reduced prices
• Technical assistance from the Natural Resources Conservation Service to help farmers and ranchers recover and make improvements to their land
• Crop insurance flexibility and support
• Emergency conservation assistance
• Disaster loans to help replace essential property, purchase inputs like livestock and equipment, cover family living expenses, or refinance farm-related debts
• Loan servicing options for borrowers unable to make scheduled payments on their farm loan debt
The full extent of Hurricane Milton’s impact is still being assessed, but it’s clear that Florida’s farmers and ranchers are facing unprecedented challenges and will require significant support to recover.
— The recent hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Helene, have had a devastating impact on Georgia’s farmers and the ag industry. The damage is extensive and far-reaching, affecting multiple crops and sectors.
The preliminary estimate of agricultural damages from Hurricane Helene alone is staggering, reaching approximately $6.46 billion. This figure includes crop losses, damage to businesses and workers supporting agriculture, and estimated recovery costs. The damage is about three times that of Hurricane Michael in 2018, which was previously considered one of the most destructive storms to hit the state.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) highlighted the gravity of the situation: “There is the risk of not just steep, but lasting damage to Georgia’s agriculture, our number one industry, if Congress fails to act swiftly.”
The damage to Georgia’s crops has been severe and widespread:
Cotton: One-third of the state’s cotton crop is considered a total loss.
Peanuts: Nearly 30% of the peanut crop has been destroyed.
Pecans: 50,000 pecan orchards have suffered serious damage. Some orchards have experienced up to 90% tree loss, with older trees most affected.
Poultry: Over 200 chicken houses were affected.
Timber: Approximately four million acres of timberland have been impacted.
The destruction of mature pecan trees is particularly concerning, as it could take up to a decade to replace them. This long-term impact will significantly affect Georgia’s pecan production, which accounts for 36% of U.S. pecan output.
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper emphasized the uncertainty facing farmers: “Right now, the future is uncertain for thousands of Georgia farmers and farm families who were devastated by Hurricane Helene.”
The impact of Hurricane Helene is exacerbated by previous storms and existing economic pressures. Georgia has been hit by three named storms in the past 13 months. Farmers were already struggling with inflation, high input costs, and depressed commodity prices before these hurricanes struck.
State Senator Russ Goodman highlighted the emotional toll on farmers: “I’m getting a lot of phone calls from farmers. Of course, you know, there’s a lot of heartbreak. Our farmers were already struggling.”
In response to the crisis, Georgia’s congressional delegation, both Republicans and Democrats, have united in calling for federal assistance. Additionally, the Georgia Department of Agriculture and over 40 farm organizations have created a relief fund for the state’s family farms. Governor Brian Kemp emphasized the importance of supporting farmers: “We depend on our farmers and timber growers to provide the food and fibers we use every day, and that drives our economy as part of Georgia’s No. 1 industry.”
The road to recovery for Georgia’s agriculture industry will be long and challenging, requiring significant support and resources to help farmers rebuild and recover from these devastating hurricanes.
Of note: We have provided details regarding Florida and Georgia, but other states have been hit hard by various weather events, include hurricanes, floods and droughts.
— Post-election Congress expected to consider several ag sector measures. Farmers and farm-state lawmakers are currently focusing on three major priorities:
1. Disaster relief for 2023 and 2024 losses, exacerbated by severe hurricanes in the Southeast (as highlighted in the previous two items on Florida and Georgia, with other states also being impacted)
2. Economic assistance for the 2024 crop year
3. Completion of a new farm bill to provide greater certainty for the future
The second priority is gaining momentum with the introduction of the “FARM Act” (link) by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss), a member of the House Ag Committee. (For analysis, see next item).
Details about the FARM Act. The Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act (FARM Act) provides emergency assistance to producers of eligible commodities for which the expected revenue in crop year 2024 is below the projected per-acre cost of production. Kelly says this assistance will be critical in helping farmers pay down debt relative to the 2024 crop and assist them in obtaining financing for the 2025 crop year.
Key features include:
• Eligibility: Crops such as barley, corn, cotton, dry peas, grain sorghum, lentils, chickpeas, oats, peanuts, rice, soybeans, other oilseeds, and wheat. (Some combination of purchases, block grants, or per acre payments for non-PLC/ARC eligible crops.)
• Payment formula: (Projected Cost/1 – Projected Returns/2) X Eligible Acres/3 X 60% = Total Payment/4
1. Projected cost is the per acre cost published by the Economic Research Service (ERS) for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats, and barley. The projected cost for other eligible commodities will be determined by the Secretary in a similar manner.
2. Projected returns for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats, and barley are determined by multiplying the projected 2024 marketing year average price published in the WASDE by the 10-year national average yield for the eligible commodity. The Secretary will be responsible for calculating a projected return for eligible commodities for which WASDE does not publish a projected price.
3. Eligible Acres consist of 100% of the acres planted to an eligible commodity, plus 50% of the acres prevented from being planted to an eligible commodity in crop year 2024, as reported to FSA by the producer.
4. Subject to payment limitations.
Administrative Provisions: With the exception of alternative limitations, existing provisions relative to attribution of payments, actively engaged in farming, and other regulations apply.
Payment limitations based on income derived from farming, ranching, or forestry
• Persons or entities that derive less than 75% of their income from farming, ranching, or forestry are subject to an overall limitation of $175,000 in assistance under this Act.
• Persons or entities that derive 75% or more of their income from farming, ranching, or forestry are subject to an overall limitation of $350,000 in assistance under this Act.
The FARM Act has garnered endorsements from various agricultural organizations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, American Soybean Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, National Barley Growers Association, National Cotton Council, National Sorghum Producers, National Sunflower Association, U.S. Canola Association, U.S. Peanut Federation, USA Dry Pea & Lentil Council, USA Rice, and Western Peanut Growers Association. Rep. Kelly is currently seeking co-sponsors for the measure, with a deadline of 9 a.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 25, for original co-sponsorship.
Disaster relief and farm bill progress. Lawmakers are also considering an ad hoc relief package for 2023 and 2024 production losses, aiming to improve upon the implementation of what many call a woefully inadequate Emergency Relief Program (ERP) for 2022.
As for a new farm bill, despite challenges, there is still opportunity to pass a five-year omnibus bill that strengthens the farm safety net, particularly under the commodity title and crop insurance.
— How Paul Neiffer of Farm CPA Report, sizes up the FARM Act proposals. He concludes it may make large payments for some 2024 crops. He has calculated some estimated amounts per acre that might result if the Act is passed. Link.
Payment limits: As previously noted, total payments would be limited to $175,000 per person / per entity. If more than 75% of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) is from farming, then the payment limit would double to $350,000. Neiffer says if you are an LLC, corporation or other legal entity, you will be limited to one payment. If you are general partnership or qualified joint venture, the payment will be limited to the number of owners based on ownership percentages.
Acres are based on 2024 planted acres with prevent plant acres qualifying at the 50% level. Other acres lost to natural causes such as hurricanes, etc. would also qualify at the 50% level.
Neiffer’s table of estimated payments below are based on the current 2024-2025 mid-year average price. For estimated production, Neiffer simply took the average of 2019-2021 yields and used that number. “The actual number might be a little lower but could be higher too but should not vary materially,” Neiffer says. He then inputted the current cost of production numbers from USDA and subtracted that from estimated revenues. The payment per acre is 60% of this number and that provided an estimate for 1,000 acres for each crop.
In all cases there will be a payment, however, barley has a very low payment while cotton has the highest payment with oats not far behind. Corn is the other crop that might see more than $100 per acre payment.
Neiffer cautions these estimates “are based on our reading the Act and final 10-year production numbers will be provided by USDA and price and cost numbers will not be applicable until the Act is passed.”
He also warns: “Not mentioned in the Act is whether these payments will reduce any possible ARC/PLC payments for this year.”
— U.S. deficit hits $1.8 trillion, highest outside Covid era. The U.S. recorded a $1.83 trillion budget deficit for the 2024 fiscal year, driven by soaring debt interest costs, increased Social Security and defense spending, and accounting adjustments related to student debt relief, U.S. Treasury data released Friday showed. This marks the largest deficit outside of the pandemic years, with the shortfall exceeding 6% of GDP for the second year in a row. Rising revenues from strong job growth and deferred taxes only partially offset the growing financial burden, complicating future fiscal policy ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
Interest paid out by the Treasury on the nation’s debt surged by $254 billion, to $1.1 trillion for the year, marking an increase of 29%. At about 3.93% of GDP, that burden was the highest since 1998. The weighted average interest rate for total outstanding debt by the end of September was 3.32%, at roughly 15-year highs, but down slightly from the month before — the first decline in nearly three years.
Revenues climbed by 11% over the fiscal year, strengthening mainly due to a boost in tax receipts. Strong job and wage gains were a factor, along with the receipt of taxes that had been deferred from 2023 due to natural disasters, Treasury officials said.
Of note: With Congress heading for a narrow partisan split, decisions loom in 2025 on what to do with the expiration of tax cuts enacted during the Trump administration in 2017, and the reinstatement of the debt ceiling. Economists find that each one percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio increases longer-run real interest rates by one to six basis points. According to the CBO, private investment falls by 33 cents for every one dollar increase in the budget deficit.
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| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
Monday, Oct. 21
• Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group hold their 2024 Fall Meeting, featuring a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
• Dietary Guidelines. Health and Human Services Department virtual Scientific Report Meeting of the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee to review and discuss the scientific findings and advice included in its scientific report; runs through Tuesday.
• Trade and finance. Peterson Institute for International Economics conference on “Geopolitics and International Trade and Finance: Knowns and Unknowns.”
• U.S./Korea relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Future of U.S./Republic of Korea (ROK) Alliance.”
• The new Cold War. Hudson Institute discussion on “Relearning Escalation Dynamics to Win the New Cold War.”
• November elections. Economic Club of Washington, D.C. 2024 election panel discussion.
• U.S. transatlantic relations. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Trump, Harris and the Transatlantic Future.”
• The elections and tax policy. Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center virtual forum on “Tax Policy, the 2024 Election, and a Look Ahead to 2025.”
• Election preparations. National Association of Secretaries of State virtual Elections 101 briefing on election preparations and the decentralized nature of elections.
• Russian war in Ukraine. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “Putin’s Red Lines: Does He Mean What We Think We Heard?”
• Elections and foreign policy. Council on Foreign Relations Election 2024 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum.
Tuesday, Oct. 22
• Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting, including a briefing on the “World Economic Outlook.”
• Organic Standards Board. Agricultural Marketing Service meeting of the National Organic Standards Board to discuss substances petitioned for addition to, or removal from, the National List of Allowed and Prohibited Substances (National List), substances on the National List that are under sunset review, and guidance on organic policies; runs through Thursday.
• Migrant, agriculture workers health. Health Resources and Services Administration virtual meeting of the National Advisory Council on Migrant Health to discuss migratory and seasonal agricultural worker health, including impacts of heat and wildfire smoke, farmworker data, and best practices for fostering partnerships between farmworkers, health centers, growers, and community organizations.
• Paris climate accord. Brookings Institution book discussion on “Landing the Paris Climate Agreement: How it Happened, Why it Matters, and What Comes Next.”
• Key minerals. Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program virtual discussion on “The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives.”
• U.S. energy. Vandenberg Coalition discussion on “Unleashing American Energy to Power Our Prosperity.”
Wednesday, Oct. 23
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to deliver opening remarks at Philadelphia Fed conference. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting, including a briefing on “Fiscal Monitor” and Governors talk on “Ukraine.”
• Urban agriculture panel. Natural Resources Conservation Service virtual meeting of the Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production Advisory Committee (UAIPAC) for administrative matters, presentations from the UAIPAC or Agriculture Department staff and deliberations for proposed recommendations and plans.
• Eurozone monetary policy. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Monetary Policy Transmission Across the Euro Area.”
• Top election issues. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “Examining the Vote: Unpacking Top Issues in the U.S. Elections”
• European economic outlook. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Europe’s Economic Outlook.”
• Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
• COP29. Environmental and Energy Study Institute virtual briefing on “What’s on the Table for the Negotiations What Congress Needs to Know about COP29,” focusing on the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan.
• EU agenda. Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies discussion on “Geoeconomic Considerations: Future of the EU Agenda.”
• China agenda. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “Understanding China’s Strategic Path to Great Power Status.”
• War in Ukraine. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe briefing on “Contesting Russia: Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe.”
Thursday, Oct. 24
• Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing.
• Drought panel. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meeting of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Executive Council.
• Energy Tech conference. United States Energy Association Energy-Tech Connect Forum.
• Trade policy. The Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “Trade and the Administrative State,” focusing on the contention between the executive and legislative branches of government in regulating commerce.
• Methane and COP29. Environmental and Energy Study Institute virtual briefing on “Methane Mitigation on the Global Stage: What Congress Needs to Know about COP29.”
Friday, Oct. 25
• World Bank/IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting with a focus on the Western Hemisphere a briefing by the International Monetary and Financial Committee.
• U.S., China and COP29. Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds a virtual briefing on “U.S./China Engagement and International Climate Diplomacy: What Congress Needs to Know about COP29.”
• 2017 tax cuts. American Bar Association virtual discussion on “The 2025 Sunsetting of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Tax Justice on the Frontlines.”
• India economic situation. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “India’s Economic Aspirations.”
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
The economic-data highlights of the week include the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales report for September on Wednesday, S&P Global’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for October on Thursday, and the Census Bureau’s durable goods report for September on Friday. Meanwhile, Friday brings another USDA food price update report.
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings will be held in Washington.
Monday, Oct. 21
• Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak.
• Leading Indicators
Tuesday, Oct. 22
• Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting, including a briefing on the “World Economic Outlook.”
• ECB President Christine Lagarde is interviewed by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua in Washington.
• BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia (through Oct. 24). Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the 16th BRICS summit. The name for the group of leading emerging economies comes from its original member nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — and its mission is to act as a counterweight to the West and Western institutions like the G7. Additional BRICS members have been added over time, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing
Wednesday, Oct. 23
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to deliver opening remarks at Philadelphia Fed conference. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting, including a briefing on “Fiscal Monitor” and Governors talk on “Ukraine.”
• Bank of Canada meets on interest rates.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde discusses Europe’s economy at Atlantic Council.
• Existing Home Sales
• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
• Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Oct. 24
• Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack scheduled to speak.
• World Bank/IMF. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing.
• Jobless Claims
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index
• PMI Composite Flash
• New Home Sales
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply
Friday, Oct. 25
• World Bank/IMF. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting with a focus on the Western Hemisphere a briefing by the International Monetary and Financial Committee.
• Russia’s central bank meets. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina holds news conference after key rate announcement.
• Durable Goods Orders
• Consumer Sentiment
• KC Fed Manufacturing
| KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
USDA has recently announced several daily export sales as it appears the price level, especially for corn, has reached “fair value” for now. That puts more focus on any additional daily sales and the Weekly Export Sales report usually released on Thursdays.
In the energy sector, companies including Eni, Equinor, Saipem and Valero will kick off the third-quarter earnings season for major energy firms.
Monday, Oct. 21
Ag reports and events:
• Export Inspections
• Food Expenditure Series
• U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
• Milk Production
• Chickens & Eggs
• Crop Progress
• Malaysia Oct. 1-20 palm oil exports
Energy reports and events:
• Financial Review Energy and Climate Summit in Sydney (runs through Tuesday)
• Vanir’s Japan Power Week in Tokyo; runs through Thursday
• Singapore International Energy Week; runs through Friday
• IAEA Small Modular Reactors conference
• China to publish September output data for base metals and oil products
• WTI CSOs expire (November)
Tuesday, Oct. 22
Ag reports and events:
• Vegetables and Pulses Data
• Fruit & Tree Nut Data
• Cotton Ginnings
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Energy reports and events:
• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• FT Energy Transition Summit, London; Runs through Thursday
• Wood Mackenzie Gas, LNG & the Future of Energy 2024 conference, London
• WTI November futures expire
• Earnings: Baker Hughes
Wednesday, Oct. 23
Ag reports and events:
• Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
• Oil Crops Outlook
• Feed Outlook
• Wheat Outlook
• Rice Outlook
• Rice Stocks
• Broiler Hatchery
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report
• Earnings: Saipem; NextEra Energy
• Holiday: Libya, Thailand
Thursday, Oct. 24
Ag reports and events:
• Export Sales
• Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade
• Livestock Slaughter
• Poultry Slaughter
Energy reports and events:
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• Earnings: Equinor, Valero
• Holiday: Israel
Friday, Oct. 25
Ag reports and events:
• Malaysia’s Oct. 1-25 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• Food Price Outlook
• Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
• Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
• Cattle on Feed
• Cold Storage
• Peanut Stocks and Processing
• Peanut Prices
Energy reports and events:
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Earnings: Eni
• Holiday: Kazakhstan
| KEY LINKS |
WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | | SCOTUS on WOTUS | SCOTUS on Prop 12 pork | New farm bill primer | | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA Ag Outlook Forum |