Lawmakers Return to Work on Reconciliation, Tax Cut Decisions

Focus on Trump’s trade policy: Calibrated trade enforcement measure, not blanket global tariff war

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March 23, 2025 10:20 AM

WEEK AHEAD_PF_FINAL.jpg — The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead: March 23, 2025

— Sen. Daines meets China’s He amid rising U.S./China trade tensions. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of “constructive dialogue” as trade tensions escalate between the U.S. and China. This marks the first meeting between He and a sitting American politician since President Donald Trump returned to office. Daines, a long-time China interlocutor, was set to meet Premier Li Qiang on Sunday, where he is expected to be briefed on developments in China and its government’s “broad policies.” His visit comes ahead of an April 1 review of China’s compliance with the Phase One trade deal and the planned imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs. Daines, a former Procter & Gamble executive in China, raised issues including fentanyl trafficking and American job protection, aligning with Trump’s “America First” agenda.

An item below includes a major update on President Trump’s reciprocal trade policy measure coming April 2.

— China braces for trade war escalation, urges market openness at Beijing forum. Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned that the country is prepared for “shocks that exceed expectations,” as anticipation builds over renewed U.S. tariffs under President Trump. Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing, Li emphasized the need for global cooperation and open markets amid rising economic uncertainty. Addressing international business leaders and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Li called for greater collaboration, stating that China and the U.S. “stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.” The event featured top executives from firms like Apple, Qualcomm, Pfizer, and Saudi Aramco, with reports suggesting a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping on March 28, while other reports have signaled a June confab.

As trade tensions loom, Li reaffirmed China’s commitment to policy support, including rate cuts and economic stimulus, while urging foreign investment. China’s economy faces mounting pressure from weakened consumer credit, declining U.S. imports, and potential global tariff hikes. Amid these headwinds, Beijing is leaning on tech momentum and consumption initiatives to maintain its 5% growth target for 2025.

— Mexico President Sheinbaum’s measured response to Trump’s tariff threats. In a recent commentary, Mexico News Daily CEO Travis Bembenek evaluates how Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum has responded to tariff threats from President Donald Trump — and gives her high marks for composure and strategic diplomacy.

Bembenek acknowledges that some of Trump’s concerns regarding Mexico — from cartel activity to migration and Chinese transshipments — are valid and deserve attention. He notes that while the U.S. often plays the role of a trade aggressor, particularly under Trump, it also raises fair questions about global trade imbalances. Against this backdrop, he ways, Sheinbaum has taken a calm but firm approach:

· Migration: She launched Mexico Te Abraza, a reintegration program for deportees, and deployed 10,000 troops to the border to manage migrant flows.
· Cartel crackdown: She has increased arrests, drug confiscations, and sent 29 high-profile cartel members to the U.S. for extradition.
· China policy: Her administration is cooperating with the U.S. on screening Chinese investments and cracking down on illegal goods and actors.

Crucially, Sheinbaum has not retaliated with counter-tariffs. Instead, her government has engaged in a quiet diplomatic campaign, emphasizing education over escalation. High-ranking officials have visited Washington to articulate Mexico’s efforts, while she has kept the domestic tone steady and constructive.

The payoff? Trump has refrained from attacking Sheinbaum personally — a rarity — and has shifted tariff focus toward other countries. Mexican public opinion has surged in her favor, and the peso has strengthened.

Bembenek concludes that Sheinbaum’s blend of resolve and restraint reflects “a voice of calm and reason” in a volatile moment — and hopes the U.S. responds with a more collaborative tone.

Bembenek’s bottom line: The U.S. does buy much more from Mexico than Mexico does from the United States — a true statistic that Trump frequently highlights. Bembenek notes: “But of course it does! The U.S. has nearly three times the population, an economy that is 15 times larger and much wealthier citizens. In addition, the United States has an exceptionally high percentage of the economy that is ‘consumer based’ (in other words, Americans like to buy lots of stuff!). Mexico has been hit with a variety of justifications for tariffs from the United States. Some are justified and logical — like a lack of action on cartels, drug production, Chinese transshipment and migrants. Others are illogical and make little sense — like pointing to the trade imbalance.”

— Canadian PM Carney launches tariff relief and sweeping economic reforms ahead of expected election call. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a wide-ranging set of measures to shield the economy from U.S. tariffs and jumpstart national development, just days before an anticipated election announcement. In response to import taxes proposed by President Donald Trump, Carney announced that businesses can defer corporate income and consumption tax payments between April 2 and June 30. Canada will also establish a new government financing facility and streamline access to support programs for affected workers.

Industry Minister Anita Anand pledged C$450 million over five years to support small and medium-sized enterprises through regional development agencies.

Carney revealed retaliatory tariffs on select U.S. goods and launched reforms aimed at harmonizing inter-provincial trade, claiming the removal of internal trade barriers could add C$250 billion to the Canadian economy.

Key measures include:
· A national trade and energy corridor strategy
· Elimination of federal exemptions under the Canadian Free Trade Agreement
· New legislation by July 1 to ease inter-provincial trade
· Labor mobility reform and a “one-window” approval process for major projects

Additionally, the government will create a “first-mile fund” to improve infrastructure links and double the Indigenous loan guarantee program to C$10 billion. Projects of national significance, such as the Churchill port and LNG facilities on the west coast, will be fast-tracked.

Carney is expected to call a snap election for April 28. As part of his first overseas trip as leader, Carney visited Paris, London, and Iqaluit, outlining a strategic, patient approach to President Trump’s threats. His emerging doctrine emphasizes demanding respect from the U.S., resisting rushed negotiations, and diversifying Canada’s global alliances. He insists Canada won’t drop retaliatory tariffs unless the U.S. changes its tone and conduct. Carney is also deepening ties with allies beyond the U.S., finalizing an Arctic radar deal with Australia and positioning Canada to benefit from the EU’s new military industrial initiative.

— IRS braces for massive revenue hit as staff cuts take toll. The Washington Post reports (link) that senior IRS and Treasury officials are warning of a dramatic decline in federal tax revenue — more than 10%, or over $500 billion — ahead of the April 15 tax deadline. The projected shortfall is linked to sweeping staff cuts and operational disruptions under the Trump administration, as well as changing taxpayer behavior in response to weakened enforcement. Three sources familiar with internal IRS projections told the Washington Post the agency is seeing increased noncompliance among filers — from skipping payments to fraudulently inflating deductions — as confidence in the IRS’s capacity to audit or collect wanes. “The idea of doing that in one year, it’s hard to grapple with how meaningful of a shift that represents,” said Natasha Sarin, president of the Yale Budget Lab and a former senior Biden tax official.

The administration has already dismissed over 11,000 IRS employees, targeting enforcement and taxpayer services. Investigations into wealthy taxpayers and large corporations have been shelved, and two agency commissioners have resigned, including the IRS’s head of compliance, Heather Maloy. “We tried to make clear this is a logistics operation,” one official involved in transition briefings told the WaPo. “If you put 30 people on the line, this is how much you can accomplish today. If you put 15 people on the line, you can accomplish half of that.”

Despite an economy that grew by 2.8% in 2024 and no major tax law changes, IRS data shows a 1.7% decline in returns filed and growing signs of taxpayer resistance. Internal assessments suggest the shortfall stems not from natural disasters or extensions, but a systemic breakdown in compliance and enforcement.

The ramifications could be severe: The IRS collects 95% of federal revenue. Without that income, the government may have to borrow more, swelling the already $36.2 trillion national debt.

An internal 68-slide IRS presentation reviewed by the WaPo had cautioned Trump’s transition team about these risks, urging a gradual reduction in staff alongside digitization. Instead, deep cuts were pursued immediately. “Aggressive reductions to budget and personnel capacity risk backlogs, delays, reduced receipts, and diminished capacity,” the presentation warned.

— President Trump continued his feud with Maine Governor Janet Mills on Saturday morning, firing off a social media post demanding that she owes him a “full throated apology” amid their scrap over trans athletes. “While the State of Maine has apologized for their Governor’s strong, but totally incorrect, statement about men playing in women’s sports while at the White House Governor’s Conference, we have not heard from the Governor herself, and she is the one that matters in such cases,” Trump wrote shortly before 8 a.m. on his social media platform, Truth Social. “Therefore, we need a full-throated apology from the Governor herself, and a statement that she will never make such an unlawful challenge to the Federal Government again, before this case can be settled.”

Background. The controversy in Maine followed the participation of a transgender high school athlete in a girls’ indoor track and field championship at Greely High School in Cumberland that took place Feb. 17, in which the student won first place. A conservative state legislator, Rep. Laurel Libby, railed against the participation of the teen, who was born biologically male. When Mills replied to Trump that she was complying with state and federal law, Trump announced that “we are the federal law” — and warned that “you’re not going to get any federal funding at all if you don’t.” Mills said: “See you in court.”

Of note: The federal government said in a press release that the state’s university system had said trans women are not allowed to compete in women’s sports. A statement from USDA, which provides funding to the college system, touted this as a Trump victory. After Trump’s post on Saturday, Libby, the state representative who’d taken issue with the trans teen competing, wrote on the social media platform X, “Thankful for President Trump’s strong stance on behalf of Maine girls. Biological males are still participating in girls’ sports, and it’s time for that to end!”

WASHINGTON FOCUS

Volatility and uncertainty sum up a lot of things today: Congress, the White House, trade policy and markets. The following dispatch discusses some issues leading to shouts and bouts of feelings amid indecision on key issues or frustration over recent events or the freezing of all dispersals in some previously approved grants and loans by the Biden administration. With both congressional chambers returning to work, expect comments from some returning lawmakers about what they heard from voters back in their states and districts (some examples below). Republican leaders will continue meeting on key features of a coming budget reconciliation measure, which will include extension of 2017 tax cuts and a few new ones. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and his top officials dealing with trade issues will continue work on the unveiling April 2 of reciprocal tariffs — an extended discussion on that is in today’s dispatch.

— Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) drew record crowds for the “Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go from Here” tour, which hit five cities in three days. Today’s event in Tucson, Arizona broke the record for biggest political rally held in the Grand Canyon State. All told, more than 86,847 people came out for the weekend’s town halls, including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado — the biggest crowd Sanders has ever attracted. Livestreams of the events have been watched more than 1.5 million times. In total, the Fighting Oligarchy tour has drawn 107,981 people. The tour focused on the takeover of the national government by billionaires and large corporations, the country’s move toward authoritarianism, and outlined how Americans can fight back against President Trump and Elon Musk, who they allege are quickly moving the country toward authoritarianism, oligarchy, and kleptocracy.

— Sen. Chuck Grassley town hall in Iowa gets heated over Trump, DOGE. The Des Moines Register reports (link) that at a tense town hall in Hampton, Iowa, on Friday, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) faced a room packed with more than 100 concerned constituents demanding answers about government oversight, the Trump administration, and the controversial new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), helmed by Elon Musk.

“My question, which I think is on our minds here, is where is Congress?” asked one attendee, sparking cheers across the courtroom, according to the article.

The crowd’s frustration boiled over as speaker after speaker pressed Grassley on his role in reining in the federal downsizing under the Trump administration and DOGE’s growing power. “Where’s the approval for it, where’s the oversight for it, where’s the security clearance?” asked Margaret Smith of Hampton. “There’s no precedent for that.”

Audience members repeatedly questioned Grassley’s commitment to checks and balances. One speaker emphasized, “The courts are doing their job... but we need to also have the Senate and the House providing oversight. We are depending on you and the others to save democracy.”

Grassley, the longtime senator and chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, maintained that he’s engaged in oversight: “I have 33 investigations going on,” he said, adding that many focus on government waste.

When pressed on whether former President Trump is “above the law,” Grassley responded, “He’s not above the law,” though his answer was quickly drowned out by shouting from the audience.

Outside the courthouse, Mark McCormick, an independent voter from Des Moines who couldn’t get in, voiced deep dissatisfaction: “The party has gone off the rails, and now they’re basically OK with fascism, which is crazy.”

Despite the intensity, Grassley stood by his town hall approach: “It goes like all of my town meetings. I let them set the agenda… People are very concerned about a lot of issues going on in Washington, D.C.”

He also acknowledged the growing anxiety around the expansive reach of DOGE and the federal layoffs it has triggered. “Congress has given too much flexibility to both Republican and Democrat presidents,” he admitted. “Maybe this year, we’re learning a lesson not to be so delegating of authority.”

— NBC News: Trump policies threaten Michigan farmer’s livelihood. Rebecca Carlson, a lifelong Republican and owner of Overlook Orchards in northern Michigan, believed Donald Trump’s return to the presidency would bring relief to her struggling 1,300-acre cherry farm. Instead, she’s now facing the possibility of bankruptcy, according to an NBC News account (link). Carlson had been awarded a $400,000 USDA grant to hire seasonal workers from Guatemala through the H-2A visa program — essential help after weather losses and rising costs. But that funding is now frozen due to broader government spending cuts and executive orders by the Trump administration. She’s already spent $200,000 preparing housing and covering visa expenses and has no clear guidance from the USDA about reimbursement.

“I bleed Republican,” Carlson said, “but this has left a sour taste in my mouth.”

Trump’s early policies in his second term — including funding freezes, proposed tariffs, and immigration crackdowns — have introduced major risks for farmers like Carlson. With no funding certainty and a fast-approaching deadline to book airfare for her workers, Carlson says without immediate relief, she may not survive the season. “The American farmer is failing right now,” she warned. “You’re freezing funding meant to help the American farmer.”

Comments: I have been giving a lot of speeches throughout the country the past few months. Wherever I go farmers ask me: “Why is the Trump administration holding us hostage over commitments USDA or the Energy Dept. made regarding contracts for various programs?” Like the farmer quoted in the NBC story, there are many other producers who are facing similar situations, many of whom voted for President Trump. As for when these issues impacting billions of dollars will be settled one way or another, the NEC and OMB must file reports on the various grants and loans that have been frozen (all dispersals, despite prior commitments of funding) on April 20 (90 days from the executive order terminating the Green New Deal). Until recently, farmers, farm groups and GOP farm-state lawmakers have not said very much publicly regarding the ag sector’s angst in this area. That could change soon. A plethora of court challenges by impacted farmers is a distinct likelihood if something doesn’t change soon. And many of them could likely win their cases. If so, those are headlines the White House, Trump and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins would not like to see. But why would the Trump administration want farmers of all people to have to resort to lawsuits?

— Trump’s tariff “liberation day” plans. President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a new wave of tariffs on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” which will be more targeted than initially anticipated. This approach aims to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that have tariffs and/or nontariff trade barriers against the U.S., excluding nations with no U.S. tariffs and a trade surplus with the U.S. Reciprocity is a simple topic to explain, as Trump has said many times: “If other countries impose high tariffs on our exports, we should match those with high tariffs on their exports. That’s basic fairness.”

U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is reviewing the tariff plan and taking comments from businesses, including the ag sector and some commodity and farm groups.

Trump has emphasized the need for these tariffs, stating, “April 2nd is going to be liberation day for America. We’ve been ripped off by every country in the world, friend and foe.” He believes these measures will bring in significant revenue. U.S. customs revenues from China surged after the tariffs were imposed in 2018, according to a survey last year by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, but then peaked in 2022 and dropped sharply in 2023 as companies adjusted.

“Tariffs will make America more competitive. They will incentivize investment into America,” Stephen Miran, Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers chairman, said in an interview, declining to detail the steps. As for the structure — country-by-country, product-by-product, or both — that decision hasn’t been made yet, Miran said. These conversations and policy decisions are evolving ahead of the April 2 announcement.

The White House has also argued that trillions of dollars in pledged announcements by foreign countries and companies provides evidence Trump’s plans are working. Miran told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business that talks are ongoing ahead of the April 2 deadline. “I do think that it’s perfectly reasonable to expect that we could raise trillions of dollars from tariffs over a 10-year budget window and using those revenues to finance lower rates on American workers, on American businesses,” he said. Miran noted that during President Trump’s first term, tariffs on China brought in over $400 billion. “That revenue helped finance lower tax rates for American workers and businesses — taking revenue from abroad and using it to cut domestic taxes. That’s great policy,” Miran said.

The plan is a retreat from Trump’s earlier proposal of a three-tiered system of tariff severity in favor of a “reciprocal” model. Instead, it focuses on specific countries and perhaps sectors or both.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to the “dirty 15" countries, which account for a significant portion of U.S. trade volume and are likely targets for these tariffs. He highlighted that these countries have substantial tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

The average tariffs of some countries versus the United States:

India: 14.3%
Brazil: 12.4%
South Korea: 11.1%
China: 6.5%
Mexico: 6.0%
U.S.: 2.7%

While the auto sector may not face new tariffs on April 2, Trump has not ruled out implementing them later. Though Trump had hinted at additional tariffs on autos, semiconductor chips, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, these are not expected to be part of the April 2 announcement.

The administration is also considering tariff rollbacks for certain countries. Some existing tariffs — especially those imposed on Canada and Mexico over fentanyl shipments — might be rescinded or replaced.

How will the Trump trade team evaluate non-tariff barriers, like those in the EU? Miran admitted that is a key policy challenge. “Sometimes countries have low tariffs but still block our companies from entering their markets through other means. That’s unfair. The president has been clear that this won’t be tolerated anymore. Estimating the impact of non-tariff barriers is complex, and there are multiple ways to approach it. I can’t get ahead of the current discussions, but non-tariff barriers are major obstacles to fair trade.”

Potential retaliation. Some countries are likely to respond with countermeasures, increasing the risk of trade friction or escalation.

Market impact: Officials are working to avoid spooking financial markets, which have
previously reacted negatively to Trump-era tariffs. Kevin Hassett, Trump’s National Economic Council (NEC) director, noted on a Fox Business show that markets overestimate the scope, saying, “It’s not everybody that cheats us on trade, it’s just a few countries and those countries are going to be seeing some tariffs.” Trump’s approach is now less universal but more aggressive than in his first term, seeking to channel foreign investment and create domestic leverage. That goal appears to be being met already, with several companies and countries recently noting large business investments in the United States.

“If a tariff causes prices to go up, that doesn’t necessarily change the inflation rate,” Hassett said, “especially when you consider everything else we’re doing. We’ve got a massive supply-side tax cut that could raise the equilibrium capital stock by about 10%. That’s hugely deflationary. We’ve got significant government spending cuts — also deflationary. Deregulation is lowering the cost of everything, and we’ve got tariffs, which, if we’re onshoring production, may not impact inflation at all.”

Hassett then pointed to a recent positive report on U.S. industrial production. “We had one of the best industrial production reports you’ll ever see,” Hassett said. “Last year, under President Biden, U.S. auto production dropped 7.8%. Last month, it jumped 8.5%. So, we’ve more than offset a year of Biden’s damaging auto policies. Autos account for 30–40% of the trade deficit, depending on the year. Onshoring those jobs and producing American cars — that’s the whole point of President Trump’s policies. And that doesn’t necessarily cause inflation. In fact, American cars might be better value right now.”

Hassett’s bottom line: “The unemployment rate is in a good place. Auto employment is soaring. People are buying American. That’s what this is all about.”

Miran explained two things regarding trade and tariffs: “First, imports make up only 14% of GDP — 86% of what Americans buy is made in the U.S. So, it’s not plausible that tariffs on that small slice could cause major inflation, recession, or market crashes. We’re a large economy — not a small, open one — which gives us the leverage to set strong policies. Second, look at the first term. In 2018–2019, we imposed tariffs on China and still had one of the strongest economies in decades. Growth was strong, inflation was low, and markets did well. There was no sign of major economic harm from tariffs.

Miran’s bottom line: “Economists know that in any policy change, the less flexible party bears the cost. Other countries depend on access to the American consumer — the biggest source of demand in the world. They don’t have a substitute. As the president says, we have the leverage.”

Upshot: Hassett and Miran stress that this is a calibrated trade enforcement measure, not a blanket global tariff war.

— The Trump administration is expected to respond to a potential trade war similarly to how it did during Trump’s first term — if needed. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and USDA officials have indicated that preparations are already underway. Previously, the administration used the Commodity Credit Corporation to deliver $28 billion in aid to farmers, mainly through the “Market Facilitation Program,” which sent direct payments to farm businesses. An additional $1.5 billion went to buying surplus goods — made excessive by retaliatory tariffs — and redistributing them to food banks. However, this time the stakes are higher: the trade war could impact a lot more foreign trade, not just specific sectors.

Of note: Rollins said on Friday that the department was looking into a program to help “mitigate any economic catastrophes that could happen to some of our farmers.” Asked whether that would include direct payments, Rollins said, “We’re working that out right now.”

— Update on tax cuts and budget reconciliation. National Economic Council (NEC) Director Keving Hassett described the coming tax cut measure as “the most growth-oriented tax bill in American history. In comments on Fox Business, Hassett noted, “Last time, corporate tax cuts drove up wages by boosting labor demand — factories came back. This time, the president wants to go further, with supply-side tax cuts for workers. Think about it: if overtime isn’t taxed, people will work more. That increases the labor supply — a supply-side policy. Same thing with tips. If tips aren’t taxed, people work harder and earn more. That’s growth. With all this supply bursting into the economy, the idea that inflation will rise just doesn’t fit any economic model I’ve ever seen.”

Regarding budget reconciliation and tax cut talks by the “Big Six,” Hassett said they are “going great. We’re working very closely. Our staffs are talking for hours every day, and we have Big Six meetings every 10 days or so. Another one is scheduled soon. It’s the same process that worked for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The president said to follow that playbook — and he’s right.” The Big Six members include White House officials, GOP congressional leaders, and leaders from the House Ways & Means and Senate Finance panels.

Getting White House and congressional leadership together to hash out the details is expected to lead to a final proposal, albeit with twists and turns. “We’re making real progress. There’s already clarity on what we agree on. I’m looking forward to the next meeting — and I’ll report back with more good news,” Hassett said. President Trump and House leaders want “one big, beautiful bill,” which Hassett said is “totally doable. Trump understands the legislative process and trusts that the Senate and House will get there. He’s not micromanaging day to day — he knows they have to line up votes.”

— USDA is expected to release details of $20.8 billion in additional ag disaster payments in the coming weeks. This batch of cash, also included in the December Continuing Resolution, is intended for losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024.

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Democrats to hold Tuesday hearing on GOP plan to cut SNAP benefits. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y., alongside top Democratic leadership and members of the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, will convene a hearing on Tuesday, March 25 at 3:00 PM in HVC-215 of the Capitol Visitor Center. The session will spotlight the Republican proposal to cut funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and include testimony from everyday Americans impacted by the potential cuts.

Monday, March 24
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on Small Business Lending in Washington, DC.
· USTR hearing on proposed fees on China shipping. U.S. Trade Representative public hearing on potential trade action in connection with the Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting of the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance.
· U.S. business agenda. United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit, with the theme “The 2025 Business Policy Agenda: Charting the Course.” Runs through Wednesday.
· Global energy outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook: Navigating the Future of Global Energy.”
· DOGE cuts and weather. Center for American Progress virtual discussion on “Forecasting Disaster: How DOGE’s Cuts to NOAA Will Affect Weather Awareness and Well-Being.”

Tuesday, March 25
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler to speak on Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship in Washington, DC | New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
· CFTC review. House Ag Committee hearing on “The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) at 50: Examining the Past and Future of Commodity Markets.”
· Clean fuels tax credit future. R Street Institute virtual discussion on “What’s the Future of the Clean Fuels Tax Credit?”
· Trade negotiation priorities. House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee hearing on “American Trade Negotiation Priorities.”
· Nomination hearing: Social Security. Senate Finance Committee hearing on the nomination of Frank Bisignano to be commissioner of Social Security Administration.
· Tax policy. Punchbowl News discussion on the “news of the day and tax policy.”
· Access to capital. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Beyond Silicon Valley: Expanding Access to Capital Across America.”
· Reforming FEMA. House Transportation and Infrastructure Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Subcommittee hearing on “Reforming FEMA: Bringing Common Sense Back to Federal Emergency Management.”
· China exploitation of African minerals. House Foreign Affairs Africa Subcommittee hearing on “Metals, Minerals, and Mining: How the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) Fuels Conflict and Exploitation in Africa.”
· State Department administrative services. House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee hearing on “Streamlined and Rightsized: Consolidating State Department Administrative Services.”
· Biden border policies. House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing on “Part 1: Consequences of Failure: How Biden’s Policies Fueled the Border Crisis.”
· Global threats. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats.”
· Wages. House Education and Workforce Protections Subcommittee hearing on “The Future of Wage Laws: Assessing the FLSA’s (Fair Labor Standards Act) Effectiveness, Challenges, and Opportunities.”
· Food security. International Food Policy Research Institute webinar, “How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping.”
· Grid reliability. House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing on “Keeping the Lights On: Examining the State of Regional Grid Reliability.”
· Conventional shipbuilding. House Armed Services Seapower Subcommittee hearing on “The State of Conventional Surface Shipbuilding.”

Wednesday, March 26
· Vice President JD Vance delivers remarks following a tour of Marine Corps Base Quantico.
· Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem scheduled to speak.
· Nomination hearing: EPA, Fish and Wildlife. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the nominations of Brian Nesvik to be director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Jessica Kramer to be assistant administrator for water at the Environmental Protection Agency; and Sean Donahue to be an assistant administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.
· Global threats assessment. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “The Annual Worldwide Threats Assessment.”
· NTSB oversight. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “National Transportation Safety Board Oversight.”
· Indo-Pacific alliances. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Shared Threats: Indo-Pacific Alliances and Burden Sharing in Today’s Geopolitical Environment.”
· Reforming CFPB. House Financial Services Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “A New Era for the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau): Balancing Power and Reprioritizing Consumer Protections.”
· Importance of trucking. House Transportation and Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on “America Builds: How Trucking Supports American Communities.”
· NPR/PBS. House Oversight and Government Reform Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee hearing on “Anti-American Airwaves: Holding the Heads of NPR (National Public Radio) and PBS (Public Broadcasting Service) Accountable.”
· FEMA oversight. House Oversight and Government Reform Government Operations Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Emergency Management Agency: Operational Challenges and Opportunities for Reform.”
· Carbon capture report. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on “An Overview of the 2024 Global Status of CCS (carbon capture and storage) Report.”

Thursday, March 27
· Nominations hearing: SEC, other. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the nominations of Paul Atkins to be a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Jonathan Gould to be comptroller of the currency at the Treasury Department; and Luke Pettit to be assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions.
· SEC, AI and the financial industry. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) discussion on “Artificial Intelligence in the Financial Industry.”
· International narcotics. House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere Subcommittee hearing on “INL (International Narcotics and Law) Should Fight Crime, Not Fight Conservatives.”

Friday, March 28
· Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr to speak on Banking Policy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

Federal Reserve officials are out in force this week, so some of their comments could be market sensitive. Thursday brings a revised estimate of U.S. Q4 GDP growth, offering a clearer picture of the economy’s momentum at the end of 2024. On Friday, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February will be released. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Monday, March 24

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on Small Business Lending in Washington, DC.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
PMI Composite Flash

Tuesday, March 25

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler to speak on Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship in Washington, DC | New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | FHFA House Price Index | Consumer Confidence | New Home Sales | Richmond Fed Manufacturing
Earnings: Smithfield Foods, JBS SA

Wednesday, March 26

Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem scheduled to speak.
Durable Goods Orders

Thursday, March 27

Jobless Claims | GDP | International Trade in Goods | Wholesale Inventories | Pending Home Sales Index | KC Fed Manufacturing
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, March 28
· Personal Income & Outlays | Consumer Sentiment

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

USDA on Tuesday will release of its food price update, with the focus being on egg prices.

Monday, March 24

Ag reports and events:

JRC MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
Export Inspections